Thursday, November 11, 2010

Grantham Calls Fed Manipulator; Cisco Cramps Tech

Many of us in the business of watching and reporting on the markets and money make light of CNBC - and for good reason - but sometimes, as in Maria Bartiroma's interview below with Jeremy Grantham, they bring to light some of the more terrifying aspects of our world, such as, as Grantham sates, without prodding, "the Fed has spent most of the last fifteen, twenty years manipulating the stock market."

Wow! Now, if anybody has taken issue with my frequent claims that US stock markets are manipulated, I urge them to take it up with Sir Grantham, one of the world's brightest and most influential economic minds. Since my views - often called radical or conspiratorial - mirror his, then maybe it's time people begin paying just a little more attention to the dangers we face now, in the near term and in our long-term future.

Please, please, please, watch the video, at least the first ten minutes. We should all be protesting against the Fed and the do-nothing congress. Sadly, most of America is either too misinformed by our compromised mainstream media, or completely uninformed, or too busy trying to make ends meet in an economic climate that is crushing the middle and lower classes, to do anything.



Keeping up on the recurrent theme of "oligarchies versus the people," protests in Germany have driven police forces close to their breaking point. The German people are fed up with government and media lies. Americans would be well-advised to keep up with events in Europe as a precursor to what will - when it's already too late - eventually happen here.

German people in unprecedented rebellion against government: 1000 injured in protests in nuclear protests: police at breaking point

As for the markets, the crooks were in early today, snatching up shares as the market opened at session lows. This is surely a sign of manipulation, as trapped sellers were forced out of stocks while the organized crime gang quietly bought at reduced prices. The NASDAQ, as a case n point, was down 44 points within the first seven minutes, but gradually gained ground all day.

The poor open was due largely to Cisco (CSCO), which reported earnings after the close on Wednesday, and had a generally good quarter, but CEO John Chambers drastically cut forecasts which sent the stock to 17-month lows, closing down 16% for the day at 20.52. The volume - 10 times normal - accounted for much of the high volume figure on the NASDAQ. It was an absolute tech bloodbath and Chambers' remarks a full repudiation of the markets and all discussion of US economic recovery.

The closing prices marked the third down day out of the past four, a condition not seen since August. Stocks are on track to post their first weekly loss in nine weeks, though with the first of many injections of liquidity by the Fed beginning tomorrow, nobody really can tell if stocks are headed lower or if the Fed intervention will save the day and the week.

The Fed's QE is such a mammoth distortion ($105 billion through December 9 just for openers) that it's difficult to tell traders that stocks are overvalued, some wildly so. It will have to be played out according to the whims and whirring of the computer algos which direct most (upwards of 70%) of the trading. The grand experiment begins in earnest tomorrow with a $6 billion injection of phony money, created at the press of a button at the Federal Reserve.

Dow 11,283.10, -73.94 (0.65%)
NASDAQ 2,555.52, -23.26 (0.90%)
S&P 500 1,213.54, -5.17 (0.42%)
NYSE Composite 7,723.24, -24.22 (0.31%)


Declining issues hammered advancers, 4191-2217, though it could have been much worse. Decliners led advancers by a margin greater than 3:1 in the early going before the machines caught onto the inherent buying opportunity. The gap between new highs and new lows continued to narrow, with 349 new highs and 73 new lows. Volume was poor on the NYSE, but, as mentioned above, higher on the NASDAQ due to the outlandish trading in Cisco.

NASDAQ Volume 2,467,640,250
NYSE Volume 4,389,113,000


Oil closed completely flat at $87.81, but the precious metals got back to their appreciative ways. Gold printed at $1409.90, a gain of $6.50, while silver posted a solid 62 cent gain, to $27.76. There is no holding back silver at this point. A price of $30 by year's end is almost baked in, with most experts in the market viewing $45-50 as a target for 2011. It's possibly the most misunderstood commodity on the planet and still trades at an enormous discount to gold, far outside historical norms of 15-17 times.

Today being Veteran's Day, bond markets were closed, so there may have been more of a focus on equities than normal. That said, if you haven't already done so, treat a veteran kindly today or remember those who have served and gone on to greener pastures. They sacrificed for the sake of their fellow man, a calling of which there is no higher honor.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Fed Plans Not Going So Smoothly; Harrisburg, PA on the Edge

Since the Federal Reserve announced last Wednesday that they would be injecting $600-900 billion into the monetary system through outright purchases of Treasury bond issuance, the cacophony of protest and derision has been boisterous and unrelenting. Chairman Ben Bernanke's purposeful nuking of the value of the world's reserve currency, the US Dollar, has raised eyebrows and voices from Shanghai to Sao Paulo as global finance leaders attempt to adjust their currencies to meet the expected influx of freshly-printed greenbacks.

