Once again the supposed "Masters of the Universe," sitting high inside their glassy offices in lower Manhattan, managed to persuade stocks to gap higher at the open. These geniuses then managed to sell managed positions all day long at a profit as the faux rally fizzled before the collective public eyes.
The Dow Jones Industrials were up nearly 150 points by 10:00 am, but stocks finished close to their lows of the day, actually rallying 50 points in the final minutes of trading to produce an artificial, moderately-lower close.
This is what the US stock markets have become, the paradise of insider traders and the laughing stock of the world. The "Masters of the Universe" are about to go down in flames lit with worthless paper currencies, backed by nothing more than the good word of scoundrels, cheats, liars and thieves.
Inexorably, stocks will lose value over time during any secular bear market, current company - which began in late summer, 2007 - included. daily fluctuations with accompanying conflicting internal data, such as today's, are trademarks of primary trend bear markets.
Dow 10,442.41, -8.23 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,289.09, -20.71 (0.90%)
S&P 500 1,113.20, 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 6,978.86, -9.38 (0.13%)
Volume was moderate to low, but decliners far outnumbered advancing issues, 3986-2577, though the number of new highs, goosed by the mammoth opening head-fake, outweighed the new lows, 229-77. It is just this kind on non-confirmation and divergence that spells bear market in simple terms. The session was also an engulfing event, with the highs and lows exceeding those of the previous day, a sure set-up for an immediate market turn.
NYSE Volume 5,192,862,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,916,218,625.00
By deceiving most of the US market into believing that n upward revaluation of the Yuan was a positive for the Americas, the Wall Street insider swine managed to create a perfect selling opportunity for already-overpriced stocks they desperately sought to unload. It is why market-opening gaps - higher or lower - are never of any benefit to small investors, who all-too-often buy into these fake rallies and are subsequently left holding positions of lesser value by the end of the day.
Today's result was garden-variety manipulation, nothing that hasn't been seen countless times over the past three years, though it surely is a signal to get out of stocks with all due urgency.
Crude oil continued it's range-bound run higher, up 64 cents, to $77.82. Meanwhile, precious metals fell precipitously, with gold off by $17.50, to $1,239.70, and silver losing 73 cents, backing down to $18.80 per ounce.
In a rational world, with stocks down, the metals would likely rise, but there is nothing even remotely-resembling rationality in global markets. Nations, central banks and money center banks continue to pile more debt upon existing debt, as truly an unsustainable condition as that which preceded and touched off the crisis of 2008-09.
Paper currency is upon the deathbed, but gold and silver - viable alternatives - are being maintained (controlled, manipulated) at prices anywhere from 30-150% lower than true market value.
Like a stick of dynamite in an untended mine, all it is going to take is somebody or something to light the fuse for the entire global financial system to tumble into a nightmarish decline.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Friday, June 18, 2010
Quad-Witching Became a Quad-Whimper
Quietly ending one of the more unusual weeks on Wall Street, Friday's normally highly-anticipating quadruple witching (market index futures, market index options, stock options and stock futures expiring) ended with abnormally light volume over the final two trading days.
This is a disconcerting episode for traders, as volatile activity is the norm on these days, and the lack of volume suggests that the market is experiencing a severe lack of confidence, even among high-risk types who usually deal in these issues. Also to be considered is the quality of Tuesday's exceptional rally (the Dow gained 214 points), in that much of the options trading which normally could have held until later in the week, was actually conducted on this one, seminal session, making more than just a few traders wonder exactly why stocks were so sought-after on just that one day, as the rest of the week was flat and devoid of velocity.
The consensus being positive on that one day, and then nothing, brings up some interesting propositions, none of them particularly positive going forward. Were insiders moving early to avoid what they might consider an imminent turn? Was the rally thus concocted wholly on the backs of options and futures trades, rendering any gains as temporary flights of fancy? Could this just be a sign of the times, with Summer fast approaching, traders simply lost interest?
