Good Money vs. Bad Money, Trump and the Constitution; Silver Breaking Out; Draft Kings Losing Money a Winning Be

In the likeliest scenario, the Fed won't raise or lower interest rates significantly (remember: to quell inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s, Fed Chairman Paul Volker raised the effective federal funds rate all the way to 19%) over the next few years. There will be shrieking and hollering aplenty, but the federal funds target rate will range between 3.50 and 5.25%.

Having little to no effect on inflation, the Federal Reserve will be seen as incompetent and President Trump will move to abolish it. That would require action by congress, which could become a reality after the midterms of 2026. In the meantime, Trump may issue some executive order or orders and direct the Treasury to issue U.S. currency redeemable in gold and/or silver.

The price of gold in such an instance could be as high as $20,000 per ounce, some economists target it even higher. No matter what, it's going to be higher than it is currently. There seems to be no argument about that.

Timing and price levels are the two main points of argument at this late stage. There's also the possibility that Trump does nothing about the Fed or the dollar vis-a-vis the constitution, which pegs a U.S. dollar as equal to 371.25 grains of silver, meaning that a U.S. dollar is defined as containing 0.7734375 troy ounces of silver.

Well, if silver is around its current level of $32 an ounce, a constitutional dollar would be worth $24.75 in Federal Reserve Notes, making it, by far, the preferred currency. Some people, such as Alasdair Macleod and James Turk, both of goldmoney.com, suggest that the two currencies could circulate simultaneously, until, one or the other is eliminated.

Gresham's Law states that "bad money drives out good" and is often misunderstood. The principal takeaway is that people will spend the bad money and hoard the good money. Thus, it's entirely possible that the U.S. dollar, represented by the Fed's Federal Reserve Notes, will continue to be the currency of choice, while savers put away the constitutional money until such a time that it becomes officially the U.S. currency. Those constitutional dollars, redeemable in part or in whole for gold and/or silver, may be used as a vehicle for settling international trade balances.

That there could be two competing currencies is entirely plausible. As is currently the case, there already exists a school of thought that considers gold and silver currency, and further, the only true form of "money." So, gold, silver, and Federal Reserve Notes are already circulating through the U.S. economy, along with bitcoin and thousands of other alt-coins in the cryptoverse. It wouldn't be surprising to witness further decimation in the value of the Fed's currency by competition, which is ultimately a good thing.

Getting to market conditions this Friday morning, stock futures are tumbling in the pre-market, though not to any egregious level. Dow futures are down $122, and S&P futures off about $10 at 8:00 am ET.

It wouldn't be a shock if stocks sold off to end the week. It's been a persistent pattern. The Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P each sold off the past three Fridays, January 24, 31, and February 7. Maybe it's just herd behavior or a function of stock option expiration. Gone are the days of options expiry on the thrid Friday of each month. The current market structure accommodates not only options expiring on every Friday, but also every day, as in 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options. In more ways than anyone dares to admit, derivatives (options, futures, swaps, repos, etc.) drive the actual market.

Gold came close to making another all-time high this morning on the COMEX. The continuous contract topped out at $2,963.20, precisely three dollar short of the high made Monday night. Silver made a big move in the quiet hours, hitting $34.16 earlier this morning. That's a three-month high, but anybody with skin in the game thinks $35 is a mortal lock, probably within weeks, and $40 will follow as day follow night. It would be stunning if silver doesn't exceed $40 an ounce this year. That would be about a 36% gain off the December 31, 2024 price of $29.24, pretty much par for the course these days.

It's noted with some irony that Draft Kings (DKNG) reported fourth quarter and full year results after the bell Thursday, missing its earnings target of -0.15 cents by losing 0.28, or, almost $138 million. The irony is that DraftKings purports to make money off gamblers, but hasn't made a single dime. In fact, the company has accumulated losses of $6,441,228,000. That's SIX BILLION, or, in other words, there needs to be a lot more losers using their platform. "Nice business model ya got there. Shame if anything would happen to it." Shares are up five percent in the pre-market. Go figure.

