WEEKEND WRAP: Inflation Pressures Continue Mounting In Bonds, Base Metals, Despite Official Fed Muttering

Despite an overall down week, stocks remained buoyant as declines across major indices were uniformly less than one percent, with the Dow the best, losing just under 0.50% and the NYSE dropping by just under one percent.

Stocks started the week upbeat, but ended with two straight sessions on the downside, save for the NASDAQ, which was the only major to manage a gain on Friday. This lackluster performance was likely the result of competing factions of rising long-term interest rates, the ongoing tech wreck, and anticipation of millions of $1400 checks being slowly doled out to Americans earning less than $75k per year, some of which (10-15% overall, or roughly $50 billion) is expected to be invested in equities.

While the bump from retail investors has yet to materialize, Mr. Market seems to be indicating that this could be a near-term top, as retail always comes in late, often too late, after stocks had legged up. If stocks sink a bit through April, it would be a normal happening for consume bag-holders.

Rising yields on 10-year notes and 30-year bonds are a screaming signal for at least a slowdown if not an outright correction. By almost any calculation, stocks are overvalued, though that sentiment is partially obscured by ongoing Federal Reserve QE and those juicy stimulus checks and added unemployment benefits being rolled out.

While the higher yields might not exactly be in competition with dividend yields on stocks, they're close enough to have people paying attention, plus, if they're treasuries, they're considered almost risk-free, and, smart bond buyers can have them at a discount, making them quite attractive to high-income individuals and funds. The flow hasn't reversed just yet, but the effect of high yields at the long end of the curve is beginning to become a worry for markets.

Yield on the 10-year note rose 10 basis points, from 1.64% to 1.74% over the week, while the 30-year rose five basis points, from 2.40% to 2.45%, both of which are the highest in more than a year. The last time rates were at these levels was roughly from June of 2019 through mid-January 2020, during which stocks gained, though we all know what happened in February 2020, when the pandemic struck and stocks sank.

It appears that current interest rates won't likely be enough to cause a stampede out of equities, though levels with the 10-year over 2.5 percent and the 30 above 3.0% might. With Fed talking down inflation every chance they get, it's almost a certainty that interest rates will continue rising and stocks will flounder over the medium term. Spring and Summer may turn out to fall into the "sell in May and stay away" category and by fall, the inflationary overhang of relentless QE and government overreach in terms of largesse, deficit, and stimulus (congress is already discussing the next round) will be unmistakable.

A shift from risk assets to fixed income to cash and then to parts unknown is an emerging pattern, though, like all things financial, is not yet obvious to most and won't occur in a straight line pattern. There will be bumps, grinds, euphoria and despair aplenty along the way. From a purely irrational, unattached perspective, stocks would seem to be unable to reproduce this year the outsized gains from March 2020 through the present. Using year-end figures, there doesn't seem to be a discernible pattern for gains or losses in stocks overall. WIth the NASDAQ an outlier, the main indices are up five to six percent overall year-to-date. Even the NASDAQ is holding onto a slim gain just over two percent, having closed out 2020 at 12,888.

If indicators are a friend of the investor, perhaps the price of oil was showing the way this week as WTI crude took a nosedive this week. After reaching what appears to be a double top ($66.09 on 3/5; $66.02 on 3/11), the price of a barrel fell below $60 briefly on Thursday before rallying Friday to close out the week at $61.42. While the United States seems hell-bent on reopening schools, businesses and the economy, Europe is struggling with a third wave of COVID, and that seems to be putting some pressure on demand, along with warming Northern Hemisphere temperatures following what was, in total, a relatively ordinary winter, outside of Texas, of course.

Slack demand and oversupply usually equates to lower prices, so, at a time in which oil was rocketing higher (up from the high $30s to low $40s in November and December to over $60 in just four months), some pullback was to be expected. The price ran ahead of projections for both economic recovery and return to normal patterns, which is happening at a snail's pace.

