I suppose this post should be dedicated to Ross Perot, whose words inspired today's title.
Ross Perot was the last of the great third party candidates for president way back in 1992 when he intoned those fateful words as part of his closing remarks during a debate with then-president George H.W. Bush and future leader of the free world, William Jefferson Clinton. The short video clip is embedded below.
Perot was describing the flight of US jobs to Mexico and boy, was he ever right. Not only did jobs flee the land of the free to South of the border, but eventually entire factories were dismantled and shipped to China, where wages were ever cheaper.
Now, with Washington on its knees before the giant banking interests of Wall Street and begging the Chinese to keep buying our Treasury bonds, the path has come full circle. America is bankrupt, without a reliable manufacturing base, and its citizens are being sucked dry by banks, utilities (many owned by foreign corporations, thanks in no small part to Senator "Sell Out" Schumer of New York), and giant multi-national corporations which could care less whether or not anyone has a job, only whether they can pay the cable bill or shop at Wal-Mart or finance the purchase of a brand-spanking new car from one of our bailed-out auto companies.
There are no jobs, though there's money spread across the fruited plain thanks to our glorious benefactors in Washington, who seem intent on putting all Americans on the dole. There are, however, many corporations whose shares are traded publicly on Wall Street, though interest in many of them seems to be waning, or, possibly all worn out.
Trading volumes reached new levels of apathy today, especially on the NASDAQ, recording its lowest volume of the year and lowest since December 30 of last year. It was abysmal. Maybe that giant sucking sound is the sound of your 401k plan going to an early death, prior to your retirement, or the vastly underfunded pension plans of many corporations and municipalities going down the tubes in a giant "whoosh."
As for yesterday's options-inspired rally, well, that's over, pending the release of initial unemployment claims tomorrow morning.
Dow 10,415.54, +9.69 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,215.70, +6.26 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,094.16, +1.62 (0.15%)
NYSE Composite 6,968.08, +8.29 (0.12%)
Advancers beat decliners by a diminishing margin at the closing bell, 3511-2875. New highs held their own against new lows, 315-86. Volume was absurdly low. The insiders will begin the process of gnawing at each other's flesh presently.
NASDAQ Volume 1,547,742,875
NYSE Volume 4,239,987,500
Oil finished lower again, down 35 cents, to $75.42, though it traded below $74 earlier in the day. Gold gained $3.10, to $1,229.70. Silver finished down 20 cents, at $18.39.
That giant sucking sound may just be the sound of traders leaving Wall Street and joining the ranks of the unemployed. The double dip is on the way.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Why Stocks Were Up, in One Word
I'm going to keep today's notes brief, since it's a beautiful summer day and the market is, as usual, defying all logic.
Were stocks ahead because key economic data was better than expected? Possibly. The PPI for July was up 0.2%, with the core up a whopping 0.3%, allaying fears of deflation for the moment. Housing Starts and building permits were somewhat of a disappointment, however, though July industrial production was up by a full percentage point and Capacity Utilization stood at 74.8%, up from 74.1% in June.
Those numbers were benign, and volume was once again extremely sluggish, so there's only one reason stocks went up today: options. Or, more accurately, the expiration of stock options this Friday.
In recent trading - over the past 7 months which we bothered to check - the major indices have almost always shown some kind of gains early in the week leading up to options expiration, like clockwork, except in May, when stocks and the economy were actually showing real strain from problems. It's pretty simple, and an easy strategy for market-timers. But, is it investor sentiment or manipulation, and, does it matter?
Short term, trading moves matter, especially when you have money at risk, as in the options market. Long term, the blips obtained in weeks of options expirations or the weeks preceding them are more noise than valuable data points. As for whether the pattern arises out of investor sentiment or manipulation, which have been becoming more synonymous of late, the latter seems a too-obvious choice, but there it is, laid out for everyone to see.
