Situation in Cyprus Still Unresolved; European, US Stocks Hit

If Americans could pull themselves away from their TV sets and the NCAA tournament for a few moments, some of them might come to the realization that what's happening in Cyprus might just have huge global implications in the not-so-distant future.

While the story so far consists of a multitude of moving parts, what is known so far is that Cypriot banks - oversized in relation to the nation's GDP - are in deep, deep trouble and that the "troika" (EU, ECB and IMF) has given the tiny island nation until Monday to come up with a viable plan.

Cyprus has been told it must raise 5.8 billion euros ($7.5 billion) if it is to receive 10 billion euros ($12.9 billion) from its fellow eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund.

In the meantime, the banks remain closed, ostensibly to reopen on Tuesday of next week.

Many ATM machines have already run out of cash and one bank (Laiki) has already imposed capital controls, limiting withdrawals to 260 euros ($340) per person to conserve its dwindling funds. Rumors have it that Laiki will be folded into one or two of the other major banks in the nation, even though reported by CNBC, those reports have not been verified by reliable sources. The situation remains fluid with European officials, Russia (whose residents are responsible for the bulk of deposits in Cyprus' banks) and the Cypriot parliament are busy concocting ideas to rescue the banking system and the government, though nothing seems to be working particularly well at the moment.

Possible outcomes for Cyprus are varied and somewhat indecipherable at present, but what is known is that depositors almost certainly will be forced to surrender some of their funds via a tax, or levy, because there aren't enough bondholders in the banks to make up for the shortfall. Normally, those holders of bank debt would be first on the hook, but this situation is different from what has already occurred in Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

Nonetheless, whatever happens in Cyprus will have ramifications across Europe and the world. If the troika's plan to tax deposits becomes reality, it will almost certainly cause some degree of bank runs in the aforementioned countries that are already in trouble. The damage done to confidence in the system will be more severe. Banking and finance, largely based upon trust, cannot withstand wholesale looting of depositor accounts, no matter how small or seemingly trivial the amounts. The expectation is that banks are a safe place to park funds and the potential of either not having access to funds or having money appropriated (read: stolen) in order to bail out the bank itself or the government, is not part of the agreement.

Europeans are now looking at events in Cyprus through jaundiced eyes. The crisis is nigh upon four years old and the peripheral countries are still in recession, as is the whole of Europe. To date, all the plans of the EU, ECB and the IMF have amounted to only playing for time, and time is running short, both on the patience of the populaces and the viability of various governments.

The fear is that once the genie of appropriating depositor funds comes out of the bottle, it will be hard, if not impossible, to put back and will likely spread. No matter the eventual deal struck in Cyprus, capital flight is a certainty, the question being from where and to where the money will flow.

There's a certain unfairness about all of it, and a general sense of fear that hit markets this week with a thud. In the US, the damage has been downplayed thus far, but today's losses were the worst of the week and sent the major average to their lowest closes in nearly two weeks.

With the situation still unresolved, the anxiety on Wall Street and in other money centers around the globe is palpable. Unrestrained money printing, QE, low interest rates and other assorted "emergency" measures will not be able to trump a wholesale loss of confidence in the financial system itself, a condition which is likely long overdue.

Naturally, one cannot expect ordinary citizens and businesspeople around to world to immediately and simultaneously catch onto what's really occurring, but word is spreading, and quickly.

A piece of advice to everyone would be to watch one's finances carefully and keep a stash of cash outside the banking system, just in case. After all, it was one of our founding fathers - Benjamin Franklin - who opined, "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure." And the cure has yet to be found.

Also of note is that traditional "safe havens" - gold and silver - have been appreciating slightly, with today's moves the most significant.

Dow 14,421.49, -90.24 (0.62%)
NASDAQ 3,222.60, -31.59 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,545.80, -12.91 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 9,009.66, -71.43 (0.79%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,691,711,000
NYSE Volume 3,571,124,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2138-4254
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 303-28 (stretched)
WTI crude oil: 92.45, -1.05
Gold: 1,613.80, +6.30
Silver: 29.21, +0.395

Cyprus Still an Issue; Fed Statement a Snoozer

For some reason known only to those who choose to follow rather than lead, everything market-related hinged upon the release of the FOMC policy statement on federal funds rates, which, as almost everyone in the civilized world already knew, would remain unchanged.