With the opening bell to close out the week in less than an hour, unless the bottom falls out today, the majors are looking at a winner for the week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 408 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 422, and the S&P is up - after making a record close Thursday - 89 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,711.43, +342.87 (+0.77%)
NASDAQ: 19,945.64, +295.69 (+1.50%)
S&P 500: 6,115.07, +63.10 (+1.04%)
NYSE Composite: 20,181.29, +118.98 (+0.59%)

PPI Comes in Red Hot at +3.5% Annualized; Wall Street Says "Buy All the Things"' Because Inflation in Clown World

Yesterday, the BLS released January CPI, which showed an increase of 0.5% and a year-over-year increase of three percent. Simply put, if CPI continues to rise at 0.5% monthly, the annual increase will not be three percent at the end of 2025, but six percent, yet the Federal Reserve insists that it finished its work on taming inflation well over a year ago and actually cut interest rates by a full percent from September through December of last year.

If it wasn't so horrible, the Fed's political miscalculation to try to keep one Donald J. Trump out of the white House by lowering the federal funds target rate by half a percent in September (just in time for the election of Kamala the Hutt), it would be laughable. Given that prices are rising instead of falling, nobody's laughing and nobody is listening to a word the Fed has to say, for a multitude of good reasons: they're wrong, they work in the interest of their shareholders (major commercial banks) instead of the American public, they have destroyed the value of the U.S. currency by 98% since inception in 1913, and, they're about to be extinguished by the man they tried so hard to defeat. Trump is hell-bent on restoring constitutional money to the United States. There is no need for the Federal Reserve (a private bank) if the Treasury issues US$.

What occurred yesterday on the major exchanges was familiar. Wall Street rejected the assumption that consumer prices actually matter, and, after futures collapsed on the CPI reading, when the cash market opened an hour later at what turned out to be the lows of the day on the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, the reaction was adverse, buying the dip, as if nothing mattered other than higher stock prices. The NASDAQ, particularly the most egregious performer of stock market magic, was down more than 220 points at the open yet finished the session with a gain of six points. Woo-hoo!

The Dow and S&P ended with losses, but they were both well above the opening lows.

So, were all those selling in the futures market just plain wrong, stupid, ignorant of the reality that stocks must go up all the time, or, are markets just wired to reflect the never-ending con game to buy anything the Wall Street horde is pushing? AI? Dotcom? Crypto? Bio-tech?

Maybe its something different. Maybe stocks will continue to rise because of inflation. In Weimar Germany and in Zimbabwe, during their bouts of hyperinflation, stocks soared. However, the reality of the situation exposed the lie: 200, 300, 500% gains in the stock market didn't stand a candle to inflation running at 600, 800, or more than 1000 percent. The price of their investments may have looked fine on paper, but their value was being decimated, and high stock prices today may be just a symptom of the underlying inflation disease.

Today, the BLS is treating the financial community to their estimate of Producer Price Inflation (PPI), which has been a mixed bag the past six months, but has inched higher the past two.

Here is the BLS headline statement:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.5 percent in December 2024 and 0.2 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand moved up 3.5 percent for the 12 months ended January 2025.

Leading the broad-based January advance in the index for final demand, prices for final demand services rose 0.3 percent. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in January after moving up 0.4 percent in December. For the 12 months ended in January, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.4 percent.

So, the unadjusted 3.5% annual inflation at the producer wellhead and 3.4% annual core producer inflation is good, no? NO. It's not good. Producer prices largely get passed onto consumers, so expect the CPI to continue going higher while the genii at the Fed do nothing.

Drilling down a bit to the BLS charts, PPI change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadjusted) looks like this:

August: +2.1%; September: +2.1%; October: +2.7%; November: +2.9%; December: +3.5%; January: +3.5%.

Now, all you math majors: is +3.5% inflation better than +2.1% inflation? Anybody notice a pattern developing?

These figures are all higher than what was expected, yet, upon the release, stock futures jumped higher, because, well, if the currency buys less, then stocks must be priced higher.

Makes perfect sense, in Clown World. (OK, OK, wait. Stock futures were down hard yesterday and stocks rallied, so today, futures are up, so stocks will fall? Mmmm, maybe not, since logic is not allowed in Clown World.)

At the Close, Thursday, February 13, 2025:
Dow: 44,368.56, -225.09 (-0.50%)
NASDAQ: 19,649.95, +6.10 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,051.97, -16.53 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: 20,062.31, -105.89 (-0.53%)

$1,090 Silver and Why CPI Won't Matter Very Much Longer; Inflation is Back, Baby; CPI up 0.5% in January, 3.0% Annualized

Wall Street and the financial press is going to continue to spew their nonsense about investing in stocks, inflation fears, interest rates and the Fed right up until the biggest story of the century slaps them - and millions of passive investors - in the face.

