Friday, November 19, 2010

Dull End to a Wild Fortnight

At the end of a wild two weeks, everybody needed a break and they got one, in one of the slowest trading days in some time. News flow was also minimal.

In sync with the rest of the market, General Motors (GM), on its second day of trading as a new, reformed entity, fell almost back to its IPO price, hitting 33.11 at just about 10:00 am. The stock and the rest of the market (Dow was down 62 points) took a sudden turn and churned to slight, positive gains by the sessions end.

Overall, the major indices have barely moved since the mid-term elections. The Fed's incessant currency devaluation efforts have also, thus far been for naught.

Dow 11,203.55, +22.32 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 2,518.12, +3.72 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,199.73, +3.04 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,641.08, +21.14 (0.28%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,878,265,250
NYSE Volume 3,921,869,500


Advancers finished well ahead of losers, 3546-2632. There were 279 new highs and 73 new lows. Volume was extremely light.

Oil was flat, at $81.85. Silver last printed 27.35, +0.36. Gold spot closed at $1354.10, up 60 cents.

Rinse, repeat, ponder the future. Ireland remains in talks with the EC, ECB and IMF. They're getting the "full monty" from the financiers, if you will.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Market Motors Ahead on GM IPO

The entire trading day was a well-orchestrated event staged by the power brokers of Wall Street, the government and the shills on CNBC, designed exclusively to give the pet project of the bailout bunch, General Motors, a bright and cheery IPO send-off.

Shares of GM's rebirth IPO (initial public offering - somewhat of an oxymoron in this case) priced the previous day at $33 and opened with immediate upticks shortly after the general markets had commenced trading. That it would get a positive set up was assured by a gargantuan ramp-up in the futures, ostensibly on news that Ireland was veering toward accepting a bailout from either the EU or the IMF or a combination of both. Only in these wacky times can the fact that a nation is being saved from ruin by the very same bankers who ruined it foment a powerful rally, but, that's the world in which we now live.

The set-up got GM off to a nice start with the rest of he market despite fears that some traders would "flip" the stock, and surely some did. Shares of GM hit a high of 35.99 shortly after the open and retreated the rest of the day, hitting a low of 33.89 before settling at 34.19 at the close for a gain of 3.61%, no big deal.

The Fed pumped more money in the direction of the primary dealers. This is a permanent fixture now as the Fed has already set down a timetable for a daily POMO through December 9, with the exception of the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving (next week).

Another interesting note was news that Warren Buffet was to receive the Medal of Freedom, just a day after practically falling all over himself in praise of the government in his NY Times op-ed. At least he'll be in equally-suspect company. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former US President George H.W. Bush are among other recipients named by President Obama.

From this we can only surmise that the level of greed, corruption and naked narcissism has finally reached critical mass amongst the elitists.

Dow 11,181.23, +173.35 (1.57%)
NASDAQ 2,514.40, +38.39 (1.55%)
S&P 500 1,196.69, +18.10 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 7,619.94, +131.18 (1.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,083,305,250.00
NYSE Volume 5,373,779,000


Advancers trounced decliners, 5093-1419; new highs surpassed new lows for the second straight session, 299-59, but volume, up to 20% of which on the NYSE was attributed to trades on GM, was weak.

Commodities also ramped up. The front end of the crude oil futures gained $1.41, to $81.85. Gold picked up $16.10, to $1,353.00, while silver rose more than 5%, up by $1.32, to $26.83.

Unemployment claims were little changed from the previous week and October stock options expire tomorrow. The latest word from the continent is that Irish leaders are still resistant to a bailout, though the pressure is building for them to take the money and plunge the country into an even worse situation, with bills and interest owing to the IMF with no hope of ever paying its way out. This same thing has happened before, in Argentina and other South American countries. The usual outcome is the rape of the nation's wealth to the detriment of the populace.

Erin go Bragh, indeed.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

A Fairly Quiet Day Awakens Warren Buffett

Ireland didn't accept the EU or IMF offers for a bank bailout, nor did they default on their debt, and the mortgage/housing/foreclosure problems also didn't go away because the AGs of 50 states are in negotiations on a settlement with the banks.

But Warren Buffet's fawning praise for the worst scoundrels in the government, published today as an op-ed "letter" from "Nephew Warren" to Uncle Sam raised more than just eyebrows around the financial world and in the public conscience.

Buffet, one of the world's richest men, benefitted greatly from the 2008 bank bailouts, snatching up a piece of Goldman Sachs (about $5 billion worth) and Wells Fargo, putting the Oracle of Omaha clearly in the camp of the serial monetary abusers atop our grand government/industry pyramid.

