Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Like Emotions, Stocks Run the Full Gamut

There's good karma and bad karma, and there seems to be no shortage of either on Wall Street lately.

The best advice concerning the essence of bad karma is to quickly depart, a dictum taken to heart by investors with losing positions, of which there are currently some, though not an overwhelming number.

While the averages have done little of late to inspire either the bulls or the bears, individual stocks have been doing cartwheels and flips, like Kraft did today in a singular reprise of the flash crash (though to the upside), or like Hewlett-Packard to the downside.

Through it all, it's an emotional game played over emotionless bits of data and what used to be paper certificates. While it may be profitable to some, only those willing and able to suffer long periods of fallow may eventually come away with significant gains. Stocks, even though many Americans unwittingly own them through 401k or other investment vehicles, are a risky lot, not for the feint of heart.

Today's action was choppy, mostly positive, but moreso in the morning than in the afternoon, when the Dow slipped briefly into negative territory and the S&P, NASDAQ and NYSE Composite hit the lows of the day. As usual, low volume was prevalent, economic data uninspiring and stocks rebounded in the final hour.

It's like waiting for a hammer or second shoe to drop, the endless ticking, the tickling teases, the unending speculation running through the mind. What if? What, then?

The best news to millions of motorists was today's precipitous drop in the price of oil, which was surely bad news for certain speculators.

As in sports, or love, or simple competition, there are winners and there are losers. Unlike Nature, which makes choices based on long-standing natural dictums, the rules of stocks are man-made, and subject to frequent reconsideration, recalculation and remorse.

Nature gives to all, takes from one and gives to another. It's a zero-sum game through the pantheon of ages. Stocks are different. One must buy into risk and losses and gains go to those in the right positions.

Most of us, in our heart of hearts, would probably choose nature over stocks, but we're either too dumb, numb or indoctrinated to make such a wise, but simple choice.

Perhaps in another time, a different place, the crush of humanity would make the wise choice. For now, we have what we have, and it is not very pleasing.

Finally, for those having trouble finding full range of human emotions in these hectic, helter-skelter times, or just suffering an overload of the negative ones, this classic from Nat King Cole:



Dow 13,494.61, +12.25 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 3,135.23, +15.19 (0.49%)
S&P 500 1,450.99, +5.24 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,297.50, +2.39 (0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,683,303,875
NYSE Volume 3,486,346,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2643-2824
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 246-46
WTI crude oil: 88.14, -3.75
Gold: 1,779.80, +4.20
Silver: 34.69, +0.021

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Moody Market Seeks Direction; Farm Notes: Keeping Good Faith

Wandering aimlessly through the session, US indices could not decide to rise or fall on Tuesday, ending the session in split fashion.

Gaining in the morning and finally relenting by midday, stocks hit their lows of the session between 2:00 and 3:00 pm EDT, but gathered momentum into the close, paring losses and, in most cases, turning slightly positive.

The Dow was the only index to suffer a loss, a sharp reversal from Monday, upon which the Industrials held the best percentage gain among the major indices.

Volume was fairly anemic, though that's nothing unusual, and while many are calling the recent moves a "stealth rally" the effects of monetary policy, particularly the Fed's recently-announced purchase of some $80 billion per month in MBS for an unspecified period (AKA QEternity) have been felt, possibly having been already priced into stocks, some of which continue to trade at nose-bleed levels, the past few weeks of have been anything other than a secret and almost certainly not a rally.

Since QEternity was announced as policy on September 13, the major indices have been substantially flat.

Of course, this being October and a presidential election year, all of this could change if the market suddenly finds a catalyst for a move in either direction. On the other hand, the market ostensibly controlled by a small number of "strong hands," listlessness and directionless trading could be continued through the election and beyond. As the brokerage commercials are quick to point out, stocks cary risk.

Farming Note: In the rural outliers where corn and chickens are more important than stocks and bonds, a person's word is generally regarded as oath, at least until it is found to be untrue.

It's not a good idea to make promises and plans with potential partners or acquaintances only to dummy up some feeble excuse whereby to break an agreement. Word spreads quickly in farm country about one's character and eventually, those whose word is found not to be trustworthy, soon find themselves cast away, a pariah of the community.

Besides being the golden rule to "do unto others as you would have them do unto you," not keeping good faith ruins friendships, destroys one's self-confidence and generally puts one at odds with Mother Nature herself, a condition reserved only for the truly wicked and those who would scheme against one's fellow man or woman in pursuit of one's own fortune.

Rain may fall when unwanted, drought may starve crops at other times, but only the fruitlessness of one's own hand can cause one's own demise. The harmed party or parties may seek lawful restitution if one's word is a written contract, though more often the result is that the harmed party finds a better deal with a competitor, and the perpetrator of deceit is brought down by guilt and shame.

