Despite first quarter GDP printing at 2.2% prior to the opening bell, there was simply no holding back the animal spirits, as investors continued to shrug off any hint of bad news for the economy and push stocks to nosebleed levels.
Though gains were modest, they nevertheless were gains, based on nothing other than sentiment and greed. New highs expanded dramatically over a paucity of new lows.
Oil, gold and silver all posted modest gains. Overall, it was one of the duller sessions of the year, the typical low volume dynamic fully in play.
Dow 13,228.31, +23.69 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,069.20, +18.59 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,403.36, +3.38 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,151.91, +28.84 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,807,514,500
NYSE Volume 3,645,831,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3714-1855
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 347-42
WTI crude oil: 104.93, +0.38
Gold: 1,664.80, +4.30
Silver: 31.35, +0.14
Friday, April 27, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Markets Churn Higher on Absence of Data
There was little to move stocks in either direction today, but the algorithm-driven dynamic kept the same tone as it has pretty much since October and churned higher without any heed to downside risk.
Initial unemployment claims continued to be elevated, coming in at 388K after last week's revised 389K reading. The most positive news was pending home sales for March coming in 4.1% higher, a significant beat of expectations of a mere 0.5% gain.
Otherwise, there were a number of misses on corporate first quarter earnings reports, including UPS (UPS) and Dow Chemical (DD), but that didn't hold back stocks in the least as they started the day slowly and continued higher throughout the session, reaching the highs for the day shortly after 3:00 pm EDT.
There was a slight pullback into the close, but the final figures left the Dow Jones Industrials just 60 points from fresh four-year highs and the S&P 500 closing just two cents shy of 1400, a mark the index has not closed above since April 3rd.
Europe finished mixed, though the gains and losses of the particular exchanges were marginal. As has been the case over the past six to seven months, the absence of any kind of news out of Europe - which has been routinely bad - gives US markets a nudge higher, and such was the case on today's trading.
Analysts are hopeful that the week's gains can be sustained after Friday's first estimate of first quarter 2012 GDP, which will be announced prior to the market open. Market expectations are for somewhere between 2.5% and 3.0% growth, which would not be surprising, given a US economy that is being spoon-fed by government largesse, with more than 45 million Americans on food stamps and millions more receiving some form of government assistance while the Fed continues to dole out money hand over fist through its Operation Twist.
While all this stealth stimulus may be giving stocks a relatively easy time of it, at some point the government will have to deal with the monstrous deficits and the growing underfunding of the entitlement programs.
Being an election year, however, neither congress nor the president will go legislatively within earshot of those issues except in well-rehearsed campaign speeches, so, the current conditions will continue uninterrupted - barring some unforeseen event - until November. On the other hand, the Fed's current easing cycle will end in June, and it will be interesting to note how well the markets handle any lack of support.
Until further notice, it appears to be smooth sailing for stock hawkers, traders and investors. Somewhat counterintuitive, the precious metals had their best showing in weeks, though they remain range-bound.
Dow 13,204.62, +113.90 (0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,050.61, +20.98 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,399.98, +9.29 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,123.07, +52.29 (0.65%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,965,375
NYSE Volume 3,864,227,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3682-1910
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 259-46
WTI crude oil: 104.55, +0.43
Gold: 1,660.50, +18.20
Silver: 31.21, +0.85
Initial unemployment claims continued to be elevated, coming in at 388K after last week's revised 389K reading. The most positive news was pending home sales for March coming in 4.1% higher, a significant beat of expectations of a mere 0.5% gain.
Otherwise, there were a number of misses on corporate first quarter earnings reports, including UPS (UPS) and Dow Chemical (DD), but that didn't hold back stocks in the least as they started the day slowly and continued higher throughout the session, reaching the highs for the day shortly after 3:00 pm EDT.