Nonetheless, the bearded chairman and his scholarly cohorts ripped Cyprus from the front pages of economic news for the day and delivered their usual hokum statement about "moderate growth", "targeted inflation" and other assorted word-bites designed to make the markets kowtow to their planned economic dictums.

The committee also released forecasts on economic growth and unemployment for the remainder of 2013, 2104 and 2015 - forecasts which are generally nothing but flights of fancy and will almost certainly miss their marks widely.

And, there was a press conference and question and answer period, in which chairman Bernanke reread the aforementioned statement, added a few humorless remarks and fielded a number of softball questions from the drooling press pool.

It was enough to lull babies and pets to sleep.

Meanwhile, the ECB and IMF continue to wrestle with the issue of what to do about Cyprus, which is still unsettled and operating without banks being open for a fifth straight day. Today's announcement was that Cypriot banks will remain closed until Tuesday of next week, as the government expects massive bank runs once they are open for business.

Imagine the grand, self-important EU ministers losing any remaining credibility over what amounts to a three to six billion euro matter. Incredible as it sounds, that's what's happening.

Party on, America.

Party on, Europe.

Dow 14,511.73, +55.91 (0.39%)
NASDAQ 3,254.19, +25.09 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,558.71, +10.37 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 9,081.09, +63.42 (0.70%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,605,044,125
NYSE Volume 3,682,038,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4657-1782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 506-37
WTI crude oil: 92.96, +0.80
Gold: 1,607.50, -3.80
Silver: 28.82, -0.026

Cypriot Parliament Rejects Savings Levy; EU, ECB, IMF Relent

Congrats to the Cyprus parliament for calling the bluff on the EU, ECB and the IMF.

Shortly after noon EDT, the Cypriot parliament voted unanimously - in a rare show of anti-Euro solidarity - to reject the bailout plan proposed by the "troika" (EU, ECB, IMF) that would have imposed a tax on savers, a stark violation of the rule of law.

The plan called for a 9.9% tax on savings accounts in banks with holdings of more than 100,000 Euros, and a 6.5% levy on those under the 100,000 Euro threshold.

The vote had been delayed for two days, but, in the end, the parliament stood up for the welfare of the people and the sanctity of personal property rights, or, could it have been a reaction to a very real threat from retaliation from Russian oligarchs and mobsters (recognized as one and the same, in some circles)?

Much of the billions of Euros on deposit in Cypriot banks belong to Russians, a fact not lost on those who had the fate of their country and countrymen in their hands.

Whatever the case, the troika's gambit to impose a tax on savings accounts went up in flames, fabulously, though one has to fear that this was more of a test run for a future raid on the money held by individuals and companies in banks across Europe. So deep was the opposition that the parliament rejected the plan in toto, sending the ECB and IMF back to the drawing board.

The EU quickly issued a statement to the effect that it would use existing means to bailout the banks in Cyprus, and with them, the bankrupt government. Though nothing material was offered right away, all in Europe know that whatever solution the troika devises will be austere toward the general populace and kind to banks.

In the end, it will be the people who suffer most, as it has been in Greece, Portugal, Ireland and, to a lesser extent, Spain and Italy.

At one point during the back-and-forth of memos and media bites, one of the EU finance ministers quipped that Europe was two-thirds of the way through the crisis. Skeptics of the overall viability of the European Union will note that using 2008 as a baseline, the year 2014 would serve as an end to the crisis, otherwise meaning the collapse of the EU and the end of the Euro as a multi-national currency.

It doesn't get any stranger than in Europe, the dystopian nightmare conceived as a method to compete on a global scale which has devolved rapidly into an Orwellian series of meetings, dictums, bailouts, trial runs and sovereign failures.

America took the drama in stride, the markets stumbling through the early part of the session only to rally in the afternoon, though the crisis in Cyprus is still far from over. This was only act one of what will certainly be a three-to-five piece performance.

