Instead of sounding like a broken record, just the brutal number, and note that stocks were well into the red (Dow down 100 points) early on, but just kept climbing all day.
Dow 11,637.45, -37.31 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 2,707.80, +4.63 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,269.75, -1.75 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,966.09, -14.23 (0.18%)
Advancing issues actually beat decliners, 3545-3074. NASDAQ new highs: 158; new lows: 10. NTSE new highs: 132; new lows: 13. Volume was horrible. This is a dead market with dead money.
NASDAQ Volume 1,887,066,625.00
NYSE Volume 4,552,878,000
Oil futures were priced higher because of a BP spill in the Trans-Atlantic Pipeline, proving that even when the oil companies screw up, they screw us. NYMEX crude was up $1.22, to $89.25. Gold gained $5.20, to $1,374.10. Silver was up 19 cents, to $28.86.
I have to kick my tenants out of a house I was renting to them. Apparently, the Lease/Purchase deal I made with them for $400/month (no, that's not a typo) was not good enough. They haven't paid January rent. Unbelievable.
I also un-friended (that is not a word... dis-friended?) a guy I knew from high school on Facebook. He's an overbearing bully who is one of those people who is always right, no matter what. In high school he was just overbearing. The bully part probably came from being married, having kids and needing numerous operations.
I decided to quit communicating with him because of unsatisfactory feelings every time I made contact. His loss, I suppose. Facebook is a joke in many regards because people aren't all open and cheery and sharing. Most people are somewhat secretive and tend to argue. Facebook will become more of a battleground than a "social" network. Dis-friending will be a new trend in 2011.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
Banks Lose in Mass. Case; Jobs Short; Predictions 2011, Part 3
Outside of the first fifteen minutes of trading on Monday, the markets for 2011 have been essentially flat, and with good reason, as they were customarily topped out by the end of December, Monday's (January 3rd) exuberant explosion to the upside a mere phantom rally based on nothing other than bloated expectations.
what everyone anxiously held their collective breaths for - December non-farm payroll data - was released just as usual, though the results were anything but. The number printed at 109,000 new jobs over the month, well below expectations, but the "official" unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, the lowest in something like a year and a half, but pure farce, based upon some 500,000 former workers ceasing to collect unemployment insurance.
Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics is quickly becoming known as an Orwellian Bureau of Disinformation for their gently-massaged, highly-suspect numbers from month to month, the rosy outlook from the 0.4% drop in the unemployment rate merely masks the reality of half a million Americans being switched from once-productive members of society to then-unemployed to now permanent membership of the underclass of welfare and food stamp recipients.
Stocks took a bit of a nose-dive on the news, and traded in the red the entire session, though recovered some of the ground late in the day. There was nothing to lift stocks except the unhappy comedy of whirring computers and drugged-up Americans believing anything being said on the great gizmo of propaganda tube.
We now have two or three different economies co-existing in the nation. There's the super-rich, who could give a damn about anything other than profits and skimming, who are seldom seen in public but variously fund and plunder from the other classes. There's an upper-middle class of suburban Americans who, though stretched thin by taxes, utilities and inflation, still have enough in the tank to keep believing in the American dream.
Those two groups probably account for maybe 35% of the nation's population, many of them part of the corporate culture, others either working for some form of government entity or drawing retirement benefits from one. Down below is the other 65% of the population, the massive, but shrinking, middle class, which has seen upward mobility destroyed by decades of debt and wage stagnation, their incomes reduced by the dual forces of inflation and a weakening dollar. They are becoming an endangered species, being dragged closer and closer to a wall of insolvency wherein lives the impoverished underclass, though many, thanks to food stamps, rent subsidies and outright handouts from the government live as well as the middle class, without the stress of having to work, pay taxes or any other kind of bill.
This end group is what America is quickly becoming: a dumbed-down horde of mindless babblers, poorly educated and without hope for anything but a dismal future. Those in their twenties or thirties wonder when the next shoe will drop, when their job will be cut, not when they will be promoted or receive the largesse of a raise. Those are the disillusioned, while their elders have already given up. In a world dominated by crooked politicians and ruthless bankers, democracy has been overwhelmed by neo-feudalism, cleverly disguised as a functioning society. Those below the arc of the curve, the 65%ers, have had their rights stripped away, their futures blunted, their wealth taken by the power of the state. For them, and for most of us on the fringe, the future never looked so stark, bleak and devoid of hope.
Wall Street, however, where prosperity is measured by the minute in point-gains and losses, might as well be off in another universe, it is so far removed, perceptually and philosophically, from the rest of the culture. They own, we rent. They take, we give. They win, we lose. The times are indeed precarious.
