Friday, April 15, 2011

Uppers and Downers

It's official. This stock market is a yo-yo without anyone pulling the string. It goes whatever direction it (or somebody) pleases, mostly up when it's supposed to be down and vice versa.

Though stocks finished with gains for the day, they were down for the week, but that doesn't really matter in the grand scheme. One would assume, with Google getting smacked down 47.81 points (8.24%) and Bank of America (BAC, 12.82, -0.31, -2.36%) missing EPS estimates by 11 cents, all of the indices would have gotten the clue and headed toward the exits.

But, though it looked like that might be the case early in the day, by the closing bell the major exchanges were showing broad gains, despite obvious signs of a weakening, or at least, stumbling, economy.

The best play has been to not fight the Fed, which continues to mint money and send it out through its proxies, the Primary Dealers, into the market, and that's probably what's driven the last eight months of gains. Advice might include steering clear of equities until the end of QE2, some time in June.

Dow 12,341.83, +56.68 (0.46%)
NASDAQ 2,764.65, +4.43 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,319.68, +5.16 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 8,400.31, +26.15 (0.31%)


Gainers outpaced losers, 4353-2152. On the NASDAQ, new highs took over the top spot with 84 new highs and 33 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 108 new highs and 14 new lows. Volume? No, none, non-existent.

NASDAQ Volume 1,794,544,375
NYSE Volume 4,331,161,000


Oil was up again, gaining $1.55, to $109.66. Gold surged $13.60, to $1,486.00, and silver continued its monumental climb, up 91 cents, to $42.57. Gold is at all-time highs and silver at 31-year highs, fast approaching the all-time high of $50/ounce back in the heady days of the Hunt Brothers, circa 1980.

A normal market would not have oil, gold and silver all up and equities rising as well, so the only conclusion to draw is that this is no ordinary market. It's very unusual, to say the least, though stocks still can't seem to do anything more than a Texas two-step, one forward, two back.

Commodity traders, however, have had a field day of late, and for gold and silver bugs and bugettes, they've had a great run for over a decade. In 2000, gold was under $300 and silver traded for $5 or $6 per ounce. The PMs have been the best investments, eleven years running, with no end in sight.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Fade the Banks: BofA, JP Morgan, Citi, Goldman Sachs Under Scrutiny

We found significant deficiencies that represent not only unsafe and unsound practices, but a breakdown in way customers are treated...

That was the statement made by acting Comptroller of the Currency John Walsh in regards to the Consent Order directed at the nation's sixteen largest banks, issued by his and other regulatory agencies yesterday.

Initial reaction was that the ruling was more a wrist-slapping by the regulators, but Walsh came out in its defense, as did others, such as FDIC's Sheila Bair.

The order includes provisions for the banks to undertake a complete review of their foreclosure practices and rectify any errors that may have affected consumers negatively. Additionally, the banks are instructed to pursue a “comprehensive, independent review” of their foreclosures from 2009 and 2010, institute a system for a single contact person for each foreclosure or mortgage modification action. The agencies - which include the Federal Reserve and the Office of Thrift Supervision - will closely monitor the banks' progress, look more closely at their practices and determine appropriate fines for each firm.

These actions, apart from the voluminous litigation already begun and sure to follow, plus the conclusion of 50 state attorneys general is likely to cost the banks a good deal of time, effort and money. When all is said and done, revealing their openly fraudulent practices and procedures will have two major effects: 1) they will not be so prone to play fast and loose with mortgage money, and 2) housing loans will become even more difficult to get.

On the surface these outcomes may be more of a detriment to recovery in the housing market, but homes will at least become more affordable. Making it difficult to qualify for a loan, the cost of residential housing will fall accordingly until some balance is achieved in the market. After that, homeowners can begin going after tax assessments and "fair value" assessments which are now likely more than 40% too high in many hard-impacted communities.

While the process will be riddled with starts and stops, the long-range outcome should be more affordable housing for lower and middle class people, without onerous tax implications. we may be turning a corner after all.

One other note of interest in terms of bank-hating worldwide was Senator Carl Levin's well-directed attack on Goldman Sachs today:
The Senator says he wants the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to examine whether Goldman Sachs violated the law by misleading clients who bought collateralized debt obligations without knowing the firm was betting they would fall in value.

Levin believes that not only did Goldman Sachs' executives delude their clients and break their fiduciary trust, but also lied to congress when brought in front of the Financial Inquiry panel.

Heck, as our link confirms, even FoxNews is pushing this agenda forward, but it remains to be seen if Attorney General Eric Holder will come out of hiding and actually pursue prosecution. If not, maybe it's time to indict the AG himself, because Levin and other members of congress have rightly identified Goldman Sachs and their brethren in the "big banking" world as the criminals who caused the financial meltdown of 2008 and sank the economy.

