One look at the general direction of trading today gives the impression that this is a market running completely on fumes, exhausted from last week's frenzied action and unsure about the immediate future.
Despite three of the four major averages finishing in the green, today's high open and low close are classic technical signals of a market in despair. The volume has subsided, but the VIX is still very high, over 30, and the complacency of trading today was something of a surprise, considering the still-shaky economic conditions in both the US and Europe, though it does seem that outside of the usual gang of day-traders and algo followers most of the retail investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude.
To that point, it was reported today by the ICI (Investment Company Institute) that mutual fund outflows totaled $40 billion in the past week. From the report, "Investors pulled a net $40.3 billion out of those funds in the week ended Aug. 10, the largest weekly withdrawal since early October 2008, soon after the collapse of Lehman Brothers."
Equity funds were the biggest losers, as investors shed $30 billion worth of exposure to common stocks.
Adding to the negatives was the July PPI number, at a modest 0.2% increase, though core PPI, which excludes energy and food, was up 0.4%, for an annual run rate of nearly 5 percent on a wholesale level. While oil and gas prices haven't exactly come down to reasonable levels, food prices have stabilized, though the core reading shows inflation showing up in other areas.
Bonds edged higher, with the 10-year dropping six basis points to a yield of 2.16% and the 30-year shedding 9 bips, to yield 3.56%. Investors are still looking to safety over risk, and that was evident today in Treasuries and precious metals.
This little pause in the action will last until the next crisis scenario erupts - about a week or two, maybe - and then equity markets will retest the lows set in place last week. From a technical standpoint, a retest of recent lows is almost always warranted before a move higher, so, down we must go in short order.
Dow 11,410.21, +4.28 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,511.48, -11.97 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,193.88, +1.12 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,418.94, +24.45 (0.33%)
Advancers led decliners on the day, though the NASDAQ saw more losers than winners. Overall, the gainers were 3624, to 2909 on the downside. New highs numbered only eight (8), with 58 new lows. The NYSE was nearly evenly split, with 13 new highs and 14 new lows. The combined total of 21 new highs and 72 new lows reinforces the indication for stocks to eventually recede.
Volume was back to moribund levels, as investors have headed for the hills.
NASDAQ Volume 1,919,593,000
NYSE Volume 4,351,417,000
WTI crude oil priced 93 cents higher, at $87.58, despite a government report that showed a significant surplus of the slimy stuff in the most recent week. Gold stopped at another new record of $1,793.80 per ounce, up $8.80 on the day and silver went happily along, picking up 53 cents, to $40.35 the ounce.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Euro Fears Still Making Markets Shaky
As today's post title suggests, trading continues to focus on events - or the relative lack thereof - in Europe, where today French President Nicolas Zarkozy met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, announcing some coordination of efforts, but fell short of endorsing the concept of Eurobonds to shore up shaky finances on the Continent.
"We want to express our absolute will to defend the euro and assume Germany and France's particular responsibilities in Europe," said Sarkozy.
In what has to be the most humorous statement to date concerning sovereign fiscal policies, the two leaders said they would push for balanced budget amendments for all 17 nations which use the Euro as their primary currency. The irony is that, excepting possibly Germany, none of the member nations have had a balanced budget in at least five years, most of them running continuous deficits since the Euro became the continental currency in 2000.
The specific proposals coming from the leaders of the two most powerful members of the Europen Union were slim. They said their finance ministers would meet four times a year and proposed that the member nations coordinate income tax policy and begin taxing financial transactions by 2013, kicking the proverbial can a bit further down the road to perdition.
By the time the two leaders met with the press, European markets had already closed, so the brunt of the effect from their statements was felt primarily in the US.
Stocks took a nose dive after the press conference, and fell to their lowest levels of the day just after 1:00 pm EDT. The Dow was off by 190 points at its bottom.
But, as usual, the mechanics of controlled markets took over, as all the major indices rallied for the final three hours, still closing down for the day, but with reasonable losses.
Stocks had gotten off to a shaky start, after economic data was mixed prior to the opening bell. July housing starts fell off to 604,000 on an annualized rate, after posting a figure of 613,000 in June. Building permits dropped by 20,000 from the annualized rate of 617,000 in June.
