As the short week drew to a close, the markets exhibited signs of life, but barely. Mixed signals from corporate earnings, economic reports and political tensions kept movement to a minimum. The Dow dropped a scant 2.40 points, while the Nasdaq ended its recent losing streak by adding 8.10.
The upside in tech was despite Motorola's (MOT) dismal earnings - 25 cents per share vs. 47 cents a year ago - as deals on popular cell phones continued to whittle away at margins. Gross income was 17% above last year's figures.
The company announced shortly after its earnings release that it would cut 5% of its workforce - about 3500 jobs - and investors cheered, boosting the stock by half a point.
General Electric (GE), a Dow component, also reported 4th quarter results prior to the market open, and delivered a healthy 64 cents per share, more than double last year's 30 cents. The bad news, which sent GE's shares down nearly a point, was that it was restating earnings from 2001 though the 3rd quarter of 2006, due to interest rate swaps in its commercial paper operations.
With just 8 trading days remaining in January, the Dow is 102 points to the positive for 2007, keeping alive hopes for a winning January and setting the tone for the year. It's amazing how many analysts and brokers are guided by the January effect and will follow their nose dependent solely on how the markets perform in just the first month of the year.
The Nasdaq may be a closer call, though today's close puts it 36 points over last year's finish. Further weakness from the likes of Yahoo or eBay, both of which announce results next week, could spawn more selling in tech.
Google announces on January 31, after the close. Amazon reports on February 1.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Thursday, January 18, 2007
House Puts Kibosh on Big Oil
In the final legislative action of Nancy Pelosi's much-publicized first 100 hours of the 110th Congress, House members voted 264-163 in favor of a sweeping bill that cut tax breaks to oil companies and imposed sanctions that would recoup royalties that the government says it is owed.
In total, the bill could salvage as much as $15 billion from the pockets of the big US-based oil companies, particularly, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips. The bill was debated in a highly partisan session, with Republicans claiming that the measure would cause gas prices to rise and Democrats heralding a new direction in energy policy.
Whether the Senate will follow suit is yet unknown, but the majority vote in the House was not enough to override a near-certain presidential veto.
Earlier in the day, Wall Street continued its assault on all things tech, sending the Nasdaq lower by 36 points, the largest point drop since November 27, 2006. The Nasdaq has lost nearly 60 points over the last three sessions, a trend that has been tied to disappointing projections from companies such as Intel, Cisco and Apple.
Next up on the earnings parade is Motorola, anticipated to announce quarterly earnings of 25 cents per share before markets open. Around the same time, Dow component General Electric will report. 64 cents is the anticipated per share figure.
The Dow was off a marginal 9.22, with the S&P losing 4.25. Light sweet crude for February delivery was pounded lower again, briefly dipping below $50/bbl. on the NYMerc before closing at $50.48.
In total, the bill could salvage as much as $15 billion from the pockets of the big US-based oil companies, particularly, Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips. The bill was debated in a highly partisan session, with Republicans claiming that the measure would cause gas prices to rise and Democrats heralding a new direction in energy policy.
Whether the Senate will follow suit is yet unknown, but the majority vote in the House was not enough to override a near-certain presidential veto.
Earlier in the day, Wall Street continued its assault on all things tech, sending the Nasdaq lower by 36 points, the largest point drop since November 27, 2006. The Nasdaq has lost nearly 60 points over the last three sessions, a trend that has been tied to disappointing projections from companies such as Intel, Cisco and Apple.
Next up on the earnings parade is Motorola, anticipated to announce quarterly earnings of 25 cents per share before markets open. Around the same time, Dow component General Electric will report. 64 cents is the anticipated per share figure.
The Dow was off a marginal 9.22, with the S&P losing 4.25. Light sweet crude for February delivery was pounded lower again, briefly dipping below $50/bbl. on the NYMerc before closing at $50.48.
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Dow Streak Halted Despite Good News
The Dow, higher at midday, lost steam in the afternoon and finished nearly flat, down just over 5 points for the session in moderate to heavy trade.
After three straight record-setting days, the Dow - and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 - simply ran out of gas, especially after the release of the Fed's Beige Book which showed sustained growth in all regions and some indications of wage pressure. That was viewed negatively on Wall Street and the selling ensued in earnest.
