One might have expected some kind of reaction from the stock market after Friday night's final hour deal to keep the government running, or even from advance interest in the deluge of upcoming corporate earnings reports, but, despite an early session push higher, stocks drifted lower and lower throughout the session.
The Dow jumped out of the gate to an early high, up 62 points, but gave all expect one paltry point back as the day progressed.
While the theory may be that the government was supposed to remain open and in business, so no, the stock market would not react, the reality is that since the major indices bumped headlong into resistance on Wednesday, there's been nothing but retreat and even a robust earnings season (which is unlikely) may not be able to shake the markets from their sideways-down direction.
On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials, the smallest index by numbers (30 stocks), though the largest by measure, was the only one to post a gain in any of the past three sessions, and even that was somewhat of an aberration caused by heavy buying of Alcoa at the close.
As it was, Alcoa (AA), the world's largest aluminum manufacturer, and traditionally the first company in the Dow to report, was off 15 cents at the close (17.77) and was trading marginally higher (+0.06) in after-hours trading. The company reported earnings of 28 cents per share, a penny above estimates, but revenue short of expectations by almost two per cent.
Dow 12,381.11, +1.06 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,771.51, -8.91 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,324.46, -3.71 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 8,445.77, -38.17 (0.45%)
Even though stocks finished with small movement, declining issues danced all over advancers, 4471-2165, a ratio of more than 2:1. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled a mere 59, with 32hitting new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led the way, 108-16, over new lows. Volume, on the first day of the week, was encouraging, as it was not horrible, though still just barely with a pulse.
NASDAQ Volume 2,039,947,625
NYSE Volume 3,841,427,750
Thanks to some large positions being taken off, notably by Goldman Sachs, the oil rally came to an abrupt halt on Monday. WTI crude futures fell $2.85, to $109.92 and were down even more after the NYMEX close. Gold dropped $6.00, to $1,468.10, while silver managed to remain flat, at $40.61.
With the budget deal due to be singed and passed sometime this week, investors will be focusing squarely on quarterly reports over the next few weeks, and prospects are said to be good, with the vast majority of companies meeting or beating Wall Street expectations.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Saturday, April 9, 2011
The Morning After: Budget Battle Bad Drama
With apologies to anyone with an IQ over 40, the entire week-long, all-enveloping budget fight and threatened government shutdown was nothing more than a well-orchestrated test run on the American psyche.
There was never any chance of the government shutting down over the slim array of ideological and money issues which faced congress and the president, and in the end, what actually emerged from the "eleventh hour" save of face was not a deal to end the budget debate, but a deal to extend it a week further, with new conditions, including a rider to limit abortions in the District of Columbia and another that promises studies to be conducted on the financial regulation measures passed last year, known as Dodd-Frank.
In the end, the congress and the president only agreed to extend the process another week, so there's still a possibility that negotiations could drag into another government shutdown scenario, though that seems unlikely.
The more plausible case is that lawmakers finally close the books on the 2011 budget, the Republicans get roughly $38.5 billion in cuts, funding for NPR and Planned Parenthood is retained, and the fight resumes over raising the debt ceiling in the next few weeks.
That fight may be even more precarious, as Tea Party Republicans will once again threaten to shut down the government instead of approving more borrowing and spending.
What has become clear from the recent budget spates is that the key actors - Senator Harry Reid, House leader Boehner and president Obama, have demonstrated a willingness to put drama before rational governance and to use the American public as pawns in their inside game of chicken.
If a deal is struck - finally - by Thursday or Friday (still unclear as to the exact next shutdown clock), then the 2011 budget can finally be put to rest.
Through this entire process, though especially at the end, the politicians were roundly criticized for their bickering and theatrics. A government shutdown - which still may occur - was widely hailed as unacceptable by Americans across a broad spectrum and the lawmakers took heed, rushed back to their conferences and passed a bill to avert a shutdown at the last minute.
It's pretty clear that had public support favored a shutdown, congress would have gone home and taken a few days off. Expect the next threatened shutdown to include paying active military service members but not much else. The plan is still on the tables of both parties to furlough up to 800,000 non-essential federal employees, with the goal being a permanent reduction in the federal workforce.
