Ever get that nagging feeling that something isn't quite right, you don't know what it is, but you're sure something important is broken, and it's going to cause problems?
That seemed to be the sense of things today. This marking the first day of the first full week of trading, and, after that spectacular, fiscal-cliff-solution-induced-rally last Wednesday, stocks have been just spinning their wheels.
Maybe it's the end of the holidays and getting back to reality, or, for those of us up in the North country, the dreary, dank, dark and depressing days of winter (only 73 mare days until Spring!), but there's a problem out there lurking that's bigger than the upcoming debt ceiling fight, the next unemployment report or whether we dip back into a recession.
It's the kind of feeling that pervaded Germany during the rise of Naziism, in which people didn't trust each other any more, everybody was on guard against some unseen, invisible, but just under the surface threat.
To put one's finger on it exactly would be a stroke of luck - or genius - but let's take a stab at it.
The house of cards the US has built up after the fall of the TBTF banks back in 2008 seems to be crumbling, and, like a house of cards, it starts at the top, where those on the bottom or even in the middle, can't see the collapse coming.
After the nonsensical debate and drawn-out rhetoric over the so-called "fiscal cliff," congress delivered a solution that was only half a solution, that being the taxation part. The hard part, cutting spending, is still ahead, and anybody who knows anything about how Washington has worked for the past thirty years knows that the congress and the president aren't willing or able to cut programs in any meaningful way.
So, the political structure at the top of the pyramidical structure called our society isn't working, and that's going to cause problems down below. The bankers, politicians and corporations currently at the top of the food chain don't seem to have adequate answers, only mildly appeasing artical solutions and glad=handing all around while the suppress and repress the rest of society. Eventually, one little slip up, one mistake, one good blow of wind from out of the blue takes the top cards off the structure and down tumbles everything into a massive, wrecked heap.
How long can the nation survive with clowns twirling dishes on stoks and juggling balls in the air at the top of the structure? So far, about four years, but it hasn't been pretty. There's just this feeling that it's all going to get worse.
Maybe if we turned Dow theory on its head, and noticed that the transportation average had moved to a technical, secular bear market back in July and August of 2011, and hasn't recovered to exceed the previous highs, and the Industrials since then have made a concerted, upside move based on nothing but short-covering rallies, asset inflation thanks to continual pumping by the Federal Reserve, that would give us all a clue to where things are going.
Or, maybe the Federal Reserve, the OCC and Fannie Mae all settling up with the banks on the first Monday of the New Year is a what? Coincidence? And nobody is concerned?
Maybe it's the breakdown of the relationship between the A-D line and the new highs vs. new lows. Maybe it's the flu. Maybe it's gold being constantly hammered down, or silver stuck in perpetuity at $30/ounce. And, maybe those are just symptoms.
Something is broken, for sure. Nobody is sure exactly what it is, but it could be everything.
Dow 13,384.29, -50.92 (0.38%)
NASDAQ 3,098.81, -2.85 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,461.89, -4.58 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,636.91, -30.77 (0.35%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,702,506,875
NYSE Volume 3,513,878,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2852-3657
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 286-15
WTI crude oil: 93.19, +0.10
Gold: 1,646.30, -2.60
Silver: 30.08, +0.136
Monday, January 7, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
Jobs Number OK, Stocks Post Mild Gain
It was a pretty nice week for stocks all in all. Good kick-off to the new year, though there are still issues to be resolved. Once the euphoria over the horrid fiscal cliff deal wears off, it will be business as usual, more pimping and pumping of stocks to the sky.
Non-farm payrolls for December came in at a ho-hum 155,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 7.8%, due to a revision from last month, which was originally reported at 7.7%.
That's all. It's Friday. Go spend.
Dow 13,435.21, +43.85 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,101.66, +1.09 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,466.47, +7.10 (0.49%)
NYSE Composite 8,667.68, +59.89 (0.70%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,743,607,375
NYSE Volume 3,662,983,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4529-1933
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 400-8
WTI crude oil: 93.09, +0.17
Gold: 1,648.90, -25.70
Silver: 29.95, -0.774
Non-farm payrolls for December came in at a ho-hum 155,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 7.8%, due to a revision from last month, which was originally reported at 7.7%.
That's all. It's Friday. Go spend.
Dow 13,435.21, +43.85 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,101.66, +1.09 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,466.47, +7.10 (0.49%)
NYSE Composite 8,667.68, +59.89 (0.70%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,743,607,375
NYSE Volume 3,662,983,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4529-1933
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 400-8
WTI crude oil: 93.09, +0.17
Gold: 1,648.90, -25.70
Silver: 29.95, -0.774
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Was That It? New Year's Rally a One-Day Wonder
Actually, the New Year's rally on Wednesday - the first day of trading in 2013 - wasn't even a one-day wonder. One might actually consider it a 30-minute - or even 30-second - wonder, in that most of the advances were right at the open with some follow-on in the first half hour of trading.
