No doubt fudged by six to eight percent, second quarter US Gross Domestic Product shrank by 32.9 percent in the quarter ended June 30, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The proximate cause not the novel coronavirus, aka COVID-19, but state governments' ordered lockdowns of businesses, citizenry and government apparatus, making the worst decline in US output wholly a self-infliceted wound.
As predicted by Downtown Magazine, the slowdown was not as severe as expectations of -34.5% by economists surveyed prior to the release.
Additionally, initial unemployment claims rose for the second week in a row, at a seasonally-adjusted 1.4 million for the week ending July 25.
The 1,434,000 claims was an uptick from the revised 1,422,000 the previous week.
Weekly claims have surpassed an unprecedented 1 million every week since March.
So, with all this wonderful news, should we continue wearing masks and keep six feet away from each other, demanding curbside pickup of fast foods, no-touchie, no-feelie schooling and another round of stimus checks from the government?
Sure, keep 'em coming, knuckleheads.
Thursday, July 30, 2020
Fed Reiterates All-In Language; Treasury Bonds Yielding All-Time Lows; 2Q GDP Up Next
As expected, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve kept rates at "near-zero" and reiterated that they would keep rates at that level until the US economy picks up, which, depending on who you ask, might be anywhere between "never" and "next quarter."
Such is the stuff of populous economics in the age of the constant panic.
The Fed's announcement on Wednesday set off yet another stock-buying spree of over-valued, highly-indebted companies, most of them listed on the major exchanges, particularly the S&P 500, which put in a solid gain of 40 points on the nose, leaving it a mere 128 points, or, less than four percent, off it's all-time closing high of 3,386.15 (February 19, 2020).
This, of course, is absolute madness. Here we are, supposedly in the midst of a pandemic which has killed over 150,000, sickened many times that, shuttered businesses, cost over 30 million jobs (that number is a moving target), and pretty much wrecked not just the US economy but that of the entire civilized world (the uncivilized parts of the world having barely noticed any changes at all).
What the stock market and the Fed are relaying via their asset-boosting measures and ever-rising stock prices is that the global economy should have a crisis of this magnitude at least once a year. Sure, some people got hurt during the February-March decline, but they are rubes, obviously not attuned to the new rigors of investing, which is to hold stocks for mere weeks or months, not years, and, in the world of those wearing big boy pants, the best trades last mere minutes.
With the S&P bottoming out at 2,237.40 on March 23rd, the gains through Wednesday amount to a windfall of just over 45 percent. Annualized, that's 135%. If sustained, that would mean your $100,000 investment would be worth $235,000 in a year, and all of this comes under zero-interest-rate-policy (ZIRP).
Easy money!
But what about bonds? We thought you'd never ask.
As of today, a one-month treasury bill yields an exciting 0.09%. The ten-year note fell to its second-lowest yield ever, at 0.58%. And, for those of you with shorter investment horizons, yields on the one, two, three, five, and seven-year notes all made historic all-time lows on Wednesday, thanks to the confidence inspired by our brave central bank. Those yields are 0.13%, 0.12%, 0.15%. 0.25%, and 0.43%. So, if you would like to lend the US federal government $10,000 for five years, they'll pay you back a whopping $25 per year or $125 in total for the privilege. And, with luck, you'll get the principal back at the end.
This does not inspire much confidence in the continued smooth operation of our federal government. It speaks volumes to the sustainability of state governments and their bloated pension obligations. (This brings up an interesting point, a little off-topic: many teachers have not been in a classroom actually teaching since March. Many of these teachers - via their unions - are complaining that they don't want to go back into a classroom to teach when the school year begins again in a few weeks. Well, teaching in a classroom isn't kind of a job, it is their job, so why are they continuing to be paid?)
For those still interested, the entire treasury complex, from one-month out to 30-years, is now covered by 113 basis points, which isn't much, just more than one percent. Basically, lending to the federal government is a losing proposition if there's any time value of money or inflation whatsoever.
Cheers! (The crowd goes wild.)
Naturally, in the face of this obvious failure of the fractional-reserve, debt-based fiat currency system currently in play, the price of gold and silver went... wait for it... down. Well, that would be on the criminal exchanges known as the futures markets, obviously overseen and controlled (we don't like to use the word "manipulated" any more, makes it sound like a conspiracy theory) by the world's greatest gangsters in the world's largest criminal skimming enterprise, the consortium of sovereign central banks.
As of this writing, gold has been tamped down five times, as has silver, but the latter to a much greater degree. Seems that while the central bank gang doesn't like gold very much (it competes with their paper currencies), they like silver even less. Silver touched $26 a few days ago, but the big boys in their fancy suits saw best to slam it back to $22.98 this morning, though it has recovered to 23.20, presently.
The spot price and futures exchanges are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Try buying any quantity of silver at anything under $27 an ounce. You'll be laughed out of the coin shop. On eBay, single ounce bars and coins are going for anywhere from $27 to $40. Morgan silver dollars (90% silver, 10% copper, 26.73 grams) are going for upwards of $35. Numismatically prized specimens can fetch hundreds of dollars.
So, we're at war. Yes, war, but no guns have been fired yet unless you include the ones that went off either accidentally or on purpose at a few of the BLM protests over the past few weeks.
