What the Heck is Phugoid Dollar Funding and Why Does It Matter?

So far this week, markets have encountered a major disruption in oil supply, an interest rate cut, three repo auctions, and the usual assortment of nonsense from Washington, DC.

Through all that, stocks have barely budged, leading up to a quad-witching day on Friday, with multiple options and futures expirations expected to add some volatility to the week. If it goes anything like the prior four days, the week will end with a thud, rather than a bang.

After the Fed's unsurprising announcement to lower the federal funds rate 25 basis points on Wednesday, a third straight repo auction was held Thursday morning, offering cash settlements on another $75 billion in collateral, mostly Treasuries and MBS.

While the repos signal some cash flow issues for some unidentified primary dealer banks, cause for the cash shortfall has not been ascertained.

Perhaps, as described in the link below, it is a case of Phugoid Funding, a condition which matches up pretty well with the current out-of-kilter global economy.

In an incredibly prescient post - although from April, 2019 - from Alhambra Investments (some of the brightest minds out there) about what is happening with the ongoing liquidity crunch that has the Federal Reserve conducting three consecutive repo auctions (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), Phugoid Dollar Funding is explained in detail with an explanation of how it applies to current economic conditions.

At the Close, Thursday, September 19, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,094.79, -52.29 (-0.19%)
NASDAQ: 8,182.88, +5.49 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 3,006.79, +0.06 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 13,111.25, -8.05 (-0.06%)

Fed Cuts Rate, Markets Slightly Bearish Initially

Initial reactions to the Fed's cut of 25 basis points on the federal funds rate announced Wednesday afternoon were unusually bearish.

Not only did stocks sell off - only to be rescued by mysterious bids in the final hou of trading - but so too crude oil, gold, silver. Bonds languished, with the 10-year note down a single basis point to 1.81% yield, though shorter maturities sold off, the two-year note gaining five basis points, from 1.72 to 1.77%, threatening to invert with the 10-year again.

One-month bills reacted naturally, with yields dropping from 2.10% on Tuesday to 1.96% on Wednesday's close.

Rumors of the Fed announcing a restart of QE were dismissed. The federal funds rate was lowered to 1.75-2.00%.

The vote was seven for the cut and three against. Voting against the action were James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.50 to 1.75 percent, a 50 basis point drop; and Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2.00% percent to 2.25 percent.

The FOMC's penultimate meeting for 2019 is scheduled for October 29-30.

Considering the volatility in bonds and the unusual repo auctions held the past two days, market reaction was rather muted and refined overall. No panic was seen, though some degree of caution was notable.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 18, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,147.08, +36.28 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 8,177.39, -8.63, (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 3,006.73, +1.03 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 13,119.31, -12.09 (-0.09%)

Anticipating Federal Funds Rate Slash, Fed Conducts Repo for Cash-Strapped Banks

In case you missed it, on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve conducted a repurchasing event - known in the business as a "repo" - to inject cash into the system, which had run low on reserves.

Essentially, the primary dealers, among them the nation's largest banks, found themselves a little short on cash and needed to sell some bonds back to the Fed. In all, the Fed took back $53 billion and the system survived a rare liquidity crunch. It was the first repo auction since the great Financial Crisis of 2008.

This kind of activity may not be so rare going forward. The Financial Times reports that the Fed is holding another repo auction on Wednesday morning, offering up $75 billion in cash in exchange for various types of bonds, most typically, Treasuries or Mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

What triggered the double-dip into repo-land is the unusually high volatility in bond markets, which have been whipsawed of late. The benchmark 10-year-note, for instance, has yielded as low as 1.46% and as high as 1.90% just this month, and currently sits at a yield of 1.81%. The high rate at which bonds are turned over by the primary dealers and others may have left some banks upside down, or wrong-footed, this week.

The second repo has taken place, ending before 8:30 am, Wednesday morning.

The results were less-than-encouraging going forward. The auction was oversubscribed by $5 billion, meaning somebody has a short-term cash flow problem. The Fed offered up $75 billion and $80 was bid, so somebody didn't get what they were seeking. $5 billion is a lot of money, no matter how you slice it. This is going to show up somewhere and it won't be pretty. Prepare for bank failures at an increasing rate.