This most recent ploy was just a warm-up act. The real deal or no deal will come later this year, possibly this month.
There was never any chance of the government shutting down over the slim array of ideological and money issues which faced congress and the president, and in the end, what actually emerged from the "eleventh hour" save of face was not a deal to end the budget debate, but a deal to extend it a week further, with new conditions, including a rider to limit abortions in the District of Columbia and another that promises studies to be conducted on the financial regulation measures passed last year, known as Dodd-Frank.
In the end, the congress and the president only agreed to extend the process another week, so there's still a possibility that negotiations could drag into another government shutdown scenario, though that seems unlikely.
The more plausible case is that lawmakers finally close the books on the 2011 budget, the Republicans get roughly $38.5 billion in cuts, funding for NPR and Planned Parenthood is retained, and the fight resumes over raising the debt ceiling in the next few weeks.
That fight may be even more precarious, as Tea Party Republicans will once again threaten to shut down the government instead of approving more borrowing and spending.
What has become clear from the recent budget spates is that the key actors - Senator Harry Reid, House leader Boehner and president Obama, have demonstrated a willingness to put drama before rational governance and to use the American public as pawns in their inside game of chicken.
If a deal is struck - finally - by Thursday or Friday (still unclear as to the exact next shutdown clock), then the 2011 budget can finally be put to rest.
Through this entire process, though especially at the end, the politicians were roundly criticized for their bickering and theatrics. A government shutdown - which still may occur - was widely hailed as unacceptable by Americans across a broad spectrum and the lawmakers took heed, rushed back to their conferences and passed a bill to avert a shutdown at the last minute.
It's pretty clear that had public support favored a shutdown, congress would have gone home and taken a few days off. Expect the next threatened shutdown to include paying active military service members but not much else. The plan is still on the tables of both parties to furlough up to 800,000 non-essential federal employees, with the goal being a permanent reduction in the federal workforce.
This most recent ploy was just a warm-up act. The real deal or no deal will come later this year, possibly this month.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Deal on Budget Announced, Not Final, Government Remains in Business... for now
Within the past few moments, House Speaker John Boehner made a brief appearance and announced that a deal for funding the remainder of the 2011 budget has been reached.
Since the hour is so late, the House and Senate must vote on what turns out to be the seventh continuing resolution to keep the government functioning. Said resolution will fund the government for the next four or five days (Boehner did not go into specifics) until the final bill is written, approved and delivered to both houses, voted upon and eventually submitted to the president.
The final budget agreement should be completed and passed in law by mid-week, according to Boehner and other sources close to the negotiations, though neither Senator Reid, majority leader in the Senate, nor President Obama has yet to comment.
In the final analysis - and, it should be noted that this is by no means final - this entire exercise has been a prime example of the abject failure that is our federal government. The suspected cuts come to about $39 billion, but do not include any cuts to the defense department and are mostly directed at programs that affect primarily lower and middle class citizens.
The lawmakers missed the deadline. They will not vote on the continuing resolution until after midnight. A small technicality, but sometimes, detail matters, a fact completely lost on the current crop of poseur politicians in our nation's capitol.
The rape of our nation and much of the planet will continue. We remain the laughing stock of the world, our position in first place remains unchallenged in any way.
Added, 11:15 pm EDT: President Obama and Senator Reid have just spoken, both confirm that a deal has been struck. Reid confirms that the continuing resolution will last through Thursday (six full days for it to all fall apart, again).
Senator Mitch McConnell, the senate minority leader, could not resist the temptation to flap his gums a bit. Said little of importance, as usual. Everybody takes victory laps, even though nobody won.
Next up are showdowns on raising the debt ceiling and the fiscal year 2012 budget. This is not over, not by a long shot. This is only the beginning of more and more politics, all leading up to the general elections in 2012, should we all not die of boredom or disgust before then.
