Monday's Big Bounce Sets Up For Extended Short-Term Rally, Continued Volatility

After last week's bloodletting, it was no surprise that bargain hunters emerged to open the week's trading, sending the markets through the roof right at the open and holding gains throughout the session.

With a four percent loss booked for the prior week, Monday's 1.5-2.0% gains amount to little more than a technical snap-back rally off some very fresh and very dangerous new lows. Early indications from brisk Black Friday weekend sales were the most likely catalyst for Cyber Monday buying, a reflection of what may be considered a robust economy backed by consumers with full wallets and plenty of room to spare on credit cards.

While the Fed has been tightening over the past two years, banks, credit card operations, and shadow banking entities have been cranking up the credit spigots, loosening lending standards and making more money available via an array of personal loans, small business offerings, refinancing, consolidations and other assorted credit vehicles. There certainly is no shortage of easy money in the consumer and small business space, nor in the higher levels of corporate finance.

Add to the consumer and business conditions wide-open spending by governments at all levels and the US economy appears robust, dynamic and unflinching. Never mind that the Fed is threatening to take away the punch bowl. There are more than enough willing participants and suppliers of easy money, many of them spring the mix with added enticements.

There are crosswinds in the capital markets which lead to wild swings in every manner of asset. The flavor of the day may change, but the underlying theme of easy money has not yet left the room. America is in a period that rivals the roaring twenties, the nifty sixties and even the greed-is-good nineties.

The party goes on until the elixir of fast, easy money is taken away, and that's not happening any time soon. Expect even more volatility through the holidays and into the new year.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
11/1/18	25,380.74	+264.98	+264.98
11/2/18	25,270.83	-109.91	+155.07
11/5/18	25,461.70	+190.87	+345.94
11/6/18	25,635.01	+173.31	+519.25
11/7/18	26,180.30	+545.29	+1064.54
11/8/18	26,191.22	+10.92	+1075.46
11/9/18	25,989.30	-201.92	+873.54
11/12/18	25,387.18	-602.12	+271.42
11/13/18	25,286.49	-100.69	+170.27
11/14/18	25,080.50	-205.99	-35.72
11/15/18	25,289.27	+208.77	+173.05
11/16/18	25,413.22	+123.95	+297.00
11/19/18	25,017.44	-395.78	-98.78
11/20/18	24,465.64	-551.80	-650.58
11/21/18	24,464.69	-0.95	-651.53
11/23/18	24,285.95	-178.74	-830.27
11/26/18	24,640.24	+354.29	-475.98

At the Close, Monday, December 26, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,640.24, +354.29 (+1.46%)
NASDAQ: 7,081.85, +142.87 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: 2,673.45, +40.89 (+1.55%)
NYSE Composite: 12,181.60, +145.36 (+1.21%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Black Friday or Blue Friday? Oil Down 34%, S&P, NASDAQ, NYSE In Correction

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

While the exact origin of the above phrase is clouded, it certainly applies to the current stock trading regimen that has sent world markets spinning downward and US stocks to levels comparable to nearly a year ago.

The sad situation for stocks continued even into the holiday season, when the traditionally upbeat and optimistic Black Friday half-day session turned into a savage selloff that lasted right through to the 1:00 pm ET close.

Following a brief respite on Wednesday that saw the Dow end down less than one point, and the Thanksgiving Day holiday, investors took their cues from overseas markets, which were sold off on Thursday, extending the dour moods in Europe and the Pacific Rim. Friday's trading in foreign markets was mixed, though the outlier was Brazil, where the Bovespa lost 1,247.21 points (-1.43%), confirming the theme of a global, rolling, slow-motion crash in equity values.

According to respected sources (ZeroHedge and ETF Daily News), the Dow suffered its worst Black Friday loss since 2010 and the S&P saw its worst performance for the day after Thanksgiving since the mid-1930s.

While the Dow has not yet caught down to its deepest depths of 2018, it is approaching the 2018 bottom from March 23 (23,533.20), promoting the idea that the worst of this round o selling is not quite over.

Friday's session concluded another in a series of poor performances for stocks, nearly equalling the declines seen in the week of October 8-12, sending all of the major indices below their respective 50, 200, and 40-week moving averages.

While shoppers in the US were out buying electronics, toys, appliances, clothes, and assorted trinkets, Wall Street traders were selling off assets, not an encouraging start to the holiday season. All of the major averages ended the week below where they started 2018. Without a significant Santa Claus rally, 2018 looks to be one of the worst for traders since 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 38.49%. Since then, only twice - in 2011 and 2015 - has the S&P closed lower than the close from the previous year. Currently, the S&P is down less than two percent on the year.