Dow 13,482.36, -32.75 (0.24%)
NASDAQ 3,120.04, +6.51 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,445.75, +1.26 (0.09%)
NYSE Compos... 8,295.11, +10.74 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,617,743,250
NYSE Volume 3,275,690,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2859-2592
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 247-44
WTI crude oil: 91.89, -0.59
Gold: 1,775.60, -7.70
Silver: 34.67, -0.283

Monday, October 1, 2012

Stocks Open 4th Quarter with Squeamish Gains; Are Chestnuts Better as Investments?

First day of the quarter, so, considering all the rampant money-printing, stock had better show gains on the first day of the quarter, though, at the end of the day, the gains were marginal, except for the safety play on the Dow, which was the leading index by percentage.

Consider chestnuts. They never go up, but always fall from trees, encased in prickly husks to protect the fruits from predators, uninvited guests, birds and insects.

In our neck of the woods, chestnuts are ripe and ready for eating, falling from the trees like free gold from the sky. Makes one almost believe there's a God, or gods, watching over the planet.

Think about fruit and nut trees as opposed to stocks and bonds. They require little effort and return an annual dividend, which, unlike paper assets, can be eaten if need be. And, with age, the returns multiply.

Dow 13,515.11, +77.98(0.58%)
NASDAQ 3,113.53, +2.70 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,444.49, +3.82(0.27%)
NYSE Composite 8,284.36, +33.36(0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,761,352,630
NYSE Volume 3,478,999,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3280-2246
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 346-41
WTI crude oil: 92.48, +0.29
Gold: 1,783.30, +9.40
Silver: 34.95, +0.38

Friday, September 28, 2012

Bad Data, No Problem! Changes and Explanations to Money Daily

In the bizarro-world equity market that prevails post-crash 2008, there's absolutely nothing better than a downward revision to GDP and a horrifying slump in durable orders to spark a one-off rally, and that's exactly what happened on Thursday, when the government (that sage group of geeks working on dilapidated, outdated computers, deciphering information through models long ago discredited and obsolete) decided (one assumes they don't actually crunch numbers, preferring to just "eyeball" the data) that GDP grew not at 1.7% in the second quarter, but actually at 1.3%.

Along with that dreadful assessment of the US economy came another report, this from another government geek gaggle (Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce), showing that durable orders for August fell 13.2% after registering a gain of 4.1% in July.

Notwithstanding that such reports are already ancient history by the time they reach the markets, such a decline - attributed mainly to Boeing, which saw orders fall from over 100 aircraft to one - would have sent markets into a dizzying tailspin in normal times. Being that these times are anything but normal, the insiders rigging the markets for maximum stupidity and ignorance deemed that a small rally was in order, damn the statistics and those annoying government numerological escapades into reality.

Obvious to anyone still in possession of sufficient grey matter between the ears t perform rudimentary cognitive analysis, this market is currently priced for boom times, not sad times, bad times or even moderately glad times, but poised to break out to new all-time highs in short order, presumably before the selection (Does anyone still believe that touch-screen voting computers with no paper trail actually record one's vote accurately?) of our new president, or, in the case that the current spendthrift-in-chief is chosen again, the same president (it's neater that way).

Well, sometimes markets are wrong. Not often, but in the case of blatant manipulation, dismissive of data and control by a select few, they can be way off, as, one might suspect, they are at the current time. How this disconnect with what suffices as reality on Main Street is rectified by Wall Street is for prognosticators and stuffy, beef-fed analysts. It is our contention that they are wrong, and will remain wrong until the Federal Reserve is as bankrupt financially as our congress is morally.

It may take some time, but the Fed's ZIRP and QEternity are certain to promote the progress toward complete insolvency with abundant zeal. Insisting on monetizing almost all government debt and sopping up underwater MBS at par when the true price (ah, price discovery, what a quaint concept) is something of the order of par-minus-some-large-percentage, the Fed is well along a course of self-destructive behavior that will be difficult, if even possible, to unwind.

Dislocations and distortions in just about all markets run rampant and it's only a matter of time before all hell breaks loose and the disjunction becomes a permanent plague on the global stage. Europe is no better, but they're holding the EU together with string and baling wire until, ostensibly, the US elections have passed. Then, they will be allowed to go into what most people would call a "haywire" phase which will make the protest and violent clashes of police and protesters this week look like a serene picnic by a lake.

It is not without some research and dedication to honest (though admittedly slanted) reportage and analysis that the writer/editor of this blog has come to the conclusion that no market can be trusted these days. It has long been suspected that elaborate schemes and rigging and excessive money-printing have delayed a complete unraveling, but now it is certain. Nothing is to be trusted. Not the words from a politician's lips, nor the babbling of baby-faced analysts suggesting that the S&P will exceed 1600 next year or other such pitiful pronouncements can be believed.