Cryptocurrencies spent the week hitting the pause button after Bitcoin nearly topped $62,000 last Saturday. It spent the week grinding lower, currently pricing at $56,000-$58,000. While this price level may be disappointing to some true believers, it's still good for an 800% gain from a year ago, so nobody is as yet pulling their hair out.

For the Week:
Dow: -150.67 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: -104.63 (-0.79%)
S&P 500: -30.24 (-0.77%)
NYSE: -152.95 (-0.97%)

Precious metals had a productive, if uninspiring, week, with gold rising from $1726.85 to $1,749.60, while silver took it on the chin, dropping from $26.60 per ounce to $26.39. Silver seems to be stuck in a range between $25 and $27, with seemingly no escape from the clutches of the LBMA and futures trading, which has managed to meep a lid on prices despite widespread reporting of shortages and shipping delays from online dealers.

An interesting story is still developing out of Perth Mint, which recently ran out of finished silver products for sale at retail. The reddit crowd over at r/wallstreetsilver wants to believe that its efforts are having some effect on global inventories, and, undeniably, to an extent, they are, but Perth Mint answered its critics in a blog post on Wednesday, March 17.

While claiming there was in fact no physical shortage of the metal, and that Perth Mint was focusing on producing one ounce Aussie Kangaroos, there are, in fact, no 2020 or 2021 Kangaroos available for sale. The seemingly conflicting information has prompted a lively debate. In the grand scheme of things, silver is still significantly undervalued and finished products continue to fly off shelves at super premium prices, when even available.

Here are the most recent sale prices for common one ounce gold and silver items for immediate delivery on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included.

Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 35.50 / 44.00 / 40.92 / 41.25
1 oz silver bar: 36.78 / 49.99 / 42.38 / 42.86
1 oz gold coin: 1,881.52 / 2,021.63 / 1,951.39 / 1,949.14
1 oz gold bar: 1,829.95 / 2,050.73 / 1,873.96 / 1,854.20

What's demonstrated by the gold and silver prices for immediate delivery is that extraordinarily-high premiums still command the market, though silver slipped somewhat over the course of the week, with the Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) falling to $41.85. The auction and individual ounce market remains red-hot, however, with silver premiums upwards of 60% over spot. Gold, due to its higher average and median values, still carries premiums over 13% for common coins, and about 10% over spot for bars and rounds.

While the precious metals wholesale market remains moribund and the retail market in tight supply, there's no mistaking the real rally in base commodities. Zinc, Tin, Nickel, Copper, Lumber, and Aluminum have all risen steadily - if not spectacularly - over the pst year, yet another indication that inflation is well entrenched, despite what government and Federal Reserve mouthpieces have to say.

When Money Daily recommended canned goods on Friday, not only will the contents of such purchasing now act as a future inflation hedge, the packaging may turn out to be one of the best investments of the decade.

That's a WRAP for this 3000th posting of Money Daily.

At the Close, Friday, March 19, 2021:
Dow: 32,627.97, -234.33 (-0.71%)
NASDAQ: 13,215.24, +99.07 (+0.76%)
S&P 500: 3,913.10, -2.36 (-0.06%)
NYSE: 15,562.26, -26.81 (-0.17%)

NASDAQ Tumbles Again, Pulling Dow, S&P Off Record Highs; Long Bonds Issue Warnings

Just a day after making new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials tumbled in sympathy with the NASDAQ, where tech stocks dragged the index lower, ending a string of three straight positive sessions.

It was the worst loss of the year for the NASDAQ, and its worst one-day performance since falling 427 points this past October 28. The NASDAQ closed at an all-time high of 14,095.47 on February 12. Since then it's down nearly seven percent, hitting a closing low of 12,609.16 on March 8 which put it into correction territory with a 10% loss from the prior high.

While the NASDAQ continues to lag the other indices, it's worth noting that the gap continues to be substantial. The Dow and NYSE Composite are less than one percent off record highs, while the S&P is less than two percent below its record close on Wednesday. While the NASDAQ has been the leading index on the way up through the post-sub-prime-crisis years, it makes sense that it would be the leader on the way back down.