Naturally, this is how the market rolls these days. If you're not one of the connected special few that can trade pre-market, in futures or make huge buys via HFT computers, like 99% of individual investors, you're SOL, missing out on most of the biggest moves in the market.
Is there any wonder the individual investor has pulled most, if not all, of their money out of equities? The odds are severely stacked against the little and middle guys, yet another reason to despise the one-percenters who glom up the vast majority of Wall Street profits.
As for today's action, not much was happening. Stocks drifted lower in the morning, recovered to around break even or positive, but then slumped when the Fed minutes from the December FOMC meeting were released.
Horror of horrors, some members of the committee were actually openly suggesting an end to their long-standing asset purchase program "well before the end of" 2013.
It's obvious that the Fed can and will do whatever it feels necessary in order to achieve their goals of making every American a debt slave while keeping the US economy from falling into an abyss. In fact, the abyss might just be on the agenda, the Fed owing allegiance to nobody but themselves and their member banks.
So, when traders got a whiff of the odor of no more free money courtesy Helicopter Ben, some went scurrying for the exits, albeit, a bit prematurely. The Fed isn't about to end ZIRP or stop its insane money printing exercise (currenty at a cool $80 billion a month and counting), but there's also the fear that the political clowns in Washington may not exactly get around to cutting spending for a while, and they also may stage a huge fight over extending the debt limit, a la 2011.
So, life in La-La Land (AKA Wall Street) goes on. Stocks got a big boost by acersion of the fiscal cliff, though the job is only half done. There's a sense that whatever conditions arise to offend the investor class, the Fed and the government will be completely accommodative, so that corporate America and the financial sector participants can continue grinding the middle class into dust.
Today's small setback notwithstanding, there's very little fear to keep stocks contained in January, traditionally one of the best months for gains.
A couple of data releases on employment were mixed, with the ADP private jobs report for December showing a net gain of 215,000 jobs, while unemployment claims spiked higher, to 372.000, after last week's 350,000, which was revised (as it always is) higher, to 362,000. The dual releases sent a mixed message in front of tomorrow's December Non-farm Payroll data, due out at 8:30 am.
Dow 13,391.36, -21.19 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,100.57, -11.69 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,459.37, -3.05 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 8,597.61, -34.40 (0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,724,966,250
NYSE Volume 4,005,988,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3305-3199
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 427-17
WTI crude oil: 92.92, -0.20
Gold: 1,674.60, -14.20
Silver: 30.72, -0.287
Naturally, this is how the market rolls these days. If you're not one of the connected special few that can trade pre-market, in futures or make huge buys via HFT computers, like 99% of individual investors, you're SOL, missing out on most of the biggest moves in the market.
Is there any wonder the individual investor has pulled most, if not all, of their money out of equities? The odds are severely stacked against the little and middle guys, yet another reason to despise the one-percenters who glom up the vast majority of Wall Street profits.
As for today's action, not much was happening. Stocks drifted lower in the morning, recovered to around break even or positive, but then slumped when the Fed minutes from the December FOMC meeting were released.
Horror of horrors, some members of the committee were actually openly suggesting an end to their long-standing asset purchase program "well before the end of" 2013.
It's obvious that the Fed can and will do whatever it feels necessary in order to achieve their goals of making every American a debt slave while keeping the US economy from falling into an abyss. In fact, the abyss might just be on the agenda, the Fed owing allegiance to nobody but themselves and their member banks.
So, when traders got a whiff of the odor of no more free money courtesy Helicopter Ben, some went scurrying for the exits, albeit, a bit prematurely. The Fed isn't about to end ZIRP or stop its insane money printing exercise (currenty at a cool $80 billion a month and counting), but there's also the fear that the political clowns in Washington may not exactly get around to cutting spending for a while, and they also may stage a huge fight over extending the debt limit, a la 2011.
So, life in La-La Land (AKA Wall Street) goes on. Stocks got a big boost by acersion of the fiscal cliff, though the job is only half done. There's a sense that whatever conditions arise to offend the investor class, the Fed and the government will be completely accommodative, so that corporate America and the financial sector participants can continue grinding the middle class into dust.
Today's small setback notwithstanding, there's very little fear to keep stocks contained in January, traditionally one of the best months for gains.
A couple of data releases on employment were mixed, with the ADP private jobs report for December showing a net gain of 215,000 jobs, while unemployment claims spiked higher, to 372.000, after last week's 350,000, which was revised (as it always is) higher, to 362,000. The dual releases sent a mixed message in front of tomorrow's December Non-farm Payroll data, due out at 8:30 am.