Along with complaints from the global financial community, voices inside the United States have also weighed in, mostly condemning the action as unneeded, unwanted and eventually, inflationary.

What's worse, it doesn't seem to be working very well, as evidenced by today's 30-year bond auction, which saw lowered levels of participation and the highest yield in five months, exactly the opposite of what the liquidity tsunami was supposed to accomplish.

It's likely too early to tell, as the Fed has only today set down their Tentative Outright Treasury Operation Schedule, or TOTO, which as we all know, was the name of Dorothy's little dog in the movie, "The Wizard of Oz," an appropriate, if not slightly cynical metaphor for Mr. Bernanke standing behind a curtain pulling the levels and strings of the global economy.

Interested investors may want to print out the Fed's schedule as it should provide some guidance into which days would be better to buy or sell (warning: the Fed does not want you to sell) stocks. Those days with "operations" should be the prime selling days, and those without, opportunities to buy as the market will, no doubt, be on hold or falling. So much for free, fair and open markets. The Fed's interventionist policies have made Wall Street even more of a casino than it already was, and now they're using stocked decks and loaded die.

Things got off to another bad start for Bennie and his buddies this morning, as stocks backslid right out of the open, with the Dow falling 91 points, to its low of the day, shortly after 10:00 am. After that, however, with the banks holding firmly to the silver shorts which torpedoed a wicked rally in the precious metals late yesterday, it was once again off to the races, though the markets' pace more resembled that of a snail than a thoroughbred.

After two days of losses, the markets shrugged off middling new unemployment claims at 435,000 (below estimates, but sure to be revised higher next week), and, having convinced the sixteen suckers still trading via their e-trade accounts that the direction was negative, began the process of fleecing the sheep, all led to slaughter by the Fed-Wall Street money crunching machine.

Dow 11,357.04, +10.29 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,578.78, +15.80 (0.62%)
S&P 500 1,218.71, +5.31 (0.44%)
NYSE Composite 7,747.46, +45.15 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,023,686,125
NYSE Volume 5,268,140,500


Advancing issues turned the tide on decliners, 4158-2329. New highs numbered only 362, a notable change from the kinds of numbers reported over the past three weeks. Only 49 stocks made new lows. Volume was right about average on a day in which the dollar was up against most other currencies.

So, the Fed may be getting what it wants when it turns on the money spigot on Friday with the first of 18 monetary injections. They'll keep at it every day except the days immediately before and after Thanksgiving, for a total of about $105 billion, through December 9. If that doesn't get stocks flying higher than a redneck on meth, nothing will, and that's just the Fed's point, to make asset values climb, staving off the dastardly deflation, a condition that would suit most Americans just fine. A big THANK YOU VERY MUCH to Mr. Bernanke from the middle class.

Most commodity prices are already much higher than they were just two months ago, when Bernanke first began to whisper loudly about the now-imminent liquidity push. Cotton, corn, wheat and almost all foodstuffs have been on a tear, so much so that the exchanges have been slapping on tighter margin requirements for many.

Crude oil was up $1.09 on the day, to a 2010 high of $87.81. Just in time for Christmas, the Fed's policies are about to send gas prices through the roof. Thanks again, Mr. Ben! After yesterday's drubbing, gold gained $10.70, to $1403.40 at last print. Silver also caught a bid, trading at $27.14, up 19 cents on the day.

Meanwhile in the aftermath of mortgage insurer Ambac's bankruptcy filing Monday (and delisting as of today),the city of Harrisburg, PA, the state capitol, hired the law firm of Cravath, Swaine & Moore to advise on a potential municipal bankruptcy, which has been rumored for many months. with the fall of Ambac, the dominoes may begin tumbling, first among other mortgage insurers, then to municipalities and into credit default swaps mostly in the hands of the nation's largest banks.

Considering the timing of the Fed's dramatic money creation scheme, might these funds be nothing more than a backdoor backstop to the banks again? They certainly were aware of Ambac's condition and that of the handful of other illiquid mortgage insurers. If this were the case, then all bets are off concerning market gains, as the money will never see the light of day. It will be parceled out among the nation's greatest criminals to cover their corrosive and rapidly depreciating swaps and guarantees between each other.

While Ambac's portfolio may be only a few billion short, the forward effect is to cause other defaults along the chain, and once the genie gets out of the unregulated CDS bottle, there's likely no putting her back in. The cascading effect of illiquid assets turning enterprises wholly insolvent could happen within split seconds, without warning, and it's already apparent that the band-aids applied to the insolvent banks thus far have not proved remedial.

