For those who have to stay focused on the stock my for a living, condolences, for today was the culmination of three of the most boring, low-volume events in the history of the NYSE.
Stocks managed to eek out marginal gains.
There was an almost total news blackout as traders made their way to the Hamptons for the weekend.
Dow 12,441.58, +38.82 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,796.86, +13.94 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,331.10, +5.41 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,386.34, +44.68 (0.54%)
Advancers topped decliners, 4566-1953. On the NASDAQ, 87 new highs exceeded 33 new lows. The NYSE recorded 112 new highs and just 8 new lows. Combined, 199 new highs, 41 new lows. Crisis averted, for now. Volume: lowest of the year.
NASDAQ Volume 1,642,331,625
NYSE Volume 3,111,512,000
Crude oil gained 36 cents to finish the week at $100.59. Gold was the big winner for the day, gaining $17.00, to $1536.40. Silver tacked on 76 cents, to end at $37.95.
Nothing much of substance to report, except that the beer is cold and the grill, hot.
Have a great weekend. See you Tuesday, May 31.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Bye, Bye, American Pie
There are only a few facts that need to be known to understand what happened today on Wall Street, and, believe me, it wasn't nearly worth the effort.
New unemployment claims came in at 425,000, up 10,000 from an upwardly-revised (always) 414,000.
The government's second (rhymes with fecund) estimate of 1st quarter GDP was 1.8%, the same as the first estimate, but measured differently. For instance, the price index for US domestic purchases increased by 3.8% and motor vehicle output added 1.28% to real GDP for the quarter. Translation: inflation was the main driver behind the poor 1.8% gain and a lot of cars were produced, but only a fraction of that number were unsold. Were it not for government sleight of hand, we'd be going backwards, which we are, but nobody wants to use the "R" word just yet. Forget about growth in this environment. It's a mirage. Survival will be the operative term for the next five years, as it has been for the last three.
It was one of the five slowest trading day of the year thus far. The Dow was down as much as 76 points early on, up as much as 47 later and finished nearly flat.
In other words, if all the traders, bankers, money managers and other financial gurus had stayed home and done nothing, the same result could have been mailed in from a remote location without all the fuss. Tomorrow will likely be ever more boringly stupid as we approach a three-day weekend.
Judging by GDP, our elected officials reluctance to do anything constructive and the general lack of regard by the public, it's a safe bet that we've ceased to be a nation of people and are now just an amorphous aggregation of individuals foraging for life support. America is a dead duck and all that's left are whatever crumbs one can pick from others.
Today may not have been the day the Republic died - that was probably years ago - but anyone who believes that there's a future here is really on some powerful meds and should share with the rest of us.
The federal government is busily raiding the retirement funds of federal employees and will be coming after similar state funds in due time, then private accounts. Eventually, the banker class will have stripped the country of all assets, in plain sight of the populace. Bye, bye, American Pie. The levy truly is dry.
Dow 12,402.76, +8.10 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,782.92, +21.54 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,325.69, +5.22 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,341.66, +46.29 (0.56%)
Advancing issues outpaced decliners, 4663-1852. New highs on the NASDAQ were 64, compared to 51 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 77 new highs and 29 new lows. Total: 141 highs, 80 new lows. Volume? No.
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,346,250
NYSE Volume 3,656,113,250
Commodities were mostly down, with WTI crude oil off $1.09, to $100.23. Gold's latest reading was down $4.60, to $1521.20, with silver stepping in line, losing 50 cents, to $37.40.
Advice for Friday: Take the day off; make it a four-day weekend, maybe five.
New unemployment claims came in at 425,000, up 10,000 from an upwardly-revised (always) 414,000.
