Why Stocks, and Why Now?

One often wonders what people are thinking when they make investments such as buying stocks. Simply put, when a trader buys shares of stocks, they are getting in on a piece of a company, in effect, becoming an owner of a sliver of that company, ostensibly without any of the day-to-day headaches that come with actually operating it.

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Nowadays, most people, including supposedly really, really smart people managing hundreds of millions - or even billions - of dollars, think that what they are buying will actually increase in value over time.

In theory, it's not a bad idea. In reality, it's often horrible.

What investors do is finance companies' operations. Usually, money invested in publicly-traded firms does nothing but change hands in the marketplace. For every buyer, there's a seller, and sellers have vastly different rationales than buyers.

Thursday's trading can be taken as an example of more people believing that their purchases will be worth more soon. Stocks were up.

Why? More buyers than sellers, for the most part, but where their money went is an important feature. Largely, money went into financial firms today, on the premise that these companies have gone through a rough period, but have put their problems behind them and those shares should continue to appreciate due to lessons learned.

Wow! If people are buying that whopper, I've got bridges and airplanes to sell you.

The financial firms have committed the most egregious kinds of money mismanagement imaginable over the past few years and are paying the price. Are people so gullible to believe that these very same people will handle other people's money better than they have in the past?

You bet they are.

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Fools. Giving these bankers, brokers and financiers more money is like giving a crack addict another snort, or an alcoholic a bottle of whiskey. One suspects that the money flowing into financials is from other financials - people who share the same addiction and can't - or won't - handle their own money themselves. It's a recipe for disaster and we've bought right into it.

Dow 11,615.93 +82.97; NASDAQ 2,453.67 +25.05; S&P 500 1,292.93 +7.10; NYSE Composite 8,385.97 +10.58

Well, maybe they're right. But, judging solely by the overall volume - the lowest in months - they seem to be out on an island in their perceptions. Foreclosures are up, as is unemployment, and inflation. Meanwhile, home prices are down and going lower. Wages continue to contract. The basic measure of wealth for the average American is going lower by the day. Economic conditions are generally horrible. But the banks... they'll make money. Sure.

Advancing issues on Thursday overwhelmed decliners, 3888-2356. New lows, however, continued to dominate new highs, 172-110.

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Oil lost 96 cents, to $115.03. Gold gave back all of yesterday's gains and then some, losing $17.00, to $814.50. Silver also traded lower, dropping 62 cents, to $14.36.

As much as I'd like to believe that the economic problems caused by, and now being handled by, Wall St. financial firms are abating, the massive day-to-day drops in gold and silver are telling me a decidedly different story. We've turned a corner, for sure, but the street we're headed down doesn't look so friendly.

And there's no going back...

NYSE Volume 1,008,494,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,867,483,000

Financials Lead Stocks Lower Again

There simply is no light at the end of the tunnel through which financial companies have been navigating.

Credit conditions have deteriorated to a point at which the entire global financial system is in a seizure while financial firms - banks, brokerages, combined entities - continue to reveal just how poorly managed their monies have been.

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They are now in desperate race to shed toxic assets as they begin to savage each other with downgrades amid lawsuits brought by states, municipalities, funds and investors of all stripes which invested in subprime, alt-a or other non-creditworthy tranches of securitized obligations.

It is an absolute mess, with no end and no solution other than to dispose of assets at fire sale prices and hope for the best outcome, which, in reality, is a severe global recession. Billions and billions of dollars worth of assets are being sold for pennies on the dollar as a result of loose lending standards, lax oversight and naked greed.

Dow 11,532.96 -109.51; NASDAQ 2,428.62 -1.99; S&P 500 1,285.83 -3.76; NYSE Composite 8,375.39 -23.32

Once the financial firms are finally tossed to the curb, the next phase will be an all-encompasing rout of stocks, especially those that are mismanaged, in need of capital or in any business outside of bare necessities. Most stocks will head lower over the next six to eight months. Those which avoid outright liquidation will be shells of their former selves.

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On the day, declining issues fared slightly better than advancers, beating them by a margin of 3253-2999. More stocks hit new lows than new highs, 199-117. Investors are seeking safe havens for their money, though the options in equities are highly risky. Every day seems to bring new horrors to a variety of companies suffering through tough economic conditions.

