Over the Cliff We Go, but Where Is the Fear?

America has finally been dumbed down enough so that the ruling elite can run roughshod over the nation unfettered by neither rule of law or unfortunate facts.

About a month ago, (first person singular here, so pay attention) I made a point (don't know whether or not I made the point in any blog posting or not) that my belief was that a deal on the Bush tax cuts' expiration and other "fiscal cliff" issues had already been cut. Today, I still hold to that belief and even more strongly than before.

Take, for instance, the measured pace of both the Washington politicians and the Wal Street traders. The politicians have done nothing, are no closer to a deal than they were a month ago and don't seem to be in a big hurry to resolve these "pressing" issues.

Wall Street, after a hissy fit bout of selling over "their man" Romney losing the election, have recouped most of the decline and keep gradually pushing stocks higher and higher, apparently oblivious to the threat of the entire nation falling (or being pushed) over said fiscal cliff come January 1, 2013.

The simple reason for believing that the politicians won't make a deal before January 1, 2013, are so obvious as to not even be worth mentioning and that is the exploding federal government deficit and ever-expanding national debt, due to surpass its limits within another month or so.

The government needs money. Let me say that again, with emphasis:
THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY!

OK, maybe that was a little harsh on the eyes, but there's no doubting the veracity of that statement. And, since the government needs money, and, since the politicians express this nagging sentiment that they are two parties poles apart on ideology and methodology, when in fact they are one and the same party when it comes to self-survival, the best way to get more money is to raise taxes on everybody and blame each other, which, in the long run, means nobody gets blamed, nobody has to worry about torches, pitchforks and being run out of town on a rail, and everybody gets re-elected, eventually.

For Wall Street, it means more money for corporations, which can and do break every law imaginable in pursuit of profit, and largely get away with it. Or, the traders are just ramping up stocks on the backs of their muppet clients, while quietly cashing out and putting their money into tangible assets like gold, silver, real estate, or stashing it away in the Cayman Islands or some other off-shore tax haven.

Think, for a moment. According to recently released statistics, and demonstrated by this article, in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients (over one million) were added to the economy as jobs (324,000). So, where's the recovery? For everybody who gets a low-wage, no-benefit, glorified part-time job, three people apply for and receive food stamps and become a burden on the working class.

Like so many other concepts and programs in these United States, this is unsustainable, yet the media keeps rminding us that all is well, and that we sould go out and buy the latest iWidget or iGadget for Christmas to keep the economy humming along. Really?

Take a look at the S&P Retail Index (^RLX), which, after a double bottom in late October and early November, has headed south again in the first six days of December.

This, my friends, is the Christmas season, the buying season, the make-or-break season for retailers. If everything is so honkey-dorey, then why is this index rolling over, right at the height of what should be its strongest season.

Maybe the market is just being counter-intuitive, but, more likely, the retailers are being slaughtered. Holiday buying is down, as some luxury retailers have recently expressed, like Tiffany and Nordstrom's, and Kohl's, a mainstream retailer, reported horrifying same-store sales last week. Cannibalization. Zombification. Call it what you will, but, if everybody - not just the rich, but, everybody - is going to pay more in taxes next year, because THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS MONEY, how then does the economy look going forward.

Happy Holidays my sweet, firm buns. We're heading over the fiscal cliff by design and the aftermath of crashing billions of dollars below is not going to be very pretty.

I may be completely wrong, but, believe what you like. By all appearances, the deal has already been struck, the politicians are just play-acting, and the deal is that there is no deal. Welcome to the next fork on the road to serfdom.

Am I the only one seeing this for what it is? Where's the fear of the economy rolling over into a recession in the first half of 2013, which the OMB has already expressed would happen were the Bush tax cuts to expire, unemployment benefits be allowed to expire, the reduced take out of Social Security be allowed to expire, and cuts in defense and other programs (the so-called "sequestration") occur all at once?

The congress is set to recess for the holidays on Friday, December 14, four days from now. There simply isn't time enough to craft a substantive deal before then, since nothing at all has been done.

Obama and the Democrats will blame House leader John Boehner and the Republicans, who will blame Obama and the Democrats, and the American people will be left holding the bag, once again, with less in it than before. Tax the rich, tax the poor, tax everybody in between and blame each other. What a plan! Absolutely brilliant!

Market Update at 4:50 pm ET...