His effort at humor or insight was simply lost on most people, especially those wh have been kicked out of their homes, lost jobs or simply are having trouble making ends meet in the worst economy since the Great Depression. Buffet singled out Hank Paulson, Sheila Bair, Tim Geithner, George W. Bush and Ben Bernanke for acting with "courage and dispatch" amidst the evolving crisis.

The piece came as somewhat of a surprise from Buffett, normally fairly apolitical, expressing thanks from a government of which he is often critical.

Other than that, the Fed pumped another $7..9 billion into the primary dealers and stocks stalled once again. So far, even though it's still early in the game, the Fed's QE2 hasn't amounted to much of anything, and since the money goes to banks, who will likely keep it rather than lend it, it isn't going to do anything. In truth, QE2 is nothing more than a backdoor bailout for the banks suffering with heavy real estate losses both on and off their books. But, who's looking?

Dow 11,007.88, -15.62 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,476.01, +6.17 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,178.59, +0.25 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,488.76, +16.13 (0.22%)


Advancing issues led decliners, 4719-2726, and new highs took back the advantage from new lows after relinquishing control for a day, yesterday, 179-80. There's quite a bit of pumping in individual issues keeping the lows and highs separated at this point. Obviously, with options expiration just two days off, there's plenty of arbitrage between stock prices, puts and calls to call this any kind of "orderly" market. It is anything but.

Volume continued in the doldrums as it has for the entire year.

NASDAQ Volume 1,836,918,250.00
NYSE Volume 4,508,769,500


Oil continued to nosedive, losing another $1.90 on the day, to $80.44. It had been nearly 90 just a week ago. Gold fell $1.50, to $1,336.90. Silver bucked the trend, up 28 cents, to $25.51.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Fed's QE2 an Abject Failure; Ireland Says NO to EU, IMF

Events are developing, albeit slowly, but as far as one can tell, the incessant pumping of cash into markets by the Fed (another $6 billion today) has not fixed anything, solved anything, nor does it appear that it ever will amount to anything other than another massive debt upon US taxpayers.

With that in mind, maybe it's time for taxpayers to consider exactly what purpose does what they're paying to the government purport. Basically, every dime a taxpayer has sent to Washington, DC in the past two years has been very much like throwing said dime into a wishing well. Nothing changes, no charges will ever be brought against the openly criminal banks and congress simply covers up for them.

In Ireland, forces are at work trying to get the Irish government to accept austerity measures from either the EU or IMF or both, expressly to BAIL OUT THEIR INSOLVENT BANKS. It's an important distinction that the Irish people and the Irish government are not - by and large - not in default, it is the banks that are in deep, deep trouble, trouble that threatens - and should - spill over to Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece, then France, the UK and eventually here to the US.

The entire financial disaster we have been suffering over the past two years has been entirely the fault of the banks, in every country, who pledge allegiance to no nation, only to money. The time has come for the people of countries around the world to DEMAND that their governmental representatives refuse any further dealings with the banks, to come to the truth that the banks are criminals of the grandest scale, and that they need to be charged, prosecuted and made to make reparations and serve time AS CRIMINALS.

The banks have brought the world to a standstill, yet the politicians - save a few brave souls in Ireland, possibly - have neither the inclination nor the raw nerve to speak the truth and bring JUSTICE.

We will shortly learn that even state Attorneys General have no backbone and are likely paid handsomely by the banks, having already wrapped up their investigations and are seeking a settlement with the banks rather than prosecuting them for the widespread abuses that have recently come to light in residential foreclosures.

The banks continue to steal the wealth of the people and the politicians are only interested in sweeping the problems under various rugs which now are so lumpy that one cannot walk upon them.

In light of ongoing developments, we advise withdrawing all unnecessary funds from any large bank, those being mostly Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup, and having as little to do with them as possible. If the banks have no means of accessing the money of people, they will die a long, slow, painful death. While a quick resolution via the truth is preferable, a long slow turning of the screws may have to do.

God save us; we are all slaves to the banks.

Meanwhile, Wall Street voiced its general displeasure with all things once again, for the fifth time in the last seven session (six of seven for the S&P and NASDAQ) by selling off, this time in more pronounced fashion.

Dow 11,023.50, -178.47 (1.59%)
NASDAQ 2,469.84, -43.98 (1.75%)
S&P 500 1,178.34, -19.41 (1.62%)
NYSE Composite 7,472.63, -144.88 (1.90%)


Declining issues shellacked advancers in the broadest selling seen in months, 5399-1146. New lows took the edge over new highs, ending a long string of wins for the highs stretching back to March, 2009, 237-176. This flip should serve as an absolute, without-a-doubt sell signal to anybody who still has skin in the game. As the author of this blog has advised against stocks since 2007, preferring only cash, silver, gold, raw land and tools of trade as "investments", there will be no pain felt from any market decline, correction or crash, though it appears evident that we are on the cusp of one of the latter two options.