Once again, the reverse logic of a surging economy re-igniting inflation fears (and possible resultant interest rate hikes) sent traders into outright selling mode.
On the tech front, Intel's (INTC) continued poor performance (see yesterday's post) led the technology indices lower. The Nasdaq was the worst performer of all the majors, dropping 18.36. Coupled with Intel's disappointing quarter, Cisco Systems (CSCO) was downgraded for the third time in the past two days. Cisco lost 1.06; Intel dropped 1.26.
Earnings and the CPI report will be the major movers tomorrow, as earnings season gets into full swing. Inflation fears are probably overdone right now, as the Fed will likely wait well into any expansion to raise rates. With many economists predicting a slow first half of the year, investors are prone to take a break as January winds into February.
The oil effect was noted today as crude prices firmed. Weather reports are calling for cold days ahead for the Northeast and the price of the slippery stuff grudgingly climbed to close at $52.24.
Just after the close, Apple released earnings that trounced the estimates. The company reported profits of $1.14 per share for their fiscal 1st quarter, well beyond the 78 cents per share analysts predicted. The numbers were a 75% improvement over the 65 cents per share in the year-earlier period.
The company reported quarterly revenue of $7.1 billion, up from $5.75 billion in the same quarter last year. Investors missed the boat completely, as Apple (AAPL) traded down more than $2 prior to the announcement. Play that on your i-Pod. Ouch!
After three straight record-setting days, the Dow - and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 - simply ran out of gas, especially after the release of the Fed's Beige Book which showed sustained growth in all regions and some indications of wage pressure. That was viewed negatively on Wall Street and the selling ensued in earnest.
Once again, the reverse logic of a surging economy re-igniting inflation fears (and possible resultant interest rate hikes) sent traders into outright selling mode.
On the tech front, Intel's (INTC) continued poor performance (see yesterday's post) led the technology indices lower. The Nasdaq was the worst performer of all the majors, dropping 18.36. Coupled with Intel's disappointing quarter, Cisco Systems (CSCO) was downgraded for the third time in the past two days. Cisco lost 1.06; Intel dropped 1.26.
Earnings and the CPI report will be the major movers tomorrow, as earnings season gets into full swing. Inflation fears are probably overdone right now, as the Fed will likely wait well into any expansion to raise rates. With many economists predicting a slow first half of the year, investors are prone to take a break as January winds into February.
The oil effect was noted today as crude prices firmed. Weather reports are calling for cold days ahead for the Northeast and the price of the slippery stuff grudgingly climbed to close at $52.24.
Just after the close, Apple released earnings that trounced the estimates. The company reported profits of $1.14 per share for their fiscal 1st quarter, well beyond the 78 cents per share analysts predicted. The numbers were a 75% improvement over the 65 cents per share in the year-earlier period.
The company reported quarterly revenue of $7.1 billion, up from $5.75 billion in the same quarter last year. Investors missed the boat completely, as Apple (AAPL) traded down more than $2 prior to the announcement. Play that on your i-Pod. Ouch!
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Intel's Earnings Not So Chipper
Revenue slightly lower, profit down sharply; oil drops again
Even though the Dow powered ahead to a new record close (12,582.59), shares of one component are likely to push the index lower when trading resumes on Wednesday.
Intel (INTC), a bellwether for technology, reported disappointing 4th quarter earnings after the close. The company disclosed earnings of $1.5 billion or .26 cents per share as opposed to $2.45 billion and 40 cents for the same period a year ago. Shares sold off nearly a full point in after-hours trading and the damage is not expected to be fully felt until at least the end of the current quarter.
Intel has been locked into a fierce price war with Advance Micro Devices (AMD) for well over a year, though some analysts believe it could be coming to an end as Intel has recently introduced newer chips with which AMD cannot compete.
The chip market has been very competitive, however, and Intel, the world's largest chip-maker, has been dealt much of the pain. The company is in the process of eliminating more than 10,000 jobs in a restructuring effort and is selling off or streamlining other parts of its operations.