However, industrial production came in with a better-than-expected gain of 0.9% and capacity utilization also showed a bit of strength, with a reading of 77.5%, following a 76.9 figure in June. Of course, these are estimates prepared by an inept and failing government and should not be trusted as any true guide to financial conditions in the United States, even though they remain mired in the minds of traders and fund managers as the most reliable gauges.
Without any determinant structure of reform or policy coming from Europe, expect this see-saw battle of bulls and bears to rage on for weeks until something concrete cracks across the pond. There seems to be about the same level of political will over there as there is in the US to entertain policies that actually address structural issues in the economy - none - as the leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are easily more enthusiastic about getting re-elected than they are at doing their jobs well.
With the majority of the politicians on vacation this month (the NY Times reports that 80 members of the house of representatives have or will be visiting Israel this month) our political class appears quite cavalier when called on to solve pressing problems.
Until there is real political leadership (in other words, we better hope we make it to November, 2012 and then elect Ron Paul as our next president) markets will continue to stumble along and economies will continue to run up debt and deteriorate.
That's how it goes. Prepare.
Dow 11,405.93, -76.97 (0.67%)
NASDAQ 2,523.45, -31.75 (1.24%)
S&P 500 1,192.76, -11.73 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 7,394.49, -88.22 (1.18%)
Declining issues got the better of advancers on the day, 4939-1664. On the NASDAQ, there were six (6) new highs, but 51 new lows. The NYSE showed 10 new highs and 15 new lows, keeping the bias to the downside, with the combined figure of 16 new highs and 66 new lows. Expect the gap between the few new highs and increasing new lows to expand as the crisis nobody wants to handle grows even deeper.
Volume was moderate, which, after the events of last week, shows a general lack of interest overall in staking out any new, long term positions.
NASDAQ Volume 2,085,979,250
NYSE Volume 5,009,345,000
Oil closed down $1.23, to $86.65, though gas prices at filling stations across the country have seen hardly any price decline at all.
The continued unease over macro-economic issues produced a renewed push into gold, which traded higher by $27.00, to $1,785.00, a new closing record, while silver also gained, finishing up 51 cents, at $39.82, though it traded above $40/ounce both earlier in the day and after equity markets had closed.
Tomorrow brings PPI numbers for July, the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Index and a reading on crude oil inventories. Other than that, bonds look very good, as they continue to hold near low levels, but remain one of the primary safety plays.
"We want to express our absolute will to defend the euro and assume Germany and France's particular responsibilities in Europe," said Sarkozy.
In what has to be the most humorous statement to date concerning sovereign fiscal policies, the two leaders said they would push for balanced budget amendments for all 17 nations which use the Euro as their primary currency. The irony is that, excepting possibly Germany, none of the member nations have had a balanced budget in at least five years, most of them running continuous deficits since the Euro became the continental currency in 2000.
The specific proposals coming from the leaders of the two most powerful members of the Europen Union were slim. They said their finance ministers would meet four times a year and proposed that the member nations coordinate income tax policy and begin taxing financial transactions by 2013, kicking the proverbial can a bit further down the road to perdition.
By the time the two leaders met with the press, European markets had already closed, so the brunt of the effect from their statements was felt primarily in the US.
Stocks took a nose dive after the press conference, and fell to their lowest levels of the day just after 1:00 pm EDT. The Dow was off by 190 points at its bottom.
But, as usual, the mechanics of controlled markets took over, as all the major indices rallied for the final three hours, still closing down for the day, but with reasonable losses.
Stocks had gotten off to a shaky start, after economic data was mixed prior to the opening bell. July housing starts fell off to 604,000 on an annualized rate, after posting a figure of 613,000 in June. Building permits dropped by 20,000 from the annualized rate of 617,000 in June.
However, industrial production came in with a better-than-expected gain of 0.9% and capacity utilization also showed a bit of strength, with a reading of 77.5%, following a 76.9 figure in June. Of course, these are estimates prepared by an inept and failing government and should not be trusted as any true guide to financial conditions in the United States, even though they remain mired in the minds of traders and fund managers as the most reliable gauges.
