What better way to start off the new year than to take over another country?
Well, sometimes, you get what you want, if what you want is, according to Wikipedia:
...officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea. It comprises an area of 912,050 km2 (352,140 sq mi), with a population estimated at 31.3 million in 2024. The capital and largest urban agglomeration is the city of Caracas. The continental territory is bordered on the north by the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, on the west by Colombia, Brazil on the south, Trinidad and Tobago to the north-east and on the east by Guyana.
Venezuela struggles with record hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, unemployment, poverty, disease, high child mortality, malnutrition, environmental issues, severe crime, and widespread corruption. U.S. sanctions and the seizure of Venezuelan assets overseas have cost the country $24–30 billion.
Where has the U.S. ventured into similar areas in the recent past? It's a short list:
- Afghanistan, population 20 million in 2001
- Iraq, population 25 million in 2003
- Ukraine, population 41 million in 2014
What do these countries have in common when it comes to U.S. involvement? Lots of military involvement, high death tolls, puppet governments, $$$ trillions of U.S. government money spent.
Venezuela fits nicely into this grouping. Similar to Iraq in terms of oil, Venezuela boasts the world's largest oil reserves, most of it heavy crude, but the U.S. has plenty of heavy crude refineries, many in the Gulf (of America or Mexico, take your pick) States of Texas and Louisiana, so getting the oil from Venezuela to the U.S. poses little difficulty, since, as President Trump stated unequivocally in his press briefing Saturday, the U.S. will "run" the country until a suitable government can be established. Figure on at least five years for that.
The immediate concern, beyond getting all of the country's oil out of the ground and into U.S. refineries, is the welfare of the 31 million Venezuelans living in a country without a legitimate government, a collapsed economy, and verious other issues. Humanitarian issues have not so far been addressed. One might suppose, given the nature of the current administration, that large corporate entities like PepsiCo (PEP), Archer Daniel Midlands (ADM), Tyson Foods (TSN), Coca-Cola (KO), KraftHeinz (KHC), Unilever (UL), and General Mills (GIS), might get first dibs on production facilities, farmland, and distribution operations. How they will manage their newfound booty, should it materialize, is an open question.
The other burning question is whether or not there will be any large scale insurrection or opposition to the self-imposed rule by the United States. One would assume some pushback, but, given the nature of the removal of President Maduro, it appears the Venezuelan military doesn't want to get very much in the way of U.S. armed forces, which have risen to significant levels over the pst few months. The U.S. will almost surely put boots on the ground. With any luck, the civilian population won't protest very much.
Whether or not things go differently in Venezuela than in the failed experiments at nation-building in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Ukraine may hinge on the country's proximity to the U.S. mainland. Unlike the other failures, this should go easier, though there are certainly no guarantees.
As a part of the Trump administration's "America First" and revived Monroe Doctrine policies, taking over a large country loaded wiht natural resources seems like a good fit, though if the situation turns into another extended military obligation, the U.S. public, to the extent they're kept in the dark over developments down south, may not approve. Even with the initial takeover still underway, protests have been sounded from the usual sources on the left side of the political spectrum. In general terms, Democrats opposed the action, Republicans approved. The administration is framing the action as an arrest and a law enforcement action. Maduro, his wife, and others were indicted in the U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York and had been indicted for drug trafficking and other crimes back in 2020.
How all of this plays out remains very much a matter of speculation. The likeliest of outcomes, at least in the near term, is for U.S. companies to go in and seize as much of the country's resources as possible, probably under protection of the U.S. military. Longer term, it's likely that the native population isn't going to be very friendly toward its new rulers. By and large, the U.S. couldn’t care less about Venezuelan citizens. As long as there are men with guns on the ground, the U.S. will plunder at will, protests will be quelled, likely by the co-opted Venezuelan military, and the country as a whole will continue to suffer. U.S. interests will benefit. Nothing new there.
