S&P Closes Under 1400; Precious Metals Whacked

The follow-on from yesterday's FOMC minutes release, combined with scary data from Australia and China (slowing economies) sent markets tumbling globally.

Asia and Europe each saw aggressive selling, and by the time US markets opened - despite ADP March employment data posting a modest beat of 209,000 jobs - the Dow was set up for a 100-point loss at the open.

The opening move was swiftly lower, taking the other major indices along for the ride. Dow Industrials remained below 13,100 all day, with the S&P 500 - despite a late day rally - eventually closing below 1400 for the first time in eight sessions.

To say that the markets have topped out temporarily would be putting it lightly; rather, stocks seem to be in a steady drift lower, as Winter turns to Spring and investors seek to lock in profits from one of the most rambunctious first quarters in stock market history.

Conditions in Europe once again made noise in the states, as a poor showing for a Spanish bond offering and rumors of another bailout for Portugal fanned the flames of global recession.

While some commentators continue to spout nonsense that the US is "decoupling" from Europe and the rest of the world's economies, such talk is nothing but hot air, mostly from the same people who rightly contended during the struggles in the US that a large portion of US earnings are derived from abroad.

One simply cannot have it both ways. We are either a part of the global economy or we are not and the facts are strongly in favor of the "globalized" economy model.

What concerns investors most during this transitional period are fears of a prolonged slump in Europe which would exacerbate tepid conditions in the US. Economic data has been fragile of late, but hope for a renewal to the rally on first quarter earnings data from US companies is keeping the markets somewhat range-bound and in a position of relative strength, though the thought of the Fed cutting off the easy money with the end of "operation twist" in June are tempering the bullish sentiments.

While stocks were damaged on the day, gold and silver were even harder hit, which makes little sense from an historical perspective. In times of economic distress, the precious metals usually hold up better, but, since they have been turned into trading vehicles by the Wall Street madmen, such assumptions may not hold up this time around. The mood is eerily similar to that of September 2008, when a fragile economy was overturned by a number of random events. The situation is vastly different today, however, but a major crisis anywhere in the world could rapidly spread.

In the face of some chaos, the strengthening dollar is at least bringing down oil prices, which should eventually lower the price of gas in the US. The high price of fuel is in itself a condition which could severely slow the already turbid US economy, though the good news for drivers may not be welcomed by equity investors.

The new high - new low indicator flipped to the negative today for the first time in a long while. Any continuation of that trend indicator could signal a prolonged correction, something the three-year-old bull market has not experienced since the flagging days of last summer.

Dow 13,074.75, -124.80 (0.95%)
NASDAQ 3,068.09, -45.48 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,398.96, -14.42 (1.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,111.48, -105.06 (1.28%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,779,653,500
NYSE Volume 3,810,047,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1079-4563
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 65-109
WTI crude oil: 101.47, -2.54
Gold: 1,614.10, -57.90
Silver: 31.04, -2.22

The Market's Cynical Response to a "Good" Economy

Just in case anybody (everybody) is having trouble understanding current market dynamics, today's response to the 2:00 pm EDT release of minutes from the last FOMC rate policy meeting in March should serve to middy matters even further.

Not to make too fine a point of it, but the Fed governors were fairly sanguine about the economy and hinted that if the economy continued to plod along at its current snail's pace there would probably be little to no need for further policy easing or, in the parlance of today's twisted environment, more quantitative easing (QE).

Upon hearing the news, the knee-jerk response would be optimistic and stocks would be expected to get a bit of a bounce, but, in this cynical environment, the exact opposite happened. The major indices had been meandering along the unchanged line, but sold off sharply when the Fed minutes were released.

Throw conventional thinking out the window. All that matters, apparently, to the wizards of Wall Street, is for the Fed to keep the printing presses well oiled and running, feeding more free cash to the banks and their brokerages, in order to keep this most unrealistic market rally ever witnessed rolling along.

The logic works thusly: if the Fed stops printing, Wall Street will no longer have the risk-free trading to which they've become so accustomed to over the past three years, so, any sign that the economy is actually improving, which would end the free money party, must be met with disdain.

It is the most cynical market response to good news that's been seen around these parts in many a year and yet another reason why most individuals have shunned stocks for so long. They simply do not make sense as sound investments when herd-like machinations can take them down in the face of good news.

Orwell would be proud, but only for a moment.

Dow 13,199.55, -64.94 (0.49%)
NASDAQ 3,113.57, -6.13 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,413.38, -5.66 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,216.54, -64.29 (0.78%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,791,503,250
NYSE Volume 3,790,125,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1841-3782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 250-61
WTI crude oil: 104.01, -1.22
Gold: 1,647.00, -32.70
Silver: 32.62, -0.48

Predictable Markets Sure Signs of Manipulation and False Hope

Money Daily does not make many predictions, but last week it was postulated that both Friday and Monday would show gains on the major indices, due to window dressing (Friday) and start of quarter allocation euphoria.

Both of these predictions were proven correct by a market that is now so transparently manipulated that investing has become nothing more than understanding the general mood. That is not a healthy market and surely not a sustainable model, but it is what we have, thanks to lax regulatory bodies and almost omnipotent control by the banking and financial services industry.

Friday and Monday's dual melt-up (on abysmally low volume, as usual) makes a case for the decrepit condition of US (and to a large degree, global) markets. They are old-boy networks and the only traders are strictly Wall Street insiders. These tendencies reveal much of what the general public does not perceive: that the markets have been broken since the financial collapse of 2008 and the ephemeral "gains" are nothing but the product of excessively loose economic policy and a disastrous fiscal policy being fostered at the top of the federal system.