Watch Senator Levin tear into Goldman Sachs' Daniel Sparks:



Wall Street's reaction to this background noise was all-too-typical behavior by the very same banks that have grown in size over the past 2 1/2 years: they turned a perfectly plausible market downturn into marginal gains. The Dow was down 107 points before the pimps and pumpers jacked it up to a 14 point gain by the closing bell.

As expected, in the face of bad news, the financial gamblers could only cover their tracks, put on happy faces and say "all is well." Perhaps these thieves will be singing another tune when a few of them are perp-walked from their ivory towers in full view of the public which has grown to hate them and all they stand for.

All we've seen from the likes of the biggest banks in America is denial of wrongdoing, obfuscation, outright lying, and complete, unabashed manipulation of all markets they touch - bonds, equities and commodities - not to mention the under-the-table mortgage securitization, CDO and debt swap markets.

They are the most ruthless criminals on the planet, completely without conscience, and hopefully, lawmakers are beginning to catch on to their evil ways. Corners must be turned; equity and law must prevail.

Dow 12,285.15, +14.16 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,760.22, -1.30 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,314.52, +0.11 (0.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,374.16, +6.85 (0.08%)


Not to belabor the obviously-fragile nature of the markets, advancing issues outdid decliners oddly enough, 3611-2838. However, new lows overtook new highs on the NASDAQ, 50-49, but new highs remained stubbornly ahead of new lows on the NYSE, 53-23, though the margin has shrunk considerably over the past few session. Volume remained purely a function of lack of interest.

NASDAQ Volume 1,728,764,375
NYSE Volume 4,249,863,500


Perhaps in response to the continuing turmoil, or maybe because the "Sultans of Swap" were too busy shedding documents to keep a handle on them, commodities took another robust turn positive. Crude oil gained another $1.00 during the NYMEX session, to close at $108.11, but gold and silver took home the trophies. Gold rocketed to another in a series of all-time highs, gaining $16.80, to $1,472.40 and silver exploded up $1.43, to $41.66, though both were higher in foreign markets, with gold at $1475.70 and silver romping higher at $42.14 per ounce.

Perhaps, more than turning corners, financial markets are meeting their eventual end, with paper currencies under attack from the growing howls of the general public worldwide, unhappy with rising prices and stagnant wages, governments with too much power and not enough nerve, honesty or will to do right.

These explosive moves in the precious metals are not to be taken lightly. The global Ponzi scheme of fiat money is being put to a severe test and is failing badly, today's activity just another warm-up for the real fireworks coming when the US congress considers whether or not to raise the debt ceiling, something they've done 174 times before.

From the ominous sounds emanating from the Tea Party wing in the House of Representatives, these could be the final days not only for the dollar as a reserve currency, but for every form of money not backed by some tangible asset, of which gold and silver are the obvious choices.

After the bell, Google announced its results for the first quarter of 2011, and from the looks of how it was trading after hours, investors were none too pleased that they missed their earnings per share estimate by three cents.

Even though Google topped revenue expectations, the stock was down nearly 30 points in the after-hours, a decline of more than five per cent.

That does not bode well for tomorrow's opening, which of course will have as an added bonus, the earnings release of the bank everyone loves to hate, Bank of America. Friday ought to be a doozy of a day.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Obama Speaks, JP Morgan Pops, Stops, Feds Love Banks

Sometimes you just have to sit back and take it all in, which is precisely what marketeers did today after JP Morgan put out a bogus earnings report prior to the open, and President Obama put down a line in the sand for Republicans over upcoming budgets.

Market futures pointed higher prior to the open after JP Morgan Chase (JPM) announced 1st quarter results, saying they beat wall Street expectations of $1.15 per share with a resounding $1.28 in the quarter. This sent the major indices off to the races at the open, but as soon as discoveries were made that Morgan's earnings figure was boosted by a 0.29 per share reduction in credit loan loss reserves, things began to turn ugly, and in a hurry.

After opening up 62 points to the good, the Dow Jones Industrials were seeing red by noon. Likewise, JP Morgan's 62 cent gain turned into a 76 cent loss (45.88) at the low of the day, just after 2:00 pm EDT. By the close, Morgan and the Dow had regained some ground, though JPM still finished down 39 cents and was quoted lower in the after-hours.

Around 2:00 pm, President Obama offered a retort to Republican Paul Ryan's proposed 2012 budget plan in a speech at George Washington University. The President outlined plans for cuts in defense spending and saving in Medicare and reiterated his 2008 campaign pledge to scale back the Bush tax cuts, saying he went along with Republican plans to extend them last year only so he could save middle class taxes from rising.

Obama's plan, in simple terms plans to cut the budget deficit by $4 trillion over the next 12 years, keeping intact the two largest entitlement programs, Medicare and Social Security, which was not mentioned for any revisions.

