Wednesday, December 21, 2011

European Banks Borrow $639 Billion From ECB; Oracle Tanks Techs

Santa Claus came and went. Apparently, his next stop was in Europe, where today, 523 struggling banks on the continent grabbed for $639 billion (489 billion euros) from the ECB's newest lending facility, which offered a sweetheart of a deal: 1% interest over three years. We should all be so lucky.

The huge amount of borrowing was frowned upon in the US. As the news hit America's shores, futures went into the tank on the perception that the amount borrowed was much higher than originally forecast and the sneaking suspicion that although the European banking system was obviously weak, it actually was in much worse shape than originally thought.

Stocks sent almost the entire day underwater, as poor results from Oracle last night after the close sent shock waves through the tech sector. Though the Dow, which was down as many as 104 points, and the S&P finished marginally positive, the NASDAQ ended the day with a serious loss, though it too cut its losses roughly in half by day's end.

In Washington, there was still no progress on the bill which would keep the current social security payroll deduction at current levels and also extend unemployment benefits to about two million people, as the House of Representatives announced their work for the week completed.

The bill was soundly passed in the Senate, and rejected by the House, mostly along party lines.

Also in Washington today, the Justice Department announced a $335 million settlement with Bank of America (BAC), stemming from a DofJ claim that Countrywide - since acquired by Bank of America - discriminated against over 200,000 black and Hispanic mortgage borrowers by charging them higher rates and fees than white homeowners.

While the settlement was the largest of its kind ever, the amount is a mere pittance in comparison to the economic damage wrought by Countrywide and other lenders during the mortgage and housing bust. BofA will pay the money directly to the government and the DofJ will supposedly dole out the proceeds to individuals and families affected by the discriminatory practices.

Attorney General Eric Holder, who seems to only show up after his department settles a case, said, "With today’s settlement, the federal government will ensure that the more than 200,000 African-American and Hispanic borrowers who were discriminated against by Countrywide will be entitled to compensation.”

It should be amusing to track exactly where that money goes.

There are just two more trading sessions before Christmas, three shopping days and a total of seven trading sessions remaining in 2011. Most investors can't wait for the year to end, as stocks have flat-lined for the most part and actually are well off the highs set in late April.

Dow 12,107.74, +4.16 (0.03%)
NASDAQ 2,577.97, -25.76 (0.99%)
S&P 500 1,243.72, +2.42 (0.19%)
NYSE Composite 7,388.52, +27.55 (0.37%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,866,553,125
NYSE Volume 3,574,281,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3153-2488
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 194-95
WTI crude oil: 98.67, +1.43
Gold: 1,613.60, -4.00
Silver: 29.25, -0.29


Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Santa Claus Comes to Wall Street

We all knew this was coming.

Good news or bad, there was going to be a Santa Claus Rally, and today was the day.

Any attempt to quantify or qualify this massive uplift on slightly positive news (really, there was nothing earth-shattering) would be foolhardy. Suffice it to say that the powers that be got the HFT computers cranked up at the open and didn't change the algorithms all day long.

It wasn't as though Europe was fixed for good, or that seven million people went back to work today, or that retail sales have been robust (anecdotally, the malls and the post office aren't especially busy). The top news - and it's suspect, at best - was that housing starts rose 9.3 percent to a 685,000 annual rate, though most of the gains were in multi-family units (rental apartments), which were up 25%, while new construction of single-family houses rose just 2.3 percent from the prior month, so, apparently, the fact that most people in America can't qualify for a mortgage and thus, must rent, qualifies as blockbuster good news.

Today's moves were somewhat misleading, as Santa Claus rallies often are. The closing prices on the major indices got them back to where they were about a week ago.

Merry Christmas. It was the feel-good rally for the season. By the time we hit January, this will be all but forgotten, so don't make a big thing out of it, OK?

Meanwhile, the markets actually should be a little bit uneasy over what's happening (or not happening, as the case may be) on Capitol Hill, where House Republicans refuse to pass the two-month social security payroll contribution reduction that was overwhelmingly passed by the Senate over the weekend.

Majority leader John Boehner took the extraordinary step of calling the Senate's bluff, saying they should come back to Washington to work out a better, longer deal. Most Senators have already exited the capitol, en route to a two-week vacation, while the nation stumbles on, without a comprehensive package.

Boehner, in calling out the Senate and President Obama, said, "President Obama needs to call on Senate Democrats to go back into session ... and resolve this bill as soon as possible."

Failure to pass a bill in the House will also curtail unemployment benefits to about two million Americans and Medicare payments to doctors will also be cut short.

The House did pass a bill, 229-193, that sends the legislation back to the Senate. However, with the Senate already out of town for the holidays, House Republicans have set up a perfect stalemate, just in time for the holidays.

Of course, none of this drama means anything to Wall Street, which had donned blinders for the session. Stocks closed at or ear their highs of the day on extremely light volume. All sectors and nearly all asset classes gained on the day, including gold, oil and silver, which had been beaten down mercilessly over the past two weeks.

