Late Rally Lifts Stocks; Volume Pathetic

There were any number of good reasons for stocks to take a breather on Thursday, but, a vicious late-day rally sent all of the indices into positive territory, a place none of them had been since the opening minutes of trading. The Dow itself gained 84 points in the final 35 minutes, after having been down all day. The major indices closed right at their highs of the day.

While the markets have been buoyant of late, pressures continue to build as measures of the strength of the US economy increasingly show that any recovery is going to a slow, bumpy and uneven process. More and more economists are lowering forecasts for the remainder of 2010 and trimming projections for 2011 in the face of increased taxation and regulation on a wide swath of industries.

New unemployment claims totaled 472,000, well above consensus estimates of 450,000 and an increase of 12,000 from the prior week, confirming that labor markets remain soft.

Another deflationary signal was flashed by the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), which declined 0.2% month-over-month while core prices improved 0.1% month-over-month.

There's also a very basic measurement known as valuation, something most stocks are now testing the upper ranges of. With earnings season still three to four weeks in the distance, the Wall Street insider swindlers are making as much of a quick buck before reports begin to flow from the board rooms to the street.

One can be relatively assured that stocks will begin another leg to the downside no later than Tuesday of next week, barring any unforeseen, spectacularly-positive events.

Stock investing is quickly becoming more a process of timing and luck than fundamental analysis. Traders are in and out of stocks with blinding speed as compared to the old buy-and-hold days, which now seem just a quaint memory of a time when financial markets were heavily regulated, and wealth accumulation was a slow and relatively safe process.

Today's traders face more challenges than at any time in memory. Between insider knowledge, pre-and-post-market maneuvers and the advent of push-button trading via computer or cell phone, investors have to be quick on their feet and use tight stops just to stay even.

Thinking along these lines, it may be time for pension fund managers to reassess their strategies and convert more assets out of stocks - at least US and European ones - and into more stable investments as these traders are unable to move the huge blocks they hold with any kind of price assurances.

Dow 10,434.17, +24.71 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,307.16, +1.23 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,116.03, +1.42 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 6,982.02, +5.94 (0.09%)

Advancing issues narrowly beat back decliners, 3220-3183; new highs continued their recent string of wins over new lows, 141-60, but volume on the day was absolutely pathetic - the lowest in well over a month's time - especially considering that Friday is an options expiration quadruple-witching day. Normally, volume is very high leading into these events, so something is not right about this entire set-up.

NYSE Volume 4,973,262,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,654,591,250.00

Oil slipped 88 cents, to $76.79, but the precious metals showed strength, which only amplifies the discordance in equities. Gold gained $18.20, to $1,247.50. Silver added 34 cents, to $18.77.

Gold and stocks have generally been trading in opposite directions, though in recent months, that relationship has faded. Eventually, the two will collide, though, with the value of the Dow equal to anywhere from one to four ounces of gold. Currently, the ratio stands at 8.36 ounces to one unit of the Dow. Within 18 months, expect two things to occur: Gold will reach $1.500 per ounce and the Dow will smash through to the downside of 6000. It's almost an inevitability. Here's a little story about how to trade the gold and the Dow over the very long term, by Gary North, a guy who knows a thing or two about stocks and gold.

Tony Hayward, BP CEO, was grilled and pilloried on Capitol Hill this afternoon, as he should be. The remains of the Deepwater Horizon continue to spew thousands of barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico, the situation growing worse every day. Correcting our story from yesterday, it's being reported that BP will not pay dividends for the remainder of the year, not just the upcoming quarter. That's three quarters of British pensioners going without their dividend checks, but, as is the case with stocks, that risk was always there. While some may call the BP situation a "Black Swan" event, they've literally created any number of black pelicans and other specie of the region and should not survive as a going concern.

Nothing Much

As one can plainly see from the headline numbers below, not much happened on stock markets today. Thin trade in a fairly tight range was the order of the day as BP agreed to set aside $20 billion in a separate escrow fund to pay for costs associated with the Gulf of Mexico spill. The company also announced it would not pay out the upcoming quarterly dividend.

Dow 10,409.46, +4.69 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,305.93, +0.05 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,114.61, -0.62 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 6,976.08, -13.80 (0.20%)

Decliners finished ahead of advancers, 3756-2723. New highs bettered new lows, 154-72. Volume was light.

NYSE Volume 5,653,750,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,946,411,125

Crude oil futures gained 73 cents, to $77.67. Gold lost $3.90, finishing at $1,229.30. Silver shed 14 cents, to $18.43.

I found out how to legally force banks to walk away from your mortgage. It's called "right of recision." Interesting stuff.

Nice Gains on No News is Not Good?

Today's spectacular run by US equities will be viewed by most as a positive, though there are probably many who believe it's a chimera, that like most rallies, it is only temporary.

Problems and imbalances persist throughout the global financial space, but that does not preclude traders and brokers from doing their jobs, one of which apparently was to push the S&P through it's 200-day moving average. Mission accomplished.