Without any determinant structure of reform or policy coming from Europe, expect this see-saw battle of bulls and bears to rage on for weeks until something concrete cracks across the pond. There seems to be about the same level of political will over there as there is in the US to entertain policies that actually address structural issues in the economy - none - as the leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are easily more enthusiastic about getting re-elected than they are at doing their jobs well.
With the majority of the politicians on vacation this month (the NY Times reports that 80 members of the house of representatives have or will be visiting Israel this month) our political class appears quite cavalier when called on to solve pressing problems.
Until there is real political leadership (in other words, we better hope we make it to November, 2012 and then elect Ron Paul as our next president) markets will continue to stumble along and economies will continue to run up debt and deteriorate.
That's how it goes. Prepare.
Dow 11,405.93, -76.97 (0.67%)
NASDAQ 2,523.45, -31.75 (1.24%)
S&P 500 1,192.76, -11.73 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 7,394.49, -88.22 (1.18%)
Declining issues got the better of advancers on the day, 4939-1664. On the NASDAQ, there were six (6) new highs, but 51 new lows. The NYSE showed 10 new highs and 15 new lows, keeping the bias to the downside, with the combined figure of 16 new highs and 66 new lows. Expect the gap between the few new highs and increasing new lows to expand as the crisis nobody wants to handle grows even deeper.
Volume was moderate, which, after the events of last week, shows a general lack of interest overall in staking out any new, long term positions.
NASDAQ Volume 2,085,979,250
NYSE Volume 5,009,345,000
Oil closed down $1.23, to $86.65, though gas prices at filling stations across the country have seen hardly any price decline at all.
The continued unease over macro-economic issues produced a renewed push into gold, which traded higher by $27.00, to $1,785.00, a new closing record, while silver also gained, finishing up 51 cents, at $39.82, though it traded above $40/ounce both earlier in the day and after equity markets had closed.
Tomorrow brings PPI numbers for July, the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Index and a reading on crude oil inventories. Other than that, bonds look very good, as they continue to hold near low levels, but remain one of the primary safety plays.
Labels:
Angela Merkel,
crude oil,
EU,
European Union,
gas prices,
gold,
Nicolas Sarkozy
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The company keeps up-to-date with a stylish website and there's free shipping on orders of $155 or more and a pledge of satisfaction, offering free returns and exchanges on all orders.
Blue Sky Scrubs represents the new wave in medical wear.
Monday, August 15, 2011
40 Years After Nixon Killed the Gold Standard, The Great Sucker Rally of 2011
Those savvy traders who toil at their computer screens, doping out the finest of five-minute investments, went at the markets today like the economy was in the midst of a major boom, sending the Dow up by more than 200 points and all major indices back to levels prior to the careening downshift from August 4th.
Like it never even happened...
Like there's no debt crisis in Europe. Like the US debt to GDP ratio isn't close enough to 100%. Like the unemployment rate isn't 9.2% (really, upwards of 17%).
Supposedly, according to experts at these kinds of things, this is what the Fed was saying when it pegged federal funds rates at zero percent last Tuesday - that treasuries and savings were for fools and that the only way to make money was to invest in risky assets, like stocks.
It just so happens that today is the 40th anniversary of then-President Nixon closing the gold window, and setting global economies off on a fiat money adventure, wherein currencies are backed by nothing but "good faith and credit" of sovereigns, and nothing more. Whatever hell in which Richard M. Nixon is currently residing, one hopes that the flames are hot enough to toast his dead bones to a crisp, because, more than anything else, taking the US - and thus, the world's reserve currency, and thus, all other currencies - off the gold standard in 1971 has created the gross inequalities in income levels and the bankster/crook/casino mentality that pervades capital markets today.
Nixon destroyed the concept of sound money and replaced it with a world of volatile, floating currencies, mountains of debt and middle class wage slavery. If anyone asks who caused the great collapse of currencies and the three-year financial mess that the world is currently embroiled in, tell them, "Nixon did it," because he started it all (and maybe, when people wake up to reality, they'll elect Ron Paul president to undo it).