Friday's losses sent there S&P 500 into correction territory, ending down 10.17% from the September 20 all-time high (2930.75). The NASDAQ sank further into correction, and is approaching an outright bear market. The NASDAQ is down 14,44% from its August 29 high (8109.69).

On October 3rd, the Dow Industrials closed at an all-time high of 26,828.39. On Friday, it closed down 9.48% from that level.

The NYSE Composite, which peaked on January 25 at 13,637.02, is down 11.74%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Index is down 10.39 since closing at 11,570.84 on September 14.

Finally, the big loser for the week - which will eventually be a boon to consumers - was oil, which was once again crushed, as WTI crude lost more than seven percent, to $50.42/barrel. On October 3rd, coincidentally the game day the Dow peaked, WTI crude sold for $76.41 per barrel. That's a decline of 34.02% in just over seven weeks. Now, that's a crash.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
11/1/18	25,380.74	+264.98	+264.98
11/2/18	25,270.83	-109.91	+155.07
11/5/18	25,461.70	+190.87	+345.94
11/6/18	25,635.01	+173.31	+519.25
11/7/18	26,180.30	+545.29	+1064.54
11/8/18	26,191.22	+10.92	+1075.46
11/9/18	25,989.30	-201.92	+873.54
11/12/18	25,387.18	-602.12	+271.42
11/13/18	25,286.49	-100.69	+170.27
11/14/18	25,080.50	-205.99	-35.72
11/15/18	25,289.27	+208.77	+173.05
11/16/18	25,413.22	+123.95	+297.00
11/19/18	25,017.44	-395.78	-98.78
11/20/18	24,465.64	-551.80	-650.58
11/21/18	24,464.69	-0.95	-651.53
11/23/18	24,285.95	-178.74	-830.27

At the Close, Friday, November 23, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,285.95, -178.74 (-0.73%)
NASDAQ: 6,938.98, -33.27 (-0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,632.56, -17.37 (-0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 12,036.24, -87.10 (-0.72%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1,127.27 (-4.44%)
NASDAQ: -308.89 (-4.26%)
S&P 500: -103.71 (-3.79%)
NYSE Composite: -364.04 (-2.94%)

Thanksgiving Is Not For Giving Money To Brokers; Dow Slides Into Weakened Holiday Close

All the stocks you bought last year are worth less this year.

Big deal, right? You still have the same stocks and they'll come back. The stock market always goes higher.

That seems to be the common wisdom, or at least a salve for wounds incurred during the recent downturn, and such thinking is especially appropriate for the millions of small investors who have their money locked up in 401k plans, IRAs or other retirement or long-range investment vehicles. These folks aren't as nimble nor as knowledgeable as the pros on Wall Street or even their local corner store stock broker. They're stuck. They're what's known in the industry as bag-holders, and, as mentioned above, there are millions of them.

The way average consumers - as investors, per se - are treated by the large funds and brokerages who manage their money is tantamount to a skimming operation, not unlike the protection rackets made famous by mob bosses from the 20s, 30s and 40s.

You give the fund your money, and they make sure nothing bad happens to it, suggesting that they will invest it wisely, and, for that privilege, you pay them a fee. If things go wrong, and your money diminishes, your account balance declines, the fund is not held responsible. Too bad. Tough break. "We don't control the market," they'll tell you.

The willingness with which people turn over hard-earned money to managers to invest is a concept that has baffled and befuddled psychologists and entrepreneurs for time immemorial. The generations who were adults during the ravages of the Great Depression - though most of them have passed away - and anyone who lost money in the dotcom bust or the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007-09, have been rightfully skeptical of the suggestions and promises made by the hawkers of stocks and bonds, the skimmers of fees, the suit-and-tie, computer-aided experts who are allowed to handle everybody else's money.

Does the small investor ever ponder what the broker does with his money? Is he or she investing in the same stocks as the general public he or she is serving? That question is seldom asked, and even more infrequently, answered. And when stocks start to slide, what does the broker do? Is he or she holding steady, as the clients are told to do, or has he or she jumped ship, pulling all the profits out of the stocks he or she owns? These are interesting questions, which, unfortunately, are not required to be answered by individual brokers or their companies. The fiduciary aspects of the brokerage business leaves much to be desired in terms of consumer protection. In brief, consumers are NOT protected and never have been. When one hands over money to a broker, they also give the right for the broker to do whatever he or she wishes with those funds.

This is not an indictment of any broker or investment house. There are many good ones, more good than bad, by a long shot. However, they all share a few common traits: they routinely under-perform the general indices (the most-often quoted statistic being behind the S&P), and, they have zero accountability when they lose money for their clients.

