Golf Beats Dead Markets Any Day of the Week

Because the markets in this country - and just about everywhere else in the world - are so ridiculously contrived, manipulated and thinly-traded (meaning, they can't make realistic markets for a lot of stocks), I decided to cu out of here around 3:00 pm ET and play nine holes of golf.

Now, that may sound like a fairly mundane shirking of responsibility, but the fact of the matter is that I live in Rochester, NY, where the average high for March 12 is about 42 degrees, hardly good golf conditions. Today, however, the high temperature was around 62 degrees, and I played the nine holes in shorts and a short sleeve shirt. Shot a 54, which, for me, isn't bad, considering it was only the second time I've played in two years and outside of a 10 on the 16th hole (we played the back nine), it was a satisfying round, especially the tee shot I plunked down on 18 within 20 feet of the pin, which I then cozied up an tapped in for a par.

Since spending $12 playing golf makes more sense these days than putting money into this ridiculously-valued stocks market, the break from the routine was appreciated. Besides, with Wall Street on hold in anticipation of the Fed's FOMC doing nothing tomorrow besides possibly dropping "hints" on whether there will be more QE (free cash to big banks), it seemed prudent to bug out for an afternoon.

Checking back in here after 9:00 pm ET, it appears I didn't miss much, though this story: Entire Arena Football team cut during pregame meal at Olive Garden caught my attention. Only in America, the home of income disparity, can Peyton Manning, who missed all of last season with a neck injury and is 36 years old (nearing end of career), be traveling around the country checking out which franchise will pay him multiple tens of millions of dollars, while these poor grunts are eating at Olive Garden and being cut because the team, and the league, doesn't want to pay them more than $500 per game. Heck, that's what old AFL players were making back in the sixties.

Anyhow, don't get too excited when the FOMC says the federal funds rate will remain at zero to 0.25% tomorrow, because, after all, God created economists to make weathermen look good.

Also, and correct me if I'm wrong, but today's volume was easily the lowest for any full trading day in the past ten years, probably longer. Think maybe some people have lost faith in the Wall Street money machine? Hmmm? Just maybe?

This is a broken system my friends and it's only a matter of time before it all comes tumbling down. Two weeks, two years? Who knows? The people running the show are really good at impressions, and that's seemingly all that matters these days.

Dow 12,959.71, +37.69 (0.29%)
NASDAQ 2,983.66, -4.68 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,371.09, +0.22 (0.02%)
NYSE Compos... 8,086.28, -15.83 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,343,738,750
NYSE Volume 3,086,209,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2496-3094
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 201-35 (yeah, really?)
WTI crude oil: 106.34, -1.06
Gold: 1,699.80, -11.80 (complete BS)
Silver: 33.41, -0.80 (utterly absurd)

Greece OK for Now; NFP Prints at 233K; Trading Volume Pathetic

Two major news events largely determined the tenor of trade on US markets Friday.

The Greek restructuring plan went as the global banking cartel liked, with non-governmental lenders taking a 53.5% haircut on bad Greek bonds, while the troika's funding facilities remained intact.

Triggering the collective action clauses and a credit "event" according to the ISDA (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) in which affected parties will settle up on March 19. With just a little over $3 billion in Credit Default Swaps affected in the deal, the effect is little more than a rounding error in the international scheme of things, or roughly the amount Bank of America writes off in a typical quarter.

Prior to the open, the BLS offered another positive reading on unemployment, with the official rate staying unchanged at 8.3%, as the US economy created 233K jobs during February, strongly aided by a raft of temporary hires and the usual fudging by the Labor Department.

Like it or not, the impression is that the US continues to emerge from the depths of the Great Recession, as the calendar turned three years old on the current bull market in equities.

For the week, the major indices were little changed, and, despite all the hoopla, trading volume continued to be incredibly weak, especially on Friday, one of the lowest-volume days of the year, which has seen nothing but poor volume.

Market participants appear to be smug over the developments in Greece and Europe, which continues to avert crises on a regular basis, even though Greece is now in a depression, their latest quarter GDP showing a 7.5% decline.

But, hey, it's the weekend and college basketball is heading into its wild March Madness phase, so relax and enjoy seems to be the operative mindset, though commodity prices, especially in oil, gold and silver, tell a different story.

Dow 12,922.02, +14.08 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,988.34, +17.92 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,370.87, +4.96 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,102.13, +19.75 (0.24%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,553,531,125
NYSE Volume 3,527,470,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3837-1653
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 278-26
WTI crude oil: 107.38, +0.80
Gold: 1,711.50, +12.80
Silver: 34.21, +0.38

Market Knee-Jerk Response to Greek Deal is a Bullish One

Though there has been no official announcement, apparently, market participants believe that the Greek restructuring of their private debt (a 53.5% haircut for bond-holders) is a done deal.