Otherwise, the markets stay relatively calm on the surface, with futures modestly in the red. At 2:00 pm ET Wednesday, the FOMC will announce their policy directive, ending a two-day meeting. They are widely expected to decrease the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from 2.00-2.25 to 1.75-2.00.

If the idea of a range, rather than a distinct point for the federal funds rate seems different, it is. The Fed used to just set the rate at a distinct point, like 2.50%, but now they issue a range. That change occurred in 2008, when they dropped the rate to zero, or actually, 0.00 to 0.25. The Fed didn't like the rate being exactly zero bacuse that would have sent a bad signal, so they changed to a range.

What really happened is that the global fiat currency economy broke in 2008. ZIRP and the various forms of QE were bandages when a splint and a cast were needed. The system is still broken, moreso than in 2008 and the injury, once a break, is now amplified with a fever, an infection, and the hospital is out of meds.

Tra-la-la.

At the Close, Tuesday, September 17, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,110.80, +33.98 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 8,186.02, +32.47 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: 3,005.70, +7.74 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 13,131.41, +23.43 (+0.18%)

Oil and Gas Price Hikes Are a Central Banker Scam

Reiterating what was posted here Sunday in the Weekend Wrap, a recent article by Lance Roberts at Real Investment Advice, brings home the bacon in detail, of how the bottom 80% of all US workers, i.e., earners, is carrying a high debt burden that today cannot even cover basic necessities.

The consumer squeeze is in focus after the attacks on a Saudi oilfield and the Abqaiq refinery, which, according to most sources, will affect five percent of global oil supply. Somehow, cutting off five percent of global supply magically raises oil prices 15 percent.

Without anybody knowing exactly who is behind the attacks, many fingers are being pointed toward Iran, naturally, since the Iranians are fighting a proxy war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen. MoonofAlabama.com has a solid account with photos of how the attack might have been staged, who was behind it and future implications.

From a central banker's perspective, the attack and subsequent rise in the global price of oil could not be more opportune on a number of fronts. First, in desperate need of inflation, the bankers get the gift of core inflation in both PPI and CPI. Second, the rise in the price of oil, translated to gas at the pump and some home heating fuel, will show up in the convoluted GDP calculations, just in time for the third quarter and also adding a boost to the fourth if high prices persist.

Further down the road, high input prices and consumer prices for oil and gas should put the brakes on the economy eventually, putting a dent in discretionary spending which could spark a recession in 2020, just in time for the November US elections. Sure, higher prices and profits are good for some, for a while, but eventually, high gas prices act effectively as a tax on all consumers.

If you happen to be a central banker, this sounds great, doesn't it?

There are also political and financial aspects to the story. The attacks come right on the heels of President Trump's firing of John Bolton, the infamous neocon whose penchant for war with Iran was no secret. Conspiracy theorists believe this was long-ago planned, but Bolton's removal as National Security Advisor to the president was the trigger.

There's also the upcoming IPO of Saudi Aramco to consider. Initially, following the attack, the Saudis hinted that they would delay their long-awaited IPO, but now, a day beyond, they say they will forge ahead as planned. At issue is valuation. The Saudis believe the company should be worth $2 trillion at IPO, while the consensus among bankers handling the deal have the figure closer to $1.5 trillion. A lasting boost in the price of oil would naturally add to the valuation, bringing it closer to the level desired by the Saudis, who, after all, have control of the flow of oil, but not the price.

With no culprit positively identified, the entire affair looks to be highly organized - from the accuracy of the missiles and/or drones employed in the attack to the coordinated record trading in the oil futures pits - and the work of people or nations with an agenda. While this may appear far fetched to some, the power of the globalist banking cartel is well-known and could be pulling all the strings behind the scenes. It is not outside the realm of possibility that deep state globalists staged the attacks and price surge. It's also possible the the attacks were completely faked, just to get the price of oil higher.

There has been a glut of global oil supply since the US embarked on its fracking and shale output, becoming the world leader a few years ago. Russia is also pumping like mad, as are most of the OPEC nations. The amount of oil on world markets is so large that even small disruptions should not affect price - which has been falling for over a year - very much, but, in this case, it did.

While there isn't much the general population as a whole can do about higher gas prices outside of mass protests (a likelihood in Europe), there are a few actions the average motorist can take.