The war is being waged by the seven billion people on the planet who are not in the top 1% of wealth hoarders. They are fighting the government (whatever country you're in, plus all other governments of all other countries), the central banks (ditto) and their fiat currencies, mainstream media and the "official" medical community which fails to understand the simple equation: HCQ + Zinc + Z-Pac = NO COVID.
The weapons currently employed are words, currencies (vs. real money, gold and silver), brains, street smarts and assorted pamphlets, Molotov-cocktails, laser beams, rocks, barricades, fists, batons, spit, and finger-pointing.
Judging by the number of people "voluntarily" wearing masks and staying six feet away from the nearest co-habitant of the planet, the bad guys are winning. The tide needs to be turned.
With that, a reminder that we'll be back in about an hour to report on the release of second quarter US GDP, which figures to be a doozy on several levels. Downtown Magazine's current best guess is -41%, but, knowing how Wall Street and the number massagers at the BLS and Census operate, the figure is likely to come in at a cool -30%, because, as we all are aware, that would exceed estimates of -34.5% and will thus "beat the street" and encourage even more buying of stocks. Horray for us! We're not as poor as we thought!
See you again around 8:45 am ET.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 29, 2020:
Dow: 26,539.57, +160.29 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 10,542.94, +140.85 (+1.35%)
S&P 500: 3,258.44, +40.00 (+1.24%)
NYSE: 12,669.62, +178.40 (+1.43%)
Such is the stuff of populous economics in the age of the constant panic.
The Fed's announcement on Wednesday set off yet another stock-buying spree of over-valued, highly-indebted companies, most of them listed on the major exchanges, particularly the S&P 500, which put in a solid gain of 40 points on the nose, leaving it a mere 128 points, or, less than four percent, off it's all-time closing high of 3,386.15 (February 19, 2020).
This, of course, is absolute madness. Here we are, supposedly in the midst of a pandemic which has killed over 150,000, sickened many times that, shuttered businesses, cost over 30 million jobs (that number is a moving target), and pretty much wrecked not just the US economy but that of the entire civilized world (the uncivilized parts of the world having barely noticed any changes at all).
What the stock market and the Fed are relaying via their asset-boosting measures and ever-rising stock prices is that the global economy should have a crisis of this magnitude at least once a year. Sure, some people got hurt during the February-March decline, but they are rubes, obviously not attuned to the new rigors of investing, which is to hold stocks for mere weeks or months, not years, and, in the world of those wearing big boy pants, the best trades last mere minutes.
With the S&P bottoming out at 2,237.40 on March 23rd, the gains through Wednesday amount to a windfall of just over 45 percent. Annualized, that's 135%. If sustained, that would mean your $100,000 investment would be worth $235,000 in a year, and all of this comes under zero-interest-rate-policy (ZIRP).
Easy money!
But what about bonds? We thought you'd never ask.
As of today, a one-month treasury bill yields an exciting 0.09%. The ten-year note fell to its second-lowest yield ever, at 0.58%. And, for those of you with shorter investment horizons, yields on the one, two, three, five, and seven-year notes all made historic all-time lows on Wednesday, thanks to the confidence inspired by our brave central bank. Those yields are 0.13%, 0.12%, 0.15%. 0.25%, and 0.43%. So, if you would like to lend the US federal government $10,000 for five years, they'll pay you back a whopping $25 per year or $125 in total for the privilege. And, with luck, you'll get the principal back at the end.
This does not inspire much confidence in the continued smooth operation of our federal government. It speaks volumes to the sustainability of state governments and their bloated pension obligations. (This brings up an interesting point, a little off-topic: many teachers have not been in a classroom actually teaching since March. Many of these teachers - via their unions - are complaining that they don't want to go back into a classroom to teach when the school year begins again in a few weeks. Well, teaching in a classroom isn't kind of a job, it is their job, so why are they continuing to be paid?)
For those still interested, the entire treasury complex, from one-month out to 30-years, is now covered by 113 basis points, which isn't much, just more than one percent. Basically, lending to the federal government is a losing proposition if there's any time value of money or inflation whatsoever.
Cheers! (The crowd goes wild.)
Naturally, in the face of this obvious failure of the fractional-reserve, debt-based fiat currency system currently in play, the price of gold and silver went... wait for it... down. Well, that would be on the criminal exchanges known as the futures markets, obviously overseen and controlled (we don't like to use the word "manipulated" any more, makes it sound like a conspiracy theory) by the world's greatest gangsters in the world's largest criminal skimming enterprise, the consortium of sovereign central banks.
As of this writing, gold has been tamped down five times, as has silver, but the latter to a much greater degree. Seems that while the central bank gang doesn't like gold very much (it competes with their paper currencies), they like silver even less. Silver touched $26 a few days ago, but the big boys in their fancy suits saw best to slam it back to $22.98 this morning, though it has recovered to 23.20, presently.
The spot price and futures exchanges are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Try buying any quantity of silver at anything under $27 an ounce. You'll be laughed out of the coin shop. On eBay, single ounce bars and coins are going for anywhere from $27 to $40. Morgan silver dollars (90% silver, 10% copper, 26.73 grams) are going for upwards of $35. Numismatically prized specimens can fetch hundreds of dollars.
So, we're at war. Yes, war, but no guns have been fired yet unless you include the ones that went off either accidentally or on purpose at a few of the BLM protests over the past few weeks.