So, this Thanksgiving, be thankful you have money that you can spread around for brokers to manage for you, because, apparently, you're not confident enough nor smart enough to manage it yourself. And then you pay taxes, if you have any gains.

Now, to those uppity markets...

Stocks were floating along a sugar high on the day before Thanksgiving until the rush of a dead-cat rally wore off around 2:00 pm ET., and in an especially large manner on the Dow in the final hour of trading (by this time, your broker was already over the river and through the woods, on his way to Grandmother's house).

The Dow dropped 200 points in those final two hours of trading, the bulk of it (185 points) in the final hour. The other indices lost ground, though not to the degree that the Dow Industrials slumped. A lot of the loss was in Apple, the stock that has been largely blamed for Tuesday's selling.

Finally, the Dow ended with a loss of less than one point. Ouch. Stocks will be on sale again on Black Friday, in a shortened session which ends at 1:00 pm ET.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
11/1/18	25,380.74	+264.98	+264.98
11/2/18	25,270.83	-109.91	+155.07
11/5/18	25,461.70	+190.87	+345.94
11/6/18	25,635.01	+173.31	+519.25
11/7/18	26,180.30	+545.29	+1064.54
11/8/18	26,191.22	+10.92	+1075.46
11/9/18	25,989.30	-201.92	+873.54
11/12/18	25,387.18	-602.12	+271.42
11/13/18	25,286.49	-100.69	+170.27
11/14/18	25,080.50	-205.99	-35.72
11/15/18	25,289.27	+208.77	+173.05
11/16/18	25,413.22	+123.95	+297.00
11/19/18	25,017.44	-395.78	-98.78
11/20/18	24,465.64	-551.80	-650.58
11/21/18	24,464.69	-0.95	-651.53

At the Close, Wednesday, November 21, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,464.69, -0.95 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: 6,972.25, +63.43 (+0.92%)
S&P 500: 2,649.93, +8.04 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 12,123.34, +74.69 (+0.62%)

Crash Much? All 2018 Gains Wiped Out In Global Stock Rout

Where to begin?

Today's stock market rout was worldwide, starting in Japan, as the NIKKEI fell 238 points, the Hong Kong's Hang Sent slid 531 points and China's SSE Composite Index closed at 2,645.85, down 57.66 points, or -2.13%.

Europe was next up on the hit list, as the Germany's DAX was off 178.13 points (-1.58%), closing in on a 20% decline for the year. Other European stock indices were down between one and one-and-a-half percent.

As markets opened in the Western Hemisphere, the selling accelerated, sending the Dow down more than 400 points at the open and other North and South American indices falling sharply. By the end of the day, it was absolute carnage, a veritable sea of red. Every equity index on Yahoo's Major World Indices page was lower, save Malaysia's KLCI, which managed a 4-point, 0.25% gain.

Seriously, though, today's crash began in the fall of 2008, when stocks were wiped out in the face of the Lehman Brothers collapse and the sub-prime housing crisis, and also had roots from April 9, 2009, when stocks finally bottomed out as the FASB loosened accounting rules, issuing an official update to rule 157, allowing companies to deviate from standard mark-to-market principles in valuing assets.

The Fed and its central bank cohorts had their dirty little fingers in the dikes as well, conjuring up trillions of dollars in liquidity, effectively bailing out financial institutions that were, essentially, bankrupt. That's what brought us here today, ten years and trillions of dollars later. The everything bubble has finally popped.

This is a rolling crash, not a hard one, like on Black Tuesday in 1929. There have been - in just the past eight trading days - losses on the Dow of 201, 602, 100, 206, 395 points and today's 552. There were gains of 201 and 124 points on Thursday and Friday of last week, but the cumulative effect comes to a loss of 1731 points since November 8, roughly a seven percent dribble.

Tuesday's losses sent the S&P 500 hurtling toward correction territory. From the close of 2,930.75 on September 20 to today's finish at 2,641.89 is a 9.86% loss. For those in the rounding up-or-down crowd, that's 10 percent, or, close enough for horseshoes or hand grenades.

For those keeping score, the Dow is down 8.81% from it's closing high on October 3 (26,828.39). The NASDAQ, which has been in and out and back into correction since October 24, is still up on the year... a whopping five points and change. The index is down 14.82% since August 29. Albeit marginally, the Dow Industrials, S&P, NYSE Composite and the Dow Transports are all lower for the year.

The NYSE Composite which peaked at 13,637.02 on January 26 and never regained that height, is down 11.61%, reaching down to correction levels today, though, like the NASDAQ, it had breached the 10% down level on October 24 and since recovered.