Dow 11,674.76, -22.55 (0.19%)
NASDAQ 2,703.17, -6.72 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,271.50, -2.35 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,980.32, -20.58 (0.26%)
Aligned with the headline number, losers beat gainers, 3884-2595. On the NASDAQ, there were 148 new highs and just 8 new lows. On the NYSE, the numbers were similar, with 141 new highs and 9 new lows. Volume was lower than any other day this week as the rats jump off the ship.
NASDAQ Volume 1,991,273,500
NYSE Volume 5,659,220,000
Crude oil futures finished down again, losing 35 cents, to $88.03. Gold continued to stall, down $2.80, to $1,368.90. Silver was in even worse shape, losing 45 cents, to $28.67.
In Massachusetts, the state's Supreme Court, in what promises to be a landmark decision, threw out foreclosures brought by US Bancorp and Wells Fargo, saying that the jumbled maze of mortgage assignments and security pooling agreements does not constitute proof of ownership of a note and mortgage, thus making the plaintiffs in the action, the banks, without legal standing to foreclose. In other words, the court told the banks, "no note, no mortgage and no foreclosure. See ya," and dismissed the actions.
The ruling was a notable win for advocates of homeowners and middle class Americans and a potentially-fatal wound to the banks.
Predictions 2011: Stocks, Bonds, Politics and Social Trends
Stocks will languish in 2011, and share prices on January 1st, this past Monday, could well mark the highs of the year, since they were at the height of a four-month-long rally. Rather than another banner year like 2009 and 2010, truth will come out at last, that the economy isn't really recovering all that well, stimulus will have to come to an end at some point and valuations will be ratcheted downward. Corporate earnings will be hard-pressed to match year-ago figures, putting top-end pressure on securities.
Depending on data and also what Republicans in congress do about the debt ceiling, the situation could become even more dire than it already is, though the impression is that it's in everybody's best interest to just keep moving along until 2012, when the presidential and congressional elections will bring out the worst in everyone.
The following are the trading ranges I envisage for the major indices:
Dow: 9250-12000
NASDAQ: 2100-2750
S&P 500: 875-1300
NYSE Comp: 5650-8100
Bonds can't go much higher in yield for fer of exploding deficits and they surely won't decline radically in what appears to be an inflationary environment. The curve will flatten as longer-dated maturities remain calm while the short end inflates on the yield curve. Short term rates have been held down too low for too long, but they're there for a reason, and a big move is not expected.
Food and fuel prices will rise, Lady Gaga will dominate the cultural landscape as will "leaving it behind," a trend based on people fully giving up on the entire system of low wages, high taxes and costs out of control. Oil will not break above $100/barrel as it would be catastrophic and truly cause a depression. Again, that may wait until 2012.
In politics, the Republicans and Democrats will both try to appear adult, measured and in control, when in reality they have no idea what they're doing. 2011 will be another year of massive policy and monetary mistakes which won't be fully appreciated for years. The mortgage/foreclosure mess will cycle out of control and there may actually be prosecutions for some big Wall Street types, though not the top honchos. Any litigation will be for show.
There may be riots (some may already be occurring) over housing, food, jobs, welfare and anything the underclass needs to get by on, and an occasional murder, for vengeance, could take out a rich banker or two.
Mostly, it will be a year of hand-ringing over nothing. Industrious types will find new ways to make a living, while more and more people will fall into poverty, real poverty, not the kind displayed on TV. Tent cities could begin to become more than an eyesore, but a health issue as well, and we'll still be in Iraq and Afghanistan fighting wars for no good reason. China will continue to ascend as America's decline accelerates.
what everyone anxiously held their collective breaths for - December non-farm payroll data - was released just as usual, though the results were anything but. The number printed at 109,000 new jobs over the month, well below expectations, but the "official" unemployment rate fell to 9.4%, the lowest in something like a year and a half, but pure farce, based upon some 500,000 former workers ceasing to collect unemployment insurance.
Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics is quickly becoming known as an Orwellian Bureau of Disinformation for their gently-massaged, highly-suspect numbers from month to month, the rosy outlook from the 0.4% drop in the unemployment rate merely masks the reality of half a million Americans being switched from once-productive members of society to then-unemployed to now permanent membership of the underclass of welfare and food stamp recipients.
Stocks took a bit of a nose-dive on the news, and traded in the red the entire session, though recovered some of the ground late in the day. There was nothing to lift stocks except the unhappy comedy of whirring computers and drugged-up Americans believing anything being said on the great gizmo of propaganda tube.
We now have two or three different economies co-existing in the nation. There's the super-rich, who could give a damn about anything other than profits and skimming, who are seldom seen in public but variously fund and plunder from the other classes. There's an upper-middle class of suburban Americans who, though stretched thin by taxes, utilities and inflation, still have enough in the tank to keep believing in the American dream.