• Plan driving trips - organize your schedule to include multiple stops, thus reducing the amount of gas used rather than making individual trips for each task
• Seek lower prices - use online resources like GasBuddy.com to find the lowest prices in your area.
• Ride-sharing - organize with neighbors, friends and co-workers to share rides heading in similar directions.
• Drive smarter - slower speeds, properly inflated tires, and good driving habits can significantly reduce your fuel usage.
• Avoid wasted trips - deciding whether or not a trip is an absolute necessity can cut your overall fuel consumption considerably.

You don't have to buy into the price panic the global banking cartel seeks to impose upon you. As an end-user, you have to power of decision and information at your fingertips to help make wise choices. Share information with your friends, relatives and co-workers. A loose band of informed citizens can thwart the intentions the central bankers. Reduced demand should result in lower prices, eventually.

Most of all, don't buy into the media hype over gas prices, recession or any other narrative (like climate change) that the media water-carriers throw at you.

At the Close, Monday, September 16, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,076.82, -142.70 (-0.52%)
NASDAQ: 8,156.40, +2.86 (+0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,994.17, -3.79 (-0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 13,107.98, -16.36 (-0.12%)

Weekend Wrap: Financial Warfare

When Mario Draghi announced on Thursday that the European Central Bank (ECB) would cut overnight lending rates an additional 10 basis points - to 0.50% - and another round of QE, markets responded with a bit of a yawn as the news had already been largely leaked and played upon.

Such are financial markets these days, wherein nobody is supposed to feel even the slightest degree of pain or anguish and central banks telegraph their every move. There's no feel to markets, especially stocks, other than that of a rigged game. Analysis is useless in the face of dovish banking motives, all coordinated and supposedly well-intentioned.

Truth of the matter is that there is a fierce financial war on over money, finance, and trade, with competition among unbacked currencies (all of them) terrific and without wane. The Europeans want to beat the US and Japan, Japan wishes to devalue against the Euro. China, clearly the world's leader in discounted exporting, parlays its wobbly currency against everybody.

Not only are nations and regions waging financial war, governments continue to stick their grubby hands into the pockets of domestic populations at an increasingly torrid pace. The level of regulations, rules, taxes, fees and tariffs has risen substantially over the past ten years, as political forces get in on the action which inflation has long forwarded. Now, deflation threatens to skew the balance more toward government confiscation of labor's remuneration. Wages have stagnated and may slow further, but the tax load will only increase, making discretionary spending for many no longer a choice, but a command imperative.

As money (more accurately, currency) becomes less available and devalued on a widespread basis, after government comes the corporate grab of every last consumer penny. Regulation in developed nations has stifled small business creation to the point of near-extinction. Instead of choice, say, along a road from a variety of local food purveyors, Americans are offered only fast foods from giant companies. It's a Big Mac, Whopper, or Wendy's or nothing.

Locally-owned and operated retail stores are being killed at an alarming rate, and with it goes choice, and with choice goes freedom. The global financial war is threatening not to just the major players, but to individuals, increasingly squeezed by forces well beyond their control.

The cartel-like Amazon-ification of retail feels the same when it comes to nearly every segment of consumer goods and services. Cell phones? Not much choice of carriers there. Data, ditto. Clothing, all the same from China, Cambodia, or other SW Asian countries where labor is cheap. Investments? If you haven't been in stocks, you're a loser, and that game will continue to separate money from former savers and younger people who delay household-making because it seems fruitless and beyond budget.

Tariffs, and Donald Trump's imposition of them, are actually a symptom of the problem, which is loosely described as crony capitalism with a hint of nationalism and monetary monopolism.

The choices for regular citizens are stark and scary. Divert funds away government (federal, state, and local) and mega-corporations, and towards friends and neighbors, barter, frugality. In developed nations, the fruits of labor are being scooped up at a rapacious rate, by big business and government, much of it before it is even in the hands of the laborer.

When more than half of your income goes to taxes, and another third to basis household costs, there isn't much left over for either saving or discretion. It's a problem that's been building since Nixon took the US off the gold standard, it's global, and it's unstoppable.

At the Close, Friday, September 13, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,219.52, +37.07 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 8,176.71, -17.75 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 3,007.39, -2.18 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 13,124.34, +8.29 (+0.06%)

For the week:
Dow: +442.06 (+1.57%)
NASDAQ: +73.64 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: +28.68 (+0.96%)
NYSE Composite: +190.96 (+1.48%)