There was a slight pullback into the close, but the final figures left the Dow Jones Industrials just 60 points from fresh four-year highs and the S&P 500 closing just two cents shy of 1400, a mark the index has not closed above since April 3rd.
Europe finished mixed, though the gains and losses of the particular exchanges were marginal. As has been the case over the past six to seven months, the absence of any kind of news out of Europe - which has been routinely bad - gives US markets a nudge higher, and such was the case on today's trading.
Analysts are hopeful that the week's gains can be sustained after Friday's first estimate of first quarter 2012 GDP, which will be announced prior to the market open. Market expectations are for somewhere between 2.5% and 3.0% growth, which would not be surprising, given a US economy that is being spoon-fed by government largesse, with more than 45 million Americans on food stamps and millions more receiving some form of government assistance while the Fed continues to dole out money hand over fist through its Operation Twist.
While all this stealth stimulus may be giving stocks a relatively easy time of it, at some point the government will have to deal with the monstrous deficits and the growing underfunding of the entitlement programs.
Being an election year, however, neither congress nor the president will go legislatively within earshot of those issues except in well-rehearsed campaign speeches, so, the current conditions will continue uninterrupted - barring some unforeseen event - until November. On the other hand, the Fed's current easing cycle will end in June, and it will be interesting to note how well the markets handle any lack of support.
Until further notice, it appears to be smooth sailing for stock hawkers, traders and investors. Somewhat counterintuitive, the precious metals had their best showing in weeks, though they remain range-bound.
Dow 13,204.62, +113.90 (0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,050.61, +20.98 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,399.98, +9.29 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,123.07, +52.29 (0.65%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,965,375
NYSE Volume 3,864,227,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3682-1910
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 259-46
WTI crude oil: 104.55, +0.43
Gold: 1,660.50, +18.20
Silver: 31.21, +0.85
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Computer-driven Market Continues to Defy Gravity
Following Apple's huge beat on first quarter earnings after yesterday's closing bell, nothing was going to stop the Wall Street horde from bidding up everything tech and everything else, for that matter.
Stocks roared out of the gate, despite the worst durable goods orders in more than three years. The 4.2% decline for March was the worst print since January of 2009.
Even such a negative report on a critical indicator could not stop the flurry of computer-driven orders (now a full 83% of the total market) from diving headlong into equities. Apple (AAPL) opened the trading day more than 50 points to the upside (nearly 9%) and held steady through the remainder of the session, finishing with a gain of 49.72 to close at 610, rendering the sharp losses of the past two weeks to the dustbin of history.
When the FOMC announced no change in interest rate policy - keeping the targeted federal funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points - and little change in the wording of their statement (though slightly more hawkish), there was barely a reaction, as computers programmed to buy don't react to announcements of no change to a failed macro-economic policy.
This is truly not your father's stock market. Algorithmic trading has turned what once was the engine of the financial world into a complete farce where humans have little to do or say and fundamentals do not matter. There is rarely a reasoned reaction to any economic news, only an incessant grind higher. In addition to the computer-driven market dynamics, the advent of weekly options trading has turned US markets into a carnival that would give honest casinos a bad name.
Daily swings of enormous percentages are now the norm, as the algos follow each other into buying patterns that do not recognize downside risk. There is no place for the individual investor as the machines have a huge advantage in both timing and speed of execution, which is why stocks trade more or less on the futures, causing massive gaps to either the upside or downside upon market opening, locking out small limit orders. There is no way to play in such a controlled sandbox, as any gains will already be taken by the HFT machines and their controllers before an order can be properly executed.
That is why volume will continue to remain on the light side. Individual investors stand no chance of making profits and have stayed away, despite the outlandish and often ridiculous gains.
Global thermo-nuclear war could break out and the computers would still trade stocks higher. It's like a bad Terminator movie, in which the puny humans are no match for the pre-programmed droids.