While it may be back to normal (whatever that means) for US and global markets for the next few days, the FOMC meeting of the Fed wraps up tomorrow at 2:00 pm EDT and the budget battle in the US congress continues to gain pace, with the Senate and House bills far from resolution.

As usual, congress will be out of session beginning March 25, though it must pass a continuing resolution by the 27th in order to forestall a government shutdown due to lack of funding. As in Europe, the nefarious machinations of government are never without a dramatic deadline. Thus, the remainder of the week will shift focus from the tiny island nation of Cyprus to the secluded denizens within the halls of congress.

For now...

Dow 14,455.82, +3.76 (0.03%)
NASDAQ 3,229.10, -8.49 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,548.34, -3.76 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 9,018.73, -26.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,648,331,375
NYSE Volume 3,809,744,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2643-3781
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 313-42 (shrinkage)
WTI crude oil: 92.16, -1.58
Gold: 1,611.30, +6.70
Silver: 28.84, -0.031

March Madness Redefined: Cyprus, the ECB and the IMF

March - in the United States, at least - is traditionally known for the great sporting event of the year, the annual NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, otherwise known as March Madness, because of the wild nature of the proceedings, the drama, last-second, game-winning shots (Buzzer Beaters) and the twists and turns taken en route to crowing a national champion.

Over the weekend, unbeknownst to college basketball fans and most regular American citizens, a new manner of March madness was created by the European Central Bank, the IMF and the nation of Cyprus. The reason nobody in America knew about what has been occurring on and around the tiny Mediterranean island is the usual: the US press is terminally asleep at the media wheel.

Re-capping the key events in this twisted tableau, the entire mess began years ago, as banks (the usual culprits) in Cyprus found themselves woefully underfunded and the government virtually bankrupt. Leave it at that, as yet another European nation finds itself with an unbearable debt burden and no reasonable way out.

The EU and the ECB have been grappling with the Cyprus situation for at least the last two years, doing little to nothing about it, their energies directed more at larger peripheral nations like Greece (a complete disaster), Spain (gaining fast on Greece), Ireland (terminally indebted), Portugal and Italy. These PIIGS, as they are lovingly called, have social and financial issues that needed more immediate attention and have been given directives, bailouts, loans and assorted "fixes" from the EU and the IMF, facilitating debt repurchases, funding ongoing governmental operations and generally kicking the proverbial can further down the road to the eventual collapse of the Euro.

Finally getting around to Cyprus this weekend, the EU and IMF decided that they would bail out the nation's banks to the tune of 10 billion Euros, a pittance comparatively, though the number fell short of what is really needed, which is more in the range of 16 to 17 billion Euros. even with that amount, tiny Cyprus would still have a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 180%. Shameful.

The kicker was that the proposed six-to-seven billion euros was to be funded from bank deposits.

STOP. Read that again. Yes, the EU and IMF told the Cypriot parliament to vote on a measure that would impair (tax) bank deposits at anywhere from six to 9.99%, the lower figure reserved for bank deposits below 100,000 Euros, the higher one applied to holdings over that figure. These are deposits of PEOPLE, companies, married couples, retirees which the leaders and brian-trust of the ECB thought reasonable to raid, to tax, to steal.

Never mind that bank deposits in all of Europe are guaranteed by the ECB up to 100,000 Euros, the six percent "tax" would be taken directly from bank accounts should parliament approve the proposal.

This, in the parlance of sports and March Madness, is what's known as a game changer. According to this banker proposal, your money, which you saved and deposited in a bank you thought was safe - and insured - could just simply be taxed away by authorities of some supra-national organization upon approval of your own parliament. Forget the rule of law, Forget property rights. Forget everything you ever thought about civilization, money, government and society. If there's a chance that your bank or your nation may not be able to make payments on debt, YOU PAY.

Curiously, this whole affair began on Friday night, after all the banks were closed for the weekend, and preceding a bank holiday in Cyprus on Monday. Since that time, all manner of posing, posturing, name-calling, demonstrations and other assorted madness has taken place, by EU finance ministers, various heads of state, the Cypriot parliament, the people of Cyprus and others, including just about every talking head on the financial news networks.

Currently, the parliament - having delayed the vote twice already - has announced to the one million residents of Cyprus that banks would be closed until Thursday. The joke of the day on that note was "which Thursday?"