What will be more interesting to watch is whether the averages continue to rally and stay above the magic 200-day MA level. It surely will be tested for support in the near future. Not much to read into one day's data, as normal, though the case for a counter-trend has developed.

Dow 10,404.77, +213.88 (2.10%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88, +61.92 (2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23, +25.60 (2.35%)
NYSE Composite 6,989.88, +171.91 (2.52%)

Advancers led decliners, 5413-1177. New highs overarched new lows, 149-55. Volume was in the high end of moderate.

NYSE Volume 5,299,700,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,257,801,750

Oil was up $1.82, to $76.94. As much as I hate to admit it, the view is for oil to remain in this range throughout the summer months. $85 should prove a high side of the range, though gas prices over $3.00 are a drag on productivity, a tax on the middle class. Gold rebounded $9.90, to $1,233.20. Silver galloped ahead, up another 17 cents, to $18.57.

The mid-week void in news was helpful to equity markets, especially considering that nothing new occurred to shake things to the downside. With the news cycle so contrived and difficult to believe at times, there's little doubt that more issues will emerge to drive confidence into the ground. Economic numbers, such as tomorrow's housing starts and PPI, both due out at 8:30 am, may have a chilling effect. Producer prices should be flat to down, a real bummer for the inflationist camp, and for stocks.

Deflation does, on the other hand, offer some benefit for US consumers, most of whom haven't had a rise in income over the past decade or longer. Purchasing power is firmly in the grips of the consumer, but they're actually using it prudently, another cog in the deflation wheel.

GET OUT AND STAY OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET

OK, so what was the excuse for today's failed rally? Technical? Fundamentals? Fear? Greed?

Whatever was the case, functional real markets do not act in this manner. Rigged, useless, casino-style markets in heavy secular bull trends do.

The stock market used to be a place where an INVESTOR could safely place his or her money and expect a reasonable return. Nowadays, it's just crap shoot. The dotcom bubble proved that. If you needed more proof, how about the 52-month bull market during the Bush administration's failed war in Iraq? Or maybe you'd be more convinced by the absurdity of the 2008 crash, complete with bank bailouts and exorbitant executive pay while average Americans' wages stalled or declined and corporate America shed six million jobs.

If you haven't been convinced that these markets are for professional gamblers only, and not for individuals or pension funds, maybe the sharp rally off the March '09 lows brought you some measure of faith.

If so, YOU ARE A MORON. MORON. STUPID, IGNORANT, IDIOT.

Toady's market was a perfect example of a trader's market, a casino, though the odds are stacked more favorably toward big players and insiders, so an unfair casino, a controlled crap game with loaded dice and blackjack tables with magic drawers which produce mystery cards for the dealers.

Anybody with a red cent invested in the stock market is simply throwing away their money. You may think you have an edge at some point. You will have profitable trades, but you cannot buy stock in a company based on fundamentals and hold it, collect dividend checks and still make a gain. Not in this market. Stocks with strong dividends are temporary. Their dividend yields improve as the price of shares decline, eroding your capital. It's a sucker's market, but the insiders are running out of suckers. Soon they will be eating off each other's own flesh.

Why was the Dow up 116 points early in the day? The talking heads on CNBC tell you that it was because fund managers buy on Monday. Well, if that's the case, they just had their asses handed to them, because whatever they bought early in the day is now lower in value because the insiders sold them off. Yes, since there are fewer suckers on which to feed, and since the bankers have had their way with taxpayer money via the government and need more, they are actively going after pension fund holdings through organized short selling and other tactics at which they are expert.

So, now you know why the market went up, and also why it went down.

Therefore, if you are a person with a pension fund which you think is going to provide for you during your "retirement" years, the crooks on Wall Street just took a little of that away today. Tomorrow, they will take a little more, and when the market crashes for good, later this year or early next year, or maybe in 2012 or 2013, you'll be told that your pension fund has no money and your retirement is going to SUCK OUT LOUD. You'll probably have to keep working until you're 80.

Deal with it. This is the new reality caused by decades of Americans trusting politicians and bankers with their life savings. They will steal all of it and leave you with nothing. The best advice I can offer - which I offered first in 2007 - is, if you have a 401k or other personal retirement account, to take it all out in cash, pay whatever penalty they're going to throw on you and put it in gold, silver. arable land, or tools of trade. Otherwise, like the government employees who are being led down a primrose path to absolute desolation, you will end up with nothing.

Dow 10,190.89, -20.18 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,243.96, +0.36 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,089.63, -1.97 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 6,817.97, +3.21 (0.05%)

Naturally, there were more advancing stocks than decliners and more new highs than new lows. That's how the ultimate financial con works. The volume was so absurdly low as to be laughable, but that's also how these expert crooks operate. They don't steal all of your money all at once. That would be too obvious. They take a little at a time. Some day's they even give you some of it back, so you'll stay in the game. That way, they get to take all of it, little by little, day by day, stock by stock.