Supposing you had some money riding on certain strike points, or you could make money on gains, and, if you were a major investment house, like Goldman Sachs, BofA, et. al., with tons of excess capital sitting around gathering dust, wouldn't it behoove you to invest some of that idle capital in the stocks you need to rise, thus ensuring short term gains in your options trading? Absolutely. Do the big firms do that? Positively.
While they call it astute trading discipline, others might figure it a little less than honest poker, but, since options are highly unregulated conveyances, nobody bothers to make a squeal about it. For the investor, it makes for a simple calendar rule: buy stocks near the end of the month or early in the month, preferably the first week, because the price you pay will almost always be lower than it will approaching options expiration.
And that's why stocks were up today, and the only reason why. For more proof, just take a gander at the volumes, which were again at "help me, I'm drowning" levels. The low volume regime persists, so higher closes, especially major advances, like today's, should be weighted accordingly. Better yet, compare the highs of the day to the close. A bit of a selloff there in the last hour, the tell-tale sign of options sales and/or redemption, and plenty of play on the intra-day movement. The Dow lost about 70 points in the final hour. Healthy markets don't do that, they close at or near the highs. Conclusion: this was yet another manipulated trading move; market weakness still exists; nobody is really buying.
Dow 10,405.85, +103.84 (1.01%)
NASDAQ 2,209.44, +27.57 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,092.54, +13.16 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 6,959.79, +88.21 (1.28%)
Naturally, advancers beat decliners handily, 5008-1490. New highs soared past new lows, 335-80.
NASDAQ Volume 1,631,266,000
NYSE Volume 4,241,545,500
Commodities were mostly higher. Oil traded up by 53 cents, to $75.77. Gold gained $2.10, to $1,226.60. Silver added 17 cents to $18.59.
Stocks should continue this pattern for another day or two, probably peaking on Thursday, which would be a great time to go short the market. By Monday of next week, everything should be trading at lower levels, if history proves correct.
Were stocks ahead because key economic data was better than expected? Possibly. The PPI for July was up 0.2%, with the core up a whopping 0.3%, allaying fears of deflation for the moment. Housing Starts and building permits were somewhat of a disappointment, however, though July industrial production was up by a full percentage point and Capacity Utilization stood at 74.8%, up from 74.1% in June.
Those numbers were benign, and volume was once again extremely sluggish, so there's only one reason stocks went up today: options. Or, more accurately, the expiration of stock options this Friday.
In recent trading - over the past 7 months which we bothered to check - the major indices have almost always shown some kind of gains early in the week leading up to options expiration, like clockwork, except in May, when stocks and the economy were actually showing real strain from problems. It's pretty simple, and an easy strategy for market-timers. But, is it investor sentiment or manipulation, and, does it matter?
Short term, trading moves matter, especially when you have money at risk, as in the options market. Long term, the blips obtained in weeks of options expirations or the weeks preceding them are more noise than valuable data points. As for whether the pattern arises out of investor sentiment or manipulation, which have been becoming more synonymous of late, the latter seems a too-obvious choice, but there it is, laid out for everyone to see.
Supposing you had some money riding on certain strike points, or you could make money on gains, and, if you were a major investment house, like Goldman Sachs, BofA, et. al., with tons of excess capital sitting around gathering dust, wouldn't it behoove you to invest some of that idle capital in the stocks you need to rise, thus ensuring short term gains in your options trading? Absolutely. Do the big firms do that? Positively.
While they call it astute trading discipline, others might figure it a little less than honest poker, but, since options are highly unregulated conveyances, nobody bothers to make a squeal about it. For the investor, it makes for a simple calendar rule: buy stocks near the end of the month or early in the month, preferably the first week, because the price you pay will almost always be lower than it will approaching options expiration.
And that's why stocks were up today, and the only reason why. For more proof, just take a gander at the volumes, which were again at "help me, I'm drowning" levels. The low volume regime persists, so higher closes, especially major advances, like today's, should be weighted accordingly. Better yet, compare the highs of the day to the close. A bit of a selloff there in the last hour, the tell-tale sign of options sales and/or redemption, and plenty of play on the intra-day movement. The Dow lost about 70 points in the final hour. Healthy markets don't do that, they close at or near the highs. Conclusion: this was yet another manipulated trading move; market weakness still exists; nobody is really buying.