Those two groups probably account for maybe 35% of the nation's population, many of them part of the corporate culture, others either working for some form of government entity or drawing retirement benefits from one. Down below is the other 65% of the population, the massive, but shrinking, middle class, which has seen upward mobility destroyed by decades of debt and wage stagnation, their incomes reduced by the dual forces of inflation and a weakening dollar. They are becoming an endangered species, being dragged closer and closer to a wall of insolvency wherein lives the impoverished underclass, though many, thanks to food stamps, rent subsidies and outright handouts from the government live as well as the middle class, without the stress of having to work, pay taxes or any other kind of bill.
This end group is what America is quickly becoming: a dumbed-down horde of mindless babblers, poorly educated and without hope for anything but a dismal future. Those in their twenties or thirties wonder when the next shoe will drop, when their job will be cut, not when they will be promoted or receive the largesse of a raise. Those are the disillusioned, while their elders have already given up. In a world dominated by crooked politicians and ruthless bankers, democracy has been overwhelmed by neo-feudalism, cleverly disguised as a functioning society. Those below the arc of the curve, the 65%ers, have had their rights stripped away, their futures blunted, their wealth taken by the power of the state. For them, and for most of us on the fringe, the future never looked so stark, bleak and devoid of hope.
Wall Street, however, where prosperity is measured by the minute in point-gains and losses, might as well be off in another universe, it is so far removed, perceptually and philosophically, from the rest of the culture. They own, we rent. They take, we give. They win, we lose. The times are indeed precarious.
Dow 11,674.76, -22.55 (0.19%)
NASDAQ 2,703.17, -6.72 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,271.50, -2.35 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,980.32, -20.58 (0.26%)
Aligned with the headline number, losers beat gainers, 3884-2595. On the NASDAQ, there were 148 new highs and just 8 new lows. On the NYSE, the numbers were similar, with 141 new highs and 9 new lows. Volume was lower than any other day this week as the rats jump off the ship.
NASDAQ Volume 1,991,273,500
NYSE Volume 5,659,220,000
Crude oil futures finished down again, losing 35 cents, to $88.03. Gold continued to stall, down $2.80, to $1,368.90. Silver was in even worse shape, losing 45 cents, to $28.67.
In Massachusetts, the state's Supreme Court, in what promises to be a landmark decision, threw out foreclosures brought by US Bancorp and Wells Fargo, saying that the jumbled maze of mortgage assignments and security pooling agreements does not constitute proof of ownership of a note and mortgage, thus making the plaintiffs in the action, the banks, without legal standing to foreclose. In other words, the court told the banks, "no note, no mortgage and no foreclosure. See ya," and dismissed the actions.
The ruling was a notable win for advocates of homeowners and middle class Americans and a potentially-fatal wound to the banks.
Predictions 2011: Stocks, Bonds, Politics and Social Trends
Stocks will languish in 2011, and share prices on January 1st, this past Monday, could well mark the highs of the year, since they were at the height of a four-month-long rally. Rather than another banner year like 2009 and 2010, truth will come out at last, that the economy isn't really recovering all that well, stimulus will have to come to an end at some point and valuations will be ratcheted downward. Corporate earnings will be hard-pressed to match year-ago figures, putting top-end pressure on securities.
Depending on data and also what Republicans in congress do about the debt ceiling, the situation could become even more dire than it already is, though the impression is that it's in everybody's best interest to just keep moving along until 2012, when the presidential and congressional elections will bring out the worst in everyone.
The following are the trading ranges I envisage for the major indices:
Dow: 9250-12000
NASDAQ: 2100-2750
S&P 500: 875-1300
NYSE Comp: 5650-8100
Bonds can't go much higher in yield for fer of exploding deficits and they surely won't decline radically in what appears to be an inflationary environment. The curve will flatten as longer-dated maturities remain calm while the short end inflates on the yield curve. Short term rates have been held down too low for too long, but they're there for a reason, and a big move is not expected.
Food and fuel prices will rise, Lady Gaga will dominate the cultural landscape as will "leaving it behind," a trend based on people fully giving up on the entire system of low wages, high taxes and costs out of control. Oil will not break above $100/barrel as it would be catastrophic and truly cause a depression. Again, that may wait until 2012.
In politics, the Republicans and Democrats will both try to appear adult, measured and in control, when in reality they have no idea what they're doing. 2011 will be another year of massive policy and monetary mistakes which won't be fully appreciated for years. The mortgage/foreclosure mess will cycle out of control and there may actually be prosecutions for some big Wall Street types, though not the top honchos. Any litigation will be for show.
There may be riots (some may already be occurring) over housing, food, jobs, welfare and anything the underclass needs to get by on, and an occasional murder, for vengeance, could take out a rich banker or two.
