Stock Rally Extends to Weekend, Rips Faces Off Bears

It was the worst of times. Then, midweek, it became the best of times.

With US stocks falling off the proverbial value cliff on Wednesday, just before noon everything suddenly changed, and the rest of the week was witness to a face-ripping surge which took the Dow Jones Industrials from a low of 15,450.56 on Wednesday to the close Friday at 16,093.51, a gain of 643 points, or, roughly four percent.

The gains from Wednesday afternoon, Thursday, and Friday were so large and so widespread that they left the seeming collapse of Tuesday and early Wednesday as fleeting memories.

Also on the agenda was the untimely end of the price collapse in crude oil, which bottomed out at 26 dollars and change on Wednesday, but closed Friday right around $32 per barrel.

Of course, all of this would not have been possible without some catalyst, like exceptional across-the-board earnings results, outstanding economic data or great geopolitical news. Truth is, none of that happened. Earnings reports have been moderate and inconsistent, economic data has been nothing if not poor, and the geopolitical condition has not changed one whit since Wednesday.

The rally was all concocted and executed by sellers of size, using hyperventilating computer algos which control more than 90% of the trading in the Wall Street casino. It is neither a fair market nor a free market, nor much of a market at all. There hasn't been true price discovery for a long time, at least since March of 2009, when the FASB suspended mark-to-market accounting and the Federal Reserve - in cahoots with the various central banks of Europe, China and Japan - went on an asset-buying binge and slashed the federal funds interest rate to zero.

The market of today is nothing like the one that worked in the heyday of Wall Street. This one is a rotting corpse, overseen by undertakers from the Fed and their lackeys in the large banks and brokerages, which control it, lock, stock and barrel. It is not a place to invest. It is a place to gamble, and gamblers almost always lose.

So it is that the Federal Reserve's reign over the world's finances will continue, with or without some occasional fireworks from the stock market.

The shortened week (markets were closed Monday for MLK Day) ended positive, the first in the three weeks thus far in 2016. However, unless this current rally remains intact and explosive to the upside next week, January will end in the red. By how much is anybody's guess, though the final two days of this week can rightfully be chalked up to options expiration, as doubles many a tenacious trader made money in a derivative fashion.

For the Week:
S&P: +26.57 (+1.41%)
Dow: +105.43 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +102.76 (+2.29%)

The Day's Closing Quotes:
S&P 500: 1,906.90, +37.91 (2.03%)
Dow: 16,093.51, +210.83 (1.33%)
NASDAQ: 4,591.18, +119.12 (2.66%)

Crude Oil 31.99 +8.33% Gold 1,097.50 -0.06% EUR/USD 1.08 -0.60% 10-Yr Bond 2.0480 +1.44% Corn 369.75 +0.75% Copper 2.00 +0.28% Silver 14.06 -0.24% Natural Gas 2.14 +0.05% Russell 2000 1,020.77 +2.35% VIX 22.34 -16.30% BATS 1000 20,303.38 +1.95% GBP/USD 1.4264 +0.34% USD/JPY 118.7715 +0.79%
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Stocks Bounce After Draghi Jawboning But Finish Poorly

For the most part, stocks were better behaved on Thursday than they have been almost any day in this new year, but that's hardly any consolation for investors and holders of 401k products, who have seen roughly 10% of their portfolios wiped out over the better part of the past three weeks.

European Central Bank Chairman, Mario Draghi, made brief headlines prior to the US market open, hinting to anybody within earshot that the ECB would review its policy in March. Market watchers, or, more specifically, alogrithms which control the direction of trading these days, took that to be a positive sign, so stocks flow higher and remained in positive territory for the entire session.

European stocks also finished green, though Asian markets had spooked the altos earlier, with the Shangai Stock Exchange down more than three percent, to 2880, its lowest level in over a year. The Nikkei shed another 2.5% and the Hang Seng was down nearly two percent.

While Draghi's comments to the press may have soothed some nerves for now, markets remain under pressure and without upside catalysts. The world is entering what appears to be a prolonged decline, prompted by years of overfunding of easy money by central banks globally.

With options expiring on Friday, both bulls and bears have been well-served this week. The closing session for the week may be on the tame side, if only due to stocks being overextended short-term to the downside and general exhaustion, though longer term, earnings of companies reporting thus far don't seem to hold much promise for a quick, lasting rebound.

If there was any disappointment on the day, it was into the close, which was unremarkably weak, the NASDAQ finishing within a hair's breath of going down the tubes.

