Nothing like a three-day weekend to rekindle those old "animal spirits" in the stock market.
Today's outsize gains come courtesy of the banking criminal cartel, whose sole mission in life is to separate regular people from their money. There was no good reason for stocks to go up, much the less by this inordinate amount. In the real world, economic indicators all pointed to a much weaker US economy than the mainstream media has been hyping, but the Wall Street floozies pumped their paper garbage all the same, and, apparently, there were plenty of pigeons to be plucked.
Before the market even opened, the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city index showed that the value of residential real estate has now fallen more than during the Great Depression. That's not some figure picked out of the blue. The link comes from none other than CNBC's Diana Olick, one very savvy real estate reporter who - unlike others from her network - can be trusted to share pertinent facts.
Olick points out that the big banks will definitely face more write-downs due to the massive unwind in real estate. Those big banks - PM Morgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WCF) and Citigroup (C) all finished 0.5 to 1.0% higher today. Either investors are whistling past their own graves or there is something definitely wrong with this picture. The banks are among the most unhealthy institutions in our unhealthy economy. The sooner they are wound down and bankrupted - because they really are insolvent, despite massive inflows of cash from the US taxpayer - the US can begin healing. Until then, we will head down the path of dollar destruction and desperation.
Just 15 minutes into the trading session, Chicago PMI posted a horrible read, with the index falling from 67.6 in April to 56.6 in May. Though the perma-bulls will contend that the index is still positive (anything over 50 is considered expansionary), an 11-point drop in one month is simply jaw-dropping. This actually took a little wind out of the Wall Street sails, as stocks drifted off their gap-up opening highs, hitting a bottom around midday. From there, however, the 30-minute attention span that seems to cover most of the trading public, kicked back in and stocks surged into the close, even though there was no catalyst - such as a sinking dollar - to prompt the gains.
Again, absent a falling dollar, stocks should have been flat or lower, considering how generally bad was the news today, but also every economic report from the past three weeks. Something is crooked, rotten, bad, awful, wrong, but since the stock market is now the special province of four or five major players, we may never know what the game really is until it comes.
At some point, Wall Street will be reconnected to Main Street, though the impression is clear that there will be many tears and disjointed days such as this. Until then, we can only marvel at the absurdity of centrally-planned economies and their formerly-free stock markets.
Dow 12,569.79, +128.21 (1.03%)
NASDAQ 2,835.30, +38.44 (1.37%)
S&P 500 1,345.20, +14.10 (1.06%)
NYSE Compos 8,477.28, +90.94 (1.08%)
Advancing issues buried decliners, 4904-1755. On the NASDAQ, 135 new highs dwarfed 46 new lows. The NYSE, not to be outdone, posted 224 new highs and just 11 new lows. Volume was terrific, something we have not witnessed since the collapse in 2008.
NASDAQ Volume 2,561,412,750
NYSE Volume 4,560,891,500
Oil was jacked another 2.11, to $102.70 per barrel for WTI crude. Gold lost $4.00, to $1535.10, but silver finished higher, up 40 cents, to $38.47.
The dollar index only fell 0.303, to 74.61. This was not a DXY move that could have produced the kind of gains seen today.
Something is definitely not right, and until we find out just what it is making stocks look like the values of the century, all due caution should be employed.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
Come Back on Tuesday
For those who have to stay focused on the stock my for a living, condolences, for today was the culmination of three of the most boring, low-volume events in the history of the NYSE.
Stocks managed to eek out marginal gains.
There was an almost total news blackout as traders made their way to the Hamptons for the weekend.
Dow 12,441.58, +38.82 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,796.86, +13.94 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,331.10, +5.41 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,386.34, +44.68 (0.54%)
Advancers topped decliners, 4566-1953. On the NASDAQ, 87 new highs exceeded 33 new lows. The NYSE recorded 112 new highs and just 8 new lows. Combined, 199 new highs, 41 new lows. Crisis averted, for now. Volume: lowest of the year.
NASDAQ Volume 1,642,331,625
NYSE Volume 3,111,512,000
Crude oil gained 36 cents to finish the week at $100.59. Gold was the big winner for the day, gaining $17.00, to $1536.40. Silver tacked on 76 cents, to end at $37.95.
Nothing much of substance to report, except that the beer is cold and the grill, hot.
Have a great weekend. See you Tuesday, May 31.
Stocks managed to eek out marginal gains.
There was an almost total news blackout as traders made their way to the Hamptons for the weekend.
Dow 12,441.58, +38.82 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,796.86, +13.94 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,331.10, +5.41 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,386.34, +44.68 (0.54%)
Advancers topped decliners, 4566-1953. On the NASDAQ, 87 new highs exceeded 33 new lows. The NYSE recorded 112 new highs and just 8 new lows. Combined, 199 new highs, 41 new lows. Crisis averted, for now. Volume: lowest of the year.