Mostly, it will be a year of hand-ringing over nothing. Industrious types will find new ways to make a living, while more and more people will fall into poverty, real poverty, not the kind displayed on TV. Tent cities could begin to become more than an eyesore, but a health issue as well, and we'll still be in Iraq and Afghanistan fighting wars for no good reason. China will continue to ascend as America's decline accelerates.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Sideways Into Friday on December Jobs Data
Since the big gap-up run-up at the open on Monday, stocks have gone essentially sideways, as yet indeterminate as to the direction of the new year, with a new congress, but, unfortunately, the old guard still running the show down at Wall and Broad. Since the big new year's burst Monday morning, the Dow has traded in a very narrow 100-point range.
The show, duller than normal, is exhibiting the kind of trade flow that unsure markets normally do, up one minute, down the next, awaiting the next data flow, pivot point, news or rumor. That pivot or data point could come as early as tomorrow, and probably was delivered a little in advance, today, when, after being loudly trumpeted as the strongest holiday shopping season since 2007, retail sales for December missed analyst expectations.
This kind of "actual" numbers reporting should have been expected, considering the happy-faced lunatics which masquerade as journalists on the major cable and network news shows. They were fed a large baloney sandwich by wall Street in December, and, after gnawing through every last crumb, puked up the residuals to the moronic American consumer. On the news, the markets, instead of a quick reversal, merely glossed over and continued to trade along choppily.
Maybe it will take unbelievably horrible news to finally end the fraudulent rally that has consumed every last remnant of market confidence over the past four months. Then again, tomorrow's December jobs number may have been the plan to tank stocks and retail paper profits all along. We'll know by 8:30 am tomorrow. Until then, we can only wheeze, curse and vomit at the charade trading stocks has become.
Dow 11,697.31, -25.58 (0.22%)
NASDAQ 2,709.89, +7.69 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,273.85, -2.71 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 8,000.90, -39.14 (0.49%)
Declining stocks held sway over advancers, 3878-2615. NASDAQ new highs: 189; new lows: 9; NYSE new highs: 199; new lows: 6. Volume was moderate.
NASDAQ Volume 2,118,538,500.00
NYSE Volume 5,440,849,500
Oil for February delivery fell another $1.81, to $88.38. Gold dipped $2.00, to $1,371.70. Silver lost 7 cents, to $29.13.
Unemployment data for the most recent week showed an increase of initial claims, to 409,000, after a revised figure of 391,000 in the previous week. If there were post-holiday layoffs, which there always are, they will be reflected next week. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, as dubious as the numbers always appear to be, may, nonetheless, be a market mover.
The show, duller than normal, is exhibiting the kind of trade flow that unsure markets normally do, up one minute, down the next, awaiting the next data flow, pivot point, news or rumor. That pivot or data point could come as early as tomorrow, and probably was delivered a little in advance, today, when, after being loudly trumpeted as the strongest holiday shopping season since 2007, retail sales for December missed analyst expectations.
This kind of "actual" numbers reporting should have been expected, considering the happy-faced lunatics which masquerade as journalists on the major cable and network news shows. They were fed a large baloney sandwich by wall Street in December, and, after gnawing through every last crumb, puked up the residuals to the moronic American consumer. On the news, the markets, instead of a quick reversal, merely glossed over and continued to trade along choppily.
Maybe it will take unbelievably horrible news to finally end the fraudulent rally that has consumed every last remnant of market confidence over the past four months. Then again, tomorrow's December jobs number may have been the plan to tank stocks and retail paper profits all along. We'll know by 8:30 am tomorrow. Until then, we can only wheeze, curse and vomit at the charade trading stocks has become.
Dow 11,697.31, -25.58 (0.22%)
NASDAQ 2,709.89, +7.69 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,273.85, -2.71 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 8,000.90, -39.14 (0.49%)
Declining stocks held sway over advancers, 3878-2615. NASDAQ new highs: 189; new lows: 9; NYSE new highs: 199; new lows: 6. Volume was moderate.
NASDAQ Volume 2,118,538,500.00
NYSE Volume 5,440,849,500
Oil for February delivery fell another $1.81, to $88.38. Gold dipped $2.00, to $1,371.70. Silver lost 7 cents, to $29.13.
Unemployment data for the most recent week showed an increase of initial claims, to 409,000, after a revised figure of 391,000 in the previous week. If there were post-holiday layoffs, which there always are, they will be reflected next week. Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report, as dubious as the numbers always appear to be, may, nonetheless, be a market mover.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Stocks Bounce Back; Slaughter of PMs Continues; Predictions 2011, Part 2
After unexpectedly rosy employment data from ADP - showing US employment gains of 295,000 in December - failed to lift market futures, the major indices opened with a decidedly negative bias, sending the Dow down by nearly 40 points at the open with the others in tow.