The government's second (rhymes with fecund) estimate of 1st quarter GDP was 1.8%, the same as the first estimate, but measured differently. For instance, the price index for US domestic purchases increased by 3.8% and motor vehicle output added 1.28% to real GDP for the quarter. Translation: inflation was the main driver behind the poor 1.8% gain and a lot of cars were produced, but only a fraction of that number were unsold. Were it not for government sleight of hand, we'd be going backwards, which we are, but nobody wants to use the "R" word just yet. Forget about growth in this environment. It's a mirage. Survival will be the operative term for the next five years, as it has been for the last three.
It was one of the five slowest trading day of the year thus far. The Dow was down as much as 76 points early on, up as much as 47 later and finished nearly flat.
In other words, if all the traders, bankers, money managers and other financial gurus had stayed home and done nothing, the same result could have been mailed in from a remote location without all the fuss. Tomorrow will likely be ever more boringly stupid as we approach a three-day weekend.
Judging by GDP, our elected officials reluctance to do anything constructive and the general lack of regard by the public, it's a safe bet that we've ceased to be a nation of people and are now just an amorphous aggregation of individuals foraging for life support. America is a dead duck and all that's left are whatever crumbs one can pick from others.
Today may not have been the day the Republic died - that was probably years ago - but anyone who believes that there's a future here is really on some powerful meds and should share with the rest of us.
The federal government is busily raiding the retirement funds of federal employees and will be coming after similar state funds in due time, then private accounts. Eventually, the banker class will have stripped the country of all assets, in plain sight of the populace. Bye, bye, American Pie. The levy truly is dry.
Dow 12,402.76, +8.10 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,782.92, +21.54 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,325.69, +5.22 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,341.66, +46.29 (0.56%)
Advancing issues outpaced decliners, 4663-1852. New highs on the NASDAQ were 64, compared to 51 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 77 new highs and 29 new lows. Total: 141 highs, 80 new lows. Volume? No.
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,346,250
NYSE Volume 3,656,113,250
Commodities were mostly down, with WTI crude oil off $1.09, to $100.23. Gold's latest reading was down $4.60, to $1521.20, with silver stepping in line, losing 50 cents, to $37.40.
Advice for Friday: Take the day off; make it a four-day weekend, maybe five.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Lack of Catalyst Encourages Buyers; Rally Fizzles at Close
 |
| Mark Haines |
As far as bounce-back rallies are concerned, this one rates at best a D-minus, for any number of reasons. First, there could not have been a more friendly environment to buy into; second, volume was so light a junior trader could have engineered a better bounce; third, the rally fizzled into the close, just like yesterday's 3:30 and beyond slip-slide.
Today's action was more a re-positioning of assets rather than a rally. For perspective, consider that the Dow dropped 250 points in the prior three sessions. Today's gain of less than 40 points was not even a quarter of that. The NASDAQ was down 77 points over the prior three sessions. The gains today were not meaningful.
Besides the untimely death of CNBC's Mark Haines, there was little to trade off of today, and most of it was bad news. Greece continues to twist in the wind of proposed EU austerity packages, all unacceptable and leading eventually to Greek default on their debt. Durable goods orders for April nose-dived, down 3.6% for the month, after a 4.4% gain in March. Estimates were for a 2% decline, so that was a pretty substantial miss. Investors seemed not to notice that all economic data has been either bad or horrifying the past two weeks.
Dow 12,394.66, +38.45 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,761.38, +15.22 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,320.47, +4.19 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,295.34, +42.88 (0.52%)
Winners took the measure of losing issues, 4336-2215. On the NASDAQ, 46 new highs, but 73 new lows. The NYSE showed 61 new highs and 35 new lows, making the combined total (the one that matters most) 106 new highs and 108 new lows, the second in the past three sessions that there have been more cumulative new lows than new highs. We are plumb out of adjectives to describe the ridiculously low volume on the markets. Sorry.
NASDAQ Volume 1,845,890,875
NYSE Volume 4,024,320,500
A weaker US dollar boosted commodities. Crude oil was up $1.55, to $101.32. AAA reports the average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas in the US at $3.81, about 14 cents lower than two weeks ago, offering a little bit of relief for over-burdened drivers.