This was always assumed to be the case, as nobody wanted a credit event and a triggering of the collective action clauses (though that WILL happen) and thus, force payouts of CDS as if Greece actually did default (which it of course did, which is why it suddenly changed its laws regarding bonds).

If all of this sounds too fantastic or incomprehensible is because all reporting today was based entirely upon rumors. The actual tally of how many and what percentage of the private bond holders agreed to the deal won't be known until 1:00 am ET at the earliest and probably not until 8:00 am ET, when the group arranging the deal will hold a news conference.

As usual, the most measured and unbiased reporting is being done by the Christian Science Monitor which has as its headline, Greece to investors: take a haircut so we can get our bailout and includes this little gem a few paragraphs into the article:

According to the deal the Greek government negotiated with the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents most of Greece's private sector creditors, investors will write off 53.5 percent of debt – which amounts to a waiver of 74 percent when the loss in future interest is taken into account – and exchange the rest of bonds they are holding into new papers which are worth less, have a longer maturity, and pay less interest.

So, according to equity market participants, having private bondholders - mostly banks and hedge funds - take a 74% loss on their investments - only to repackage a new deal to the same defaulting party - is better than having a country actually default on its debt and start over. Plus, this agreement paves the way for Greece to take on more debt that it can't possibly repay, ensuring that we'll reprise this particular farce all over again somewhere down the road.

If that is what passes for good news these days, then there's little wonder why most individuals are not invested in the stock markets, nor want to be. It also serves as a prime example of why most people don't trust banks, governments or the media, because instead of having debtors who can't pay back loans default, the prevaricators of this particular brand of financial suicide actually prefer pretending and replaying the same canard over and over again (like the US government and the Fed did with the too big to fail banks in 2008-09), all along adding even more debt, more derivative bets (CDS) and more equity market euphoria to the calculus.

It's a dangerous game, one in which any individual large player could pull the rug out from beneath everyone else at a moment's notice, although that's a scenario unlikely to occur because it would be the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with all chambers loaded.

If today's good news is that Greece isn't defaulting - at least not today - and the markets respond positively, one must ponder what would happen if there was some actual good news. Recalling images of the late Great One, Jackie Gleason, from the Honeymooners, "to the moon, Alice, to the moon."

Dow 12,907.94, +70.61 (0.55%)
NASDAQ 2,970.42, +34.73 (1.18%)
S&P 500 1,365.91, +13.28 (0.98%)
NYSE Composite 8,082.36, +102.58 (1.29%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,620,493,125
NYSE Volume 3,442,931,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4295-1323
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 199-30
WTI crude oil: 106.58, +0.42
Gold: 1,698.70, +14.80
Silver: 33.83, +0.25

Who Goosed the Stock Market? The PPT Did, That's Who

The more one endeavors to make sense of the movements of the major equity indices, the more one becomes convinced that there is major manipulation going on behind the scenes and today was just another prime example to throw into the conspiracy hopper.

While the Dow gained 78 points today, all of the gains were produced in roughly a one hour period, from 10:30 am to 11:30 am ET, on extremely light volume. The Dow moved from barely unchanged (12,760) to a gain of nearly eighty points (12,340), which just so happened to be roughly where it closed.

Did Greece's private debt holders agree to a deal at that hour? No.

Did ADP report a gain of 216,000 net private job gains for February. Sorry, that happened at 8:15 am, and the response was pretty muted.

So... let's see. Low volume (if today wasn't the lowest volume of the year, it was certainly close), stocks sliding back near unchanged right after a major selloff the previous session... like the calvary riding to the rescue in a cliche old time Western movie, the PPT - otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team and officially known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets has been hard at work ever since 1988, keeping US stock indices safe from free-falling collapses and lately, from even slight declines that might make the markets appear to be as weak as they really are and boosting stock prices when the trading activity all but dries up.

While Joe and Jane Sixpack reads just the headlines and understands nothing except, "honey, our retirement pension fund is up again!" out in the real world its endless money printing and insider stock manipulations that keep the American Dream alive and well.

It's become so blatant and obvious that it is rarely commented upon by even the most suspicious bloggers and underground financial writers. The mainstream press never mentions that the PPT has offices right in New York's financial district - the easier to send orders flying into the fray - or that said offices are owned by the NY Fed.