Dow 13,090.72, +89.16 (0.69%)
NASDAQ 3,029.63, +68.03 (2.30%)
S&P 500 1,390.69, +18.72 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,070.84, +82.82 (1.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,697,138,250
NYSE Volume 3,981,364,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4223-1395
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-42
WTI crude oil: 104.12, +0.57
Gold: 1,642.30, -1.50
Silver: 30.36, -0.39
Stocks roared out of the gate, despite the worst durable goods orders in more than three years. The 4.2% decline for March was the worst print since January of 2009.
Even such a negative report on a critical indicator could not stop the flurry of computer-driven orders (now a full 83% of the total market) from diving headlong into equities. Apple (AAPL) opened the trading day more than 50 points to the upside (nearly 9%) and held steady through the remainder of the session, finishing with a gain of 49.72 to close at 610, rendering the sharp losses of the past two weeks to the dustbin of history.
When the FOMC announced no change in interest rate policy - keeping the targeted federal funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points - and little change in the wording of their statement (though slightly more hawkish), there was barely a reaction, as computers programmed to buy don't react to announcements of no change to a failed macro-economic policy.
This is truly not your father's stock market. Algorithmic trading has turned what once was the engine of the financial world into a complete farce where humans have little to do or say and fundamentals do not matter. There is rarely a reasoned reaction to any economic news, only an incessant grind higher. In addition to the computer-driven market dynamics, the advent of weekly options trading has turned US markets into a carnival that would give honest casinos a bad name.
Daily swings of enormous percentages are now the norm, as the algos follow each other into buying patterns that do not recognize downside risk. There is no place for the individual investor as the machines have a huge advantage in both timing and speed of execution, which is why stocks trade more or less on the futures, causing massive gaps to either the upside or downside upon market opening, locking out small limit orders. There is no way to play in such a controlled sandbox, as any gains will already be taken by the HFT machines and their controllers before an order can be properly executed.
That is why volume will continue to remain on the light side. Individual investors stand no chance of making profits and have stayed away, despite the outlandish and often ridiculous gains.
Global thermo-nuclear war could break out and the computers would still trade stocks higher. It's like a bad Terminator movie, in which the puny humans are no match for the pre-programmed droids.
Dow 13,090.72, +89.16 (0.69%)
NASDAQ 3,029.63, +68.03 (2.30%)
S&P 500 1,390.69, +18.72 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,070.84, +82.82 (1.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,697,138,250
NYSE Volume 3,981,364,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4223-1395
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-42
WTI crude oil: 104.12, +0.57
Gold: 1,642.30, -1.50
Silver: 30.36, -0.39
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
NASDAQ Slides in (Unfounded) Apple Anticipation Fears; FOMC Meeting Concludes Wednesday
US markets rebounded from Monday's sharp selloff, though the S&P and NASDAQ were weighed down on fears that Apple (AAPL) would not deliver the usual stellar results after AT&T reported a decline in Apple iPhone activations in the first quarter.
The mercurial company founded and made famous by the recently-deceased Steve Jobs had been ramped up to become the most wealthy company on the planet earlier this year, though investors have been ravenously taking profits in recent weeks. Apple shares, which hit an all-time closing high of 636.23 on April 9th, has sold off viciously over the past two weeks, leading up to today's first quarter earnings announcement, after the closing bell.
Shares have fallen more than 15% to today's close at 560.28, the 10th day the stock has traded lower in the last 11.
After the bell, earnings were released, showing that Apple blew away estimates, as usual. Analysts were looking for earnings per share of $10.04 on revenue of $36.8 billion. Apple's first quarter results were $12.30 per share on $39.2 billion in revenue. Shares were up more than 40 points in after-hours trading, putting AAPL back above $600 per share.
Besides the interest in Apple, there were other issues on the minds of investors, primarily the ongoing FOMC meeting which concludes Wednesday afternoon, at which time the Fed governors are expected to keep interest rates where they have been for more than two years, approaching zero, though market analysts and Fed watchers will be poring over the text of the release and dissecting Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's new conference following the policy statement for any hints that may indicate the Fed leaning toward more QE, without which US markets would likely contract in a big way.