So, if the NAZ is falling faster than the other indices, it would serve as an indicator of what's to come in a simplistic sort of way. Also, if investing, making money, and keeping money safe was that easy, wed all already be rich and there would be no reason to invest in anything. We could just hand down our wealth to the kids and they could ride off into the future with saddlebags full of dough.

In the real world in which we're forced to engage more often than we'd like, there are such things as taxes, expenses, health issues, car accidents, natural disasters, and untold numbers of human errors which make life a little less bearable than a stock market and cryptocurrency utopia. It's against this real world backdrop to which we have to gauge our appetite for risk, ability to earn, saving discipline, health, and future expectations. The calculations and extrapolations often collide with unknowns, making precise future predictions all but impossible. The best one can hope for is to hold reasonably correct assumptions about the various elements in finances, keep to some sane degree of caution versus risk and have a strategy designed to reach expected outcomes.

In markets such as exist today, where passive investments have outperformed active trading regimens, one big, bad downturn or mistake can take everything away in a rush. Investments are crowded. Certain market segments are overcrowded and overvalued, ripe for profit-taking. Therein lies the risk to markets, investments, whole economies. Nobody can reasonably assume that stocks will continue to rise, virtually unimpeded, forever, though that's been the case for more than 12 years, since stocks bottomed out in March of 2009. Eventually, the party ends, everybody staggers home at some degree of happiness or depression. The smartest will have left early. The happiest will have left early, returned, had more fun and gone home long before the last stragglers find the door.

It could be reasonably discerned that we're getting close to that last straggler condition in markets. On the contrary, the party seems to be at its peak or just past it, roaring along, which is usually when the police arrive, alerted by some neighbor who isn't exactly appreciative of loud noises late at night. When that happens, either everybody quiets down or some people get pulled off in a squad car. Shortly thereafter, a bunch of people leave, but the celebration continues, albeit at a less-enthusiastic pace. That's probably where we are today. People are still throwing money at stocks, cryptos, commodities, but they're a little more wary of the outcomes. They've made some money and don't like losing (nobody does). Money is still loose, but the rapidity of the rise in yields on long-dated treasuries augurs ill for the future. Yield on the 10-year note (1.71%) reached its highest since January 2020. For the 30-year bond (2.45%), we have to go all the way back to November, 2019, for an equivalent.

These higher bond yields are broadcasting a message that business conditions are tightening. The "recovery" meme is for rubes. If the economy is supposed to be recovering from the corona crisis, why then are stocks at all-time highs, bitcoin close to record highs, and incomes higher in 2020 than in prior years. The twisted logic of the pandemic benefited a few large companies (Wal-Mart, Facebook, Google, Amazon, et. al.), but people still went about their routines, despite having to take different routes to get there. The drop-off in economic activity was contained largely to entertainment, travel, and leisure. Most other businesses of size carried along as usual and most of the effect was in the summer and fall of 2020. Most people have resumed somewhat normal routines. Any recovery that's going to happen isn't going to produce much of a bang.

There are still gains to be made, but maybe not in the usual places. Even though there will be millions of $1400 checks being issued over the next few weeks, not everybody is buying stocks with all of it or even some of it. Only about 15-20% of that money is going into stocks or cryptos. The rest is going into paying bills, shoring up households, savings. When that money hits the markets - by April 15, more or less - one might as well ring a bell, roust up the sleepers and send them on their way. The party is going to wind down. The NASDAQ and the 10-year note yield popping upwards of 1.70% are providing clues that it's time to take a step back, watch, learn, listen, and look for opportunities.

Friday is known as a quad witching day, on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. These occur on the third Friday nearing the end of each quarter, March, June, September, and December. There's usually a bit of volatility as fund managers square up positions and money is reallocated, though there's often less drama than the pundits would have us believe. Friday may be a good day to take some profits, pare down losses (who has those, and what are they?) or at least take account of balances and devise a workable exit strategy.