Additionally, to say that the system is corrupt would be giving it a good name. It has gone well beyond corruption; what we now have is a false oligopoly that is baseless and doomed to eventual failure.

A couple of key points were made from data today, which, in more normal times, would have resulted in some caution and probably a general decline, but today's market is a monstosity of central planning which has nothing to do with the mundane facts of economic reality.

The ISM Index - a national barometer - checked in at 53.4 for March, after a reading of 52.4 in February. The metrics used in the calculation of of the index are distorted beyond recognition, as are most "official" economic readings. Even still, taken at face value, the index is registering just bare expansion, and will likely be revised lower in an upcoming debacle of data massage.

More importantly, the February construction spending number came in at a disappointing -1.0%, following a -0.8% reading in January. This, in the midst of one of the warmest winters on record is a serious issue, and, discounting the veracity of such a statistic, the real number is probably more like -3.0%.

The markets and the computers that do the trading were obviously adjusted to ignore these numbers; thus, the inordinate rise in stocks on the day.

It's a very sad state of affairs on Wall Street. The desperation in the brokerages is palpable and apparent to anyone who watches these things with both eyes open. The eventual crash will be horrifying to anyone with trust in these hopelessly deranged markets.

Dow 13,264.49, +52.45 (0.40%)
NASDAQ 3,119.70, +28.13 (0.91%)
S&P 500 1,419.04, +10.57 (0.75%)
NYSE Composite 8,280.83, +73.90 (0.90%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,778,994,250
NYSE Volume 3,579,872,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4092-1538
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 273-43
WTI crude oil: 105.23, +2.21
Gold: 1,679.70, +7.70
Silver: 33.10, +0.61

First Quarter window Dressing Complete

Little explanation needed for the results below. Pure window dressing on a day-long melt up by the fundies, loading up on first quarter top performers and blue chips like Apple, Chipolte Mexican Grill, Bank of America, IBM and other garbage momentum stocks, just so they can say, "see, we own that!"

Amusing that the Naz was down for the day. Somebody must have taken massive profits on Apple.

Nice to see gold and silver making a move, though they are both well off recent highs.

Dow 13,212.04, +66.22 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 3,091.57, -3.79 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,408.47, +5.19 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 8,206.93, +40.56 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,831,280,750
NYSE Volume 3,598,988,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2972-2654
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 212-
WTI crude oil: 103.02, +0.24
Gold: 1,669.30, +17.10
Silver: 32.48, 0.49

Thursday Turnaround Mostly Vapors and Short-Covering

Let's see if we can find the good news that took the Dow back from a morning loss of 94 points to a gain of nearly 20 points by day's end?

Initial employment claims came in at 359K on expectations of 350K and the prior week was revised higher, from 348K originally reported to 364K. Well, that can't be it.

The third and final estimate for fourth quarter 2011 GDP remained steady at 3.0%. Maybe.

Moody's downgraded five Portugese banks. Nope.

Gas at the pump is still hovering around the $3.90/gallon range, on average, across the United States. Hmmm, probably not.

Those were the major headlines and issues on this Turnaround Thursday, as all the major averages fell out of bed, then through the magic of computer-programmatic algorithms, found a suitable bottom and rose through the afternoon and into the close.

In days past, chartists would say that the market put in another, higher bottom, but this intra-day bottom happened to be the low for the week. In other words, the monster rally from Monday was all eaten up by greedy, high-powered day-traders who more or less control this thinly-traded market.

Now, volume was a bit more perky today, but that would be due likely to short covering and the fact that it takes more trades to move all the indices from a cratered loss to near the break-even point. All of it is rather meaningless, since only the major banks, brokerages, fund managers and some moribund hedge funds have actually been engaging in this casino-style market since the middle of 2010, right after the flash crash scared out the last remaining individual investors.

As mentioned in yesterday's post, this is all leading up to a big rally coming either Friday (1st quarter window dressing) or Monday (first trading day of the quarter), or both. Not that the end of a quarter or the beginning of one has anything to do with fundamentals, they're just when the big boys open and close their books, so it gives them something upon which to hang their hats.

The bull market that began in March of 2009 has been one of the best in history, with the major indices all up close to or more than 100% from the bottom. Doubling your money in three years is a trick only the magicians of Wall Street can perform, though they got plenty of help from the taxpayers and rich Uncle Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve.

In fact, uncle Ben is still pumping out scads of greenbacks to keep the rally going, because in case anyone cares to look at the Fed's policies of the past three to four years, the stock market gains are about the only positive result among them.

Sure, sure, everyone pats Bernanke on the back for "saving" the economy, but what he really saved was the banks, which had fallen over a solvency cliff. The government has been running record deficits ever since the '08 crash, the value of the dollar is on a gentle glide-path to zero, just like Ben's interest rates, inflation continues to ravage household budgets, while low interest rates on savings are killing seniors. Housing is still declining, another credit bubble - in the form of student loans, auto leases and credit cards - is forming rapidly and small business is too busy keeping up with Washington's rule changes and mountains of regulations to actually hire anyone or expand. Entrepreneurs have been completely scared off and looking to foreign shores for opportunity.

So, really, what did Ben Bernanke save besides his banking buddies and his own job? Oh, that's right, Europe. But, but, but, that's not his job, is it?

Dow 13,145.82, +19.61 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 3,095.36, -9.60 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,403.28, -2.26 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 8,166.37, -21.98 (0.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,819,875
NYSE Volume 3,772,621,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2268-3291
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 108-61
WTI crude oil: 102.78, -2.63
Gold: 1,652.20, -5.70
Silver: 31.99, +0.16