The war is being waged by the seven billion people on the planet who are not in the top 1% of wealth hoarders. They are fighting the government (whatever country you're in, plus all other governments of all other countries), the central banks (ditto) and their fiat currencies, mainstream media and the "official" medical community which fails to understand the simple equation: HCQ + Zinc + Z-Pac = NO COVID.
The weapons currently employed are words, currencies (vs. real money, gold and silver), brains, street smarts and assorted pamphlets, Molotov-cocktails, laser beams, rocks, barricades, fists, batons, spit, and finger-pointing.
Judging by the number of people "voluntarily" wearing masks and staying six feet away from the nearest co-habitant of the planet, the bad guys are winning. The tide needs to be turned.
With that, a reminder that we'll be back in about an hour to report on the release of second quarter US GDP, which figures to be a doozy on several levels. Downtown Magazine's current best guess is -41%, but, knowing how Wall Street and the number massagers at the BLS and Census operate, the figure is likely to come in at a cool -30%, because, as we all are aware, that would exceed estimates of -34.5% and will thus "beat the street" and encourage even more buying of stocks. Horray for us! We're not as poor as we thought!
See you again around 8:45 am ET.
At the Close, Wednesday, July 29, 2020:
Dow: 26,539.57, +160.29 (+0.61%)
NASDAQ: 10,542.94, +140.85 (+1.35%)
S&P 500: 3,258.44, +40.00 (+1.24%)
NYSE: 12,669.62, +178.40 (+1.43%)
Wednesday, July 29, 2020
It's Time To Call Out Democrats, Media, Google, Facebook, ANTIFA and BLM for Their Fake Narrative, Censorship and Crimes
It's time to stop the destruction of America by the forces promoting COVID-19 and the protests, looting, and riots by Black Lives Matter and ANTIFA.
While it is still a matter for speculation, it's becoming very clear that the Democrat party, in conjunction with the mainstream media and information technology companies GOOGLE and FACEBOOK are pushing a narrative that is centered on the elections in November, particularly the presidential election between incumbent President Donald J. Trump and the stumbling, mumbling, former Senator from Delaware and former Vice President, Joseph H. Biden.
The Democrats in Washington, led by the likes of politicians that are far beyond their use-by dates like Nancy Pelosi (80 years old), Jerrold Nadler (73), and House Majority Leader, Steny Hoyer (81). Incidentally, Joe Biden is 77, Trump is 74, but, by all appearances, in better mental condition than his opponent.
Trump recently engaged Fox News' Chris Wallace in an hour-long interview conducted outside in Washington DC, in 90 degree heat. Trump was wearing a blue suit and tie when everybody else in the world would have donned shorts and a tank top or t-shirt. But, Trump is president and needed to look presidential, so wearing a suit was requisite. It's part of the job of being president. Not all of it is sunshine and roses. Much of it is hard. It's doubtful that Joe Biden - who repeatedly has refused to do an interview with Chris Wallace - could withstand even a quarter of the abuse, reckless accusations, investigations, and impeachment attempt that Trump has withstood.
The Democrat strategy for winning back the presidency in 2020 has been, from the start, a simple one: accuse President Trump of anything and everything, all the time, incessantly, make every event that is disturbing and wrong his fault or blame him for not handling it properly. Criticize his every move, even if you secretly agree with him.
Democrats accused Trump of colluding with Russians. That didn't work because it wasn't true. They arrested and tried a number of his top confidants. They are now going free (General Flynn and Roger Stone, most notably). They tired impeachment. Didn't work. Wasted everybody's time and money.
Since March, the planet has been gripped by the virus known as COVID-19. It was a godsend to the Democrats. It enabled them to spread fear and panic through their allies in the mainstream media, blame the Trump administration for any fallout or damage or deaths caused by the virus and government's response to it, and allowed them to sequester their candidate, Joe Biden, in his basement hideaway, out of view from the general public with an excuse for not being on the traditional campaign trail. The virus also provided a means by which they could shunt one of Trump's strongest campaign actions: large rallies.
Trump couldn't hold big rallies like he did in 2016 because the big crowds might spread the COVID. That's the narrative. And it's working. Trump has cancelled most of his public appearances and has been holding "virtual rallies" online.
While the campaigns continue in the virtual wasteland of the internet at-large, the virus, we're being told, continues to spread. Every night, the news broadcasts from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox inform us that there are record number of people inflicted with the virus in Texas, or Florida, or California. The media doesn't bother to tell anyone that the number of infections are higher due largely to increased testing - which they pushed for - or that the number of false positives from the tests is alarmingly high, or that deaths due to COVID-19 - another fudged statistic - are lower or steady.
The amount of misinformation is staggering, yet outright falsehoods and lies continue to be promoted by the mainstream media and social media tech companies, Google, Facebook, and in some instances, Twitter. It's apparently OK for people to riot and mill about in the streets of Portland, Seattle, Chicago, or Atlanta, but any campaign rally by President Trump would cause in increase in COVID afflictions.
All they want is for you and I to believe that the virus is spreading, that everybody should wear a mask, that kids shouldn't go back to school, that this virus, which is not even as deadly as the common flu for most people, will kill everybody if you don't shut down your businesses, wash your hands twenty times a day and keep six feet from everybody. Oh, but it's OK to shop at WalMart, or Walgreen's, or Target.