At the Close, Thursday, March 18, 2021:
Dow: 32,862.30, -153.07 (-0.46%)
NASDAQ: 13,116.17, -409.03 (-3.02%)
S&P 500: 3,915.46, -58.66 (-1.48%)
NYSE: 15,589.07, -142.07 (-0.90%)

Jerome Powell and the FOMC Flying Usury Circus

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, and his colleagues at the FOMC issued a statement regarding current interest rate policy and then held a press conference to discuss aspects of their ongoing operations.

According to people in the financial media, it was a big deal. This, despite the press release being almost a carbon copy of their last press release, and no change in the federal funds interest rate (0.0-0.25%), had lots of people on edge until the 2:00 pm ET announcement and somehow ended up being net positive for stocks. All of the major indices finished the session with gains, most of them made after the FOMC announcement and Powell's press conference.

It's interesting that so many people, with so much money, pay so much attention to a bunch of egghead economists who have basically wrecked the economy and debased the US$ currency by 98% over the past 107 years. Why would people commit time and effort to figure out what this group of people is doing when, on the surface, they don't really do much at all?

Well, for really, really rich people and people who manage money and assets for those people, little changes can add up to lots of money gained or lost. Big, multi-national corporations like to know that they can continue borrowing at close to zero percent interest and for how long. For those people, the Fed has maintained a constant green light pretty much since March of 2009.

People who have mortgages on their homes, vacation homes, second homes, or commercial property want to know that mortgage rates are going to stay low, being that the federal funds rate has implications for all other interest rates.

For people without much “skin in the game,” i.e., people without stocks or mortgages, the Fed’s actions mean little. Many people out in the real world pay rent instead of owning a home, and, if they’re fortunate enough to have a job, get paid in Federal Reserve Notes (AKA US$), pay their bills with cash or checks, and don’t really pay much attention to Powell and his fellow eggheads. These people are commonly referred to as “consumers,” because they consume things in the economy, like food, clothing, cars, kitchen sinks, toys, computers, and assorted goods and services that keep the economy and businesses humming along.

If, however, these consumers have a personal loan, student loan, car payment, credit card, or any other kind of debt, they are confused by all the interest in the Fed and why their interest rates are so high if big institutions can borrow money for almost nothing.

For instance, depending on one’s credit score, a new car loan can carry an interest rate as low as 4% and as high as 14%. Used car loan rates range between 6% and 21%.

Credit card rates are even worse, ranging from 14% to 25%, with penalty rates at high as 29.99%. If a consumer misses a payment or go over your credit limit they get hit with the higher rate. Credit card issuers can increase the interest rate on credit cards for any reason if the account is more than one year old and there’s no limit to how high that rate can go. They also can assess various penalties which cost the consumer even more.

So, if a person is late or misses a payment, the credit card company or bank usually increases the interest rate and likely to limit the line of credit. If a big company has trouble paying off a loan - at a very low interest rate - the bank will likely call and make arrangements, loan them more money, and, if they get into serious trouble, the Fed - yes, Jerome Powell and his egghead buddies - will bail them out.

It’s a very unlevel and unfair playing (and paying) field. It's very troubling because consumers purchase goods and services produced by the big corporations. They get low interest rates, mark up their products and charge well beyond their costs to produce, and the consumer pays, often not just the higher price (inflation), but a premium if purchased with a credit card.

Personal credit cards have been a staple of American business since the 1960s. Prior to that, interest rates were reasonable and many states had what were then known as usury laws. Banks and credit companies could not charge above a certain percentage rate. Usury laws had their origins in the Roman Empire. Beginning somewhere around 443 BC, interest rates on all loans were capped at 8 1/3%. This rate persisted almost worldwide until until 1543 AD, nearly 2000 years.

As populations grew and time marched forward to the industrial revolution, various countries and states within the United States began to write their own usury laws. Many states capped interest rates at 12 to 18%, but in 1979, the landmark Supreme Court decision in Marquette National Bank v. First of Omaha Service Corporation changed everything, allowing nationally-chartered banks to "export" their interest rate from the state in which they were incorporated, doing an end run around state usury laws.