Dow 13,391.36, -21.19 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 3,100.57, -11.69 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,459.37, -3.05 (0.21%)
NYSE Composite 8,597.61, -34.40 (0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,724,966,250
NYSE Volume 4,005,988,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3305-3199
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 427-17
WTI crude oil: 92.92, -0.20
Gold: 1,674.60, -14.20
Silver: 30.72, -0.287
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Washington Comes Alive Past Last Minute; Fiscal Cliff Averted... for Now; Wall Street Rejoices
Well, Money Daily was right. There was no fiscal cliff deal by midnight, December 31, 2012, but, those wily congress-critters once again outfoxed everyone by playing past the deadline and passing a bill that was, by and large, a deal, though it certainly didn't address any long-term issues, nor did it include any meaningful spending cuts.
Congress and the president - now back in Hawaii, playing golf, presumably - made sure that all the handouts would continue being handed out, extending unemployment benefits and keeping the Bush tax cuts in place for individuals earning less than $400,000 per year ($450,000 for couples), while raising the tax on those making more than that from 35% to 39.6%, which is a pretty big bite.
The "deal" also raised capital gains taxes from 15% to 20%, but only on those earning more than $400,000, a bit of relief for the 99% gang.
Scoring by the Congressional Budget Office and others put the cost of this deal at an increase of some $4 trillion to be added to the national debt over the next ten years. Nice job, boys.
Everybody's taxes will go up, however, because the deal did not extend the 2% tax holiday on Social Security payroll deductions, which was cut from 6.2% to 4.2% last year and will go back up to 6.2% this year. So, if you make $1000 a week, the feds will be taking an extra $20 out of every paycheck.
Foreclosures and short sales will continue to prosper in 2013, as the deal extended the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, which allows homeowners who experience a debt reduction through mortgage principal forgiveness or a short sale are exempt from being taxed on the forgiven amount.
Yippie! Our "Free houses for everyone!" motto lives on.
Wall Street was enthralled by the deal, sending stocks rocketing to their biggest gains of the year (Money Daily expects this will be the largest one-day gain for stocks in 2013, so bookmark this page now!).
The major indices made back all of the losses they took in the final ten trading days of 2012, and then some in just the first trading day of the new year.
At issue is how long the rally will last, whether this is just a one-day wonder or whether stocks can still remain the darlings of investors with 4th quarter earnings season on the horizon and the new congress (and same old president) having to deal with sequestration, deficit reduction and a debt limit increase within 60 days.
Since, according to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, we've already exceeded the debt limit, the feds will be borrowing from government pension funds to fund the government in the interim. A huge fight is ensured in February, as congress, if the latest fiasco offers any clue, won't want to deal with these issues until late in the game.
For now, though, roll with it. The Federal Reserve has the government's back, standing at the ready to print billions more in greenbacks at the hint of any troublesome developments.
Along with equities, expect everything else to keep getting pricier because there's really no easy way out of the monetary fix we're in. Next week, when life returns somewhat to normal, the angst will reemerge.
BTW: Money Daily was actually correct in predicting that everybody's taxes would go up under any kind of deal. They did. Check your paycheck in coming weeks for proof.
Dow 13,412.55, +308.41 (2.35%)
NASDAQ 3,112.26, +92.75 (3.07%)
S&P 500 1,462.42, +36.23 (2.54%)
NYSE Composite 8,631.18, +187.67 (2.22%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,071,100,625
NYSE Volume 4,634,567,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5798-863 (wOW!)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 679-21 (WOW! again)
WTI crude oil: 93.12, +1.30
Gold: 1,688.80, +13.00
Silver: 31.01, +0.78
Congress and the president - now back in Hawaii, playing golf, presumably - made sure that all the handouts would continue being handed out, extending unemployment benefits and keeping the Bush tax cuts in place for individuals earning less than $400,000 per year ($450,000 for couples), while raising the tax on those making more than that from 35% to 39.6%, which is a pretty big bite.
The "deal" also raised capital gains taxes from 15% to 20%, but only on those earning more than $400,000, a bit of relief for the 99% gang.
Scoring by the Congressional Budget Office and others put the cost of this deal at an increase of some $4 trillion to be added to the national debt over the next ten years. Nice job, boys.
Everybody's taxes will go up, however, because the deal did not extend the 2% tax holiday on Social Security payroll deductions, which was cut from 6.2% to 4.2% last year and will go back up to 6.2% this year. So, if you make $1000 a week, the feds will be taking an extra $20 out of every paycheck.
Foreclosures and short sales will continue to prosper in 2013, as the deal extended the 2007 Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, which allows homeowners who experience a debt reduction through mortgage principal forgiveness or a short sale are exempt from being taxed on the forgiven amount.
Yippie! Our "Free houses for everyone!" motto lives on.