Not to throw cold water on the festivities, but after the bell, Oracle (ORCL) missed on their quarterly numbers, coming in at 54 cents per share on expectations of 57 cents and missing revenue estimates of $9.2 billion by a mile, at $8.8 billion.

Also, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce tomorrow that they are revising, downward, existing home sales from the past five years, dating back to 2007, when the housing boom went bust. It may not mean a thing to the 1%ers on Wall Street, though the data will show that housing was - and is - in worse shape than previously reported.

Dow 12,103.43, +337.17 (2.87%)
NASDAQ 2,603.73, +80.59 (3.19%)
S&P 500 1,241.30, +35.95 (2.98%)
NYSE Composite 7,357.14, +214.69 (3.01%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,751,316,750
NYSE Volume 4,002,632,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4943-862
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 183-106
WTI crude oil: 97.22, +3.34
Gold: 1,617.60, +20.90
Silver: 29.54, +0.66

Innovate Your Way to Success

In today's uncertain business climate, risk taking is reserved for the truly entrepreneurial at heart. Those with an idea, a concept for change and an appetite for the unusual might find their niche in unusual places while those more intent on riding out the storm of economic crisis before committing to a fresh start may be left behind.

Business isn't just dollars and cents, it's dynamic, changeable and it often pays more to have a unique concept rather than be in a product or service area that "usually" makes money.

Innovative ideas are ones which change or challenge the status quo, and like Apple's iPod, iPhone and iPad, are often met with enthusiastic acceptance from the marketplace.

One example of how innovation was the key to success is how Blue Sky Scrubs (http://www.blueskyscrubs.com/) continues to change the look and custom of hospital garb around the world.

Founded by Shelby Marquardt, an anesthesiology resident at Hermann Hospital in Houston, Texas, she was inspired to create an operating room hat that fit her long hair, rather than settle for unattractive, ill-fitting scrub hats that were the norm.

Ms. Marquardt created the Pony Scrub Hat, and soon after, the Pixie Scrub Hat, patented both designs and her fledgling business was born. After having success with her hats, she decided to try her hand at other hospital wear, and soon, Blue Sky Scrubs was producing scrub tops, bottoms and lab coats that turned drab into unique and dull into a fashion statement with more color and variety.

Today, Blue Sky Scrubs sells a vast array of hospital and medical personnel wear to customers around the world, with orders streaming into the website.

Innovation isn't magic and it's not genetic. Anyone can innovate in any field of endeavor. Turning innovation into a successful business enterprise takes determination, desire and a bit of daring. In the case of Blue Sky Scrubs, Shelby Marquardt took on long-established hospital traditions and turned her designs into a compelling brand.

Monday, December 19, 2011

The Instant Market: Draghi and Bank of America Take It Down Two Notches

Once again, we are treated to the new reality of the "instant market" wherein news, or rumor, directs the flow of funds into or out of select equities, and today's catalysts were, as usual, from Europe (must have some news from Europe to move markets: it's the law) and oddly enough, from our old friends at Bank of America (BAC).

First, Europe. US markets opened with some hope and small gains across the indices. That was, until shortly after 10:00 New York time, when ECB President Mario Draghi commented that the ECB would not step up it's bond purchases, noting that monetary financing of states was not part of the treaty upon which the EU was formed. (Imagine, a world political leader actually sticking to what was agreed upon. A novel approach.)

That took the markets down a big notch, with the Dow, after hitting its highs of the day earlier - up 60 points - falling a full 120 points - to down 60 - in about an hour's time after Draghi's comments.

Draghi also said that any talk of the Euro-zone breaking apart were "morbid" and that the Euro was going to remain intact as a viable currency. He punted this gem:
I have no doubts whatsoever about the strength of the euro, about its permanence, about its irreversibility. But you have a lot of people, especially outside the euro area, who spend a lot of time in what I call morbid speculation.

While Draghi may be right about the morbidity part, the thought that the Euro is irreplaceable or inviolate is nothing more than CYA job protection. He's paid to oversee the ECB, and talking up the currency is part of his job. Somebody ought to hand Draghi a history book. Greece fell, Rome fell, Germany rose and fell a couple of times, at least. Nothing lasts forever, and, with only 11 years of history under its belt, the Euro is experiencing something of a severe confidence crisis, if not a complete failure by some of its constituents.

Most of those "morbid" speculators give the Euro another six to eighteen months, tops. And while it may indeed survive, and prove Draghi correct in the near term, it's another bad idea stemming from too many government bureaucrats attempting to furnish a centrally-planned socialist solution where none was needed. In many ways, the Euro resembles the Medicare/Medicade mess in the US, wherein the government stepped all over the established free market to create a system that is out of control and benefits mostly large medical insurance companies instead of real people with health care needs. The Euro was supposed to affect the entire continent in magical, positive ways. It has, thus far, produced a great deal of pain, financial inequities and sparked a world-wide crisis, even though that crisis was well underway, being all about fiat money anyway.