Since then, usury laws have been nullified by federal laws superseding them. Effectively, there are no usury laws in the United States. Banks and oher financial firms can charge whatever interest rate they see fit, often referred to as predatory lending which encompasses almost of the financial industry that has been making enormous profits from consumers for decades. So-called payday loans charge interest as high as 350%, making a $1000 loan cost $4500 over the course of a year. It's actually not criminal, though it should be.

The US congress (oh, boy, them again) has allowed interest rates on credit cards and consumer loans to rise unregulated since the 1980s. A few attempts to establish a national usury rate have failed, primarily because people in congress are lobbied extensively by banks and financial firms are among the top donors to political campaigns. Thus, people in congress have juxtaposed their constituencies from the district or state they represent to the people who finance their campaign. Congress - in terms of banking and consumer protection, as well as in many other areas - doesn't represent people; it represents business, at the expense of people.

To eliminate confusion about why corporations get the best deals on interest rates and consumers get the shaft, one need look no further than congress and the Federal Reserve, which, in addition to openly promoting inflation, could reinstate usury laws, since they exert so much control over banks and credit institutions, but they don't and they won't.

That's why people pay so much attention to Jerome Powell and his FOMC Flying Usury Circus. It affects everybody in some way, from low, low interest rates for business, to high, high interest rates and inflation for consumers.

Just since 2000, total US consumer credit has increased from $1.7 trillion to over $4.5 trillion. The country is having its currency strip-mined by banks and financial firms. The Fed and congress enable it and actively promote it.

Announced Thursday morning, 770,000 people filed for unemployment benefits last week.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 17, 2021:
Dow: 33,015.37, +189.42 (+0.58%)
NASDAQ: 13,525.20, +53.63 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: 3,974.12, +11.41 (+0.29%)
NYSE: 15,731.15, +61.85 (+0.39%)

Stupid People Are Running (and Ruining) Everything

Time magazine used to be the standard for excellence in magazine journalism. Over the past number of years, the once-proud bastion of liberal news-making has slipped into irrelevance due to the evolution of the internet, sagging sales and advertising revenue, sketchy (at best) reportage, but mostly, bad leadership characterized most prominently by stupidity.

Take, for instance, their choices for "Person of the Year" over the past 10 years shown below. Four of them weren't even individual people (2011, '14, '17, '18). Making the case for extended stupidity, in 2006, the Person of the Year was awarded to "You" (kidding you not).

The other six included a three US presidents (and one VP, Harris), one for a second time (Obama), a foreign leader ((Merkel), a Pope and a nagging, teenaged environmentalist, proving just how short-sighted the editors at Time are, that they can't see beyond the people most prominent in the media, and those just seeking attention.

2011: The Protester

2012: Barack Obama

2013: Pope Francis

2014: Ebola Fighters

2015: Angela Merkel

2016: Donald Trump

2017: The Silence Breakers

2018: The Guardians and the War on Truth

2019: Greta Thunberg

2020: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris

Looking back over the past decade, this list is pretty disappointing, not so much that the individual people are largely politicians, but that the magazine and its editors think they are the most influential, or powerful, or had contributed the most to the human experience over the course of a year. Where the heck are soccer moms, grocery store clerks, gardeners, carpenters, engineers, scientists, wedding planners, babies, and the vast array of people who make life worth living just by doing their jobs. Heck, there isn't even a movie star or pop singer among them.

For better or for worse, the world lives with the likes of the auteurs formerly known as Time magazine and other formerly-magnificent publications and media outlets like the Washington Post and NY Times, which still have reporters and opinion-makers who fall over each other trying to get the inside scoop from politicians who are shadows of the great leaders who came before them.

The same can be said of business and culture. The people at the top just aren't making it for the most part. Allowing for maybe a 10% drop-off, politicians are all dirty, journalists are all vapid, business leaders are all corrupt and greedy, and movie stars and pop culturalists are snobs. The world is falling to pieces because 99% of the population has some fascination or adoration (ughh!) with the one percenters who got to where they are either through inheritance, corruption, lying, cheating, or stealing.

