Thursday, August 18, 2011

Here We Go Again: Europe, US Equity Markets Smashed

Like a pop band performing an encore number, the wild, swing days of last week are here with us again, doing a sophisticated limbo beneath the various 200-day moving averages. The continent formerly known as Europe slowly is sinking into a combination of economic atrophy and social anarchy while the country previously preferred to as the greatest democracy ever invented, the USA, shifts and contorts like a belly dancer with stomach cramps and gas.

One could take their pick today from a generous selection of tawdry economic news and data, beginning with the story reported by Zero Hedge that an unnamed European bank (speculation is that its either Societe General or an Italian or Austrian bank) borrowed $500 million from the ECB's emergency lending window at a 1.1% rate.

That got the entertainment kicked off in Europe with a notable bang, as the major bourses in the land of socialism held blood-letting sessions with the national indices down between 4 and 6%, Germany's DAX leading the way lower with a 5.82% decline.

By the time markets opened in New York, futures were careening headlong into the abyss after initial unemployment claims were reported at 408,000 in the most recent reporting period and July CPI came in with a whopping 0.5% rise - a 6% annualized inflation rate - which took almost everybody - except possibly President Obama, who was preparing for a two-week stay at Martha's Vineyard - by surprise, especially after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told us all that inflationary pressures were "transitory" (he also confided to Representative and presidential candidate Ron Paul that gold was not money... such a witty fellow).

Were that not enough for the market to digest, a couple more tasty morsels were delivered just a half hour into the trading session. Existing home sales for July were reported at an annualized rate of 4.67 million, after a 4.84 million read last month, but the real hot pepper came from the Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Index, which, after posting a tepid 3.2 reading in July, came in - on expectations of a 1.0 reading - at... wait for it... minus 30.7 (yes, -30.7), the lowest number in 2 1/2 years and now on scale with New York's Empire Index which last week posted an equally disturbing negative read of -7.7 on Monday.

Naturally, nobody gave a whit about the New York number, but the Philly fiasco was just too magnificent to ignore. Stocks, already down significantly, swiftly dove further, with the Dow Jones Industrials losing 170 points in the ten minutes following the double dose of decrepitude.

The sudden collapse of index prices was stunning to view, though the gaping maws of CNBC's on-air personalities provided dark comic relief. Stocks drifted for the rest of the day, but managed to stage a last-ditch rally with just ten minutes left in the session, boosting the Dow about 100 points into the close, just in time for options expiry on Friday.

Dow 10,990.58, -419.63 (3.68%)
NASDAQ 2,380.43, -131.05 (5.22%)
S&P 500 1,140.65, -53.24 (4.46%)
NYSE Composite 7,079.41, -339.53 (4.58%)


Declining issues decimated advancers, 6094-634, a nearly 10:1 ratio. New lows overpowered new highs on the NASDAQ, 253-2 (yes, two, as in 2 new 52-week highs), while on the NYSE there were also just two (2) new highs, against 208 new lows. The combined figure of 4 new highs and 461 new lows verifies our repeated suggestion that the highs-lows indicator is as reliable a simple instrument as is available and is currently suggesting that the now-confirmed market correction will shortly morph into a a full blown bear market as Europe and the United State plunge into the fearsome double-dip recession, if not already there.

Volume, despite the ridiculous assumptions made throughout the day by CNBC's dapper Bob Pisani (I really do watch too much TV) that today's volume was not significant, was, in fact, quite strong, and with good reason, as banks in Europe and the US took the brunt of the selloff. European banks were hardest hit, with losses between 6 and 11% on the day.

NASDAQ Volume 2,785,477,500
NYSE Volume 7,141,215,000


Meanwhile, the oil crazies were unloading their gooey stuff as quickly as possible, sending WTI futures down nearly six percent, dropping $5.20, to $82.38.

There were bright spots, and those were in precious metals. Gold rocketed $28.20 to another record price of $1,822.00, while silver tried desperately to keep pace, gaining 38 cents, to $40.69.

As for Friday, one should expect a little more of the same, though it is worth noting that these wickedly manipulated markets have a penchant for turning on a dime, as they did last week. Eventually, however, this all ends in tears, as the Euro will be soon dispatched to currency hell, where it belongs, taking the world economy into a place nobody wants to be.

Smoke 'em if you got 'em and live it up while you can. By Christmas, this could be really, really, really, really, really, and I do mean really, ugly.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Market is Sick, Worn-out and Overvalued

One look at the general direction of trading today gives the impression that this is a market running completely on fumes, exhausted from last week's frenzied action and unsure about the immediate future.

Despite three of the four major averages finishing in the green, today's high open and low close are classic technical signals of a market in despair. The volume has subsided, but the VIX is still very high, over 30, and the complacency of trading today was something of a surprise, considering the still-shaky economic conditions in both the US and Europe, though it does seem that outside of the usual gang of day-traders and algo followers most of the retail investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude.

To that point, it was reported today by the ICI (Investment Company Institute) that mutual fund outflows totaled $40 billion in the past week. From the report, "Investors pulled a net $40.3 billion out of those funds in the week ended Aug. 10, the largest weekly withdrawal since early October 2008, soon after the collapse of Lehman Brothers."

