Monday, May 17, 2010

Dow Drops 180, Finishes with Gain: Complete Scam

Let's not mince words any more. The stock market is a complete scam, engineered to maximize profits for the banks, brokerages and well-heeled investors. Period.

Individual investors have no place in this magnificently-rigged charade. Second, third and fourth quarter comparisons will be impossible for most traded companies to meet. Expect stocks to fall at least 40 percent over the next 12 months.

Dow 10,625.83, +5.67 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,354.23, +7.38 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,136.94, +1.26 (0.11%)
NYSE Composite 7,063.83, -13.81 (0.20%)


Internal numbers tell the entire story of today's panicked selling and short-cover rebound into the close. Declining issues overwhelmed advancing ones, 3705-2873. New highs and new lows were almost on equal footing, with the highs taking a slim edge, 113-108. The new highs to new lows indicator is screaming for direction, and the most likely aim is down. If this indicator flips - which it almost surely will, considering the absurd gains from 2009 - a complete reversal will be unstoppable. Volume was moderate, though with options expiring this week, any movement to the upside in terms of trading volume will carry the distinct odor of burned investors.

NYSE Volume 6,799,444,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,416,696,250.00


Even the mainstream is calling stocks risky and overpriced, as in this Fortune/CNN Money article.

Stocks are almost certain to decline, along with almost all commodity prices, because almost everything is overvalued. Price discovery is the very first and most important aspect of market discipline. For the past 20 years at least, the equity markets have displayed less-than-rigorous pricing models, which has led to one bubble after another, to the point at which not only the global economy is at risk, but the nature of currency is being challenged. Major, catastrophic consequences, bourn out of years of market manipulation, deceit, sloppiness and fraud cannot be discounted in perpetuity. Eventually, some semblance of honest price discovery and balanced economic principles must come to bear upon all markets. For equity markets, that time is overdue.

Commodity prices continue to foretell the fate of nations. Crude oil prices continued to decline on the day, reaching a five-month low by losing another $1.53 per barrel, to $70.08. Oil's decline is symptomatic of the overall deflationary environment which has persisted since mid-2007 and has not abated, despite the massive printing of money by the world's central bankers. Gold could barely muster a bid, rising only 30 cents, to $1,227.70, itself under pressure as a traded commodity, but with the slight argument that it is a store of wealth. Silver also fell victim to both market maneuvering and selling pressure, slipping 37 cents, to $18.84 per ounce.

In an economic downturn as enormous as the one currently underway, there is no safe haven, though the metals may prove more steadfast than almost all other asset classes. Their status as commodities, and their prices being largely unavailable to the average man and woman, make them vulnerable to huge price swings, as has been the case over the past three to five years.

The breaking point is nearly upon the world's economies. Either the Euro's demise or an unanticipated collapse of oil and distillate demand (caused primarily by the swirling deflationary pressures) may prove to be too much for markets to handle.

Nobody who follows economics or markets should be surprised if a massive collapse is equities occurs at any time during the next six to twelve months. Such an event should not be viewed as a possibility, but rather a near-certainty.

Friday, May 14, 2010

So, I Was Right About the Fraud, Right?

OK, I hae stated my case all week. The case of the skeptic, of the cynic, of the personwho believes those who run big firms and those who execute trades for those big firms are among the most dishonest, corrupt, incorrigible people to ever set foot upon the planet, and it is they who are responsible (in cahoots with certain government agents) for the "flash crash" of last Thursday and much of the subsequent market action afterwards.

You can look back over the past six days of posts and my story doesn't vary. Insidious insiders caused the meltdown and bounce last Thursday, May 6, 2010, walked stocks further down on Friday, May 7, and knew full well that the EU would not only bail out Greece, but that they would approve a nearly $1 Trillion rescue package over the weekend.

When the market spiked 400 points at the open on Monday, it was they who benefited and it again is the very same people who have been selling at ridiculous short-term profits all week.

Here, for your reading and dancing pleasure are the numbers:

Thursday, May 6: Right around 2:30 in the afternoon, the Dow plummets suddenly, about 600 points, for a total downdraft of almost 1000 points, finally bouncing off 9,787.17. Just as quickly as the market fell, it rebounded. Traders and individuals are stunned. The Dow closes at 10,520.32.

Friday, May 7: Already confused and afraid, market participants sell out of fear that there are nefarious forces at work and they are correct. Dow closes at 10,380.43, a 10-week low.

Monday, May 10: EU approves monstrous bailout for member nations nearing default. Market gaps up 400 points at the open, benefiting only those who bought in on Thursday or Friday. Dow closes at 10,785.14.

Tuesday, May 11: Stocks moderate as insiders quietly begin selling shares. Dow closes at 10,748.26.

Wednesday, May 12: In what looked very much like a short squeeze, insiders maximize profits by boosting the Dow another nearly-200 points. Dow closes at 10,896.91.

Thursday, May 13: Selling now commences in earnest as insiders ramp up trading. Dow closes down 114 points, at 10,782.95.

Friday, May 14: More vigorous selling, with a bottom intra-day at 10,537.25. Dow closes down another 162 points, at 10,620.16.