As chips fall, consumers gain. Prices for laptops, desktops and other computer products have been driven down thanks to lower and lower costs for faster processing speeds.
In other market-shaking news, oil tumbled once again, with light sweet crude closing at $51.21 a barrel, a 19-month low. Warm weather has diminished the need for home heating oil this winter and reserves are at or near record seasonal levels. Lower prices for oil is generally seen as good news, and this was good enough to keep the rally alive another day.
Even though the Dow powered ahead to a new record close (12,582.59), shares of one component are likely to push the index lower when trading resumes on Wednesday.
Intel (INTC), a bellwether for technology, reported disappointing 4th quarter earnings after the close. The company disclosed earnings of $1.5 billion or .26 cents per share as opposed to $2.45 billion and 40 cents for the same period a year ago. Shares sold off nearly a full point in after-hours trading and the damage is not expected to be fully felt until at least the end of the current quarter.
Intel has been locked into a fierce price war with Advance Micro Devices (AMD) for well over a year, though some analysts believe it could be coming to an end as Intel has recently introduced newer chips with which AMD cannot compete.
The chip market has been very competitive, however, and Intel, the world's largest chip-maker, has been dealt much of the pain. The company is in the process of eliminating more than 10,000 jobs in a restructuring effort and is selling off or streamlining other parts of its operations.
As chips fall, consumers gain. Prices for laptops, desktops and other computer products have been driven down thanks to lower and lower costs for faster processing speeds.
In other market-shaking news, oil tumbled once again, with light sweet crude closing at $51.21 a barrel, a 19-month low. Warm weather has diminished the need for home heating oil this winter and reserves are at or near record seasonal levels. Lower prices for oil is generally seen as good news, and this was good enough to keep the rally alive another day.
Friday, January 12, 2007
Another New High for the Dow
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 44.10 on Friday to reach another all-time closing high today of 15,556.08. The market moved forward on average volume, and all other indices closed in positive territory. What's becoming fairly evident in the percentage gains is that the Dow is beginning to lag the other indices (especially the Nasdaq), as today's top was almost exactly a 33% rise from the previous peak of 11,722.98 on January 14, 2000, 7 short years ago. Fibonacci, anyone?
Of course, some of us remember well what happened just months after that 2000 peak, but the scenarios are widely different. The 2000 peak and subsequent major correction came after an extended period of wild speculative activity with a great deal of new money coming into the market and a gain of well over 100% during the previous five years.
Nevertheless, coming off the March 11, 2003 bottom of 7524.06, today's overall gain checks in at a very healthy 107% in just less than four years.
The market should be close to a top, but there's so much money with a vested interest in this bull run that a correction in the near term seems less likely every day - and that's exactly why it's coming and coming soon.
Just like the sell-off of 2000, it's probably going to appear unannounced, but I'd lay money that it will be tied to a geopolitical event that will occur - or has already been set in motion - over time. The coming correction will not be as severe as others, but careful attention to this quarter's earnings numbers and corporate outlooks for the year may give more of an indication.
I'm only half certain that a correction will occur in the next 3-6 months, considering the momentum of this aging bull. I am convinced that keeping a lid on losses will separate the winners from losers in 2007, however.
Of course, some of us remember well what happened just months after that 2000 peak, but the scenarios are widely different. The 2000 peak and subsequent major correction came after an extended period of wild speculative activity with a great deal of new money coming into the market and a gain of well over 100% during the previous five years.
Nevertheless, coming off the March 11, 2003 bottom of 7524.06, today's overall gain checks in at a very healthy 107% in just less than four years.
The market should be close to a top, but there's so much money with a vested interest in this bull run that a correction in the near term seems less likely every day - and that's exactly why it's coming and coming soon.
Just like the sell-off of 2000, it's probably going to appear unannounced, but I'd lay money that it will be tied to a geopolitical event that will occur - or has already been set in motion - over time. The coming correction will not be as severe as others, but careful attention to this quarter's earnings numbers and corporate outlooks for the year may give more of an indication.
I'm only half certain that a correction will occur in the next 3-6 months, considering the momentum of this aging bull. I am convinced that keeping a lid on losses will separate the winners from losers in 2007, however.
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