President Trump, like him or not, is on a mission to create America's "Golden Age." That is the term he used in his inaugural speech and only those with a narrow view of the world or none at all will deny his lofty goal.

By his invocation of the term "golden age", Trump envisions the United States, and, by extension, the world, to exist in a state of "primordial peace, harmony, stability, and prosperity." (Wikipedia)

Being ultimately a pragmatist, ushering in the "Golden Age" will require massive structural changes to the American political and financial systems, which is why Elon Musk, via DOGE, is largely dismantling the ramparts of government waste, fraud, and abuse, piece by piece, excess by excess, though the larger object of structural reform remains embedded in the financial system and the U.S. constitution.

Once Trump, Musk, and other appointees and allies root out the corrupt politicians that have fed at the public trough for decades and decimated the agencies and departments responsible for funneling money to House members and Senators (and probably a good number of mayors and governors), his troops will take aim on the ultimate prize: the Federal Reserve and their counterfeiting operation that has deprived America of its rightful prosperity.

Since 1913, when the Federal Reserve System was authorized by Congress, America has been transformed from a peaceful, prosperous nation to one of warfare and welfare, a system that is dying and is about to end.

Backing up this thesis is the recent inflow of gold to the United States from England and elsewhere, notably even India and China. Central banks, especially those in China, Russia, and India, have been buying and hoarding gold for the better part of the last 15 years and other central banks have taken heed and done likewise. Central bank purchases of gold have been at record levels the past three years (2022-24) and are likely to exceed those levels in 2025, with the unusual twist being that the United States will likely be the largest buyer, having to play catch up after years of denial and apathy.

In August, 2017, when Trunp's first Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, was dispatched to Fort Knox to have a look at the gold stored there, it was no accident or mere photo op. Trump sent Mnuchin specifically to see that the gold was still there, and, according to the Secretary, it was. It was the first visit to the facility by a Treasury Secretary since 1948.

The current and ongoing movement of tons of gold heading to American shores, while being largely dismissed or ignored by the vain and willfully blind financial press, is just the beginning of the biggest story of the century.

Gold hawks, such as James Turk, founder of goldmoney.com, recently opined on King World News that President Trump might be mulling (or planning for) the prospect of revoking President Nixon’s August 15, 1971, Executive Order to “suspend temporarily” the dollar’s link to gold. If true, and Trump puts the U.S. back on a gold standard, the changes will be monumental and highly beneficial to holder of gold and silver.

Turk goes further, expressing his belief that gold will be revalued at $10,900 per ounce, and the gold:silver ratio that for so long has been a product of financial repression by the countries that favor fiat currencies (all of them), but especially England, the European Union, the United States, Japan, and Switzerland via the COMEX, LBMA, Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), World Bank, and the IMF, would be declared at 10:1.

If Turk's prognostication turns out ot be true, long-suffering holders of gold and, by far, silver, stand to make enormous gains in wealth. A gold price of $10,900 and a gold:silver ratio of 10-1 implies a silver price of $1,090 per ounce.

For those who think it's not possible, consider that gold was $270 an ounce in 1999, and today is approaching $3,000, a more than tenfold increase. A revaluation to $10,900 would be little more than a tripling.

Head of research at goldmoney.com, Alasdair Macleod, on King World News chimes in with more detail about gold flows and the impact to global economics.

Naturally, there will be skeptics, those who favor continuation of the Federal Reserve's slave system of debt creation from thin air and fractional reserve banking and the government's $36 trillion black hole. All of Washington D.C. and Wall Street are tethered to the fraudulent currency system and recent protests from lawmakers to the dismantling of their favorite slush fund entities like USAid offer proof not only is the political system corrupt to the core, but that it is fed by an equally corrupt financial apparatus.

No matter which way the winds blow, there are choices to be made. Either continue in debt service to the Federal Reserve via income tax, withholding, and interest rate manipulation, or buy gold and/or silver, or both, and wait.

With all of that as background, at 8:30 am ET, the BLS released January CPI and it wasn't what the Fed or Wall Street stock pushers had in mind.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, after rising 0.4 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Inflation is re-emerging, without a doubt. The CPI releas send everything down: stock futures, oil, gold, silver, crypto, you name it.

Get ready for some serious recalculation of your retirement plans.

