While the prices of gold and silver take a beating in the futures market, two weeks out from the wanton slaughter (8/11) and a week since the infamous Money Daily post declaring their historic comeback (8/18), the past week has seen a nearly continuous dilution in the price of both metals, for no apparent good reason.
Gold and silver continue to be in high demand and short supply. Perhaps the supply issues are not as pronounced as they were at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic scare, but they are still pre-eminent, demonstrated by continued high dealer premiums, quantity limits, and shipping delays. It's been a harrowing time for dealers trying to keep up with demand while at the same time attempting to stay profitable. Wild price swings render their operations unwieldy and difficult. Stability might serve them - and the buying pubic - better.
As the prices of both metals soared and then soured, the question of value has to come to mind, if only to allay fears that recent buying might not be found to be in vain. Buyers from dealers and open markets such as eBay are still paying premiums, and those open market buyers are getting delivery at a faster pace. Price is always and everywhere a prime consideration, so seriously, how much is an ounce of gold really worth?
For the purposes of this exercise - the first of its kind (with hopefully many more to come) - let's put aside the arguments over the inflated value of fiat currencies and other considerations centered on floating values as are the major currencies in use today. They are a measurement tool for now. Nothing more, nothing less, and are handy for the purpose of determining a price point for gold, and by extension, everything.
The world's know gold supply is roughly 200,000 tons. That's a rough estimate, but useful, even if somewhat inaccurate, in this arguably simplistic quest for valuation. 200,000 tons is equivalent to 6,400,000,000 (six billion, four hundred thousand) ounces. One ton equates to 32,000 ounces, and that's standard, not troy, but the numbers are good enough for this exercise. That's roughly how much gold has been mined and is in somebody's hands, or in vaults, central bank reserves, etc.
Now, there are nearly eight billion people living on planet Earth. That's a number that can change, and with it, so too should the price of gold. If the natural path of civilization - or, what's left of it - continues, the gorwth of the world's population is calculable and that should be a contributing factor to pricing gold because in the end, it's people who should own gold, especially if it's going to be regarded as currency, and, yes, it should be global.
So, we have 6.4 billion ounces of gold and 7.8 billion people, which is not enough gold for even every person to own one ounce. If that should become a standard (1 ounce per person), that would necessitate using a divisor to determine price and that same divisor could be and should be adjusted at some set schedule, be it continuously (a dangerous prospect, prone to manipulation and gaming) or monthly, quarterly, or annually.
It should be kept in mind that gold production will also increase the amount of proven gold above ground, so it is possible that the divisor would be somewhat constant, as gold production - as we can clearly see from the numbers - roughly keeps pace with population growth.
In an entirely egalitarian environment, everybody would have one ounce of gold. When a person died, that ounce would be handed down to the next newborn, and that process would be repeated constantly, globally. While that's an impractical scenario, it serves the purpose of this experiment.
So, the divisor for one ounce of gold per person on the planet would be a single, simple equation, the number of ounces of gold, divided by the global population, or, presently, 6.4(B)/7.8(B) = 0.82.
The next step would be to determine at what level - in some currency, be it yen, euro, dollar, pound, etc. - an ounce of gold would be reasonably worth.
Let's arbitrarily determine that human life is worth something, anything, remembering that fiat currencies are wildly inflated in value as opposed to purchasing power. Let's say an ounce of gold would be equivalent to a down payment on a modest, 1000 square foot house and let's assume the price of such a house in the US would be $100,000, requiring a 20% down payment, or $20,000.
Then, we take our completely arbitrary figure of $20,000 and apply the divisor, thus ($20,000 X 0.82) to arrive at a price for one ounce of gold. Our result is $16,400, and that price would then be the global standard which could be used as a determinant for everything else, such as silver, which, using one of the time-honored ratios of either 16:1 or 12:1 or even 10:1, depending on how one calculates the overground global supply of silver, would be either $1025, $1367, or $1640, respectively.
Bear in mind that this is just a mind exercise. It does not mean that gold should be $16,400 an ounce or that silver should be $1000 an ounce or anything else. It does point up that gold at $2000 and silver at $26 per ounce seems a bit on the short side. Using our derived method, at that price, one would be putting down $2000 on a house with a value of a mere $10,000, which might be enough for a shanty hut in the outer regions of Indonesia, but hardly suitable for living quarters in New York city, Marseille, France, or even rural Iowa.
Of course, there can be more variables, or other determinants. One could calculate the price of gold as compared to the price of a live chicken, for example, or use any other widely-used commodity as a relation. What's a hammer priced in gold? A watch, an iPhone, a window, a fattened cow... The possibilities are endless, but what's essential is some form of standard beyond faith in a floating currency which has no intrinsic value. We could have a gold-iPhone standard, a chicken-gold standard, even a acreage-silver standard.
A straight gold standard with silver as a useful currency is reasonable and actually practical.
Hope you enjoyed this little experiment. Arguably, this exercise was done hastily and with many arbitrary and changeable numbers. There could be errors, but the point is that a better means must be devised for valuation of all things. The era of fiat money, created out of thin air, at interest, is coming to an end. It is imperative that some other form of measurement be established to bring global order. Gold serves this purpose as an ultimate arbiter of value, given that a reasonable and reliable value can be put upon it itself.
Come back soon. This was hopefully illustrative and promise to do more.
At the Close, Monday, August 24, 2020:
Dow: 28,308.46, +378.13 (+1.35%)
NASDAQ: 11,379.72, +67.92 (+0.60%)
S&P 500: 3,431.28, +34.12 (+1.00%)
NYSE: 12,972.88, +163.81 (+1.28%)
Tuesday, August 25, 2020
Sunday, August 23, 2020
WEEKEND WRAP: Superficial Stability In Markets Mask Advancing Underlying Economic Issues
Wildfires are raging across the state of California, devastating hundreds of thousands of acres of land, buildings, homes, ruining lives, killing farm animals and wildlife.