NASDAQ Volume 1,642,331,625
NYSE Volume 3,111,512,000
Crude oil gained 36 cents to finish the week at $100.59. Gold was the big winner for the day, gaining $17.00, to $1536.40. Silver tacked on 76 cents, to end at $37.95.
Nothing much of substance to report, except that the beer is cold and the grill, hot.
Have a great weekend. See you Tuesday, May 31.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Bye, Bye, American Pie
There are only a few facts that need to be known to understand what happened today on Wall Street, and, believe me, it wasn't nearly worth the effort.
New unemployment claims came in at 425,000, up 10,000 from an upwardly-revised (always) 414,000.
The government's second (rhymes with fecund) estimate of 1st quarter GDP was 1.8%, the same as the first estimate, but measured differently. For instance, the price index for US domestic purchases increased by 3.8% and motor vehicle output added 1.28% to real GDP for the quarter. Translation: inflation was the main driver behind the poor 1.8% gain and a lot of cars were produced, but only a fraction of that number were unsold. Were it not for government sleight of hand, we'd be going backwards, which we are, but nobody wants to use the "R" word just yet. Forget about growth in this environment. It's a mirage. Survival will be the operative term for the next five years, as it has been for the last three.
It was one of the five slowest trading day of the year thus far. The Dow was down as much as 76 points early on, up as much as 47 later and finished nearly flat.
In other words, if all the traders, bankers, money managers and other financial gurus had stayed home and done nothing, the same result could have been mailed in from a remote location without all the fuss. Tomorrow will likely be ever more boringly stupid as we approach a three-day weekend.
Judging by GDP, our elected officials reluctance to do anything constructive and the general lack of regard by the public, it's a safe bet that we've ceased to be a nation of people and are now just an amorphous aggregation of individuals foraging for life support. America is a dead duck and all that's left are whatever crumbs one can pick from others.
Today may not have been the day the Republic died - that was probably years ago - but anyone who believes that there's a future here is really on some powerful meds and should share with the rest of us.
The federal government is busily raiding the retirement funds of federal employees and will be coming after similar state funds in due time, then private accounts. Eventually, the banker class will have stripped the country of all assets, in plain sight of the populace. Bye, bye, American Pie. The levy truly is dry.
Dow 12,402.76, +8.10 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,782.92, +21.54 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,325.69, +5.22 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,341.66, +46.29 (0.56%)
Advancing issues outpaced decliners, 4663-1852. New highs on the NASDAQ were 64, compared to 51 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 77 new highs and 29 new lows. Total: 141 highs, 80 new lows. Volume? No.
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,346,250
NYSE Volume 3,656,113,250
Commodities were mostly down, with WTI crude oil off $1.09, to $100.23. Gold's latest reading was down $4.60, to $1521.20, with silver stepping in line, losing 50 cents, to $37.40.
Advice for Friday: Take the day off; make it a four-day weekend, maybe five.
New unemployment claims came in at 425,000, up 10,000 from an upwardly-revised (always) 414,000.
The government's second (rhymes with fecund) estimate of 1st quarter GDP was 1.8%, the same as the first estimate, but measured differently. For instance, the price index for US domestic purchases increased by 3.8% and motor vehicle output added 1.28% to real GDP for the quarter. Translation: inflation was the main driver behind the poor 1.8% gain and a lot of cars were produced, but only a fraction of that number were unsold. Were it not for government sleight of hand, we'd be going backwards, which we are, but nobody wants to use the "R" word just yet. Forget about growth in this environment. It's a mirage. Survival will be the operative term for the next five years, as it has been for the last three.
It was one of the five slowest trading day of the year thus far. The Dow was down as much as 76 points early on, up as much as 47 later and finished nearly flat.
In other words, if all the traders, bankers, money managers and other financial gurus had stayed home and done nothing, the same result could have been mailed in from a remote location without all the fuss. Tomorrow will likely be ever more boringly stupid as we approach a three-day weekend.
Judging by GDP, our elected officials reluctance to do anything constructive and the general lack of regard by the public, it's a safe bet that we've ceased to be a nation of people and are now just an amorphous aggregation of individuals foraging for life support. America is a dead duck and all that's left are whatever crumbs one can pick from others.
Today may not have been the day the Republic died - that was probably years ago - but anyone who believes that there's a future here is really on some powerful meds and should share with the rest of us.
The federal government is busily raiding the retirement funds of federal employees and will be coming after similar state funds in due time, then private accounts. Eventually, the banker class will have stripped the country of all assets, in plain sight of the populace. Bye, bye, American Pie. The levy truly is dry.