Buy Gold. Buy Silver. Do. It. Now.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 11, 2025:
Dow: 44,593.65, +123.24 (+0.28%)
NASDAQ: 19,643.86, -70.41 (-0.36%)
S&P 500: 6,068.50, +2.06 (+0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 20,168.21, +50.33 (+0.25%)

Stocks Churn; McDonald's Gains on Earnings Miss; Coca-Cola a Bright Spot; Gold Makes Another Record as Supply Comes to U.S.

Following Friday's slide, traders took little time to buy the perceived dip, boosting stocks right out of the gate and making highs for the day early in the session. For the most part, the major indices wandered in a tight range. The S&P 500 moved in a rnage of just 27 points, top to bottom, for the entire session.

Markets are somewhat directionless, mystified by the spell of the Trump agenda, which they haven't quite figured out, while also awaiting January CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday. In the interim, companies are still reporting full year 2024 and fourth quarter earnings, among them, McDonald's (MCD), which reported prior to Monday's open.

McDonald's had a good showing, up nearly 5.00% after it missed expectations top and bottom. Revenue for the fourth quarter fell 0.28% from a year ago to $6.39 billion, missing expectations for $6.45 billion. Adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 were below Wall Street's estimate of $2.84. The company attributed the quarterly decline to an E. coli outbreak that sent U.S. same store sales tumbling 1.4% from the same period a year ago.

These are the kind of desperate excuses and investment decisions that lead ultimately to bad outcomes. Revenue for all of 2024 was $25.92 billion versus $25.99 billion for 2023. Adjusted earnings per share were $11.39 in 2024 versus $11.74 in 2023. The stock has more than doubled over the past five years and hit a record high of 316 in October, 2024. It carries a dividend yield of just 2.30%, less than inflation, and a P/E of 27.

With immigration and freebies to illegals being cut off, Americans barely able to afford McDonald's offerings of food substitutes, a recession looming, and Mickey D's margins cratering, stock pickers should be shorting this stock rather than sending it higher on what were, effectively, lousy results, E. coli or no E. coli.

One commenter put it thusly: "Food at McDonalds tastes like a punishment for being poor."

Prior to Tuesday's open, Humana (HUM), British Petroleum (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), AutoNation (AN), Shopify (SHOP), and Marriott (MAR) all reported.

Briefly, serial under-performer Humana (HUM) posted a loss of $693 million, or -$5.76 a share, compared to a loss of $541 million, or -$4.42 a share a year ago. Stripping out one-time items, losses per share came in at -$2.16. Analysts expected an adjusted loss of -$2.21 a share. Humana was down 2.74% on Monday. In pre-market trading, it's up 3.20%. The stock hit a high of 554 in October, 2022 and has slid to 266 as of yesterday. This is not an investment; it's a trade.

British Petroeum (BP) reported its worst quarter in four years, missing expectations of 0.08 per share with a reported 0.07. The company cited weak refining margins, turnarounds at plants that lowered output and raised costs, as well as corporate charges for the decline in profit in the last three months of last year. OK, sure. Pass.

Coca-Cola (KO) was one of the bright spots, reporting earnings per share of 55 cents against 52 cents expected and 46 cents a year ago. Revenue for the quarter was $11.54 billion vs. $10.68 billion estimated.

AutoNation (AN) posted an earnings beat for the quarter, but net income was USD 186.1 million compared to USD 216.2 million a year ago. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago. Diluted earnings per share was USD 4.64 compared to USD 5.04 a year ago.

For the full year, revenue was USD 26,765.4 million compared to USD 26,948.9 million a year ago. Net income was USD 692.2 million compared to USD 1,021.1 million a year ago. Shares are marginally higher priro to the opening bell.

Shopify (SHOP) Q4 revenue surged 31.3%, but shares are bouncing around, down as much as seven percent pre-market. The company had adjusted earnings of 44 cents a share, topping estimates for 43 cents. In the year-ago quarter, earnings per share were 36 cents. Shares are close to all-time highs and the P/E ratio is over 100. Can Shopify succeed where others, like WIX or AMZN have? Looks a little pricey, but they are into AI and are making profits.

Marriott (MAR) posted full year revenue of $6.43 billion vs analyst estimates of $6.39 billion (5.5% year-on-year growth). Adjusted 4th quarter EPS was $2.45 vs. analyst estimates of $2.38. Share are lower due to middling guidance. Stock price is around 300 with a P/E over 30 and dividend yield of less than one percent. Hope they're doing share buybacks.

