Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Alabama Turns Blue; Yellen's Final Rate Hike In Focus

Late Tuesday night, the nation learned that Democrat Doug Jones defeated embattled Republican Roy Moore in Alabama's special election for the seat formerly occupied by Jeff Sessions, who vacated when he was promoted to Attorney General by President Trump.

What may very well go unlearned is how much the blatant attacks on Roy Moore by women claiming he sexually assaulted him or otherwise acted in immoral ways swung the election to Jones, who will be the first Democrat elected to the senate from Alabama since sitting senator Richard Shelby won as a Democrat in 1986, but changed parties in 1994.

The election of Jones narrows the Republican majority in the senate to 51-49, a slim edge that puts any future Republican-sponsored legislation in serious jeopardy. That's news that Wall Street should cheer because a lame congress is usually good for business, though it's far too early to say what the overall effect will be.

Looking further out, Democrats are bolstered by the upset victory in usually-red Alabama, believing - with good reason - that they have an opportunity to wrest control of the Senate in the 2018 mid-term elections, the campaigns for which will begin heating up shortly after the holidays.

What's also on the minds of investors is the FOMC policy meeting concluding Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is widely expected to vote to increase the federal funds rate another 25 basis points, to 1.25-1.50%.

As has been the case for the past nine years and the slow parade of 0.25% rate hikes which began in December of 2016, it's unlikely to cause much of a stir on Wall Street.

The Fed has plans for three to four more hikes in 2018, which would put the overnight lending rate at something around two percent. While still historically low, some analysts believe the economy isn't nearly durable enough to maintain a positive bent in the face of higher rates.

The Fed makes its policy statement at 2:00 pm ET Wednesday afternoon.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 12, 2017:
Dow: 24,504.80, +118.77 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 6,862.32, -12.76 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,664.11, +4.12 (+0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 12,697.78, +29.57 (+0.23%)

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

More of the Same: Stocks Start Week With Gains; Even Doug Noland Doesn't Know How It Ends

Nothing new about this, except that it's beginning to become obvious to everybody that the relentless ramping of stocks by central banks and their cohorts in the commercial banking sector (think Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Morgan Stanley) cannot continue uninterrupted.

On the other hand, it's been going on for a lot longer than anyone could have possibly expected...

The big questions are:

1. When does it end?
2. How does it end?

At this point, nobody in the financial world even has a clue, including people as bright and provocative as Doug Noland, who has been authoring the Credit Bubble Bulletin since the late 90s.

His recent interview podcast by Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity is incredibly prescient and offers insights into the global credit bubble that cannot be found anywhere else.

It is highly recommended listening.

At the Close, Monday, December 11, 2017:
Dow: 24,386.03, +56.87 (+0.23%)
NASDAQ: 6,875.08, +35.00 (+0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,659.99, +8.49 (+0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 12,668.21, +25.15 (+0.20%)

Friday, December 8, 2017

Stocks End Week Higher; Bitcoin Still Bubbly; Gold, Silver Pounded Lower

Stocks got back to rising without worry on Friday following the 238,000 new jobs reported in November, according to the BLS' non-farm payroll data.

The Dow, S&P, and Composite set new all-time high closing marks, the NASDAQ falling short of a record by 74 points, due primarily to the drubbing of the FAANGs late last week and early this week. Highly speculative tech stocks are considered to be benefited least of all companies by the tax bill currently coursing its way through congress, thus, some investors were shunning the sector for that reason. Others were likely taking profits after what is looking like a banner year for the tech leaders.

Bonds ended the week with a quiet session, the curve steepening ever so slightly, with the short-duration issues yielding the same or .01% more, while the 10-year-note yield was bumped a pip higher, to 2.38%.

The curve is still quite flat, with the spread between 2s and 30s only 98 basis points (0.98%). In other words, investors are flocking to short terms, which spells long-term trouble. In more normal times, a 30-year treasury bond would be yielding five from seven percent, but, even with the economy growing - albeit sluggishly - long-dated commitments are out of fashion. Lending the government money for a long period of time will only produce a return of 2.75%, hardly anything upon which one would hang a retirement fund. The federal government, if one believes in free market economics, is not a worthy bet from more than a few years.

Difficult to believe, but would you put your money at risk for an additional 20 years for an extra 0.37% return (the difference between the ten-year and the 30 year)? Probably not, and expert bond traders apparently agree.

No report would be complete without mentioning Bitcoin, which galloped above $17,000 on Thursday, but dropped back to just under $16,000 Friday, capping a week which it began just below $12,000 per coin.

On the flip side (pun intended), gold and silver were beaten down all week, sending silver to a loss year-to-date. Looks like a buying opportunity in the physical mining and bullion sector which has been the poster children for underperformance the past four years.

