Tug-of-War Continues on Wall Street as Stock Stay Flat

Is this the new, post-election normal, or, is there just so much uncertainty in the markets that half the crowd is buying while the other half is selling?

One thing is for certain: stocks have gone nowhere - eventually settling roughly where they started - for the second session in a row. This kind of directionless pattern leaves everybody shaking their collective heads, and, on a day like today - in which bond markets were closed in observance of Veteran's Day - it's assumed that nobody made much money, including the brokerages, because volume was so low.

Currently, there is a dearth of news and the markets seem to be waiting for some kind of resolutions in Washington over the issue of the "fiscal cliff," but if Wall Street waits until the politicians do a deal, it could be a long wait indeed.

With no catalyst to the upside and stocks sitting pretty much under resistance (the Dow and NASDAQ under their 200-day moving averages, S&P sitting right on its), there's a good probability that another leg downward could be forced by some outside event - a black swan, so to speak - though nobody has any idea where or what such an event would look like.

What is a little bit odd about the trading over the past two days is that it's so close to options expiry on Friday. One would normally be expecting a ramp-up, and, that could come on Tuesday or Wednesday, regardless of what anyone thinks, hopes or believes. Wall Street is still run on the dual emotions of greed and fear, and if there's no fear (the vix was well down today), greed will overtake it and move stoks higher. Traders have to trade, and they'd rather be advising clients to get in now, off the recent move lower, than be selling on their own or their clients' behalves.

The odd trading pattern that was evident on all the major exchanges saw the averages up for the first half hour, slide slowly to the lows of the day just after 11:00 am, bottom, and then race to highs of the day in a straight line between 12:15 and 1:15 pm.

That was all she wrote, however, as stocks took a stair-step pattern back to the break even line, making the day look like a day-trader's nightmare, which it may well have been.

There was virtually nothing notable to report in either Europe or the US, though Japan's economy shrank by 3.5% in the third quarter, further evidence of the global slowdown. On the other side of the ledger, China announced strong exports, but their data has been proven time and again to be often more fiction than fact.

China may well have increased exports recently, but to whom, and why? Global demand has been flat to declining, so maybe China has rediscovered McDonald's secret sauce to fuel its success.

None of that mattered a whit in the US or Europe, which was also lackluster.

Tomorrow may be different, but, it may be more of the same. That's just the environment we have.

A couple of indications may be worthwhile in the advance-decline line, which was marginally negative, and the fat that new lows outpaced new highs for the fourth day in a row, something of a trend developing, maybe.

Dow 12,815.16, -0.23 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 2,904.26, -0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,380.00, +0.15(0.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,059.68, +6.11(0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,351,375,130
NYSE Volume 2,503,732,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2343-2901
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 89-174
WTI crude oil: 85.57, -0.50
Gold: 1,727.70, -3.20
Silver: 32.38, -0.147

Wall Street Peers Over Fiscal Cliff, Likes the View, Maybe

Only in the Wall Street casino can such madness prevail.

When the S&P 500 index closes almost exactly on its 200-day moving average on a day in which it was down, then up sharply, then down, then up again and finally closing almost where it started, one has a sense of the level of manipulation designed to produce the maximum level of uncertainty.

It's working.

The day started with stocks down sharply, but slowly advancing in anticipation of Rep. John Boehner's brief news conference shortly after 11:00 am ET, during which it sold off slightly before rising - after his very abrupt departure - to what would turn out to be the highs of the day, up 78 points on the Dow, just before President Obama made prepared remarks at 1:07 pm. During and just after the president's appearance, the Dow lost all of its gains and fell briefly into negative territory, a move of 103 points in just under an hour.

Stocks spent the rest of the afternoon folling along the line of unchange, with a couple of sharp rises just to keep things interesting.

Naturally, the final hour turned into a circus microcosm of the day, with the Dow up, down, up, down and eventually closing with a gain of four points.

So much for resolution.

The dueling parties in Washington preened and postured for the cameras and microphones while the wise guys in New York pushed buy and sell buttons with just enough pressure to keep markets in suspended animation for the full session, miraculously ending with gains of less than 10 points on all exchanges (four or less excluding the NASDAQ).

It was politico-socio-psycho-econo theater at its best.

There's surely more to come from the recently-re-anointed crowd in Washington and the usual suspects in New York as we end our way through the final seven weeks of 2012.