That's the equity roundup that's sent stock futures tumbling Tuesday morning. Dow futures: -$88; NASDAQ: -$96; S&P: -16.

Gold hit another all-time high early this A.M. at $2,968.50 on the COMEX. It's being beaten down, currently around $2,920 per ounce. Silver remains in the bargain basement, down this morning at $31.92. Supply has been flowing to the United States since Trump's election in November. Most don't know what to make of this recent phenomenon, but some are suggesting that ramping up gold purchases could be a sign that Trump ultimately intends to finish off the era of fiat money by eliminating the Federal Reserve. That would be a feather in Trump's All-American hat, but it's really too early to tell just what he's up to concerning the U.S. debt and the Fed.

Tuesday may be a little on the dull side with CPI for February topping the ticket Wednesday morning. After the bell Tuesday Doordash (DASH), Zillow Group (ZG), Lyft (LYFT), Gilead (GILD), Supermircro (SMCI) report.

Wednesday, before the bell, KraftHeinz (KHC), Ryder (R), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Generac (GNRC), and CVS Health (CVS) report.

At the Close, Monday, February 10, 2025:
Dow: 44,470.41, +167.01 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 19,714.27, +190.87 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 6,066.44, +40.45 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 20,117.88, +78.39 (+0.39%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Chaos at the Capital and Over Capital; Gold Soars as More Pours into US; Stocks Peaked? Treasuries Divergent

Three weeks into the second term of presidency for Donald J. Trump and what have we gotten?

Lots of people fired or quit, agencies being blown apart by DOGE, Democrats in congress running around screaming like somebody just stole their lunch money (Musk and Trump actually did).

Sounds like a WIN-WIN-WIN situation, because 1) wasteful spending, kickbacks, and corruption are being eliminated; 2) the government is downsizing its workforce, saving money, and; 3) Democrats are putting on quite a show for the American public, which is at the same time as entertaining as it is revealing about where all the money went.

Wait until they dig into the Ukraine funding, the Clinton foundation (billions stolen from Haiti), defense contractors. Those will make the USAid slush fund look like chump change, a bad tip, a rounding error.

Can we get the Epstein list and Diddy tapes released? Do you want to see suicides and hangings?

While the government willingly and thankfully self-destructs, Wall Street eyes the situation with a jaundiced eye and begins to question things. The S&P, NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average were down for a second straight week, with the Dow down as well this week after a small positive last week. The NYSE Composite has strung together four straight weekly gains, though the last two combined amounted to just 42 points up, less than 1/4 percent.

Stocks

Pattern recognition is something of an art, though it shouldn't be difficult to spot the changes since early December in the daily drift from morning highs to afternoon lows that have manifested themselves. One longer term pattern worth watching is that of the major indices as compared to those in early 2020, just prior to the big "plandemic" crash engineered by globalist forces.

Back then, the major indices were hitting new highs after an extended bull run that began in December 2018, similar to the current condition off the October 2022 lows. This does not suggest anything other than the patterns and time elements are well-aligned. In February 2020, stocks began to fall, culminating in a huge selloff in stocks, forcing extraordinary interest rate cuts and implementation of emergency programs by the Fed and direct payments to Americans from congress. The end result was massive money creation out of thin air and inflation, the likes of which hadn't been seen since the 1970s.

Considering the degree of chaos being fomented in Washington D.C. by the unraveling of the deep state and all the corruption, kickbacks, and levels of fraud that would make Al Capone jealous, the possibility of a major correction in stocks cannot be dismissed. Coupled with the mysterious on-shoring of massive quantities of gold, there's at least a non-zero possibility that the United States might suffer a constitutional crisis resulting in what would be a happy ending: trials and dismissals of large numbers of congress and elimination of the leeches at the Federal Reserve, a return to honest money issued by the U.S. Treasury at minimal cost (printing).

Wall Street, which prefers its bread buttered on both sides, would probably be against such a disorderly process and signal its displeasure by decisive selling pressure until there's resolution, which could take months if not years. The end result is an impoverished nation setting about rebuilding itself. Golden ages are built with gold, not paper. No matter what happens over the next six to 18 months, risk is ever-present and growing, gnawing away at investor confidence as the financial and political systems are pressured.

In the meantime, stocks and Wall Street will continue whistling past the graves of retail investors. Theshow must go on, as they say. The coming week will be chock-full of earnings reports and important data.