While the president was speaking, markets gyrated in both directions, finally heading into the positive, though only slightly, by the close. At the very least, the president did a good job of setting the parameters for a budget fight that figures to be a battle royale on Capitol Hill through the summer and into the fall.

Even though the markets broke a four-day losing streak, gains were minimal, the up early, lower later signature of trading was straight out of the bear market playbook.

Dow 12,270.99, +7.41 (0.06%)
NASDAQ 2,761.52, +16.73 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,314.41, +0.25 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 8,367.31, +6.85 (0.08%)


Advancers took back the edge over decliners, 3493-2976, but new highs and new lows were split, with a 46-46 tie on the NASDAQ and new highs bettering new lows, 50-15 on the NYSE. Volume was, as usual, uninspired.

NASDAQ Volume 1,766,435,000
NYSE Volume 4,275,430,000


Commodities snapped back to life with WTI crude futures gaining 86 cents, up to $107.11 on the NYMEX, snapping two-days of delightful declines. Gold picked up a gain of $2.00, to $1,455.60, while silver added 17 cents to $40.24.

The budget deal worked out last Friday now appears to be ready to pass both houses without much dissent, though some members of both parties have signaled that they would vote against the measure due to ideological values. A vote is scheduled for the House on Thursday.

In other news affecting JP Morgan and its cohorts (the 14 largest US banks), federal regulators slapped the collective wrists of the banks, but imposed no sanctions, fines or plausible remedies to foreclosure and mortgage servicing problems which surfaced last fall during the "robo-signing" scandal.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued the settlement after markets had closed.

"The review uncovered unsafe and unsound practices, violations of law and foreclosure processes geared toward speed and quantity, instead of quality and accuracy," the OTS said in a statement.
That qualifies as the understatement of the decade. Not a single banker or functionary has been indicted, nor have any of the banks in question been subject to any serious scrutiny over their abuses that likely deprived many homeowners of due process.

This "agreement" leaves conditions almost as they were, with the banks still holding all the cards and homeowners getting no relief. It is expected that foreclosures will proceed through the courts as they have, with judges scrutinizing individual cases for flawed paperwork and other transgressions routine to the practice of the banking cartel.

Without a workable framework, the process will likely bog down the real estate market for the next five to ten years, as title defects, lost notes, fraudulent assignments and other illegal practices are given a green light by the nation's regulators. Obviously, some things in Washington remain just the same, as regulators look the other way when it comes to their favorites sons and campaign contributors.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Stocks Take Another Hit, But, Why?

Major US indices fell for a fourth consecutive session - with the exception of the Dow, which eked out a 1-point gain on Monday - and there are likely several reasons why this downtrend has continued and actually accelerated, with the biggest drop coming today.

After all, it is the beginning of earnings season, and first quarter results are expected to be pretty good. But is the market looking down the road, or could investors be wary of margin squeezes caused by runaway commodity prices, or consumer depression caused by over-the-top gas prices?

One thing's for sure: the winter was a long and cold one, and nobody got a break from high heating bills in a majority of the heating states of the Northeast and Midwest. That certainly couldn't have helped household budgets much and a Gallup poll released today suggests that Americans are as displeased with current and future conditions as they were this time in 2009 and through the middle of 2010.

The poll showed that only 33% of respondents in March think the economy is "getting better." That's a drop from 36% in February and 41% in January.

Another possibility is that the now-month-old tragedy in Japan is also worsening, as officials raised the level of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant accident to 7, on a par with the disaster at Chernobyl, 25 years ago.

Perhaps the stock market wasn't really sold on the late-night budget deal reached on Friday night (We had expected this was only a continuing resolution and were right) and the potential that the deal could fall apart. Details are just beginning to trickle out that the cuts amount to much less than the $38.5 billion reported and that members of both parties, in bouth houses of congress, are displeased.

At Business Insider, Joe Weisenthal reports that the government might still shut down, this Friday. The AP has details from just where the phantom cuts are coming.

So, here we go again? The 2011 fiscal year ends September 30 (about 5 1/2 months from now), and the budget is still being trimmed, debated and flayed? This is no way to run a country, especially one as on the financial ropes as the USA. Get ready for more drama from the queens on Capitol Hill and at the White House.

The Hill has more detail on the cuts, which will go to a House floor vote on Thursday. The legislation is known as H.R. 1473, for those wishing to keep score at home.

Notwithstanding the aforementioned possibilities and potentialities, the Fed's ending of thier policy of handing over free money to Primary Dealers in June, via QE2, might be on the minds of many in the investment world. When that nearly $100 billion a month stops, so might Wall Street's 2-year-long party. In a related note, the Fed released it's schedule of banker handouts (POMO) for the remainder of April through May 12.

All of this news added up to some big drops in the equity markets, centered around just about 1% overall. Commodities were hit even harder (see below).

