Friday, May 25, 2012

Markets Close Lower in Advance of 3-Day Weekend

Even with Friday's losses, stocks finished the week marginally higher overall, despite the coninuing, nagging issues plaguing investors from Europe, the foibles of Facebook, and JP Morgan's continuing non-hedge losses, which could end up costing the firm a couple of quarter's worth of earnings.

The Industrials took the bulk of the pain today, as once again, the various indices did not automatically align. Thankfully, it's the start of a three-day weekend, so, to the three of you actually reading this and not out enjoying the Friday afternoon, what the heck is wrong with you?

We'll get back to dissecting the crumbling fiat currency regime on Tuesday, when markets are expected to open. A day may come when they don't, but for now, they still be to be the favored playgrounds of the rich, famous, infamous and criminally insane, and, frankly, they need the work.

Have a great weekend, try not to think about your investments too much (unless they're in gold, silver, real estate or guns and ammo) and enjoy life a bit. It's really not that long a stay each of us have here.

As always, Free Houses for Everyone!

Dow 12,454.83, -74.92 (0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,837.53, -1.85 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,317.82, -2.86 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 7534.33, -18.03 (0.24%)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2819-2711
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 53-69
WTI crude oil: 90.86, +0.20
Gold: 1,568.90, +11.40
Silver: 28.39, +0.23

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Bifurcated Markets a Sure Sign of Trouble In Fantasy Finance Land

It should be pain as the day that there are many issues and headwinds facing financial markets in the current crisis situation. Today's trading, taking bounces up and down in a directionless trading session is yet another indictment of the power players' control - or lack thereof - during a turbulent period.

When markets react in odd ways, as similar ones diverge, correlations break down and generally things zig when they are expected to zag, one index is up while another is down, it's a sign of malaise and weariness, signifying not only trouble in the current time frame, but of more problems to come.

After Wednesday's hockey stick save off the lows on a temporary reversal of sentiment regarding Europe - which was wholly manufactured and false, by the way - in which all the major indices moved in the same direction at the same time, today's sloppiness could be attributed to speculative bets in different sectors, though the possibility that there are diverging opinions driving indices in different directions is palpable.

Even though the day's range - 120 points on the Dow; 32 points on the NASDAQ, the two did not move in anything even remotely resembling synchronicity. The Dow finished to the positive, the NASDAQ ended in the red.

Some may posit that these moves are by design, though that's a bit of a stretch even in this space, in which all conspiracy theories are given ample credit at least for the fact that somebody's paying attention.

In what was one of the least-inspiring trading days of the past two weeks, the best that can be said of today's performance was that it was at least back to the norm of low volume and moves without conviction. Europe has been quieted for the time being (don't worry, that will change), the Facebook IPO malaise is fading from the news cycle and JP Morgan is still losing money on the "London Whale" non-hedge hedge.

Eventually, all of these items and more either get swept under the Wall Street rug of fraud and collusion or explode in the faces of the criminal cartel that traverses the canyons of lower Manhattan as glad-handing gentlemen.

One would suppose that a break in the action might be a good thing, though if one is circumspect enough to check the recent charts of the major indices, one would have to be blind not to notice that the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all trading well below their 50-day moving averages and hovering just above their 200-DMA, a dangerous position. They're also taken off about 50% of the move higher from mid-December to the end of April, a retracement that adherents of Fibonacci will note as an area of support. In that regard, the indices have moved in synchronous fashion, though with their own idiosyncratic tendencies.

Two telling signs from market internals suggest there easily could be more downside in days and weeks to come. The advance-decline line has been negative 12 of the last 17 sessions, while there have been more new lows than new highs for 10 consecutive sessions and on 14 of the last 15 trading days.

This is an interesting time for markets, stuck in no-man's land without the support of earnings, driven by news, events and data flow.

Dow 12,529.75, +33.60 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,839.38, -10.74 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,320.68, -1.82 (0.14%)
NYSE Composite 7,552.35, -11.45 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,737,819,375
NYSE Volume 3,776,796,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3082-2527
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 55-111
WTI crude oil: 90.66, +0.76
Gold: 1,557.50, +9.10
Silver: 28.16, +0.64

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Greece - and Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Spain - Will Exit the Euro Despite Double-Talk from Political Leaders

Despite the dramatic midday turnaround based on a fully orchestrated recantation of yesterday's statement by Lucas Papademos that preparations were being made in Greece for an exit from the Euro, there were few winners besides the informed insiders who knew the former prime minister was going to reverse himself today.