As it turns out, however, the open, or just minutes into trading, witnessed the lows of the day, as unusual an event as a hole-in-one perhaps, or as a Democrat (or a Republican, for that matter) voting to cut spending.
Stocks levitated into positive territory until about the noon hour, then lazily spent the rest of the session moderating around the highs. A bit of a spark at the end of the day caused them all to close very close to or at their highs. So, we have a market that does nothing but go up, endlessly, it appears, run by HFTs (high frequency traders) and their trusty computer algorithms. It should be obvious - though it is not - to anyone who's studied markets and/or finance for more than 20 minutes that such a system cannot endure.
Meanwhile, the samePonzi schemers traders have managed to make gold and silver look like the worst investments since 17th century tulip bulbs, smacking the two widely-held precious metals down for the second consecutive day. A glance at kitko daily charts clearly indicates that the manipulations by JP Morgan and HSBC are still in place, with their boundless short position being unwound during the US sessions, allowing them to BTD (Buy the Dip) as they surpress the spot price to a level at which they can semi-comfortably unload.
Nobody really knows how large the short positions of these two banks really are, or, worse yet, the extent of manipulation in gold, but if the past two days - and especially today, as the metals receded while oil spiked, breaking the correlated commodity trade - offer any kind of guide, they must be into it up to their stuffed shirt pockets.
We are currently in an inverted market in which the worst, riskiest and most speculative investments - paper money, stocks - continue to rise unabated and the most intrinsic, solid and stable investments (also those with a stellar track record the past 10 years) - gold and silver - are being shunned by the kleptocracy. All the while the Wall Street swindlers are telling you to buy equities and sell your gold and silver, because, according to them, they're "in a bubble," constitutes the worst form of the shell game, because as you sell your gold and silver to buy stocks from them, they are buying, yes, sir! gold and silver.
The best strategy these days is to play along with them, buying when they force the price of PMs lower, because, if they're doing it out of desperation, the prices are sure to rise. Demand for physical gold and silver (not ETFs or "holdings") is at historic highs and will remain there as long as there is artificial suppression and unrelenting money printing by central banks.
Dow 11,722.89, +31.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,702.20, +20.95 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,276.56, +6.36 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,040.04, +17.86 (0.22%)
In a reversal from Tuesday's trade, advancing issues led decliners, 4116-2407. NASDAQ new highs: 148; new lows: 8. NYSE new highs: 175; new lows: 8. The diminishing number of new highs (as compared to Tuesday, a down market day) and the bottoming out of new lows continues to scream "sell, sell, sell" louder than even Jim Cramer's mindless sound effects. The levitation is nearly at an end, there are fewer and fewer stocks left to pump, left the pumpers lift the actual dead and dying weight at or near bottoms.
These new high-low figures are at extremes and the small number of stocks making new highs indicates a market top as does the paucity of analysts willing to put near-term objectives out in front of their faces. Normally, a sell-off would be imminent, though with the controlled nature of the US markets, almost anything could happen.
NASDAQ Volume 2,072,631,625
NYSE Volume 5,273,362,500
Oil bounced back up over the $90 mark, closing at $90.30, a gain of 92 cents on the day. Gold fell $5.10, to $1,373.70, while silver shed another 31 cents, to $29.20, though both were much lower mid-day.
Predictions 2011: Part 2
When we left on on Monday, the discussion had turned to unemployment, which we said would run past 10% in 2011. What wasn't said was that the corollary, employment, would continue to show faint signs of life, though what the BLS and the government number crunchers also won't tell anyone is that high-paying jobs in tech, manufacturing and other businesses are still being downsized, only to be replaced by low-wage service jobs. Essentially, the middle class is being downsized by enormous corporate interests which have a vested interest in boosting their bottom lines.
In essence, over the past 40 years, America has gone from being one of the most productive economies evre seen on the face of this planet, to being one of the most destructive, in terms of lost opportunity, capacity utilization and middle class wealth destruction. This shift away from productive, capital-building enterprises to service-related companies with the emphasis toward domestic consumption will only accelerate in the coming year unless radical changes are made to our tax laws and industrial policy, a thing that currently does not exist.
Currencies/FOREX
The race to the bottom of the fiat money pit will continue unabated in 2011, and probably accelerate in the second half of the year as the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and 2nd round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) continue to keep the economy like a patient in traction. The patient will be reported as doing better, though still unable to move on its own. Thus, when the Fed's latest ploy (QE2) runs out in June, there will be need for further stimulus and it will have to be n the form of expanding the money supply, slipping it into the balance sheets of the illiquid banks and letting the proceeds sit on the bloated balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.