While the news and financial networks scramble and flail about trying to explain the undesirable effects of falling over the "fiscal cliff," though Wall Streeters seem perfectly at ease tip-toeing along the precipice. One gets the distinct feeling that the deal has already been struck and the rest is just for show.

How to trade it? Well, one can take the virtuous route and ignore it all, or play along with the pros and prepare to be beaten by their wickedly swift HFT algos which scan and skim every trade.

Bottom line is that there is no actual bottom line, so long as Ben Bernanke sits quietly in the background, his finger poised to punch up another couple hundred billion dollars as needed, along with his counterpart, Mario Draghi, in Europe.

Did somebody mention Europe? That place where equally nothing matters? Yes, they're still out there, kicking their own can further down the road to perdition.

With the elections in the US over and done with, it's back to business as usual, wherein neither the politicians nor the bankers can lose.

For all you poker fans, the market did leave a couple of "tells." Gold and silver notched nice gains again, and, for the third day in a row, new lows slaughtered new highs, 231-76.

That's a pretty fat slice of salami laying out there, Wall Street. Some of us actually notice... and our appetite is good.

Dow 12,815.39, +4.07(0.03%)
NASDAQ 2,904.87, +9.29(0.32%)
S&P 500 1,379.85, +2.34(0.17%)
NYSE Composite 8,053.56, +2.74(0.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,802,865,630
NYSE Volume 3,572,545.750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2707-2778
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 76-231
WTI crude oil: 86.07, +0.98
Gold: 1,730.90, +4.90
Silver: 32.60, +0.359

Stocks Get Whacked Again; Dow Down 100+; Support on Major Indices Breached

Make no doubt about it, there's real fear on Wall Street.

For the second day in a row, stocks spent the day wallowing in negative territory, amid fears of the fiscal cliff - higher taxes, imposed budget cuts, more - the souring condition of the European Union, notably Greece and, yes, Germany, post-election hand wringing, and generally overpriced stocks in a market that is supposed to be buoyed by unlimited bond purchases by the Federal Reserve.

Word to the Street: It's not working.

Stock market participants who were brave enough to bid stocks up at the open (aka, suckers) were immediately punished for thinking that after the worst down day in a year on the Dow, stocks were ready to rebound, as all the major averages got a brief boost at the open but fell back into the red shortly after the first half hour of trading.

Trading volumes were brisk and stocks continued to gyrate lower, finally ending with a rush to finish at the lows of the day right at the closing bell, hardly an encouraging sign for those who believe this recent pull-back was nothing but blues for Mr. Romney's loss in the presidential sweepstakes.

All of the major indices closed below their 200-day moving averages, the first time this has happened since the end of May, beginning of June, when investors were worried that the Fed would not extend its easing measures (they did, of course).

In the current environment, traders are more or less on their own. Many funds have closed their books for the year and are taking on losses as sharp-nosed hedge fund managers skewer the slow-footed and long-term types with shorting and controlled demolitions of individual stocks and groups. High beta stocks, which posted the greatest gains over the past 10 months, are being hammered relentlessly as profit-taking has become more akin to skinning tomatoes, a slippery job at best and a troublesome trade at worst.

There are scant buyers, though the "semi-invisible" hand of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) may actually be keeping stocks from falling directly into the East River or beyond.

Foreign markets have been hard hit as well, with almost all Asian, European and Latin American markets feeling the pinch the past two days.

In Europe, the truly laughable situation that the ECB finds itself in is truly one for he history books, as Greece steps closer to civil war after voting once again for austerity measures and another round of cash from the monetary authorities in Brussels and Germany. Thing are relatively quiet in the other Southern European detor nations, though Spanish bond yields are beginning to rise, frightening everybody from Angela Merkel - who wants more time (sorry, honey, you've had enough) - to Mario Draghi, who has expressed openly that the lone bright spot in the EU - Germany - is beginning to lose its luster.

Thankfully for most traders, tomorrow is Friday, making the end of what will likely go down as one of the worst weeks of the year, with the Dow down more than 400 points thus far, and the issues presented to the market anything but resolved.

It's been said many times that the market hates uncertainty, and that's all they've got in front of them presently. Worse yet, the underlying conditions set by global central bankers are proving more destructive and costly than anyone could possibly have imagined (except for a few select bloggers and out-of-the-mainstream market watchers). The favored positions of bailing out banks, major companies and sovereign nations with increased easing of monetary policy and near-zero interest rates has created an environment with no escape hatch.