In Europe, the markets reacted as though a catastrophe could not be avoided, with all of the major stock exchanges down sharply, having already closed before the corrective statement by Papademos was released.

Leading the carnage on the continent were Italy and Greece, though the German DAX and French CAC-40 both fell by more than two percent.

Today, in a brief (staged) interview with CNBC's Senior International Correspondent (what a joke) Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Papademoms said there were indeed no preparations underway in Greece for possibly exiting the Euro, in complete contradiction of what he said on Tuesday. Perhaps the man has either a short attention span, difficulty parsing his own words, or a combination of both. In any case, it appears that politicians can speak out of both sides of their mouths, but not exactly at the same moment in time.

This is, of course, what the general public will swallow whole, as the technocratic propaganda machine revved into high gear, staving off - for a time - the inevitable. Anybody with a brian larger than the average goldfish knows that Greece will surely leave the Euro, setting off a chain of events that will likely disintegrate the entire supra-governmental apparatus of the EU, the ECB and the global financial system.

However, for the politicians in charge of maintaining the status quo, events have overtaken them and they are in an all-out panic to keep things under control. Greece's (and to a large degree, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland) continued living on borrowed time and borrowed money is only making conditions within the Eurozone more difficult, especially for the northern states, especially Germany, which is largely footing the bill for the entire escapade into fantasy finance.

The southern states of Europe are already broken, as is the EU, but the control freaks running the show have a schedule to keep, so events and farces such as this will likely occur with more frequency as the entire situation spins out of control. Everything points toward a dissolution of the EU, timed for maximum impact upon the US elections, which are still six months away. The plan is apparently to crater the entire financial system within six weeks of the US presidential elections, just in time to jettison the hopes of the puppet-in-chief, Barack Obama, and prance out the new marionette, Adolph, er, Mitt Romney, who will usher in the end of the American experiment with harsher control over the populace, who are, after all, only bit players.

With leaders who will stop at nothing in their efforts to maintain and wield power over vast populations, one can expect the rising police state that has already manifested itself throughout much of Europe and England to arise fully-formed in the United States.

Events such as those of the last two days, in which a somewhat respected, reliable politician goes off script and promptly reverses himself - and to which the markets respond - are just another stunning example of the kind of control the banks and politicians have over regular people.

There is no longer any trust of elected officials in most of the developed world and it's because they have taken the people's trust, and their rights, and burned them in flames of self-importance and pitiful glory.

Dow 12,496.15, -6.66 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,850.12, +11.04 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,318.86, +2.23 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,540.89, -1.68 (0.02%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,928,258,875
NYSE Volume 4,079,574,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3226-2370
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 34-243
WTI crude oil: 89.90, -1.95
Gold: 1,548.40, -28.80
Silver: 27.52, -0.66

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Stocks Slide Late After More Evidence of Greek Exit from Euro Spooks Markets

The headline really says it all on today's turnaround Tuesday.

With the major averages putting in a nice follow-up to Monday's lift-off, the major indices were set to put in their second winning day in a row. The Dow was sporting a 50-point advance just after 3:00 p EDT when word came out of Greece by former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, saying that preparations for an exit of Greece from the Euro zone are being considered, and said the scope to renegotiate the ongoing EU and IMF loan program would be "very limited."

That's when a 50-point gain became a 50-point loss in a matter of minutes, though all of the major indices recovered to end the session nearly unchanged.

Overnight, this news will likely sink in a little further and it would be expected that Asian and European market would open tomorrow lower. As word of Papademos' statement spread, the worst victim was the Euro, which fell below 1.27 to the dollar on foreign exchanges.

It is fascinating to watch how this entire Greek drama is being played out, especially in reference to market response. As event have unfolded over the past year to 18 months, market reaction has become one of initial knee-jerking, followed by bouts of disbelief and buying into the dips, though as the situation has turned from bad to worse in Greece, stocks seem more inclined to shrug off any bad news, whereas, earlier, like in September of last year, markets took violent, hefty swings on dispatches from the continent.

What will occur in global markets when the Hellenic state is finally on its own again and officially dismissed from the Eurozone - now a 90% chance according to most euro experts - is anybody's guess, though most investors are girding for the worst case, reminiscent of the Lehman breakdown back in '08, though this time around, there's been plenty of time to prepare.

