Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Intel Earnings Report Lifts Stocks

After the bell on Tuesday, chipmaker Intel reported second quarter earnings results far ahead of Wall Street expectations. That was enough to give investors confidence that the economy was continuing to mend - albeit slowly - and that stocks - especially tech companies with strong balance sheets - would weather the storm and produce solid results.

As a result, all the major indices gapped up at the open and continued to tack on impressive gains for the entire session.

There have been conflicting data and no consensus on the economy or the stock market of late, but as earnings roll out, opinions are beginning to shift to more positive tones, and nothing will light up a rally like a strong report from a solid company, such as Intel.

Intel reported a second-quarter loss of 7 cents a share, compared with a profit of $1.6 billion, or 28 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. The loss was attributable to a hefty fine imposed by the European Union. Excluding the charge, Intel posted profits of 18 cents a share, better than analyst's expectations for 8 cents per share.

Dow 8,616.21, +256.72 (3.07%)
NASDAQ 1,862.90, +63.17 (3.51%)
S&P 500 932.68, +26.84 (2.96%)
NYSE Composite 5,993.16, +187.58 (3.23%)


Gainers outnumbered losers by a wide margin, 5583-936. New highs took back the advantage over new lows, 87-70, and, in what was probably the most encouraging sign for market participants, volume was significantly higher than it had been over the past month, a sign that more money was in the market for gains on the day. Whether stocks can build on the momentum of the first three days of the week will be telling. The Dow has rung up gains in each of the three session, while the NASDAQ is on a four-day winning streak.

NYSE Volume 1,374,278,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,577,142,000


Taking their lead from the stock market, commodity traders pushed prices higher in a spasm of buying. Oil gained $2.02, to $61.54; gold picked up $16.60, to close at $939.40, while silver added 35 cents, to $13.21.

On the agenda for tomorrow, second quarter earnings report from JP Morgan, one of the banks which took a roller-coaster ride, price-wise, over the past 12 months. The company is expected to have turned a profit in the current quarter, and earnings are expected in the area of 4 cents per share, which is a number significantly lower than just a month ago, when analysts were looking for 37 cents a share. Depending on the size of the rally and Morgan's results, the snake oil could be flowing come tomorrow. Buyers of this current snort-term rally may get less than what they've bargained for.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

It Was Another Sucker Rally

Answering the question posed on Monday, the suckers are about to be reeled in.

After Meredith Whitney singlehandedly boosted the Dow by 185 points - the best performance in 6 weeks - with her call for an ever-higher, ever-growing Goldman Sachs, Tuesday's follow-through was nothing more than a gaping, loud yawn which could be heard booming down the canyons of Wall Street all the way to the beaches at Del Mar.

Action was spotty and choppy as the indices see-sawed across the break-even line. Eventually, some brave bulls hung in until the final bell, but the sentiment was far from universal. In fact, Goldman Sachs, which reported better-than-expected earnings for the second quarter, and was up 7 points Monday, finished the day up a very modest 22 cents.

Dow 8,359.49, +27.81 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,799.73, +6.52 (0.36%)
S&P 500 905.84, +4.79 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite 5,805.58, +44.21 (0.77%)


Although advances were broad-based with winners getting past losers, 4054-2274, new lows retained their edge over new highs, 59-56, and volume was pretty much confined to the boys at Goldman and JP Morgan plus a few hedge funds in New Canaan, CT. Everyone else, it seems, is where they should be: on vacation.

NYSE Volume 978,933,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,890,954,000


On a happier note, Bernie Madoff began serving his 150-year prison sentence at the Butner Federal Correctional Complex, in Durham, North Carolina, today. Bernie will be in good company. The prison also houses John Rigas, the Aldephia Communications scoundrel among other tax cheats, forgers and scammers. I case you want to check on Bernie's well-being, he can be found under prison number 61727-054, at the federal prison system's web site.

Commodity traders apparently aren't sold on either recovery or recession, as prices stalled out on Tuesday. Oil fell 17 cents, to $59.52, gold gained 30 cents, to $922.80, while silver tacked on 7 cents, to $12.86. Most other commodities were traded within small ranges.

The Bureau of Labor statistics released the Producer Price Index for June, showing a 1.8% seasonally-adjusted gain over May, which is a little bit misleading since the finished goods prices declined 4.6% over the past year. While the 1.6% gain in one month may be alarming to some, most of the veterans on Wall Street realize we're in a bit of deflation, so the number didn't engender more "inflation" talk.

After the close, Yum Brands (YUM) and Intel (INTC) both issued 2nd quarter results that beat the street. The rally could have been merely taking a breather, though investors may also be getting pickier with earnings increases slim.

Monday, July 13, 2009

Financials Fun or Another Sucker Rally?

