Monday, April 23, 2007

Manitoba Calling?

Wedged between the provinces of Ontario and Saskatchewan with a large Northern frontage on beautiful Hudson Bay, Manitoba is a naturalist's paradise. The province is the easternmost of Canada's three prairie provinces, replete with rolling hills, verdant forests and abundant wildlife.

Known as the land of 100,000 lakes, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Manitoba are the three largest lakes. Forests of pine, hemlock and birch cover northern Manitoba with the Churchill, Nelson and Hayes Rivers flowing north into Hudson Bay.

All of these natural features make Manitoba one of Canada's most amenable vacation and getaway destinations. You can sell your Manitoba cottage free or find cottages and vacation homes for sale or rent, from high end, fully-featured second homes to condos, timeshares and mobile homes.

The name Manitoba comes from a Cree name meaning "the place where the spirit (manitou) speaks." At just over 250,000 square miles (a little larger than Texas and Oklahoma combined) a little more than 1 million people call Manitoba home, making it one of the more sparsely yet still habitable areas in the Northern Hemisphere.

The animal populace consists of large game, such as deer, elk, moose, caribou, black bear, and a wide variety of ducks, geese and other fowl. The lakes of Manitoba are world-renouned as some of the best fishing spots in the world.

For retirement or simply getting away from it all you can find the great properties - or sell yours. Maybe this custom built cottage on Lake Winnipeg is right for you.

We Will Drown in Barrels of Oil

The Dow streak was halted after three days of record closes on Monday as oil and gas shock hit the markets. Even the most well-heeled brokers and traders on Wall Street don't like gas at $3.00 a gallon, and for good reason. The high price of petro-energy threatens everything. The US economy - and to a large extent that of much of the civilized world - depends on fuel, not only for cars, but shipping, heating, cooling, industrial production and as a base element in many products.

The price of a barrel of light sweet crude ran up $1.78 to close at $65.89. The average price of a gallon of regular gas in the US, according to the most recent Lundberg Survey reached $2.87, and it's going higher.

Dow 12,919.40 -42.58; NASDAQ 2,523.67 -2.72; S&P 500 1,480.93 -3.42; NYSE Composite 9,660.56 -36.78

The big oil companies will be out with first quarter earnings reports this week. British Petroleum reports tomorrow, ExxonMobil on Thursday, Chevron on Friday. Expect gasps from the public, groans and grumblings from the monied class, and, of course, not a peep of derision from the complaisant wastrels otherwise known as our representatives in the US Congress. Big oil takes from all, but only greases the palms of legislators and others in the governing caste.

Nothing good can come from higher fuel prices unless you have a vested interest in the procurement, production or sale of those commodities. If anything can derail the economy all by itself, it's high energy costs, which have been a noticeable drag for the past two years at least.

If you're smart, you've already sold the SUV. If you're really smart and have some semblance of an environmental conscience, you've taken to
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walking or riding a bike - or motorized scooter - for short trips under one mile. Being that America has become the land of the fat, stupid and lazy, there aren't that many more bikes or scooters out there. We're doomed to drown either in debt, the cost of gas or from the coastal high tides of Global Warming.

It's all about the oil, the supposedly dwindling resource, even though almost nobody ever mentions the ongoing exploration, drilling and pipelining in North African nations by more than 70 companies. The Hubbard's Peak supply-demand scenario so frequently cited by the industry is a sham, an ersatz delusion perpetrated by the wealthy on the average and the poor. The more hand-wringing over global warming, the greater the demand for alternative fuels, the higher the price is likely to go. It's the unstoppable force of wealth, greed and power run amok.

To illustrate the illusory aspect of the oil scarcity argument, consider, on a day that oil rose nearly 3%, gold and silver - two elements which actually are scarce, barely budged. Silver rose 10 cents while gold lost $1.60 in value. Oil isn't scarce. The world is swimming in it and the oil barons are literally laughing all the way to the bank in armored limousines.

Volume on the exchanges today was close to average, with losers holding sway over winners by a slight margin of 5-4. New highs continue to flourish, with 474 of them as opposed to just 72 stocks making new lows. That imbalance is, and has been at the high range of historical charts.

If oil continues to rise in price, expect the market to react negatively, regardless of the quality of earnings being reported. Everyone and their brothers know that super high gas and oil prices are unsustainable in the long run and threaten to put an abrupt end to what has been a healthy run-up.

Saturday, April 21, 2007

Dow Erupts to New Record; NASDAQ at 6-Year High

Up nearly 150 points within the first ten minutes of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eclipsed yesterday's record by a staggering sum, closing within hailing distance of the 13,000 mark at 12,961.98, up 153.35 points at day's end.

Dow 12,961.98 +153.35; NASDAQ 2,526.39 +21.04; S&P 500 1,484.35 +13.62; NYSE Composite 9,697.34 +95.65

Trade was heavily unbalanced to the buy side. Advancing issues led decliners by nearly a 3-1 margin while new highs popped to 507 against merely 65 new lows.

Possible catalysts include Google's stellar earnings report, in which the search and online ad company blew away analyst estimates along with year-ago figures. It's no surprise that the nation's leading technology company would lead to a significant breakout in all sectors, though there have been solid earnings all around.

