Friday, February 7, 2025

January Jobs +143,000, November, December 2024 Revised Higher; Amazon Flops; Big Football Game Sunday

Beyond the Washington D.C. DOGE spectacle, protesting Democrats, laysuits flying in every direction, Friday morning's January Non-farm Payroll report takes precedence over everything, at least for a few hours.

The ever-reliable BLS reports this morning that the U.S. economy created 143,000 jobs in January, less than estimated (160,000), but still solid, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.0%. The number was lower than last January's 166,000, but the numbers under Biden are hardly believable. November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from +256,000 to +307,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported. (My, oh, my, what accuracy! Only 23% and 20% off, respectively.)

This report isn't exactly what Wall Street wanted. The cumulative desire among the speculating class is for cratering employment figures, so that the Federal Reserve will have cause to lower the federal funds rate, making it less expensive for corporate execs to borrow money to repurchase shares of their companies. That's how money is made these days, other than, well, getting $7 million in subscriptions from the government, like Politico.

Whether any of these numbers matter much is a good question, given that there are likely to be thousands and thousands of government employees hitting the bricks in months ahead.

Moving on, the other headline this morning is Amazon earnings, which came in above estimates, though growth in AI-related services wasn't as expected, so it's trending lower Friday morning by about three percent.

Thus far, the week has gone well. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is ahead by 203 points, the NASDAQ is up 164, and the S&P shows a gain of 22 points.

Stock futures bounced around a bit after the jobs report release, but other than Dow futures up 35 points with a half hour to the opening bell, the NASDAQ and S&P futures are flat. Gold and silver are bid, slightly. WTI crude oil is at $71.02.

There is some kind of big football game this Sunday. The NFL prohibits commercial use of the term "Super Bowl", so you didn't see that. Maybe call it the NFL Championship? In any case, Fearless Rick has thoughts, theories, Taylor Swift, and picks over at IdleGuy.com Sports.

Enjoy the show, the game, the weirdness all around. Take Monday off. The day after big football games should be national holidays. Maybe Elon Musk can have Presidents' Day moved up a week or so in the name of efficiency, or, make every Monday from September through March (lest we forget March Madness) a mandatory day off without pay. Most federal employees take Mondays off anyhow.

Have a Happy!

At the Close, Thursday, February 6, 2025:
Dow: 44,747.63, -125.65 (-0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,791.99, +99.66 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 6,083.57, +22.09 (+0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 20,157.58, +28.69 (+0.14%)

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Stocks Continue Push Toward All-Time Highs; Gold Rocketing Higher Every Day; Trump, Musk, DOGE Continue Downsizing Government

At the rate Elon Musk and his merry band of disruptors at DOGE are going, the federal budget will be balanced next year.

That may sound like hyperbole, but the reality is that the corruption, fraud, and waste in Washington D.C. is so extensive and well-ingrained into every agency and department that cutting out $1.7 trillion might not be all that difficult. And then, there's clawbacks to consider. And, department closures, buyouts, lower employee headcount.

DOGE is currently inside the offices of the Medicare/Medicaid complex, which accounts for 22% of federal spending, some $1.5 trillion. It's a safe bet that between overpaid staff, fraudulent payments, and associated graft, there will be $500 billion cut right out of the heart of the nation's welfare health system.

When DOGE gets around to the Pentagon, Department of Defense and the other agencies that have been throwing away or giving to special interests and friends billions in taxpayer dollars for the last 40 years, the amounts will stagger the imagination. Americans will likely be calling for the heads of House members and Senators who were all too eager to play along.

It's great entertainment and very satisfying for the American public, but there should be rage that it's gone on for so long. Thanks to President Trump and Elon Musk, the days of handouts, carve-outs, hush money, kickbacks, lobbyists writing bills, and corruption are OVER.

By the middle of summer, heads will be rolling. Congresspeople, lobbyists, corporate types, and high-level government operatives will be getting their passports updated, shredding documents, closing bank accounts. Assuredly, a lot of that is already happening.