At the Close, Friday, December 8, 2017:
Dow: 24,329.16, +117.68 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 6,840.08, +27.24 (+0.40%)
S&P 500: 2,651.50, +14.52 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 12,643.06, +74.08 (+0.59%)

Gold: 1,245.90, -3.90 (-0.31%)
Silver: 15.73, +0.01 (+0.06%)

For the week:
Dow: +97.57 (+0.40%)
NASDAQ: -7.51 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: +9.28 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: +28.50 (+0.23%)

Stocks Bid as Congress Avoids Government Shutdown; NFP Grows by 228,000

On Thursday, with the House and Senate agreeing to keep the federal government open for business via a two-week continuing resolution, investors took that relief as reason to rally stocks, erasing some of the losses of the previous week.

As Friday morning advanced toward the opening bell, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics released their most recent data on employment in the November non-farm payroll (NFP) report.

Coming in better-than-expected, the department reported an increase of 228,000 net new jobs in the month of November, adding more evidence that the economy, under the guidance of President Donald J. Trump, continues to expand. The unemployment rate remained at decades-low, 4.1%.

Futures pointed to a strong positive open for Friday's week-ending session.

At the Close, Thursday, December 7, 2017:
Dow: 24,211.48, +70.57 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 6,812.84, +36.47 (+0.54%)
S&P 500: 2,636.98, +7.71 (+0.29%)
NYSE Composite: 12,568.98, +36.55 (+0.29%)

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Stocks Continue to Stall While Crypto Goes Wild; Silver Down for 2017

Stocks continued to plan through the early days of December, giving up early gains to close mixed to down on the day.

Overnight, Bitcoin careened through $13,000, $14,000, and $15,000 per coin to set all-time highs in an unprecedented move.

While the cryptocurrencies may have Wall Street and central banks on the ropes, it hasn't presented the chief manipulators of precious metals from pounding down gold and silver, the latter of which dropped below $16 per ounce, leaving it down for the year.

Bonds were bid, dropping yields, though the curve remained stubbornly flat. With the FOMC meeting less than a week ahead, declining bond yields may give the Fed reason to pause on their planned federal funds rate increase.

Meanwhile, Washington, DC is working out an emergency continuing resolution, designed to keep the government running for at least a few more weeks.

Amid all the political and monetary madness, stocks remain resilient, though the recent lag may be a sign that gains for the year may be already locked in to many portfolios.

Other than Bitcoin, which has entered either a bubble or mania stage, and precious metals, which are a screaming buy, there doesn't seem to be much to tantalize the usual stock purchasers. Valuations have been stretched, and, with Novemebr non-farm payroll data due out Friday morning, Thursday is setting up to be another day of divestiture and consolidation.

At the Close, Wednesday, December 6, 2017:
Dow: 24,140.91, -39.73 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 6,776.38, +14.16 (+0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,629.27, -0.30 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,532.43, -34.73 (-0.28%)

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Tech Rout Spreads to Other Sectors; Bonds Signaling Slowdown

We have seen this show before.

Jittery markets, just off fresh all-time highs, make dramatic swings to the downside.

For the past nine years running, such activity has typically been followed by aggressive "dip-buying" and soon thereafter, new all-time highs on all the major indices.

Is this time different?

It's tempting to say that it is, especially for analysts who have been consistently wrong about market corrections during the grand recovery, but, it's probably nothing, unless...

... one considers the US treasury bond complex and its fast-collapsing curve, which currently has the spread between between a 2-year bill (1.80%) and the 10-year-note (2.34%) at a mere 54 basis points. The 2/30 spread is a minuscule 92 basis points (1.80%-2.72%), but perhaps most troubling is the tiny, 21 basis points between the 5-year and 10-year note.

The five-year note is yielding 2.13%.

Why does this matter? There are a number of good reasons, primarily, because in banking, one typically buys short-duration and lends long duration, making money on the spread. But, if there is no spread, there's scant money to be made and only a relative few defaults on long loans (such as occurred during the sub-prime crisis) can cause calamity for the lenders.

Also, the danger of inversion is weighty, occurring when a shorter-duration bond yields higher than a longer-duration. Such inversion might occur between the fives and tens, where the spread is - as mentioned above - only 21 basis points (0.21%).

Inversion matters because it signals that investors have no appetite for anything of long duration (loss of confidence) and are attempting to get all the yield on the short end, as quickly as possible. Every time bond yields have inverted in the past 90 years of market history, a significant inversion has been followed by a recession.

So, while Wall Street is enjoying salad days in stocks, the bond market is worrying, as Main Street finds difficulty in borrowing for the future.

The tide in stocks may also be turning, as evidenced yesterday as the Dow took over the lead in the relentless decline experienced in the NASDAQ. At this point, all stocks are at risk, probably due to the threat of yet another government shutdown, looming close at December 8. The November non-farm payroll report Friday could be the catalyst to send stocks even lower and bond spreads tighter. Extreme caution is advised the remainder of the week, noting that holiday season stock routs are extremely rare events. They usually happen in January.