Currently in the final weeks of "Operation Twist," which expires in June, investors are hungry for more free money from the Fed and a continuation of the policy of easy money which has supported stocks since the financial collapse of 2008.
They'll all have to wait until 2:15 pm on Wednesday and thereafter for the news conference, though most see a continuation of QE in some form as a distinct possibility, though the Fed has let some time go by after the first two rounds - QE1 and QE2 - before embarking on further easing.
Dow 13,001.56, +74.39 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 2,961.60, -8.85 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,371.97, +5.03 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 7,988.01, +47.28 (0.60%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,691,154,875
NYSE Volume 3,592,090,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2715-1920
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-61
WTI crude oil: 103.55, +0.44
Gold: 1,643.80, +11.20
Silver: 30.75, +0.22
The mercurial company founded and made famous by the recently-deceased Steve Jobs had been ramped up to become the most wealthy company on the planet earlier this year, though investors have been ravenously taking profits in recent weeks. Apple shares, which hit an all-time closing high of 636.23 on April 9th, has sold off viciously over the past two weeks, leading up to today's first quarter earnings announcement, after the closing bell.
Shares have fallen more than 15% to today's close at 560.28, the 10th day the stock has traded lower in the last 11.
After the bell, earnings were released, showing that Apple blew away estimates, as usual. Analysts were looking for earnings per share of $10.04 on revenue of $36.8 billion. Apple's first quarter results were $12.30 per share on $39.2 billion in revenue. Shares were up more than 40 points in after-hours trading, putting AAPL back above $600 per share.
Besides the interest in Apple, there were other issues on the minds of investors, primarily the ongoing FOMC meeting which concludes Wednesday afternoon, at which time the Fed governors are expected to keep interest rates where they have been for more than two years, approaching zero, though market analysts and Fed watchers will be poring over the text of the release and dissecting Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's new conference following the policy statement for any hints that may indicate the Fed leaning toward more QE, without which US markets would likely contract in a big way.
Currently in the final weeks of "Operation Twist," which expires in June, investors are hungry for more free money from the Fed and a continuation of the policy of easy money which has supported stocks since the financial collapse of 2008.
They'll all have to wait until 2:15 pm on Wednesday and thereafter for the news conference, though most see a continuation of QE in some form as a distinct possibility, though the Fed has let some time go by after the first two rounds - QE1 and QE2 - before embarking on further easing.
Dow 13,001.56, +74.39 (0.58%)
NASDAQ 2,961.60, -8.85 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,371.97, +5.03 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 7,988.01, +47.28 (0.60%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,691,154,875
NYSE Volume 3,592,090,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2715-1920
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-61
WTI crude oil: 103.55, +0.44
Gold: 1,643.80, +11.20
Silver: 30.75, +0.22
Monday, April 23, 2012
Storm of Events Leading Markets and Economies Down Financial Abyss
As far as headwinds were concerned, the Spring storm which raged across the Northeast was nothing compared to the global typhoon of financial and economic news on Monday.
On Sunday, the French people went to the polls and pulled more levers for Socialist candidate Francois Hollande than for current conservative president Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round of voting. Sarkozy and Hollande will compete for the presidency in the next round of voting, in two weeks time, but the results are being characterized as investor-unfriendly, not only because Hollande's stance will be less favorable toward the Euro than Sarkozy's, but also because far right candidate Marine Le Pen took third place with 17.9 percent of the vote, signaling that French anger over unemployment and austerity are reaching fever pitch.
Overnight, China's "flash" PMI showed a sixth straight month of contraction at 49.1. Even though the reading was better than expected, the news fueled continued fears of a hard landing for China's economy.