The hands of the central bankers are tied, and with them, all appendages of the trading community. If there was ever a time to book profits (what's left of them), it's now, or rather, it was Tuesday. Since the massive ramp job in anticipation of a Romney victory, stocks have been beaten and battered to a point at which the Dow now sports a gain of less than 600 points on the year, roughly a five percent move from the close of 12217.56 on December 30, 2011.

The NASDAQ being the hardest-hit in the recent downtrend, had the most to give up and is still holding onto a gain of nearly 300 points, having begun the year off the close at 2605.15 at the end of last year. Starting the year at 1257, the S&P 500 is still holding onto a 120-point gain, just less than 10% higher on the year, which, in normal times, would be considered excellent, but those gains seem to be eroding faster than the confidence that the Democrats and Republicans in Washington can find an ultimate solution (they can't; they're broke themselves).

New highs have been subsumed by new lows, 91-185, the second straight day in which the lows have registered a win. It, however, this is just the beginning of a correction of seven to fifteen percent, there's further to fall, something many on wall Street don't want to think about until maybe Monday, when all hell may break loose.

There's still one more day to get through this week and all pretense has been removed. There's a general fear about being in the market at all presently and the last man standing is not the preferred position, nor is the act of catching a falling knife, currently the only places left on the market floor.

From a chartists' perspective, the move lower was nearly overdue, but the timing could not have been more predictable after the major indices made new highs in early October, fall back, and failed to achieve those same levels later in the month, at which point began the eventual fall-out. The bull market which began in March of 2009 is now getting a little long in the tooth, at 44 months, and it could be all she wrote as third quarter results were messy to horrifying and Wall Street's dirty little secret - that stocks are not growing their earnings - is beginning to get out.

Tomorrow could see a bit of a snap-back, dead cat bounce, but all indications are that more pain is ahead and that period could extend through the remainder of 2012 and into next year.

There were winners, ominous ones at that: gold and silver.

Dow 12,811.32, -121.41 (0.94%)
NASDAQ 2,895.58, -41.71 (1.42%)
S&P 500 1,377.51, -17.02 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 8,050.83, -87.98 (1.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,876,133,130
NYSE Volume 3,759,670,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1462-4062
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 185-91
WTI crude oil: 85.09, +0.65
Gold: 1,726.00, +12.00
Silver: 32.24, +0.579

Obama Wins; Stock Market Sinks on Tax Hike, Fiscal Cliff Fears, Europe

Tuesday was an early night in terms of presidential politics as President Barack Obama was elected overwhelmingly to a second term, whipping Republican challenger in almost every battleground state and winning the popular vote handily.

With the vote in Florida still being tallied (anybody surprised?), the Sunshine State turned out to be mostly inconsequential as the president swept the key states of Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania (which never really was in play), New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. Romney's sole win in the so-called "swing states" was in North Carolina, a state which Obama took by a narrow 0.3% in 2008.

Once the midwest states of Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio were declared for Obama, the race was over, but it wasn't until after midnight in the East that Mitt Romney gave his concession speech and later, President Obama gave a ripping, rhetorical speech extolling the virtues of freedom of choice, tolerance and working together toward shared goals and the great creation of our founders, the United States of America, individual states bound together by social compact.

In the House and Senate races, the makeup of congress remained largely the same, with Republicans dominating the House and Democrats strengthening their grip on the senate, winning key races in Virginia, Florida, and, especially, Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren, the fiery consumer rights advocate, took the seat away from Republican incumbent Scott Brown, in a major setback for big banks.

Warren, who worked on TARP and other reforms in Washington, especially the implementation of a consumer protection division at the Federal Reserve, will likely end up on the Senate banking Committee, possibly winning the chairmanship.

Another critical Senate race was won in Connecticut by Christopher Murphy, who defeated Linda McMahon, who wrestling millionaire who spent $100 million on her own campaign.

Jon Tester retained his Senate seat from Montana in a close race with Republican challenger Denny Rehberg, keeping the balance of power firmly in their control with 55 seats, along with one independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The Democrats likely gained another ally when former governor, independent Angus King of Maine, won an open Senate seat that had been held by Republican Olympia Snowe. King has not indicated which party he would caucus with, though most believe it will be with Democrats. King won on the simple idea of making filibusters less of an effective measure in killing legislation, believing that excessive filibustering by Senate Republicans had blocked almost all significant legislation over the past four years.

There was little change in the House, as Reublicans retained control with 232 seats to 191 held by Democrats with a number of vacancies.

