Today's decline had no end-of-day rally from which to save itself. Stocks were down from open to close, and hard, owing mostly to a continuing spate of earnings disappointments and negative guidance outlooks.
Today's main culprits were a trio of Dow components, DuPont (DD), 3M (MMM) and United Technologies (UTX), though DuPont was clearly the worst of the bunch, recording a third quarter profit of just one cent per share, far below analyst estimates of 46 cents per share.
That report, early in the morning, hours before the market opened, sent futures crashing, so that the Dow opened with a triple digit loss in the first minutes of trading. Stocks could not recover, as it is quickly becoming clear that corporate earnings and revenues are lacking - 60% of companies reporting thus far have missed revenue estimates, many of which have been radically lowered. Meanwhile, Europe's woes continue to weight on markets globally, as the bourses across the continent showed heavy losses again.
The race for president also added to investor dismay, the predominant thinking that President Obama clearly outclassed challenger Mitt Romney in Monday night's final debate, focused on foreign policy, an obvious weak spot for the Republican. According to the best guesses on investor sentiment concerning the election, an Obama victory would be bad for stocks, because Obama favors more regulation and higher taxes for high wage earners, while Romney would likely favor policies which generally leave the status quo alone, allowing the abuses of the rich to continue and the wealth gap to widen.
All politics aside, it is actually fundamentals - for a welcome change - that are driving the most recent declines. Companies are reporting an assortment of earnings misses and sour outlooks for the remainder of 2012 and 2013, based almost entirely on current conditions, which have consumers strapped, governments broke and debt levels for all, unsustainable.
Where stocks will go from here is unknown, though all of the major indices have broken below their 50-day moving averages, generally a sign of more bad days to come.
Additionally, the advance-decline line has deteriorated badly over the past week, as has new highs-new lows, finally capitulating, with new 52-week lows outpacing new highs, 129-53
Dow components reporting on Wednesday include AT&T (T) and Boeing (BA), just a pair in a slew of over 400 companies that will be reporting throughout the day. Both of the Dow components report prior to the market open.
The silver lining in the recent declines is the slump in oil and gas prices. Motorists are already seeing 12-15 cent reductions in the price of a gallon of regular gas, with more easing to come, as crude oil is in the midst of a severe mean reversion, which could bring the cost of a gallon of gas to below $3.00 in some areas.
A reduction in the price of gas could be just what the market needs in time for the holidays, critically important to markets and, well, kids.
Dow 13,102.53, -243.36 (1.82%)
NASDAQ 2,990.46, -26.50 (0.88%)
S&P 500 1,413.11, -20.71 (1.44%)
NYSE Composite 8,197.14, -132.05 (1.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,780,896,750
NYSE Volume 3,233,623,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1709-3814
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 53-129
WTI crude oil: 86.67, -1.98
Gold: 1,709.40, -16.90
Silver: 31.79, -0.459
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Monday, October 22, 2012
Stocks Erase Losses in Final Hour, Again
Chartists, throw away all your tools and theories. Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100 points below its 200-day moving average, spent almost the entire day in negative territory - as did the S&P - yet both averages finished positive, wiping out the day's losses in the final hour of trading on absolutely no news, no rumors, nothing. The only thing that kept the NASDAQ afloat was Apple (APPL).
We've entered new territory, new levels of fraud and collusion and the politicization of markets.
It is an absolute sham. Casual and seasoned investors alike should have pulled all money out of these monkey markets long ago, but the repeated "savior" late day rallies are nothing but pure manipulation by insiders.
Corporate profits have been routinely weak this quarter, yet the major indices refuse to reflect reality in their prices. All price discovery mechanisms have been shattered by the continuous manipulation of markets since the crash of 2008.
Anyone wishing to hold the nearly-worthless pieces of paper (actually, now just electrons in some brokerage account) is welcome to them. The rest of us will do just fine with land, gold, silver and eventually, lead.
These markets deserve to roll over, correct, and eventually will, but that will only happen when the people behind the screens, pulling the strings, find such a move advantageous to their wishes.