Gold found some life, but was eventually blunted late in the day, losing 90 cents, to $1525.20. Silver had another good day, gaining $1.20, to $37.83 the ounce.
Thursday brings the usual scariness of initial and continuing unemployment claims, plus the added bonus of the second estimate on 1st quarter GDP. The initial estimate had the US economy growing at 1.8% and the consensus is for little change to that number.
And so we bump along, grinding lower in due time.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
The time has come, at last.
Almost anybody who is anybody on Wall Street is in agreement that the Fed's POMO-and-ZIRP-induced party has come to an end, and like all good party-goers, the hangovers are beginning to be felt.
Laughably, Goldman Sachs, the evil giant squid which everyone loves to hate, expects the party to go on without end, today boosting its outlook for oil to something ridiculous at about $130/barrel. Somebody needs to ease the Goldman boys away from the punch bowl, because they've obviously had too much. It takes less than a genius rationalization to understand that if everything begins going in reverse, oil cannot be priced higher. This simple, fundamental fact has apparently escaped the great minds in Goldman's glassy, lower-Manhattan towers.
Elsewhere, Greece steps closer and closer to defaulting on its debt. Not that Greece might one day default; it is an eventuality, and the sooner it gets over with it, the better. Yields on 10-year greek bonds have been running at about 25%, which would be a real find if they were actually going to pay them back. Of course, they're not, so whomever is loaning them money (there are a lot of silly people in this world) is exacting a pretty hefty price for the privilege.
Stocks went up, then down, then back up and finally, down into the close, a nifty continuation trade that began a few weeks ago and has been gathering momentum. The close today was rather dramtic, with loads of selling on pretty solid volume. Sooner or later, there will be a final flushing out of all the weak hands - and there are many - and a cataclysmic collapse in all the US - and global - stock indices.
We are heading into a frightening period of economic history, as nothing less than the actual value of money will be center stage. Today, $10 US could buy a couple of raw 8 oz. steaks of less-than premium quality. Tomorrow, who knows, maybe the same money could buy only a pound of bologna, or perhaps one could purchase premium sirloins. It all depends on the politics, the players and the public's acceptance of the value of a dollar, or two, or ten.
For the present, the US dollar still holds some value and still buys oil globally. That is the good news. The bad news is that there are a multitude of competing currencies, pricing strategies and unknowns that could change the course of economic history in a very short time. As the Fed unwinds its massive funding and balance sheet, all manner of nastiness could occur, though the current betting is on a mild dose of deflation, probably through the end of this year and into the first and second quarters of next. In other words, another year of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). After that, nobody knows, so plan accordingly. HA, ha, ha.
Dow 12,356.21, -25.05 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,746.16, -12.74 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,316.28, -1.09 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 8,252.46, -15.91 (0.19%)
Not unexpectedly, declining issues bettered advancers, 3587-2941. NASDAQ new highs: 48; new lows: 79. NYSE new highs: 74; new lows: 32. Combined new highs: 122; new lows: 111. A tenuous win for the bulls, but on slight, sell-weighted volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,880,249,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,757,500
Crude oil popped back over $100 per barrel on the back of Goldman's call, but it didn't hold, finishing with a gain of $1.89, to $99.59. Gold tracked higher by $8.10, currently at $1525.30. Silver blasted higher by $1.50, to $36.57. Apparently, faith in physical silver holdings has regained some degree of confidence, though there will certainly be more raids led by JP Morgan, hoping to keep a lid on the price. That's another eventuality; Morgan will fail.
Cash continues to hold a place of prominence in a multitude of portfolios, and for good reason. Bargains pop up nearly every day, and savvy buyers are keen to take appropriate advantage, though they should beware, as price discovery is more than ever more art than science.