In truth, emerging black markets and underground or alternative economies are more trustworthy and honest, flourishing, as a matter of fact. When one trades an ounce of gold, silver or even weed for another tangible object, perhaps land or food, one can be fairly certain a fair deal has been had by both sides. Handshakes are preferred over contracts and disputes are settled the way our forefathers did, with understanding, tolerance and sometimes, force. Courts are the brunt of jukes, providing neither justice nor equitable decisions. Manned by small-minded, overpaid monarchs in robes, they exist as a facade today, a control fraud of the highest order. The judicial system in America has been broken for a long time. Now, when the general public must abide by an ever-changing and increasingly stifling code of behavior under the hubris of "law" and the elite abide only by what suits them, courts serve only those who submit to them, a number that lowers daily.

It is with this understanding of the mess that America has created for itself and congress and Wall Street perpetuate, that this writer has sought refuge in alternatives, especially in nature and farming. The differences are stark: when one looks for growth in equities, the patterns are iffy and distorted; when one grows a plant from seed, the bounty is straight and true. Stocks are high risk; botany is natural and risk is measured by the abundance or lack of sunlight, nutrients in the soil and avoidance of pestilence.

That's why some regular readers of this blog may have noticed a deviation from schedule over the past months, sometimes postings coming in very late (like this one) or not at all. It is because the author has been busy testing, cultivating and planning. Happily, it has all come together recently.

The transition from following crooked markets to reporting more and more on how Americans actually survive and prosper on their own will continue apace. Since the title of this blog is "Money Daily" an exploration of how one can be assured of one's daily "bread" - without "assistance" from brokers or online trading platforms and analytics - it seems appropriate to transition from reportage of the "official" economy to the real economy, the one that avoids taxation and interference as our forefathers would advise, the one that CNBC cannot and thus, does not, acknowledge. the one that forms the backbone of society and commerce.

You want "Money, Daily?" Buy a few chickens and sell the eggs. It's a start.

As of this writing, futures are tanking. Could the trend of stocks being up every Friday encounter a glitch, a crack in the fraud facade?

More on Monday.

Dow 13,485.97, +72.46(0.54%)
NASDAQ 3,136.60, +42.90(1.37%)
S&P 500 1,447.15, +13.83(0.96%)
NYSE Composite 8,303.74, 82.44 (1.06%)
ASDAQ Volume 1,473,257,750
NYSE Volume 2,766,946,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4033-1408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 221-28

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Another Leg down for Stocks; BTFD or Correction Coming?

As a fllow-up to Tuesday's dip into the red, stocks could not forge into positive territory on Wednesday, as the NASDAQ suffered its first three-day losing streak since August 2nd, and the other major averages fell in unison.

Losses were not deep, but steady throughout the afternoon session, closing near the lows. Topping concerns was renewed tension in Europe where protests in Spain overnight and in Greece during the day turned violent.

In Madrid, youths turned out in large numbers to protest parliament's ongoing forays into austerity and to voice anger of the 50% unemployment rate plaguing Spanish youth. Police beat protesters with batons and scores of arrests occurred.

Greece's protests were union organized, as many as 200,000 people from the largest public and private unions marched through the capitol. The demonstration was largely peaceful until anarchists began throwing molotov cocktails at police and media stations. Police responded with tear gas and pepper spray.

By comparison, markets were less jittery in the US as compared to Europe, where Spanish stocks slid by more than three percent and the majority of developed nations' bourses suffered losses of between 1.5 and 2.5 percent.

Commodities were also hit, with gold down sharply and oil closing below $90 per barrel for the first time in more than two months. Silver, which slipped nearly one percent in early trading, rebounded to finish the day close to unchanged.

Losses in risk assets prompted questioning over whether the Fed's new QEternity policy would be effective in boosting or maintaining asset prices in the near term or whether the global economies might be sinking further into a condition of malaise and ill-investment. Some analysts saw the pull-back as technical in nature; others thought a correction was overdue and about to commence.

That left traders in a quandary over where to move next: either out of stocks and back into bonds, or, to stay invested in equities.

Sadly, most people being sheeple, risk assets such as stocks are likely to remain in favor until a more robust, sustained devaluation takes place. Such a scenario could very well play out within the next two weeks. The third quarter is quickly drawing to a close, though the overall strength or weakness of the US economy cannot be measured accurately by the stock market.

Anecdotally, new home sales failed to meet expectations, another cause for concern on Wall street.

Hey, it's only money.

Dow 13,413.51, -44.04 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,093.70, -24.03 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,433.32, -8.27 (0.57%)
NYSE Composite 8,221.75, -53.03 (0.64%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,725,565,750
NYSE Volume 3,535,526,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2145-3341
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 136-48
WTI crude oil: 89.98, -1.39
Gold: 1,753.60, -12.80
Silver: 33.94, -0.01