While the natural disaster besieging the Golden State, the man-made disaster forwarded by Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York city mayor Bill De Blasio is wreaking havoc in the Empire State.
People are fleeing the Big Apple in record numbers as crime statistics have gone through the roof. Many people are afraid to leave their homes or apartments at night in the city. More than 13,000 apartments are now vacant in the city's five boroughs, the most in 14 years and the trend continues as violent crime spirals out of control. Last week, there were a reported 60+ shootings in the city, leaving 76 people injured.
All of New York's cultural attractions, from Broadway shows, to art galleries and museums, to Lincoln Center have been closed since March. Most restaurants and bars are closed. Those that have managed to reopen can only allow outside dining. According to the state liquor authority, dancing has been banned at bars and social gatherings, even wedding receptions. Ticketed or advertised live entertainment has been banned statewide. Comedians have been barred from performing.
All of this is the response from out-of-touch politicians, Andrew Cuomo and Bill De Blasio, who are killing the state and the city economically and socially. Food banks are overwhelmed, just trying to keep up with burgeoning demand as layoffs and business closures have thrust thousands into poverty. New York’s top property owners and managers are lobbying some of the city’s biggest employers -- including the likes of Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and BlackRock -- to speed up the return of workers, but only about a quarter of workers at the 146 major employers in the city are expected back by year-end, and roughly half by next summer.
With many companies realizing the multitude of advantages of having employees at remote locations, i.e, working from home (reduced office space rent, fewer managers needed, less wasted office socializing), its possible that up to 35% of distanced workers will not be returning to the skyscrapers of Manhattan and the other borough any time soon. The strain on commercial landlords, and in turn, mortgage payments and tax receipts will have a long-lasting negative effect on the vibrancy of New York and other large city business districts.
While the official statistics say 32,000 people died from the coronavirus, New York's response to the disease is likely to kill many more. Similar circumstances are playing out in big cities across America.
That's the real story of the pandemic. Cities like New York, Chicago, Seattle, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Houston, Portland, and elsewhere are teetering on the verge of financial insolvency. Social unrest throughout the summer, highlighted by violent protests, looting, arson, and rioting, have led to police forces being neutered, many cops retiring early or leaving for work in other places. Large cities are fast becoming free-fire zones, with hoodlums and criminals operating without much in the way of deterrent. Assaults are becoming common, as are holdups, burglaries, rapes and shootings. The level of violence in some cities is unprecedented.
Meanwhile, sleepy Wall Street had another ho-hum week, its second in a row. With the Dow flatter than a pancake, the S&P and NYSE traded gains and losses of 0.72%. Only the NASDAQ showed any sign of life, rising another 2.65% to multiple record closes.
Retesting support, gold and silver lost a bit of their luster during the week. Spot gold fell from $1945.12 per ounce the prior Friday to close slightly lower, at $1940.48 on the 21st of August. Silver actually gained marginally, rising from $26.45 to $26.79 on Friday's close.
Oil prices continue to gradually rise. WTI crude oil on the NYMEX saw its highest price per barrel in five months, trading as high as $42.93 before settling out at $42.34.
Treasuries rallied following the prior week's blood-letting. Yield on the 30-year bond fell 10 basis points to 1.35%, while the 10-year note shed five bips, to 0.64%. 2s-30s steepened to 119 basis points, with all of the action on the long end. 2-year yields have been stuck between 0.13 and 0.16 for two weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed has been sopping up every loose fixed income security it finds, especially corporate high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) bonds.
According to Bloomberg, "US corporate investment-grade issuance reached a record $1.346 trillion Monday, surpassing 2017’s full-year total in less than eight months." Companies binging on cheap credit threatens to put a lid on any nascent recovery in the US economy as more money will be directed at paying off debt than expanding business facilities or re-hiring laid-off workers.
The dollar's role as the global reserve currency, long viewed by market participants as "conspiracy theory" or other disingenuous terms, now has some real numbers to back the claim that the US is no longer viewed as the only dominant currency in the world. According to the Financial Times, "in the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50% for the first time on record… The greenback was used for only 46% of settlements between the two countries. At the same time, the euro made up an all-time high of 30%, while their national currencies accounted for 24%, also a new high."
The story remains the same, however, in the precious metals space. Limited supply and incessant demand have kept premiums elevated. The most recent prices on eBay in our weekly survey (including shipping) are listed below and on our historical survey page with prices of the same items starting in April, when Money Daily began tracking:
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 31.00 / 38.99 / 35.06 / 35.00
1 oz silver bar: 28.99 / 43.98 / 36.32 / 35.95
1 oz gold coin: 1,898.99 / 2,306.00 / 2,105.96 / 2,099.63
1 oz gold bar: 2,004.75 / 2,161.14 / 2,063.90 / 2,061.95
What can be gleaned from these prices pad is that silver is still carrying, on average, a premium of roughly eight to nine dollars over spot, and gold's premium is over $150 for one-ounce coins which appear to be in shorter supply this week, and $120 beyond spot for silver bars. Numismatics and collectibles, never represented in the Money Daily sampling, are approaching astronomical levels.
Closing out this edition of the WEEKEND WRAP, it appears that Meredith Whitney, who predicted a municipal bond blowout on CBS' 60 Minutes back in December of 2010, saying there would be "50 to 100 sizable defaults" in the U.S. municipal market in the coming year, totaling "hundreds of billions of dollars."
