Like it or not, most of the people who watch these kinds of numbers generally accept what the BLS calls "data" as being somewhere close to the truth. Regardless of opinions on the birth-death metric, various seasonal adjustments and the entire methodology which leaves out discouraged workers, March non-farm payroll provided a boost to markets prior to the bell, posting a monthly jobs gain of 216,000.
Broken down, the private sector showed a gain of 230,000 jobs, while the public sector - government - shed 14,000 in March. That ticked the unemployment rate down to 8.8% and marked the first time in five years that private employers added more than 200,000 net new jobs.
In the widest general terms possible, it was rousing good news for the US economy and the stock market, whether the robust numbers are true or not. Stocks galloped out of the gate, gave much of their gains back in the afternoon and finished on an uptick.
Dow 12,376.72, +56.99 (0.46%)
NASDAQ 2,789.60, +8.53 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,332.41, +6.58 (0.50%)
NYSE Composite 8,469.34, +64.36 (0.77%)
Advancing issues led decliners by a solid margin, 4204-2339. NASDAQ showed 249 new highs and 29 new lows. The same spread was in effect on the NYSE, with 382 new highs and 12 new lows, even more an extreme spread than yesterday's already overbought situation. Volume was slightly better than the low, low numbers posted all week.
NASDAQ Volume 2,057,080,375
NYSE Volume 4,220,516,000
The bad news of the day came from the commodity space, where crude oil hit another 2 1/2 year high, closing at $107.94, up $1.22 on the day. With equities soaring and the outlook for extending the Fed's QE program past June dying on the vine, precious metals took an untimely hit, with gold dropping $11.00, to $1,428.90, and silver falling in tandem, down 16 cents, at $37.73.
As the second quarter starts out on a positive note, investors appear pleased with recent gains, unemployment actually appears to be on the wane and the governors of Federal Reserve are taking bows and praise for how they've handled the as-yet-unresolved financial crisis.
With the caveat that the financial media might be spinning everything a bit more positively than most would dare, America seems not ready to fall into the ocean of debt below it, nor does the congress have gained much in the way of fiscal restraint, though signs of progress have been noted, especially in the House of Representatives.
There's still enormous problems which have yet to be sorted out, but only the robustness of the American economy can be credited with having withstood shocks equally from the financial, natural and political spheres.
While this space has been generally devoted to the darker sides of the economic debate for quite some time, Mr. and Mrs. Average American don't read Fed minutes, track commodity prices or even understand what a credit default swap is. Rather, the bulwark of American enterprise wants only to go to work, receive a fair pay rate and raise their families.
It is a fact that Americans still maintain the highest standard of living on the planet and despite its detractors, maintains a safe, livable environment for even the poorest of its citizens. The world revolves around the US dollar, love it, hate it or loathe it, and it probably will for some time. There are many problems still needing correction, but for today at least, the dark clouds of the past few years seem to be parting and the sunshine of economic freedom is shining through.
Maybe the words of Peter Benenson, the English lawyer and founder of Amnesty International, are appropriate for today: "It is better to light a candle than curse the darkness."
Friday, April 1, 2011
Kicked Off Zero Hedge for Interposing Perception with Reality
Following the release of today's non-farm payroll for March (+216,000), the level of insanity at the usually-nutty-anyways Zero Hedge blog went over the edge as the site's operators simply could not stomach the idea that maybe the government can fudge statistics enough to "match the policy" (a term made popular during the Iraq War) with seven posts covering all angles on the NFP data.
Naturally, being that Zero Hedge is a hangout of gold bugs, canned food hoarders, survivalists, anarchists and iconoclasts of every stripe, the perception that 216,000 new jobs were created in March could not go unchallenged, so every attempt was made to discredit the government figures.
I applaud the efforts of Zero Hedge. They usually are pretty good at picking up on the daily failures and fabrications of the military industrial complex, and no doubt, CNBC and the shills for limitless stock buying (Perma-bulls) offer up an endless stream of material for their usual antiestablishment agenda.