Almost anybody who is anybody on Wall Street is in agreement that the Fed's POMO-and-ZIRP-induced party has come to an end, and like all good party-goers, the hangovers are beginning to be felt.
Laughably, Goldman Sachs, the evil giant squid which everyone loves to hate, expects the party to go on without end, today boosting its outlook for oil to something ridiculous at about $130/barrel. Somebody needs to ease the Goldman boys away from the punch bowl, because they've obviously had too much. It takes less than a genius rationalization to understand that if everything begins going in reverse, oil cannot be priced higher. This simple, fundamental fact has apparently escaped the great minds in Goldman's glassy, lower-Manhattan towers.
Elsewhere, Greece steps closer and closer to defaulting on its debt. Not that Greece might one day default; it is an eventuality, and the sooner it gets over with it, the better. Yields on 10-year greek bonds have been running at about 25%, which would be a real find if they were actually going to pay them back. Of course, they're not, so whomever is loaning them money (there are a lot of silly people in this world) is exacting a pretty hefty price for the privilege.
Stocks went up, then down, then back up and finally, down into the close, a nifty continuation trade that began a few weeks ago and has been gathering momentum. The close today was rather dramtic, with loads of selling on pretty solid volume. Sooner or later, there will be a final flushing out of all the weak hands - and there are many - and a cataclysmic collapse in all the US - and global - stock indices.
We are heading into a frightening period of economic history, as nothing less than the actual value of money will be center stage. Today, $10 US could buy a couple of raw 8 oz. steaks of less-than premium quality. Tomorrow, who knows, maybe the same money could buy only a pound of bologna, or perhaps one could purchase premium sirloins. It all depends on the politics, the players and the public's acceptance of the value of a dollar, or two, or ten.
For the present, the US dollar still holds some value and still buys oil globally. That is the good news. The bad news is that there are a multitude of competing currencies, pricing strategies and unknowns that could change the course of economic history in a very short time. As the Fed unwinds its massive funding and balance sheet, all manner of nastiness could occur, though the current betting is on a mild dose of deflation, probably through the end of this year and into the first and second quarters of next. In other words, another year of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). After that, nobody knows, so plan accordingly. HA, ha, ha.
Dow 12,356.21, -25.05 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,746.16, -12.74 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,316.28, -1.09 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 8,252.46, -15.91 (0.19%)
Not unexpectedly, declining issues bettered advancers, 3587-2941. NASDAQ new highs: 48; new lows: 79. NYSE new highs: 74; new lows: 32. Combined new highs: 122; new lows: 111. A tenuous win for the bulls, but on slight, sell-weighted volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,880,249,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,757,500
Crude oil popped back over $100 per barrel on the back of Goldman's call, but it didn't hold, finishing with a gain of $1.89, to $99.59. Gold tracked higher by $8.10, currently at $1525.30. Silver blasted higher by $1.50, to $36.57. Apparently, faith in physical silver holdings has regained some degree of confidence, though there will certainly be more raids led by JP Morgan, hoping to keep a lid on the price. That's another eventuality; Morgan will fail.
Cash continues to hold a place of prominence in a multitude of portfolios, and for good reason. Bargains pop up nearly every day, and savvy buyers are keen to take appropriate advantage, though they should beware, as price discovery is more than ever more art than science.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Euro Debt Crisis Exacting Heavy Toll on Global Markets
Make no mistake about it, today was the start of the great reckoning. The beginning of the end of easy money policies, of kicking the can down the road, of failing to come face-to-face with the reality of the global credit crisis that began in 2008 and never really ended.
Oddly enough, it comes on a day in which the US President, Mr. Obama, is headed to Europe for a meeting of the G-8, in which the globalist governors will mete out whatever they see fit for the peasantry of their populous nations. It's a little like playing Russian roulette with all the chambers loaded. You're going to get it no matter how lucky you are.