As the week began in Europe, two events sent European stocks into a tailspin. The Central Bank of Spain reported that it was officially in recession, as its GDP shrank for the second straight quarter, down 0.4% for the first quarter of 2012, while in the Netherlands, the government collapsed - Prime Minister Mark Rutte and all cabinet members resigning - after failing to reach agreement on an austerity plan within EU strictures.
As if that wasn't enough for the opening of markets in the US, the scandal that Wal-Mart executives bribed Mexican officials for favorable results on building permits was exploding late Sunday into Monday after the New York Times broke the story on Sunday.
While the fact that a large American corporation would bribe officials in a foreign country to receive favorable treatment - the same is done legally in the US, though here it is called "lobbying" - is nothing new, the idea that Wal-Mart executives chose to cover up the scandalous behavior was a bit of an eye-opener.
However, as everyone in big business knows, payola, bribes, payoffs and other forms of cheating are all just part of the global domination game played every day around the world. It's like saying the recent Secret Service dalliances in Columbia were the first time that kind of activity ever occurred.
So, with enough negative news to shake down even the most ardent perma-bull, futures blazed red prior to the open and stocks fell quickly at the opening bell, reaching the lows of the day right around 11:00 am EDT. Even though stocks recovered in the afternoon, technical damage was done, with all four major indices closing below their 50-day moving averages, with the broadest measures - the NYSE Composite and NASDAQ - suffering the worst of it.
With all that news sloshing about, Wall Streeters were in no mood to hear that the nation's largest entitlement programs - Social Security and Medicare - would be running out of money sooner than expected. The trustees of the plans released their annual statements, saying that the Social Security trust fund would be exhausted in 2035, three years sooner than stated just last year. It added that the trust fund for its disability program, which serves 11 million people, would run out in 2016, just four years from now. Medicare was slated to go bankrupt in 2024, the same estimated date as last year's forecast, though the projections were based on very conservative considerations.
The impact of these projections are based on congress making no changes to any of the programs, though both Republicans and Democrats have proposed various plans to keep the Ponzi-scheme entitlements going. The reaction to this announcement should be a loud hue and cry from the American public, with proponents and detractors on both sides of the issue, but the reality is that any man or woman aged 45 or less should expect absolutely nothing in future years and consider the "deductions" from their weekly or bi-weekly paychecks nothing more than outright theft by decree.
Overall, today's news and events only paint the picture of global economic collapse in darker shades, with the rush toward implosion seeming to accelerate with each passing day.
One has to consider that having only papered over the immense losses from the 2008 crash, the next serious event could have ramifications far more severe than what was encountered just four years ago. Global leaders are at a loss for solutions other than adding more liquidity to problems that are solvency-based. Metaphorically, it's similar to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, hoping that long-term environment problems would somehow be magically whisked away by vastness of the body of water diluting the harmful effects of the toxic spill.
Throwing more money at insolvent institutions - most major banks and the governments of developed and developing nations - won't fix the problems. It will only delay the ultimate solution and make conditions worse for even larger numbers of people.
Meanwhile, in Washington, all the politicians currently care about is getting re-elected, whereas on Wall Street the bankers to the world have proven to be numb to even the most stark global conditions.
Dow 12,926.86, -102.40 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,970.45, -30.00 (1.00%)
S&P 500 1,366.94, -11.59 (0.84%)
NYSE Composite 7,938.82, -86.72 (1.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,736,082,250
NYSE Volume 3,568,057,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1439-4198
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 47-147
WTI crude oil: 103.11, -0.77
Gold: 1,632.60, -10.20
Silver: 30.53, -1.12
On Sunday, the French people went to the polls and pulled more levers for Socialist candidate Francois Hollande than for current conservative president Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round of voting. Sarkozy and Hollande will compete for the presidency in the next round of voting, in two weeks time, but the results are being characterized as investor-unfriendly, not only because Hollande's stance will be less favorable toward the Euro than Sarkozy's, but also because far right candidate Marine Le Pen took third place with 17.9 percent of the vote, signaling that French anger over unemployment and austerity are reaching fever pitch.