Stuck on stupid is about the only way to describe today's market (non)activity. Narrow range (seriously, the Dow was between up 20 and 30 points for almost the entire session) on low volume with the full range of just 55 points was ugly. Totally dead money.

Dow 13,169.88, +14.75 (0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,986.96, +8.92 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,418.55, +0.48 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 8,322.68, +8.39(0.10%)
NYSE Volume 2,975,303,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,528,722,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3095-2408
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 139-61
WTI crude oil: 85.56, -0.37
Gold: 1,714.40, +8.90
Silver: 33.38, +0.246

Dow Gets Big Bump from BLS Jobs Data

Stocks got a boost from better-than-expected non-farm payroll data from the BLS, though the labor participation rate continued to slide. There were 146,000 net new jobs created in November, so no reason to blame Hurricane Sandy for anything. October's number was revised drastically lower, from 171K to 138K.

There was no movement on the fiscal cliff non-negotiations, which was supposed to be what Wall Street feared, though, as we've seen throughout the past 4+ years, anything pertaining to the economics of ordinary people or what happens on Main Street, simply gets brushed aside by Wall Street.

The NASDAQ was dragged down and the S&P weighted down by the continuing slide in shares of Apple (AAPL), a stock that is just plain broken after huge speculative plays over the past two years.

Whistling past the grave, indeed.

Dow 13,155.13, +81.09 (0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,978.04, -11.23 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,418.07, +4.13 (0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 1.63% +0.05
NYSE Volume 3,086,974,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,612,160,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2797-2656
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 123-50
WTI crude oil: 85.93, -0.33
Gold: 1,705.50, +3.70
Silver: 33.13, +0.017

Bear Trap? Or Can the Markets Move Higher?

For all the sound and fury over the "fiscal cliff" this is a very orderly market, but that's what you get when there's no other asset classes worth owning (supposedly) and everything is neatly controlled and contrived by a select group of insider traders.

Perhaps this is just a well-conceived bear trap, set up perfectly (the Dow is up 522 points since the interim closing bottom on November 15) to ensnare the unsuspecting prey either with the release of tomorrow's non farm payroll figures for November (blame it on Sandy) or the congressional recess on December 14.

Bears can be very cagy. They may be lying patiently in wait. Tomorrow's number should be important, though this market - the levitational beast that it is - may not give a hoot. (OK, too many animal references for one day... good bye)

Dow 13,074.04, +39.55 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 2,989.27, +15.57 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,413.94, +4.66 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 8,280.96, +16.16 (0.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,487,250
NYSE Volume 3,176,728,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2814-2665
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 99-56
WTI crude oil: 86.26, -1.62
Gold: 1,701.80, +8.00
Silver: 33.11, +0.157

Wall Street and Washington's Theater of the Absurd

To say that the market is comical might be a bit of an understatement, as, under the current regime of endless QE, ZIRP, no-loss corporate interests and unlimited cash funding for all manner of speculation the entity that used to be known as the "stock market" is a sad comedy with wickedly tragic undertones.

Amidst the furor over "fiscal cliff" issues, Wall Street has managed to keep a straight face, as have most commentators and analysts, but today's activity was right out of the old PPT handbook.

Despite early morning futures pump-priming, actually solid economic data and no progress in Washington, stocks found themselves slumped into negative territory at 11:00 am ET.

However, this being a market typified by HFT and wing-and-a-prayer whimsical day-trading, that point in time marked low tide for the day.

Without warning and on absolutely no relevant news (we searched and searched and could not find a suitable catalytic argument), the Dow Industrials surged a massive 150 points in the next hour, making a v-bottom u-turn that was dazzling if for only its rapidity.

The news wires were touting the move as inspired by Bank of America, and, to a lesser extent, Citigroup, which today announced layoffs of 11,000, sending that stock up 2.17 (6.33%). It's a counter-intuitive world when slashing jobs causes such a huge run-up, but this is, after all, the bizarre world of Wall Street, where profits supersede humanity. BofA, for its part, surged 56 cents, to 10.46, a new 52-week high. The only caveat for the TBTF banks might be that they are in the midst of another round of stress tests, and, apparently, are set to receive passing grades despite having a multitude of unresolved bad debts residing both on and off their balance sheets.

Finally marking its zenith with a 137-point advance, the Dow meandered along through the afternoon, finally giving up the charade late in the session by cutting its gains nearly in half. The other laughable part was Apple (AAPL) which was hammered once again by profit-takers, taking down the NASDAQ - which remained in the red all session long - with it.