Supposing the latter of those preceding questions to be the best of a bad lot, good reasons for owning stocks generally have not appeared. Thus, with everyone cautious, the potential for a panic run on the sell side could occur out of thin air, just like much of the funds used to purchase stocks in the first place.
This kind of sentiment also bears the deflationary trademark, in which buyers will defer purchases, thinking prices will be lower tomorrow, the next day, the day after that, and so on, and, in that regard, we are in complete harmony with the instinct of the herd. Deflation manifests itself in many ways, but one clearly recognizable feature is sluggish trade, and if this week's action can't be described as sluggish, then nothing can.
As I've said previously, the market has three to four more weeks of waiting for 2nd quarter earnings reports, and the void may be filled with sell orders or simply a lack of meaningful movement. Whether this analysis is correct or mere whistling in the wind will be fairly known by the end of trading on Tuesday of next week. The market is seeking direction and the initial two days after witching days of any variety are generally reserved for reloading, shoring up strong positions and shedding weaker ones.
Dow 10,450.64, +16.47 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,309.80, +2.64 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,117.51, +1.47 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 6,988.24, +6.20 (0.09%)
Advancing issues slipped past decliners again, 3615-2861. New highs beat back new lows, 160-77.
NYSE Volume 5,356,428,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,044,128,250
Crude oil for July delivery gained 39 cents, to $77.18. Gold made a new high, gaining $9.70, to $1,257.20, while silver was also impressive, adding 41 cents, to $19.18.
This is a disconcerting episode for traders, as volatile activity is the norm on these days, and the lack of volume suggests that the market is experiencing a severe lack of confidence, even among high-risk types who usually deal in these issues. Also to be considered is the quality of Tuesday's exceptional rally (the Dow gained 214 points), in that much of the options trading which normally could have held until later in the week, was actually conducted on this one, seminal session, making more than just a few traders wonder exactly why stocks were so sought-after on just that one day, as the rest of the week was flat and devoid of velocity.
The consensus being positive on that one day, and then nothing, brings up some interesting propositions, none of them particularly positive going forward. Were insiders moving early to avoid what they might consider an imminent turn? Was the rally thus concocted wholly on the backs of options and futures trades, rendering any gains as temporary flights of fancy? Could this just be a sign of the times, with Summer fast approaching, traders simply lost interest?
Supposing the latter of those preceding questions to be the best of a bad lot, good reasons for owning stocks generally have not appeared. Thus, with everyone cautious, the potential for a panic run on the sell side could occur out of thin air, just like much of the funds used to purchase stocks in the first place.
This kind of sentiment also bears the deflationary trademark, in which buyers will defer purchases, thinking prices will be lower tomorrow, the next day, the day after that, and so on, and, in that regard, we are in complete harmony with the instinct of the herd. Deflation manifests itself in many ways, but one clearly recognizable feature is sluggish trade, and if this week's action can't be described as sluggish, then nothing can.
As I've said previously, the market has three to four more weeks of waiting for 2nd quarter earnings reports, and the void may be filled with sell orders or simply a lack of meaningful movement. Whether this analysis is correct or mere whistling in the wind will be fairly known by the end of trading on Tuesday of next week. The market is seeking direction and the initial two days after witching days of any variety are generally reserved for reloading, shoring up strong positions and shedding weaker ones.
Dow 10,450.64, +16.47 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,309.80, +2.64 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,117.51, +1.47 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 6,988.24, +6.20 (0.09%)
Advancing issues slipped past decliners again, 3615-2861. New highs beat back new lows, 160-77.
NYSE Volume 5,356,428,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,044,128,250
Crude oil for July delivery gained 39 cents, to $77.18. Gold made a new high, gaining $9.70, to $1,257.20, while silver was also impressive, adding 41 cents, to $19.18.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Late Rally Lifts Stocks; Volume Pathetic
There were any number of good reasons for stocks to take a breather on Thursday, but, a vicious late-day rally sent all of the indices into positive territory, a place none of them had been since the opening minutes of trading. The Dow itself gained 84 points in the final 35 minutes, after having been down all day. The major indices closed right at their highs of the day.