Friday morning could have been simply an expression of extreme amounts of money not willing to sit idle any longer. Volume was easily the heaviest of the week with heavy money entering right at the open.

The big moves in equities came despite a lack of cooperation from commodities. Oil continues to be a thorny issue, rising $1.55 to close at $63.38. Gold was up $7.50 to $695.80, and silver gained 22 cents to end at $13.96 per ounce.

Perhaps the stock gains and commodity motion were nothing more than adjustment to the value of the US currency, which continues to slide against most other world monies. The US$/Euro ratio is close to $1.36 with no pullback in sight under current policies. The Fed's reluctance to tighten the credit tap is making the currency worth less, so stocks continually have to gain just to keep pace. In the long run, it's a no win situation which needs to be rectified some time soon.

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Dow Higher 6th Straight Session; Google Beats Street

The Dow stocks added nearly 5 points on top of yesterday's record close to set another all-time high, but the rest of the US indices moved in the opposite direction, once again indicating the thin nature of the current rally.

After the close, internet behemoth Google reported 1st quarter profit gains of 69% over the same period a year ago. The company posted net income of $3.18 a share, up from $1.95 a share in 2006, on sales of $2.53 billion, a cool billion more than in the first quarter last year.

Shares of Google were down 4.36 during the day, but after the announcement, shares soared more than 12 points in after-hours trading.

Dow 12,808.63 -4.79; NASDAQ 2,505.35 -5.15; S&P 500 1,470.73 -1.77; NYSE Composite 9,601.69 -33.18

The Dow stocks actually showed a slight bias to the buy side, with 17 up, 12 down and 1 (Disney) unchanged. All of the moves were fractional. Boeing was the biggest loser, -0.89, followed closely by Exxon-Mobil -0.74. Honeywell was the winner on the day, gaining 0.85.

As has been the case for the past two days, declining issues outnumbered advancers, with the margin widening today to a nearly 2-1 ratio. New highs continue to come down as well, at 287 today, versus a mere 84 new lows.

The conduct of the market is somewhat suspect, especially considering that volume was the best of the week. There just doesn't seem to be much enthusiasm in the trading even as oil took a large hit today, down 1.30 to close at $61.83 per barrel.

Gold and silver both fell, again tantalizingly close to break out levels. Gold lost $5.00 to 688.30, while silver dropped 24 cents to $13.74. The metals have been stuck in a range for well over a year after hitting significant tops in 2006. Only the aspect of serious inflation - which the financial press refuses to report - seems to be enough of a catalyst to move them higher.

As for stocks, the Dow may be serving as a last vestige of worn-out money. Investors seem to have weighed the risks and are neither sold on the robustness of the world economy nor the chance that the Fed will remain on hold much longer.

The sub-prime mortgage blow-up and declining house values nationwide are also a cause for concern in the bigger picture. But the canary in the mine shaft is still breathing, so stocks continue - without much direction - drift aimlessly. The Dow's recent comeback is probably more reaction than rally, as investors re-upped when shares were cheaper a few weeks ago.

Without a significant earnings surprise - positive or negative - this market has all the features of a ship adrift on calm seas. As any good sailor knows, however, optimal conditions don't last forever and storms may arrive without much warning. Caveat Emptor.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Black Eye for Big Blue But Dow Gets New High

Despite disappointment from Dow component IBM (down more than 2 points) on merely meeting analysts' first quarter estimates, the 30 blue chips of the Dow clawed their way to a new all-time high of 12,803.84. The finish was just seven points above the previous high, but it still counts. Hallelujah!

The big winner of the day was Caterpillar (CAT) up more than 2 points on the day and nearly 15% on the year. Along with the heavy equipment manufacturer, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) also added a couple of points (over 4%) to help move the entire average higher.

Without the moves from those two issues, the Dow would never had made it. 16 of the 30 component stocks were down, reflecting a somewhat bearish sentiment even on such a pin-striped, back-slapping kind of day.

The other indices we're exactly on the same page as the Dow, with the S&P and Composite showing marginal gains and the NASDAQ posting a second straight losing session.

Dow 12,803.84 +30.80; NASDAQ 2,510.50 -6.45; S&P 500 1,472.50 +1.02; NYSE Composite 9,634.87 +3.18

Volume was slightly beyond moderate, an indication of nothing more than increased interest in company earnings. Speaking of such, internet pioneer Yahoo got taken out and shot, losing 3.78 (-12%) after missing 1st quarter projections. Yahoo only made 10 cents per share as opposed to 11 in the same period of 2006.

Yahoo's miss was yet another setback in a long string of mistakes and miscues, most of them since startup Google stole most of the search business away. Yahoo has been playing catch-up and has been criticized for being complacent in the marketplace while other competitors ramped up new, innovative products and services.

Internals were a mixed bag, but still evidencing a bearish bias. Decliners beat out advancing issues by a 4-3 margin, and there were fewer new highs for the 2nd straight day, 353, but only 61 issues registered new lows.

Helping the equities at least stay in place, oil barely budged, gaining just 3 cents. Gold and silver were mixed, but both nearly flat.

More earnings tomorrow, and the market is nervous.