The other major story of the day concerned Facebook, as the NASDAQ continues attempts at cleaning up the mess that they created. Due to technical issues in their electronic trading system, as of Tuesday morning, some investors still had not received confirmation of their trades and the NASDAQ was talking about raising its own loss provision for bad trades from $3 million to $13 million, as trading desks and market makers toll their losses.

It was also revealed today that Morgan Stanley's analysis arm had downgraded the stock just prior to the IPO, another odd and damaging situation, given that Morgan Stanley (MS) was the lead underwriter on the deal. The firm, by law, is supposed to have a "Chinese wall" between analysts and underwriters, but one has to wonder if the firm was shorting the IPO a la Goldman Sachs. The situation will be investigated, though it's highly doubtful that anything will come of it, in as much as the trades were such a convoluted mess one wonders if officials will ever be able to untangle the mess.

Facebook closed the day at 31.00, a full seven points below Friday's IPO price, with a loss of 3.03 (8.90%). Founder and CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, who was supposed to have bankrolled $18 in paper profits on the public opening of the company, may have to just suffer through life with a measly $15 billion.

Yep, life sure is tough.

Dow 12,502.81, -1.67 (0.01%)
NASDAQ 2,839.08, -8.13 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,316.63, +0.64 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,532.32, -10.66 (0.14%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,755,814,375.00
NYSE Volume 4,056,273,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2522-3114
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 45-113
WTI crude oil: 91.66, 0.91
Gold: 1,576.60, -12.10
Silver: 28.18, -0.14

Monday, May 21, 2012

TEOTWAWKI Delayed, No Thanks to G8 Memo

After nearly three weeks of relentless declines, US markets perked up to open the week of trading, posting one of the top five gainers of the year.

Catalyst for the day-long progression higher was nothing other than naked speculation on a "buy the dip" fantasy, as the major indices had been beaten down by roughly 7-8% and many stocks hammered down 10-15& since May 1. Traders saw the opportunity for a bounce and they got what they bargained for, due almost entirely to valuation and little else.

The situation in Europe, especially regarding Greece, remains far from resolution, and the G8 meeting, held over the weekend at Camp David, outside Washington, DC, offered a statement that was long on identifying issues but short on solutions. In fact, the statement released for public consumption carried forty paragraphs, mostly gilded in terminology like the commitment to "take all necessary steps to strengthen and reinvigorate our economies and combat financial stresses," and similar non-committal phrases.

One wonders why such meetings of world leaders are even held except to fete the participants on pate de foie gras and roast pheasant. Ostensibly, such confabs do nothing but solidify ties between the various bankrupt, free-spending governments and boost the general propaganda about the world's financial and political condition. Ostensibly, these G8, G10, G20 and Gee, I don't know soirees probably are optically better than the same participants getting together for a round of golf or an afternoon of croquet, tea and biscuits.

Other than the magnificent ramp-job by the re-programmed computer traders, the story of the moment continues to be the Facebook (FB) IPO fiasco, in which computer problems were finally revealed by NASDAQ which caused order and confirmation delays and cost some investors hundreds of thousands and had market makers like Knight and others trading positions the opposite from what they had originally intended.

At the end of the day, it was nothing other than the irresponsibility of the NASDAQ to proceed with the highly-anticipated IPO, when they knew problems were arising from a multitude of HFT participants who were variously long and short within milliseconds of the stock's opening.

The untenable situation worsened at the pre-open and into the opening of regular trading as the stock fell below the original offer price of 38.00, defended vigorously by the underwriters at the close of trading on Friday, but capitulation ensued Monday, with share prices falling under the IPO price at the open without recovering, closing the day at 34.03, down 4.20, an 11% loss.

In any case, today saw TEOTWAWKI (the end of the world as we know it) delayed, no thanks to world leaders, who seem to have less grasp on economic issues than they do their own futures.

Free houses for everyone!

Dow 12,504.48, -135.10 (1.09%)
NASDAQ 2,847.21, -68.42 (2.46%)
S&P 500 1,315.99, -20.77 (1.60%)
NYSE Composite 7,542.88, -115.14 (1.55%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,788,066,375
NYSE Volume 3,738,396,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4602-1024
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 35-180
WTI crude oil: 92.57, +1.09
Gold: 1,588.70, -3.20
Silver: 28.32, -0.39