While the markets have been buoyant of late, pressures continue to build as measures of the strength of the US economy increasingly show that any recovery is going to a slow, bumpy and uneven process. More and more economists are lowering forecasts for the remainder of 2010 and trimming projections for 2011 in the face of increased taxation and regulation on a wide swath of industries.
New unemployment claims totaled 472,000, well above consensus estimates of 450,000 and an increase of 12,000 from the prior week, confirming that labor markets remain soft.
Another deflationary signal was flashed by the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), which declined 0.2% month-over-month while core prices improved 0.1% month-over-month.
There's also a very basic measurement known as valuation, something most stocks are now testing the upper ranges of. With earnings season still three to four weeks in the distance, the Wall Street insider swindlers are making as much of a quick buck before reports begin to flow from the board rooms to the street.
One can be relatively assured that stocks will begin another leg to the downside no later than Tuesday of next week, barring any unforeseen, spectacularly-positive events.
Stock investing is quickly becoming more a process of timing and luck than fundamental analysis. Traders are in and out of stocks with blinding speed as compared to the old buy-and-hold days, which now seem just a quaint memory of a time when financial markets were heavily regulated, and wealth accumulation was a slow and relatively safe process.
Today's traders face more challenges than at any time in memory. Between insider knowledge, pre-and-post-market maneuvers and the advent of push-button trading via computer or cell phone, investors have to be quick on their feet and use tight stops just to stay even.
Thinking along these lines, it may be time for pension fund managers to reassess their strategies and convert more assets out of stocks - at least US and European ones - and into more stable investments as these traders are unable to move the huge blocks they hold with any kind of price assurances.
Dow 10,434.17, +24.71 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,307.16, +1.23 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,116.03, +1.42 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 6,982.02, +5.94 (0.09%)
Advancing issues narrowly beat back decliners, 3220-3183; new highs continued their recent string of wins over new lows, 141-60, but volume on the day was absolutely pathetic - the lowest in well over a month's time - especially considering that Friday is an options expiration quadruple-witching day. Normally, volume is very high leading into these events, so something is not right about this entire set-up.
NYSE Volume 4,973,262,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,654,591,250.00
Oil slipped 88 cents, to $76.79, but the precious metals showed strength, which only amplifies the discordance in equities. Gold gained $18.20, to $1,247.50. Silver added 34 cents, to $18.77.
Gold and stocks have generally been trading in opposite directions, though in recent months, that relationship has faded. Eventually, the two will collide, though, with the value of the Dow equal to anywhere from one to four ounces of gold. Currently, the ratio stands at 8.36 ounces to one unit of the Dow. Within 18 months, expect two things to occur: Gold will reach $1.500 per ounce and the Dow will smash through to the downside of 6000. It's almost an inevitability. Here's a little story about how to trade the gold and the Dow over the very long term, by Gary North, a guy who knows a thing or two about stocks and gold.
Tony Hayward, BP CEO, was grilled and pilloried on Capitol Hill this afternoon, as he should be. The remains of the Deepwater Horizon continue to spew thousands of barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico, the situation growing worse every day. Correcting our story from yesterday, it's being reported that BP will not pay dividends for the remainder of the year, not just the upcoming quarter. That's three quarters of British pensioners going without their dividend checks, but, as is the case with stocks, that risk was always there. While some may call the BP situation a "Black Swan" event, they've literally created any number of black pelicans and other specie of the region and should not survive as a going concern.
While the markets have been buoyant of late, pressures continue to build as measures of the strength of the US economy increasingly show that any recovery is going to a slow, bumpy and uneven process. More and more economists are lowering forecasts for the remainder of 2010 and trimming projections for 2011 in the face of increased taxation and regulation on a wide swath of industries.
New unemployment claims totaled 472,000, well above consensus estimates of 450,000 and an increase of 12,000 from the prior week, confirming that labor markets remain soft.
Another deflationary signal was flashed by the May Consumer Price Index (CPI), which declined 0.2% month-over-month while core prices improved 0.1% month-over-month.
