Rally Fades After Euro Rift is Exposed; Prepare for Third Quarter Earnings Bloodbath

US markets for equities and commodities have been held captive for the better part of the past three years - by high frequency traders, insiders with more knowledge (and money) than the general public, uninterrupted meddling by the PPT or other quasi-government agencies, but mostly, for the past nine to twelve months, by news from the Euro-zone.

It seems like every day there is a different story coming out of Europe concerning the debts of various nations and how the ECB, EIB, EFSF or any of a multitude of alphabet-soup acronyms react and intend to dispose of or attempt to solve the problem of the day. Today was no different as a late-session story from the Financial Times killed off a perfectly good short-covering, end of month window dressing rally inspired by absolutely nothing.

Stocks had been rolling along after a massive gap-up at the open, with the Dow ahead by as many as 325 points, but everything did an abrupt about-face when news erupted from Europe around 3:00 pm EDT over a rift between the nations aligned to bail out Greece - again.

According to the Wall Street Journal's story:

Stocks pared gains in the final trading hour after the Financial Times reported a split has opened in the eurozone over the terms of Greece's second bailout package. As many as seven of the bloc's 17 members are arguing for private creditors to swallow a bigger writedown on their Greek bond holdings, the FT said, citing senior European officials.

That was enough to finish off all the naked enthusiasm for the day and send stocks reeling into reverse. Though the averages finished the day with healthy gains, the froth at the top - and middle - were blown off by one story concerning something everybody already knows is a financial disaster, the continuing struggle over whether Greece should be allowed to fail or, by keeping it afloat, potentially take down the entire EU and maybe the rest of the global economy with it. The central banking powers and politicians around the globe are about at wit's end over the crisis in Europe, and are seemingly capable of saying or doing just about anything to stave off the eventual collapse of the Euro as a viable currency.

Sadly, for them and for the rest of us, eventualities do occur despite the best efforts of bright people to change the course of reality. It's so obvious to everyone now that Greece has to go, and soon, and they will take down untold numbers of European-based banks and spread the default contagion far and wide. Welcome to the 2008 redux.

For those who make a living trading, this environment is conducive to massive profits if one is nimble, smart and engaged, though at the end of the day all the swaps, hedges and protection aren't going to matter one whit when the financial tsunami crests upon first Greece's pristine shores and continues along the Mediterranean to Italy, Spain and Portugal. Once it races through the Straits of Gibraltar, all nations will be at risk, though the most isolated may be the best-insured. Countries out of the way, like Russia, India, Indonesia and Canada, may be spared the brunt of the blows, though general commerce will be affected globally.

It's coming. Everybody knows it. Most are in denial. That's how we get miracle rallies out of the blue and smashing declines on real news.

What to watch for are waves of large bankruptcies, like that of Saab, recently, sure to be followed by smaller suppliers and next by maybe a Chrysler or General Motors, which has traded below its IPO price for a solid six months after being bailout out by the US taxpayer. Nobody is buying new cars, and they're especially steering clear of GM (aka Government Motors) models. We are in the final stages of financial collapse, the first wave coming in 2008 and truncated by massive capital injections by the Federal Reserve, other central banks and governments from Paris to Beijing.

The financial paradigm of debt-issued money being created out of thin air, fractional reserve banking and crony capitalism has been broken and will soon find itself in complete and utter chaos. Events such as today's turnaround on Wall Street serve as apt reminders that the system is broken beyond human repair. It will take an act of God or an invasion from outer space to fix the mess and neither of those potentialities are on the horizon.

Adding insult to injury, analyst Meredith Whitney cut her third quarter earnings estimates on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley late in the day. Whitney, a highly-respected banking analyst, cut Goldman Sachs (GS) from 3.39 per share to a mere 31 cents, a 90% haircut. Morgan Stanley (MS) was cut from 53 cents to 28, so it would be best to be prepared for a third quarter earnings bloodbath, not only for banking stocks, but for a host of other well-known names. Results from the previous quarter and year-ago will be hard to match for many firms, with the 4th quarter looking even more devilish.

