Thursday, October 13, 2011

Harrisburg, PA Bankrupt, Max Keiser, Angela Merkel, Nicolas Zarkozy, Switzerland WIR, Google Earnings

Stocks vacillated today somewhat like they're supposed to in normal times, though these are no normal times in which we are living. Tape-watching in the age of high frequency trading and intellectual dispiritedness has an intoxicating allure and can become addictive.

Sparing the details, stocks were lower in the morning and staged a half-hearted rally on low volume in the afternoon. Sound familiar? Yes, computers. Kind of just going with the flow, or lack thereof. These last two days of trading could also be interpreted as outward manifestations of the liquidity, solvency and currency confidence crises as various macro sectors of the global economy grind inexorably toward a perceived halt, the term "perceived" included to indicate that markets are not entirely frozen, that there is always some urchin of trade lurching about, no matter how unwieldy the underlying system.

A few news items:
From Wednesday: City of Harrisburg, PA, capitol of Pennsylvania, declares bankruptcy. This is a sad, though poignant story of our times. A city of 46,000 with about $500 million worth of bad debt, or, debt that won't be repaid. Will there be a follow-on effect? Actually, there has to be and the situation is fluid, with the state trying to tell the Harrisburg City Council that they cannot declare bankruptcy. But they did, anyway...

Google Earnings (after the bell, today) - nice, 26% profit increase and other nice metrics. They're rocking, but for search, Bing is better.

Also after the bell, Fitch puts Barclays Bank plc, BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse AG, Deutsche Bank AG, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale on Rating Watch Negative. At the same time, Fitch has placed the short-term IDRs of four of the banks on Rating Watch Negative.

Dow 11,478.13, -40.72 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 2,620.24, +15.51 (0.60%)
S&P 500 1,203.66, -3.59 (0.30%)
NYSE Composite 7,229.08, -34.61 (0.48%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,683,142,125
NYSE Volume 4,397,526,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2755-3644
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 20-35 (reversal signal)
WTI crude oil: 84.23, -1.34
Gold: 1,668.50, -14.10
Silver: 31.67, -1.12


I love it when a plan comes together and the clip of the Kaiser Report below fits like a favorite pair of jeans. Plenty from which to watch, enjoy and learn.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Market Melt-up Continues for US Stocks

News from Europe that the Slovakian government would re-vote on extending additional bailout funds to banks via the ESFS was like a sugar-coated treat to the childish cretins of the Wall Street investment community.

Shortly after the close of markets in the US yesterday, the Slovakian parliament became the only one of 17 countries to turn down the additional relief package proposal, sending shock waves throughout the EU and the rest of the financial universe. The package needed the approval of all members. Within minutes, however, there was talk of a deal on a re-vote, paving the way for a steady flow of funds to repair badly-damaged and close to insolvent European banks which have bourn the brunt of rolling bailouts to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and soon, Spain and Italy.

There was widespread optimism that the Slovak parliament would rework the proposal to fit their agenda and save Europe from imminent collapse. As has been the case for so long with all things Euro-related, the overseeing body of the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank (ECB), a slight shift or change in the rules always seems to be the tonic whereby the Euro remains a "viable" currency and staves off the collapse, first, of Greece, and eventually the entire structure upon which the Euro currency is based.

With such confidence that European leaders would tread along the same path upon which the US staved off financial armageddon in 2008 after the Lehman Bros. bankruptcy, stocks were sent higher throughout the session, assured that the classic Ponzi scheme of international finance has finally gone global.

Along that line of thinking, John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management, said, in an interview with King World News, that stocks could decline by 40% if the European crisis turns into a repeat of 2008, and added, "I think investors have to be aware of the degree of manipulation in all of the markets here and not make the mistake of being momentum players. They shouldn’t just try to go with what is working and jump on board because a lot of this is manufactured for the sake of appearances."

Exactly. Global leaders don't want to see another major disruption like that of 2008, because their main concern is holding onto the reins of power they have secured, even if it means lying about where money is coming from, going to, bank balance sheets, stress tests and just about everything else if it means they get to keep their high posts.

While banks and the people who run them are most responsible for economic calamities over the past few years, politicians share much of the blame, enabling the ill-conceived schemes of the financial class with endless bailouts, ruses and guarantees while much of the global economy is reduced to a pile of worthless, paper rubble.

There was some late-day selling - a chink in the globalist armor and yet another indication of manipulated markets as there was no move to quiet the rally - and stocks finished with only about half of the gains racked up over the session. For instance, the Dow Jones Industrials were up by 209 points at about 2:30 pm, but closed with a gain of just 102. It pays to be a tape watcher these days, as waves of both buying and selling can occur at any time on any given day, no matter the news.

