It's December 1st, roughly 10 months since the dreaded China virus began to spread throughout Wuhan province in China, eventually making its way around the world.
America and Europe have been dealing with the virus since March, and so far, there hasn't been any progress, except for globalists who seek to destroy Western economies. They've actually done quite well, forcing lockdowns on citizens and mask-wearing by hundreds of millions deluded by false claims and over-the-top media coverage and government interventions.
CV-19, which has been proven to be about as deadly as the ordinary seasonal flu - and maybe even less so - has been employed to bludgeon small business and individuals into submission, bankruptcy, even death. The media lies are one-sided and cover up the truth: PCR Tests Are Proven to Result in False Positives 97% of the Time.
In the United States, evidence of fraud continues to proliferate, even as social media censors the news, and the mainstream media continues its false narrative of "President-Elect" Biden and Trump's team losing every case in every court. At some point, it becomes obvious that not only was a massive fraud perpetrated against the American public, but state legislatures, secretaries of state, and governors are actively covering it up, sending electors for Biden to Washington, DC, to be certified within days.
The entire populations of Europe and the United States are at a breaking point and little is being done to prevent further crushing of local economies and elevation to the highest elected position in the country of a known influence-peddler, grifter, thief, via a stolen election.
But, stocks keep racing higher, gold and silver beaten down on a regular, daily basis.
The world is perilously close to a breaking point. It's difficult to comprehend how quickly individual rights have been stripped away and how close most of the developed world is to totalitarian overthrow.
Big government is in bed with big media, big business, big pharma. Do they not realize that by purposely draining all resources from the public they will eventually find nothing left to feed upon?
There's probably less than two to three months before the entire planet is in the throes of an economic and social catastrophe that will make the Great Depression seem quaint and mild by comparison.
At the Close, Monday, November 30, 2020:
Dow: 29,638.64, -271.73 (-0.91%)
NASDAQ: 12,198.74, -7.11 (-0.06%)
S&P 500: 3,621.63, -16.72 (-0.46%)
NYSE: 14,006.46, -192.03 (-1.35%)
If the week just past taught us anything, it is that Americans have no control over their own lives, or, at least they're not supposed to, according to the assembled DC bureaucrats, mindful media and the medical establishment.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, point man for the CV-19 propaganda campaign, warned Americans about traveling over the Thanksgiving holiday, and fretted - along with anchors and reporters on mainstream media TV outlets - that people ignoring his warnings were likely to make the entire holiday season - Christmas and New Year's - worse in terms of his fake CV-19 "scamdemic."
Stocks had another solid week, with the Dow Industrials, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NYSE Composite all making new all-time highs, even if interrupted by time off for the "little people," but oil prices were up more than 10 percent, raising gas at the pump, and anything that might offer relief from the tyranny of fiat money, specifically, gold, silver, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, were beaten down like disobedient dogs.
On top of all that, the media continued to shield the public from the truth about the 2020 elections. They were rigged for Joe Biden, as any thinking person who bothers to do a little research can easily ascertain. Making worse in that regard is the corruption of judges at state and federal district levels, who have uniformly ruled in favor of the election cheating perpetrators, denying justice for the people of various states.
Basically, this was a week in which the elitists flexed their muscles a little and showed the world who's really in charge. It's sickening because the world is witnessing the end of democracy as a principal form of governance, as it's being replaced by totalitarian political control which answers only to itself.
Such is the state of the world as 2020 - one of the most regrettably ugly years in the pantheon of human history - lurches into its final month.
Breaking into the details for the week, the recent raises in treasury yields on the long end were tamped down a bit on Friday after rising earlier. At Friday's close of business, the 10-year note yielded 0.84%, the 30-year, 1.57, up one and four basis points, respectively. The short end remained at the zero-bound.
WTI crude oil rose from $42.42 to $45.52 over the course of the week. The rise in oil prices synchronizes nicely with colder weather and holiday travel. Since October 30, the price has risen from 35.79 to it's current level, a gain of 27.2%, which is simply stunning, considering the timing and exigent circumstances from CV-19 with closures, lockdowns and travel warnings.
Cryptocurrency was the most damaged asset class, with Bitcoin getting pounded on fears of government regulation or, more likely, distribution by "whales" cashing in on the recent rise which had the coin less than $10 short of its 2017 all-time high. From early Wednesday morning through early Friday, the price of Bitcoin in US$ fell from 19,500 to a low of 16,490, suffering a 15.4% drop.
Gold and silver, as mentioned above, were simply destroyed as futures traders took down the precious metals as though they were indeed ancient relics of a world forgotten. Gold's decline from $1,872.40 an ounce to its close on Friday at a disturbing $1,783.10 was a 4.8% slap. Showing the ultimate central bank disdain for the metal of gentlemen, silver fell from $24.36 to $22.68 on the week, a drop of 6.9%, leaving the gold:silver ratio at 78.62.
Prices for the metals are well below their summer highs. Gold has zoomed past $2,000 an ounce while silver was testing 8-year highs just short of $30 per ounce.