Dow 13,345.89, +2.38 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,016.96, +11.34 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,433.81, +0.62 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,329.24, +5.09 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,636,307,625
NYSE Volume 3,189,014,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2668-2785
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 84-82
WTI crude oil: 88.73, -1.32
Gold: 1,726.30, +2.30
Silver: 32.25, +0.155
We've entered new territory, new levels of fraud and collusion and the politicization of markets.
It is an absolute sham. Casual and seasoned investors alike should have pulled all money out of these monkey markets long ago, but the repeated "savior" late day rallies are nothing but pure manipulation by insiders.
Corporate profits have been routinely weak this quarter, yet the major indices refuse to reflect reality in their prices. All price discovery mechanisms have been shattered by the continuous manipulation of markets since the crash of 2008.
Anyone wishing to hold the nearly-worthless pieces of paper (actually, now just electrons in some brokerage account) is welcome to them. The rest of us will do just fine with land, gold, silver and eventually, lead.
These markets deserve to roll over, correct, and eventually will, but that will only happen when the people behind the screens, pulling the strings, find such a move advantageous to their wishes.
Dow 13,345.89, +2.38 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 3,016.96, +11.34 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,433.81, +0.62 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 8,329.24, +5.09 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,636,307,625
NYSE Volume 3,189,014,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2668-2785
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 84-82
WTI crude oil: 88.73, -1.32
Gold: 1,726.30, +2.30
Silver: 32.25, +0.155
Friday, October 19, 2012
Reality Catching Up to Wall Street on Earnings Misses, Fears
Around June, this author told a particularly self-absorbed, furtive individual that there would be a market "event" shortly before the presidential election, designed to offer the impression that the economy, under president Obama, was failing in multitudinous ways, designed to usher in Mitt Romney as the next occupant of the White House.
Until today, that prediction seemed somewhat unreasonable, as stocks have risen sharply during the summer months, but, as third quarter earnings - in addition to various warnings from the likes of the IMF and World Bank - are proving, the US and global economies are far from what anyone would consider healthy.
Today's sharp sell-off was the product of many misses and warnings by huge multi-national companies that either missed earnings and/or revenue estimates or issued warnings for the months ahead.
Among those companies that fell short of Wall Street's lowered estimates after Thursday's close and prior to Friday's open were McDonald's (MCD), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), high-flying Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), and General Electric (GE). The misses came behind similar poor showings from Intel (hit a 52-week low today) and IBM, earlier in the week and proved quite a few sell-side analysts correct in predicting that this quarter would be very rough from an earnings perspective.
Truth be told, even those companies beating earnings estimates are not beating by much, with some exceptions, and are generally hitting targets that are lower than the previous years numbers, which, as the market is a continuous-discounting mechanism, means stocks are going in reverse, with earnings falling, not growing.
That alone should explain today's deep, across-the-board, declines, but also brings into question the entire philosophy behind central bank easing and money printing on a global scale. Sure enough, easy money has propped up banks and companies and a multitude of stocks and indices, but the end result of funny fiat money always reverts to a point at which currencies become worthless and derivative instruments, such as stocks, and, further out, bonds, lose value and we could be nearing the conclusion of the failed stimulative experiment that's fixed nothing since the crash of 2008.
Speaking of crashes, today's drop pales by comparison to what occurred 25 years ago to the day, the well-known stock market crash of 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 23%. It was a seminal market event that will probably (hopefully) never be repeated, as there are supposedly more safeguards and triggers - to say nothing of the PPT - to prevent such a disastrous one-day event.
That is not to say that markets, stocks and indices cannot fall hard over periods of time, though it is far too soon to call today's action the beginning of such a a downward spiral. However, with tech stocks and industrials feeling the heat from investors in an earnings season that has been short on enthusiasm and long on fear, the coming weeks, especially with the November elections as a backdrop, could produce some calamities such as have already been seen in individual stocks, many of which were grossly overvalued and highly speculative, Chipolte and Apple come immediately to mind.