Oil stopped its slide for a day, gaining $2.86, to $115.99, still well below levels of just a month ago. The metals also gained, with gold higher by $16.90, to $831.50, and silver up 36 cents to $14.98.

The best way to make money in this environment is not to try to pick winners, but losers, and sell them as short as possible until November. Volume has been anemic this week, exemplifying the general lack of enthusiasm for equities in general.

NYSE Volume 1,210,340,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,029,940,000

Commodity Dive Continues; Stocks Join the Party

The price-slashing in commodities continued unabated on Tuesday, but with an added twist. Stocks spent the entire session losing value as well.

What contributed to the overall gloom on Wall Street were a number of items from financial firms that reminded investors that the US economy is far from what would be considered stable.

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Morgan Stanley (MS) had its credit rating cut by Moody's, JP Morgan Chase reported another $1.5 billion in writedowns just in July, Wachovia (WB) and UBS (UBS) reported quarterly losses, and even the venerable Goldman Sachs (GSC) was downgraded by Oppenheimer.

Overall, it was a pretty ugly day to be a banker, broker, trader, investor or financier. Most skid row bums had better days than the suits on Wall Street. At least they didn't lose a bundle of money.

Dow 11,642.47 -139.88; NASDAQ 2,430.61 -9.34; S&P 500 1,289.59 -15.72; NYSE Composite 8,398.71 -94.23

Declining issues took back the advantage over advancers, 3911-2341. New lows also regained their edge over new highs after a one-day respite from that long term drubbing, 200-117.

As mentioned, crude oil fell again, down $1.53, to $113.13. Gold gave back $13.70 in value, dropping to an 8-month low of $814.60. Silver lost just 14 cents, closing at $14.49 the ounce.

This kind of continuing price depression does not bode well for companies or individuals. While price relief is welcome in energy-related issues and staples like food and rent, they are being caused by a severe cutback in demand. People and companies are strapped for cash, and banks are loathe to lend to anyone or any company with less than a pristine credit history.

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As I've been attempting to drive home lately, the point is not to contain inflation, but to slow down price depression. It's simple supply and demand economics in the flesh: too many goods are now chasing too few dollars. Inventories are rising and the solution is to lower prices to an acceptable level.

The real kicker is that consumers, which comprise 70 to 75% of GDP, are distressed over high fuel and food prices, actively seeking lower cost alternatives and finding them. It's the magic of the marketplace at work. If prices become overinflated without justice, the market adjusts and the pricing mechanism is tamped down.

What's fueled the spiral to the bottom thus far has been overpricing, especially in oil, gasoline and other essential commodities. Add in the credit malaise and massive gold and silver positions get unwound as companies, governments and institutions need to raise cash.

The winner in all of this is a strengthening of the US dollar and increased exports, reflected in today's Trade Balance figure for June, which came in at -$56.8 billion. Analysts were expecting something along the lines of -$61 billion, so the lower imbalance came as a pleasant surprise.

On the other side of the coin, it meant that US consumers were spending less on imported goods, which is probably not a very welcome signal to the rest of the world. Either that, or the rest of the world is catching the disease we've already got and realizing that the US isn't so bad off after all.

Economics can get pretty confusing, and these days are confounding even to people who are supposed to know their way around all these numbers and conflicting trends. Eventually, some clarity will emerge, but it's probably not going to be very encouraging.

NYSE Volume 1,126,747,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,086,532,000

Stocks Gain on Oil Slowdown, but Metals Drop is Troubling

The price of crude is just about the only element pushing the stock market at this juncture. Having fallen more than $30 per barrel since early July, oil, the energy fuel that drives the world economy, is better when it is cheaper, both for businesses and consumers.

So, banks may fail and consumer spending may sink into the deep blue, but every time crude drops a buck on the futures market, everyone gets a spate of relief and the feeling that all is well.

Dow 11,782.35 +48.03; NASDAQ 2,439.95 +25.85; S&P 500 1,305.31 +9.00; NYSE Composite 8,492.94 +32.62

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As I've been reporting of late, this is not necessarily good news, as other commodities are falling in price along with Texas tea, notably, gold and silver. The precious metals, as they are known, have been in total liquidation mode, as positions are being unwound with head-spinning rapidity.

Monday was no exception. Oil fell 75 cents to $114.45, but gold was off by a huge $36.50, to $828.30, while silver lost an impressive 71 cents, dropping to $14.62. Both gold and silver crashed through support levels established earlier this year.