Dow 11,190.69, +146.83 (1.33%)
NASDAQ 2,546.83, +30.14 (1.20%)
S&P 500 1,175.38, +12.43 (1.07%)
NYSE Composite 7,043.12, +102.31 (1.47%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,109,385,500
NYSE Volume 5,515,045,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5195-1451
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 37-102
WTI crude oil: 84.45, +4.21
Gold: 1,652.50, +57.70
Silver: 31.54, +1.56

Nothing Has Changed Except Prices of Stocks; Silver, Gold Still Being Punished

The start of the week was another one of those sessions that made little sense in the grand theme of things, unless you're one of those poor, misled types who believe the Fed and central bankers are working for your benefit, not their own, and can magically pull rainbow-belching unicorns from their nether parts.

The rest of us just marvel at the machinations of the market amid the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression and laugh or cry, depending on our moods and personal situations.

Volatility is the trader's friend, but an investor's nightmare. Stocks jumping around, up and down, without regard to fundamentals - exactly what's been happening in US equity markets since mid-July - does not make for a friendly investment environment. Your money is just as easily chewed up whether you are long or short. Only the best investors, or those with inside knowledge, like our hedge fund and banking friends running the computer algos on Wall Street, will survive. The small investor literally has no chance of turning trades into profits as the deck is stacked against him or her by the big money players.

So, we watch and wait for Europe to implode, the US government to shut down, or the massive federal debt to either be defaulted upon or paid off (yeah, that's a good one!). Sooner or later, all the debt will bury all the assets of stocks and investors will be left with worthless paper. Or it won't. One never knows what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, President Obama or the insipid, asinine congress will do next, but one thing's for sure, if it's the congress or the president, it's not likely to amount to anything, and even Bernanke's magic touch seems to be a little less deft these days. Confidence is what makes markets, and almost all confidence has been destroyed by decades of borrowing and spending without control, lying to the American people (it happens in Europe, Japan and China too) about the state of the economy while the ringleaders of the criminal banking cartel walk freely.

One item from the weekend was interesting. It seems the Federal Reserve has put out a RFP for a Social Media monitoring system. This is nothing less than an attempt to quell negative public opinion (maybe they can start with Rep. Ron Paul) about the workings and dealings of the Fed. Since the Fed is a private bank, their snooping and interloping is pretty scary stuff, considering they are running the ship that creates monetary policy for the US, and, to a degree, the entire planet. You can read the RFP here.

From the Salon article linked above:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York has issued a "Request for Proposal" to suppliers who may be interested in participating in the development of a "Sentiment Analysis And Social Media Monitoring Solution". In other words, the Federal Reserve wants to develop a highly sophisticated system that will gather everything that you and I say about the Federal Reserve on the Internet and that will analyze what our feelings about the Fed are. Obviously, any "positive" feelings about the Fed would not be a problem. What they really want to do is to gather information on everyone that views the Federal Reserve negatively. It is unclear how they plan to use this information once they have it, but considering how many alternative media sources have been shut down lately, this is obviously a very troubling sign.

Are you worried? You shouldn't be, so long as you say nice things about the Fed, like, "they're the greatest central bankers ever!"

See, not so bad.


Dow 11,043.86, +272.38 (2.53%)
NASDAQ 2,516.69, +33.46 (1.35%)
S&P 500 1,162.95, +26.52 (2.33%)
NYSE Composite 6,940.81, +170.08 (2.51%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,018,322,875
NYSE Volume 4,553,576,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3898-1762
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 16-431
WTI crude oil: 80.24, +0.39
Gold: 1623.50, -33.70
Silver: 30.73, -0.20

Note that the New highs - new lows are still screaming "SELL" every day. We are in a trough and the stocks can't seem to get out of this range. The best guess is that the next move is down and into bear market territory, at least that's what "old reliable" new high - new low data is saying.

The precious metals were shoved all over the map again today. In Thailand, the silver futures exchange was shut down via a circuit breaker when the metal traded down more than 10% in the opening minutes. The CME announced higher margin requirements on both metals. Odd, because they are already down so much over the past week. This is the global banking cartel at its worst.

Precious Metals Mayhem; Gold Down $100; Silver Slammed

There are plenty of theories on what took place in precious metals markets over the past few days, but the best possible explanations really don't hold up to closer scrutiny.

Some say that there were margin calls in stocks and that traders trundled out of gold and silver, though that would not explain why the biggest hits were today, unless there were some overnight desperation calls.

Others suggest that this is all a coup by central banks in anticipation of a major monetary event, such as a Greek default or a major Euro-zone banking collapse, or possibly even the shutdown of the US government, which, if our nitwit congress-people have it in their power (and they do) may just occur as early as October 1 (nice that it falls on a weekend, too).