Dow 10,405.85, +103.84 (1.01%)
NASDAQ 2,209.44, +27.57 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,092.54, +13.16 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 6,959.79, +88.21 (1.28%)
Naturally, advancers beat decliners handily, 5008-1490. New highs soared past new lows, 335-80.
NASDAQ Volume 1,631,266,000
NYSE Volume 4,241,545,500
Commodities were mostly higher. Oil traded up by 53 cents, to $75.77. Gold gained $2.10, to $1,226.60. Silver added 17 cents to $18.59.
Stocks should continue this pattern for another day or two, probably peaking on Thursday, which would be a great time to go short the market. By Monday of next week, everything should be trading at lower levels, if history proves correct.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Equities Remain Stuck in Liquidity Trap
What would you do if you threw a party and nobody showed up?
Well, that's how brokers on Wall Street must be feeling, because there's a serious lack of trading going on these days. For well over a week now, stocks have been stuck within the deafening silence of a liquidity trap, bought about by an overwhelming amount of distrust, absence of investable capital and uncertainty about the future.
Individual investors - and, to a growing degree, some fund managers - have found safety and serenity in the simplicity of cash. Others have opted for money market returns of less than one percent, still more have waded into the refreshing bond waters or ventured into gold or other commodities.
Stocks, for better or worse, have fallen out of favor in the aftermath of the 08-09 meltdown, aided by government programs which were designed to spur demand but instead have only created one-off events, like the cash for clunkers fiasco or the failed stimulus that gave $8000 tax breaks to home owners.
Sure, the people who took advantage of government largesse got their new cars or their new homes, more than likely at inflated prices (we'll know for sure in another 12-18 months), but there was no appreciable overall gain in new buyers. Maybe most folks just like keeping what they have, secure in the fact that - especially in the case of cars - it's paid for or, with a house, knowing what it's roughly worth.
Still others are stuck with properties at inflated values. Recent home-buyers of 2003-2007 vintage are nearly universally upside-down, stuck with payments on outrageous mortgages while the value of their real estate continues a precipitous decline.
In this disheveled state of affairs, the last thing on people's minds is putting more money into the stock market, either by buying individual stocks, mutual funds or increasing the funding of their 401k plan. The average American has gotten the message loud and clear: save and save more. Non-essential purchases are being put on hold more often and investment decisions are based upon more immediate needs rather than with a long-term perspective. Besides, there's a real feeling that Wall Street is rotten and crooked and that stocks, as they have gone nowhere for the past ten years, look more and more like losing propositions.
Trading volumes on the major exchanges have been in a prolonged decline, and even for August, the recent volumes speak of something more sinister and pernicious than simply everybody being on vacation. There's no excitement or impetus for stocks to rise, and Monday's trade was more than likely bolstered by a fresh infusion of cash from the banks and brokerages. The Dow dipped 70 points right at the open before a sudden reversal just minutes into the session.
Once the averages found a more suitable footing, they just churned in a narrow range of about 50 points on the Dow before another minor blip downward and another round of funding from the "masters of the universe" at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch, BofA's trading arm.
This is a very serious condition which is not going to be solved without another blood-letting in stocks. The absence of confidence has spread all the way from Main Street to Washington to the canyons of Wall Street and now it's locked in place. Until somebody proves that stocks are safe and the economy is really on a rebound (impossible), the direction will be down, down and then down some more. Today's minor gains are overshadowed by the paucity of trading.
Dow 10,302.01, -1.14 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,181.87, +8.39 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,079.38, +0.13 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 6,871.58, +10.54 (0.15%)
Advancing issues took command over decliners, 3980-2440. There were 311 new highs and 223 new lows, but nobody is really bothering to keep score. Volume reached a new low on Monday, below the abysmal numbers from the previous Monday, which was off-the-charts ugly. People simply aren't interested in stocks right now, and for many good reasons.