On Tuesday, a group known as America's Frontline Doctors held a news conference on the steps of the Supreme Court in Washington, DC. Their message was clear, their credentials impeccable. They came together to counter the mainstream media's misinformation campaign about COVID-19. Among their findings and recommendations were that schools should reopen as usual in the fall, that there is not one case of a student infecting a teacher with COVID-19 in the entire world, and that hydroxychloroquine, taken in proper dosage with zinc and azithromycin is a proven preventative to the disease. Stops it cold. More or less HCQ + Zinc + Z-PAC = NO COVID.
Their youtube video was scrubbed almost as soon as it appeared. Their website has been taken down. Please note that linked story is by "Fast Company" and is obviously biased and in Google's pocket for advertising. Even the headline, "America’s Frontline Doctors' website goes dark as platforms scramble to scrub misinformation" reeks of bias as does their narrative, such as:
Google, Facebook and other social media outlets have "policies" on what can or cannot be said or disseminated via words or photos or video about the virus. These de facto media companies have sided with the WHO and CDC, which have specific agendas and want to keep the panic and fear of the virus going until election day. That's all part of their plan and they are willing to let people die over it.
The wearing of masks is still unsettled science but Google and Facebook and the mainstream media tout it as though it is a command from God. But, when doctors talk about the success of treating patients early on in the virus with HCQ, Zinc, and Z-PAC, it's heresy, and must be removed.
It's outright censorship, and worse, it's hiding the truth from the American people about drugs that can prevent the disease from spreading. Downtown Magazine has repeatedly touted the effectiveness of HCQ and Zinc as a preventive measure. Now, front line doctors are saying the same thing.
Here's Dr. Harvey Risch, an epidemiology professor at Yale School of Public Health, telling Laura Ingraham on Fox that hydroxychloroquine could save 75,000 to 100,000 lives if the drug is widely used to treat coronavirus.
One of the doctors from America's Front Line Doctors who hasn't had his site taken down from the internet (yet), is that of Dr. James Todaro, who's site is full of information vital to the health of American citizens.
Google hasn't managed to silence him yet, but they're working on it.
It's time for Americans to stand up to the bullying of the Democrats, mainstream media, tech giants, and the likes of ANTIFA and BLM, to shout them down the same way they shout down their opponents, and start hearing the truth for a change.
We do not have to cower in fear. We do not have to stay home. We do not have to wear masks. We do not have to close down our businesses, destroy the economy, close our schools and act like brainwashed, brain-dad zombies, following every directive and order from the government.
We are a free people, and before these fascists get their way there's going to be hell to pay.
Here's Tucker Carlson's take on Google and Facebook CENSORSHIP:
At the Close, Tuesday, July 28, 2020:
Dow: 26,379.28, -205.49 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 10,402.09, -134.18 (-1.27%)
S&P 500: 3,218.44, -20.97 (-0.65%)
NYSE: 12,491.22, -61.91 (-0.49%)
While it is still a matter for speculation, it's becoming very clear that the Democrat party, in conjunction with the mainstream media and information technology companies GOOGLE and FACEBOOK are pushing a narrative that is centered on the elections in November, particularly the presidential election between incumbent President Donald J. Trump and the stumbling, mumbling, former Senator from Delaware and former Vice President, Joseph H. Biden.
The Democrats in Washington, led by the likes of politicians that are far beyond their use-by dates like Nancy Pelosi (80 years old), Jerrold Nadler (73), and House Majority Leader, Steny Hoyer (81). Incidentally, Joe Biden is 77, Trump is 74, but, by all appearances, in better mental condition than his opponent.
Trump recently engaged Fox News' Chris Wallace in an hour-long interview conducted outside in Washington DC, in 90 degree heat. Trump was wearing a blue suit and tie when everybody else in the world would have donned shorts and a tank top or t-shirt. But, Trump is president and needed to look presidential, so wearing a suit was requisite. It's part of the job of being president. Not all of it is sunshine and roses. Much of it is hard. It's doubtful that Joe Biden - who repeatedly has refused to do an interview with Chris Wallace - could withstand even a quarter of the abuse, reckless accusations, investigations, and impeachment attempt that Trump has withstood.
The Democrat strategy for winning back the presidency in 2020 has been, from the start, a simple one: accuse President Trump of anything and everything, all the time, incessantly, make every event that is disturbing and wrong his fault or blame him for not handling it properly. Criticize his every move, even if you secretly agree with him.
Democrats accused Trump of colluding with Russians. That didn't work because it wasn't true. They arrested and tried a number of his top confidants. They are now going free (General Flynn and Roger Stone, most notably). They tired impeachment. Didn't work. Wasted everybody's time and money.
Since March, the planet has been gripped by the virus known as COVID-19. It was a godsend to the Democrats. It enabled them to spread fear and panic through their allies in the mainstream media, blame the Trump administration for any fallout or damage or deaths caused by the virus and government's response to it, and allowed them to sequester their candidate, Joe Biden, in his basement hideaway, out of view from the general public with an excuse for not being on the traditional campaign trail. The virus also provided a means by which they could shunt one of Trump's strongest campaign actions: large rallies.
Trump couldn't hold big rallies like he did in 2016 because the big crowds might spread the COVID. That's the narrative. And it's working. Trump has cancelled most of his public appearances and has been holding "virtual rallies" online.