In the end, there's going to be a big void in the budget and at least as big a hole in GDP, since government spending accounts for about 40%. The effect on stocks is probably going to be negative, but by how much, nobody is really certain.

For now, Wall Street is content to just accept the carnage as collateral damage and keep pushing stocks higher. The major indices are closing in on all-time highs again.

On the other hand, gold continues to set new highs, day after day. Earlier this morning, gold touched $2,894 on the COMEX. $3,000 within months looks like a done deal. Silver continues to lag, despite widespread reports of shortages. It's trading on the COMEX around $32.50 this morning, but charts indicate a major breakout within months if not weeks.

WTI crude oil is reeling. It hit a low of $70.84 on Tuesday, but has rebounded somewhat, back above $71/barrel.

Enjoy the show.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 5, 2025:
Dow: 44,873.28, +317.24 (+0.71%)
NASDAQ: 19,692.33, +38.31 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 6,061.48, +23.60 (+0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 20,128.89, +164.29 (+0.82%)



Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Market Bullishness, Complacency May Lead to Missing Bigger Picture; Trump Administration Turning World Upside Down

With stocks remaining close to all-time highs - within 2-4% currently - there's a tendency in human nature to become complacent. It's when everything seems to be going well that something seemingly coming out of nowhere becomes a cause of grief and panic.

Today's post will examine some of the looming issues that may have profound effects on stock performance in the short, medium, and long term, but mostly, these projections will look at the next six to 18 months, or, until about the middle (June, July) or 2026.

First, however, a few companies that reported earnings Tuesday and Wednesday, prior to the open, should be examined.

Estee Lauder (EL) was rocked on Tuesday, down 16% after reporting its fiscal second quarter 2025 earnings. Adjusted earnings of 62 cents per share beat most estimates (which are adjusted lower all the time), but the bottom line was down 29% from earnings of 88 cents in the year-ago quarter. Gross revenue was also down year-on-year. This is a huge consumer outfit, and it's forecasting slower and lower for the next quarter and beyond.

This company is, and has been, in big trouble for the past three years, though one would hardly know it given the lack of reporting by the financial media. Shares of EL hit a high on December 31, 2021, of 370. Tuesday it closed at 69.47, representing an 80% loss. But, that's not a problem, because (sarcasm warning) bitcoin fixes that or "muh, AI." EL's price/earnings ratio is somewhere in the stratosphere. Nobody's buying it.

This is a recurring theme that Money Daily has been reporting on for months. Companies beat estimates, stock is rated a buy by analysts, Wall Street coos happily, but, underneath the hood, revenue and profit are down from the same period a year ago. Wall Street and the financial press are famous for whistling past graves, mostly those of unsuspecting retail investors, people with their life savings tied up in 401k, IRA, and other retirement-type vehicles.

The most prominent company that reported Tuesday was Alphabet (GOOG), parent of Google, Youtube, et. al. The company, from all outward appearances, had a solid quarter, beating top and bottom line. So, why is the stock down seven percent pre-market? Maybe AI can tell us? Probably not, though the company announced it was planning to spend $75 billion building out its AI architecture. Maybe that's a bit much.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported Tuesday post-close, and the stock got hit by as much as a nine percent decline. With Wednesday's opening bell less than an hour ahead, it's still down seven percent. AMD is a chip-maker, caught up in the whole AI trend, but they're a competitor to Nvidia, and they're losing the war.

Analysts have cut their price targets on the stock, down to around a consensus of 140. Ha, ha, the stock is going to open around 107 or 108 and nobody's buying. These analysts are so optimistic, like stocks never go down. Sure, buy the dip, dips--ts.

One company that usually reports rosy earnings is Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), and they did so again Tuesday night. So, why is the stock down five percent pre-market? Why does this question keep re-appearing company after company? A good question, and anybody with a good answer is probably preparing to short everything in sight, because, usually, when companies beat expectations but then sell off, the next thing you know is they're losing money the next quarter or, at least not making enough to keep investors happy.