But, I was surprised that upon posting some comments that drifted from the company line (government evil, bankers evil, Fed evil, gold and silver good), trying to rile up the assembled loonies, that my posting privileges had been summarily denied, my username deleted. When trying to post comments, I was met, not with a login prompt, but with this:
Now, I've been booted from message boards before, most notably on eBay, for disagreeing with policy, but getting kicked off Zero Hedge is another story altogether, because of what they are supposed to represent: an alternative view, a departure from the norm, a counterbalance to the mainstream media.
I normally like the site, generally get good ideas from their articles (mostly reprints or excerpts of stories posted elsewhere on the web) and post my own comments often. Being banned from posting there really gave me pause, though.
A couple of comments by me not in the general spirit... here's two:
and
That little bit of taunting was, I suppose, too much criticism to accept by the mongolian editorial board at Zero Hedge. One must not bite the hand that handles the daily propaganda feed. The politburo cannot be criticized and in no way can their secrets be exposed. One must drink the Kool-aid, no matter how distasteful the flavor.
I broke the unwritten rules. C'est la vie. Que sera, sera. I was banned.
The episode gave me pause to reflect upon exactly what Zero Hedge - modeled after the fictional movie Fight Club - actually represents. Capitalism would be a good start. After all, the site actively solicits donations in addition to running the maximum allotment of Google AdSense ads on their page(s).
They are no more anti-capitalist than the Wall Street Journal or the United Way in that regard. They need money to operate, just like the rest of us.
But banning from comment those who disagree or at times are critical - like me - effectively negates all of their very own Fight Club creed and substantially reduces their level of credibility to that of outright hypocrisy.
Maybe I missed something in the movie, something about the need to follow orders and obey, obey, OBEY! I'll have to watch Fight Club again, I guess, and search for more hidden meaning.
Or maybe Tyler Durden can enlighten me.
Somehow, I doubt that, because prosperity, whether imagined or real, is anathema to the Zero Hedge business model.
Fight Club should rename itself Punk Club.
Naturally, being that Zero Hedge is a hangout of gold bugs, canned food hoarders, survivalists, anarchists and iconoclasts of every stripe, the perception that 216,000 new jobs were created in March could not go unchallenged, so every attempt was made to discredit the government figures.
I applaud the efforts of Zero Hedge. They usually are pretty good at picking up on the daily failures and fabrications of the military industrial complex, and no doubt, CNBC and the shills for limitless stock buying (Perma-bulls) offer up an endless stream of material for their usual antiestablishment agenda.
But, I was surprised that upon posting some comments that drifted from the company line (government evil, bankers evil, Fed evil, gold and silver good), trying to rile up the assembled loonies, that my posting privileges had been summarily denied, my username deleted. When trying to post comments, I was met, not with a login prompt, but with this:
The username Fearless Rick has not been activated or is blocked.
Now, I've been booted from message boards before, most notably on eBay, for disagreeing with policy, but getting kicked off Zero Hedge is another story altogether, because of what they are supposed to represent: an alternative view, a departure from the norm, a counterbalance to the mainstream media.
I normally like the site, generally get good ideas from their articles (mostly reprints or excerpts of stories posted elsewhere on the web) and post my own comments often. Being banned from posting there really gave me pause, though.
A couple of comments by me not in the general spirit... here's two:
Where's Harry Wanger! He's kicked the crap out of most of our resident geniuses by picking stocks using the tried-and-true "throw darts" method.
Wall Street is laughing its ass off at ZH. Time to get back to work, serfs!
and
Over: 7 articles related to NFP. Number of typos in headlines: 2. TD needs to add +1 to the NFP data by hiring a proofreader.
Now, where's that CogDis guy? Zero Hedge readers are suffering from CD by not believing that government can create statistics to "match the policy." Now where did we hear that term before?
That little bit of taunting was, I suppose, too much criticism to accept by the mongolian editorial board at Zero Hedge. One must not bite the hand that handles the daily propaganda feed. The politburo cannot be criticized and in no way can their secrets be exposed. One must drink the Kool-aid, no matter how distasteful the flavor.