NASDAQ Volume 1,636,439,375
NYSE Volume 3,569,886,750
Oil was down again, losing 15 cents, to $75.24, but gold gained $9.60, to $1,224.50. Silver was also up, better by 32 cents, to $18.42.
There was some small economic data, including the NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index, which came in with a reading of 7.10 for August after a 5.8 posting in July. The index is stuck at extreme low levels, indicating very modest growth, if any, with falling prices and negative future outlooks. It's not a pretty picture and New York is one of the better-performing areas of the country.
Prior to the open Tuesday, a number of important economic indicators will be released, including July PPI, housing starts and building permits. The numbers are expected to be flat or even down from June, which is just the kind of news Wall Street does not need at this juncture.
The true picture being painted by this low-volume regime is one bereft of confidence and capital. Like just about everything else in the current climate, it is unsustainable for more than a very short period of time, one which will be coming to an abrupt end shortly.
Well, that's how brokers on Wall Street must be feeling, because there's a serious lack of trading going on these days. For well over a week now, stocks have been stuck within the deafening silence of a liquidity trap, bought about by an overwhelming amount of distrust, absence of investable capital and uncertainty about the future.
Individual investors - and, to a growing degree, some fund managers - have found safety and serenity in the simplicity of cash. Others have opted for money market returns of less than one percent, still more have waded into the refreshing bond waters or ventured into gold or other commodities.
Stocks, for better or worse, have fallen out of favor in the aftermath of the 08-09 meltdown, aided by government programs which were designed to spur demand but instead have only created one-off events, like the cash for clunkers fiasco or the failed stimulus that gave $8000 tax breaks to home owners.
Sure, the people who took advantage of government largesse got their new cars or their new homes, more than likely at inflated prices (we'll know for sure in another 12-18 months), but there was no appreciable overall gain in new buyers. Maybe most folks just like keeping what they have, secure in the fact that - especially in the case of cars - it's paid for or, with a house, knowing what it's roughly worth.
Still others are stuck with properties at inflated values. Recent home-buyers of 2003-2007 vintage are nearly universally upside-down, stuck with payments on outrageous mortgages while the value of their real estate continues a precipitous decline.
In this disheveled state of affairs, the last thing on people's minds is putting more money into the stock market, either by buying individual stocks, mutual funds or increasing the funding of their 401k plan. The average American has gotten the message loud and clear: save and save more. Non-essential purchases are being put on hold more often and investment decisions are based upon more immediate needs rather than with a long-term perspective. Besides, there's a real feeling that Wall Street is rotten and crooked and that stocks, as they have gone nowhere for the past ten years, look more and more like losing propositions.
Trading volumes on the major exchanges have been in a prolonged decline, and even for August, the recent volumes speak of something more sinister and pernicious than simply everybody being on vacation. There's no excitement or impetus for stocks to rise, and Monday's trade was more than likely bolstered by a fresh infusion of cash from the banks and brokerages. The Dow dipped 70 points right at the open before a sudden reversal just minutes into the session.
Once the averages found a more suitable footing, they just churned in a narrow range of about 50 points on the Dow before another minor blip downward and another round of funding from the "masters of the universe" at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch, BofA's trading arm.
This is a very serious condition which is not going to be solved without another blood-letting in stocks. The absence of confidence has spread all the way from Main Street to Washington to the canyons of Wall Street and now it's locked in place. Until somebody proves that stocks are safe and the economy is really on a rebound (impossible), the direction will be down, down and then down some more. Today's minor gains are overshadowed by the paucity of trading.
Dow 10,302.01, -1.14 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,181.87, +8.39 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,079.38, +0.13 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 6,871.58, +10.54 (0.15%)
Advancing issues took command over decliners, 3980-2440. There were 311 new highs and 223 new lows, but nobody is really bothering to keep score. Volume reached a new low on Monday, below the abysmal numbers from the previous Monday, which was off-the-charts ugly. People simply aren't interested in stocks right now, and for many good reasons.