And then you end up living on the street in a box. (just thought that should be thrown in)

Next up, Disney (DIS), which beat estimates and is only down less than one percent. Should anybody buy Disney stock? Seems a safe bet, maybe. At least they're not involved in spending billions on AI infrastructure. But, the stock is down from a high of 197 in March, 2021, to 113 as of Tuesday's close. Streaming? Mickey Mouse? Theme Parks? Maybe a pass on putting much money into this still-somewhat-WOKE company. Prospects are not without risk. Next!

Thought there might be a winner in Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). However, even though the company did well, shares are being pummeled prior to the open, down more than four percent.

Earnings: $194.9 million in Q4 vs. -$304.4 million in the same period last year. EPS: $1.28 in Q4 vs. -$2.03 in the same period last year. Excluding items, Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. reported adjusted earnings of $226.0 million or $1.49 per share for the period.

Those are solid numbers. Something is not adding up.

Last, Uber (UBER). Ooops, sorry. Here's a cross-section of headlines on the company's earnings: Strongest quarter ever, operating income well short of estimates, earnings, gross bookings outlook disappointing.

Well, shares are only down six percent heading toward the open.

Here's why all these stocks are falling and people are beginning to be a little less optimistic about future prospects, and this is only the short list:

  • Stocks are generally overpriced and have been for quite a while.
  • President Trump is upsetting the apple cart in Washington D.C. and around the world.
  • Elon Musk is exposing the extreme levels of theft and corruption in the U.S. congress. Some House members and Senators may be looking at a choice of options ranging from jail time, to extensive investigations, to retirement. It's very serious and everybody knows it.

Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty, and President Trump is bringing buckets-full of it. He and his henchmen in the cabinet are going to gut the government, end the handouts, bribes, kickbacks, and generally destroy the "go along to get along" good buddy system in congress, which is where the evil has been for a long time. The last four years may have been the worst of it, but the corruption goes back at least fourty.

Considering that the U.S. government is $36 trillion in debt, most of it squandered lining the pockets of legislators and campaign contributors, it might occur to President Trump that the American people shouldn't be saddled with that kind of debt.

What could Trump do? Default on some, maybe, but more likely re-negotiate. Instead of paying 3 or 4 percent interest, he may want that cut to one or 1.25%, helping the American public by lowering the cost of borrowing. Additionally, once the President and his people are done tearing the heart out of official Washington, the unemployment rate is going to be around six or seven percent, and all those government bureaucrats can start life over again as roofers, construction workers, fast food employees or crop pickers. It's not going to be easy, or pretty, but, one thing it is is NECESSARY.

The rot and corruption needs to be completely wrung out of the system to enable a proper new beginning. There will be a deep recession, but it's likely to be short. And, inflation? Don't worry about that. Prices are about to come down hard on food, energy, and housing, because there isn't going to be much in the way of demand and there's plenty of supply in food and gas, and yes, even housing, if regulations are lifted and zoning laws gutted.

This is why stocks are beating street estimates but losing ground. The world is being turned upside down, and, while it's a good thing and necessary, it does not come without an inordinate share of bumps and bruises along the way.

Good luck.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
Dow: 44,556.04, +134.13 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 19,654.02, +262.06 (+1.35%)
S&P 500: 6,037.88, +43.31 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 19,964.61, +94.28 (+0.47%)

Markets That Respond in Real Time to Geo-Political Events are Dangerously Clinging to Prior False Narratives

The world needed Donald J. Trump in the White House so badly. The need was palpable. Now, we’re beginning to see why.

Monday's market response to his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada were, in a sickeningly cynical manner, hilarious.