Overnight, China's "flash" PMI showed a sixth straight month of contraction at 49.1. Even though the reading was better than expected, the news fueled continued fears of a hard landing for China's economy.
As the week began in Europe, two events sent European stocks into a tailspin. The Central Bank of Spain reported that it was officially in recession, as its GDP shrank for the second straight quarter, down 0.4% for the first quarter of 2012, while in the Netherlands, the government collapsed - Prime Minister Mark Rutte and all cabinet members resigning - after failing to reach agreement on an austerity plan within EU strictures.
As if that wasn't enough for the opening of markets in the US, the scandal that Wal-Mart executives bribed Mexican officials for favorable results on building permits was exploding late Sunday into Monday after the New York Times broke the story on Sunday.
While the fact that a large American corporation would bribe officials in a foreign country to receive favorable treatment - the same is done legally in the US, though here it is called "lobbying" - is nothing new, the idea that Wal-Mart executives chose to cover up the scandalous behavior was a bit of an eye-opener.
However, as everyone in big business knows, payola, bribes, payoffs and other forms of cheating are all just part of the global domination game played every day around the world. It's like saying the recent Secret Service dalliances in Columbia were the first time that kind of activity ever occurred.
So, with enough negative news to shake down even the most ardent perma-bull, futures blazed red prior to the open and stocks fell quickly at the opening bell, reaching the lows of the day right around 11:00 am EDT. Even though stocks recovered in the afternoon, technical damage was done, with all four major indices closing below their 50-day moving averages, with the broadest measures - the NYSE Composite and NASDAQ - suffering the worst of it.
With all that news sloshing about, Wall Streeters were in no mood to hear that the nation's largest entitlement programs - Social Security and Medicare - would be running out of money sooner than expected. The trustees of the plans released their annual statements, saying that the Social Security trust fund would be exhausted in 2035, three years sooner than stated just last year. It added that the trust fund for its disability program, which serves 11 million people, would run out in 2016, just four years from now. Medicare was slated to go bankrupt in 2024, the same estimated date as last year's forecast, though the projections were based on very conservative considerations.
The impact of these projections are based on congress making no changes to any of the programs, though both Republicans and Democrats have proposed various plans to keep the Ponzi-scheme entitlements going. The reaction to this announcement should be a loud hue and cry from the American public, with proponents and detractors on both sides of the issue, but the reality is that any man or woman aged 45 or less should expect absolutely nothing in future years and consider the "deductions" from their weekly or bi-weekly paychecks nothing more than outright theft by decree.
Overall, today's news and events only paint the picture of global economic collapse in darker shades, with the rush toward implosion seeming to accelerate with each passing day.
One has to consider that having only papered over the immense losses from the 2008 crash, the next serious event could have ramifications far more severe than what was encountered just four years ago. Global leaders are at a loss for solutions other than adding more liquidity to problems that are solvency-based. Metaphorically, it's similar to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, hoping that long-term environment problems would somehow be magically whisked away by vastness of the body of water diluting the harmful effects of the toxic spill.
Throwing more money at insolvent institutions - most major banks and the governments of developed and developing nations - won't fix the problems. It will only delay the ultimate solution and make conditions worse for even larger numbers of people.
Meanwhile, in Washington, all the politicians currently care about is getting re-elected, whereas on Wall Street the bankers to the world have proven to be numb to even the most stark global conditions.
Dow 12,926.86, -102.40 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,970.45, -30.00 (1.00%)
S&P 500 1,366.94, -11.59 (0.84%)
NYSE Composite 7,938.82, -86.72 (1.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,736,082,250
NYSE Volume 3,568,057,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1439-4198
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 47-147
WTI crude oil: 103.11, -0.77
Gold: 1,632.60, -10.20
Silver: 30.53, -1.12
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