There's also a very basic measurement known as valuation, something most stocks are now testing the upper ranges of. With earnings season still three to four weeks in the distance, the Wall Street insider swindlers are making as much of a quick buck before reports begin to flow from the board rooms to the street.
One can be relatively assured that stocks will begin another leg to the downside no later than Tuesday of next week, barring any unforeseen, spectacularly-positive events.
Stock investing is quickly becoming more a process of timing and luck than fundamental analysis. Traders are in and out of stocks with blinding speed as compared to the old buy-and-hold days, which now seem just a quaint memory of a time when financial markets were heavily regulated, and wealth accumulation was a slow and relatively safe process.
Today's traders face more challenges than at any time in memory. Between insider knowledge, pre-and-post-market maneuvers and the advent of push-button trading via computer or cell phone, investors have to be quick on their feet and use tight stops just to stay even.
Thinking along these lines, it may be time for pension fund managers to reassess their strategies and convert more assets out of stocks - at least US and European ones - and into more stable investments as these traders are unable to move the huge blocks they hold with any kind of price assurances.
Dow 10,434.17, +24.71 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,307.16, +1.23 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,116.03, +1.42 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 6,982.02, +5.94 (0.09%)
Advancing issues narrowly beat back decliners, 3220-3183; new highs continued their recent string of wins over new lows, 141-60, but volume on the day was absolutely pathetic - the lowest in well over a month's time - especially considering that Friday is an options expiration quadruple-witching day. Normally, volume is very high leading into these events, so something is not right about this entire set-up.
NYSE Volume 4,973,262,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 1,654,591,250.00
Oil slipped 88 cents, to $76.79, but the precious metals showed strength, which only amplifies the discordance in equities. Gold gained $18.20, to $1,247.50. Silver added 34 cents, to $18.77.
Gold and stocks have generally been trading in opposite directions, though in recent months, that relationship has faded. Eventually, the two will collide, though, with the value of the Dow equal to anywhere from one to four ounces of gold. Currently, the ratio stands at 8.36 ounces to one unit of the Dow. Within 18 months, expect two things to occur: Gold will reach $1.500 per ounce and the Dow will smash through to the downside of 6000. It's almost an inevitability. Here's a little story about how to trade the gold and the Dow over the very long term, by Gary North, a guy who knows a thing or two about stocks and gold.
Tony Hayward, BP CEO, was grilled and pilloried on Capitol Hill this afternoon, as he should be. The remains of the Deepwater Horizon continue to spew thousands of barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico, the situation growing worse every day. Correcting our story from yesterday, it's being reported that BP will not pay dividends for the remainder of the year, not just the upcoming quarter. That's three quarters of British pensioners going without their dividend checks, but, as is the case with stocks, that risk was always there. While some may call the BP situation a "Black Swan" event, they've literally created any number of black pelicans and other specie of the region and should not survive as a going concern.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Nothing Much
As one can plainly see from the headline numbers below, not much happened on stock markets today. Thin trade in a fairly tight range was the order of the day as BP agreed to set aside $20 billion in a separate escrow fund to pay for costs associated with the Gulf of Mexico spill. The company also announced it would not pay out the upcoming quarterly dividend.
Dow 10,409.46, +4.69 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,305.93, +0.05 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,114.61, -0.62 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 6,976.08, -13.80 (0.20%)
Decliners finished ahead of advancers, 3756-2723. New highs bettered new lows, 154-72. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 5,653,750,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,946,411,125
Crude oil futures gained 73 cents, to $77.67. Gold lost $3.90, finishing at $1,229.30. Silver shed 14 cents, to $18.43.
I found out how to legally force banks to walk away from your mortgage. It's called "right of recision." Interesting stuff.
Dow 10,409.46, +4.69 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,305.93, +0.05 (0.00%)
S&P 500 1,114.61, -0.62 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 6,976.08, -13.80 (0.20%)
Decliners finished ahead of advancers, 3756-2723. New highs bettered new lows, 154-72. Volume was light.