First, the futures markets sent stocks skidding lower, which extended into the opening hour of the cash session. When Mexico's president, Claudia Sheinbaum, agreed to send military troops to the Southern border and crack down on border crossings and trafficking of humans and drugs into the United States in exchange for a month's reprieve on imposition of the tariffs, markets were relieved.

Stocks jumped.

Later in the session, ineffectual Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to similar terms, markets shrugged and moved on, still with a sense of doubt and uncertainty, finishing lower, though only slightly.

What happened to USAid offices over the weekend and into Monday morning, with Elon Musk and his merry bank of DOGE staffers diving headlong into slush fund records and oceans of graft and corruption, is a sign of things to come. While USAid was likely the major conduit of hush money and payoffs to congressional grifters, other departments will be found to be similarly weak and dishonest about their expenses.

Just wait until DOGE begins to examine the Defense Department. That's when the real bombs - truth bombs - go off.

As for markets that react like Pavlovian dogs to Washington's whistles, it's all been done before. Rich valuations, the product of too much hype, hope, and speculation, always end up in a dumpster fire of despair.

It's worth noting that President Trump, who hailed stock market performance in his first go-round as President, hasn't but once mentioned Wall Street antics or praised their gains or leadership.

All of the tech billionaires - Bezos, Zuckerberg, Ellison, et. al. - bestowed riches on the Trump inauguration and were prominent in attendance. They don't care about stock prices or whether they're worth $100 billion or $50 billion or even $25 billion on paper. They have power, access, and, so long as they toe the line and kiss the ring, they'll be just fine, thank you.

Markets at nose-bleed levels and valuations that would make Michael Milken blush are more the product of slick salesmanship and the greed of passive investors. The baby-boomers, millennials, and tag-alongs from generations X, Y, and Z, will never see what's coming, even though it's staring them in the face.

In the meantime, party on. While there may not be much more in terms of upside for the general markets, there's still ample time to get out of Dodge before the sheriff, tariffs, and the Man from DOGE show up.

At the Close, Monday, February 3, 2025:
Dow: 44,421.91, -122.75 (-0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,391.96, -235.49 (-1.20%)
S&P 500: 5,994.57, -45.96 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,870.33, -128.50 (-0.64%)



Sunday, February 2, 2025

WEEKEND WRAP: Trump Tariffs Imposed; Illegals Protesting Deportation; Gold Makes New Record; Everything Points to Dis-inflation or Deflation

Designed to hit the Sunday talk shows, on Saturday, February 1, President Trump issued tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, with the focus on America’s North American neighbors. China is only facing 10% tariffs, which won't affect inflation much, but Mexico and Canada got the harshest treatment with 25% tariffs on goods available for consumption and 10% on energy imports as the President issued an Executive Order expanding the national emergency at the Southern border to include the Northern border.

Here's the kicker. With the Trump administration steadfast in its efforts to arrest, detain, and repatriate (deport) illegal migrants, there will be fewer useless eaters and "undocumented persons" buying anything. Trump is also cutting off funds to the NGOs which passed out money, assistance, food stamps, and all manner of grift to illegals, which should turn out to be dis-inflationary if not outright deflationary. Any price hikes due to tariffs should, over time, be offset by decreased demand. Once Trump's immigration czar, Tom Homan, has deported a few million illegals, supply-demand will correct toward lower demand in the face of potentially less supply, the net result being minimal in terms of prices.

The process is likely to take time. Relieving the country of millions of takers is not going to happen overnight, but, in the long run, it is best for the U.S. economy to be built upon the shoulders and labor of actual citizens, not imposters. Already, reports are emerging of illegals staging mass protests in cities across America, though the mainstream media is, as usual, negligent in reporting on any anti-immigrant activity. There are also contractors and small businesses who are suffering slowdowns due to lack of (illegal immigrant) labor, essentially in roofing, construction, farming, food processing, landscaping, housekeeping, service, and other menial jobs that are generally the province of illegals.