Higher interest rates on Treasuries going forward will be a sure sign that the financial structure is about to topple, with over $600 TRILLION of notional exposure ready to come crashing down. This is the conditions under which we watch our financial markets these final days of 2010. If Bernanke's plan does not cause stocks to rise, interest rates to fall and general inflation (bad enough), it's a safe bet that financial reckoning day may come sooner rather than later.

Tracing out the scenario, the Fed would probably not allow everything to simply collapse in a heap. After a few days of severe declines in the stock markets, highlighted by drops in financial stocks, the president would likely call a bank holiday stretching anywhere from a week to a month in an effort toward calmness. Unfortunately, the effect of that would be wide-eyed panic, as most people would be without cash and maybe denied access to credit cards as well.

After that, who knows? Emergency powers? Martial law? A complete overhaul of the Fed and Treasury? The ripples would be worldwide.

It's the nightmare scenario, but in the current climate, the possibility of a massive failure is possible and palpable.

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

There's Something Very Wrong and the Tea Party Knows It

Stocks were down for the second straight session, as criticism of the Federal Reserve's recently-announced QE2 has ramped up and is nearing a fever pitch. While the Fed seeks to embark on another round of handing easy money to criminals on Wall Street, the rest of the world is not exactly enamored with Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Europe is beset with its own problems, stemming from unstable, out-of-control government spending in the PIIGS countries, but particularly Ireland and Portugal, which have gone from bad to mush worse over the past six months. That has kept the US dollar from appreciating against the Euro to any great degree, only because money seeks its safest refuge, and in currency markets, the US still appears to be a safer bet than most of Europe.

The Chinese expressed their displeasure by having their ratings agency, Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd cut the U.S. local and foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating to A-plus from AA.

Throughout the day, stocks were sent lower as gold and silver, especially, caromed ever higher, with gold spiking to $1425.50 and silver hitting $29.38. By the end of the day, however, the fiat money-makers had had enough and the CME announced an increase in margin requirements to buy silver from $5000 per contract to $6500 (silver is traded in 5000 oz. increments).

That may have been cover for some serious naked shorting of both gold and silver, because while it may explain the late day selloff in silver, it would have had little effect on gold, which also crashed late in the day (see chart at right). At the moment, the bid on gold is $1393.00, and silver has been smashed down to $26.95. The obvious take-away is that the Bernanke put - his $600-900 billion in USSS created right out of thin air, is receiving some serious competition from real money, that being gold and silver, and the Fed, through their proxies on the trading floors had to do something.


They're likely to try to tamp down gold and silver prices in order to garner more bids on their beloved US stock markets, though it's unclear at this time whether anything they do can stem the tide rising against them. In the long run, though most people will never notice, gold and silver are going to become the basis for currency, not Federal Reserve Notes (FRNs) and debt. Sides are being drawn and this battle will end with few winners. Most of the losers will be stockholders and owners of paper currencies. Gold and silver - as they have over thousands of years - will prevail.

Dow 11,346.75, -60.09 (0.53%)
NASDAQ 2,562.98, -17.07 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,213.40, -9.85 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 7,702.31, -79.89 (1.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,204,733,500
NYSE Volume 5,605,771,500


Declining issues rocked advancers, 4709-1789. There were still 777 new highs to a paltry 82 new lows, but volume was much higher than yesterday's session and better than most days during the run-up of the past two months, a discouraging sign for stock investors, but probably the best news for the long-term, in which the stock market becomes a game of last-man standing.

Oil even came down for a change, dropping 34 cents, to $86.72, and if the stock market continues to slide, expect oil to diverge from gold and silver, following stocks down the deflationary path. Bernanke's big money bet notwithstanding, the next few weeks and into the end of the year may be very hazardous times for trading in anything.

With a pickup of sixty seats in the House, the Republican party has taken control, spurred onward by the success of anywhere from 30-40 Tea Party candidates. In the wide-ranging report from PBS below, some of the nuances are Rand Paul's hint that he may cut federal employee paychecks by 10%, Utah Senator Mike Lee pondering a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, cut the Department of Education and voting NO on raising the debt ceiling, a vote that is likely to come up early in the next term (March-May, 2011).

Monday, November 8, 2010

Currency Wars: Gold/Silver vs. US$ vs. Euro

While there wasn't much of a downdraft in stocks today (the NASDAQ was positive at the close), currency watchers had plenty to occupy their attention as the dollar appreciated against the Euro, though the big winners were Gold and Silver (the shining star of the past two months).