NYSE Volume 5,653,750,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,946,411,125
Crude oil futures gained 73 cents, to $77.67. Gold lost $3.90, finishing at $1,229.30. Silver shed 14 cents, to $18.43.
I found out how to legally force banks to walk away from your mortgage. It's called "right of recision." Interesting stuff.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Nice Gains on No News is Not Good?
Today's spectacular run by US equities will be viewed by most as a positive, though there are probably many who believe it's a chimera, that like most rallies, it is only temporary.
Problems and imbalances persist throughout the global financial space, but that does not preclude traders and brokers from doing their jobs, one of which apparently was to push the S&P through it's 200-day moving average. Mission accomplished.
What will be more interesting to watch is whether the averages continue to rally and stay above the magic 200-day MA level. It surely will be tested for support in the near future. Not much to read into one day's data, as normal, though the case for a counter-trend has developed.
Dow 10,404.77, +213.88 (2.10%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88, +61.92 (2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23, +25.60 (2.35%)
NYSE Composite 6,989.88, +171.91 (2.52%)
Advancers led decliners, 5413-1177. New highs overarched new lows, 149-55. Volume was in the high end of moderate.
NYSE Volume 5,299,700,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,257,801,750
Oil was up $1.82, to $76.94. As much as I hate to admit it, the view is for oil to remain in this range throughout the summer months. $85 should prove a high side of the range, though gas prices over $3.00 are a drag on productivity, a tax on the middle class. Gold rebounded $9.90, to $1,233.20. Silver galloped ahead, up another 17 cents, to $18.57.
The mid-week void in news was helpful to equity markets, especially considering that nothing new occurred to shake things to the downside. With the news cycle so contrived and difficult to believe at times, there's little doubt that more issues will emerge to drive confidence into the ground. Economic numbers, such as tomorrow's housing starts and PPI, both due out at 8:30 am, may have a chilling effect. Producer prices should be flat to down, a real bummer for the inflationist camp, and for stocks.
Deflation does, on the other hand, offer some benefit for US consumers, most of whom haven't had a rise in income over the past decade or longer. Purchasing power is firmly in the grips of the consumer, but they're actually using it prudently, another cog in the deflation wheel.
Problems and imbalances persist throughout the global financial space, but that does not preclude traders and brokers from doing their jobs, one of which apparently was to push the S&P through it's 200-day moving average. Mission accomplished.
What will be more interesting to watch is whether the averages continue to rally and stay above the magic 200-day MA level. It surely will be tested for support in the near future. Not much to read into one day's data, as normal, though the case for a counter-trend has developed.
Dow 10,404.77, +213.88 (2.10%)
NASDAQ 2,305.88, +61.92 (2.76%)
S&P 500 1,115.23, +25.60 (2.35%)
NYSE Composite 6,989.88, +171.91 (2.52%)
Advancers led decliners, 5413-1177. New highs overarched new lows, 149-55. Volume was in the high end of moderate.
NYSE Volume 5,299,700,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,257,801,750
Oil was up $1.82, to $76.94. As much as I hate to admit it, the view is for oil to remain in this range throughout the summer months. $85 should prove a high side of the range, though gas prices over $3.00 are a drag on productivity, a tax on the middle class. Gold rebounded $9.90, to $1,233.20. Silver galloped ahead, up another 17 cents, to $18.57.
The mid-week void in news was helpful to equity markets, especially considering that nothing new occurred to shake things to the downside. With the news cycle so contrived and difficult to believe at times, there's little doubt that more issues will emerge to drive confidence into the ground. Economic numbers, such as tomorrow's housing starts and PPI, both due out at 8:30 am, may have a chilling effect. Producer prices should be flat to down, a real bummer for the inflationist camp, and for stocks.
Deflation does, on the other hand, offer some benefit for US consumers, most of whom haven't had a rise in income over the past decade or longer. Purchasing power is firmly in the grips of the consumer, but they're actually using it prudently, another cog in the deflation wheel.
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