Changes in the makeup of America's population are going to be radically realigned over the next four years. Expect the U.S. population to shrink by as much as eight to 10 million adults and another two to three million children. Americans have had their fill of illegals draining resources meant for American citizens. Restoring balance and righteousness is at the core of Trump's America First policies.

Long story short, disruptions in employment, retail, and consumption will be a feature, not a bug, for the next six to 18 months, and may result in a short, and possibly deep recession. By summer of 2026, most of the criminal elements of the cartels will have been dealt with, and well over three million people will have been deported. Jobs that "American's cant or won't do" will ultimately pay more, providing opportunities for people who actually want to work and be paid for their labor.

Should the plans afoot by President Trump and Elon Musk's DODE come to fruition, temporary disruptions are likely to be ofset with positive gains in employment of Americans at competitive wages. Dealing with import prices will be a longer journey that involves re-shoring of manufacturing and production to the United State. Policy changes and regulatory relief will usher in an era of prosperity with limited inflationary pressure. More money will circulate within America's borders by Americans buying American-made goods and services. The U.S. economy will emerge as a domestic mercantilistic construct that serves its citizens properly.


Stocks

Friday's stock market rout may prove to be significant as the first week of February commences. While the major indices showed a positive "January Effect" (the idea that as goes January, so goes the rest of the year), shakiness in tech and energy appear to be pointing in another direction. Dow Theorists (are there any left?) will take note of confirmation by the Dow Jones Transportation Average of the primary trend reversal begun back in December, when the Industrials were sent to the woodshed on 11 consecutive sessions.

Beginning on December 1, the Trannies dropped 13 of 14 sessions, bouncing off two-month lows to regain some momentum with the Dow Industrials' January sugar rush. Vastly underperforming the Industrials, the Trannies may now be in the leadership position. It would be worthwhile to watch both averages for correlations, because they are currently sending a strong sell signal. Investors were piling out of techs and into the Dow and their relatively higher dividend-paying issues, seeking shelter from the storm that is brewing in international markets as tariffs and taxes begin to take their tolls.

NASDAQ is struggling to stay above its 50-day moving average. Tech tocks were battered by China's DeepSeek open source AI model, which blew apart some of big tech's subscription revenue forecasts and made heavy investments in chips and energy infrastructure appear to be less-than-optimal use of funds. Bull market bubbles are typified by mal-investment - a term that's become obsolete in the current financial jargon - and tech hustling into mass capital injections is beginning to look like text-book application. Hype is one thing. False promises, based on false premises, is the stuff of market crashes.

Adding in the Trump/Musk effect and the current dismantling of the deep state, geo-political turmoil, and mass arrests and deportations of illegals from the U.S. mainland makes for a very unsettled environment, just the condition Wall Street abhors.

The week ahead will be not quite as busy as last week for fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings reports, with the focus on Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Disney (DIS), Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK), PayPal (PYPL), and Palantir (PLTR).

Monday: (before open) Tyson (TSN), Kyocera (KYOCY); (after close) Rambus (RMBS), Clorox (CLX), Palantir (PLTR)

Tuesday: (before open) Merck (MRK), Estee Lauder (EL), Pfizer (PFE), Spotify (SPOT), PayPal (PYPL), Pepsico (PEP); (after close) AMD (AMD), Snap (SNAP), Amgen (AMGN), Prudential (PRU), Chipolte Mexican Grill (CMG), Alphabet (GOOG), Electronic Arts (EA)

Wednesday: (before open) Toyota (TM), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Johnson Controls (JCI), Uber (UBER), Disney (DIS); (after close) Ford (F), MetLife (MET), ARM (ARM), AMSC (AMSC), O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY), Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday: (before open) Roblox (RBLX), Hershey (HSY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Yum Brands (YUM), Lilly (LLY), Peloton (PTON), ConocoPhillips (COP); (after close) Cloudfare (NET), Amazon (AMZN), Pinterest (PINS),

Friday: (before open) Avantar (AVTR), Canopy Growth (CGC), CBOE (CBOE).