Monday: (before open) McDonald's (MCD), Tower Semicnductor (TSEM), CNA (CNA), Incyte (INCY); (after close) Vertex (VRTX), Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC), Inspire Medical (INSP)

Tuesday: (before open) Humana (HUM), British Petroleum (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), AutoNation (AN), Shopify (SHOP), Marriott (MAR); (after close) Doordash (DASH), Zillow Group (ZG), Lyft (LYFT), Gilead (GILD), Supermircro (SMCI)

Wednesday: (before open) KraftHeinz (KHC), Ryder (R), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Generac (GNRC), CVS Health (CVS), Bigen (BIIB); (after close) Kinross (KGC), Cisco (CSCO), MGM Resorts (MGM), Robinhood (HOOD), Reddit (RDDT)

Thursday: (before open) SONY (SONY), Duke Energy (DUK), Crocs (CROX), John Deere (DE); (after close) Twilio (TWLO), Draft Kings (DKNG), Coinbase (COIN), Roku (ROKU), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Applied Materials (AMAT), AirB&B (ABNB), Hecla Mining (HL)

Friday: (before open) Enbridge (ENB), Fortis (FTS), AMC Networks (AMCX), Moderna (MRNA).

Data drops will be substantial later in the week, starting with January CPI on Wednesday, and PPI Thursday. January Retail Sales on Friday probably won't cause much of a ruckus unless, of course, they're better than expected, in which case stocks would sell off because Wall Street's tortured logic has returned to a "good news is bad" condition in which economic and/or employment strength translates into further delays on Fed rate cuts (or rate hikes).

As far as CPI and PPI are concerned, analysts have been turning a blind eye to the data, preferring to always and everywhere consider inflation to be already conquered and thus, unimportant, without considering the reality of its persistence or the possibility of continued dis-inflation and recession or worse.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/03/2025	4.44	4.35	4.34	4.31	4.25	4.18
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/03/2025	4.28	4.32	4.41	4.51	4.60	4.88	4.82
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69

Treasuries began to manifest the ongoing confusion and chaos emanating from the nation's capital. With the short end virtually unchanged, a noticeable, structural divergence is evidenced in notes, with a split apparent between three and five year yields. Ones, twos, and threes all increased, but fives, sevens, and 10s went in the opposite direction, resulting in a severe flattening of the entire structure, from the lowest yield of 4.25% on 1-year notes to the high of 4.69% on 30-year bonds for a complete spread of less than one-half percent.

With the Fed and the Trump Treasury department at loggerheads, the result is a tug-of-war-and-will between the two most powerful forces in monetary and fiscal policy. While the Federal Reserve envisions no reason to lower the federal funds target rate at the base of all monetary policy, Trump and newly-installed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are taking a fiscal approach to long-term rates.

Bessent recently opined, "If we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself." For all appearances, Bessent can not just talk the talk, he is willing to walk the walk.

What the Fed - itself becoming inconsequential and something of an ineffectual mirage in monetary matters - does from here on out is not likely to be as important or influential in markets as what Trump and Treasury propose and perform. It should come as welcome relief to American citizens that their lives are no longer going to be ruled by the dictates of a private banking behemoth which is nearing the end of its useful existence. With Trump commanding markets, policy, and broadly, the economy, the Fed will likely be out of business in a few short years.

Gold isn't rushing to America for no good reason. The United States is rapidly aligning itself with BRICS nations that have been acquiring gold for the better part of the last two decades. In America's rush to catch up, the price of gold will matter much more than the yield on a one-month bill or one-year note.

The effect of this reordering of control over financial markets can be seen quite clearly in the spread on 2s-10s, which dropped dramatically this week, from +36 to +20. When the 10-year note yield falls below 4.00%, which it will, expect the Fed to cry foul and have no choice but to lower the federal funds target rate to 3.75-4.00% or lower, a full fifty basis points from its current level.

This condition of the federal government warring against policies of the Federal Reserve bears close attention going forward as the changes brought about are certain to be monumental.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, and finally to $71.06 at the New York close this Friday. The oil rout has only begun. Prices should continue coming down into the mid-to-low 60s and possibly further.

Energy, priced in dollars, will become cheaper and cheaper should President Trump's policies and deregulation take firm hold of markets.