NYSE Volume 5,173,854,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,902,072,875.00

Commodities were just as absurdly priced as stocks. Oil was up $1.34, to $75.12, but gold was down $5.60, to $1,223.30 and silver was ahead by 18 cents, to $18.40. Why? simple. The oil futures market is the most controlled, contrived, manipulated market ever invented, thinly traded and controlled by six or seven major interest groups. Gold is constantly being hammered down by Wall Street banks, particularly the House of Morgan criminal enterprise, and silver, well, who the hell knows? Id' say silver is probably one of the safest investments on the planet, especially if you're buying old US coins at melt value, though even that can prove risky. At least the coins will be worth something, like gold, forever, but without the constant interference from unscrupulous traders, central banks and the IMF.

I've been following stocks and studying economics for many years, and I can safely say that I've never seen stock markets so blatantly manipulated as I am seeing right now. Most stocks, even if they aren't already wickedly overvalued - which means nothing - are eventually only profit vehicles for Wall Street insiders. They'll crush a good stock for short term gain just as easily as they'll boost worthless shares. It's all about making a profit on a trade, not investing, these days.

I also heard today that the federal government wanted BP to open an escrow account to pay for the cleanup and associated costs in the Gulf of Mexico. I won't even bother to link to any story, but the number being throw around was $1 billion, which is so agonizingly low as to be considered off the table. Louisiana governor Booby Jindal (more than likely a phony name) said that any such fund should start at $5 billion.

Both figures are completely wrong. The costs of cleaning up the Gulf and paying the wages of the hundreds of thousands of people and businesses who have suffered economic hardship are going to top $100 billion, easily. BP - that's BRITISH PETROLEUM - should be out of business within six months, but it seems that our federal government is going to do everything within its power to save the company and screw over the taxpayers, AGAIN.

How much more will Americans take before they have had enough?

Sadly, more than anyone wishes to believe. The Americans of today are going to watch the utter destruction of the best democracy that ever existed on the planet, and, for the majority of them, they won't even raise an arm in anger.

Stocks Finish First Positive Week in Last Four

Thanks to the rally from nowhere, based upon nothing, that materialized on Thursday, all of the major equity indices will finish with their first weekly gain in the past four weeks.

Investors were stunned prior to the opening bell on Friday with a report on May retail sales that showed Americans spending at a rate 1.2% lower than in April. The news was another disconcerting data point for the bulls, coming just a week after the unnerving non farm payroll report which quite graphically demonstrated that the "recovery" had ceased creating jobs in the private sector, if it was even creating any at all prior to May.

The little piece of news wasn't at all expected by the expert economists who track - or, apparently guess at - these kinds of things, who were looking for a gain in retail sales in the neighborhood of 0.2%. The stark difference between expectations and reality points up just how juiced the media has been with all the phony recovery talk over the past six months.

Anybody who simply lives in an average American community can see for themselves that business conditions are not optimal. Stores in retail strip malls and spaces in enclosed malls go begging for tenants, jobs are hard to come by and state and local governments are dealing with budget deficits brought on by lower tax receipts and shrinking tax revenues, all effects of the recession and the lack of a powerful recovery.

Wall Street is about the only place in the country which seems to be of the opinion that all's well in the USA and the economy, though the recent declines in the market make clear that not everyone is euphoric over future prospects. The headwinds of future taxation, continued high unemployment and a critically ill housing market are beginning to take their tolls on even the most ardent bulls.

Strains in the European Union banking complex and the continuous flow of oil from deep beneath the Gulf of Mexico - putting thousands of shrimpers, clammers and fishermen out of work - certainly aren't helping matters.

As inexplicable as Thursday's rally was, today's late-day trade was equally out-of-the-blue. The Dow, which had, along with the S&P, spent nearly the entire session in negative territory, tacked on 75 points in the final three-quarters of the hour, helping push all the indices into plus territory. Once again, organized trading by a consortium of insiders or perhaps machine-driven, stocks ran counter-trend late in the day.

Dow 10,211.07, +38.54 (0.38%)
NASDAQ 2,243.60, +24.89 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,091.60, +4.76 (0.44%)
NYSE Composite 6,814.76, +31.25 (0.46%)

In spite of the late-session tape-painting, advancing issues finished well ahead of decliners, 4619-1830. New highs broke through above new lows, 125-76, in a temporary reversal of the trend. Volume, however, was absolutely pathetic, the lowest in months.

NYSE Volume 4,672,237,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,731,446,375.00

Crude oil sold off, losing $1.49, to $73.99, which made sense in light of the sour retail figures. Precious metals were split, with gold gaining $5.70, to $1,228.10, while silver dipped 12 cents, to $18.24.

Looking ahead to next week, trading decisions will be led largely by out-of-market forces, those being the situation the in Gulf, the debt contagion in Europe and the advancement of the Financial Reform bill in congress, though mid-week economic data, including PPI, CPI, industrial production, capacity utilization and housing starts may provide some surprises.