The data calendar is not substantial until later in the week, highlighted by January Retail Sales on Thursday, and the January Non-farm Payroll report on Friday. Wednesday's ADP private sector jobs report should give a sneak peek at Friday's NFP, expected to be a clunker, with estimated centered around 160,000 or whatever the first NFP report for the Trump administration can dream up.

Friday also sees the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey results.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date 1 Mo 2 Mo 3 Mo 4 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr
12/27/2024 4.44 4.43 4.31 4.35 4.29 4.20
01/03/2025 4.44 4.35 4.34 4.31 4.25 4.18
01/10/2025 4.42 4.35 4.36 4.33 4.27 4.25
01/17/2025 4.43 4.35 4.34 4.32 4.28 4.21
01/24/2025 4.45 4.36 4.35 4.32 4.25 4.17
01/31/2025 4.37 4.37 4.31 4.33 4.28 4.17

Date 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr
12/27/2024 4.31 4.36 4.45 4.53 4.62 4.89 4.82
01/03/2025 4.28 4.32 4.41 4.51 4.60 4.88 4.82
01/10/2025 4.40 4.46 4.59 4.70 4.77 5.04 4.96
01/17/2025 4.27 4.33 4.42 4.52 4.61 4.91 4.84
01/24/2025 4.27 4.33 4.43 4.53 4.63 4.91 4.85
01/31/2025 4.22 4.27 4.36 4.47 4.58 4.88 4.83

For the second straight week, treasuries were relatively well-behaved, with the majority of bills, notes, and bonds slipping slightly, thanks, not to the FOMC and the Fed, but to bond buyers seeking and finding value in fixed income.

Notably, despite the Fed's reluctance to lower the federal funds target rate, 30-day bills droppd eight basis points, a reflection of increasing interest on the short end of the curve. Yields on all notes dropped slightly, losing five to seven basis points over the course of the week. The curve continues to flatten, with spreads diminishing or remaining on hold. 2s-10s have stabilized at +36. 30-day/30-year full spectrum is a match at +36, down four basis points from last week.

As was evidenced on Wednesday, FOMC meetings and the Fed in general are increasingly becoming less and less consequential. The economy doesn't run on interest rates alone and the era of investors hanging on every syllable coming out of a Federal Reserve official's mouth is coming to a happy ending. With a yield curve ultimately up-sloping from around 3.50-3.75 to 4.75-5.00, the nature and importance of treasury rates will become more matter-of-fact than a parlor game played by the ultra-rich and connected and more a reflection of a stabilized U.S. economy focused on prosperity and growth rather than greed and gamesmanship.

As the Fed diminishes in importance as it gradually lowers the federal funds target rate, normalization will provide a solid foundation for a better economy. Lending rates between 3.5% and 6.0% (mortgages) will become normative and the Fed's actions will become more of an afterthought than a primary consideration. America's debt burden, from consumers, to businesses, to governments needs to be put in order, a process that necessarily won't happen overnight.

Expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold at least until June or July and possibly even September unless some exogenous event changes the economic landscape in a significant way, such as a serious recession, which remains likely, but should eventually be sharp and short-lived. A longer term view sees the federal funds target rate at around 3.50% by mid-2026, implying three more cuts of 0.25%. Inflation will cease to be a concern of the Fed and more a priority on the fiscal side.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices backed off again during the week, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to Friday's artificially-inflated finish at $73.81. The sudden jerk higher from a low of $72.00 was likely the result of speculation over Trump's imposition of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. With a 10% hike on energy imports from Canada, there's little to no upside pressure on oil prices outside of the usual speculative gaming. Oil prices continue to decline, and should eventually find a quiet resting place in the range of $55-65 over time, possibly lower, though prices around $45-50 would be indicative of recession, if not outright deflation.