The Fed offered up $6.5 billion to Wall Street in the form or a POMO, but the boys said, "oh, no" and continued their selling of overpriced stocks in the face of Euro woes.

The European answer to Ben Bernanke's blind monkey monetary policy (QE2) was expressly Continental. As Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain teeter on the brink of insolvency, the European response was a curt, "you're not so bad; we're worse," as the race to the bottom of the currency abyss accelerated to a manic pace.

The big beneficiaries were manifested in pronounced moves in gold and silver, the former reaching new all-time highs, the latter continuing it's crusade against anything fiat. At the end of the day, owning gold, silver or dollars was the correct bet, against the wishes of Mr. Bernanke, and, at least for today, a complete repudiation of his overt, repulsive monetarism.

One outlier worth note was Bank of America (BAC), which defied all logic and sound investing strategy by posting another in a series of gains. Shares of the nation's largest mortgage lender finished up 24 cents, to $12.60, equaling its close on October 14. Shares had sunk as low as 11.16 (October 25), but have since found new life, though the stock is so heavily shorted, it may be merely a shaking out of weak hands. The stock gapped up at the open and made its best advances in the afternoon, trading as high as 12.73 before settling lower.

Oddly enough, the euphoria from last week, spurred by the Fed's announcement that it would monetize up to $900 billion in debt over the next eight months and sweeping victories in the House by the Republican party, seemed to fade in the light of the new week. Doubters of Fed policy are numerous and many have loudly decried Mr. Bernanke's QE as the wrong prescription for the US and global economies. Among them, US Representative Ron Paul from Texas, who expressed a view that the Fed would fail on its own and that gold should compete with Federal Reserve Notes as currency (see video below).

Additionally, Paul took aim at entitlements on his congressional website, calling for a rejection of the welfare state and offered a position to make Social Security voluntary.

Dow 11,406.84, -37.24 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 2,580.05, +1.07 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,223.25, -2.60 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 7,782.20, -18.46 (0.24%)


With the first downturn in the last seven sessions, declining issues paraded past advancers, 3437-3012. New highs led new lows, 691-53, so there's obviously still a good deal of speculation continuing. Volume, however, returned to moribund levels that prevailed prior to last week.

NASDAQ Volume 1,824,770,375.00
NYSE Volume 4,468,926,000


Oil continued to surge, despite the higher dollar, gaining 21 cents, to $87.06, on the front-end contract. The latest print on gold was up $15.30, to $1409.40, while silver amazed again, gaining 95 cents, to $27.71.

Friday, November 5, 2010

US Stock Markets Are Absurdly Manipulated

Here's a message to the people manipulating the markets:

We know what you're doing because you're so bad at it. Like today. Stocks were down all day, except for the last 20 minutes, you and your fat-cat cohorts boosted everything just to show a positive print. Very lame!

Really, folks, the markets are so out of touch, they're not to be touched. I had planned to write a bit about the blowback from the financial community over Bernanke's relentless pumping, a la QE2, but I'm so thoroughly disgusted, I just can't bring myself to write it. Suffice it to say that most of the rest of the world thinks his tinkering is bad monetary policy, and you can count me as one of that group.

Dow 11,444.08, +9.24 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,578.98, +1.64 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,225.85, +4.79 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 7,800.66, +18.23 (0.23%)


Advancing issues topped decliners, 3679-2767. There were 1069 new highs and 96 new lows. Volume was strong for the second straight day.

NASDAQ Volume 1,984,391,875.00
NYSE Volume 6,297,631,000


The abhorrent non-farm payroll figures - a complete fabrication - came in at +151,000, though most of the increase was surely artificial, boosted by the birth-death model and seasonal adjustments. It's all part of the feel-good story the politicians and bankers keep trying to spin, while real unemployment stands at about 20%. Go to a big city or any medium sized city in the South and you can see first hand what's really going on in America.

The poor are being kicked completely to the curb, the middle class soon to join them. Mainstream media has become nothing more than a mouthpiece for corporate America. It's really quite sad.

Since September 1, the Dow Jones Industrials are up nearly 1400 points, a 14% increase, as though we were in the midst of a massive recovery.

Crude oil tacked on another 36 cents on Friday, to $86.85. Expect $4.00 gas by Spring. Gold finished another $1.10 higher, another all-time high, at $1394.00. Silver continued its meteoric ascent, adding 38 cents, to $26.75.

The Fed has depreciated the value of the dollar some 95% since its inception in 1913. They are in the process of squeezing the final 5% out of it. Be ready for some serious holiday inflation, but enjoy the weekend!