That maybe makes more sense, as anyone with half an interest in current geopolitics knows the central banks are working in a coordinated fashion these days, knowing that the time left for successful fiat money may be measured in days or months, no longer in years. With the Fed turning 100 in 2013, that would seem a fitting date to implode the entire global ponzi fractional reserve scheme, smack dab in the first year of a new president's term.

Of course, there is still the famous short silver position of the fabled Blythe Masters of JP Morgan, which could explain quite a bit, especially in terms of the solvency of that fine financial institution, in particular.

Whatever the case, haters of real money are having a field day, supposedly impressed that gold has fallen back to levels last seen at... hmm, the beginning of August (yes, less than two months ago) and silver is currently where it was at the start of 2011. These short-sighted individuals should bear in mind that all of the major indices of US stocks are BELOW where they began the year.

The public lovers and hoarders of silver and gold have been making "back up the truck" references all day long, seeing this latest price movement as either a liquidity or solvency event and are prepared to scale in buying at these levels while hoping the price foes even lower. With them, there is overall agreement that whatever is causing the price of the precious metals to shudder over the past 48 hours has more to do with the sustainability of current political and monetary factions rather then the intrinsic values of two metals which have stood the test of time as currencies for the past 5000 years.

Whatever the cause, it should be seen as a buying opportunity, with caution to purchase only physical metal, not ETFs or mining stocks, and to scale in according to your risk perspective. With the weekend on hand, prices should firm up in a few short hours, and the metals are currently well off the lows of the day, when gold was down my more than $100 briefly and silver had printed - for a short time - at a $29-and-change handle.

That was where all the action was today. Stocks were essentially flat, which is something of a surprise, following a day-and-a-half of vicious selling pressure.

A good idea would be to head to your local precious metal outpost and make the best deal you can on gold or silver, bars or coins, take your pick, because there is going to be a break between the paper prices of the EFTs and the physical market, which is splintered amongst thousands of coin and bullion dealers scattered around the globe. The CFTC has done nothing to protect PM investors from raids like these, allowing big outfits (like HSBC, JPM and central banks) to run naked shorts in violation of position limits without so much as a quiet "no, no." And, when the fiat currency regime ends, as have all paper currencies backed by nothing but "trust" which has now been broken a thousand times over, gold and silver will re-emerge as "real" money.

Precious metals prices may go even lower in a deflationary environment, but, as the central banks engage in more easing, money printing and currency debasement, gold and silver will take on their own lives as legitimate currencies and soar in value. Any way you look at it, this is a godsend for anyone underinvested in precious metals, because, unlike stocks, currencies or bonds, they are not debt-based instruments and there is no counter-party risk.

God Bless Ron Paul!

Happy Friday!

Dow 10,771.48, +37.65 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 2,483.23, +27.56 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,136.43, +6.87 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite 6,770.73, +44.11 (0.66%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,987,216,125.00
NYSE Volume 5,639,933,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4195-2340
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 11-477
WTI crude oil: 79.85, -0.66
Gold: 1655.00, -81.50
Silver: 31.15, -4.69

Market Crash Alert... Oops, Too Late, Dow Drops 391 Points

Editor's note: Switching over to first person singular tense for today, as it seems to work when I'm happy and the market is not. Some may be confused as to why I'd be happy over a market crash. That will be explained below.

The Markets

Today was another one of those doozies that come along... well, about once a week these days and I really wanted to issue a crash alert yesterday after the close, but didn't, even though I was alarmed over the number of new lows in relation to new highs. Anybody who reads this blog on a semi-regular basis (that's you, Dan K.) would know that the new lows - new highs is my favorite - and highly reliable - sentiment and direction indicator and it was flashing red at the end of the day on Wednesday.

Sure enough, Thursday turned into an all-out rout for equities on significantly higher volume, to say nothing of what happened to gold and silver (well, you can't have everything). Asian markets started the ball rolling downhill, with losses between 2 and 4%, then Europe kicked in with average losses of about 4.5% on the various exchanges.. The US declines were tempered by the usual late-day rally, in this case taking the Dow up about 130 points off the lows of the day, set at about 3:20 pm EDT.