While the campaigns continue in the virtual wasteland of the internet at-large, the virus, we're being told, continues to spread. Every night, the news broadcasts from ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox inform us that there are record number of people inflicted with the virus in Texas, or Florida, or California. The media doesn't bother to tell anyone that the number of infections are higher due largely to increased testing - which they pushed for - or that the number of false positives from the tests is alarmingly high, or that deaths due to COVID-19 - another fudged statistic - are lower or steady.
The amount of misinformation is staggering, yet outright falsehoods and lies continue to be promoted by the mainstream media and social media tech companies, Google, Facebook, and in some instances, Twitter. It's apparently OK for people to riot and mill about in the streets of Portland, Seattle, Chicago, or Atlanta, but any campaign rally by President Trump would cause in increase in COVID afflictions.
All they want is for you and I to believe that the virus is spreading, that everybody should wear a mask, that kids shouldn't go back to school, that this virus, which is not even as deadly as the common flu for most people, will kill everybody if you don't shut down your businesses, wash your hands twenty times a day and keep six feet from everybody. Oh, but it's OK to shop at WalMart, or Walgreen's, or Target.
On Tuesday, a group known as America's Frontline Doctors held a news conference on the steps of the Supreme Court in Washington, DC. Their message was clear, their credentials impeccable. They came together to counter the mainstream media's misinformation campaign about COVID-19. Among their findings and recommendations were that schools should reopen as usual in the fall, that there is not one case of a student infecting a teacher with COVID-19 in the entire world, and that hydroxychloroquine, taken in proper dosage with zinc and azithromycin is a proven preventative to the disease. Stops it cold. More or less HCQ + Zinc + Z-PAC = NO COVID.
Their youtube video was scrubbed almost as soon as it appeared. Their website has been taken down. Please note that linked story is by "Fast Company" and is obviously biased and in Google's pocket for advertising. Even the headline, "America’s Frontline Doctors' website goes dark as platforms scramble to scrub misinformation" reeks of bias as does their narrative, such as:
"The video, featuring what purported to be a press conference from a group of doctors, contained what the platforms said were violations of their policies on COVID-19 misinformation. (Among the misleading or false assertions made in the video: that we don’t need to wear masks and that the Trump-touted drug hydroxychloroquine is a "cure" for COVID-19.)
Google, Facebook and other social media outlets have "policies" on what can or cannot be said or disseminated via words or photos or video about the virus. These de facto media companies have sided with the WHO and CDC, which have specific agendas and want to keep the panic and fear of the virus going until election day. That's all part of their plan and they are willing to let people die over it.
The wearing of masks is still unsettled science but Google and Facebook and the mainstream media tout it as though it is a command from God. But, when doctors talk about the success of treating patients early on in the virus with HCQ, Zinc, and Z-PAC, it's heresy, and must be removed.
It's outright censorship, and worse, it's hiding the truth from the American people about drugs that can prevent the disease from spreading. Downtown Magazine has repeatedly touted the effectiveness of HCQ and Zinc as a preventive measure. Now, front line doctors are saying the same thing.
Here's Dr. Harvey Risch, an epidemiology professor at Yale School of Public Health, telling Laura Ingraham on Fox that hydroxychloroquine could save 75,000 to 100,000 lives if the drug is widely used to treat coronavirus.
One of the doctors from America's Front Line Doctors who hasn't had his site taken down from the internet (yet), is that of Dr. James Todaro, who's site is full of information vital to the health of American citizens.
Google hasn't managed to silence him yet, but they're working on it.
It's time for Americans to stand up to the bullying of the Democrats, mainstream media, tech giants, and the likes of ANTIFA and BLM, to shout them down the same way they shout down their opponents, and start hearing the truth for a change.
We do not have to cower in fear. We do not have to stay home. We do not have to wear masks. We do not have to close down our businesses, destroy the economy, close our schools and act like brainwashed, brain-dad zombies, following every directive and order from the government.
We are a free people, and before these fascists get their way there's going to be hell to pay.
Here's Tucker Carlson's take on Google and Facebook CENSORSHIP:
At the Close, Tuesday, July 28, 2020:
Dow: 26,379.28, -205.49 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 10,402.09, -134.18 (-1.27%)
S&P 500: 3,218.44, -20.97 (-0.65%)
NYSE: 12,491.22, -61.91 (-0.49%)
Tuesday, July 28, 2020
Gold and Silver Well Engaged in the War Against Fiat Currencies
Since March of this year, gold have silver have made steady, if not spectacular gains in the face of the COVID pandemic, government shutdowns, media sensationalism, and international protests over racial injustice and wealth inequality.
Being safe havens in times of panic, price appreciation in the precious metals was expected, but the degrees by which both gold and silver have gained were only exacerbated by the fear narrative promulgated from government and media sources. Emergency measures taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks and government "pandemic relief" packages approved by the US federal government and others around the world added to the allure of coins, bars, and jewelry made of shiny metals.
When the stock market crashed from February into March, the rush out of stocks took down the price of gold and silver with it. After all, we can't have real money maintaining value when the world's fiat economies are failing, can we? None the less, while the equity markets have rebounded nicely, the performances of gold and silver overshadow them. Mid-March, gold bottomed out at $1471.40 an ounce on the spot market. In the four months hence, it has ripped ahead, surpassing the previous all-time high against the US dollar this past Friday. On Monday, investors put their stamp of approval on the higher price regime by sending gold to a close in New York at $1943.00, though most of the gains were made overnight in Hong Kong and Shanghai markets.