Only on major company reported earnings after Alcoa kicked off 3Q earnings season with a substantial miss on income Tuesday. PepsiCo (PEP) reported before the open that it had earned 1.31 per share after some one-time items, beating the Street estimates by a penny. The gains were largely attributed to Pepsi's aggressive pricing policy in which the company boosted prices around the world on its popular soft drink and snack brands.

Therein lies the conceit and thinly-veiled deceit of Wall Street. PepsiCo saw margin compression in the quarter, as operating margin narrowed to 16.5 percent from 18 percent a year earlier. Earnings for the giant company - with revenue approaching $18 billion in the quarter - have been mostly flat for the past year. Price increases, workforce reductions, cost-cutting and balance sheet shenanigans are what drives this company these days. Growth is largely the result of internal manipulations, not market share increases. Over the past five years, growth has slowed to a mediocre 5.87% per year, though making even that low level over the past few years has been difficult.

Dow 11,518.85, +102.55 (0.90%)
NASDAQ 2,604.73, +21.70 (0.84%)
S&P 500 1,207.25, +11.71 (0.98%)
NYSE Composite 7,263.69, +102.43 (1.43%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,998,280,250
NYSE Volume 5,355,361,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5250-1511
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 41-35 (a reversal, which should not last)
WTI crude oil: 85.57, -0.24
Gold: 1,682.60, +21.60
Silver: 32.79, +0.79

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Dow Five Day Rally Ends; Alcoa Misses 3Q Earnings

From the first indication given by Alcoa (AA) after the bell on Tuesday, this earnings season may not be in investors' best interests.

The world's largest manufacturer of aluminum products reported earnings per share of 15 cents, on analyst expectations of 22 cents per share. Revenue was above estimates, at $6.42 billion on estimates of $6.22 billion, but higher costs and some sluggish sectors crimped income down to $172 million for the quarter.

Chairman and CEO Klaus Kleinfeld made a couple of interesting comments regarding the quarter's results on CNBC, shortly after the data release. Kleinfeld said that "fear is taking a toll," noting the overwhelming sentiment that investors were wary of the crisis in Europe and a potential global recession and noted that Alcoa was a "competent company in a very nervous world.

The stock was being hammered lower in after-hours trading, down

After Monday's huge upside rally, markets seemed hesitant on Tuesday, and stocks traded in choppy, range-bound fashion. The Dow moved less than 80 points from the lows to the highs on the day.

Another factor keeping trading to a minimum on light volume was the debate in Slovakia on the vote to approve an expanded Eurozone bailout fund. Shortly after markets closed in New York, Slovakian lawmakers on Tuesday rejected participating in an expanded euro rescue fund, significant because the measure needed unanimous approval from all 17 currency members.

With tiny Solvakia standing up against bank bailouts and more depreciation of the Euro against major currencies, the breakup of the Euro seems all but academic at this point. It's become clear over the past few months and years that only the Northern European countries are fiscally balanced and able to cope with market pressures, while those in the South - particularly Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal - do not share the same financial disciple as displayed by say, the Germans.

Without expanded emergency capabilities, European banks will face a liquidity and solvency crisis similar to what happened in the US in the aftermath of the Lehman Bros. collapse and the contagion from it will almost certainly spread globally, though to what degree is as yet unknown.

The Slovakian Parliament decision and Alcoa's big miss on earnings should make for interesting trading on Wednesday in all markets, from Asia to Europe to the US.

Dow 11,416.30, -16.88 (0.15%)
NASDAQ 2,583.03, +16.98 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,195.54, +0.65 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,161.26, -12.19 (0.17%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,684,082,875
NYSE Volume 4,318,042,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3717-2705
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 37-60
WTI crude oil: 85.81, +0.40
Gold: 1,661.00, -9.80
Silver: 32.00, +0.02

Friday, October 7, 2011

Wall Street is a Crooked, Rotten, Rigged Casino

Just to keep everybody on their toes, the criminals running the Wall Street Casino sold off stocks at the end of the day.

The only real news - if one can call data from the horribly inefficient BLS "real" - was the September non-farm payroll report, showing a gain of 103K for the month. August was revised upward, from zero to 57,000 new jobs. Yeah, sure.

There's so much noise in this market, let's just leave it there. Maybe it will die and rot away over the Columbus day weekend.

Have a nice weekend. Go, Cardinals!