Equity funds were the biggest losers, as investors shed $30 billion worth of exposure to common stocks.

Adding to the negatives was the July PPI number, at a modest 0.2% increase, though core PPI, which excludes energy and food, was up 0.4%, for an annual run rate of nearly 5 percent on a wholesale level. While oil and gas prices haven't exactly come down to reasonable levels, food prices have stabilized, though the core reading shows inflation showing up in other areas.

Bonds edged higher, with the 10-year dropping six basis points to a yield of 2.16% and the 30-year shedding 9 bips, to yield 3.56%. Investors are still looking to safety over risk, and that was evident today in Treasuries and precious metals.

This little pause in the action will last until the next crisis scenario erupts - about a week or two, maybe - and then equity markets will retest the lows set in place last week. From a technical standpoint, a retest of recent lows is almost always warranted before a move higher, so, down we must go in short order.

Dow 11,410.21, +4.28 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,511.48, -11.97 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,193.88, +1.12 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite 7,418.94, +24.45 (0.33%)


Advancers led decliners on the day, though the NASDAQ saw more losers than winners. Overall, the gainers were 3624, to 2909 on the downside. New highs numbered only eight (8), with 58 new lows. The NYSE was nearly evenly split, with 13 new highs and 14 new lows. The combined total of 21 new highs and 72 new lows reinforces the indication for stocks to eventually recede.

Volume was back to moribund levels, as investors have headed for the hills.

NASDAQ Volume 1,919,593,000
NYSE Volume 4,351,417,000


WTI crude oil priced 93 cents higher, at $87.58, despite a government report that showed a significant surplus of the slimy stuff in the most recent week. Gold stopped at another new record of $1,793.80 per ounce, up $8.80 on the day and silver went happily along, picking up 53 cents, to $40.35 the ounce.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Euro Fears Still Making Markets Shaky

As today's post title suggests, trading continues to focus on events - or the relative lack thereof - in Europe, where today French President Nicolas Zarkozy met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, announcing some coordination of efforts, but fell short of endorsing the concept of Eurobonds to shore up shaky finances on the Continent.

"We want to express our absolute will to defend the euro and assume Germany and France's particular responsibilities in Europe," said Sarkozy.

In what has to be the most humorous statement to date concerning sovereign fiscal policies, the two leaders said they would push for balanced budget amendments for all 17 nations which use the Euro as their primary currency. The irony is that, excepting possibly Germany, none of the member nations have had a balanced budget in at least five years, most of them running continuous deficits since the Euro became the continental currency in 2000.

The specific proposals coming from the leaders of the two most powerful members of the Europen Union were slim. They said their finance ministers would meet four times a year and proposed that the member nations coordinate income tax policy and begin taxing financial transactions by 2013, kicking the proverbial can a bit further down the road to perdition.

By the time the two leaders met with the press, European markets had already closed, so the brunt of the effect from their statements was felt primarily in the US.

Stocks took a nose dive after the press conference, and fell to their lowest levels of the day just after 1:00 pm EDT. The Dow was off by 190 points at its bottom.

But, as usual, the mechanics of controlled markets took over, as all the major indices rallied for the final three hours, still closing down for the day, but with reasonable losses.

Stocks had gotten off to a shaky start, after economic data was mixed prior to the opening bell. July housing starts fell off to 604,000 on an annualized rate, after posting a figure of 613,000 in June. Building permits dropped by 20,000 from the annualized rate of 617,000 in June.

However, industrial production came in with a better-than-expected gain of 0.9% and capacity utilization also showed a bit of strength, with a reading of 77.5%, following a 76.9 figure in June. Of course, these are estimates prepared by an inept and failing government and should not be trusted as any true guide to financial conditions in the United States, even though they remain mired in the minds of traders and fund managers as the most reliable gauges.

Without any determinant structure of reform or policy coming from Europe, expect this see-saw battle of bulls and bears to rage on for weeks until something concrete cracks across the pond. There seems to be about the same level of political will over there as there is in the US to entertain policies that actually address structural issues in the economy - none - as the leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are easily more enthusiastic about getting re-elected than they are at doing their jobs well.

With the majority of the politicians on vacation this month (the NY Times reports that 80 members of the house of representatives have or will be visiting Israel this month) our political class appears quite cavalier when called on to solve pressing problems.

Until there is real political leadership (in other words, we better hope we make it to November, 2012 and then elect Ron Paul as our next president) markets will continue to stumble along and economies will continue to run up debt and deteriorate.

That's how it goes. Prepare.

Dow 11,405.93, -76.97 (0.67%)
NASDAQ 2,523.45, -31.75 (1.24%)
S&P 500 1,192.76, -11.73 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 7,394.49, -88.22 (1.18%)


Declining issues got the better of advancers on the day, 4939-1664. On the NASDAQ, there were six (6) new highs, but 51 new lows. The NYSE showed 10 new highs and 15 new lows, keeping the bias to the downside, with the combined figure of 16 new highs and 66 new lows. Expect the gap between the few new highs and increasing new lows to expand as the crisis nobody wants to handle grows even deeper.