Prices at the pump have yet to reflect lower input prices, i.e., crude, but they will, shortly. There's usually a lag of roughly a month as old supply is sold off and replaced by newer, cheaper fuel. The switch from winter to summer blends will also keep prices artificially elevated for a short time, but, considering the direction of the trend, almost every state other than Hawaii and California will probably see gas at the pump under $3.00 by May or June.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up four cents from last week, at $3.11 a gallon Sunday morning.

California continues to lead the way, up sharply from last week, at $4.56, from $4.43 a gallon.

Pennsylvania was stable at $3.36, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.08) was slightly higher along with Massachusetts ($3.01). Maryland is now the second-priciest in the Northeast ($3.19).

Illinois fell by a penny, to $3.22. Ohio ($3.03) and Indiana ($2.93) were both marginally higher, though the overall trend is headed down further.

Mississippi ($2.63) wrested back the tital of overall low-leader from Oklahoma ($2.71) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.70) are now both lower than Oklahoma. Tennessee ($2.73), Alabama ($2.78), and Arkansas ($2.79) come in just pennies lower than Kentucky and Kansas (both, $2.82), and South Carolina ($2.83). Missouri ($2.87) and Georgia ($2.93) follow. Florida's price popped back up a dime, to $3.15.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 24 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 28 last week.

Arizona ($3.26) is up another two cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.63, Nevada at $3.69. Washington was up eight cents to $4.00, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.17) was higher by ten cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $96,477.31
Last week: $98,218.74
2 weeks ago: $105,019.30
6 months ago: $60,463.20
One year ago: $47,746.95
Five years ago: $8,531.39

Bitcoin was close to $106,000 on Thursday, January 30, less than two weeks ago. It can't die soon enough. Those hodlers hoping for bitcoin to become part of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund might as well be living in Wonderland along with Alice and the Mad Hatter.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.66; last week: 87.14

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10

Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19

Gold soared to another record close on Friday, up $76.80 for the week while silver actually fell a nickel, proving once again the nearly-complete disregard for silver as a monetary metal, at least according to COMEX and the LBMA.

Bemused silver stackers should be reminded that silver remains the measure of U.S. constitutional money despite the many efforts over the years by central bankers, legislators, and other nefarious people to destroy it in its role as the money of gentlemen. Once again, the blatant disregard for silver sets up yet another buying opportunity for true believers. A gold:silver ratio indicates gold in an overbought condition with silver lagging and the obvious investment choice going forward.

There is perhaps something of a buyer's strike or remorse setting in. Silver holders are likely to be less-than-enthusiastic about this most recent slap in the face. Prices on ebay reflect a lull in demand. When silver regains its rightful place as a monetary metal, the price will soar. Some believe triple digits are possible, and they may be on the right track. A gold:silver ratio of even 25 would put silver at $115.44 TODAY. When sanity is eventually restored and fiat currencies dead and buried, silver should command a price commensurate with the historical 12:1 or 16:1 ratio to gold.

The United State constitution mandates that 1 US dollar should equal 371.25 grains of silver, this means that the dollar is defined as containing 0.7734375 troy ounces of silver. If silver was backing our currency, we would be by far the wealthiest nation on Earth by orders of magnitude.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.00	40.00	38.14	38.06
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	46.95	41.00	40.50
1 oz gold coin:	2,935.00	3,138.40	3,035.46	3,041.23
1 oz gold bar: 2,972.10	3,081.84	3,008.20	2,999.45

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell for a third straight week, to $39.43, a decline of 75 cents from the February 2nd price of $40.18 per troy ounce.

Once more, silver is indicating buyer pushback against high premia. 10-15% should be standard. Besides, with the COMEX continuing to pressure the silver price, why would anybody pay over $40 when spot is $31-32?

WEEKEND WRAP

“You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” - Ayn Rand

Enjoy the game. Fearless Rick has posted his pick and the coin flip pick, plus 19 Super Bowl quizzes, popular prop bets, theories and more at IdleGuy.com Sports.

Also, scores and MVPs of every Super Bowl from 1967 to the present.

At the Close, Friday, February 7, 2025:
Dow: 44,303.40, -444.23 (-0.99%)
NASDAQ: 19,523.40, -268.59 (-1.36%)
S&P 500: 6,025.99, -57.58 (-0.95%)
NYSE Composite: 20,039.48, -118.10 (-0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: -241.26 (-0.54%)
NASDAQ: -104.04 (-0.53%)
S&P 500: -14.54 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: +40.66 (+0.20%)
Dow Transports: -159.65 (-0.98%)