The catalysts for the sell-off were various, but by no means, exclusive. Most market commentaries are blaming the Fed for their squeamish "Operation Twist" maneuver, which, upon further inspection, is a worse program than originally thought when we noticed this statement from yesterday's FOMC release:

To help support conditions in mortgage markets, the Committee will now reinvest principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed is becoming the buyer of last resort for toxic and other MBS, the Wall Street concoctions which started the whole financial contagion back in 2007. We wish them well with their purchases, especially since housing is about to embark on another 10-15% price decline over the next year to two years. The conditions for residential real estate have not changed much materially in three years, and, despite some cheerleading headlines, prices continue to slide and will until the entire mess is wiped from the books of our favorite zombie banks, which, if the Fed and the banks have their ways, will be never.

The more telling stories came out of China and Europe. China's PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the month was 49.4, down from 49.9 in August. In Europe, the PMI dropped to its weakest level since July 2009 with a reading of 50.8. Anything under 50 indicates contraction, so the Chinese are already moderately contracting (read: recession), while Europe is right on the cusp. Their PMI's are at levels very similar to those in the US.

Speaking of the banks, the biggest of them, the TBTF types, took more body blows on the day. Our personal favorite, Bank of America (BAC) sold down to 6.04 at the close, making Warren Buffett's $5 billion investment look pretty stupid, along with the warrants to buy to up 750,000 shares for $7.14. Mr. Buffett used to be one of the wisest investors of all time, but after investing $5 billion in Goldman Sachs - also with similar underwater warrants - and now BAC, he seems to have lost the Midas touch. Of course, Mr. Buffett normally makes better investments than the ones he has been forced into by President Obama.

So, stocks are down big again, and closing in on bear market territory, and the future looks pretty grim. Those of you still putting your money into a retirement fund or IRA, having not heeded my advice from August of 2007 (you can check) when I advised to cash out, take the penalty hit and move on, are probably looking at a 20% loss over the past two months. That is more than the usual early withdrawal penalty, so, sure, you made some dough in 2009 and 2010, but you're about to be giving it back now.

There seems to be little left for stocks to do but go down, so long as the following conditions exist (see if you can find a positive catalyst in this list):

• US banks have been recapitalized since the collapse of 2008, but are still not lending and still are holding scads of bad loans both on and off their books, plus some have significant exposure to Europe - notably Morgan Stanley (MS) which is set to implode on the first whiff of a Greek default.
• Unemployment is officially at 9.2% and heading higher, though the real number is somewhere North of 17% and there doesn't seem to be much of a rush in Congress to pass comprehensive tax reform or jobs program.
• Congress, the President and the leaders of most of the nations of the world are blithering idiots, a fact made worse by the level of inbreeding among the elite class of society.
• Foreclosures are on the rise again, and the glut of homes on the market remains at or near record high levels.
• There is oversupply in just about everything, from gas and oil to houses to computers to automobiles. Prices are being or will be forced down in nearly every consumer class.
• Banks are still reluctant to lend to anyone except the biggest and most secure individuals and companies, leaving little room for start-ups and small businesses, the real drivers of job growth.
• Europe has more problems than one can imagine. The Germans are upset over having to guarantee such a large portion of the Greek bailout, now on its second time to the trough, with Italy, Spain and Portugal waiting in the wings.
• The federal government will continue to run deficits of over a trillion dollars per year for at least two more years.
• State and local governments are just now catching up to the private sector, laying off thousands of employees a month.
• The US poverty rate is at an all time high.
• The number of people receiving food stamps is at an all time high and still rising.
• Did I mention the people in congress and the president are nitwits?

All of this sounds pretty gloomy, like a coming recession and a deflationary depression on the front burner, but there is hope, and that hope explains why I cheer when stocks look like they're about to crash (when they actually do crash, I really start to party!). The reason for this is pretty obvious from my perspective. I've been pretty much out of stocks since August of 2007, and completely out since the fall of 2009. There's too much risk involved for my simple tastes.

I'm also an independent businessman who fights red tape and higher prices constantly in order to keep the doors open. It's a struggle, but, as I say, it beats working for a living.

When the deflation and depression become full-blown, there's a very real possibility that the banksters and politicians will be eating each other's lunches, and I suspect there is some of that going on already. The public backlash against the kleptocracy of fractional reserve banking and ridiculous levels of taxation (like the 15% Social Security tax ponzi scheme) will be ferocious and many of the people in power will be knocked from their perches.

In a deflationary environment, cash and specialized skills will become more valuable. So too, gold and silver, we hope. Oil will - must - go lower, and along with it, gas, meaning more money in everyone's pocket to spend on other things than just basic transportation. Prices and wages will return to more manageable levels and business will eventually boom. It's all relative. If you're making $50,000 a year and you get cut down to $30,000, if prices have declined by 40% in general, it's a wash.