Whitney may be guilty of being too far ahead of her time, which Howard Marks, chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group LLC famously said in 2007, "is indistinguishable from being wrong."
This year, more than 50 municipal-bond issues worth $5 billion have defaulted, the most since 2011, according to Municipal Market Analytics. Whitney was right about muni defaults a decade ago; she just had the magnitude wrong. With interest rates surrounding the zero-bound globally, the muni market is stressed out to the point at which no muni issuance of 30 years or less offers a yield of more than two percent.
While munis are tax-free, combined with the real, growing possibility of default (i.e., as if getting minimal return on your money wasn't insult enough, you may not get a return of your money, the ultimate injury) and low interest rates, they may not be making as much sense for the high-income investors as corporates might. It's a matter of risk preference and tax brackets. Airports and cities, the main drivers of municipal bond issuance, are suffering like never before, a condition that is not likely to find resolution soon or soon enough to bail out the muni bond market.
Well, channeling both Peter Falk as Columbo and Steve Jobs as himself, "just one more thing..."
Legendary investor Jim Rogers expounds upon current and future economic conditions, investing in what you know best, what peasants always do, and the importance of due diligence in the video below.
At the Close, Friday, August 21, 2020:
Dow: 27,930.33, +190.60 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 11,311.80, +46.85 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 3,397.16, +11.65 (+0.34%)
NYSE: 12,809.07, -3.79 (-0.03%)
For the Week:
Dow: -0.69 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: +292.50 (+2.65%)
S&P 500: +24.31, (+0.72%)
NYSE: -93.43 (-0.72%)
While the natural disaster besieging the Golden State, the man-made disaster forwarded by Governor Andrew Cuomo and New York city mayor Bill De Blasio is wreaking havoc in the Empire State.
People are fleeing the Big Apple in record numbers as crime statistics have gone through the roof. Many people are afraid to leave their homes or apartments at night in the city. More than 13,000 apartments are now vacant in the city's five boroughs, the most in 14 years and the trend continues as violent crime spirals out of control. Last week, there were a reported 60+ shootings in the city, leaving 76 people injured.
All of New York's cultural attractions, from Broadway shows, to art galleries and museums, to Lincoln Center have been closed since March. Most restaurants and bars are closed. Those that have managed to reopen can only allow outside dining. According to the state liquor authority, dancing has been banned at bars and social gatherings, even wedding receptions. Ticketed or advertised live entertainment has been banned statewide. Comedians have been barred from performing.
All of this is the response from out-of-touch politicians, Andrew Cuomo and Bill De Blasio, who are killing the state and the city economically and socially. Food banks are overwhelmed, just trying to keep up with burgeoning demand as layoffs and business closures have thrust thousands into poverty. New York’s top property owners and managers are lobbying some of the city’s biggest employers -- including the likes of Goldman Sachs, Blackstone and BlackRock -- to speed up the return of workers, but only about a quarter of workers at the 146 major employers in the city are expected back by year-end, and roughly half by next summer.
With many companies realizing the multitude of advantages of having employees at remote locations, i.e, working from home (reduced office space rent, fewer managers needed, less wasted office socializing), its possible that up to 35% of distanced workers will not be returning to the skyscrapers of Manhattan and the other borough any time soon. The strain on commercial landlords, and in turn, mortgage payments and tax receipts will have a long-lasting negative effect on the vibrancy of New York and other large city business districts.
While the official statistics say 32,000 people died from the coronavirus, New York's response to the disease is likely to kill many more. Similar circumstances are playing out in big cities across America.
That's the real story of the pandemic. Cities like New York, Chicago, Seattle, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Houston, Portland, and elsewhere are teetering on the verge of financial insolvency. Social unrest throughout the summer, highlighted by violent protests, looting, arson, and rioting, have led to police forces being neutered, many cops retiring early or leaving for work in other places. Large cities are fast becoming free-fire zones, with hoodlums and criminals operating without much in the way of deterrent. Assaults are becoming common, as are holdups, burglaries, rapes and shootings. The level of violence in some cities is unprecedented.
Meanwhile, sleepy Wall Street had another ho-hum week, its second in a row. With the Dow flatter than a pancake, the S&P and NYSE traded gains and losses of 0.72%. Only the NASDAQ showed any sign of life, rising another 2.65% to multiple record closes.
Retesting support, gold and silver lost a bit of their luster during the week. Spot gold fell from $1945.12 per ounce the prior Friday to close slightly lower, at $1940.48 on the 21st of August. Silver actually gained marginally, rising from $26.45 to $26.79 on Friday's close.
Oil prices continue to gradually rise. WTI crude oil on the NYMEX saw its highest price per barrel in five months, trading as high as $42.93 before settling out at $42.34.
Treasuries rallied following the prior week's blood-letting. Yield on the 30-year bond fell 10 basis points to 1.35%, while the 10-year note shed five bips, to 0.64%. 2s-30s steepened to 119 basis points, with all of the action on the long end. 2-year yields have been stuck between 0.13 and 0.16 for two weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed has been sopping up every loose fixed income security it finds, especially corporate high yield (HY) and investment grade (IG) bonds.
According to Bloomberg, "US corporate investment-grade issuance reached a record $1.346 trillion Monday, surpassing 2017’s full-year total in less than eight months." Companies binging on cheap credit threatens to put a lid on any nascent recovery in the US economy as more money will be directed at paying off debt than expanding business facilities or re-hiring laid-off workers.
The dollar's role as the global reserve currency, long viewed by market participants as "conspiracy theory" or other disingenuous terms, now has some real numbers to back the claim that the US is no longer viewed as the only dominant currency in the world. According to the Financial Times, "in the first quarter of 2020, the dollar’s share of trade between Russia and China fell below 50% for the first time on record… The greenback was used for only 46% of settlements between the two countries. At the same time, the euro made up an all-time high of 30%, while their national currencies accounted for 24%, also a new high."