Stocks drifted along until about 3:00 pm ET when the PPT or whomever was hitting the bid - for hours - on Bank of America at 5.00 - 5.03, stopped, failed and rolled over. The bank that many equate with the financial collapse of 2008, hit a fresh, 33-month low, hitting 4.92 prior to closing at 4.99, an important figure, since many funds, by charter, cannot trade in stocks priced under 5.00, or must severely limit the size of their investment in such low-priced equities.

With banks under pressure the entire session, the demise of BAC took the whole market down the second notch, into the close. So much for recovery, at least by the "well-capitalized" US banks, whose ledgers are an indecipherable miasma of imaginary valuations, off-balance-sheet assets and liabilities and mark-to-model fantasies. With books so complex and confusing most CPAs don't understand them and after relentless support from the federal government (much of it in secret), is there any doubt that most stock pickers have shied away from US financial stocks as a whole?

Bank of America, along with Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, to name just a few, should have been broken up in 2008-09, when they were insolvent (and still are, largely), though that would have ended the near-total dominance of the Federal Reserve and its constituents over all transactions in the US economy and beyond, and the rich bankers and their supporters simply could not stand for that. Instead, it was easier for them to socialize the losses on the backs of the US taxpayers.

Bank of America's recent swoon is only a small chapter in the ongoing saga that will bring down the oligarchical nature of our corrupt political and financial system. 99%ers are celebrating.

A couple of items of note:

Ron Paul, the Republican presidential candidate that the establishment loves to hate, has taken the lead in Iowa accordind to the most recent polling by Public Policy Polling (PPP), one of a handful of organizations tracking the rise and fall of candidates in the upcoming (January 3) caucuses.

The results have Paul at 23%, leading Mitt Romney (20%) and a rapidly declining Newt Gingrich (14%), even though Romney recently picked up the endorsement of the the Des Moines Register, Iowa's leading newspaper. Paul is also reported to have taken in more than $4 million over the past weekend, and now is in second place, behind Romney, in New Hampshire.

Also, a searing report on where we're headed in 2012, called the Thunder Road Report, leading with the cryptic warning, "Dear Portfolio Manager, you are leaving the capitalist sector and heading into a full-spectrum crisis."

The entire report is available at the end of this post.

Anybody seen Santa?

Dow 11,766.26, -100.13 (0.84%)
NASDAQ 2,523.14, -32.19 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,205.35, -14.31 (1.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,142.45, -95.21 (1.32%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,591,603,125
NYSE Volume 3,659,820,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1230-4469
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 110-290 (blowing out)
WTI crude oil: 93.88, +0.35
Gold: 1,596.70, -1.20
Silver: 28.87, -0.80


TRoad25

Friday, December 16, 2011

Odd Flat Finish on Quadruple Witching Day

Four times a year, the markets encounter what are known as quadruple witching days, in which all four varieties of futures and options expire on a single day, normally the third Friday of the month, as today.

On those usually-volatile sessions, there's usually a good chance that stocks will finish strongly to the positive or the negative, so it was a bit of keeping with the current theme that stocks finished the week flat, though on higher volume than has been seen lately.

It's on these quiet days that, somewhat counter-intuitively, investors can find real diamonds in the rough, but, since many hedge funds have already closed their books for the year, and, taking into account the continuing crisis in Europe and the slow pace in the US, traders were focused more on catching the quickest train out of town for the weekend rather than researching or taking positions in fresh equities.

News flow was also quite on the light side, though Fitch Ratings did its best to unnerve already-skittish investors by lowering France's AAA credit outlook from stable to negative and placing six European nations - Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, Italy, Ireland and Cyprus - on ratings watch negative, putting the six on a heightened probability of downgrade once the company completes its review by the end of January 2012.

The economic data on Friday was also not inspiring to either bulls nor bears, as CPI for November was flat with the core CPI - excluding food and energy - was up 0.2%. More than likely, if one is to believe the government bean-counters, this is indicative of a slow economy leaving companies without much pricing power, and, intuitively, a harbinger of another small wave of deflation in the near term.

Thus, stocks ended the week with their first loss in the last three, though the vast majority of the damage was done on Tuesday, the other sessions more or less range-bound.

With just ten trading days remaining in the year, traders are keeping a sharp eye out for Santa Calus and his rally hat, though there have been no sightings of the jolly fat man nor of any catalyst to spark a significant year-end rally.

In the immortal words of George W. Bush, "go shopping."

Dow 11,866.39, -2.42 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,555.33, +14.32 (0.56%)
S&P 500 1,219.66, +3.91 (0.32%)
NYSE Compos 7,237.65, +20.55 (0.28%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,453,577,500
NYSE Volume 4,921,504,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3315-2258
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-164
WTI crude oil: 93.53, -0.34
Gold: 1,597.90, +20.70
Silver: 29.67, +0.40