So, yes, I firmly believe that bank failures and a stock market crash will eventually result in a stronger, better-balanced economy, after a lot of pain and suffering, of course, but nothing good has ever come from anything earned without commensurate sacrifice.

(Oh, and I almost forgot, minus signs are easier to type than plus signs - no shift key required.)

Dow 10,733.83, -391.01 (3.51%)
NASDAQ 2,455.67, -82.52 (3.25%)
S&P 500 1,129.56, -37.20 (3.19%)
NYSE Composite 6,726.62, -254.71 (3.65%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,928,526,750
NYSE Volume 7,893,035,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 928-5812
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New Lows: 10-1385 (yes, you're reading that right)
WTI crude oil: 80.51, -5.41 (yippie!)
Gold: 1737.70, -45.20
Silver: 35.85, -3.84 (buying opportunity)

Quick note on silver. I believe it will go lower, possibly materially lower, as no true support for anything exists in a deflationary environment, of which we are clearly entering. Silver could crash all the way back to the mid-20s, depending on the severity of the overall global crash, so I would advise scaling in at this bargain point, and using dollar cost averaging to keep your basis reasonable. Eventually, silver should top out at well over $100, possibly even more, especially of much of the world finds the wisdom to return to real money.

Stocks Sell Off after Bernanke, Fed Disappoint Wall Street

The Markets

The entire process of Central Bank watching and anticipation is just so ludicrous, especially when a central bank such as the Federal Reserve overtly telegraphs most of their moves well in advance.

The secrecy, the waiting and then the immediate market reaction is simply so annoying, one would almost hope that the process and the players be done away with, once and for all. That sentiment is, in fact, what would happen under a monetary system operating under a gold standard. There would be little need for the Federal Reserve and much less attention paid to their arcane machinations. However, since the United States has been officially off a gold standard since 1971 and under the thumb of the debt-crazed Fed since 1913, hope for change any time soon is slim, though under a monetary breakdown, much like the one begun in 2008 that hasn't yet been resolved, possibilities exist.

After tow days of meeting, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve finally came out today, shortly after 2:00 pm EDT, with another one of their insipid statements, outlining their plans to "save the world" from financial ruin. while some on Wall Street hoped for a resumption of some kind of quantitative easing, what the Fed delivered was not unexpected and something of a disappointment to the money-hoarding bankster types populating lower Manhattan.

In additions to keeping the federal funds rate at ZERO, the Fed announced plans to sell $400 billion of its shorter-term Treasuries to buy longer-term Treasuries through June 2012 in a plan based on a failed 1960's plan known as "Operation Twist," the effect of which will be to bring down longer-dated interest rates. If successful, the program will flatten the yield curve, with short-term rates already well below historical norms, and longer term rates down, but with more room to decline. The economic effect ought to be limited or nearly invisible, which is what sent the Wall Street bears into selling mode after the announcement.

Stocks had hovered around the flat line in anticipation of the announcement and sold off sharply on strong volume afterwards and into the close. All of the major indices finished at or near their lows of the day all but wiping out the gains from last week's phantom, options-induced rally.

Stocks continue to be a very unsound and unsafe choice for investors.

The bond market reaction was swift and decisive, with two-and-three-year bill yields rising and longer-dated bonds, the 10-and-30-year maturities collapsing. The 10-year closed out the day with a yield of 1.85% and the 30-year at 3.01%.

Dow 11,124.84, -283.82 (2.49%)
NASDAQ 2,538.19, -52.05 (2.01%)
S&P 500 1,166.76, -35.33 (2.94%)
NYSE Composite 6,981.33, -236.19 (3.27%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,180,005,500
NYSE Volume 5,446,355,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1135-5427
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 26-562 (OUCH!)
WTI crude oil: 84.76, -2.16
Gold: 1782.10, -22.70
Silver: 39.69, -0.05


A couple of items caught our attention today. One was an excellent summary of decades of manipulation in the price of gold by Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer, Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) at the 18th CLSA Investors' Forum, Grand Hyatt Hotel in Hong Kong.

For pure emotion and unbridled rage that captures the pent-up feelings of millions of middle and lower-class Americans, nothing beats the Best of walstreetpro2 (greatest f---ing hits) - 3 of 3 Warning: the video cntains great amounts of vulgarity, adult language, truth about the US economy and the destruction of many consumer goods. All in all, a classic.