While Europe has openly stressed austerity, there's little evidence that it's doing anything different than what our own Fed is doing, as they go from one bailout to another - from Greece, to Ireland, to Portugal, Spain, Italy. The issues in the EU are so extreme and dangerous, the US dollar will look like a good bet by comparison. But the real strengthening currencies will be in developing nations like India, China, Malaysia, Korea and those with raw materials, like (surprisingly) Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Indonesia and the mainstays, Canada (though they're stressed as well) and Australia. Any nation displaying fiscal discipline would serve as a good place to hedge US dollars, though they are difficult to find.
As the world becomes an increasingly dangerous place, deployment of capital will seek alternatives to the developed world, but inflation in growing economies could offset any currency gains. It's a strange and fast-paced trade in currencies, not for the inexperienced or those with limited capital to put at risk. The US dollar will fare well against almost all other competing currencies. Destruction of the world's reserve currency takes time, and a year is just a small part of the breaking tableau.
COMMODITIES
Tying back to the constant hum of government printing presses, increased monetary stimulus will eventually find an outlet in hard goods and raw materials. Food prices already are at record levels in many parts of the world, energy continues to feel demand strains, though the relatively slow pace of growth and the inexorable pull of political power worldwide will put a brake on some of this trade. While climate concerns top the list as far as grains and most foodstuffs are concerned, manipulation in metals - precious and otherwise - may cause violent swings and price dislocations. In an environment created to obfuscate and confuse price discovery mechanisms, an absolute rise in prices is definitely not a slam dunk, though the inflationary push seems to point in that direction.
Eventually, price will meet demand, or lack thereof, and some equilibrium found before riots and starvation become the norm. Your best bets for 2011 are still gold and silver, with the latter being the favored instrument as it seeks to re-establish the 15-1 gold-silver ratio. Both should appreciate well in excess of 15%, so $1500 gold should be an easy target and silver may bust right through $40 per ounce in rapid manner.
As far as oil is concerned, apart from the rigged and artificial aspects of how it is traded, crude prices cannot exceed $100 for very long, if they even reach them. Absolute price inflation will crimp demand, and, thus, set the wheel back to "go" again, so don't expect oil prices to skyrocket or decline much at all. Stable prices would be best for all parties (except those selling the stuff, short term), and that's what we may get. There's about a 30% chance oil prices actually fall on slack demand, back under $75, but not much further, though a price around $60 per barrel would go a long way toward global growth, though the supply/demand numbers simply don't add up well for that to be much more than a wing and many prayers.
Besides gold and silver, rare earth investments are tricky and unless you discover a mother lode of ytterbium in your back yard, best avoided as another needless paper chase and probably over-hyped. All well-stocked commodity cabinets should have the requisite PMs, plus canned foods and bottled water in case of the absolute end. Guns if you got 'em, ammo if you have the guns.
Friday: Stocks, indices, politics and cultural trends to watch.
As it turns out, however, the open, or just minutes into trading, witnessed the lows of the day, as unusual an event as a hole-in-one perhaps, or as a Democrat (or a Republican, for that matter) voting to cut spending.
Stocks levitated into positive territory until about the noon hour, then lazily spent the rest of the session moderating around the highs. A bit of a spark at the end of the day caused them all to close very close to or at their highs. So, we have a market that does nothing but go up, endlessly, it appears, run by HFTs (high frequency traders) and their trusty computer algorithms. It should be obvious - though it is not - to anyone who's studied markets and/or finance for more than 20 minutes that such a system cannot endure.
Meanwhile, the same
Nobody really knows how large the short positions of these two banks really are, or, worse yet, the extent of manipulation in gold, but if the past two days - and especially today, as the metals receded while oil spiked, breaking the correlated commodity trade - offer any kind of guide, they must be into it up to their stuffed shirt pockets.
We are currently in an inverted market in which the worst, riskiest and most speculative investments - paper money, stocks - continue to rise unabated and the most intrinsic, solid and stable investments (also those with a stellar track record the past 10 years) - gold and silver - are being shunned by the kleptocracy. All the while the Wall Street swindlers are telling you to buy equities and sell your gold and silver, because, according to them, they're "in a bubble," constitutes the worst form of the shell game, because as you sell your gold and silver to buy stocks from them, they are buying, yes, sir! gold and silver.
The best strategy these days is to play along with them, buying when they force the price of PMs lower, because, if they're doing it out of desperation, the prices are sure to rise. Demand for physical gold and silver (not ETFs or "holdings") is at historic highs and will remain there as long as there is artificial suppression and unrelenting money printing by central banks.