Since the hour is so late, the House and Senate must vote on what turns out to be the seventh continuing resolution to keep the government functioning. Said resolution will fund the government for the next four or five days (Boehner did not go into specifics) until the final bill is written, approved and delivered to both houses, voted upon and eventually submitted to the president.
The final budget agreement should be completed and passed in law by mid-week, according to Boehner and other sources close to the negotiations, though neither Senator Reid, majority leader in the Senate, nor President Obama has yet to comment.
In the final analysis - and, it should be noted that this is by no means final - this entire exercise has been a prime example of the abject failure that is our federal government. The suspected cuts come to about $39 billion, but do not include any cuts to the defense department and are mostly directed at programs that affect primarily lower and middle class citizens.
The lawmakers missed the deadline. They will not vote on the continuing resolution until after midnight. A small technicality, but sometimes, detail matters, a fact completely lost on the current crop of poseur politicians in our nation's capitol.
The rape of our nation and much of the planet will continue. We remain the laughing stock of the world, our position in first place remains unchallenged in any way.
Added, 11:15 pm EDT: President Obama and Senator Reid have just spoken, both confirm that a deal has been struck. Reid confirms that the continuing resolution will last through Thursday (six full days for it to all fall apart, again).
Senator Mitch McConnell, the senate minority leader, could not resist the temptation to flap his gums a bit. Said little of importance, as usual. Everybody takes victory laps, even though nobody won.
Next up are showdowns on raising the debt ceiling and the fiscal year 2012 budget. This is not over, not by a long shot. This is only the beginning of more and more politics, all leading up to the general elections in 2012, should we all not die of boredom or disgust before then.
Three Hours Remain for Congress to Settle Budget Differences
Despite the glaring obviousness of the headline, there seems to be renewed energy that a deal will be struck before the stroke of midnight, as though that specific time would matter.
Knowing how this entire fiasco of a pubic relations event has thus far unfolded, one could assume that the squabbling and posturing (because that's all it is) will continue until after midnight before any kind of resolution can be found. Word has it that another in a series of continuing resolutions could keep negotiations ongoing over the weekend and keep the government from an "official" shutdown.
The alternative view is that the House Republicans will be seen as villains for slamming the doors over a paltry $350 million earmarked for Planned Parenthood, and, despite the innuendo, none of which money would be used for abortions.
A complete canard is what this Republican gambit is, in reality. It has nothing to do with cutting spending and is only a ploy with a dual intent, to have the government shut down and to make Democrats look bad in so doing. Thus far, it's a huge failure for the party of Lincoln.
If an agreement is to come about before the midnight deadline, it certainly will not be substantive, and it certainly will not address any of the real concerns foremost on the minds of most Americans. Taking the hubris further, expect, if no agreement is reached, for an extended period of unease and disruption, which is probably what at least one of the parties would like.
Another possible development is that in the case of a shutdown, and a prolonged one, watch for arguments to emerge based upon permanently cutting some of the 800,000 federal workers who would be furloughed without pay. By making some of the cuts permanent, the government could save billions. For instance, cutting the government workforce by 200,000 (one quarter of those being forced to stay home) could save $15 billion, using a figure of $75,000 as the average annual pay. Might be a good start.
If they're going to do anything, and I've held that neither side actually wants to pass this particular budget, they'd better get a move on. Just getting everyone back to the assembly when they're all out playing cards or having cocktails will take an hour or more alone.
This is political theater at its very worst. Two little schoolgirls could put on a better drama in their living room. The sad part is that it's only going to get worse from here. This congress is completely off the rails and out of touch with the American people. Shutting down government would be a good start if only we could begin by sending the congress critters home first.
Of course, this would soon shift these
Knowing how this entire fiasco of a pubic relations event has thus far unfolded, one could assume that the squabbling and posturing (because that's all it is) will continue until after midnight before any kind of resolution can be found. Word has it that another in a series of continuing resolutions could keep negotiations ongoing over the weekend and keep the government from an "official" shutdown.
The alternative view is that the House Republicans will be seen as villains for slamming the doors over a paltry $350 million earmarked for Planned Parenthood, and, despite the innuendo, none of which money would be used for abortions.