Lastly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished today with a loss of 321.52 (-3.05%), at 10,212.94. That's an 11.74% drop from the all-time high close of 11,570.84, September 14.

In the commodity space, oil was crushed again today, as WTI crude futures ended at 53.22, down $3.98 per barrel (-6.94%). According to oilprice.com, that's the lowest price since mid-October of 2017.

Where do stocks go from here? That question almost answers itself.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
11/1/18	25,380.74	+264.98	+264.98
11/2/18	25,270.83	-109.91	+155.07
11/5/18	25,461.70	+190.87	+345.94
11/6/18	25,635.01	+173.31	+519.25
11/7/18	26,180.30	+545.29	+1064.54
11/8/18	26,191.22	+10.92	+1075.46
11/9/18	25,989.30	-201.92	+873.54
11/12/18	25,387.18	-602.12	+271.42
11/13/18	25,286.49	-100.69	+170.27
11/14/18	25,080.50	-205.99	-35.72
11/15/18	25,289.27	+208.77	+173.05
11/16/18	25,413.22	+123.95	+297.00
11/19/18	25,017.44	-395.78	-98.78
11/20/18	24,465.64	-551.80	-650.58

At the Close, Tuesday, November 20, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,465.64, -551.80 (-2.21%)
NASDAQ: 6,908.82, -119.65 (-1.70%)
S&P 500: 2,641.89, -48.84 (-1.82%)
NYSE Composite: 12,054.17, -226.74 (-1.85%)

Another Blue Monday As Stocks Slammed Hard All Day; Techs Lead Losers

Whew!

This is becoming serious. Last week, when stock traders had a day off for observance of Veterans Day, the week opened with a 600-point loss. Today, the start of a new week, sees stocks tank to the tune of nearly 400 points.

It's not just the start of the week that's been bad of late, it's a recurring trend for the Dow and NASDAQ to slide by triple digits over the course of one session. The down days are beginning to add up, suggesting that something bigger is on the immediate horizon, and it's happening at a time which is usually a good one for stocks. November and December are among the better months for stock gains, though that doesn't look to be the case this season (Is it too early to say "Happy Holidays?").

Most of the selling on Monday came early. Shortly after noon in New York, the Dow had already shed more than 60 points. For the remainder of the session the blue chip index bounced around in a 100-point range, as some tepid buying emerged, though there was not wide enough commitment to keep stocks from near the lows of the day.

Faring even worse was the NASDAQ, which lost more than 100 points for the eighth time in the past seven weeks. In for particular harsh treatment are, and have been, tech stocks. It seems as though any company with a CEO under 40 or with any connection to computers or the internet has been targeted for extermination.

Here are some of the more notable Silicon Valley names on the Wall Street hit list:

• Facebook: hit a high of 217 in July, closed today at 131.55.
• Alphabet (Google): August 29: 1,249.30; Today: 1,020.00
• Netflix: August 30: 370.98; Today: 270.60
• Apple: September 4: 227.57; Today: 185.86
• Nvidia: September 4: 283.70; Today: 144.70
• Amazon: August 31: 2,012.71; Today: 1,512.29

These stocks were among the leaders during the long run-up from 2016 and prior. Now they are the loss-leaders. Amazon's peak is of interest because that was also the day the NASDAQ finished what looks like a pretty solid double top. It closed on August 29 at 8109.69 and on the 31st at 8109.54. It's been downhill since, the NASDAQ sporting a 13% decline since then.

Nobody knows exactly where this is all going, but, from recent market action, it looks to be headed to a not very nice place.

Dow Jones Industrial Average November Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
11/1/18	25,380.74	+264.98	+264.98
11/2/18	25,270.83	-109.91	+155.07
11/5/18	25,461.70	+190.87	+345.94
11/6/18	25,635.01	+173.31	+519.25
11/7/18	26,180.30	+545.29	+1064.54
11/8/18	26,191.22	+10.92	+1075.46
11/9/18	25,989.30	-201.92	+873.54
11/12/18	25,387.18	-602.12	+271.42
11/13/18	25,286.49	-100.69	+170.27
11/14/18	25,080.50	-205.99	-35.72
11/15/18	25,289.27	+208.77	+173.05
11/16/18	25,413.22	+123.95	+297.00
11/19/18	25,017.44	-395.78	-98.78

At the Close, Monday, November 19, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,017.44, -395.78 (-1.56%)
NASDAQ: 7,028.48, -219.40 (-3.03%)
S&P 500: 2,690.73, -45.54 (-1.66%)
NYSE Composite: 12,280.91, -119.37 (-0.96%)