There you have it. From Friday's close of 10,380.43, after all the obfuscation and hoopla, the Dow bottoms a week later at 10,537.25, a minuscule 157-point move, with plenty of action (for thieves, crooks and criminals) in between.

I've said it before, but the action of the past week confirms that Wall Street is no place for individual investors. There are far too many sharks in the waters to ensure safe swimming.

Dow 10,620.16. -162.79 (1.51%)
NASDAQ 2,346.85, -47.51 (1.98%)
S&P 500 1,135.68, -21.75 (1.88%)
NYSE Composite 7,077.64, -156.73 (2.17%


Decliners beat advancers, 5600-989. New highs barely edged now lows, 101-87. Volume improved a bit over Thursday's levels, though with the market pointing down, that's an ill-boding omen.

NYSE Volume 6,872,919,000.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,596,956,000.00


Oil was splattered all over the trading pits, losing $2.79 on the session, to $71.61, a 12% decline in a month, though gas prices are still at or above the levels they were two weeks ago, when crude was $86/barrel. Motorists are neither stupid nor amused at this non-conforming development.

Even the metals settled down, with gold losing $1.40, to $1,227.40 and silver off 27 cents, to $19.20.

A wild week, unless you were paying attention at the end of the prior week. Then you saw the raw greed and corruption that is part and parcel of today's trading environment.

It stinks. People should be going to jail. Unfortunately, the government is likely in on the game.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

All About Today's Reversal, And Why It Matters

The downturn in equity markets today should not have come as a surprise to anybody who understands charts and amrket dynamics.

A nice chart of the Dow covering the past six months reveals the condition. The market is sitting right on its 50-day moving average with no clear direction, though lower seems to be the most likely move as days progress.

Recall the events of the past 5 trading days: After the "flash crash" (thanks to the geniuses at CNBC for giving it a nickname) of last Thursday, the Dow sank on Friday, had a sharp opening gap up and maintained that stature on Monday, dipped a bit on Tuesday, rallied above the 50-day moving average on Wednesday, and today closed below that important measuring stick.

Now, there's an easier way to look at these events, especially if you're a cynical observer such as I. After scooping up shares at the bottom on Thursday and Friday, the power players behind the scenes made fast cash on Monday, sold a little more on Tuesday, sucked in more late-comers on Wednesday and now are selling in earnest. The moves are being made in conjunction with various and many stock option plays, the May variety which expire on Friday, the 21st, being the most active.

Depending on how badly these power players - the same group likely behind the flash crash and other recent organized selling - want to hit the little guys on the other end of trades - and how soon - this little episode could take on some very interesting dimensions. They might be over-weighted on the long end, or they could be itching for another downdraft. The latter would make more sense from a chartist's perspective. Once a market breaks through a key level - like the 50-day MA - the corresponding next moves are usually more of the same, and this move was one of significantly violent quality, so the downside appears to be the more obvious choice.

Of course, these insiders are a savvy bunch and they've likely already discounted the idea that the market should behave in patterned ways, so they just might keep stocks chugging along, mirroring the 50-day until options expire. The cynical view is that they bought close to the bottom and are slowly selling at fat profits presently, though, and that patten should continue.

At the end of today's trading, there was a rush for the exits. Stocks closed at their lows of the session, which is one of the more profound daily indicators one can find. It indicates a real reluctance to maintain positions and even less commitment to any new purchases.

Dow 10,782.95, -113.96 (1.05%)
NASDAQ 2,394.36, -30.66 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,157.43, -14.24 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 7,234.37, -81.99 (1.12%)


On the day, decliners took the advantage over advancing issues, 4193-2349. There were 192 new highs to a paltry 53 new lows. This is an interesting development. The market is holding judgement in abeyance, perhaps awaiting some catalyst, or just marking time until the next move lower. Volume was down for the third consecutive day, another indication that the markets are poised to head even lower, likely back to test the Friday intra-day low of 10,221.50.

NYSE Volume 5,477,719,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,321,865,500.00


Commodity prices continued to cool. Crude oil maintained its relentless slide, losing another $1.25 per barrel, to $74.40. Even gold bugs were either spooked or taking profits, sending the price down by $13.90 per ounce, to $1,228.80. Silver also ran down 16 cents, to $19.48.

Much of today's selling was blamed on some interesting and disturbing comments from mainstream retailer Kohl's, which issued 2nd quarter fiscal 2010 guidance that fell short of expectations and noted that the average amount per transaction was down in the most recent quarter. Macy's also cited the same metric, days ago. With retailers cautious about consumer spending, they are acting as the canaries in the coal mine, warning that the current recovery - if one exists at all - may not be sustained. If they're right, stocks will find no bottom in the near term and the remainder of the year may be a wipeout for many corporations.

It's interesting to note that the January indicator predicted that 2010 would be a down year for stocks and maintains a solid record of correctly predicting the future economy, somewhere in the range of 85% accurate. Since the major indices are right about where they began the year, that long-ago (4 months) indicator overhangs the market like the sword of Damocles.