Traders (not investors) took to the market like hungry wolves right out of the gate, ignoring the August Empire State Manufacturing Index, which delivered the third straight month of negative readings, coming in at -7.7, an hour prior to the opening bell. It was the third straight month the index came in below zero, which indicates that the economy of NY state has been contracting since May.
Well, it's just one state, like Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and France, are each just one country. But, if New York is contracting, you can bet other states are doing similar, or just barely expanding. Besides, New York is one of the biggest states, by population, 4th in the US.
No problem. Just move along, the government will fix all the bad economic data that's coming out this week, including industrial production, capacity utilization, new and existing home sales, PPI and CPI. Besides, Ben Bernanke has made it very clear that the only place to put your money to work is in equities (oh, and oil), not bonds, or gold or silver.
As CNBC's chief cheerleader, Jim Cramer, would say, BUY, BUY, BUY.
Dow 11,482.90, +213.88 (1.90%)
NASDAQ 2,555.20, +47.22 (1.88%)
S&P 500 1,204.49, +25.68 (2.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,482.71, +178.83 (2.45%)
Stock winners beat losers by a count of 5737-970, in a broad-based beat-down. On the NASDAQ, new lows continued to outnumber new highs, 49-14. The opposite was true on the NYSE, with 11 new highs and just six (6) new lows. The combined total of 25 new highs and 55 new lows, still retains a modest downside bias.
Volume returned to more pedestrian levels after the ridiculous wind and unwind of the previous seven sessions.
NASDAQ Volume 1,915,922,250
NYSE Volume 4,952,016,500
Oil caught a bid, gaining $2.50, to $87.88. With any luck, the speculators and oil barons controlling the futures markets will have it back to $100/barrel by Labor Day. In case nobody's noticed, even though oil is well off it's highs around $100 just three weeks ago, prices at the pump have barely budged. The oil companies say that's because the gasoline already delivered was bought at a higher price and has to be sold at a higher price. When that runs out, and gas can be bought lower, then prices will come down.
Yeah, sure. AAA reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular at $3.594 per gallon, down about a nickel from July 22nd, when oil began to slide.
Gold and silver suppression schemes seem to be running out of fuel, however. Gold gained $15.40, to $1,758.00, while silver was up 19 cents, at $39.31.
On Tuesday, a slew of data hits the street, though it will mostly be ignored since there is no other way to make money than by buying stocks.
Finally, below is a video (ain't technology great?) of Richard Nixon forty years ago today, dissembling, in his own beautiful, self-destructive way, in front of the entire world. Enjoy.
Like it never even happened...
Like there's no debt crisis in Europe. Like the US debt to GDP ratio isn't close enough to 100%. Like the unemployment rate isn't 9.2% (really, upwards of 17%).
Supposedly, according to experts at these kinds of things, this is what the Fed was saying when it pegged federal funds rates at zero percent last Tuesday - that treasuries and savings were for fools and that the only way to make money was to invest in risky assets, like stocks.
It just so happens that today is the 40th anniversary of then-President Nixon closing the gold window, and setting global economies off on a fiat money adventure, wherein currencies are backed by nothing but "good faith and credit" of sovereigns, and nothing more. Whatever hell in which Richard M. Nixon is currently residing, one hopes that the flames are hot enough to toast his dead bones to a crisp, because, more than anything else, taking the US - and thus, the world's reserve currency, and thus, all other currencies - off the gold standard in 1971 has created the gross inequalities in income levels and the bankster/crook/casino mentality that pervades capital markets today.
Nixon destroyed the concept of sound money and replaced it with a world of volatile, floating currencies, mountains of debt and middle class wage slavery. If anyone asks who caused the great collapse of currencies and the three-year financial mess that the world is currently embroiled in, tell them, "Nixon did it," because he started it all (and maybe, when people wake up to reality, they'll elect Ron Paul president to undo it).
Traders (not investors) took to the market like hungry wolves right out of the gate, ignoring the August Empire State Manufacturing Index, which delivered the third straight month of negative readings, coming in at -7.7, an hour prior to the opening bell. It was the third straight month the index came in below zero, which indicates that the economy of NY state has been contracting since May.