It wasn't long before other voices began to be heard, especially those on Wall Street who had been counting on a win by Republican Romney. Before the market opened, futures began a steep decline, though the catalyst may have nad more to do with comments by ECB president Mario Draghi and some dismal production figures from Germany, regarded as a stronghold in the recession-plagued continent.

Shortly after Germany's industrial production was reported to have fallen 1.2% in September, Draghi said that the crisis in Europe was beginning to take its toll on the industrial powerhouse that is the German economy.

Heading into the first post-election session, Dow futures were pointing toward a loss of more than 100 points at the open, and the result was worse, with the 132-point gain from Tuesday wiped out in the opening minute.

Stocks continued their descent until bottoming out just before noon, down 369 points, the biggest decline of the year, though some strengthening took all of the indices off their lows as the day progressed.

Still, the losses were dramatic and especially in the banking sector, where ank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and other big bank concerns were off more than five percent. All 10 S&P sectors finished in the red, the S&P could not defend the 1400 level and nearly bounced off its 200-day moving averages, the NASDAQ - aided by Apple's continued decline into bear market territory - broke down below its 200-DMA and the Dow closed below its 200-DMA for the first time since the beginning of June.

In Greece, rioters threw fire bombs at police in anticipation of another vote on austerity measures designed to pave the way for another round of financing from the troika of the IMF, EU and ECB. The vote, scheduled for midnight in Greece (5:00 pm ET), is expected to pass, though the populace has seemingly had enough of policies dictated by outsiders.

For Wall Street, the day presented a perfect storm of disappointment, fears of higher taxes on dividends, tighter regulations of banks, uncertainty over tax and spending policies heading into 2013, and renewed concerns over our trading partners in Europe.

The steep declines may have only been a beginning, however, as no policies have changed, and, actually, the political makeup in Washington remained the same as it had been the day before. The continued gridlock coming from the White House and Capitol Hill may be the most disconcerting factor of all.

Some internal damage was done to markets, with the advance-decline line showing a nearly 5-1 edge for losers and new highs being surpassed by new lows, 94-174.

With none of the important initiatives nearing resolution, there seems to be nowhere for the market to go but down, now that the election is over, earnings season is just about finished and the market must focus on fundamentals and locking in gains for the year. The remainder of 2012 may prove to be quite challenging to investors.

Dow 12,932.73, -312.95 (2.36%)
NASDAQ 2,937.29, -74.64 (2.48%)
S&P 500 1,394.53, -33.86 (2.37%)
NYSE Composite 8,138.80, -173.55 (2.09%)
NASDAQ Volume 4,322,112,500
NYSE Volume 2,059,028,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 961-4613
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 94-174
WTI crude oil: 84.44, -4.27
Gold: 1,714.00, -1.00
Silver: 31.66, -0.373

Romney Rally Fades Into Close; Gold Silver Up Sharply

Wall Street is still largely clinging to the belief that their one-percent incarnation, Mitt Romney, can somehow pull rabbits out of hats or extra votes out of swing states and capture the 2012 presidential election.

Cynicism, in opposition to this view runs high, as Wall Street has proven, time and again, that it doesn't care, nor does it matter, who holds the reigns of power; they will buy them off at any cost, usually one much lower than they're willing to pay.

Based upon the wide-eyed optimism over a Romney presidency = which would fit neatly with a Republican-led House of Representatives - stocks bolted higher at the open, boosted again just prior to the noon hour and faded slightly into the close. The Dow was up 178 points at the day's heights, closing weakly on moderate volume.

All of the major indices showed strong gains, led by the Industrials, which added just more than one percent. Iy was the third point movement of between 130 and 140 points in the last six sessions.

Recently beaten-down commodities also posted impressive gains. Gold raced back above the $1700 mark, oil and silver also made significant headway.

The big prize comes tonight, with polls in Eastern states closing beginning at 7:00 pm. The first big tests will be Virginia and Ohio, with plenty of twists and turns to the political narrative in store as the night wears on.

Dow 13,245.68, +133.24 (1.02%)
NASDAQ 3,011.93, +12.27 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,428.39, +11.13 (0.79%)
NYSE Composite 8,311.67, +71.42 (0.87%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,744,160,250
NYSE Volume 3,261,801,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3724-1748
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 198-61
WTI crude oil: 88.71, +3.06
Gold: 1,715.00, +31.80
Silver: 32.03, +0.906