Today's closing figures:
S&P 500: 1,868.99, +9.66 (0.52%)
Dow: 15,882.68, +115.94 (0.74%)
NASDAQ: 4,472.06, +0.37 (0.01%)

Crude Oil 29.70 +4.76% Gold 1,100.80 -0.49% EUR/USD 1.0876 -0.14% 10-Yr Bond 2.0190 +1.76% Corn 367.50 -0.34% Copper 1.99 +1.58% Silver 14.10 -0.39% Natural Gas 2.15 +1.61% Russell 2000 997.34 -0.20% VIX 26.69 -3.26% BATS 1000 19,915.85 +0.62% GBP/USD 1.4221 +0.23% USD/JPY 117.7250 +0.67%

This Crash Has Been Interrupted... for now

While the world's richest and most-influential types were sipping Valpolicella, stuffing themselves full of petit fours at the World Economic Forum in Davos, markets around the world were in turmoil.

Wednesday saw Asian markets fall completely out of bed, with the Nikkei falling into bear market territory for the first time, and Hong Knog's Hang Seng Index off by nearly 750 points and four percent. For a change, it wasn't the Shanghai SSE leading the way. It was down a mere one percent.

Spilling over into the European session, the feeling continued, just as it had almost every day of the new year. The Dax was a relative out-performer, with the German shares off just 2.82%, better, by comparison, than the FTSE 100 (-3.46) and the CAC 40 (-3.45). In effect, the day was a massive loss for holders of European stocks.

In the US, stocks were slammed at the opening bell, a knee-jerk reaction to the worldwide carnage, and the three major indices continued lower until just after noon, with the Dow recording a loss of 566 points.

But, all of a sudden, something changed. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ all began moving the other way, as if somebody had turned a loose screw or flipped a faulty switch, metaphors which may be closer to the truth than anyone would admit to, in the age of HFT and sophisticated algos.

The afternoon was all about erasing the embarrassment of the morning session, and it was done with considerable gusto and untold amounts of money from god-know-whom-or-where. The NASDAQ erased a 125-point decline, moving steadily higher to edge into positive territory in the final hour, though it could not hold onto gains, falling back into the red in the final 20 minutes of trading.

The losses in the other two indices were a little stickier, though the Dow improved dramatically, finishing down by just short of 250 points. The S&P lost 22.

So, what happened? Nothing, really, except that short sellers took profits midday, then sat back and counted their money, supposedly. The smart money - and there always is smart money - is currently on red. And it's going to stay there until the selling stops, which, if the past two weeks are any indication, won't be any time soon.

For instance, the Dow still has 1200 points to get to bear market territory. The NASDAQ and S&P are similarly down about 15% from their highs (last May) and will need a little more time. Don't be surprised if there's a snap-back rally with some ferocity over the next two days as options expire on Friday.

What may be of more technical interest (no pun intended) is the yield on the ten-year note, which closed today under 2.00% for the first time in nearly a year. Following the federal funds rate hike in December, rates were supposed to rise. They've gone in the opposite direction, to the Fed's dismay. Look for the Federal Reserve to call an emergency meeting in the not-so-distant future if the selling doesn't abate shortly.

S&P 500: 1,859.33, -22.00 (1.17%)
Dow: 15,766.74, -249.28 (1.56%)
NASDSAQ: 4,471.69, -5.26 (0.12%)

Crude Oil 26.76 -5.97% Gold 1,101.20 +1.11% EUR/USD 1.0891 -0.18% 10-Yr Bond 1.9840 -2.51% Corn 368.00 +0.07% Copper 1.98 +0.13% Silver 14.17 +0.35% Natural Gas 2.14 +2.58% Russell 2000 999.31 +0.45% VIX 27.59 +5.91% BATS 1000 19,792.43 -1.24% GBP/USD 1.4193 +0.22% USD/JPY 116.9350 -0.60%

Stocks Bounce, But Rally Is Short-Lived Following MLK Holiday

Oddly buoyed by bad data out of China (missed GDP estimates at 6.9%), stocks made a half-hearted attempt to stem some of the losses it took in the first two weeks of the year, rising by about one percent across the three major indices early, but the rally could not find its legs and sellers soon took over, sending the NASDAQ into negative territory for the ninth time in 11 sessions this year.

While there's still eight trading days remaining in the month, the January Barometer merits mention at this juncture if only because the month, as a whole, seems to be lost.

Readers will be reminded that the January Barometer - which posits that "as goes January, so goes the year" - has a roughly 90% correlation. The only question now for traders seems to be not whether the year of 2016 will be a bad one, but just how bad it will end.

Indications continue to suggest that the correction is far from over and the potential of an outright bear market is only being kept off the table due to some select large cap stocks. 65% of stocks on the S&P 500 are already in a bear market, i.e., off 20% or more, and the Russell 2000 is down more than 20% from previous highs.