Dow 11,722.89, +31.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,702.20, +20.95 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,276.56, +6.36 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,040.04, +17.86 (0.22%)
In a reversal from Tuesday's trade, advancing issues led decliners, 4116-2407. NASDAQ new highs: 148; new lows: 8. NYSE new highs: 175; new lows: 8. The diminishing number of new highs (as compared to Tuesday, a down market day) and the bottoming out of new lows continues to scream "sell, sell, sell" louder than even Jim Cramer's mindless sound effects. The levitation is nearly at an end, there are fewer and fewer stocks left to pump, left the pumpers lift the actual dead and dying weight at or near bottoms.
These new high-low figures are at extremes and the small number of stocks making new highs indicates a market top as does the paucity of analysts willing to put near-term objectives out in front of their faces. Normally, a sell-off would be imminent, though with the controlled nature of the US markets, almost anything could happen.
NASDAQ Volume 2,072,631,625
NYSE Volume 5,273,362,500
Oil bounced back up over the $90 mark, closing at $90.30, a gain of 92 cents on the day. Gold fell $5.10, to $1,373.70, while silver shed another 31 cents, to $29.20, though both were much lower mid-day.
Predictions 2011: Part 2
When we left on on Monday, the discussion had turned to unemployment, which we said would run past 10% in 2011. What wasn't said was that the corollary, employment, would continue to show faint signs of life, though what the BLS and the government number crunchers also won't tell anyone is that high-paying jobs in tech, manufacturing and other businesses are still being downsized, only to be replaced by low-wage service jobs. Essentially, the middle class is being downsized by enormous corporate interests which have a vested interest in boosting their bottom lines.
In essence, over the past 40 years, America has gone from being one of the most productive economies evre seen on the face of this planet, to being one of the most destructive, in terms of lost opportunity, capacity utilization and middle class wealth destruction. This shift away from productive, capital-building enterprises to service-related companies with the emphasis toward domestic consumption will only accelerate in the coming year unless radical changes are made to our tax laws and industrial policy, a thing that currently does not exist.
Currencies/FOREX
The race to the bottom of the fiat money pit will continue unabated in 2011, and probably accelerate in the second half of the year as the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and 2nd round of Quantitative Easing (QE2) continue to keep the economy like a patient in traction. The patient will be reported as doing better, though still unable to move on its own. Thus, when the Fed's latest ploy (QE2) runs out in June, there will be need for further stimulus and it will have to be n the form of expanding the money supply, slipping it into the balance sheets of the illiquid banks and letting the proceeds sit on the bloated balance sheet of the Federal Reserve.
While Europe has openly stressed austerity, there's little evidence that it's doing anything different than what our own Fed is doing, as they go from one bailout to another - from Greece, to Ireland, to Portugal, Spain, Italy. The issues in the EU are so extreme and dangerous, the US dollar will look like a good bet by comparison. But the real strengthening currencies will be in developing nations like India, China, Malaysia, Korea and those with raw materials, like (surprisingly) Peru, Brazil, Ecuador, Indonesia and the mainstays, Canada (though they're stressed as well) and Australia. Any nation displaying fiscal discipline would serve as a good place to hedge US dollars, though they are difficult to find.
As the world becomes an increasingly dangerous place, deployment of capital will seek alternatives to the developed world, but inflation in growing economies could offset any currency gains. It's a strange and fast-paced trade in currencies, not for the inexperienced or those with limited capital to put at risk. The US dollar will fare well against almost all other competing currencies. Destruction of the world's reserve currency takes time, and a year is just a small part of the breaking tableau.
COMMODITIES
Tying back to the constant hum of government printing presses, increased monetary stimulus will eventually find an outlet in hard goods and raw materials. Food prices already are at record levels in many parts of the world, energy continues to feel demand strains, though the relatively slow pace of growth and the inexorable pull of political power worldwide will put a brake on some of this trade. While climate concerns top the list as far as grains and most foodstuffs are concerned, manipulation in metals - precious and otherwise - may cause violent swings and price dislocations. In an environment created to obfuscate and confuse price discovery mechanisms, an absolute rise in prices is definitely not a slam dunk, though the inflationary push seems to point in that direction.
Eventually, price will meet demand, or lack thereof, and some equilibrium found before riots and starvation become the norm. Your best bets for 2011 are still gold and silver, with the latter being the favored instrument as it seeks to re-establish the 15-1 gold-silver ratio. Both should appreciate well in excess of 15%, so $1500 gold should be an easy target and silver may bust right through $40 per ounce in rapid manner.
As far as oil is concerned, apart from the rigged and artificial aspects of how it is traded, crude prices cannot exceed $100 for very long, if they even reach them. Absolute price inflation will crimp demand, and, thus, set the wheel back to "go" again, so don't expect oil prices to skyrocket or decline much at all. Stable prices would be best for all parties (except those selling the stuff, short term), and that's what we may get. There's about a 30% chance oil prices actually fall on slack demand, back under $75, but not much further, though a price around $60 per barrel would go a long way toward global growth, though the supply/demand numbers simply don't add up well for that to be much more than a wing and many prayers.