Checking the charts, it's useful to point out that the Dow and S&P broke through their 50-day moving averages and closed just about right on them, a position last seen a week ago, before Monday and Tuesday's "savior" rallies pushed equities back to something of a triple top, which has now broken down in a dramatic reversal. Today's declines on the two indices were the worst since mid-June. Shortly thereafter, both indices progressed above their 50-day MA, but have now returned to the roost, setting up a very unsettling weekend and a potential breakdown on Monday or further on during the week.
As for the NASDAQ, today's worst percentage loser, that index has been screaming red for a month, having busted through its 50-day MA eight sessions ago. Any further deterioration in the beloved NAZ could trigger a serious correction, as it is already down 7% in the past month.
Looking ahead to next week, earnings reports are due out on some big names, such as Cattepillar (CAT), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Yahoo (YHOO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) on Monday; 3M (MMM), Coach (COH), Facebook (FB) and United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday; and, on Wednesday, Boeing (BA), Eli Lilly (LLY), General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY).
Those mentioned above are but a smattering of companies reporting, in what will be the busiest week of earnings season. CNBC and Bloomberg will be looking for rays of hope, while investors may have a more wary eye toward more companies missing on earnings and revenue.
One economic data point worth noting was existing home sales for September, falling 1.7% to an annual run rate of 4.75 million, well below most estimates.
Until then, the long weekend waiting game, and, on Monday night, the final presidential debate, followed on Wednesday another FOMC rate policy decision, which will probably be nothing more than a formality.
Naturally, there will be the usual can-kicking and posturing from Europe, which still cannot come up with plans for either Greece or Spain, which may or may not be part of the plan to hold off the bad news until after our elections. One can hardly wait.
That is all... for now.
Dow 13,343.51, -205.43 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 3,005.62, -67.25 (2.19%)
S&P 500 1,433.19, -24.15 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite 8,324.14, -118.68 (1.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,194,602,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,851,036,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1168-4339
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 166-117
WTI crude oil: 90.05, -2.05
Gold: 1,724.00, -20.70
Silver: 32.10, -0.771
Until today, that prediction seemed somewhat unreasonable, as stocks have risen sharply during the summer months, but, as third quarter earnings - in addition to various warnings from the likes of the IMF and World Bank - are proving, the US and global economies are far from what anyone would consider healthy.
Today's sharp sell-off was the product of many misses and warnings by huge multi-national companies that either missed earnings and/or revenue estimates or issued warnings for the months ahead.
Among those companies that fell short of Wall Street's lowered estimates after Thursday's close and prior to Friday's open were McDonald's (MCD), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), high-flying Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), and General Electric (GE). The misses came behind similar poor showings from Intel (hit a 52-week low today) and IBM, earlier in the week and proved quite a few sell-side analysts correct in predicting that this quarter would be very rough from an earnings perspective.
Truth be told, even those companies beating earnings estimates are not beating by much, with some exceptions, and are generally hitting targets that are lower than the previous years numbers, which, as the market is a continuous-discounting mechanism, means stocks are going in reverse, with earnings falling, not growing.
That alone should explain today's deep, across-the-board, declines, but also brings into question the entire philosophy behind central bank easing and money printing on a global scale. Sure enough, easy money has propped up banks and companies and a multitude of stocks and indices, but the end result of funny fiat money always reverts to a point at which currencies become worthless and derivative instruments, such as stocks, and, further out, bonds, lose value and we could be nearing the conclusion of the failed stimulative experiment that's fixed nothing since the crash of 2008.
Speaking of crashes, today's drop pales by comparison to what occurred 25 years ago to the day, the well-known stock market crash of 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 23%. It was a seminal market event that will probably (hopefully) never be repeated, as there are supposedly more safeguards and triggers - to say nothing of the PPT - to prevent such a disastrous one-day event.
That is not to say that markets, stocks and indices cannot fall hard over periods of time, though it is far too soon to call today's action the beginning of such a a downward spiral. However, with tech stocks and industrials feeling the heat from investors in an earnings season that has been short on enthusiasm and long on fear, the coming weeks, especially with the November elections as a backdrop, could produce some calamities such as have already been seen in individual stocks, many of which were grossly overvalued and highly speculative, Chipolte and Apple come immediately to mind.