The story remains the same, however, in the precious metals space. Limited supply and incessant demand have kept premiums elevated. The most recent prices on eBay in our weekly survey (including shipping) are listed below and on our historical survey page with prices of the same items starting in April, when Money Daily began tracking:
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 31.00 / 38.99 / 35.06 / 35.00
1 oz silver bar: 28.99 / 43.98 / 36.32 / 35.95
1 oz gold coin: 1,898.99 / 2,306.00 / 2,105.96 / 2,099.63
1 oz gold bar: 2,004.75 / 2,161.14 / 2,063.90 / 2,061.95
What can be gleaned from these prices pad is that silver is still carrying, on average, a premium of roughly eight to nine dollars over spot, and gold's premium is over $150 for one-ounce coins which appear to be in shorter supply this week, and $120 beyond spot for silver bars. Numismatics and collectibles, never represented in the Money Daily sampling, are approaching astronomical levels.
Closing out this edition of the WEEKEND WRAP, it appears that Meredith Whitney, who predicted a municipal bond blowout on CBS' 60 Minutes back in December of 2010, saying there would be "50 to 100 sizable defaults" in the U.S. municipal market in the coming year, totaling "hundreds of billions of dollars."
Whitney may be guilty of being too far ahead of her time, which Howard Marks, chairman and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group LLC famously said in 2007, "is indistinguishable from being wrong."
This year, more than 50 municipal-bond issues worth $5 billion have defaulted, the most since 2011, according to Municipal Market Analytics. Whitney was right about muni defaults a decade ago; she just had the magnitude wrong. With interest rates surrounding the zero-bound globally, the muni market is stressed out to the point at which no muni issuance of 30 years or less offers a yield of more than two percent.
While munis are tax-free, combined with the real, growing possibility of default (i.e., as if getting minimal return on your money wasn't insult enough, you may not get a return of your money, the ultimate injury) and low interest rates, they may not be making as much sense for the high-income investors as corporates might. It's a matter of risk preference and tax brackets. Airports and cities, the main drivers of municipal bond issuance, are suffering like never before, a condition that is not likely to find resolution soon or soon enough to bail out the muni bond market.
Well, channeling both Peter Falk as Columbo and Steve Jobs as himself, "just one more thing..."
Legendary investor Jim Rogers expounds upon current and future economic conditions, investing in what you know best, what peasants always do, and the importance of due diligence in the video below.
At the Close, Friday, August 21, 2020:
Dow: 27,930.33, +190.60 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ: 11,311.80, +46.85 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 3,397.16, +11.65 (+0.34%)
NYSE: 12,809.07, -3.79 (-0.03%)
For the Week:
Dow: -0.69 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: +292.50 (+2.65%)
S&P 500: +24.31, (+0.72%)
NYSE: -93.43 (-0.72%)
Friday, August 21, 2020
With Virus Fear Waning, The Political Election Cycle May Bore Americans To Death
So, here we are, right on the cusp of the end of a second straight uneventful week.
If this is what the "new normal" is supposed to look like - stocks setting all-time records, congress on recess, a non-stop, perpetual presidential campaign, 30 million people out of work, sporadic protests and occasional riots, coast-to-coast mask-wearing drones - then peak stupid has been achieved.
Americans have been dumbed down enough over the past 40 years to believe just about anything that comes out of the mouths of either politicians, actors, or TV reporters and that's been the driving force ushering in the era of complacency, wherein every dumb idea, every extra dollar thrown at the problem of the moment, every incremental erosion of liberty and individual rights is met with a yawn and a smirk since there's nothing anybody can do about it, so everybody just goes along to get along.
This is what you get in planned economies, of which the US economy is just one of many in the post-COVID world of make-believe economics and governance. There is no news. There are only events and propaganda, and events with propaganda. Reportage is curated, so that only what the media moguls want the public to see or hear or read is present at the front of the report. Events are staged, propaganda is scripted, and events with propaganda are news stories littered with the unsolicited opinions of reporters or presenters.
Mainstream media offers little in the way of real journalism and less in regards to reporters, who have morphed over time from bold inquisitors and investigators of the truth into presenters and script-readers for the narrative of the day. "News" has become an anachronism. Information is spoon-fed from sources to carriers to your ears and eyes.
Judging from the just-completed Democratic National Convention, those looking forward to a lively and spirited fall season of campaigning are likely to be disappointed come September, and thoroughly exhausted come October. By November, most probable voters are going to be glad it's almost over, after being bombarded by hours of sound-bite coverage, ceaseless advertising, back-biting instagram and twitter noise.
All style and little substance the elections of 2020 will pass without little change. we will elect some people who eventually will do little to change the current course of economy, polity, and society. They will toast themselves as victors and governors, padding their wallets while strip-mining the country's wealth and status.
For what it's worth, politics shouldn't be the focus of every story and event. Emitting mostly hot air and tax increases, politicians in this day and age are no better - and maybe a whole lot worse - than those of any other era. Entrenched and new alike won't make a difference in the lives of most Americans. Their policies will continue to favor established big businesses at the expense of anybody trying to play in their sandbox and contribute mostly to the detriment of society rather than its enhancement. Lobby groups, kickbacks, side deals, influence peddling, graft and corruption will continue at the forefront of the political circus and likely increase.
The political season ramping up while the coronavirus scare cools down be ready for more consecutive weeks just like this one, and the one before and the one before that. To those already established in media-induced comas, everything looks like a blank slate that doesn't change. By November 3rd, we'll all be sufficiently stupefied to believe that voting might actually matter to somebody, somewhere, sometime.