So, forget everything you just read and move along. You are not supposed to think, analyze or ask any questions. There's nothing to see here, or at least nothing you're supposed to see. In ten seconds your computer will automatically destroy this posting, and your brain will be wiped clean of the heretical commentary presented.

9...8...7...6...

Dow 12,837.33, +78.18 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 2,935.69, +25.37 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,352.63, +9.27 (0.69%)
NYSE Composite 7,979.83, +59.69 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,560,044,000
NYSE Volume 3,515,704,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4287-1316
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 93-43
WTI crude oil: 106.16, +1.46
Gold: 1,683.90, +11.80
Silver: 33.58, +0.80

Individual Investors Not Buying Growth and Recovery Myths

Institutional investors, like hedge funds, mutual funds, retirement funds and the like, have a vested interest in keeping stock prices on the rise, such as has been seen in the first few months of this new year.

On the flip side, individual investors have shied away from equities in a meaningful way since the economic collapse of 2008 and few have ventured back. Their reasoning became evident today as stocks were hard-hit globally, beginning overnight in Asia and accelerating with large losses on the european exchanges. By the time the opening bell rang in New York, Wall Street was bracing for a world of hurt.

Remember that disturbing, repeating pattern mentioned at length here yesterday? The one in which stocks fell sharply at the open, only to gradually improve throughout the remainder of the session?

As it appears today, those dips and rises might have been nothing more than smart money getting out ahead of the carnage to come. The repeated attempts and failures for the Dow to close over 13,000 were at least a set-up for a trend top in stocks and may have signaled an impending correction or even outright rout.

The reasons for weakness in stocks could have been predicted by the constancy of low trading volumes, mixed to negative economic data and the non-confirmation by the transportation index. Wall Street's professional prostelitizing over the need for individuals to "get back into the market" or "stay invested" has been running contrary to evidence for quite some time, and it may finally begin to sink in that continual growth is an impossibility and the US "recovery" is nothing but a well-managed myth, propagated by the control freaks in Washington and New York and promulgated by the whores of the media.

Wall Street's five-month-long, liquidity-fueled bogus rally is coming to a quick end. All the cheerleaders for "dow 13,000" are going to look pretty stupid in coming weeks and months as the widely-watched average hovers closer to 12,000 and possibly even lower. How low it will go nobody knows for sure, though there are elements already in place, like Greece, Europe in recession, slowing economies in China, India and Brazil, high food and fuel prices, that could plunge the world into a re-enactment of the 2008 crash, only that this time, fed funds rates are already at zero and tens of trillions of dollars have been thrown at the problems without results.

Today's drop was the first triple-digit decline for the Dow of the new year and the largest percentage decline since November 23. That it comes a day before the release of the ADP private employment data report - which serves as a proxy for Friday's NFP call - is probably not a coincidence. Neither is it coincidental that private bond investors in the Greek bailout will vote on whether or not to accept the terms of a debt restructuring (read: haircut) on Thursday. Bad news might remain in the shadows for a while and might be purposely ignored, but eventually it surfaces, and by then it's usually worse than expected.

In the globally-connected world created by the Keynesian genii central bank economists, Greece's problems are Europe's and our own, and Chinas and everybody's. The contagion which will proceed from Europe will engulf all markets and all countries. Central bankers will have two options: lying and printing, which has been proven ineffective, or, bank liquidations, sovereign defaults and global deflation. They will likely opt for more "pretend and extend" tactics, leading to more inflation and more phony markets in which people of common sense will not participate. The other, proper, Austrian-style solution may be more painful at first for some, but once the toxic debts and zombie banks are flushed from the system, real recovery can begin.

This week and the next two may prove to be as pivotal in terms of the survivability for the entire global economic structure as any time in the last thirty years.

One should not be worried unless one has a job, a pension or most of one's wealth in stocks because the one-percenters of the world are about to become even more vilified than ever as the world's problems are brought out into the open and some may even join the ranks of the feeble top 20 percent. What the global nanking and political cartel has wrought will almost surely destroy more than a few ill-gotten fortunes and many more honestly-made ones, but, whatever path is taken, more economic pain is nearly assured, though this time it will be more evenly distributed.

In fact, those clinging to the bottom rungs of the economic ladder may fare best of all.

Dow 12,759.15, -203.66 (1.57%)
NASDAQ 2,910.32, -40.16 (1.36%)
S&P 500 1,343.36, -20.97 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 7,920.13, -171.14 (2.12%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,870,041,375
NYSE Volume 4,171,692,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 724-4956
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 50-82 (flipped, finally)
WTI crude oil: 104.70, -2.02
Gold: 1,672.10, -31.80
Silver: 32.78, -0.91