Overnight, gold shot up again in Far East trading, vaulting above $1980.00 before being viciously slammed down in two short selling raids to a low of 1907.70. The smackdown took little time as has always been the case in these late night, early morning raids. The forces of fiat hegemony have few bounds, and the price of precious metals was getting a bit out of hand for their tastes, apparently.
Hard core gold bulls have been calling for a pullback - and another buying opportunity - and the overnight raids may have played right into their hands. Gold demand is not waning in the least and a price that's a little bit lower will only add to the gold rush that has been forming over the past year. The price hammering won't matter much at all in the long run - or even the short run. Taking the gold price down by five percent in two overt market actions is not going to deter anybody intent on acquiring physical metal. Besides, premiums range anywhere from $35 to $100 over the spot price, so anybody wanting to buy gold at the current spot or futures price ($1935.20 as of this writing) is going to pay the price it had risen to overnight in any case.
Thus, gold being on sale due to futures market mechanisms or manipulations will have little to bear on the real world. Perhaps when gold is selling for $2500 an ounce (within 6-12 months, almost for sure) the powers that be (for now) will try to send it careening south of $2000. That would be a real pullback that would take months, not minutes, to execute and certainly one that would not go unanswered by all interested parties, including the BIS, central banks, gold and precious metal funds, individual investors, and family trusts. It's likely that there will be wild gyrations in the price of gold as national currencies like the dollar, yen, pound, and euro are reduced to their intrinsic value, zero.
As for silver, the rise from the depths of March (11.94 an ounce) was nothing short of spectacular, the gain more than 100% to Monday's close at $24.62. It too ramped higher overnight, reaching $26.00 per ounce in Hong Kong before the same forces that took down gold put the hammer to silver, knocking it as low as $22.36.
The rise and fall in the price of silver is sadistic in a way. The last time gold set a record high was back in 2011. At that time, silver was $48 an ounce. When gold rocketed up on Monday, silver was roughly half of what it was nine years ago. As the phrase goes, silver has some "catching up" to do.
Being that silver is a much smaller market and the price about 1/80th that of gold, it's attraction to the masses is unmistakable. It's a metal and source of wealth that is obtainable by many, which makes it a natural target for the wealth hoarders and paper-chasers of the world. Expect the swings in silver to be even more wild than those in the gold or equity markets as the destruction of the global economy and fiat currencies commences over the coming months. Priced at $23.86 at this writing, silver is down only 85 cents from Monday's New York close. However, as is the case with gold, buyers are more than willing to pay outrageous premiums for delivery. One ounce bars and coins will continue to fly off eBay - the only place right now one can reliably buy silver with delivery guaranteed in under a week - at $32 and up. There's no stopping the physical market. No matter what happens in the spot or futures market, the real world will more than compensate with high premiums on restricted supply.
Tuesday morning's overnight raids notwithstanding, the recent rise of gold and silver as alternatives to fiat currencies is only the beginning of a fight that is destined to end with one side victorious, the other in tatters. Having had their way for decades, the central banks are fighting a losing battle, creating trillions in unbacked new currency to appease the wanton desires of both the wealthy and downtrodden.
Nobody likes fraud, and that is exactly what central banks have committed.
At the Close, Monday, July 27, 2020:
Dow: 26,584.77, +114.88 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 10,536.27, +173.09 (+1.67%)
S&P 500: 3,239.41, +23.78 (+0.74%)
NYSE: 12,553.13, +91.35 (+0.73%)
Being safe havens in times of panic, price appreciation in the precious metals was expected, but the degrees by which both gold and silver have gained were only exacerbated by the fear narrative promulgated from government and media sources. Emergency measures taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks and government "pandemic relief" packages approved by the US federal government and others around the world added to the allure of coins, bars, and jewelry made of shiny metals.
When the stock market crashed from February into March, the rush out of stocks took down the price of gold and silver with it. After all, we can't have real money maintaining value when the world's fiat economies are failing, can we? None the less, while the equity markets have rebounded nicely, the performances of gold and silver overshadow them. Mid-March, gold bottomed out at $1471.40 an ounce on the spot market. In the four months hence, it has ripped ahead, surpassing the previous all-time high against the US dollar this past Friday. On Monday, investors put their stamp of approval on the higher price regime by sending gold to a close in New York at $1943.00, though most of the gains were made overnight in Hong Kong and Shanghai markets.
Overnight, gold shot up again in Far East trading, vaulting above $1980.00 before being viciously slammed down in two short selling raids to a low of 1907.70. The smackdown took little time as has always been the case in these late night, early morning raids. The forces of fiat hegemony have few bounds, and the price of precious metals was getting a bit out of hand for their tastes, apparently.
Hard core gold bulls have been calling for a pullback - and another buying opportunity - and the overnight raids may have played right into their hands. Gold demand is not waning in the least and a price that's a little bit lower will only add to the gold rush that has been forming over the past year. The price hammering won't matter much at all in the long run - or even the short run. Taking the gold price down by five percent in two overt market actions is not going to deter anybody intent on acquiring physical metal. Besides, premiums range anywhere from $35 to $100 over the spot price, so anybody wanting to buy gold at the current spot or futures price ($1935.20 as of this writing) is going to pay the price it had risen to overnight in any case.