NASDAQ Volume 1,636,439,375
NYSE Volume 3,569,886,750
Oil was down again, losing 15 cents, to $75.24, but gold gained $9.60, to $1,224.50. Silver was also up, better by 32 cents, to $18.42.
There was some small economic data, including the NY Fed's Empire Manufacturing Index, which came in with a reading of 7.10 for August after a 5.8 posting in July. The index is stuck at extreme low levels, indicating very modest growth, if any, with falling prices and negative future outlooks. It's not a pretty picture and New York is one of the better-performing areas of the country.
Prior to the open Tuesday, a number of important economic indicators will be released, including July PPI, housing starts and building permits. The numbers are expected to be flat or even down from June, which is just the kind of news Wall Street does not need at this juncture.
The true picture being painted by this low-volume regime is one bereft of confidence and capital. Like just about everything else in the current climate, it is unsustainable for more than a very short period of time, one which will be coming to an abrupt end shortly.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Sorry Finish for Stocks
It was one of the dullest weeks for trading stocks in memory, with volumes approaching 1990s levels or worse. The apparent lack of conviction, coupled with continued poor economic news contributed to a nasty decline on all the major averages.
Monday was the only positive finish of the week, so stocks have hit the skids four straight sessions. Today's volume figures were as low as Monday's, following three consecutive down days in which volumes improved each successive session.
The July CPI was bloated at a gain of 0.3%, which, when auto and gasoline sales were stripped out, turned into a -0.1%. Deflationary forces are ever-present, though tricky to track at this juncture. While some items are improving in price, others fall on slack demand. Persistent weakness in housing and stocks has spilled over into bonds, which are soaring if you're a seller, falling precipitously in yield. The 10 and 30-year are now sliding in tandem, offering multi-year low returns.
Dow 10,303.15, -16.80 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,173.48, -16.79 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,079.25, -4.36 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 6,861.04, -20.90 (0.30%)
With trading nearly ground to a halt, decliners beat back advancers by a healthy margin, 3847-2548, belying the headline figures. There were 258 new highs to 214 new lows, though the number of new 52-week lows on the NASDAQ was nearly six times that of new highs.
NASDAQ Volume 1,623,953,000
NYSE Volume 3,819,334,750
The lackluster equity trade seemed to ensnare commodities as well, with oil falling again, though down only 35 cents, t0 $75.39. Gold gained a slim dime, to $1,214.90, while silver added 4 cents, to $18.10.
It may be the middle of summer, when trading volumes are traditionally slow, but this week was probably the lowest volume week in a year marred by an absence of trading activity. Not only have individual investors headed to the safety to cash or bonds, but larger entities have trimmed their activity as well.
None of this bodes well going forward, and with good reason. The economy is managed by buffoons in Washington and crooks on Wall Street, to the benefit of almost nobody.
Monday was the only positive finish of the week, so stocks have hit the skids four straight sessions. Today's volume figures were as low as Monday's, following three consecutive down days in which volumes improved each successive session.
The July CPI was bloated at a gain of 0.3%, which, when auto and gasoline sales were stripped out, turned into a -0.1%. Deflationary forces are ever-present, though tricky to track at this juncture. While some items are improving in price, others fall on slack demand. Persistent weakness in housing and stocks has spilled over into bonds, which are soaring if you're a seller, falling precipitously in yield. The 10 and 30-year are now sliding in tandem, offering multi-year low returns.
Dow 10,303.15, -16.80 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,173.48, -16.79 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,079.25, -4.36 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 6,861.04, -20.90 (0.30%)
With trading nearly ground to a halt, decliners beat back advancers by a healthy margin, 3847-2548, belying the headline figures. There were 258 new highs to 214 new lows, though the number of new 52-week lows on the NASDAQ was nearly six times that of new highs.