The interesting aspect of the day's trading happened not specifically today, but actually last Friday, when futures went limit down shortly after the US close. It was a weekend warning shot that the powers in control would be taking their various pounds of flash come Monday. And they did, sending markets around the planet down by one, two and three per cent.
Here in the USA, one-month lows were the order of the day, though that's hardly exciting news. The pertinent take-away is that the great unwind of asset values has begun - or resumed - as the major indices finished the session today less than 4% off their recent multi-year highs.
What was notable was the changing of the guard on the new highs - new lows indicator. For more than two years - with only slight variations - new highs have exceeded new lows on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Today, new lows outnumbered new highs on the NASDAQ and the gap narrowed on the NYSE. Even though this is not the first time this has happened recently, its frequency and narrow range makes it a particularly potent indicator at this point in time. Once this turns, it tends to remain in place for quite a while, periods between changes in leadership are measured in years.
Market movements are often subtle and difficult to pinpoint, though this one has been telegraphed for quite some time. The debt condition of Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Spain and Ireland are unsustainable situations as is the salve of QE2 and ZIRP here in the US. Japan, literally and figuratively, has been swept off the face of leading economic nations and uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa (called the MENA region, for short) threaten the global economy.
Even the leaders of the most powerful nations know that this little game of chicken, complete with artificial stimuli, bailouts, buybacks, swaps, jawboning and other gimmicks cannot proceed forever. Europe must get serious about its long-term structural deficiencies and the US must confront the debt limit and its own burgeoning solvency problem, and both must do so quickly. Thus, preparedness for financial armageddon is underway, and, if one listens closely to the pundits and analysts populating the airwaves and internet, most are calling upon investors to take a pause, pare back on stocks and raise cash, which is, in the parlance of Wall Street, like saying, "run for your life!"
There's an opportunity for the globalist agenda to sail through this period of austerity, consolidation and downgrading of the private sector fairly unscathed, but be assured that the plan is afoot and the stock indices will bear the brunt of what will amount to a massive global deflation. In a year or two, they will once again announce victory over the forces of debt and monetary destruction and proceed to blow the bubbles once more.
In this environment, no asset class is safe, though cash and equivalents, gold and silver, are good starting points. Growth will be minimal, as measured by GDP, if positive at all, and the opportunity for fresh recessions are abundant. Today was just another in a series of well-timed warning shots. Prepare or die.
Dow 12,381.26, -130.78 (1.05%)
NASDAQ 2,758.90, -44.42 (1.58%)
S&P 500 1,317.37, -15.90 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,236.55, -120.98 (1.45%)
Losers soared over winners on the session, 5257-1342, a 4:1 ratio, though hardly a complete rout. It could have been much worse. On the NASDAQ, 37 new highs, but 86 new lows. The NYSE recorded 51 new highs and 44 new lows, the smallest gap in nearly two months. Taken together, the 88 new highs do not reach up to the 130 new lows, and that is the important set of figures to watch, the combined number. Continued weakness has been forecasting a more serious tumble for the past two months. Volume, despite the massive decline, remained at severely low levels. Once again, the major players have been unable to draw in the usually-gullible public, which is tapped out and wants no part of the Wall Street circus. Thus, they play amongst themselves, like a pack of starving wolves who will eventually turn upon each other.
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,104,625
NYSE Volume 3,761,192,500
Crude took another turn down, the front-end NYMEX contract for WTI losing $2.40, to $97.70. Gold managed a gain of $3.70, to $1517.20, while silver advanced by only a penny, to $35.07.
The major indices completed three straight weeks of negative results on Friday. Monday's opening gambit to the downside portends worse to come. March Durable Goods Orders data on Wednesday and the second 2nd quarter GDP estimate on Thursday will most likely add to the sense of pervasive desperation.
Oddly enough, it comes on a day in which the US President, Mr. Obama, is headed to Europe for a meeting of the G-8, in which the globalist governors will mete out whatever they see fit for the peasantry of their populous nations. It's a little like playing Russian roulette with all the chambers loaded. You're going to get it no matter how lucky you are.