The elections will be over (though the counting may take weeks if not months to complete, guaranteeing another round of breathless coverage by the networks), the virus will be gone.
Safe in our homes, wearing our masks, staying six feet away from each other, we'll all eventually die from obsolescence and boredom.
At the Close, Thursday, August 20, 2020:
Dow: 27,739.73, +46.83 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 11,264.95, +118.49 (+1.06%)
S&P 500: 3,385.51, +10.66 (+0.32%)
NYSE: 12,812.86, -47.02 (-0.37%)
If this is what the "new normal" is supposed to look like - stocks setting all-time records, congress on recess, a non-stop, perpetual presidential campaign, 30 million people out of work, sporadic protests and occasional riots, coast-to-coast mask-wearing drones - then peak stupid has been achieved.
Americans have been dumbed down enough over the past 40 years to believe just about anything that comes out of the mouths of either politicians, actors, or TV reporters and that's been the driving force ushering in the era of complacency, wherein every dumb idea, every extra dollar thrown at the problem of the moment, every incremental erosion of liberty and individual rights is met with a yawn and a smirk since there's nothing anybody can do about it, so everybody just goes along to get along.
This is what you get in planned economies, of which the US economy is just one of many in the post-COVID world of make-believe economics and governance. There is no news. There are only events and propaganda, and events with propaganda. Reportage is curated, so that only what the media moguls want the public to see or hear or read is present at the front of the report. Events are staged, propaganda is scripted, and events with propaganda are news stories littered with the unsolicited opinions of reporters or presenters.
Mainstream media offers little in the way of real journalism and less in regards to reporters, who have morphed over time from bold inquisitors and investigators of the truth into presenters and script-readers for the narrative of the day. "News" has become an anachronism. Information is spoon-fed from sources to carriers to your ears and eyes.
Judging from the just-completed Democratic National Convention, those looking forward to a lively and spirited fall season of campaigning are likely to be disappointed come September, and thoroughly exhausted come October. By November, most probable voters are going to be glad it's almost over, after being bombarded by hours of sound-bite coverage, ceaseless advertising, back-biting instagram and twitter noise.
All style and little substance the elections of 2020 will pass without little change. we will elect some people who eventually will do little to change the current course of economy, polity, and society. They will toast themselves as victors and governors, padding their wallets while strip-mining the country's wealth and status.
For what it's worth, politics shouldn't be the focus of every story and event. Emitting mostly hot air and tax increases, politicians in this day and age are no better - and maybe a whole lot worse - than those of any other era. Entrenched and new alike won't make a difference in the lives of most Americans. Their policies will continue to favor established big businesses at the expense of anybody trying to play in their sandbox and contribute mostly to the detriment of society rather than its enhancement. Lobby groups, kickbacks, side deals, influence peddling, graft and corruption will continue at the forefront of the political circus and likely increase.
The political season ramping up while the coronavirus scare cools down be ready for more consecutive weeks just like this one, and the one before and the one before that. To those already established in media-induced comas, everything looks like a blank slate that doesn't change. By November 3rd, we'll all be sufficiently stupefied to believe that voting might actually matter to somebody, somewhere, sometime.
The elections will be over (though the counting may take weeks if not months to complete, guaranteeing another round of breathless coverage by the networks), the virus will be gone.
Safe in our homes, wearing our masks, staying six feet away from each other, we'll all eventually die from obsolescence and boredom.
At the Close, Thursday, August 20, 2020:
Dow: 27,739.73, +46.83 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 11,264.95, +118.49 (+1.06%)
S&P 500: 3,385.51, +10.66 (+0.32%)
NYSE: 12,812.86, -47.02 (-0.37%)
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Mask Wearing: A Primer For Idiots, Zealots, and Skeptics
Warning: Readers may or may not agree with some - or any - of the statements made in this post. That's OK. As Americans, we all have the right to agree or disagree with any opinion, and this post is full of opinion. It is 100% opinion.
If you are wearing a mask because you think it will help stop the spread of COVID-19, you qualify for idiot or zealot status.
If you are wearing a mask because you think it's Halloween, you need to get a new calendar.
If you're wearing a mask to appease others, such as stores which won't allow you to enter unless you're wearing one, you're probably a skeptic.
If you actually think it's necessary to wear masks, keep a social distance of at least six feet apart from other people in order to "flatten the curve" so as to not overwhelm hospitals with severe cases of COVID-19, the narrative has passed by you. In the main, hospitals have not been overwhelmed, overcrowded, or under any duress whatsoever. A few here and there were stressed, but most hospitals in the United States handled any increased case load from COVID-19 just fine.
Since there's no real danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed, wearing masks in public has become about as useful as wearing sunglasses at night. Those who are still wearing masks because they've been ordered to or some official body has recommended doing so would probably wear sunglasses at night or walk in the street rather than on the sidewalk if the government told them to do so. These are the types who will willingly subject themselves a vaccine, if and when one become available, whether it's been proven safe or net, effective or not.
These are the sheep. The useful idiots the government uses to promote their policies. Whether government polices are in what used to be called the "public interest" doesn't really matter these days. All that matters is that a large enough number of the population follows sheepishly along behind the leadership of a Dr. Fauci or a Gretchen Whitmer or even a blind rat. Judging by the overall acceptance of the narrative projected by the mainstream media propaganda machine, the government has achieved nearly complete control over the populace, and, for them, that's been the goal.
Eventually, we will all be led by a blind rat, and probably a blind rat that's not even a rat but rather a hologram or robot, and may not even be blind. Such is the level of tyranny facing the United States and the world.