Well, it's just one state, like Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and France, are each just one country. But, if New York is contracting, you can bet other states are doing similar, or just barely expanding. Besides, New York is one of the biggest states, by population, 4th in the US.
No problem. Just move along, the government will fix all the bad economic data that's coming out this week, including industrial production, capacity utilization, new and existing home sales, PPI and CPI. Besides, Ben Bernanke has made it very clear that the only place to put your money to work is in equities (oh, and oil), not bonds, or gold or silver.
As CNBC's chief cheerleader, Jim Cramer, would say, BUY, BUY, BUY.
Dow 11,482.90, +213.88 (1.90%)
NASDAQ 2,555.20, +47.22 (1.88%)
S&P 500 1,204.49, +25.68 (2.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,482.71, +178.83 (2.45%)
Stock winners beat losers by a count of 5737-970, in a broad-based beat-down. On the NASDAQ, new lows continued to outnumber new highs, 49-14. The opposite was true on the NYSE, with 11 new highs and just six (6) new lows. The combined total of 25 new highs and 55 new lows, still retains a modest downside bias.
Volume returned to more pedestrian levels after the ridiculous wind and unwind of the previous seven sessions.
NASDAQ Volume 1,915,922,250
NYSE Volume 4,952,016,500
Oil caught a bid, gaining $2.50, to $87.88. With any luck, the speculators and oil barons controlling the futures markets will have it back to $100/barrel by Labor Day. In case nobody's noticed, even though oil is well off it's highs around $100 just three weeks ago, prices at the pump have barely budged. The oil companies say that's because the gasoline already delivered was bought at a higher price and has to be sold at a higher price. When that runs out, and gas can be bought lower, then prices will come down.
Yeah, sure. AAA reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular at $3.594 per gallon, down about a nickel from July 22nd, when oil began to slide.
Gold and silver suppression schemes seem to be running out of fuel, however. Gold gained $15.40, to $1,758.00, while silver was up 19 cents, at $39.31.
On Tuesday, a slew of data hits the street, though it will mostly be ignored since there is no other way to make money than by buying stocks.
Finally, below is a video (ain't technology great?) of Richard Nixon forty years ago today, dissembling, in his own beautiful, self-destructive way, in front of the entire world. Enjoy.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Stocks Close Green, but Well Off Highs of Day, Down for Week
One of the wildest weeks in US stock market history came to a rather anti-climactic close on Friday, with modest gains on all of the major indices, though the close was well off the highs of the session.
The Dow was the biggest winner of the day in percentage terms, suggesting that money is being plowed into the global behemoths for their international reach and dividend yields, but the week-ending rally was well short of spectacular and the Dow ended the day close to the middle of the range after it had been up 203 points at the high.
The S&P 500 had been as high as 1189 before losing more than half its gains through the afternoon. So too, the NASDAQ, which was up as much as 32 points before surrendering much of those gains as the day wore on.
For the week, all the major averages were lower. The Dow gave up 175 points over the roller coaster week; the NASDAQ lost 25 points, or about one percent, and the S&P shed 20 points, closer to 2%.
It was the third straight week of losses for the major averages, though hardly as bad as it could have been, measured by the lows set in place on Wednesday. The troubling characteristics of the week's trading were extreme volatility, high volume and the uncanny ability - in the near future - for indices to retest lows before making decisive moves.
With Europe still unresolved and US problems probably put away for a while with the start of preseason football, Friday turned out to be a day of celebration, not for the gains of the session, but for the fact that markets did not continue to slide as the week wore on and out.
Another troubling aspect was the 10:00 am reading from the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment, which plunged to an 31-year low of 54.9, after a reading of 63.7 in July.
On the other hand, retail sales posted positive gains for July according to the Department of Commerce, though their readings and estimates have proven in the past to be more hot air than fact.
Not to hose down anyone's equity parade, but the global economy is still rather shaky, and unless long-term, structural problems with debt and the global currencies themselves are addressed, we are sure to repeat this kind of market behavior and sluggish economic growth. As it is, it's been nearly three years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the world is hardly a better place. Investments have become short term holdings, while real money has gravitated to bonds, gold or hard assets.