The interesting aspect of the day's trading happened not specifically today, but actually last Friday, when futures went limit down shortly after the US close. It was a weekend warning shot that the powers in control would be taking their various pounds of flash come Monday. And they did, sending markets around the planet down by one, two and three per cent.
Here in the USA, one-month lows were the order of the day, though that's hardly exciting news. The pertinent take-away is that the great unwind of asset values has begun - or resumed - as the major indices finished the session today less than 4% off their recent multi-year highs.
What was notable was the changing of the guard on the new highs - new lows indicator. For more than two years - with only slight variations - new highs have exceeded new lows on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Today, new lows outnumbered new highs on the NASDAQ and the gap narrowed on the NYSE. Even though this is not the first time this has happened recently, its frequency and narrow range makes it a particularly potent indicator at this point in time. Once this turns, it tends to remain in place for quite a while, periods between changes in leadership are measured in years.
Market movements are often subtle and difficult to pinpoint, though this one has been telegraphed for quite some time. The debt condition of Greece, Portugal, Belgium, Italy, Spain and Ireland are unsustainable situations as is the salve of QE2 and ZIRP here in the US. Japan, literally and figuratively, has been swept off the face of leading economic nations and uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa (called the MENA region, for short) threaten the global economy.
Even the leaders of the most powerful nations know that this little game of chicken, complete with artificial stimuli, bailouts, buybacks, swaps, jawboning and other gimmicks cannot proceed forever. Europe must get serious about its long-term structural deficiencies and the US must confront the debt limit and its own burgeoning solvency problem, and both must do so quickly. Thus, preparedness for financial armageddon is underway, and, if one listens closely to the pundits and analysts populating the airwaves and internet, most are calling upon investors to take a pause, pare back on stocks and raise cash, which is, in the parlance of Wall Street, like saying, "run for your life!"
There's an opportunity for the globalist agenda to sail through this period of austerity, consolidation and downgrading of the private sector fairly unscathed, but be assured that the plan is afoot and the stock indices will bear the brunt of what will amount to a massive global deflation. In a year or two, they will once again announce victory over the forces of debt and monetary destruction and proceed to blow the bubbles once more.
In this environment, no asset class is safe, though cash and equivalents, gold and silver, are good starting points. Growth will be minimal, as measured by GDP, if positive at all, and the opportunity for fresh recessions are abundant. Today was just another in a series of well-timed warning shots. Prepare or die.
Dow 12,381.26, -130.78 (1.05%)
NASDAQ 2,758.90, -44.42 (1.58%)
S&P 500 1,317.37, -15.90 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,236.55, -120.98 (1.45%)
Losers soared over winners on the session, 5257-1342, a 4:1 ratio, though hardly a complete rout. It could have been much worse. On the NASDAQ, 37 new highs, but 86 new lows. The NYSE recorded 51 new highs and 44 new lows, the smallest gap in nearly two months. Taken together, the 88 new highs do not reach up to the 130 new lows, and that is the important set of figures to watch, the combined number. Continued weakness has been forecasting a more serious tumble for the past two months. Volume, despite the massive decline, remained at severely low levels. Once again, the major players have been unable to draw in the usually-gullible public, which is tapped out and wants no part of the Wall Street circus. Thus, they play amongst themselves, like a pack of starving wolves who will eventually turn upon each other.
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,104,625
NYSE Volume 3,761,192,500
Crude took another turn down, the front-end NYMEX contract for WTI losing $2.40, to $97.70. Gold managed a gain of $3.70, to $1517.20, while silver advanced by only a penny, to $35.07.
The major indices completed three straight weeks of negative results on Friday. Monday's opening gambit to the downside portends worse to come. March Durable Goods Orders data on Wednesday and the second 2nd quarter GDP estimate on Thursday will most likely add to the sense of pervasive desperation.
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