Dow 11,103.12, -20.21 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 2,479.35, -27.47 (1.10%)
S&P 500 1,155.46, -9.51 (0.82%)
NYSE Composite 6,925.80, -71.84 (1.03%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,106,904,500
NYSE Volume 5,434,408,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1866-4649
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 19-89
WTI crude oil: 82.98, +0.39
Gold: 1638.60, -11.70
Silver: 31.10, -0.83

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Last Hour Rally Boost Stocks for Third Straight Session; Occupy Wall Street Legions Growing; Steve Jobs Dead at 56

OK, this is getting a bit ridiculous.

For the third day in a row, stocks staged a final hour ramp-up, this one good for only 100 points on the Dow, but that came after stocks had been given an initial lift-off around 10:00 am, resulting in a nearly 200-point rise on the Dow.

News from the Eurozone was once again scant, as EU ministers and leaders of the nations comprising the EU proved they will not take a back seat to the US President and congress when it comes to foot-dragging and kicking the proverbial economic can down the road.

There was some discussion of "re-capitalization" of the major banks, meaning nothing more than egregious money printing and bailouts for those with the most capital who have not yet learned how to manage it wisely.

Considering the penchant for late-day moves, perhaps the directors of the various exchanges might consider opening the market later in the day, say, 3:00 pm, locking out sellers as the computer algorithms simply ramp up the stocks they like. Being that "banker's hours" are legendarily short as it is, this would give said elite bankers more time to count their profits and have their nails manicured.

It's worth pointing out that the past three day's worth of last hour rallies began off fresh lows, set in place on Tuesday's ripped decline. On that day, the Dow bottomed at 10362.26, a low point not seen since September 9, 2010. The S&P and NASDAQ made similar moves, setting new, 12-month lows before the "Merkel miracle" when German Chancellor Angela Merkel first uttered the word, "re-capitalize." The S&P had already entered official bear market territory, obviously something the power-mad bankers simply could not tolerate.

The legacy of the current short-run rally will depend greatly upon the figures released Friday morning when the BLS issues its monthly non-farm payroll data. Anything over 50,000 new jobs created is certain to be seen as a win for equity holders, though there are no hard and fast estimates that can be trusted after last month's zero reading.

While in the short term, propping up markets - as has been occurring since late 2008 - may seem a noble and prudent activity, the longer-term consequences of unbalancing markets are not well known, although the examples available (Weimar, Zimbabwe, Dutch Tulip Bubble) all seem to have ended very, very badly.

On that note, here's a couple of Wall Street Whiz Guys who think the "new" level to watch is 1070 on the S&P. Listen carefully and you'll hear them advise to buy low and sell lower. Obviously, these guys are fresh escapees from the zoo for unfit hedge fund manglers.

Legendary gold bull, Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital, doesn't think we're headed for a double-dip recession, he believes we're headed straight into "a complete economic collapse." Schiff's entertaining and caustic video can be seen here.

Not to put too fine a point on the doom and gloom aspect, Aftershock author, Robert Wiedemer, opines that we'll see "another meltdown within 2 to 4 years."

Well, Bob, thanks for the warning, though two to four years seems a long time to be waiting for the Apocalypse.

Meanwhile, outside the granite, steel and glass elitist enclaves of the big Wall Street firms, the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement continues to aggravate the paymasters and grow in depth and volume, spreading to over 500 cities and even getting the attention of President Obama during a news conference on Thursday. The corner of Broadway and Wall Street is beginning to resemble Cairo's Tahir Square in many ways.

Dow 11,123.33, +183.38 (1.68%)
NASDAQ 2,506.82, +46.31 (1.88%)
S&P 500 1,164.97, +20.94 (1.83%)
NYSE Composite 6,997.64, +153.48 (2.24%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,263,897,750
NYSE Volume 5,586,015,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5253-1294
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 15-69
WTI crude oil: 82.59, +2.91 (WTF?)
Gold: 1,653.20, +11.60
Silver: 32.00, +1.65


Finally, it is with great regret to report that Apple co-founder Steve Jobs has died at the tender age of 56. In a tribute to Jobs' brilliance, we present the Super Bowl "1984" ad which aired on Super Bowl Sunday, January 22, 1984, during the third quarter of Super Bowl XVIII, heralding the launch of the Macintosh computer that revolutionized computing and our lives in general. Jobs was a thinker and inventor along the lines of Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Edison, a man of such greatness that we will likely not see another like him for decades. It would be remiss not to point out that this blog, and many other online ventures, is run off a seven or eight year old e-Mac, purchased used for $50 more than three years ago and that the Mac PowerBook G3 that was purchased in 1998, is still running strong on system 8.9, and has been operational, without the need for upgrades or any repairs for thirteen years.

People who invent and produce products of such lasting and functional value don't come along too often. Jobs, and his unique understanding of technology and its interaction with people, will be sorely missed.