I broke the unwritten rules. C'est la vie. Que sera, sera. I was banned.
The episode gave me pause to reflect upon exactly what Zero Hedge - modeled after the fictional movie Fight Club - actually represents. Capitalism would be a good start. After all, the site actively solicits donations in addition to running the maximum allotment of Google AdSense ads on their page(s).
They are no more anti-capitalist than the Wall Street Journal or the United Way in that regard. They need money to operate, just like the rest of us.
But banning from comment those who disagree or at times are critical - like me - effectively negates all of their very own Fight Club creed and substantially reduces their level of credibility to that of outright hypocrisy.
Maybe I missed something in the movie, something about the need to follow orders and obey, obey, OBEY! I'll have to watch Fight Club again, I guess, and search for more hidden meaning.
Or maybe Tyler Durden can enlighten me.
Somehow, I doubt that, because prosperity, whether imagined or real, is anathema to the Zero Hedge business model.
Fight Club should rename itself Punk Club.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
What's This? Markets Lower? Metals Gain
Not much to say about today's action except that most of the moving was done in the final half hour of the session, probably due to some not wanting to be out in front of Friday's non-farm payroll data (expectations: +210,000).
Those running scared at the end of day can be excused for their skittishness as the markets posted their best first quarter gains since 1998, near the height of the tech boom.
Uncanny as that may seem, stocks are pretty much in a very overbought condition, by any standard, though it light of global conditions, it's extreme. That makes Friday a key date, not only because its the first day of the month, but also the first trading day of a new quarter. Recent history provides that first days of months over the past 18 months have been powerful uptrend days, though very few have also had jobs data tied to them as well.
That sets up interesting cross-currents for tomorrow, so rather than speculate, it may be wise to just let the chips fly - and fall - where they may.
However, with quarterly gains now locked in place, the wise guys might feel compelled to go short through tax day, as the markets still have not regained their February 18 highs. The truncated correction may begin to assert itself again, as might normal economic forces, though these can always be offset by the Fed handing fresh greenbacks to the Primary Dealers, sending stocks ever higher.
All that market noise might just render Friday a good day to start a three-day weekend.
Dow 12,319.73, -30.88 (0.25%)
NASDAQ 2,781.07, +4.28 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,325.83, +2.43 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 8,404.98, +11.71 (0.14%)
Advancing issues finished ahead of decliners again, 3779-2732. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 195, with 33 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 236 new highs, 15 new lows. Again, selective, but nonetheless, extreme. Volume put in another decent day, but still was nothing to get excited about.
NASDAQ Volume 1,920,940,625
NYSE Volume 4,253,768,000
West Texas Intermediate on the NYMEX posted a massive gain of $2.45, closing at $106.72, a 30-month high. Precious metals had a solid day, with gold up $15.10, to $1,438.90 and silver up 38 cents, to $37.89. Both are within a whisker of multi-year or all-time highs. April could be the month that gold finally rockets through resistance and goes ballistic, though the betting is that silver will outpace it. By the end of the month we could be seeing gold at $1520 and silver over $44 per ounce.
...and then, there's this brilliant opinion from an Irishman abroad:
Those running scared at the end of day can be excused for their skittishness as the markets posted their best first quarter gains since 1998, near the height of the tech boom.
Uncanny as that may seem, stocks are pretty much in a very overbought condition, by any standard, though it light of global conditions, it's extreme. That makes Friday a key date, not only because its the first day of the month, but also the first trading day of a new quarter. Recent history provides that first days of months over the past 18 months have been powerful uptrend days, though very few have also had jobs data tied to them as well.
That sets up interesting cross-currents for tomorrow, so rather than speculate, it may be wise to just let the chips fly - and fall - where they may.
However, with quarterly gains now locked in place, the wise guys might feel compelled to go short through tax day, as the markets still have not regained their February 18 highs. The truncated correction may begin to assert itself again, as might normal economic forces, though these can always be offset by the Fed handing fresh greenbacks to the Primary Dealers, sending stocks ever higher.
All that market noise might just render Friday a good day to start a three-day weekend.