Thus, gold being on sale due to futures market mechanisms or manipulations will have little to bear on the real world. Perhaps when gold is selling for $2500 an ounce (within 6-12 months, almost for sure) the powers that be (for now) will try to send it careening south of $2000. That would be a real pullback that would take months, not minutes, to execute and certainly one that would not go unanswered by all interested parties, including the BIS, central banks, gold and precious metal funds, individual investors, and family trusts. It's likely that there will be wild gyrations in the price of gold as national currencies like the dollar, yen, pound, and euro are reduced to their intrinsic value, zero.
As for silver, the rise from the depths of March (11.94 an ounce) was nothing short of spectacular, the gain more than 100% to Monday's close at $24.62. It too ramped higher overnight, reaching $26.00 per ounce in Hong Kong before the same forces that took down gold put the hammer to silver, knocking it as low as $22.36.
The rise and fall in the price of silver is sadistic in a way. The last time gold set a record high was back in 2011. At that time, silver was $48 an ounce. When gold rocketed up on Monday, silver was roughly half of what it was nine years ago. As the phrase goes, silver has some "catching up" to do.
Being that silver is a much smaller market and the price about 1/80th that of gold, it's attraction to the masses is unmistakable. It's a metal and source of wealth that is obtainable by many, which makes it a natural target for the wealth hoarders and paper-chasers of the world. Expect the swings in silver to be even more wild than those in the gold or equity markets as the destruction of the global economy and fiat currencies commences over the coming months. Priced at $23.86 at this writing, silver is down only 85 cents from Monday's New York close. However, as is the case with gold, buyers are more than willing to pay outrageous premiums for delivery. One ounce bars and coins will continue to fly off eBay - the only place right now one can reliably buy silver with delivery guaranteed in under a week - at $32 and up. There's no stopping the physical market. No matter what happens in the spot or futures market, the real world will more than compensate with high premiums on restricted supply.
Tuesday morning's overnight raids notwithstanding, the recent rise of gold and silver as alternatives to fiat currencies is only the beginning of a fight that is destined to end with one side victorious, the other in tatters. Having had their way for decades, the central banks are fighting a losing battle, creating trillions in unbacked new currency to appease the wanton desires of both the wealthy and downtrodden.
Nobody likes fraud, and that is exactly what central banks have committed.
At the Close, Monday, July 27, 2020:
Dow: 26,584.77, +114.88 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 10,536.27, +173.09 (+1.67%)
S&P 500: 3,239.41, +23.78 (+0.74%)
NYSE: 12,553.13, +91.35 (+0.73%)
Sunday, July 26, 2020
WEEKEND WRAP: US Dollar Scorched As Gold, Silver Shine; Bonds Bid, Stocks Flat, Oil Up
Shifting forces were at work the second last week of July, and while the winds of change didn't quite blow stocks away, the dollar's value, precious metals and bond yields saw wild swings.
Bloomberg's dollar index finished the week at 94.435, edging below the level seen at the trough of the March stock market lows (94.895), and lower for the year (96.389, 12/31/19). It was also the lowest recorded reading since September 2018 (94.220).
While the dollar may have been reeling against competing fiat currencies, it was dealt a knockdown blow by precious metals, especially silver, which had it's best week in more than 40 years. Spot Silver closed at 19.33 per ounce on July 17, traded as high as 23.00 on July 22 before settling into a close at 22.77 on the 24th, a gain of 17.80% in just five trading days.
Gold was also making headlines, with spot gold closing out the week at 1,902.02, a record closing price, surpassing the previous high in US$ of 1895.60 from 2011. While the dollar's weakness was a contributing factor in the rise of precious metals, it wasn't the only one. Continued strong demand, which many dealers are calling "unprecedented", massive purchases by the gold and silver ETF funds, and shortages due to mining shutdowns over the past four months have all been weighing on gold and silver prices.
With faith in fiat currencies and the governments that rule by them weakening, gold, silver, and other hard assets are beginning to be looked upon more favorably as the global economy melts away, multi-national protests persist, and unemployment rages. The first rise in initial weekly US unemployment claims in nearly four months sent shock waves across markets and had a dampening effect on stocks in particular.
WTI crude oil, which had remained moored around the $40/barrel mark for most of the month, was bid slightly higher during the week, closing above $41 for the first time since March. Producers, desperate for higher prices see the falling dollar as an aid to their plight. Global prices are in flux, especially with China buying directly from many producers, including Russia and Iran, bypassing the long-standing dollar hegemony completely. If the dollar continues to decline, the price of oil will certainly rise, affecting just about every finished product in some manner. The condition appears ripe for $50 oil and $2.00 gas at the pump though seasonal demand could keep a lid on prices through the fall.
Treasury yields fell on the long end, with the 30-year taking the brunt of the action, closing out the week at 1.23%, a decline of a full 10 basis points from the previous Friday reading. The benchmark 10-year note slipped from 0.64% to 0.59%, and persisted through Thursday and Friday at that level. Even the one-month maturity bill fell from 0.11 to 0.10%, cramming the entire complex into a 113 basis point box.