Besides gold and silver, rare earth investments are tricky and unless you discover a mother lode of ytterbium in your back yard, best avoided as another needless paper chase and probably over-hyped. All well-stocked commodity cabinets should have the requisite PMs, plus canned foods and bottled water in case of the absolute end. Guns if you got 'em, ammo if you have the guns.
Friday: Stocks, indices, politics and cultural trends to watch.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
Market Correction Begins, Stalls as Gold and Silver are Unloaded
Stocks sold off in the morning and recovered somewhat in the afternoon, with the Dow the only index to post a gain at the close. The volume was quite a bit better than recently, which, if you're in the bullish camp, is not a good sign, as this was controlled selling followed by short covering, in earnest.
As was stated yesterday, stocks are wickedly overpriced and due for a retracement or at least a pullback of 7-10% from yesterday's close. However, considering the forces at work behind the market, nothing would come as a surprise these days as these markets are anything but orderly.
The real story of the day was in commodities, as everything - from wheat to oil - sold off viciously. More on that later.
Dow 11,691.18, +20.43 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,681.25, -10.27 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,270.20, -1.69 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,022.18, -21.79 (0.27%)
Declining issues beat advancing issues by a wide margin, 4262-2248. There were 146 new highs on the NASDAQ, and just 3 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs buried new lows, 200-9. As mentioned yesterday, these numbers are at extremes, cannot be maintained and the fallout is likely to be severe, unless we're entering some new Twilight Zone of prosperity, complete with flying unicorns, fairy princesses and mushrooms made of gold.
NASDAQ Volume 2,034,894,250
NYSE Volume 5,395,944,500
In the commodity space, it was sell or be damned. Crude oil for February delivery - the front end NYMEX contract - lost $2.17, closing at $89.38, though it traded lower during the day. It would not be a shock to see oil head back into the low $80 range, being that the busy holiday season is over and the oil barons have skewered the driving public once again.
Gold was unmercifully slaughtered, losing $44.10 (-3%), to finish at $1,378.80. Silver was even more battered, losing over 5%, down $1.62, to $29.51. The precious metals r being routinely pumped and dumped by large hedge players, most notorious of the bunch, JP Morgan and HSBC, who are being sued for manipulation of the silver market. This move in the PMs is nothing to get excited about, for now. A reversal was due, but not to the extent of today's move. Given time, both gold and silver will attain new heights as the kleptocracy running Wall Street and the US government becomes more desperate every day.
One should not be persuaded to sell any gold or silver in this environment, as the metals have proven to be quite volatile and able to replace huge losses in a matter of weeks, or even days.
Please note: Part 2 of 2011 Predictions will appear tomorrow, with Part 3 on Friday
As was stated yesterday, stocks are wickedly overpriced and due for a retracement or at least a pullback of 7-10% from yesterday's close. However, considering the forces at work behind the market, nothing would come as a surprise these days as these markets are anything but orderly.
The real story of the day was in commodities, as everything - from wheat to oil - sold off viciously. More on that later.
Dow 11,691.18, +20.43 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,681.25, -10.27 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,270.20, -1.69 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 8,022.18, -21.79 (0.27%)
Declining issues beat advancing issues by a wide margin, 4262-2248. There were 146 new highs on the NASDAQ, and just 3 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs buried new lows, 200-9. As mentioned yesterday, these numbers are at extremes, cannot be maintained and the fallout is likely to be severe, unless we're entering some new Twilight Zone of prosperity, complete with flying unicorns, fairy princesses and mushrooms made of gold.
NASDAQ Volume 2,034,894,250
NYSE Volume 5,395,944,500
In the commodity space, it was sell or be damned. Crude oil for February delivery - the front end NYMEX contract - lost $2.17, closing at $89.38, though it traded lower during the day. It would not be a shock to see oil head back into the low $80 range, being that the busy holiday season is over and the oil barons have skewered the driving public once again.
Gold was unmercifully slaughtered, losing $44.10 (-3%), to finish at $1,378.80. Silver was even more battered, losing over 5%, down $1.62, to $29.51. The precious metals r being routinely pumped and dumped by large hedge players, most notorious of the bunch, JP Morgan and HSBC, who are being sued for manipulation of the silver market. This move in the PMs is nothing to get excited about, for now. A reversal was due, but not to the extent of today's move. Given time, both gold and silver will attain new heights as the kleptocracy running Wall Street and the US government becomes more desperate every day.
One should not be persuaded to sell any gold or silver in this environment, as the metals have proven to be quite volatile and able to replace huge losses in a matter of weeks, or even days.
Please note: Part 2 of 2011 Predictions will appear tomorrow, with Part 3 on Friday
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