People who don't wear masks other than to pacify the zealots and idiots who do are skeptical of the narrative and the rest of the public should be thankful they're still able to express their individual opinions and fashion their lives around their own principles, not those foisted upon them by decree or fiat, such as is the case with the COVID-19 restrictions, conventions, and regulations.
Getting people to wear face masks in public is the goal of the government controllers. All they want is control over you, your money, your kids, your life. That's all. It has nothing whatsoever to do with any health condition or virus or anything other than control.
The tinpot despots posing as governors, senators and members of the House of Representatives - Republican and Democrat alike - do not have your best interest at heart. They have their best interest at heart and that includes controlling the narrative that controls how you conduct yourself in your daily life. Their best interest also includes getting you to re-elect them and they'll tout their "leadership" in the COVID-19 crisis as proof that they are worthy of your continued support and vote. In case they are challenged, many of them have conveniently ascribed to mail-in voting, by which they can make sure the tallies are in their favor.
Thus far, the must-wear-a-mask controllers have managed to cause work outages, business closures, sent trillions of dollars to Wall Street firms and little to the American people (one $1200 check and extended unemployment benefits which has run out and is unlikely to be extended), stoked inflation, shut down sports, prohibited fans from attending any sporting events, cancelled all manner of concerts, trips, travel, imposed lockdowns and border patrols in places like New York and New Jersey, caused riots, looting, arson, and general mayhem, and a slew of other antisocial restrictions.
When will it all be too much? When will the idiots and zealots start paying attention to the skeptics? When the food runs out? When the currency dies? When it's already too late? (It may already be.)
Just in: Weekly initial unemployment claims rose last week to 1.1 million. Getting worse before it gets better.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 19, 2020:
Dow: 27,692.88, -85.19 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 11,146.46, -64.38 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: 3,374.85, -14.93 (-0.44%)
NYSE: 12,859.88, -50.45 (-0.39%)
Corey Hart, Sunglasses at Night
If you are wearing a mask because you think it will help stop the spread of COVID-19, you qualify for idiot or zealot status.
If you are wearing a mask because you think it's Halloween, you need to get a new calendar.
If you're wearing a mask to appease others, such as stores which won't allow you to enter unless you're wearing one, you're probably a skeptic.
If you actually think it's necessary to wear masks, keep a social distance of at least six feet apart from other people in order to "flatten the curve" so as to not overwhelm hospitals with severe cases of COVID-19, the narrative has passed by you. In the main, hospitals have not been overwhelmed, overcrowded, or under any duress whatsoever. A few here and there were stressed, but most hospitals in the United States handled any increased case load from COVID-19 just fine.
Since there's no real danger of hospitals becoming overwhelmed, wearing masks in public has become about as useful as wearing sunglasses at night. Those who are still wearing masks because they've been ordered to or some official body has recommended doing so would probably wear sunglasses at night or walk in the street rather than on the sidewalk if the government told them to do so. These are the types who will willingly subject themselves a vaccine, if and when one become available, whether it's been proven safe or net, effective or not.
These are the sheep. The useful idiots the government uses to promote their policies. Whether government polices are in what used to be called the "public interest" doesn't really matter these days. All that matters is that a large enough number of the population follows sheepishly along behind the leadership of a Dr. Fauci or a Gretchen Whitmer or even a blind rat. Judging by the overall acceptance of the narrative projected by the mainstream media propaganda machine, the government has achieved nearly complete control over the populace, and, for them, that's been the goal.
Eventually, we will all be led by a blind rat, and probably a blind rat that's not even a rat but rather a hologram or robot, and may not even be blind. Such is the level of tyranny facing the United States and the world.
People who don't wear masks other than to pacify the zealots and idiots who do are skeptical of the narrative and the rest of the public should be thankful they're still able to express their individual opinions and fashion their lives around their own principles, not those foisted upon them by decree or fiat, such as is the case with the COVID-19 restrictions, conventions, and regulations.
Getting people to wear face masks in public is the goal of the government controllers. All they want is control over you, your money, your kids, your life. That's all. It has nothing whatsoever to do with any health condition or virus or anything other than control.
The tinpot despots posing as governors, senators and members of the House of Representatives - Republican and Democrat alike - do not have your best interest at heart. They have their best interest at heart and that includes controlling the narrative that controls how you conduct yourself in your daily life. Their best interest also includes getting you to re-elect them and they'll tout their "leadership" in the COVID-19 crisis as proof that they are worthy of your continued support and vote. In case they are challenged, many of them have conveniently ascribed to mail-in voting, by which they can make sure the tallies are in their favor.
Thus far, the must-wear-a-mask controllers have managed to cause work outages, business closures, sent trillions of dollars to Wall Street firms and little to the American people (one $1200 check and extended unemployment benefits which has run out and is unlikely to be extended), stoked inflation, shut down sports, prohibited fans from attending any sporting events, cancelled all manner of concerts, trips, travel, imposed lockdowns and border patrols in places like New York and New Jersey, caused riots, looting, arson, and general mayhem, and a slew of other antisocial restrictions.
When will it all be too much? When will the idiots and zealots start paying attention to the skeptics? When the food runs out? When the currency dies? When it's already too late? (It may already be.)
Just in: Weekly initial unemployment claims rose last week to 1.1 million. Getting worse before it gets better.
At the Close, Wednesday, August 19, 2020:
Dow: 27,692.88, -85.19 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 11,146.46, -64.38 (-0.57%)
S&P 500: 3,374.85, -14.93 (-0.44%)
NYSE: 12,859.88, -50.45 (-0.39%)
Corey Hart, Sunglasses at Night
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
What Really Matters When The Wheels Fall Off And By What Authority Will Rights Be Protected
"When the Wheels Fall Off" is an analogy for the breakdown of any system, device, or contraption. It's becoming more applicable to government and society as days progress through the madness of the COVID-19 panic, incredibly fake news and outright propaganda in the mainstream, financial intermediation by the Federal Reserve, government ineptitude or impotence, and the growing need for individuals to control their own destinies.