So, bottom line is that the situation is still fluid, there's plenty of time for EU idiots and IMF monsters to make more absurd statements and demands, but, until something gets resolved, banks are closed, ATMs are out of cash and Cyprus will gradually devolve into something... not sure exactly what.

For more information on what may be the story of the year, the best single source is, as usual, ZeroHedge.com, which has been running numerous articles since the story broke. For more information, try this Bing News link, the Washington Post story, another by CBS News and one from the Christian Science Monitor.

No other story mattered at all today, and it's likely that no other story will matter for the remainder of the week, because, if governments or pseudo-authorities like the ECB and IMF can force their will upon a sovereign government to the extent that it violates its own laws by confiscating, stealing, expropriating the funds of its own citizens, we have truly entered a new world order, one that is owned by bankers and their appointed lackeys in high government positions.

For the record, nearly all markets were down, globally, Asian markets taking the news most seriously and the worst affected, followed by European markets and then, the US, which downplayed the event after utures had tanked prior to the opening bell and actually found a way to briefly trade in positive territory (Dow and S&P) during the afternoon.

On the Dow, support was breached early in the session and again at the close. If you're looking for a bottomless pit, the Dow is now it, though Europe and all of its exchanges will race it to the bottom unless something changes radically over the coming few days. If people cannot trust the banks to hold their money, it's the beginning of the end for the decrepit, lawless global banking cartel we've all come to know and loathe.

Dow 14,452.06, -62.05 (0.43%)
NASDAQ 3,237.59, -11.48 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,552.10, -8.60 (0.55%)
NYSE Composite 9,045.44, -71.24 (0.78%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,547,766,750
NYSE Volume 3,522,718,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2352-4125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 271-34
WTI crude oil:
Gold:
Silver:

Ides of March Kills Dow Streak; S&P Still Short of Record

2057 years ago (44 BC, to be exact), Julius Caesar was murdered by a knife in the back from a supposed ally - Brutus - who was acting at the behest of other members of the Roman Senate.

While today's failure of the Dow Jones Industrial average to make it eleven days in a row of gains fails by comparison in an historical context, the Ides of March (March 15) struck again, this time - unlike in caesar's final days - without warning.

The final tally for stocks was not so - pardon the pun - brutish as a knife in the back; today's silly downfall more resembled a paper cut, but, the rally has paused on what was one of the busier days Wall Street has seen in some time.

Combining a quadruple options witching day with a rebalancing of indices, volume was significantly pumped up beyond the normal dullness that has persevered over the past, what, four years?.

In any case, the selling pressure was enough to take stocks down in the early part of the session, only to see all the major indices rally to cut the extent of the losses by roughly two-thirds.

The key numbers to watch going into next week are 1565 on the S&P, which is the all-time closing high, set in October, 2007, a number in and of itself which was largely the result of excessive risk-taking and a monstrous credit bubble which has reappeared over the past 18 months.

On the Dow, the number would be 14,470.50, today's intraday low, a significant enough digit to mark the first line of support should the rally fail to metastasize next week.

The other streaks which came to an end today, beyond the Dow's 10-straight positive closes, were the string of Fridays in which the Dow closed positively and the all-up closes for the month of March. Today was the first day of March in which the Dow finished without a gain and also was the first Friday of 2013 to see a negative finish.

Not that today's smallish decline was anything for anybody to get excited about - it wasn't - but the end of a ten-day string of gains was monumental, being only the eighth time the Dow had ever strung together psotive closes in ten or more consecutive sessions.

With options expiry out of the way for the month (regardless of the weekly options now in vogue), there exists some probability that the markets could turn down in the near term, though analysts are still split on that particular notion.

All that can be said for now is that March - which in market terms came in like a lion - got a little of the lamb treatment today, stabbed and readied for roasting.

Dow 14,514.11, -25.03 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 3,249.07, -9.86 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,560.70, -2.53 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 9,116.50, -11.47 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,156,822,000
NYSE Volume 5,242,731,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2970-3455
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 527-46
WTI crude oil: 93.45, +0.42
Gold: 1,592.60, +1.90
Silver: 28.85, +0.044