It's fairly common knowledge that over the past four years, rallies led by banks hae a kind of phantom character to them. Since banking's books are so opaque, only the select circle of insiders really know how to value them, and said values may or may not be realistic. Time only will tell.

Belying the rally, the advance-decline line was negative and the margin of new highs over new lows continued to tighten.

Meanwhile, Washington did its part to keep the comical nature of events going strong. Congressional members largely departed the Capitol at noon today, apparently having nothing to do and opting for a long weekend. Yes, a long weekend, just prior to what's planned to be a three-week holiday holiday beginning December 14.

Tis strange – but true; for truth is always strange; stranger than fiction.

-- Lord Byron

Dow 13,034.49, +82.71 (0.64%)
NASDAQ 2,973.70, -22.99 (0.77%)
S&P 500 1,409.28, +2.23 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 8,270.43, +46.56 (0.57%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,747,690,750
NYSE Volume 4,086,650,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2641-2821
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 121-65
WTI crude oil: 87.88, -0.62
Gold: 1,693.80, -2.00
Silver: 32.96, +0.149

Markets Stall as Fiscal Cliff Negotiations Are a Nullity

Talk about tight trading ranges, the major averages barely budged off the flat line today, and, considering the backdrop of the fiscal cliff non-negotiating stances of the warring parties, it's actually quite remarkable.

The NASDAQ was the most volatile of the majors, trading in negative territory the entire session, trading in a narrow band of 22 points. The S&P, top to bottom, moved an entire nine points and change, finishing ever-so-slightly in the red.

By comparison, the Dow's movement was phenomenal, covering an entire 82 points throughout the day. However, after giving up an initial thrust higher of some 53 points, the Dow's trading range from 11:00 am ET until the close was a mere 46 points. Just in case anybody is keeping tack, the Dow crossed over the unchanged line 27 times.

There was no economic data released, but the president did take to the airwaves in his first one-on-one interview since the election, exclusively on Bloomberg (take THAT CNBC!).

Basically reiterating that he would not budge from his position the the Bush tax breaks for the highest two percent earners (making over $250,000 per annum) must be allowed to expire before he and his democratic counterparts would seriously consider any proposal.

That did not inspire any reaction in either direction from the markets. It could be early onset of "cliff fatigue," since the two sides have engaged mostly in verbal sparring and little else. Wall Streeters may be getting a bit worn out, playing the waiting game for the past four weeks.

Without any movement in negotiations, the investment community will look to a crush of economic data releases beginning with the ADP Employment Change index for November, at 8:15 tomorrow, followed in close order by Q3 productivity revision and unit labor costs, factory orders, ISM services and crude oil inventories.

At the least, the ADP figure will give the non-farm payroll junkies a little to chew on until Friday when the BLS makes its monthly estimate of job growth in the nation.

Between now and then, don't look for a quick resolution to the fiscal cliff issues, as both sides appear to take the fight to the very last minute, if not beyond. Most of the politicians are planning on heading home for the holidays on the 14th of December, but, staying in the nation's capitol to iron out an agreement might be preferable to dealing with angry constituents back home, so the chance that congress might delay their holiday by a week is a distinct possibility.

While there are many voices expressing that the politicians will prevent the economy from going "over the cliff" more and more analysts are predicting that neither side sees any gain from negotiating a settlement and appearing weak in the eyes of constituents, especially from the Republican point of view, which is, has been and likely will be, completely intractable.

Things could get interesting at any time, though it appears more and more likely that the politicians will stall, posture and delay, to the ultimate detriment of everyone.

One can hardly blame the president for sticking to his guns on wanting to raise taxes on the rich. It's a no-brainer and long overdue. Besides, he did win re-election largely on the idea that the rich should pay more. How much more is the most cogent question, though the Republicans continue to appear myopic and standing in defense of their campaign contributors, not the people of America.

If the politicians don't come to agreement, blame will fall squarely on the shoulders of the Republican party, primarily the out-of-touch tea partiers in the House.

Dow 12,951.78, -13.82 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,996.69, -5.51 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,407.05, -2.41 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 8,223.87, +0.33 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,746,404,375
NYSE Volume 3,218,542,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2638-2837
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 94-55
WTI crude oil: 88.50, -0.59
Gold: 1,695.80, -25.30
Silver: 32.81, -0.951