The shift in sentiment from bullish on stocks to mildly bearish was, in the main, attributable to the decimation in second quarter earnings as companies lost ground across the equity spectrum. Tech, energy, finance, consumer, and industrial sectors were all affected by the shutdowns and stay-at-home orders prevalent during the second quarter and that was reflected in some very dismal reports, especially from banks and finance stocks, which were forced to add significantly to credit loss reserves over the quarter.
With the reopening of most state economies in the US, there was hope for some relief and a return to pre-COVID conditions, but the recent rise of infections in many states has caused a reversal of the reopening protocols and has tempered enthusiasm for a quick recovery. The COVID crisis seems to have a long-lasting effect, not just on people's health but on the economy in general. The outlook for the fall is not particularly promising either.
Wrapping up this Weekend Wrap, here are the most current prices - including shipping - for select precious metal items on eBay:
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 27.11 / 46.85 / 35.34 / 34.97
1 oz silver bar: 28.00 / 51.95 / 34.33 / 33.75
1 oz gold coin: 1,850.00 / 2,045.42 / 1,982.27 / 1,995.10
1 oz gold bar: 1,985.22 / 2,019.69 / 2,006.68 / 2,010.15
At the Close, Friday, July 24, 2020:
Dow: 26,469.89, -182.44 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 10,363.18, -98.24 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 3,215.63, -20.03 (-0.62%)
NYSE: 12,461.78, -49.09 (-0.39%)
For the Week:
Dow: -202.06 (-0.76%)
NASDAQ: -140.01 (1.33%)
S&P 500: -9.10 (-0.28%)
NYSE: +59.04 (+0.48%)
Bloomberg's dollar index finished the week at 94.435, edging below the level seen at the trough of the March stock market lows (94.895), and lower for the year (96.389, 12/31/19). It was also the lowest recorded reading since September 2018 (94.220).
While the dollar may have been reeling against competing fiat currencies, it was dealt a knockdown blow by precious metals, especially silver, which had it's best week in more than 40 years. Spot Silver closed at 19.33 per ounce on July 17, traded as high as 23.00 on July 22 before settling into a close at 22.77 on the 24th, a gain of 17.80% in just five trading days.
Gold was also making headlines, with spot gold closing out the week at 1,902.02, a record closing price, surpassing the previous high in US$ of 1895.60 from 2011. While the dollar's weakness was a contributing factor in the rise of precious metals, it wasn't the only one. Continued strong demand, which many dealers are calling "unprecedented", massive purchases by the gold and silver ETF funds, and shortages due to mining shutdowns over the past four months have all been weighing on gold and silver prices.
With faith in fiat currencies and the governments that rule by them weakening, gold, silver, and other hard assets are beginning to be looked upon more favorably as the global economy melts away, multi-national protests persist, and unemployment rages. The first rise in initial weekly US unemployment claims in nearly four months sent shock waves across markets and had a dampening effect on stocks in particular.
WTI crude oil, which had remained moored around the $40/barrel mark for most of the month, was bid slightly higher during the week, closing above $41 for the first time since March. Producers, desperate for higher prices see the falling dollar as an aid to their plight. Global prices are in flux, especially with China buying directly from many producers, including Russia and Iran, bypassing the long-standing dollar hegemony completely. If the dollar continues to decline, the price of oil will certainly rise, affecting just about every finished product in some manner. The condition appears ripe for $50 oil and $2.00 gas at the pump though seasonal demand could keep a lid on prices through the fall.
Treasury yields fell on the long end, with the 30-year taking the brunt of the action, closing out the week at 1.23%, a decline of a full 10 basis points from the previous Friday reading. The benchmark 10-year note slipped from 0.64% to 0.59%, and persisted through Thursday and Friday at that level. Even the one-month maturity bill fell from 0.11 to 0.10%, cramming the entire complex into a 113 basis point box.
The shift in sentiment from bullish on stocks to mildly bearish was, in the main, attributable to the decimation in second quarter earnings as companies lost ground across the equity spectrum. Tech, energy, finance, consumer, and industrial sectors were all affected by the shutdowns and stay-at-home orders prevalent during the second quarter and that was reflected in some very dismal reports, especially from banks and finance stocks, which were forced to add significantly to credit loss reserves over the quarter.
With the reopening of most state economies in the US, there was hope for some relief and a return to pre-COVID conditions, but the recent rise of infections in many states has caused a reversal of the reopening protocols and has tempered enthusiasm for a quick recovery. The COVID crisis seems to have a long-lasting effect, not just on people's health but on the economy in general. The outlook for the fall is not particularly promising either.
Wrapping up this Weekend Wrap, here are the most current prices - including shipping - for select precious metal items on eBay:
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 27.11 / 46.85 / 35.34 / 34.97
1 oz silver bar: 28.00 / 51.95 / 34.33 / 33.75
1 oz gold coin: 1,850.00 / 2,045.42 / 1,982.27 / 1,995.10
1 oz gold bar: 1,985.22 / 2,019.69 / 2,006.68 / 2,010.15
At the Close, Friday, July 24, 2020:
Dow: 26,469.89, -182.44 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 10,363.18, -98.24 (-0.94%)
S&P 500: 3,215.63, -20.03 (-0.62%)
NYSE: 12,461.78, -49.09 (-0.39%)
For the Week:
Dow: -202.06 (-0.76%)
NASDAQ: -140.01 (1.33%)
S&P 500: -9.10 (-0.28%)
NYSE: +59.04 (+0.48%)
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