As is customary, here are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 28.90 / 49.00 / 36.62 / 36.10
1 oz silver bar: 29.18 / 49.95 / 37.16 / 36.95
1 oz gold coin: 1,853.00 / 1,993.68 / 1,905.17 / 1,897.62
1 oz gold bar: 1,853.00 / 1,900.98 / 1,883.39 / 1,890.24
Happy Holidays!
At the Close, Friday, November 27, 2020:
Dow: 29,910.37, +37.90 (+0.13%)
NASDAQ: 12,205.85, +111.44 (+0.92%)
S&P 500: 3,638.35, +8.70 (+0.24%)
NYSE: 14,198.50, +6.91 (+0.05%)
For the Week:
Dow: +646.81 (+2.29%)
NASDAQ: +350.88 (+2.96%)
S&P 500: +80.81 (+2.27%)
NYSE: +371.60 (+2.59%)
Focused on the glorious Dow 30,000 meme the past few days, along with post-election foibles and coronavirus circumstances, little notice was paid to a number of developments that may eventually have more to do with a "Great Reset" economy than the rise and fall of old standard stocks and bonds.
Since nobody bothers to keep score on the amount of negative interest rate debt in play throughout the world, Barclay's and Bloomberg try to keep abreast. Via coindesk, a premier purveyor of all news concerning cryptocurrencies, noted on November 16, the amount of negative-yielding debt set a new record, at $17.05 trillion (in US$).
Rising dramatically from around $6 trillion to the prior high mark of $17.04 trillion in 2019, low issuance of new negative debt and the retiring of some older maturities had brought the amount of below-zero interest-bearing debt to less than $8 trillion earlier this year. The global pandemic thrust upon the world stage changed all that as governments scrambled to shore up damaged economies and the amount of new negative-interest debt instruments soared.
Massive emergency funding in the negative space seemed a perfect set-up for investments without counterparty risk, such as gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. That theorm held sway early in the pandemic phase, with gold notching a record high, silver and Bitcoin up sharply. Until recently, these alternate investment currencies had held up relatively well, especially Bitcoin, which rocketed within a few dollars of its all-time peak (2017), sailing past the $19,000 mark on Tuesday of this week and hitting a three-year high at 19,488.81 on Wednesday.
It was there that Bitcoin met with distressing news to holders and speculators, as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was reported to be considering plans to introduce fresh rules for "self-custody wallets" by the end of his term. Bitcoin bottomed out at $16,270.37 on Thursday, Thanksgiving Day in the United States, but began rallying late Thursday into Friday.
Current speculation sees the impact of the Treasury's rumored regulation overblown and credits the decline more to simple overbought conditions. Bitcoin has rallied sharply, nearly doubling in just October and November. A move beyond $20,000 is still seen as a probability by the end of 2020. Considering the volatility of the crypto space, a record high seems a given and further gains are forecast for 2021 and beyond as fiat currencies continue to deprecate and lose purchasing power while Bitcoin and other major cryptos gain new users and advanced spending capabilities.
Despite efforts by governments (Bitcoin is banned in six countries) to regulate the holding and taxation of cryptocurrencies as investments, the Bitcoin bandwagon appears only to be slowed temporarily by efforts to contain its growth.
Precious metals have painted a similar, if not as spectacular a story. Gold, which had rallied from a low of $1167.10 in the summer of 2018 to an intraday high of $2089.20 in August, 2020, was never able to hold that level, falling below $2000 an ounce later that month, commencing a slow decline that has accelerated in recent days.
The world's recognized greatest store of value was punched down nearly $100 just three weeks ago and knocked lower the past two weeks to just above $1800 per ounce. Silver suffered a similar fate, testing $30 an ounce in August, only to be beaten down to current levels around $23 an ounce.
Cries of foul have been loudly sounded by the goldbug community, since manipulation of the precious metals market has been proven by the criminal convictions against JP Morgan and fines paid by other banks, particularly HSBC and Citigroup, and seems not to have deterred the practices of spoofing and naked shorting in the futures markets to facilitate price suppression.
Until real price discovery is attained via a smashing of the closed loop LMBA and standing for physical delivery on the COMEX, gold and silver will continue to frustrate honest investors, subject to the worst criminal behavior that serves only the interests of the central bank counterfeiters who are openly strip-mining the great economies of the world.
As Captain Bligh in the film Mutiny on the Bounty may have accurately surmised, "The beatings will continue until morale improves."
At the Close, Wednesday, November 25, 2020:
Dow: 29,872.47, -173.77 (-0.58%)
NASDAQ: 12,094.40, +57.62 (+0.48%)
S&P 500: 3,629.65, -5.76 (-0.16%)
NYSE: 14,191.58, -57.92 (-0.41%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (Select dates, Closing prices)
March 29, 1999: 10,006.78
February 3, 2017: 20,071.46
November 24, 2020: 30,046.24
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrials closed over 30,000 for the first time ever. From the numbers above, it's easy to see how fast the 30 select stocks (the makeup of which changes fairly frequently these days) comprising the Average has galloped from one giant number to the next.
...all of which, with the notable exception of General Electric (GE, consequently, not part of the current roster) have been gobbled up, picked apart, merged, liquidated or somehow morphed into some other corporate entity.