Wall Street was enthralled by the deal, sending stocks rocketing to their biggest gains of the year (Money Daily expects this will be the largest one-day gain for stocks in 2013, so bookmark this page now!).
The major indices made back all of the losses they took in the final ten trading days of 2012, and then some in just the first trading day of the new year.
At issue is how long the rally will last, whether this is just a one-day wonder or whether stocks can still remain the darlings of investors with 4th quarter earnings season on the horizon and the new congress (and same old president) having to deal with sequestration, deficit reduction and a debt limit increase within 60 days.
Since, according to Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, we've already exceeded the debt limit, the feds will be borrowing from government pension funds to fund the government in the interim. A huge fight is ensured in February, as congress, if the latest fiasco offers any clue, won't want to deal with these issues until late in the game.
For now, though, roll with it. The Federal Reserve has the government's back, standing at the ready to print billions more in greenbacks at the hint of any troublesome developments.
Along with equities, expect everything else to keep getting pricier because there's really no easy way out of the monetary fix we're in. Next week, when life returns somewhat to normal, the angst will reemerge.
BTW: Money Daily was actually correct in predicting that everybody's taxes would go up under any kind of deal. They did. Check your paycheck in coming weeks for proof.
Dow 13,412.55, +308.41 (2.35%)
NASDAQ 3,112.26, +92.75 (3.07%)
S&P 500 1,462.42, +36.23 (2.54%)
NYSE Composite 8,631.18, +187.67 (2.22%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,071,100,625
NYSE Volume 4,634,567,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5798-863 (wOW!)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 679-21 (WOW! again)
WTI crude oil: 93.12, +1.30
Gold: 1,688.80, +13.00
Silver: 31.01, +0.78
Monday, December 31, 2012
Wall Street Jumps the Shark as Washington Sends America Over the Fiscal Cliff
Washington's silliness continued to drive Wall Street's greed instinct, and, on the final day of the year of 2012, Washington called Wall Street's bluff, and the sharpies on the trading exchanges not only blinked, but may have gotten poked in the eye.
According to the most unreliable sources available (CNBC), Mitch McConnell, minority leader in the Senate, and Joe Biden, vice president, struck a deal on Monday and have initiated what appears to be a deal, the most salient parts being a tax increase for earners making over $450,000 per year, extension of unemployment benefits and a hike in the capital gains tax to 20%.
As of the close of markets, no legislation has actually hit either floor of congress, though it certainly seemed good enough for the money merchants in the pits and on the trading floors.
It's an incredible show, befitting a broken political process and an illegitimate market run mostly by computers with algorithms trained to scan headlines.
The House has already said it won't vote on the measure until after the New Year, meaning, technically, there is no deal in place, and, as if there ever was any doubt, Money Daily has been proven correct, maintaining all along that there would be no deal before the stoke of midnight on December 31, 2012.
Without a doubt, the hilarity will continue on January 1st, 2nd, and beyond.
Happy New Year, America. Your political and financial leaders are drunk with money and power, but haven't a single functional wit among them.
Dow 13,104.14, +166.03 (1.28%)
NASDAQ 3,019.51, +59.20 (2.00%)
S&P 500 1,426.19, +23.76 (1.69%)
NYSE Composite 8,443.65, +127.49 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,515,324,375
NYSE Volume 3,546,216,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5340-1240
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 163-59
WTI crude oil: 91.82, +1.02
Gold: 1,675.80, +19.90
Silver: 30.23, +0.252
According to the most unreliable sources available (CNBC), Mitch McConnell, minority leader in the Senate, and Joe Biden, vice president, struck a deal on Monday and have initiated what appears to be a deal, the most salient parts being a tax increase for earners making over $450,000 per year, extension of unemployment benefits and a hike in the capital gains tax to 20%.
As of the close of markets, no legislation has actually hit either floor of congress, though it certainly seemed good enough for the money merchants in the pits and on the trading floors.
It's an incredible show, befitting a broken political process and an illegitimate market run mostly by computers with algorithms trained to scan headlines.
The House has already said it won't vote on the measure until after the New Year, meaning, technically, there is no deal in place, and, as if there ever was any doubt, Money Daily has been proven correct, maintaining all along that there would be no deal before the stoke of midnight on December 31, 2012.
Without a doubt, the hilarity will continue on January 1st, 2nd, and beyond.
Happy New Year, America. Your political and financial leaders are drunk with money and power, but haven't a single functional wit among them.
Dow 13,104.14, +166.03 (1.28%)
NASDAQ 3,019.51, +59.20 (2.00%)
S&P 500 1,426.19, +23.76 (1.69%)
NYSE Composite 8,443.65, +127.49 (1.53%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,515,324,375
NYSE Volume 3,546,216,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5340-1240
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 163-59
WTI crude oil: 91.82, +1.02
Gold: 1,675.80, +19.90
Silver: 30.23, +0.252
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