Equities may have gotten a one-day reprieve from some non-committal buyers of the dip, but that strategy seems to have worn out its welcome. Seasoned traders are becoming more and more risk-averse, seeking the safety of large caps with steady dividends, strong balance sheets (there aren't many), and, as the 10-year-note is telling us quite plainly, fixed income investments.

Today's volatility included a 270-point round trip for the Dow, which was down more than 100 points midday. Wednesday may prove more challenging as markets approach the traditional options expiry on the third Friday of the month, at the end of the current week.

Today's Closing Quotes:
S&P 500: 1,881.33, +1.00 (0.05%)
Dow: 16,016.02, +27.94 (0.17%)
NASADAQ: 4,476.95, -11.47 (0.26%)

Crude Oil 28.59 -2.82% Gold 1,090.70 +0.01% EUR/USD 1.0908 +0.17% 10-Yr Bond 2.0350 +0.10% Corn 368.50 +1.45% Copper 1.97 +1.11% Silver 14.07 +1.29% Natural Gas 2.08 -0.76% Russell 2000 994.87 -1.28% VIX 26.05 -3.59% BATS 1000 20,041.25 -0.13% GBP/USD 1.4160 -0.66% USD/JPY 117.6320 +0.18%

Stocks Slammed Globally, S&P Under 1900; Dow Drops Below 16,000

Wall Street is, at last, getting the just desserts from seven years of Fed policies that have funneled trillions of dollars into the hands of the wealthiest people in the country.

The kicker is that the American public, the 65-70% that still works for a living, are going to get the worst of it.

Today's carnage in US equity markets was not an isolated event by any means. It began years ago, but, in its most current manifestation, the collapse began in China last night, when the SSE fell nearly 5% in its last session of the week.

The contagious selling fever spilled over into European markets, with the DAX, CAC-40, and FTSE-100 ending the day down by 2.54%, 2.38% and 1.93%, respectively.

Prior to markets opening in the US, however, there was a spate of poor economic data released.

Retail sales for December came in at -0.1. PPI went negative (deflation) in December, at -0.2%. Empire Manufacturing (a gauge for economic activity in the NY Fed district, collapsed from a reading of -6.2 in December, to a ghastly -19.4 in January.

Industrial Production fell 0.4%. Capacity Utilization slumped to 76.5%.

Then came the news from Wal-Mart that they would be closing 269 stores this year, with 154 of them in the United States. The full list of Wal-Mart store closings can be seen here.

By the time markets actually opened at 9:30 am ET, futures were showing the Dow down by more than 350 points and the indices all fell off a cliff at the sound of the opening bell.

By midday, the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ had shed close to 150, and the S&P was sporting losses of more than 50 points.

While today's crashing stock indices were certainly bloody, they weren't even close to the 10 worst one-day Dow declines of all time, so all is not lost.

As the session wore on, the signs of a failing economy - both here in the US and globally - were everywhere. The 10-year note fell briefly below 2.00%. With 1/2 hour left to go, declining issues were leading advancers roughly 6:1. Intel (INTC) was down nine percent. Citigroup (C) was posting a 6% loss; Microsoft (MSFT) was clinging to a four percent downside. Bank of America (BAC), which was pushing 17 two weeks ago, sliced through 15 and was trading in the range of 14.40, down 4.0% on the day.

With more companies reporting Q4 and annual earnings next week, the action this week and today might just be an appetizer for what's about to come, and that might be a recession, collapsing corporate earnings, liquidations, bankruptcies and the wholesale destruction of pension funds - heavily invested in equities - nationwide.

For its part, the Fed trotted out William Dudley, president of the NY Fed and vice chairman of the FOMc, who noted that negative rates could be considered in light of the recent market volatility. His tongue-lapping of the markets didn't seem to carry much weight. Investors were only interested in getting out and limiting the damage prior to the long weekend.

The day's closing prices:
S&P 500: 1,880.28, -41.56 (2.16%)
Dow: 15,988.08, -390.97 (2.39%)
NASDAQ: 4,488.42, -126.59 (2.74%)

Crude Oil 29.67 -4.90% Gold 1,088.90 +1.43% EUR/USD 1.0920 +0.53% 10-Yr Bond 2.03 -3.10% Corn 362.50 +1.26% Copper 1.95 -1.57% Silver 13.90 +1.14% Natural Gas 2.10 -1.73% Russell 2000 1,005.44 -1.97% VIX 27.70 +15.66% BATS 1000 20,066.91 -1.99% GBP/USD 1.4255 -1.13% USD/JPY 117.0050 -0.97%

For the week:
S&P: -41.76 (-2.17)
Dow: -358.71 (-2.19)
NASDAQ: -155.21 (-3.34)