Sure, some survived on talent, but has anyone taken a really close look at the people who are occupying the White House lately? These folks are devoid of common sense, driven by lust for power, have accomplished little, and care more about their personal appearance and mask etiquite than they do the American people.

The one prominent leader that had a backbone, accomplishments, savvy and fearlessness - Donald J. Trump - was pilloried and cancelled by the culturalists and a broken political, judicial, and journalistic system.

Americans are like sheep being led to slaughter, the vast majority of them going willingly to slaughter. After being told to stay home, lose your job, wear a mask, stay six feet apart, and don't sneeze for a year, lots of really, really stupid people have decided to get stuck in the arm with a needle containing a mystery vaccine concoction of chemicals and fluids that haven't been adequately tested just so they can get on with whatever small part of their lives are left to them.

No wonder stupid people are leading the way down the paths of destruction. The people following are even dumber.

Perhaps we're being a little to harsh in evaluating the power people of our time. Perhaps it's always been this way, but we've failed to notice until now, now that it's probably too late to matter, but, the people who make the rules and then don't follow them, just are not very impressive.

Joe Biden, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, the cast of SNL, Grammy winners, just seem so... disingenuous, aloof, and lacking. America, and the world, deserves better.

---

Heads up on Wednesday's trading includes a 2:00 pm ET announcement by the FOMC of the Fed that interest rates are not changing. It's not a big deal unless the Fed’s move some of their dot plots around or Jerome Powell makes some noises about inflation or velocity or money supply, all of which seems unlikely.

Looking ahead, Friday is a quad-witching day for options and futures, which may be cause for volatility.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 16, 2021:
Dow: 32,825.95, -127.51 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: 13,471.57, +11.86 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 3,962.71, -6.23 (-0.16%)
NYSE: 15,669.30, -106.21 (-0.67%)

Gold, Silver, Stocks, Bitcoin, Canned Goods, Water, Guns, Ammo... What Do You Really Need?

It wouldn't be a stretch of the imagination to suggest that the current occupants of elected offices in Washington, DC (your executive, senators, representatives) would dearly love to have your guns.

After all, they've had the Capitol grounds surrounded by the National Guard for two months now. Nobody goes in or out of congress, the White House, or the Supreme Court without dealing with a phalanx of GWG (Guys With Guns) supposedly there to protect the precious few from the unruly many (US citizens). It's an odd thing, this occupation of the nation's capitol. Nobody living can remember anything quite like it. Many questions about why troops are stationed in and around the US Capitol remain unanswered, but one thing is certain: the National Guard isn't there just for show. Somebody's afraid of something, and it's probably the people on the inside, afraid of the people on the outside.

Having the ability to pass laws that would give the elected people access to all the guns in the country, or, at least a record of who has guns, might, in their squeamish little brains, give them some comfort and maybe even prompt the removal of the barricades and armed guards surrounding and supposedly protecting them.

House Democrats (and a few Republicans) recently passed a couple of acts designed to exert more control over gun ownership in the United States. The proposed legislation has to clear the senate, but will need 60 votes to pass procedural hurdles, so it's unlikely that their dreams of nearly complete gun control will come to fruition. A few more Democrats in congress and some arm-twisting of Republicans, however, could result in bans on popular sporting rifles, registration of all guns bought or sold in the country (even gun sales between relatives, neighbors, or friends, and no time limit on how long the FBI could take to complete a background check (it's currently three days, but their legislation would allow the FBI to hold up gun sales and purchases indefinitely).

These measures certainly seem to be on the extreme end of the spectrum and some say even violate the second amendment, which, if anybody wishes to recall, reads as follows:

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed.

That seems pretty straightforward to anybody at a fifth-grade reading level or better. Apparently, the current occupiers of the Capitol don't appear to have much of a sense for following the US Constitution, nor do they seem to have a working understanding of the words, "shall not be infringed," with emphasis on the word "infringed."