NASDAQ Volume 1,623,953,000
NYSE Volume 3,819,334,750
The lackluster equity trade seemed to ensnare commodities as well, with oil falling again, though down only 35 cents, t0 $75.39. Gold gained a slim dime, to $1,214.90, while silver added 4 cents, to $18.10.
It may be the middle of summer, when trading volumes are traditionally slow, but this week was probably the lowest volume week in a year marred by an absence of trading activity. Not only have individual investors headed to the safety to cash or bonds, but larger entities have trimmed their activity as well.
None of this bodes well going forward, and with good reason. The economy is managed by buffoons in Washington and crooks on Wall Street, to the benefit of almost nobody.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
No Cat, No Bounce In Dead Trade
Normally, following a massive decline like the one Wednesday, traders will be looking to see if the market shows any signs of strength with a bounce the following session. In bull markets, there's almost always some buoyancy with buyers stepping in to scoop up what they deem bargains. Even during bear markets there is usually enough optimism to promote some short-term relief, but there was none to be found on Thursday, as the major exchanges wrote down their third straight session on the red side of the ledger.
Although the markets opened down heavily and within minutes were trading at what would eventually be the lows of the day, stocks spent the entire session below the unchanged line, without even a hint of buying. This is a very bad sign for anybody holding stocks right now. An acute lack of buyers in the public marketplace presages not only a severe downturn in the values of stocks, but potentially a liquidity crisis in which stocks cannot even trade efficiently.
If there's going to be another shock to the financial system, it's likely to be in the form of liquidity since we've already entered into a deflationary environment. The one asset hailed as supreme during deflationary periods is CASH, simply because that's what everyone covets. Stocks will be shunned, and eventually bonds too, as the wisest choice will be seen as fast-appreciating cash, because it will buy more tomorrow than today as asset values are pounded down into the earth.
Since sellers are normally looking to "cash out" of positions, what happens when they don't recirculate their cash back into the equity markets is a lack of liquidity. This soon turns into a vortex, as buyers cannot be found except at deeply-discounted prices, sucking down the value of stocks with every trade. The abnormally low volume witnessed over the past week demonstrates, quite clearly, that buying interest has all but dried up. It's only a matter of time before stock holders cash in their chips and leave the markets for a long, long time.
Dow 10,319.95, -58.88 (0.57%)
NASDAQ 2,190.27, -18.36 (0.83%)
S&P 500 1,083.61, -5.86 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite 6,881.94, -20.77 (0.30%)
Declining issues ramped past advancers on the day, 3788-2646. Even more telling was the now-complete about-face in the daily new highs and lows. New lows took the upper hand for the second straight session, by a widening margin of 264-209. While volume has been decried as out of order, it is worth noting that the only positive daily finish of the week (Monday) was accompanied by the lowest volume, by a long shot. Overall, trading volume has improved each successive day since, though every day was a losing one. That's about all one needs to know about whether or not this downturn will continue. Volume continues to gain strength as more and more traders hit the panic button and sell. Since Tuesday was only the beginning of this current round of equity liquidation, expect further declines and the same or higher trading volumes in days and weeks ahead. There seems to be no stopping the markets from engaging in a race to the price discovery bottom.
NASDAQ Volume 2,211,456,250
NYSE Volume 4,563,876,000
As the dollar gained strength again, oil prices careened downward, losing $2.28, to $75.74, a quick reversal from the trades last week above the $80 mark. Gold got a sizable lift, up $17.30, to $1,214.80, now that speculators can read the Fed's hand without even having to peek. The Fed is out to eventually rip up the currency, making gold more valuable, and trader's aren't particularly concerned with short-term dollar strength, like today. They're ready to dive into gold and drive it to new highs, something that should surprise nobody, as gold has outperformed every other asset on nearly every level over the past ten years.
Silver gained slightly, adding 16 cents, to $18.05.