Dow 12,263.58, -117.53 (0.95%)
NASDAQ 2,744.79, -26.72 (0.96%)
S&P 500 1,314.16, -10.30 (0.78%)
NYSE Composite 8,360.46, -85.31 (1.01%)


Declining issues clobbered advancers again, 4883-1663, a nearly 3:1 ratio, the largest of the past four sessions. On the NASDAQ, new lows overtook new highs, 56-39, but it was the other way around on the stubborn NYSE, with new highs holding a slim edge over new lows, 41-20. A similar pattern was witnessed in March, with the new lows overtaking new highs on both indices for 4-6 days, but the supposed correction was cut short by a surprise rally that now seems to have run up against resistance and is failing fast. Volume was not spectacular, and would most accurately be described as moribund. Another few days of this, and another row over continuing funding to the federal government could put the kibosh on 2011 gains, short and long term.

NASDAQ Volume 1,798,176,500
NYSE Volume 4,735,433,500


Oil took another massive hit in price on Tuesday, with WTI crude futures falling $3.67, to $106.25, and even lower after NYMEX trading closed. That's a two-day drop of $6.52 per barrel and motorists can only hope the trend continues. There are a lot of speculators in the market, and estimates range from them making up anywhere from 10-40% of the oil price.

Of course, in a real world, with real world consequences coming from an actually-functioning Justice Department, that would otherwise be known as price-fixing. Since the Attorney General hasn't been seen in six or eight months, and is generally regarded as the worst ever, don't expect anything like even an investigation to commence any time soon. We hear the name of the AG is Eric Holder, but nobody's been able to confirm that.

Along with oil, a good number of food and grain commodities are coming off their highs. Corn, soybeans and wheat were down the most, with lean hogs and live cattle following the trend. Gold slipped $14.50, to $1,453.60. Silver fell 55 cents, to settle in at $40.07 per ounce.

It has been said that one day does not make a trend, and there's truth in that, but maybe four straight declines in major indices are significant enough for somebody to take notice. It's no secret that the US system is largely bankrupt and operating on fumes and smoke, so it might be just a matter of time for the markets to correct. Naturally, the meddling Fed has kept the rally going with oodles of cash, and just to be sure, they gave some to the wives of some already-rich bankers, as Matt Taibbi reports for Rolling Stone.

Fair warning: reading Taibbi's latest story might lead to vomiting or breaking of inanimate objects. Strap in securely, as this story reveals just how corrupt and unbalanced the entire bailout process has been and continues to be.

Paging Ron Paul, paging Ron Paul. The country is calling on you to run for president.

Monday, April 11, 2011

No Euphoria Over Budget Deal, Earnings

One might have expected some kind of reaction from the stock market after Friday night's final hour deal to keep the government running, or even from advance interest in the deluge of upcoming corporate earnings reports, but, despite an early session push higher, stocks drifted lower and lower throughout the session.

The Dow jumped out of the gate to an early high, up 62 points, but gave all expect one paltry point back as the day progressed.

While the theory may be that the government was supposed to remain open and in business, so no, the stock market would not react, the reality is that since the major indices bumped headlong into resistance on Wednesday, there's been nothing but retreat and even a robust earnings season (which is unlikely) may not be able to shake the markets from their sideways-down direction.

On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials, the smallest index by numbers (30 stocks), though the largest by measure, was the only one to post a gain in any of the past three sessions, and even that was somewhat of an aberration caused by heavy buying of Alcoa at the close.

As it was, Alcoa (AA), the world's largest aluminum manufacturer, and traditionally the first company in the Dow to report, was off 15 cents at the close (17.77) and was trading marginally higher (+0.06) in after-hours trading. The company reported earnings of 28 cents per share, a penny above estimates, but revenue short of expectations by almost two per cent.

Dow 12,381.11, +1.06 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,771.51, -8.91 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,324.46, -3.71 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 8,445.77, -38.17 (0.45%)


Even though stocks finished with small movement, declining issues danced all over advancers, 4471-2165, a ratio of more than 2:1. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled a mere 59, with 32hitting new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led the way, 108-16, over new lows. Volume, on the first day of the week, was encouraging, as it was not horrible, though still just barely with a pulse.

NASDAQ Volume 2,039,947,625
NYSE Volume 3,841,427,750


Thanks to some large positions being taken off, notably by Goldman Sachs, the oil rally came to an abrupt halt on Monday. WTI crude futures fell $2.85, to $109.92 and were down even more after the NYMEX close. Gold dropped $6.00, to $1,468.10, while silver managed to remain flat, at $40.61.

With the budget deal due to be singed and passed sometime this week, investors will be focusing squarely on quarterly reports over the next few weeks, and prospects are said to be good, with the vast majority of companies meeting or beating Wall Street expectations.