For their edification, and yours, here's a commonly-used definition of "infringe" from which "infringed" is derived in the past tense or as a past participle (thanks to both Mrs. Meyers for grammar school education):

infringe
[in?frinj]
VERB
infringed (past tense) · infringed (past participle)
actively break the terms of (a law, agreement, etc.).
"making an unauthorized copy would infringe copyright"
synonyms:
contravene · violate · transgress · break · breach · commit a breach of · disobey · defy · flout · fly in the face of · ride roughshod over · kick against · fail to comply with · [more]
act so as to limit or undermine (something); encroach on.
"his legal rights were being infringed" · [more]
synonyms:
undermine · erode · diminish · weaken · impair · damage · compromise · limit · curb · check · place a limit on · encroach on · interfere with · disturb · disrupt · trespass on · impinge on · intrude on · enter · invade · barge in on · burst in on · entrench on

Gee, golly, those synonyms... erode, diminish, weaken, impair, damage, compromise, limit, curb... sure make it sound like our Founding Fathers wanted everybody to at least have unfettered access to guns, i.e., having the right to bear Arms. All the laws, regulations, and limitations on gun ownership and possession seem to fly in the face of the founding document of the United States of America. According to some sources, there are more than 55,000 laws regarding gun possession scattered through federal, state, and local statutes. That sure seems like a lot of infringing by people who are elected by "we, the people" to uphold the constitution.

No wonder they're scared. They don't seem to be doing a very good job at following the law.

Leaving the constitutional argument hanging out there like a sore thumb, more immediate concerns for ordinary people - and even oddballs and extraordinary folks - involve money, finance, and choosing on what to spend those juicy stimulus checks.

Some banks and other financial outfits have done some studies on the topic and they've discovered that people used previous stimulus checks on food, rent, and paying down debt, but also on electronics, clothes, video games, bikes, and toys at major retailers like Wal-Mart, Target, Best Buy, and others.

Bank of America concludes that the "stimmie" will largely go toward saving rather than spending, while coindesk.com sees a suspiciously high percentage of people planning on buying some bitcoin.

Other anecdotal evidence points out that much of the $1400 doled out to everybody earning less than $75,000 is going into stocks, and smaller amounts into other assets like gold or silver. Some people have already committed to buying guns and/or ammo, so the wants and needs of Americans really run the gamut of preferences, assumedly determined by how concerned about the future one may be.

People who are readying for Armageddon, full scale rioting, gun-grabbing, government overreach and so on are the ones shoring up their food and water supplies. These types used to be laughed at and called "preppers," but, since the run on toilet paper last Spring and the threat of more lockdowns and travel restrictions still loons, nobody's laughing at them any more. Today, they're being hailed as realists with good doses of common sense. Over the past year, it's a good bat that a large number of people have joined their ranks or at least began thinking seriously about what they need to have on hand for emergencies.

The gold bugs and silver stackers continue to believe there's upside in those "ancient relics" and they're right. Both of the precious metals have been employed as money for centuries. If the economy goes into the tank or things continue to spiral out of control. having some hard assets like bars or coins might be a handy trading tool. At the very least, they'll retain their value if everything else is going to heck.

As for guns and ammo, that would likely depend upon where you live and how secure you are in your possessions. Folks in the cities might think conditions have become more dangerous of late and they'd be right. Crime in large urban centers has risen dramatically over the past 12 months. Personal protection is high on the list when it comes to survival. People out in more rural areas are likely to be already well-armed, have solid supplies of food and water (many have their own wells or access to water in the wild), and may just sock that dough away in their IRA or savings account. Some will surely buy stocks or bitcoin or gold or silver or all of them.

Bottom line, one cannot go wrong with some canned goods, and, while $1400 worth of beans, peas, carrots, olives, pickles, and assorted culinary treats might be a bit on the extreme side, putting up $100 to $200 worth of extra food and bottled water seems like a no-brainer. It's all about perspective.

Here's looking at you, Green Giant.

At the Close, Monday, March 15, 2021:
Dow: 32,953.46, +174.82 (+0.53%)
NASDAQ: 13,459.71, +139.84 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 3,968.94, +25.60 (+0.65%)
NYSE: 15,775.50, +60.30 (+0.38%)