Note: closing prices are based on NY spot prices at 2:30 pm Eastern time. As of this writing, at 9:00 pm Eastern, Gold has fallen even further, down to $803 in Sydney and Hong Kong.

Crashing prices in any market is not a good sign for economies in general terms. Ideally, prices should exhibit some degree of stability - it is what all economists strive to achieve. When the metals prices erode as quickly as they have been, it is a sign of serious liquidity problems on a global basis. In a market absent of credit - as our global economy has become - often precious metal caches are liquidated in order to raise cash.

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The sharp recent declines in gold and silver can only be seen in the most distressing light. We are on the verge of a global economic meltdown as the commodity bubble is now bursting.

To illustrate, gold soared past the $700 mark in September of 2007. Within 6 months, it had hit $1000. On July 15, after a decline down to around $850, gold sparked back to $980 on July 15. Noting tomorrow's early price, in less than a month, gold has lost nearly $150, or 15% of its value.

For stocks, it was a bullish session. Advancing issues outperformed decliners, 4114-2158. At last, new highs exceeded new lows, 204-191.

Where the unwinding in the commodity markets is going to land stocks is, for now, unknown. Presently, it's seen as a good sign - easing of prices. However, if allowed to continue unabated, these are the same conditions that led to Japan's lost decade of the 1990s, and, of course, the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s.

NYSE Volume 1,263,452,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,302,385,000

And Away We Go...

So used to say the "Great One", Jackie Gleason, at the start of his weekly variety show in the heyday of television. It's almost as though the ghost of Gleason has brought back the June Taylor dancers and the kaleidoscope dance routines to Wall Street, such is the gaiety at the brokerages these days.

With the wild gyrations - up one day, down the next, and so on - the brokers are booking commissions like mad. Even though volume has been a little off, there are still plenty of players, so the guys who get paid by the trade - even the electronic ones - have got to be rolling in some pretty deep grass right now.

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Volatility being one of the things serious old school investors seek to avoid, a lot of stodgy fund money is sitting around doing nothing while the whiz kids in the startups and hedge funds are wheeling and dealing like mad. The velocity of trading is fueling much of the high and low swings these days, as much as the decline in oil, the mortgage mess and general economic uncertainty.

So, the major indices went ballistic on Friday, even though Fannie Mae came through with a monstrous loss ($2.3 billion), productivity of US workers was not what was expected in the second quarter, coming in at an anemic 2.2%.

The outsize gains were tied largely to improvement of the US dollar against major currencies and an associated drop in the price of oil.

Dow 11,734.32 +302.89; NASDAQ 2,414.10 +58.37; S&P 500 1,296.31 +30.25; NYSE Composite 8,460.32 +121.92

Advancing issues far outweighed decliners, 4574-1711. New lows, however, continued their year-long domination of new highs, 226-131.

In commodity trading, crude oil took another major tumble, losing $4.82, to close at $115.20, a price almost everyone can appreciate. The metals continued to freefall, with gold losing another $13.10, to $864.80. Silver lost a massive 93 cents, dropping to $15.33 the ounce.

While all eyes are fixated on the price of oil, the real story may still be in the metals. Gold's close today is just about $12 ahead of the early May lows, and could be putting in a double bottom, but my hunch is that speculators and institutions in need of cash are tossing in their chips and taking whatever profits are available - and they're probably sizable, with gold nearly quadrupling since 2002.

Silver, meanwhile, has been harder hit, dropping to a point just pennies above where it began the year. The metals are presaging a coming economic slump and general price malaise which will probably decimate retailers in December.

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On the other hand, with politics so prominent in everything these days, could we not have predicted that oil and gas prices would fall into a more palatable range prior to the election? Probably. Big oil is tied to Republican candidates, and they're in trouble because of the high prices, so oil is gratuitously rolling back a bit, at least until November 4.

As for gas, the general rule of thumb is that gas prices drop about 2 1/2 cents for every $1 fall in the price of crude. Well, when oil hit $147, gas jumped to $4.14. Today, oil is at $115, but gas is still $3.85 according to the Daily Fuel Gauge Report. Our mathematical formula tells us, however, that the price of a gallon of petrol should be down 80 cents, not a mere 29. The national average should be right down around $3.24. It's about 60 cents too high. What's up with that?

NYSE Volume 1,245,662,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,225,998,000