With 2nd quarter earnings about to begin rolling out tomorrow, Monday's movement in the markets was something to ponder befor possibly jumping into the breach. Leading the way were financials, the very same banks that caused huge financial failures less than a year ago.

Are the banks fully rejuvenated? Can they be trusted as guardians of important capital - for mortgages, college, retirement, etc. - or have investors forgotten so soon how cavalier these same bankers were with other people's money. Sadly, I am of the camp that says they cannot be trusted. Every time financial stocks lead rallies, I see the same fraudulent faces, the same lying CEOs, none of whom have been rightfully indicted, prosecuted and jailed for their various crimes: collusion, delusion, evasion and deceit.

After falling for four straight weeks, maybe the market was prime for gains, but one must bear in mind where we are in the greater cycle. Stocks are just coming off highs, and, with the economy still struggling, one has to question the wisdom of jumping in at this particular juncture. Maybe for short term profits, this is the right move, but longer term, stocks could easily become cheaper in months ahead. If this is a short term timing rally and an in-and-out play, which is predominantly what our markets have become, this may be worthwhile, but waiting until the first few days' worth of earnings results come to the fore seems to be a more prudent position.

In any case, stocks were brought higher by the banks, which lifted every sector by at least 1%.

Dow 8,331.68, +185.16 (2.27%)
NASDAQ 1,793.21, +37.18 (2.12%)
S&P 500 901.05, +21.92 (2.49%)
NYSE Composite 5,761.37, +133.85 (2.38%)


The movement was broad based, with advancing issues beating out decliners, 4980-1400. New lows, however, maintained their edge over new highs, 79-40. Volume was nothing about which to get excited, another indication that not all hands are on board with this move. Weak volume has been an consistent feature marking the end of the rally and the beginning of the correction four weeks ago.

NYSE Volume 1,189,460,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,921,335,000


Commodities were all over the map. Those in the energy-related sector followed oil's downward draft of 20 cents, closing at $59.69. The metals were all up, with gold higher by $10.00, to $922.50, and silver up 14 cents, to $12.79. Livestock and foodstuffs finished in mixed fashion.

Banks will be in focus the rest of this week as a number of big names announce earnings. Goldman Sachs, a particularly important bellwether, reports tomorrow.

Friday, July 10, 2009

China Exports, Fed Investigation Fuel US Stock Sell-Off

News from the People's Republic of China (the most Westernized Communist nation ever) that imports rose 13.2% while exports fell 21.4% in June underscored the sheer depth of worldwide trade contraction (a better word than depression, but along the same meaning). In the prior month, China's trade balance fell to a paltry $8.25 billion, a far cry from the enormous trade surplus during the mid-2000s.

Since the US economy has contracted at an alarming rate over the past year, China has suffered the consequences of being too-highly dependent upon one major trading partner. For its part, the Chinese will likely devote heavy sums of its manpower and money to infrastructure development and strengthening the domestic economy over the next two to three years, areas ripe for growth.

Compared to the US, China can outspend America for years on building new bridges, buildings, rail and highways, and not bat an economic eyelash, most of its development financed by domestic banks. To the contrary, the US has to borrow its way back to "prosperity" and doesn't have nearly the real need for new infrastructure the Chinese do, though repairing much of the existing stock is a tall order.

In the end, somewhere around 2013, China will rival the United States as the dominant economic power in the world, and they'll have done so without firing a shot - although waging a military war with the Chinese is surely a last-gasp scenario in secret DC boardrooms.

There's little doubt that China is the ascendant power of the 21st century, just as America was the powerhouse in the century prior. Now that we have shipped our manufacturing over to mainland China, there's no chance of retaining our dominant position. It will not happen overnight, or suddenly, but slowly and less painfully for US interests, but betting on America's future is a fool's gambit. Our economy is shrinking while our debt enlarges. It is a recipe for catastrophe and the winner will be China.

Also of note on the final day of the week is the call by 3 Democrat and 14 Republican House members for the Obama administration to investigate the Federal Reserve over its role in the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch merger. While the House members' move sounds interesting and potentially a blockbuster, it's more than likely nothing more than bluster and grandstanding. The Administration is not going to peer too deeply or with any grand degree of rigor into the activities of its own operatives. While there's little doubt Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke pressured BofA to do the deal and save Merrill from bankruptcy - which would have triggered more financial fallout and stock losses - nobody in the world is going to get anyone from Treasury or the Fed to 'fess up to that dirty deed.

The news did send some shockwaves across the market, however, as stocks continued to reel for a fourth straight week. On the Dow, the 8146 finish was the lowest since April 28 and a loss of 134 points on the week. All of the major indices except the NASDAQ opened on the negative side of the ledger and stayed there throughout the session. While NASDAQ finally finished in the green, damage was limited by a late-day short-covering rally on extremely low volume.

