Dow Cracks 22,000

Putting the recent rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average into perspective, on March 9, 2009, the index closed at 6,547.05, generally considered the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). That's a gain of 236%, or, an average of nearly 30% per year in just over eight years. At that rate, compounded, $100,000 would have turned into over $800,000.

That's in an economy which hasn't had growth of more than 2.6% in any year since 2008.

That is not just absurd on the face, it's nearly impossible... unless the markets had help. Thank the Fed.

At the Close, 8/2/17:
Dow: 22,016.24, +52.32 (0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.65, -0.29 (0.00%)
S&P 500: 2,477.57, +1.22 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,979.37, -20.65 (-0.17%)

Dow Set To Rise Over 22,000; ADP Report Shows 178,000 July Jobs

For a change, all of the major indices moved in the same direction on the day. While the Dow set a new closing all-time high, it fell short of the 22,000 milestone, though the NYSE Composite squeaked by the 12,000 mark by a mere 0.02 points.

With earnings news continuing to come out in fairly rosy fashion, the latest from Apple (AAPL), reporting better-than-expected iPhone sales, revenue and earnings per share.

As August rolls along, there appear to be few impediments to further gains in stocks. Earnings reports will begin to slow to a trickle, but there is no FOMC meeting this month, and congress is likely to take at least two weeks off after wasting the first two weeks of the month posturing and posing over health care and/or tax reform.

It's unlikely that congress will accomplish anything of import, as their record of accomplishments since Donald Trump became president is shallow and thin.

Of some significance is Friday's release of July non-farm payroll numbers. Wednesday morning, ADP released their proprietary payroll data for the month, showing 178,000 new private sector jobs created in July. Expectations were for 185,000, after June disappointed with just 158,000 jobs created.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes its data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 am ET.

Whether the jobs data is good or bad may be immaterial, as the market has a tendency to take either without much pause. Just about everybody knows the economy is stuck in low gear, with the Fed and other central banks' backing and active in the markets.

22,000 on the Dow is a no-brainer. Unless war is launched against North Korea or some other great geo-political development occurs, nothing significant is likely to happen until congress reconvenes in September and attempts to craft a budget and hurdle the debt ceiling.

If there's ever been a time to break out the "all clear" foghorn, this could be it.

Still, it's advisable to keep close stops on positions because surprises routinely occur when complacency is high.

At the Close, 8/1/17:
Dow: 21,963.92, +72.80 (0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,362.94, +14.81 (0.23%)
S&P 500: 2,476.35, +6.05 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 12,000.02, +32.35 (0.27%)

Preparing for the Moonshot... Rammstein's Amerika

Stocks sent the last day of July and the first day of the week in typical manipulated fashion, with the indices split, the Dow and Composite on the upside and the NASDAQ and S&P suffering small losses.

As August opens for trading on Tuesday, what's expected is nothing less than a fireworks show, a moonshot, with futures pointing to an explosive opening. Once the insiders have their gains off the open, it's open season for stock speculation. Without a care in the world concerning geo-political events or massive, unfunded liabilities and fiat money debt, Wall Street is sure to ramp the Dow over the 22,000 mark on Tuesday and the NYSE Composite over 12,000.

Happy, happy, joy, joy.

At the Close, 7/31/17:
Dow: 21,891.12, +60.81 (0.28%)
NASDAQ: 6,348.12, -26.55 (-0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,470.30, -1.80 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,967.67, +12.98 (0.11%)

Here's Rammstein:

More of the Same: Dow up, S&P, Comp., NASDAQ Down

The week came to an end with the usual split markets, a recurring motif of the current malaise in high finance.

Glancing at the figures below, we see that the Dow reached another new all-time closing high, while the weekly figures show the Dow putting on a good show with the other major indices pretty close to flat-lining.

In that this is not readily apparent as some kind of bias in the stock selection process, it is worth noting that market breadth has been breathtakingly narrow, with only a handful of NASDAQ stocks (particularly, the FAANGs) accountable for the bulk of recent advances.

Throwing the high tech stocks out of the mix would yield some rather mundane results in the NAZ, but the Dow, on the other hand, gets higher marks for its eclectic mix of dividend payers, stocks in favor throughout the low-interest rate environment of the past 17 years. It's no wonder that the Dow has exceeded all expectations when it comes to valuation, especially now that the "new normal" consists of stock buybacks and higher P/E ratios than in the latter decades of the 20th century.

Cold water should not be thrown upon the success of stock pickers and other erstwhile enthusiasts of paper promises and financial propaganda. Equity shares and fiat money are the currency of choice. Better to go with the flow than try to staunch the rising tide.

At the Close: 7/28/17:
Dow: 21,830.31, +33.76 (0.15%)
NASDAQ: 6,374.68, -7.51 (-0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,472.10, -3.32 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,954.69, -8.54 (-0.07%)

For the Week:
Dow: +250.24 (1.61%)
NASDAQ: -13.08 (-0.20)
S&P 500: -0.44 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite: +30.09 (0.25%)

Trouble In Wonderland; Amazon Drops On Disappointing 2Q Earnings

Nothing other than the usual dippity-doodle for these schizophrenic markets run almost entirely by computer algorithms as July draws to a close.

Apparently, all the new highs were just too much to handle, except in the case of the Dow, which is nearing orbital velocity, but all the other majors pulled back around midday.

The reasons for the collapse (the NASDAQ lost 130 points in roughly an hour and-a-half) were unclear, though the growing chorus of Wall Street analysts using words like bubble, overvalued, and crash may have something to do with it.

Also on the radar is tomorrow's first estimate (guess) of second quarter '17 GDP. The first quarter was nothing to scream about, at 1.6%, but there are plenty of prognosticators calling for upwards of 2.6% for the second quarter. Others remain skeptical, but the news will be released soon enough, prior to the opening bell on Friday.

After the close, Amazon released second quarter results, which were highly anticipated, but turned out to be a dud for investors.

Amazon (AMZN) reported Q2 net income of $197 million, or $0.40 per diluted share, down 77% from $857 million, or $1.78 in Q2 2016. This was on revenue of $37.955 billion, up 25% from the $30.4 billion a year ago, and above both the company's own expectations of $35.25-$37.75BN and consensus estimates of $37.18 billion. The company also reported operating margin of 1.7%, down from 2.8% last quarter and well below expectations.

Amazon was down two percent in after hours trading.

So why is everybody so skittish, or is it just the algos?

At the Close, 7/27/17:
Dow: 21,796.55, +85.54 (0.39%)
NASDAQ: 6,382.19, -40.56 (-0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,475.42, -2.41 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 11,963.23, -1.68 (-0.01%)