In a little more than two months it will be election day in the United States, a day which used to have meaning, say twenty or thirty years ago, though the advent of absentee balloting, early voting and the soon-to-arrive mail-in voting have rendered "election day" an anachronism and relic of the past.
In a society in which fewer than 60 percent of the eligible electorate chooses to engage, in a system in which various jurisdictions (the 50 states) operate elections under different rules, and in a system in which a bankrupt, decrepit, overburdened postal system is about to be the guinea pig in a live test, will the results of the elections be valid, validated, enforceable, or otherwise useful to the electorate?
What has proceeded from the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus and the ham-handed approach by federal and state governments to provide guidance and ad hoc rule-making for the control and prevention of such is an acceleration in the breakdown of institutions - already well under way prior to 2020 - to the point that the world is about to witness federal, state, and local elections that could possibly be deemed invalid, and, for practical purposes, will probably be invalidated in action by the supposed "electorate."
Leaving aside for a moment presidential politics and elections in general for a moment, there are other extenuating circumstances that can readily be seen for means of potential breakdown and break-up of societal norms that are being challenged due to extraordinary circumstances.
Reams of paper would probably be needed to list all of the potential societal "deal-breakers" on the horizon, but the most salient, prevalent, and provocative of them are:
The above list is just a sampling of the chaos already well underway. Governments at all levels have largely lost the ability to govern, either through their own choices or by happenstance. Lawlessness has already taken over parts of some larger cities and a state of anarchy is prevailing and spreading.
Civil society requires an overarching system of laws and punishments for breaking them. Barring such a system, elements of society will turn to localism, common law, private law, or, at worst, laws of nature (survival of the fittest) to settle disputes, both criminal and civil. Our existing system of courts of law and equity, either overwhelmed or backlogged by caseload, downtime, lack of compliance and competence, cannot be relied upon to deliver justice swiftly, equitably, or even-handedly. Further, enforcement of their findings and rulings will likely not be executed diligently or at all as numbers swell and burgeon to unwieldy levels, making them unenforceable for all practical purposes, leaving litigants and defendants more or less on their own.
In time, legal matters will be adjudicated by disinterested third parties, by agreement, by force, or not at all.
The case can be made that within a short time, say one to two years, the entirety of what was previously known as the United States of America will become vast plain of inequity, uncertainty, wantonness, desperation, and tyranny by anyone with sufficient resources by which to impose it. Instead of a powerful nation-state, powers will devolve first to the individual states, then to municipalities, counties, and cities, and ultimately into the hands of ultra-local jurisdictional authorities either by force or will of the local populace.
Being secure in one's rights and properties will fall to the individual, business or corporation to provide for itself because no rights will be inherently protected in the absence of consensual authority.
An example of the potential for a kind of "Wild West" scenario would be basic property rights. People who default on debts and commit to bankruptcy courts may find themselves without protection as law breaks down. Banking or government agents may just seize property they find desirable (low-hanging fruit) without regard to the court's ruling, seizing upon the opportunity to take justice into their own hands because they see limited opposition to their actions.
If somebody steals your car or truck, who can be be relied upon to catch the criminals and return the vehicle to the rightful owner when there are hundreds of car thefts daily?
Landlords who evict tenants for non-payment face the real possibility of dealing with squatters on their own, as police and courts have limited (or no) ability and/or jurisdiction to deal with thousands of such instances. In such a circumstance, abandonment of real property will become a distasteful, but prudent option for property owners. In cases where mortgages are outstanding - not just in rentals and commercial properties, but in residential property as well - banks will hold notes and eventually have to sue for title (foreclosure) and deal with squatters or non-paying renters on their own. The devolving process will take years to play out.
No matter the process for devolution and destruction of institutions, laws, and eventually rights, the end result will be the same: failed government, failed economy, widespread chaos, starvation, poverty, dissolution of society.
This does not have to occur in whole or in part if governments and the people in charge of them would be true to their word and their constitutional duties, to preserve and protect the rights of its citizens. The United States congress, for one, has already abrogated their responsibility in its handling of coronavirus emergency measures.
To wit, these words:
Would the Fed Chairman be true to his words by oversight from the congress, the trillions of dollars spent to shore up insolvent banks and corporations would have instead gone to individuals, families, owners of small businesses. Instead, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street whole, leaving people and small businesses flailing about in the wind while congress stood idly by and did nothing.
The American people have been betrayed by its leaders, its currency, and its press. All freedoms are at stake. Liberty, in so far as one can maintain it, needs to be preserved and protected at the individual level.
Any wonder gun sales, particularly purchases by individuals residing in marginal neighborhoods, are through the roof?
At the Close, Tuesday, August 18, 2020:
Dow: 27,778.07, -66.84 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 11,210.84, +81.12 (+0.73%)
S&P 500: 3,389.78, +7.79 (+0.23%)
NYSE: 12,910.33, -25.78 (-0.20%)
In a little more than two months it will be election day in the United States, a day which used to have meaning, say twenty or thirty years ago, though the advent of absentee balloting, early voting and the soon-to-arrive mail-in voting have rendered "election day" an anachronism and relic of the past.
In a society in which fewer than 60 percent of the eligible electorate chooses to engage, in a system in which various jurisdictions (the 50 states) operate elections under different rules, and in a system in which a bankrupt, decrepit, overburdened postal system is about to be the guinea pig in a live test, will the results of the elections be valid, validated, enforceable, or otherwise useful to the electorate?