Nine of 12 sectors were lower, with Transportation, Consumer Cyclicals and Technology the only winners.

Dow 8,146.52, -36.65 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,756.03, +3.48 (0.20%)
S&P 500 879.13, -3.55 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 5,627.52, -39.85 (0.70%)


Declining issues outweighed gainers, 3227-3021, but new lows continued to dominate new highs, 99-23, on the day. Volume again was anemic, appearing to be the lowest single-day number of shares traded since the first trading day of the year, January 2.

NYSE Volume 922,061,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,673,932,000


Crude oil for August delivery closed down 52 cents, passing the psychological $60 mark, at $59.89. Gold dipped $3.70, to $912.50, with silver down 29 cents to $12.65. If one is seeking a gauge for deflation, there's likely no better place to look than to commodities, a leading indicator. They have taken some time to fully commit, but there are indications aplenty that raw material prices have fallen and are staying down. Lack of demand will continue to erode raw material prices now that China has eased up on some of its buying. If there was a time to sell commodities - especially metals and energy - it was over the last two weeks. The stampede for the exits may only be beginning.

Looking ahead to next week, which will be chock-full of earnings reports, the banking sector may predominate, as Goldman Sachs (GS), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Bank of America (BAC) will all issue 2nd quarter results.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Why Debate? The Economy Stinks, So Do Stocks

It's becoming somewhat amusing to listen and read the various pundits, analysts and stock jockeys who are still buying the "green shoots" recovery mantra propagated so often by the feds and the media this past Spring. Amusing, and maybe a little sad, especially since the Obama administration has quietly wandered away from that framework, having more recently adopted the "going to get worse before it gets better" approach of tamping down expectations, or, a Joe Biden has opined, "we underestimated the recession."

There's hardly any debate worth considering except how best to get out of the way of falling stocks once the carnage of second quarter earnings results commences. Yesterday, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season by announcing a loss, but one that was not as bad as analysts had expected. Now, while that may have worked with first quarter results, the logic is wearing thin. After Alcoa was pumped in after-hour trading on Wednesday, and opened higher Thursday, it ended the session down 23 cents.

Talk about separating a pigeon from his money! Anyone who bought in the brief euphoria period overnight and into the first hour of trading is now sitting on a pile of losses which will likely only deteriorate over the coming days and weeks.

The rally from March through June has topped out. In case those with a bullish bias haven't noticed, it's July, and time for stocks - and traders - to take a breather. Economic reports of late have been either benign or sorry, indicating that recovery, once thought to be just around the corner, has taken a detour into a dark alley and can't be located.

Topping off everything else are the state-by-state tales of woe and despair. Most of the comptrollers or treasurers who put together budgets were hoodwinked into thinking that tax receipts would somehow miraculously keep pace with those of the past three years. They were also bailed out largely by the federal government (taxpayers borrowing) and failed to make the most modest of adjustments in spending. California is passing out IOUs, New York will be next, likely followed by Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. State budgets are so far outside the realm of reality one wonders how we evey survived so long.

While the economy erodes daily, the news media ponders the feds' next move, pointing toward another stimulus of some kind, instead of doing what has been needed all along, cutting spending, freezing hiring and slashing salaries. The one segment of the population that hasn't suffered layoffs is government, and while they remain insulated, the correct approach should be to cut workdays or pay rates. States, municipalities and the federal government would be doing themselves a favor by slicing salaries by 10-15% all around and renegotiating health care contracts. Such a move would position the politicians as egalitarian, and, despite the howls and yelps from the minions of government workers, those could be reminded that they still have jobs and should be happy for that.

It sounds like a great plan, but it will never happen. We're moving along the path of cradle-to-grave socialism, and unless there's a quick and radical shift in thinking in government circles, they'll simply print more worthless paper before taking real action on spending.

Dow 8,183.17, +4.76 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 1,752.55, +5.38 (0.31%)
S&P 500 882.68, +3.12 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 5,667.37, +42.80 (0.76%)


Today's minute gains underscores the futility of trading in such an environment. There simply aren't many stocks that look good over any horizon, especially, short-to-medium term. On the day, advancing issues managed to beat out decliners, 3642-2698. New lows are beginning to persistently beat back new highs; today, they won again, 81-25. Volume, however, was the real story. There just wasn't much action to be had.

NYSE Volume 1,006,111,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,892,060,000


Commodities muddled through a session without much in the way of direction. Oil gained 11 cents, to $60.25. Gold reversed its recent downtrend, adding $6.90, to close at $916.20. Silver was up as well, picking up 8 cents, to $12.94.

All tolled, the day was unspectacular and probably more worrisome than it appeared. Investors - those still left standing and/or holding - seem to be on edge, awaiting the next round of dismal news. That could come any day, but probably not until next week, when a slew of big names will be reporting earnings and losses.