In conclusion, this time is not different. It's the same as it always has been. Periods of stock euphoria are usually followed by recession. Boom-bust. Nothing lasts forever. To think so is pure tom-foolery.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 5, 2017:
Dow: 24,180.64, -109.41 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ: 6,762.21, -13.15 (-0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,629.57, -9.87 (-0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 12,567.16, -67.73 (-0.54%)

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

FAANGs, NASDAQ Under Assault as Investors Book Profits

Profit-taking in tech stocks continued on Monday as high-flying, high-p/e companies known affectionately as the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) were subjected to relentless, high-volume selling.

For the record, here's how these tech darlings fared on Monday:
Facebook (FB) 171.47, -3.63 (-2.07%)
Apple (AAPL) 169.80, -1.25 (-0.73%)
Amazon (AMZN) 1,133.95, -28.40 (-2.44%)
Netflix (NFLX) 184.04, -2.78 (-1.49%)
Alphabet (Google, GOOG) 998.68, -11.49 (-1.14%)

General holders of these stocks are not yet alarmed over the losses which began a week ago, following the last-gasp ramping over Black Friday and Cyber Monday, because the companies have been among the best performers since January.

What is apparent is that investors are taking profits made in these stocks - none of which, other than Apple, offers dividends - and investing largely in Dow companies, all of which provide dividends to shareholders.

There's nothing unusual about what analysts typically call "sector rotation," except that the movement is quite pronounced. The S&P and Dow have outperformed the NASDAQ for six straight sessions.

With the markets less than two hours from the opening bell on Tuesday, futures are diverging wildly, with Dow futures up in the range of 130 points, while NASDAQ futures are falling by 90 points or greater.

At the Close, Monday, December 4, 2017:
Dow: 24,290.05, +58.46 (+0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,775.37, -72.22 (-1.05%)
S&P 500: 2,639.44, -2.78 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 12,634.89, +20.33 (+0.16%)

Monday, December 4, 2017

Dow Posts Best Week Of Year; NASDAQ Falls

Confused?

In what was the best performance week of the year for the Dow (a nearly three percent gain), the NASDAQ lost more than one half percent.

The math is fairly simple. Outside of Apple (AAPL), which is a component of Dow 30 stock, the FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) all got beaten down.

Facebook (FB) lost 1.78%.
Netflix (NFLX) was down 0.41%.
Amazon (AMZN) fell 1.44%, and Google (GOOG) dropped 1.10%. Additionally, another of the high-fliers, Tesla (TSLA) shed 0.75%.

Those stocks make up a mammoth portion of the total volume on the NASDAQ, thus nullifying any gains by all other stocks on the index.

Fear not, however, holders of high P/E paper, because since the Senate tax legislation was cleared Saturday morning by a narrow margin, all is well in the land of the free. Monday morning futures are pointing to a moon shot open.

For the Week Ending December 1, 2017:
Dow: +673.60 (+2.86%)
NASDAQ: -41.57 (-0.60%)
S&P 500: +39.80 (+1.53%)
NYSE Composite: +192.63 (+1.55%)

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Dow Gains, NASDAQ Falls, Bitcoin Up, then Down, Precious Metals Hammered

Dow stocks led the way on the second last day of November, as tech stocks (especially the FAANGS) were beaten down on the NASDAQ, suffering a loss of more than one percent - a rare occurrence these days.

Bitcoin ramped up over $11,000, before crashing. Silver and gold were flogged, as has been the case for too long as central banks struggle for survival in an increasingly fractured global environment.

Governments are still hanging onto their taxing powers, but it's becoming increasingly apparent in the West that promises made to workers - especially public employees - via pensions, are going to be revised.

The final day of the month signals new all-time highs as window dressing will be in effect. Republicans in congress hope to hold a vote on tax reform either Thursday or Friday. The margin of error for passing a bill is very slim as Republicans hold a small majority and all Democrats are expected to vote against any tax bill.

At the Close, Wednesday, November 29, 2017:
Dow: 23,940.68, +103.97 (+0.44%)
NASDAQ: 6,824.39, -87.97 (-1.27%)
S&P 500: 2,626.07, -0.97 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 12,561.32, +41.09 (+0.33%)

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

All-Time Highs Becoming the Norm on Wall Street

Even though a potential government shutdown and another rate hike by the Fed are just weeks away, stock investors don't seem to care.

All the major indices rocketed out of the gate to impressive gains on Tuesday, eviscerating previous records.

As Wednesday morning approaches the opening bell, news that third quarter GDP was revised higher in the second estimate, to 3.3%, has futures kicking higher.

While Bitcoin surpassed $10,000 per coin on Tuesday night, the Dow might one-up the cryptocurrency by hurtling past 24,000 on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials passed the 22,000 mark on September 11, and cruised above 23,000 on October 18, so, ripping through 24,000 in just over a month wouldn't be much of a surprise.

At the Close, Tuesday, November 28, 2017:
Dow: 23,836.71, +255.93 (+1.09%)
NASDAQ: 6,912.36, +33.84 (+0.49%)
S&P 500: 2,627.04, +25.62 (+0.98%)
NYSE Composite: 12,520.23, +129.45 (+1.04%)