Checking the charts, it's useful to point out that the Dow and S&P broke through their 50-day moving averages and closed just about right on them, a position last seen a week ago, before Monday and Tuesday's "savior" rallies pushed equities back to something of a triple top, which has now broken down in a dramatic reversal. Today's declines on the two indices were the worst since mid-June. Shortly thereafter, both indices progressed above their 50-day MA, but have now returned to the roost, setting up a very unsettling weekend and a potential breakdown on Monday or further on during the week.
As for the NASDAQ, today's worst percentage loser, that index has been screaming red for a month, having busted through its 50-day MA eight sessions ago. Any further deterioration in the beloved NAZ could trigger a serious correction, as it is already down 7% in the past month.
Looking ahead to next week, earnings reports are due out on some big names, such as Cattepillar (CAT), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Yahoo (YHOO) and Texas Instruments (TXN) on Monday; 3M (MMM), Coach (COH), Facebook (FB) and United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday; and, on Wednesday, Boeing (BA), Eli Lilly (LLY), General Dynamics (GD), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY).
Those mentioned above are but a smattering of companies reporting, in what will be the busiest week of earnings season. CNBC and Bloomberg will be looking for rays of hope, while investors may have a more wary eye toward more companies missing on earnings and revenue.
One economic data point worth noting was existing home sales for September, falling 1.7% to an annual run rate of 4.75 million, well below most estimates.
Until then, the long weekend waiting game, and, on Monday night, the final presidential debate, followed on Wednesday another FOMC rate policy decision, which will probably be nothing more than a formality.
Naturally, there will be the usual can-kicking and posturing from Europe, which still cannot come up with plans for either Greece or Spain, which may or may not be part of the plan to hold off the bad news until after our elections. One can hardly wait.
That is all... for now.
Dow 13,343.51, -205.43 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 3,005.62, -67.25 (2.19%)
S&P 500 1,433.19, -24.15 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite 8,324.14, -118.68 (1.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,194,602,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,851,036,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1168-4339
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 166-117
WTI crude oil: 90.05, -2.05
Gold: 1,724.00, -20.70
Silver: 32.10, -0.771
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Google's Goof, BLS Correction
Mistakes happen, but, when it comes to stocks and data, mistakes are magnified by gains or losses on balance sheets or portfolios.
Today's comedy of errors was highlighted before the opening bell by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and around midday, by Google, with an assist from R.R. Donnelley.
When the BLS released the most recent initial unemployment claims, they were, in effect, correcting an error made last week, when one state did not accurately report claims. The agency never did tell the public which state was under-reported, but the figure of 339,000 was well below the estimates.
On Thursday, the correction showed initial claims at a more reasonable level of 388,000, and the prior week revised to 342,000. OK, so far.
Around 12:30 pm EDT, Google's (GOOG) third quarter results magically appeared online, although the numbers weren't supposed to be released to the public until around 4:15 pm EDT, after the markets closed. Ooops! The stock dropped 68 points in a manner of minutes, blame was heaped upon publisher R.R. Donnelley, which quickly issued a mea culpa and Google stock was halted until 3:20 pm EDT.
Upon re-opening, Google got a bit of a rise, but the damage had been done. Like it or not, the world's number one search engine reported a clean miss on both earnings and revenue, reflecting a general slowdown in the global economy and, quite possibly, a bit of market share being taken by rival Bing, owned by Microsoft.
Once markets recovered from the midday turmoil, it was back to business as usual, which, these days prior to the general election of November 6, seems to be drifting about the unchanged line. Excepting the NASDAQ, which was impacted by Google's 60-point (8%) decline at the close, the major indices finished relatively flat.
Dow 13,548.94, -8.06 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 3,072.87, -31.25 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,457.34, -3.57 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,442.91, -3.61 (0.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,009,088,250
NYSE Volume 3,833,238,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2276-3211
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 308-44
WTI crude oil: 92.10, -0.02
Gold: 1,744.70, -8.30
Silver: 32.87, -0.364
Today's comedy of errors was highlighted before the opening bell by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and around midday, by Google, with an assist from R.R. Donnelley.