What has proceeded from the outbreak of the COVID-19 virus and the ham-handed approach by federal and state governments to provide guidance and ad hoc rule-making for the control and prevention of such is an acceleration in the breakdown of institutions - already well under way prior to 2020 - to the point that the world is about to witness federal, state, and local elections that could possibly be deemed invalid, and, for practical purposes, will probably be invalidated in action by the supposed "electorate."
Leaving aside for a moment presidential politics and elections in general for a moment, there are other extenuating circumstances that can readily be seen for means of potential breakdown and break-up of societal norms that are being challenged due to extraordinary circumstances.
Reams of paper would probably be needed to list all of the potential societal "deal-breakers" on the horizon, but the most salient, prevalent, and provocative of them are:
- An explosion of evictions and foreclosures within the next two months.
- Debt default by individuals, businesses, and corporations.
- Food shortages, either by design or people lacking the ability to afford it.
- Uncontrolled violence unable to be contained by unwilling police forces, mayors, city councils, governors.
- Rampant personal and property crime, including burglary, larceny, arson, insurance fraud, hold-ups, car-jacking, muggings, beatings, assaults, rapes, and murders.
- Acceleration of already out-of-control wealth disparity, with stocks on Wall Street heading to record highs while the underlying economy crumbles.
- Rapid and massive devaluation of the currency and resultant inflation in consumer goods and services
- Fiat money ($US in addition of other central bank monstrosities like the euro, yen, yuan, pound, franc) devolving to its intrinsic value (ZERO).
- A unexpected variant of "schools without walls" as the entirety of the educational system becomes virtual, non-effective, and chaotic.
- Bankrupt local governments, unable to process basic needs or collect taxes readily and efficiently, enforce local ordinances and laws and adjudicate same.
The above list is just a sampling of the chaos already well underway. Governments at all levels have largely lost the ability to govern, either through their own choices or by happenstance. Lawlessness has already taken over parts of some larger cities and a state of anarchy is prevailing and spreading.
Civil society requires an overarching system of laws and punishments for breaking them. Barring such a system, elements of society will turn to localism, common law, private law, or, at worst, laws of nature (survival of the fittest) to settle disputes, both criminal and civil. Our existing system of courts of law and equity, either overwhelmed or backlogged by caseload, downtime, lack of compliance and competence, cannot be relied upon to deliver justice swiftly, equitably, or even-handedly. Further, enforcement of their findings and rulings will likely not be executed diligently or at all as numbers swell and burgeon to unwieldy levels, making them unenforceable for all practical purposes, leaving litigants and defendants more or less on their own.
In time, legal matters will be adjudicated by disinterested third parties, by agreement, by force, or not at all.
The case can be made that within a short time, say one to two years, the entirety of what was previously known as the United States of America will become vast plain of inequity, uncertainty, wantonness, desperation, and tyranny by anyone with sufficient resources by which to impose it. Instead of a powerful nation-state, powers will devolve first to the individual states, then to municipalities, counties, and cities, and ultimately into the hands of ultra-local jurisdictional authorities either by force or will of the local populace.
Being secure in one's rights and properties will fall to the individual, business or corporation to provide for itself because no rights will be inherently protected in the absence of consensual authority.
An example of the potential for a kind of "Wild West" scenario would be basic property rights. People who default on debts and commit to bankruptcy courts may find themselves without protection as law breaks down. Banking or government agents may just seize property they find desirable (low-hanging fruit) without regard to the court's ruling, seizing upon the opportunity to take justice into their own hands because they see limited opposition to their actions.
If somebody steals your car or truck, who can be be relied upon to catch the criminals and return the vehicle to the rightful owner when there are hundreds of car thefts daily?
Landlords who evict tenants for non-payment face the real possibility of dealing with squatters on their own, as police and courts have limited (or no) ability and/or jurisdiction to deal with thousands of such instances. In such a circumstance, abandonment of real property will become a distasteful, but prudent option for property owners. In cases where mortgages are outstanding - not just in rentals and commercial properties, but in residential property as well - banks will hold notes and eventually have to sue for title (foreclosure) and deal with squatters or non-paying renters on their own. The devolving process will take years to play out.
No matter the process for devolution and destruction of institutions, laws, and eventually rights, the end result will be the same: failed government, failed economy, widespread chaos, starvation, poverty, dissolution of society.
This does not have to occur in whole or in part if governments and the people in charge of them would be true to their word and their constitutional duties, to preserve and protect the rights of its citizens. The United States congress, for one, has already abrogated their responsibility in its handling of coronavirus emergency measures.
To wit, these words:
People are undertaking sacrifices for the common good. We need to make them whole. To the extent we have the ability to make them whole we should be doing that as a society. They didn’t cause this. Their business isn’t closed because of anything they did wrong. They didn’t lose their job because of anything they did wrong.
-- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, April 12, 2020, Reuters
Would the Fed Chairman be true to his words by oversight from the congress, the trillions of dollars spent to shore up insolvent banks and corporations would have instead gone to individuals, families, owners of small businesses. Instead, the Federal Reserve made Wall Street whole, leaving people and small businesses flailing about in the wind while congress stood idly by and did nothing.
The American people have been betrayed by its leaders, its currency, and its press. All freedoms are at stake. Liberty, in so far as one can maintain it, needs to be preserved and protected at the individual level.
Any wonder gun sales, particularly purchases by individuals residing in marginal neighborhoods, are through the roof?
At the Close, Tuesday, August 18, 2020:
Dow: 27,778.07, -66.84 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 11,210.84, +81.12 (+0.73%)
S&P 500: 3,389.78, +7.79 (+0.23%)
NYSE: 12,910.33, -25.78 (-0.20%)
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