There's a possibility of global slowing due to tariffs and trade imbalances being seriously confronted. America, Russia, parts of Africa and South America have little to worry about from lower fuel prices, In fact, cheap energy in abundance produces prosperity. See America in the 1950s and 1960s and present-day Russia for reference.

Those countries dependent on energy imports, including the giant economies of India and China, may suffer short term from energy disruptions, but eventually, cheaper crude will flow to them as well, all of this making for a dis-inflationary environment globally under a peaceful co-existence sponsored by the leaders of the "Big Four", Russia, China, India, and the United States.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump down a nickel from last week, at $3.07 a gallon Sunday morning. People who are touting inflation under Trump's watch are going to be proven serially incorrect. Prices have stabilized and a coming down, despite the fear-mongering in the financial press that predicts gas prices to rise by as much as 70 cents a gallon. Please avoid listening to TV morons spouting off on subjects they know nothing about, like economics.

California continues to lead the way, up a few cents from last week, at $4.43 a gallon.

Pennsylvania prices dropped to $3.35, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.14. Connecticut ($3.07) was slightly lower while Massachusetts ($3.00) declined two cents. Maryland prices were lower by a dime, at $3.20.

Illinois fell two cents, to $3.23. Ohio ($2.85) and Indiana ($2.94) were both significantly lower and likely headed down further.

Mississippi and Oklahoma ($2.64) continue to vie for the low-price crown. Following are Texas ($2.67), Louisiana and Arkansas ($2.72). South Carolina slipped to $2.73, ahead of Kentucky ($2.76), Alabama ($2.78) and Tennessee ($2.79). Kansas ($2.82), Missouri ($2.88) and Georgia ($2.91) follow. Florida's price drop was dramatic, to $3.05, after $3.21 last week.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 28 U.S. states, though that number will likely increase to more than 40 in months ahead, despite summer "driving" season. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.24) is up another ten cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.52, Nevada at $3.62, and Washington at $3.92, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.03) and Idaho ($3.07) were higher, as were all Western states.


Bitcoin

This week: $98,218.74
Last week: $105,019.30
2 weeks ago: $105,074.80
6 months ago: $61,732.21
One year ago: $43,004.49
Five years ago: $9,895.13

Bitcoin was close to $106,000 on Thursday. It's shed more than $7,000 into Sunday morning. It's such an obvious scam. Bitcoin, as well as all other crypto-frauds are not stores of value, nor are they reliable media of exchange. They facilitate nothing more than cover for hiding off-balance sheet bank assets and criminal activity (same thing).

The crash to zero can't come soon enough. 16 years of grifting is more than enough.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.14; last week: 89.48

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30

Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24

Gold set a new all-time record on the Comex this week, checking in at $2838.00 on Friday before the usual cram-down by the LBMA and Comex riggers sent it to a close almost $30 lower. Silver was up on the week, substantially. Expect both to continue accelerating to the upside. Consider any knockdowns a gift. You know what to do.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price Low High Average Median
1 oz silver coin: 35.00 43.95 39.32 39.34
1 oz silver bar: 39.00 45.46 41.31 40.50
1 oz gold coin: 2,853.00 3,037.93 2,947.72 2,945.88
1 oz gold bar: 2,875.00 3,003.79 2,937.86 2,934.70

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell moderately, to $40.18, a drop of 73 cents from the January 19 price of $40.91 per troy ounce.

This may indicate some buyer pushback against high premia. 10-15% should be standard.


WEEKEND WRAP

Carry on.

At the Close, Friday, January 24, 2025:
Dow: 44,544.66, -337.47 (-0.75%)
NASDAQ: 19,627.44, -54.31 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 6,040.53, -30.64 (-0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 19,998.82, -167.40 (-0.83%)

For the Week:
Dow: +120.41 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ: -326.86 (-1.64%)
S&P 500: -60.71 (-1.00)
NYSE Composite: +1.35 (+0.01%)
Dow Transports: -299.11 (-1.80%)