Stocks
Being that the week just past was at the intersection of December 2025 and January 2026, it wouldn't be prudent to make any claims about what may lie ahead, especially with the insertion of the Venezuela angle. Suffice it to say that stocks didn't end the old year well, nor did they start off the new year with a resounding bang.
All of the majors suffered losses for the week, led by the NASDAQ's decline of 1.52%. As usual, talk in the week ahead will mention the January effect, with the implication that an upside market in the first month of the year bodes well for the remaining 11 months. It has been a fairly reliable gauge, worth keeping an open eye upon.
There are a few companies of lesser importance announcing fourth quarter earnings in the week ahead, though the quarterly earnings season will kick off with the week starting Monday, January 12, when larger financial institutions, beginning with JP Morgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday, January 13, and Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday, January 14, report.
Employment and the labor market will be the focus of the first full week of trading in the U.S., with the monthly ADP employment report due out on Wednesday along with December job cuts from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas. On Friday, the BLS gets back on a regular schedule with the December non-farm payrolls, expected to show job gains of 55,000 for the month, down slightly from November's gain of 64,000, which is likely to be revised lower.
Wall Street will be keenly aware of the employment figures, given they will factor into the Fed's thinking concerning rate movement at the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for January 27-28.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 1.5 mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 11/28/2025 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 3.99 | 3.88 | 3.86 | 3.74 | 3.61 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.77 | 3.71 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 3.61 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.76 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.63 | 3.64 | 3.58 | 3.54 |
| 12/19/2025 | 3.71 | 3.71 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.64 | 3.60 | 3.51 |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.70 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 3.64 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 3.49 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.72 | 3.71 | 3.66 | 3.65 | 3.62 | 3.58 | 3.47 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 11/28/2025 | 3.47 | 3.49 | 3.59 | 3.78 | 4.02 | 4.62 | 4.67 |
| 12/05/2025 | 3.56 | 3.59 | 3.72 | 3.90 | 4.14 | 4.75 | 4.79 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3.52 | 3.58 | 3.75 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.82 | 4.85 |
| 12/19/2025 | 3.48 | 3.53 | 3.70 | 3.91 | 4.16 | 4.77 | 4.82 |
| 12/26/2025 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 3.68 | 3.89 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 4.81 |
| 01/02/2026 | 3.47 | 3.55 | 3.74 | 3.95 | 4.19 | 4.81 | 4.86 |
Analysts are split on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. for the year ahead. Those most bullish on prospects for continued growth see long-dated maturities falling, while the bear campers see them rising due to instability and geo-politics. The Venezuelan situation seems to align with the bears, and the direction over the past week offers an advanced view. 10-year notes yielded 4.19% on Friday, up five basis points from the previous week, with 30-years bond yields up the same amount, to 4.86%.
On the short end, one month bills remain tethered to the high end of the range, at 3.72%. Unless the Fed exercises some degree of curve control, U.S. adventurism isn't likely to encourage foreign buyers. A seeming continuation of "forever wars" policy hasn't gone over well, per early reporting. Most countries in the Asian sphere of influence have issued statements condemning the U.S. foray into regime change, indicating foreign buying continuing to dry up, possibly at a quicker pace.
Spreads are approaching nose-bleed levels, with 2s-10s at +72 and 30-day-30-year (full spectrum) out to +114, both multi-year highs. While that steepening of the curve tends to signal positively, the overall health of the treasury market continues to suggest something amiss. The Fed has shelled out $74.6 billion on Wednesday, December 31 via its standing repo operation. That's a large amount of liquidity needed by somebody. Speculation is running rampant that one of the larger bullion banks needed help financing losses from shorting silver futures. Others believe it wasn't a large bank, but possibly some smaller market participants. The information is cloudy at best. As is the usual case with such matters, the public will be the last to know.