Dow 12,402.76, +8.10 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,782.92, +21.54 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,325.69, +5.22 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,341.66, +46.29 (0.56%)
Advancing issues outpaced decliners, 4663-1852. New highs on the NASDAQ were 64, compared to 51 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 77 new highs and 29 new lows. Total: 141 highs, 80 new lows. Volume? No.
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,346,250
NYSE Volume 3,656,113,250
Commodities were mostly down, with WTI crude oil off $1.09, to $100.23. Gold's latest reading was down $4.60, to $1521.20, with silver stepping in line, losing 50 cents, to $37.40.
Advice for Friday: Take the day off; make it a four-day weekend, maybe five.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Lack of Catalyst Encourages Buyers; Rally Fizzles at Close
 |
| Mark Haines |
As far as bounce-back rallies are concerned, this one rates at best a D-minus, for any number of reasons. First, there could not have been a more friendly environment to buy into; second, volume was so light a junior trader could have engineered a better bounce; third, the rally fizzled into the close, just like yesterday's 3:30 and beyond slip-slide.
Today's action was more a re-positioning of assets rather than a rally. For perspective, consider that the Dow dropped 250 points in the prior three sessions. Today's gain of less than 40 points was not even a quarter of that. The NASDAQ was down 77 points over the prior three sessions. The gains today were not meaningful.
Besides the untimely death of CNBC's Mark Haines, there was little to trade off of today, and most of it was bad news. Greece continues to twist in the wind of proposed EU austerity packages, all unacceptable and leading eventually to Greek default on their debt. Durable goods orders for April nose-dived, down 3.6% for the month, after a 4.4% gain in March. Estimates were for a 2% decline, so that was a pretty substantial miss. Investors seemed not to notice that all economic data has been either bad or horrifying the past two weeks.
Dow 12,394.66, +38.45 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,761.38, +15.22 (0.55%)
S&P 500 1,320.47, +4.19 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,295.34, +42.88 (0.52%)
Winners took the measure of losing issues, 4336-2215. On the NASDAQ, 46 new highs, but 73 new lows. The NYSE showed 61 new highs and 35 new lows, making the combined total (the one that matters most) 106 new highs and 108 new lows, the second in the past three sessions that there have been more cumulative new lows than new highs. We are plumb out of adjectives to describe the ridiculously low volume on the markets. Sorry.
NASDAQ Volume 1,845,890,875
NYSE Volume 4,024,320,500
A weaker US dollar boosted commodities. Crude oil was up $1.55, to $101.32. AAA reports the average price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas in the US at $3.81, about 14 cents lower than two weeks ago, offering a little bit of relief for over-burdened drivers.
Gold found some life, but was eventually blunted late in the day, losing 90 cents, to $1525.20. Silver had another good day, gaining $1.20, to $37.83 the ounce.
Thursday brings the usual scariness of initial and continuing unemployment claims, plus the added bonus of the second estimate on 1st quarter GDP. The initial estimate had the US economy growing at 1.8% and the consensus is for little change to that number.
And so we bump along, grinding lower in due time.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
The time has come, at last.
Almost anybody who is anybody on Wall Street is in agreement that the Fed's POMO-and-ZIRP-induced party has come to an end, and like all good party-goers, the hangovers are beginning to be felt.
Laughably, Goldman Sachs, the evil giant squid which everyone loves to hate, expects the party to go on without end, today boosting its outlook for oil to something ridiculous at about $130/barrel. Somebody needs to ease the Goldman boys away from the punch bowl, because they've obviously had too much. It takes less than a genius rationalization to understand that if everything begins going in reverse, oil cannot be priced higher. This simple, fundamental fact has apparently escaped the great minds in Goldman's glassy, lower-Manhattan towers.
Elsewhere, Greece steps closer and closer to defaulting on its debt. Not that Greece might one day default; it is an eventuality, and the sooner it gets over with it, the better. Yields on 10-year greek bonds have been running at about 25%, which would be a real find if they were actually going to pay them back. Of course, they're not, so whomever is loaning them money (there are a lot of silly people in this world) is exacting a pretty hefty price for the privilege.
Stocks went up, then down, then back up and finally, down into the close, a nifty continuation trade that began a few weeks ago and has been gathering momentum. The close today was rather dramtic, with loads of selling on pretty solid volume. Sooner or later, there will be a final flushing out of all the weak hands - and there are many - and a cataclysmic collapse in all the US - and global - stock indices.
We are heading into a frightening period of economic history, as nothing less than the actual value of money will be center stage. Today, $10 US could buy a couple of raw 8 oz. steaks of less-than premium quality. Tomorrow, who knows, maybe the same money could buy only a pound of bologna, or perhaps one could purchase premium sirloins. It all depends on the politics, the players and the public's acceptance of the value of a dollar, or two, or ten.