So, it took nearly 103 years for the Average to go from the first published value of the Dow Jones, 40.94, which was calculated by taking the average market price for the 12 companies, to 10,000, obviously changing the formula along the way.
Just as a side note, if one were to use the same formula as the originators, simply taking the average price of each of the now 30 component stocks, the number would be - just guessing - somewhere around 120, but that would hardly get anyone excited. Does anybody really want a hat that reads "Dow 100?" Probably not.
Perhaps it's worth taking note of the original calculation of a simple average, but the genius of simplicity is a discussion for another time. Today, we're focused on how fast we can reach the next big number, 40,000.
After bouncing above and below that 10,000 mark for a short time, and, notably dipping below it in 2000 on a number of occasions and then for an extended period of time before and after the tragic events of 9/11/2001, falling as low as 7,286.27 on October 9, 2002, the Dow recovered and was off to the races, well, kind of...
until the sub-prime crisis crashed it all the way down to 6,547.05 on March 9, 2009, the day otherwise known as the "Haines Bottom" after CNBC anchor, Mark Haines (RIP), correctly called the stock market bottom on that very day prior to the open (see video below).
So, then, finally, the Dow was off to the races, crossing again over 10,000 to the upside on October 14, 2009, to eventually reach the legendary level of 20,000 in 2017. Thus, depending on perspective, the Dow took either 19 years (1999-2017) to go from 10 to 20,000, or eight (2009-2017). Either way, it was done in fairly short order, doubling in value.
The next step, from 20,000 to 30,000, took less than four years (3 years, nine months, and 21 days) to complete. While the value of the Average only increased by 50% instead of the 100% in the previous epoch, the move is no less impressive. Mathemeticians may note that at the current trajectory, 40,000 should be within striking distance in about 2 years and 8 months, or roughly speaking, July 17, 2023.
The next number for given series 103,19,4 is 58
General polynomial is 34.5x2-187.5x+256
...whatever that means.
So, for the true pessimists out there, according to at least one website’s calculator, the Average won't hit 40,000 until 2078. The best guess is that it will hit the magic 40,000 mark (and there will be hats available, promise) somewhere between 2023 and 2078. Understand that it is a smaller and smaller percentage gain every 10,000 points. The value of the Dow Average will only gain by 33.3% on a move from 30,000 to 40,000, so doing it in under three years is actually not improbable.
Just to amplify the idea that nothing in the financial world goes up or down in straight lines, as we saw with the bumpy road between 1999 and 2009 (aka, the lost decade), a couple of points:
The bottom in 2009 was actually lower than the one in 2002.
It took 27 years for the Average to recover from the October, 1929 crash, from a high of 381.17 to a low of 41.22 in 1932, and back to a yearly high of 404.39 in 1956.
Back in the world of the real or imagined (take your pick), presumptive president, Joe Biden, has apparently chosen former Chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, as his presumptive Secretary of the Treasury. Yellen, an uber-dove on monetary policy, is likely to empty the treasury with the same abandon she promoted easy money when Fed Chair. The skies will open up and twenties will fall from the heavens.
Oil prices have skyrocketed above $45 per barrel for WTI crude, the highest price since early March of this year. It's probably nothing more than the idea that, opposed to the whole lockdown COVID preaching, many families are traveling over the Thanksgiving holiday, so the oil companies want to get an extra piece of pie. It could be more than that, but it's a good bet that oil prices will fluctuate between $40 and $48 until Christmas and then stabilize near or below that range in 2021.
With stocks booming, a little money leaked out of treasuries, with the 10-year note and 30-year bond yields both higher, by two and four basis points, respectively.
Markets are closed on Thursday, and a half-day session (close at 1:00 pm ET) is scheduled for Friday, so Wednesday is the last full trading day of the week, November closing out the month on Monday. With that, the Labor Department moved it's reading on initial unemployment claims to today, noting 778,000 new unemployment claims in the most recent week.
Happy Thanksgiving!
At the Close, Tuesday, November 24, 2020:
Dow: 30,046.24, +454.97 (+1.54%)
NASDAQ: 12,036.79, +156.15 (+1.31%)
S&P 500: 3,635.41, +57.82 (+1.62%)
NYSE: 14,249.50, +251.26 (+1.79%)
Another Monday, another vaccine announcement, making it three weeks in a row that the COVID crisis has managed to goose stocks higher.
This week it was Astra-Zeneca announcing a COVID vaccine that is supposedly 74% effective against a virus that is 97% infectious. Amazingly, most humans are about as good at math as most farm animals.
No comment on the coming of president Biden and the reincarnation of the Obama administration.
We prepare for the worst.
Sorry for the brevity of this post, but there's no need to waste time figuring out what to do in this market. Buy the dips, buy the rises. Everything is wonderful.
At the Close, Monday, November 23, 2020:
Dow: 29,591.27, +327.79 (+1.12%)
NASDAQ: 11,880.63, +25.66 (+0.22%)
S&P 500: 3,577.59, +20.05 (+0.56%)
NYSE: 13,998.24, +171.24 (+1.24%)
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