A complete canard is what this Republican gambit is, in reality. It has nothing to do with cutting spending and is only a ploy with a dual intent, to have the government shut down and to make Democrats look bad in so doing. Thus far, it's a huge failure for the party of Lincoln.
If an agreement is to come about before the midnight deadline, it certainly will not be substantive, and it certainly will not address any of the real concerns foremost on the minds of most Americans. Taking the hubris further, expect, if no agreement is reached, for an extended period of unease and disruption, which is probably what at least one of the parties would like.
Another possible development is that in the case of a shutdown, and a prolonged one, watch for arguments to emerge based upon permanently cutting some of the 800,000 federal workers who would be furloughed without pay. By making some of the cuts permanent, the government could save billions. For instance, cutting the government workforce by 200,000 (one quarter of those being forced to stay home) could save $15 billion, using a figure of $75,000 as the average annual pay. Might be a good start.
If they're going to do anything, and I've held that neither side actually wants to pass this particular budget, they'd better get a move on. Just getting everyone back to the assembly when they're all out playing cards or having cocktails will take an hour or more alone.
This is political theater at its very worst. Two little schoolgirls could put on a better drama in their living room. The sad part is that it's only going to get worse from here. This congress is completely off the rails and out of touch with the American people. Shutting down government would be a good start if only we could begin by sending the congress critters home first.
Of course, this would soon shift these
Ahead of Government Failure, Markets Shaky, Silver Sizzles
As the clock wends its way toward midnight and a shutdown of non-essential government functions, stock players were still hedging their bets, generally showing a preference for playing the waiting game until Monday when word will be official.
That's probably a pretty stupid position, given that Republicans and Democrats are ideologically miles apart and the best time to avert a crisis would have been weeks, if not months, ago. While there still remains a slight chance that the federal government will go into full-blown shutdown, as of this writing - shortly after 4:00 pm EDT - the odds are heavily in favor of the morons in Washington putting politics ahead of principles and allowing the government to shut down.
This they do at their own peril, though the geniuses who call themselves senators and representatives would be hard-pressed to believe that the American people will have lost all faith in their ability to lead and/or govern and/or legislate. By and large, with the notable exception of Tea Partiers and anarchists everywhere, are stridently against the government closing down, be it for a week, a month, or longer.
And, strangely enough, the things most people would like to see halted, will continue. Our troops will still be fighting worthless, nothing-to-gain wars in various countries, TSA agents will continue pat-downs on ordinary citizens, and the worst of it, elected officials will continue to be paid, while some 800,000 regular federal employees will have to fend for themselves without the benefit of a regular paycheck. In fact, even our fighting men and women, half a world away, will not receive their paychecks.
Naturally, the IRS will continue to process electronic returns, though refunds will more than likely be delayed. Social Security checks will still go out on time - for now. An extended absence of the federal government might turn out to be just what the country needs, though judging by the average intelligence of the hands-out American sheeple, there will be plenty of hand-wringing, despair and repercussions not as yet unveiled to either the politicians or the general populace.
As for the markets, they will continue in denial until it becomes evident that shuttering various branches of government and putting almost a million people out of work without pay (when do these federal employees become eligible for unemployment compensation?) indefinitely is going to cause the wheels of commerce to slow to a crawl.
We are under eight hours and counting down...
Dow 12,380.05, -29.44 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,780.41, -15.73 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,328.17, -5.34 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,483.94, -5.39 (0.06%)
Stocks held up pretty well considering the overhanging circumstances. The Dow was down more than 80 points at its afternoon lows, but the markets spent much of the session merely marking time. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 4205-2275, nearly a 2:1 ratio. The NASDAQ produced only 66 new highs and 29 new lows, while on the NYSE, there were 164 new highs and only 11 new lows. Obviously, there is less appetite for high beta NASDAQ stocks for the moment, though it should also be noted that volume was dismal once again.