Dow 12,319.73, -30.88 (0.25%)
NASDAQ 2,781.07, +4.28 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,325.83, +2.43 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 8,404.98, +11.71 (0.14%)
Advancing issues finished ahead of decliners again, 3779-2732. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 195, with 33 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 236 new highs, 15 new lows. Again, selective, but nonetheless, extreme. Volume put in another decent day, but still was nothing to get excited about.
NASDAQ Volume 1,920,940,625
NYSE Volume 4,253,768,000
West Texas Intermediate on the NYMEX posted a massive gain of $2.45, closing at $106.72, a 30-month high. Precious metals had a solid day, with gold up $15.10, to $1,438.90 and silver up 38 cents, to $37.89. Both are within a whisker of multi-year or all-time highs. April could be the month that gold finally rockets through resistance and goes ballistic, though the betting is that silver will outpace it. By the end of the month we could be seeing gold at $1520 and silver over $44 per ounce.
...and then, there's this brilliant opinion from an Irishman abroad:
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Markets Continue to Rally in Spite of World Tensions
Honestly, I've never - in more than 40 years of market-watching - seen anything quite as obnoxious, illogical, repugnant and obscene as the current market dynamics.
Japan is reeling from the tsunami of nearly three weeks ago, their nuclear disaster continues to worsen, and all the Wall Street mob can do is push stocks higher and higher.
Housing is still in a major depression, real unemployment is at 17%, states and cities are struggling to balance their budgets, Northern Africa and the Middle East are in flames and revolution. Somehow, Wall Street imagines this to be bullish.
I consider it a trap, designed to entice small investors to plunge into stocks just when they are approaching the most overbought condition in the past two years, spurred on by free money being pumped in by the Federal Reserve and just before the release of first quarter earnings statements.
It's difficult to believe anything put out for inspection by the financial media, as controlled as it is by the Wall Street elite and how piously they - CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal - pray at the font of greed and lasciviousness.
Someone said the other day that we have become George Orwell's 1984 - forever at war with Eastasia or Eurasia, where doublespeak is the norm, and where love is hate, evil is good, and thoughtcrime is prosecutable.
We've passed into an era of extreme income disparity, and the elitists are, as usual, winning. Ever so slowly, the entire population of the planet is being lied to, poisoned, swindled and debased. Something has to change. But, there is so much cognitive dissonance within the general population, I fear nothing will change. We will - with the exception of a few - accept our fate willingly and go about our dreary days without purpose, without cause and without a future.
Dow 12,350.61, +71.60 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 2,776.79, +19.90 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,328.26, +8.82 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,416.69, +71.31 (0.85%)
Once again, advancing issues led decliners, 4709-1835. The NASDAQ showed 192 new highs and 23 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 262 new highs and 12 new lows. Absurd. Volume was a little better than the previous two days, but only marginally so.
NASDAQ Volume 1,829,250,875
NYSE Volume 4,167,294,000
Oil eased off a bit today, down 52 cents, to $104.27, though still stubbornly clinging to the new, semi-permanent $105 area. Gold gained $7.50, to 1,423.80, and silver was up 52 cents, to $37.51.
Prior to the market open, the ADP private payroll data was announced for March, showing a gain of 201,000 new jobs. Usually disregarded as a flawed survey, today it was warmly embraced by the financial media elite, in advance of Friday's March non farm payroll numbers.
Does it matter? Even if the government announces that unemployment is 8.5% (laughable, though they might), the new jobs are paying 60-80% of what the lost jobs did. The middle class continues to be squeezed to death by income stagnation and inflation in prices for everyday living goods, gas, food, utilities, clothing.
Where will it end? When will it end?
Japan is reeling from the tsunami of nearly three weeks ago, their nuclear disaster continues to worsen, and all the Wall Street mob can do is push stocks higher and higher.
Housing is still in a major depression, real unemployment is at 17%, states and cities are struggling to balance their budgets, Northern Africa and the Middle East are in flames and revolution. Somehow, Wall Street imagines this to be bullish.