Volume was moderate, which, after the events of last week, shows a general lack of interest overall in staking out any new, long term positions.

NASDAQ Volume 2,085,979,250
NYSE Volume 5,009,345,000


Oil closed down $1.23, to $86.65, though gas prices at filling stations across the country have seen hardly any price decline at all.

The continued unease over macro-economic issues produced a renewed push into gold, which traded higher by $27.00, to $1,785.00, a new closing record, while silver also gained, finishing up 51 cents, at $39.82, though it traded above $40/ounce both earlier in the day and after equity markets had closed.

Tomorrow brings PPI numbers for July, the Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Index and a reading on crude oil inventories. Other than that, bonds look very good, as they continue to hold near low levels, but remain one of the primary safety plays.

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Monday, August 15, 2011

40 Years After Nixon Killed the Gold Standard, The Great Sucker Rally of 2011

Those savvy traders who toil at their computer screens, doping out the finest of five-minute investments, went at the markets today like the economy was in the midst of a major boom, sending the Dow up by more than 200 points and all major indices back to levels prior to the careening downshift from August 4th.

Like it never even happened...

Like there's no debt crisis in Europe. Like the US debt to GDP ratio isn't close enough to 100%. Like the unemployment rate isn't 9.2% (really, upwards of 17%).

Supposedly, according to experts at these kinds of things, this is what the Fed was saying when it pegged federal funds rates at zero percent last Tuesday - that treasuries and savings were for fools and that the only way to make money was to invest in risky assets, like stocks.

It just so happens that today is the 40th anniversary of then-President Nixon closing the gold window, and setting global economies off on a fiat money adventure, wherein currencies are backed by nothing but "good faith and credit" of sovereigns, and nothing more. Whatever hell in which Richard M. Nixon is currently residing, one hopes that the flames are hot enough to toast his dead bones to a crisp, because, more than anything else, taking the US - and thus, the world's reserve currency, and thus, all other currencies - off the gold standard in 1971 has created the gross inequalities in income levels and the bankster/crook/casino mentality that pervades capital markets today.

Nixon destroyed the concept of sound money and replaced it with a world of volatile, floating currencies, mountains of debt and middle class wage slavery. If anyone asks who caused the great collapse of currencies and the three-year financial mess that the world is currently embroiled in, tell them, "Nixon did it," because he started it all (and maybe, when people wake up to reality, they'll elect Ron Paul president to undo it).

Traders (not investors) took to the market like hungry wolves right out of the gate, ignoring the August Empire State Manufacturing Index, which delivered the third straight month of negative readings, coming in at -7.7, an hour prior to the opening bell. It was the third straight month the index came in below zero, which indicates that the economy of NY state has been contracting since May.

Well, it's just one state, like Greece, and Italy, and Portugal and France, are each just one country. But, if New York is contracting, you can bet other states are doing similar, or just barely expanding. Besides, New York is one of the biggest states, by population, 4th in the US.

No problem. Just move along, the government will fix all the bad economic data that's coming out this week, including industrial production, capacity utilization, new and existing home sales, PPI and CPI. Besides, Ben Bernanke has made it very clear that the only place to put your money to work is in equities (oh, and oil), not bonds, or gold or silver.

As CNBC's chief cheerleader, Jim Cramer, would say, BUY, BUY, BUY.

Dow 11,482.90, +213.88 (1.90%)
NASDAQ 2,555.20, +47.22 (1.88%)
S&P 500 1,204.49, +25.68 (2.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,482.71, +178.83 (2.45%)


Stock winners beat losers by a count of 5737-970, in a broad-based beat-down. On the NASDAQ, new lows continued to outnumber new highs, 49-14. The opposite was true on the NYSE, with 11 new highs and just six (6) new lows. The combined total of 25 new highs and 55 new lows, still retains a modest downside bias.

Volume returned to more pedestrian levels after the ridiculous wind and unwind of the previous seven sessions.

NASDAQ Volume 1,915,922,250
NYSE Volume 4,952,016,500


Oil caught a bid, gaining $2.50, to $87.88. With any luck, the speculators and oil barons controlling the futures markets will have it back to $100/barrel by Labor Day. In case nobody's noticed, even though oil is well off it's highs around $100 just three weeks ago, prices at the pump have barely budged. The oil companies say that's because the gasoline already delivered was bought at a higher price and has to be sold at a higher price. When that runs out, and gas can be bought lower, then prices will come down.

Yeah, sure. AAA reports the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular at $3.594 per gallon, down about a nickel from July 22nd, when oil began to slide.

Gold and silver suppression schemes seem to be running out of fuel, however. Gold gained $15.40, to $1,758.00, while silver was up 19 cents, at $39.31.

On Tuesday, a slew of data hits the street, though it will mostly be ignored since there is no other way to make money than by buying stocks.

Finally, below is a video (ain't technology great?) of Richard Nixon forty years ago today, dissembling, in his own beautiful, self-destructive way, in front of the entire world. Enjoy.