The markets were blind-sided once again prior to the open by another depressing report on initial unemployment claims, up to 484,000, following last week's stunning 479,000, which was revised higher, to 482,000. Not only are jobs not being created in the United States, more companies are beginning to lay workers off as the economy has stalled. If unemployment continues to rise, there is no hope for a recovery, which seems obvious. The double-dip recession which so many have discounted as unlikely, now seems a certainty, though one wonders why it took so many people so long to admit it.
For what it's worth, Bank of America (BAC) closed at another 52-week low today, down 13 cents, at 13.06.
Tomorrow's CPI report for July should show the effects of a moribund economy. Unless I've been completely wrong the past three years, the number should be lower, signifying further deflation.
Although the markets opened down heavily and within minutes were trading at what would eventually be the lows of the day, stocks spent the entire session below the unchanged line, without even a hint of buying. This is a very bad sign for anybody holding stocks right now. An acute lack of buyers in the public marketplace presages not only a severe downturn in the values of stocks, but potentially a liquidity crisis in which stocks cannot even trade efficiently.
If there's going to be another shock to the financial system, it's likely to be in the form of liquidity since we've already entered into a deflationary environment. The one asset hailed as supreme during deflationary periods is CASH, simply because that's what everyone covets. Stocks will be shunned, and eventually bonds too, as the wisest choice will be seen as fast-appreciating cash, because it will buy more tomorrow than today as asset values are pounded down into the earth.
Since sellers are normally looking to "cash out" of positions, what happens when they don't recirculate their cash back into the equity markets is a lack of liquidity. This soon turns into a vortex, as buyers cannot be found except at deeply-discounted prices, sucking down the value of stocks with every trade. The abnormally low volume witnessed over the past week demonstrates, quite clearly, that buying interest has all but dried up. It's only a matter of time before stock holders cash in their chips and leave the markets for a long, long time.
Dow 10,319.95, -58.88 (0.57%)
NASDAQ 2,190.27, -18.36 (0.83%)
S&P 500 1,083.61, -5.86 (0.54%)
NYSE Composite 6,881.94, -20.77 (0.30%)
Declining issues ramped past advancers on the day, 3788-2646. Even more telling was the now-complete about-face in the daily new highs and lows. New lows took the upper hand for the second straight session, by a widening margin of 264-209. While volume has been decried as out of order, it is worth noting that the only positive daily finish of the week (Monday) was accompanied by the lowest volume, by a long shot. Overall, trading volume has improved each successive day since, though every day was a losing one. That's about all one needs to know about whether or not this downturn will continue. Volume continues to gain strength as more and more traders hit the panic button and sell. Since Tuesday was only the beginning of this current round of equity liquidation, expect further declines and the same or higher trading volumes in days and weeks ahead. There seems to be no stopping the markets from engaging in a race to the price discovery bottom.
NASDAQ Volume 2,211,456,250
NYSE Volume 4,563,876,000
As the dollar gained strength again, oil prices careened downward, losing $2.28, to $75.74, a quick reversal from the trades last week above the $80 mark. Gold got a sizable lift, up $17.30, to $1,214.80, now that speculators can read the Fed's hand without even having to peek. The Fed is out to eventually rip up the currency, making gold more valuable, and trader's aren't particularly concerned with short-term dollar strength, like today. They're ready to dive into gold and drive it to new highs, something that should surprise nobody, as gold has outperformed every other asset on nearly every level over the past ten years.
Silver gained slightly, adding 16 cents, to $18.05.
The markets were blind-sided once again prior to the open by another depressing report on initial unemployment claims, up to 484,000, following last week's stunning 479,000, which was revised higher, to 482,000. Not only are jobs not being created in the United States, more companies are beginning to lay workers off as the economy has stalled. If unemployment continues to rise, there is no hope for a recovery, which seems obvious. The double-dip recession which so many have discounted as unlikely, now seems a certainty, though one wonders why it took so many people so long to admit it.
For what it's worth, Bank of America (BAC) closed at another 52-week low today, down 13 cents, at 13.06.
Tomorrow's CPI report for July should show the effects of a moribund economy. Unless I've been completely wrong the past three years, the number should be lower, signifying further deflation.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