I consider it a trap, designed to entice small investors to plunge into stocks just when they are approaching the most overbought condition in the past two years, spurred on by free money being pumped in by the Federal Reserve and just before the release of first quarter earnings statements.
It's difficult to believe anything put out for inspection by the financial media, as controlled as it is by the Wall Street elite and how piously they - CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal - pray at the font of greed and lasciviousness.
Someone said the other day that we have become George Orwell's 1984 - forever at war with Eastasia or Eurasia, where doublespeak is the norm, and where love is hate, evil is good, and thoughtcrime is prosecutable.
We've passed into an era of extreme income disparity, and the elitists are, as usual, winning. Ever so slowly, the entire population of the planet is being lied to, poisoned, swindled and debased. Something has to change. But, there is so much cognitive dissonance within the general population, I fear nothing will change. We will - with the exception of a few - accept our fate willingly and go about our dreary days without purpose, without cause and without a future.
Dow 12,350.61, +71.60 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 2,776.79, +19.90 (0.72%)
S&P 500 1,328.26, +8.82 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,416.69, +71.31 (0.85%)
Once again, advancing issues led decliners, 4709-1835. The NASDAQ showed 192 new highs and 23 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 262 new highs and 12 new lows. Absurd. Volume was a little better than the previous two days, but only marginally so.
NASDAQ Volume 1,829,250,875
NYSE Volume 4,167,294,000
Oil eased off a bit today, down 52 cents, to $104.27, though still stubbornly clinging to the new, semi-permanent $105 area. Gold gained $7.50, to 1,423.80, and silver was up 52 cents, to $37.51.
Prior to the market open, the ADP private payroll data was announced for March, showing a gain of 201,000 new jobs. Usually disregarded as a flawed survey, today it was warmly embraced by the financial media elite, in advance of Friday's March non farm payroll numbers.
Does it matter? Even if the government announces that unemployment is 8.5% (laughable, though they might), the new jobs are paying 60-80% of what the lost jobs did. The middle class continues to be squeezed to death by income stagnation and inflation in prices for everyday living goods, gas, food, utilities, clothing.
Where will it end? When will it end?
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
While Japan Melts Down, US Stocks Melt Up
Though many doubted the thrust and wisdom of the Federal Reserve's QE2 and ZIRP efforts, the Fed can now claim some success.
That success, however, is limited to one's perception. If higher commodity, food and energy prices, a completely collapsed housing market and a stock market rally in which almost nobody participates is one's idea of success, then a big hand for Chairman Bernanke and his merry band of idiots otherwise known as the Board of Governors of the Fed.
It was reported yesterday in this space that trading volume had sunk to its lowest level of the year. Today's numbers were a mirror image, marking the two slowest trading days of the year, for sure, and possibly the lowest two-day total volume since sometime in 2009.
So much for the so-called wealth effect we hear so much about. The only investors actually trading are the Primary Dealers with their virtually-free POMO money. It's almost as though the markets have lost the confidence of the individual investor forever. Surely, those with pension funds tied to the market must be seeing better returns, but how long they will last is anyone's guess, though it's fair to say that as long as the Fed continues to throw $100 billion or more into the fray, stocks will keep rising. It's been about the easiest trade ever.
There isn't much more to say about today's gains other than they completely disregarded the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan, which is now almost completely out of control, as one reactor appears to have melted through its containment vessel.
The wild-eyed buyers of today also paid no heed to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index, which confirmed that housing has entered the double-dip phase, falling for the sixth consecutive month. Of course, that would assume that one believes the first dip ever ended.
And everybody simply looked the other way when the Conference Board showed its index of consumer confidence fell to 63.4 this month, from a revised 72.0 in February.
Apparently, we mere mortals simply don't understand the stock market, where news is always bullish, no matter how bad it is. Supposedly, a comet obliterating all of Europe would be cause for a 1000-point rally according to the current metrics.
Whatever is going on down on the trading floors and at the desks of the biggest brokerages, it simply doesn't jibe with reality, but that's what we've got, a rogue market on its very own illogical trajectory.