While Wall Street pondered its own fate, oil continues to surge from beneath the ocean into the Gulf of Mexico. With the disaster now entering its 4th week without resolution, the slick continues to grow and the oil continues to flow. That oil will go somewhere, eventually, but the drama is playing out in what appears to be a slow-motion nightmare on Bourbon Street.

At the end of it all, expect to see the end of the rig company, Transocean, drowned in a sea of lawsuits. The CEO of BP, Tony Hayward, almost certainly will be sacked, if the company even survives. As for Halliburton, the love-child of former US VP, that company seems to be born under a lucky star. The damage to the Gulf waters, the shorelands and the wetlands may be unbearable and unresolved for years to come.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Bump and Grind and All is Golden

Monday was the bump higher, Tuesday and Wednesday turned out to be significant grinders as investors regained confidence and continued to scoop up stocks since there's nothing else to buy besides maybe gold and treasuries, and the latter isn't granting much of a return these days.

Speculation is back in vogue, now that the latest crisis has passed from public view, though there will certainly be issues going forward, as always.

Dow 10,896.91, +148.65 (1.38%)
NASDAQ 2,425.02, +49.71 (2.09%)
S&P 500 1,171.67, +15.88 (1.37%)
NYSE Composite 7,316.36, +94.70 (1.31%)


Once again, advancing issues finished far ahead of decliners, 5470-1122; 195 new highs outpaced just 58 new lows. As much as the rally seemed vibrant and flourishing, volume declined for the third straight day, reinforcing the notion that while all the attention was focused on stocks going higher, there were wise guys taking some slivers of profit while the herd pushed to the extremes.

NYSE Volume 5,929,432,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,308,404,000.00


Gold continued to dominate the commodity space, breaking through to fresh all-time highs, another sign that global economies aren't quite as fit as their leaders would have you believe. The shiny stuff was up another $22.80, to $1,242.70 on the day. Silver gained 37 cents, to finish at $19.64. The metals have parted ways with oil significantly this week, as crude fell 72 cents to $75.65, while motorists are still anxiously awaiting a similar price reduction at the pump.

Despite the coming arrival of summer, oil, if the price were not so ham-handedly manipulated, could reach even lower levels around the $60/barrel mark by mid-July, though the sheiks and barons probably won't allow that to occur, instead focusing on limiting supply and choking consumers. Gold will continue to rocket higher in coming months unless sovereign economies actually discover fiscal integrity - an unlikely occurrence.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Hot Flashes and Mood Swings; Gold Shines

Financial markets continued to behave in disorganized, semi-rational manners.

Prior to the opening bell, stock futures were pointing toward a heavy downdraft, with Dow futures predicting close to a 100-point gap lower at the open and that is roughly where it stood, making what would turn out to be the low point of the day just five minutes into the trading day.

Stocks gained steadily until reaching a peak just before 2:00 pm and then relented, sliding steadily downward into the close. This is the second day in a row which has witnessed large opening gaps - Monday's to the upside and of greater magnitude, today's lower - which benefit only the most adroit professionals and are a bane to the small investor.

Volatility, though subdued when compared to the final two days of the prior week, remains at elevated levels and volume dropped off for the second straight session.

What the markets are attempting to digest is a spate of conflicting events concerning Europe and the bailout of Greece, changing politics in Great Britain, the continuing unnatural disaster from the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and a reft of economic data and information that is not easily deciphered.

Housing and unemployment remain as the great contradictory indicators to a general recovery. Without a meaningful rebound in home-buying and employment, any hope for sustained prosperity seem overblown. The nearly $1 trillion thrown at the monetary crisis in Europe is being regarded widely as nothing more than a temporary fix with structural problems as yet not addressed.

The huge bulk of unfunded future liabilities mostly in the form of pensions and health services are keeping a lid on the economies of European nations as well as the United States. Massive government current deficits are already strangling state budgets. In New York, efforts are underway to overturn portions of the state budget which calls for one-day-a-week furloughs for state employees. The budget and the measure was passed on Monday night by the state legislature, at the urging of lame-duck governor David Patterson.

Meanwhile, hearigs were underway in washington, D.C. and New Orleans, concerning Thursday's stock market "flash crash" and the events leading up to an immediately following the oil rig explosion which caused the continuing oil spill of the Louisiana coastline (see video at end of this post).

Dow 10,748.26, -36.88 (0.34%)
NASDAQ 2,375.31, +0.64 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,155.79, -3.94 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,221.66, -35.96 (0.50%)


Advancing issues outpaced declines on the day, 3719-2812; new highs surpassed new lows, 166-62. Volume was lower for the second straight session.

NYSE Volume 6,583,789,500.00
NASDAQ Volume 2,484,207,000.00


The big winner on the day was gold, which shot up $19.50, to $1,219.90, closing at an all-time high. Silver tagged along, rising 74 cents, to $19.27. Crude oil futures finished the day 43 cents to the downside, at $76.37.

What's moving markets, now that second quarter earnings releases have been pretty much digested, are the markets themselves. Momentum trading is in vogue as equities seek direction. It's a turbulent time not only for stocks, but for stock-watchers as well.

Oil spill video: Times-Picayune Tuesday update