NASDAQ Volume 1,632,480,125
NYSE Volume 3,950,118,750
The big winners on the day were commodities, the losers anybody who eats or drives. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit another 32-month high, gaining $2.49, to close out the week at $112.79. By Sunday, gas prices in the US will average close to $3.80 per gallon, though this number could be a high, if federal employees are furloughed, not having to drive to work.
The real stars were the precious metals. At 4:30 pm EDT, gold was sitting at a new all-time high of $1474.50, up $16.10 on the day. Silver continued its very own moon shot, gaining $1.27, to $40.91, another 31-year high mark, with no stopping in sight. Gold and silver will continue to rise against all currencies until structural changes in central bank policy occur, which, with the Fed continuing to print money at a non-stop clip, appears to be roughly, never.
What the real impact of a federal government shutdown will be is still residing in the realm of the unknown, though one should expect the unexpected. As black swans go, this one could be darker and larger than most.
Money Daily will update as events warrant.
That's probably a pretty stupid position, given that Republicans and Democrats are ideologically miles apart and the best time to avert a crisis would have been weeks, if not months, ago. While there still remains a slight chance that the federal government will go into full-blown shutdown, as of this writing - shortly after 4:00 pm EDT - the odds are heavily in favor of the morons in Washington putting politics ahead of principles and allowing the government to shut down.
This they do at their own peril, though the geniuses who call themselves senators and representatives would be hard-pressed to believe that the American people will have lost all faith in their ability to lead and/or govern and/or legislate. By and large, with the notable exception of Tea Partiers and anarchists everywhere, are stridently against the government closing down, be it for a week, a month, or longer.
And, strangely enough, the things most people would like to see halted, will continue. Our troops will still be fighting worthless, nothing-to-gain wars in various countries, TSA agents will continue pat-downs on ordinary citizens, and the worst of it, elected officials will continue to be paid, while some 800,000 regular federal employees will have to fend for themselves without the benefit of a regular paycheck. In fact, even our fighting men and women, half a world away, will not receive their paychecks.
Naturally, the IRS will continue to process electronic returns, though refunds will more than likely be delayed. Social Security checks will still go out on time - for now. An extended absence of the federal government might turn out to be just what the country needs, though judging by the average intelligence of the hands-out American sheeple, there will be plenty of hand-wringing, despair and repercussions not as yet unveiled to either the politicians or the general populace.
As for the markets, they will continue in denial until it becomes evident that shuttering various branches of government and putting almost a million people out of work without pay (when do these federal employees become eligible for unemployment compensation?) indefinitely is going to cause the wheels of commerce to slow to a crawl.
We are under eight hours and counting down...
Dow 12,380.05, -29.44 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 2,780.41, -15.73 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,328.17, -5.34 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,483.94, -5.39 (0.06%)
Stocks held up pretty well considering the overhanging circumstances. The Dow was down more than 80 points at its afternoon lows, but the markets spent much of the session merely marking time. Declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 4205-2275, nearly a 2:1 ratio. The NASDAQ produced only 66 new highs and 29 new lows, while on the NYSE, there were 164 new highs and only 11 new lows. Obviously, there is less appetite for high beta NASDAQ stocks for the moment, though it should also be noted that volume was dismal once again.
NASDAQ Volume 1,632,480,125
NYSE Volume 3,950,118,750
The big winners on the day were commodities, the losers anybody who eats or drives. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures hit another 32-month high, gaining $2.49, to close out the week at $112.79. By Sunday, gas prices in the US will average close to $3.80 per gallon, though this number could be a high, if federal employees are furloughed, not having to drive to work.
The real stars were the precious metals. At 4:30 pm EDT, gold was sitting at a new all-time high of $1474.50, up $16.10 on the day. Silver continued its very own moon shot, gaining $1.27, to $40.91, another 31-year high mark, with no stopping in sight. Gold and silver will continue to rise against all currencies until structural changes in central bank policy occur, which, with the Fed continuing to print money at a non-stop clip, appears to be roughly, never.
What the real impact of a federal government shutdown will be is still residing in the realm of the unknown, though one should expect the unexpected. As black swans go, this one could be darker and larger than most.
Money Daily will update as events warrant.
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