Dow 11,269.02, +125.71 (1.13%)
NASDAQ 2,507.98, +15.30 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,178.81, +6.17 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite 7,303.88, +46.30 (0.64%)
Advancing issues topped decliners, though the margin was slight, 3965-2678. New highs on the NASDAQ numbered just four (4), with 60 new lows. On the NYSE, there were only seven (7) new highs and 24 new lows. The combined total of 11 new highs and 84 new lows - low numbers on both sides - suggests exactly what the market shows, that we are in a mid-range between a rally and collapse, with a bias to the negative.
Volume dropped off substantially, as traders were worn out and some caution and reason was applied to today's trading.
NASDAQ Volume 2,222,537,500
NYSE Volume 5,581,791,000
Commodities were sluggish. Oil fell 34 cents, to $85.38. Gold dipped $8.90, ending the week at $1,742.60, while silver speculators snapped back at onerous margin requirements, gaining 45 cents, to $39.11.
At the end, it was a smooth finish, but hardly inspiring to the bulls. After all, this is a three-week skid and the major markets are still bound between correction (-10%) and a bear market (-20%). It will likely take more than a few good days of trading to come to some understanding of future direction.
The Dow was the biggest winner of the day in percentage terms, suggesting that money is being plowed into the global behemoths for their international reach and dividend yields, but the week-ending rally was well short of spectacular and the Dow ended the day close to the middle of the range after it had been up 203 points at the high.
The S&P 500 had been as high as 1189 before losing more than half its gains through the afternoon. So too, the NASDAQ, which was up as much as 32 points before surrendering much of those gains as the day wore on.
For the week, all the major averages were lower. The Dow gave up 175 points over the roller coaster week; the NASDAQ lost 25 points, or about one percent, and the S&P shed 20 points, closer to 2%.
It was the third straight week of losses for the major averages, though hardly as bad as it could have been, measured by the lows set in place on Wednesday. The troubling characteristics of the week's trading were extreme volatility, high volume and the uncanny ability - in the near future - for indices to retest lows before making decisive moves.
With Europe still unresolved and US problems probably put away for a while with the start of preseason football, Friday turned out to be a day of celebration, not for the gains of the session, but for the fact that markets did not continue to slide as the week wore on and out.
Another troubling aspect was the 10:00 am reading from the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment, which plunged to an 31-year low of 54.9, after a reading of 63.7 in July.
On the other hand, retail sales posted positive gains for July according to the Department of Commerce, though their readings and estimates have proven in the past to be more hot air than fact.
Not to hose down anyone's equity parade, but the global economy is still rather shaky, and unless long-term, structural problems with debt and the global currencies themselves are addressed, we are sure to repeat this kind of market behavior and sluggish economic growth. As it is, it's been nearly three years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the world is hardly a better place. Investments have become short term holdings, while real money has gravitated to bonds, gold or hard assets.
Dow 11,269.02, +125.71 (1.13%)
NASDAQ 2,507.98, +15.30 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,178.81, +6.17 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite 7,303.88, +46.30 (0.64%)
Advancing issues topped decliners, though the margin was slight, 3965-2678. New highs on the NASDAQ numbered just four (4), with 60 new lows. On the NYSE, there were only seven (7) new highs and 24 new lows. The combined total of 11 new highs and 84 new lows - low numbers on both sides - suggests exactly what the market shows, that we are in a mid-range between a rally and collapse, with a bias to the negative.
Volume dropped off substantially, as traders were worn out and some caution and reason was applied to today's trading.
NASDAQ Volume 2,222,537,500
NYSE Volume 5,581,791,000
Commodities were sluggish. Oil fell 34 cents, to $85.38. Gold dipped $8.90, ending the week at $1,742.60, while silver speculators snapped back at onerous margin requirements, gaining 45 cents, to $39.11.
At the end, it was a smooth finish, but hardly inspiring to the bulls. After all, this is a three-week skid and the major markets are still bound between correction (-10%) and a bear market (-20%). It will likely take more than a few good days of trading to come to some understanding of future direction.
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