For the present, the US dollar still holds some value and still buys oil globally. That is the good news. The bad news is that there are a multitude of competing currencies, pricing strategies and unknowns that could change the course of economic history in a very short time. As the Fed unwinds its massive funding and balance sheet, all manner of nastiness could occur, though the current betting is on a mild dose of deflation, probably through the end of this year and into the first and second quarters of next. In other words, another year of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). After that, nobody knows, so plan accordingly. HA, ha, ha.
Dow 12,356.21, -25.05 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,746.16, -12.74 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,316.28, -1.09 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 8,252.46, -15.91 (0.19%)
Not unexpectedly, declining issues bettered advancers, 3587-2941. NASDAQ new highs: 48; new lows: 79. NYSE new highs: 74; new lows: 32. Combined new highs: 122; new lows: 111. A tenuous win for the bulls, but on slight, sell-weighted volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,880,249,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,757,500
Crude oil popped back over $100 per barrel on the back of Goldman's call, but it didn't hold, finishing with a gain of $1.89, to $99.59. Gold tracked higher by $8.10, currently at $1525.30. Silver blasted higher by $1.50, to $36.57. Apparently, faith in physical silver holdings has regained some degree of confidence, though there will certainly be more raids led by JP Morgan, hoping to keep a lid on the price. That's another eventuality; Morgan will fail.
Cash continues to hold a place of prominence in a multitude of portfolios, and for good reason. Bargains pop up nearly every day, and savvy buyers are keen to take appropriate advantage, though they should beware, as price discovery is more than ever more art than science.
Almost anybody who is anybody on Wall Street is in agreement that the Fed's POMO-and-ZIRP-induced party has come to an end, and like all good party-goers, the hangovers are beginning to be felt.
Laughably, Goldman Sachs, the evil giant squid which everyone loves to hate, expects the party to go on without end, today boosting its outlook for oil to something ridiculous at about $130/barrel. Somebody needs to ease the Goldman boys away from the punch bowl, because they've obviously had too much. It takes less than a genius rationalization to understand that if everything begins going in reverse, oil cannot be priced higher. This simple, fundamental fact has apparently escaped the great minds in Goldman's glassy, lower-Manhattan towers.
Elsewhere, Greece steps closer and closer to defaulting on its debt. Not that Greece might one day default; it is an eventuality, and the sooner it gets over with it, the better. Yields on 10-year greek bonds have been running at about 25%, which would be a real find if they were actually going to pay them back. Of course, they're not, so whomever is loaning them money (there are a lot of silly people in this world) is exacting a pretty hefty price for the privilege.
Stocks went up, then down, then back up and finally, down into the close, a nifty continuation trade that began a few weeks ago and has been gathering momentum. The close today was rather dramtic, with loads of selling on pretty solid volume. Sooner or later, there will be a final flushing out of all the weak hands - and there are many - and a cataclysmic collapse in all the US - and global - stock indices.
We are heading into a frightening period of economic history, as nothing less than the actual value of money will be center stage. Today, $10 US could buy a couple of raw 8 oz. steaks of less-than premium quality. Tomorrow, who knows, maybe the same money could buy only a pound of bologna, or perhaps one could purchase premium sirloins. It all depends on the politics, the players and the public's acceptance of the value of a dollar, or two, or ten.
For the present, the US dollar still holds some value and still buys oil globally. That is the good news. The bad news is that there are a multitude of competing currencies, pricing strategies and unknowns that could change the course of economic history in a very short time. As the Fed unwinds its massive funding and balance sheet, all manner of nastiness could occur, though the current betting is on a mild dose of deflation, probably through the end of this year and into the first and second quarters of next. In other words, another year of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). After that, nobody knows, so plan accordingly. HA, ha, ha.
Dow 12,356.21, -25.05 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,746.16, -12.74 (0.46%)
S&P 500 1,316.28, -1.09 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 8,252.46, -15.91 (0.19%)
Not unexpectedly, declining issues bettered advancers, 3587-2941. NASDAQ new highs: 48; new lows: 79. NYSE new highs: 74; new lows: 32. Combined new highs: 122; new lows: 111. A tenuous win for the bulls, but on slight, sell-weighted volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,880,249,750
NYSE Volume 3,867,757,500
Crude oil popped back over $100 per barrel on the back of Goldman's call, but it didn't hold, finishing with a gain of $1.89, to $99.59. Gold tracked higher by $8.10, currently at $1525.30. Silver blasted higher by $1.50, to $36.57. Apparently, faith in physical silver holdings has regained some degree of confidence, though there will certainly be more raids led by JP Morgan, hoping to keep a lid on the price. That's another eventuality; Morgan will fail.
Cash continues to hold a place of prominence in a multitude of portfolios, and for good reason. Bargains pop up nearly every day, and savvy buyers are keen to take appropriate advantage, though they should beware, as price discovery is more than ever more art than science.
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