Volume was quite high, another sell signal, considering the depth of today's decline.

NASDAQ Volume 2,261,298,250
NYSE Volume 6,063,200,500


Stocks weren't the only investments losing value. Commodities were roundly hammered. Crude oil fell another $2.52, to $82.34. Foodstuffs - wheat, corn and soybeans - all suffered more than five percent declines in price on the Chicago Board of Trade. Gold's last print was off $31.10, to $1338.40. Silver fell 86 cents, to $25.23, as exchanges continue to increase margin requirements on not just the precious metals but on many diverse commodities.

The global financial system once again is stressed beyond its means, mainly because losses at the world's largest banks have not been realized. Unstable conditions will continue to be the norm until these losses are realized and written down. That has not been an option the banks or the politicians are willing to consider.

There is only one solution which will solve much of the crisis, and that is to shut down many of the global banking interests, including central banks, and limit government's ability to borrow.

Monday, November 15, 2010

QE2 Flops Again: Stocks Down, Bond Yields UP!

Pumping another $7.9 billion into the coffers of the Primary Dealers (the usual crooks: JP Morgan, BofA, Goldman Sachs, et. al.) seems to be working wonders for... just about nobody, unless you were convinced it was such a bad idea you went short stocks, bonds and commodities all at the same time. Stocks were initially up, but took an abrupt about-face at 3:00, with the NASDAQ and S&P finishing marginally lower and the Dow closing with single digit gains.

If that's what we're getting for a mere $7.9 billion, what should we expect when the Fed's QE2 program runs its course and delivers the total blow of more than $800 billion? By June, the 10-year note, which was under 2.5% before the Fed commenced its dangerous liquidity action, and is over 2.94% now, will probably be running at 6-8%, and if that's not good enough, stocks will be off significantly, maybe the Dow in the range of 4-5000 strikes your fancy or the S&P toying with the 850 mark makes your day.

Our intrepid Captain Blowhard Bernanke, obviously a complete toady to powers well beyond his control, is attempting to stimulate the economy (or so he says) by pushing on a string. His relentless injections of capital into markets are already causing such extreme distortions in all capital markets that 23 high-level economists, strategists and analysts sent a letter requesting he curtail his actions.

Obviously, Bernanke isn't listening to anyone and the US public pays for it every passing day that he is allowed to pursue his reckless and possibly destructive policies. One would like to believe that congress would eventually exert some control, but that's not an option for at least another two months, as the current congress is of the lame duck variety and the new one won't get down to business until the third week of january, 2011.

So, we're stuck with probably about $200 billion going up in smoke on the wing and a prayer that it will somehow cause inflation that will stimulate the economy. While his rampant spending spree (just in time for Christmas) will almost certainly result in inflation, that's not considered a good thing by the vast majority of Americans. And even if we spend more because everything costs more, where's the gain?

Somebody needs to put an end to this madman's reign of financial terror. Perhaps the American people could find the will to protest at some point, though that seems about as good a possibility as Dallas winning the Super Bowl this season.

And, since no bad deed gets punished these days, the financial press will continue to place the blame on Ireland or Portugal or the first EU nation that officially defaults. The global financial condition continues to worsen by the day, thanks to the very people who are supposed to have a handle on such things.

Dow 11,201.97 9.39 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,513.82 4.39 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,197.75 1.46 (0.12%)
NYSE Compos 7,617.51 5.73 (0.08%)


Losers edged out winners by a narrow margin, 3234-3187. New highs continued to shrink while new lows expanded again, with the tally at 183-95. If this indicator flips, its usually a sure sign that lower stock market prices are dead ahead and would continue for some time. What many are calling a "blip" may turn into a rout. Volume remained sluggish, if one can even call it that. Markets are so blatantly manipulated (as today's rise and sell-off would argue), the next round of theft may come in the form of another major correction to the downside.

NASDAQ Volume 1,866,283,250
NYSE Volume 4,075,506,000.00


The front end NYMEX light sweet crude oil contract finished unchanged again, at $84.88. Gold slid once more, this time to a one-month low of $1360.40, off $8.40. Silver dropped 56 cents, to $25.48. Who knows, maybe silver will come back to the low 20s or even the teens, making for a tantalizing entry point for renewed buying. A 50% retracement of the recent gains would bring it back to around $24.00, which should spur buying interest into the end of the year.