Dow 12,279.01, +81.13 (0.67%)
NASDAQ 2,756.89, +26.21 (0.96%)
S&P 500 1,319.44, +9.25 (0.71%)
NYSE Composite 8,345.38, +48.86 (0.59%)
Advancers led decliners, 4381-2145. The NASDAQ reported 114 new highs and 27 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 117 new highs and 12 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,610,826,875
NYSE Volume 3,856,315,250
Commodities were mixed, with oil up 81 cents on the front-end WTI contract, to $104.79. Gold slipped $3.70, to $1,416.20 and silver fell 10 cents, to $36.99 per ounce.
This represents one of the more confusing markets in history. Bad news simply will not move stocks to the downside, and any downward move is met with a rally in short order, wiping away any and all losses in a matter or days, or hours.
Hardly mentioned is the upcoming non-farm payroll data courtesy of the BLS on April 1, this Friday, though prior to that, on Wednesday, ADP will report their proprietary survey of private sector employment. That little nugget will be released at 8:15 am, EDT, though it's generally not a market mover, being widely discredited as being unreliable.
This is fun for somebody, but who that might be remains a mystery.
That success, however, is limited to one's perception. If higher commodity, food and energy prices, a completely collapsed housing market and a stock market rally in which almost nobody participates is one's idea of success, then a big hand for Chairman Bernanke and his merry band of idiots otherwise known as the Board of Governors of the Fed.
It was reported yesterday in this space that trading volume had sunk to its lowest level of the year. Today's numbers were a mirror image, marking the two slowest trading days of the year, for sure, and possibly the lowest two-day total volume since sometime in 2009.
So much for the so-called wealth effect we hear so much about. The only investors actually trading are the Primary Dealers with their virtually-free POMO money. It's almost as though the markets have lost the confidence of the individual investor forever. Surely, those with pension funds tied to the market must be seeing better returns, but how long they will last is anyone's guess, though it's fair to say that as long as the Fed continues to throw $100 billion or more into the fray, stocks will keep rising. It's been about the easiest trade ever.
There isn't much more to say about today's gains other than they completely disregarded the situation at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan, which is now almost completely out of control, as one reactor appears to have melted through its containment vessel.
The wild-eyed buyers of today also paid no heed to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index, which confirmed that housing has entered the double-dip phase, falling for the sixth consecutive month. Of course, that would assume that one believes the first dip ever ended.
And everybody simply looked the other way when the Conference Board showed its index of consumer confidence fell to 63.4 this month, from a revised 72.0 in February.
Apparently, we mere mortals simply don't understand the stock market, where news is always bullish, no matter how bad it is. Supposedly, a comet obliterating all of Europe would be cause for a 1000-point rally according to the current metrics.
Whatever is going on down on the trading floors and at the desks of the biggest brokerages, it simply doesn't jibe with reality, but that's what we've got, a rogue market on its very own illogical trajectory.
Dow 12,279.01, +81.13 (0.67%)
NASDAQ 2,756.89, +26.21 (0.96%)
S&P 500 1,319.44, +9.25 (0.71%)
NYSE Composite 8,345.38, +48.86 (0.59%)
Advancers led decliners, 4381-2145. The NASDAQ reported 114 new highs and 27 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 117 new highs and 12 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,610,826,875
NYSE Volume 3,856,315,250
Commodities were mixed, with oil up 81 cents on the front-end WTI contract, to $104.79. Gold slipped $3.70, to $1,416.20 and silver fell 10 cents, to $36.99 per ounce.
This represents one of the more confusing markets in history. Bad news simply will not move stocks to the downside, and any downward move is met with a rally in short order, wiping away any and all losses in a matter or days, or hours.
Hardly mentioned is the upcoming non-farm payroll data courtesy of the BLS on April 1, this Friday, though prior to that, on Wednesday, ADP will report their proprietary survey of private sector employment. That little nugget will be released at 8:15 am, EDT, though it's generally not a market mover, being widely discredited as being unreliable.
This is fun for somebody, but who that might be remains a mystery.
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