When the BLS released the most recent initial unemployment claims, they were, in effect, correcting an error made last week, when one state did not accurately report claims. The agency never did tell the public which state was under-reported, but the figure of 339,000 was well below the estimates.
On Thursday, the correction showed initial claims at a more reasonable level of 388,000, and the prior week revised to 342,000. OK, so far.
Around 12:30 pm EDT, Google's (GOOG) third quarter results magically appeared online, although the numbers weren't supposed to be released to the public until around 4:15 pm EDT, after the markets closed. Ooops! The stock dropped 68 points in a manner of minutes, blame was heaped upon publisher R.R. Donnelley, which quickly issued a mea culpa and Google stock was halted until 3:20 pm EDT.
Upon re-opening, Google got a bit of a rise, but the damage had been done. Like it or not, the world's number one search engine reported a clean miss on both earnings and revenue, reflecting a general slowdown in the global economy and, quite possibly, a bit of market share being taken by rival Bing, owned by Microsoft.
Once markets recovered from the midday turmoil, it was back to business as usual, which, these days prior to the general election of November 6, seems to be drifting about the unchanged line. Excepting the NASDAQ, which was impacted by Google's 60-point (8%) decline at the close, the major indices finished relatively flat.
Dow 13,548.94, -8.06 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 3,072.87, -31.25 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,457.34, -3.57 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,442.91, -3.61 (0.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,009,088,250
NYSE Volume 3,833,238,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2276-3211
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 308-44
WTI crude oil: 92.10, -0.02
Gold: 1,744.70, -8.30
Silver: 32.87, -0.364
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Stocks Hug Flat Line in Earnings Misses, Warnings
Well, Obama won the debate Tuesday night. Anyone who doesn't believe that wasn't paying attention or is seminally biased toward Republicans, One-Percenters, Mormons or all three.
Thus, in addition to a revenue miss from IBM and some warnings from Intel - both Dow components - the wicked mid-earnings-season rally was cut short on Wednesday, though the S&P and NYSE Composite were the percentage winners on the day.
It could be some rotation out of blue chips into, yep, more speculative stocks, which would make sense considering the Fed will continue to pump money in the general direction of Wall Street until its had enough, whatever that level may be.
To take the markets down, there has to be some kind of serious issues, at least something more serious than what financiers everywhere continue to deny: the great indebtedness of sovereign nations and central bank profligacy, but, with options expiry on Friday, this rally seems to have run out of steam rather abruptly, though one could hardly guess that from the new highs on the NYSE (245).
Queueing Europe in 3...2...1...
Dow 13,557.00, +5.22 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,104.12, +2.95 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,460.91, +5.99 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,446.52, +60.05 (0.72%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,777,785,875
NYSE Volume 3,654,417,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3558-1876
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 350-45
WTI crude oil: 92.12, +0.03
Gold: 1,753.00, +6.70
Silver: 33.23, +0.273
Thus, in addition to a revenue miss from IBM and some warnings from Intel - both Dow components - the wicked mid-earnings-season rally was cut short on Wednesday, though the S&P and NYSE Composite were the percentage winners on the day.
It could be some rotation out of blue chips into, yep, more speculative stocks, which would make sense considering the Fed will continue to pump money in the general direction of Wall Street until its had enough, whatever that level may be.
To take the markets down, there has to be some kind of serious issues, at least something more serious than what financiers everywhere continue to deny: the great indebtedness of sovereign nations and central bank profligacy, but, with options expiry on Friday, this rally seems to have run out of steam rather abruptly, though one could hardly guess that from the new highs on the NYSE (245).
Queueing Europe in 3...2...1...
Dow 13,557.00, +5.22 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 3,104.12, +2.95 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,460.91, +5.99 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,446.52, +60.05 (0.72%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,777,785,875
NYSE Volume 3,654,417,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3558-1876
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 350-45
WTI crude oil: 92.12, +0.03
Gold: 1,753.00, +6.70
Silver: 33.23, +0.273
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