Spreads:
2s-10s
2025
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38
4/4: +33
4/11: +52
4/17: +53
4/25: +55
5/2: +50
5/9: +49
5/16: +45
5/23: +51
5/30: +52
6/6: +48
6/13: +45
6/20: +48
6/27: +56
7/3: +47
7/11: +53
7/18: +56
7/25: +49
8/1: +54
8/8: +51
8/15: +58
8/22: +58
8/29: +64
9/5: +59
9/12: +50
9/19: +57
9/26: +57
10/3: +45
10/10: +53
10/17: +56
10/24: +54
10/31: +51
11/7: +56
11/14: +52
11/21: +55
11/28: +55
12/5: +58
12/12: +67
12/19: +68
12/26: +68
2026
1/2: +72
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2025
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26
4/4: +5
4/11: +38
4/17: +44
4/25: +40
5/2: +41
5/9: +46
5/16: +52
5/23: +68
5/30: +59
6/6: +69
6/13: +67
6/20: +69
6/27: +66
7/3: +51
7/11: +59
7/18: +65
7/25: +55
8/1: +32
8/8: +37
8/15: +44
8/22: +41
8/29: +51
9/5: +49
9/12: +40
9/19: +54
9/26: +55
10/3: +47
10/10: +43
10/17: +42
10/24: +48
10/31: +61
11/7: +69
11/14: +70
11/21: +68
11/28: +62
12/5: +97
12/12: +109
12/19: +111
12/26: +111
2026
1/2: +114
Oil/Gas
WTI crude closed out the week at $57.33, up only slightly from the prior Friday New York close of $56.93. The Venezuela effect will be seen on Monday, with an expected price drop of possibly mammoth proportions. As the week and month rolls on, there may be a print in the $40s for the first time in more than five years.
The U.S. national average for gas at the pump dropped just a penny to $2.78, the lowest price in roughly five years, according to Gasbuddy.com. Given the current state of play, gas prices should continue to decline over the near term and possibly more rapidly, considering the situation in Venezuela.
California remains the highest in the lower 48 states, down another two cents at $4.23 per gallon, but even that figure is down substantially from six months and a year ago. Washington ($3.80) is down another five cents, leaving the Golden State alone in the $4+ club. Oregon ($3.37), was down another nickel. The lowest prices remain in the Southeast, with Oklahoma catching down six more cents to $2.16, a multi-year low. Neighboring states, Colorado ($2.27), Texas ($2.34), and Arkansas ($2.35), also experienced lower prices. The remaining Southeast states are all below $2.61 with the exception of Florida ($2.82).
In the Northeast, prices continue to decline. Only Vermont ($3.03), New York ($3.01), and Pennsylvania ($3.00) are at or above $3.00.
In the midwest region, where the price relief has been significant, Illinois ($2.87) dropped another four cents and remains below $3.00 for a third consecutive week. At the low end were Colorado ($2.27), Kansas ($2.40), and Nebraska ($2.42).
Sub-$3.00 gas was reported in fully 40 states, the same as last week and up 14 over the past month. Arizona may be the next to fall, checking in at $3.01 this week. Not including Alaska and Hawaii, there are just eight states with gas prices above $3.00 and just one, California, over $4.00.
Bitcoin
This week: $91,306.05
Last week: $87,661.04
2 weeks ago: $88,044.85
6 months ago: $108,230.00
One year ago: $98,355.51
Five years ago: $32,090.97
Since the seizure of President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, a story has been circulating about how the Venezuelan "cartel" converted some of its oil and gold profits into roughly $60 billion worth of bitcoin. It's the same kind of empty propaganda that usually causes the kind of price movement that was seen overnight into Sunday, a move of about $2,000. While, if true, $60 billion in bitcoin is hardly worth mentioning in the larger scheme of things, what the story does inadvertently point out is that bitcoin is indeed employed by criminals and terrorists to launder and hide money from financial authorities, though nobody in the crypto community seems capable of relaying that message clearly enough.
Bitcoin remains in a downtrend, one that many analysts are saying could reach as low as $50,000 or $30,000 in 2026. One prominent voice has called for a bottom around $10,000, though that would imply an extreme number of beached whales.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.94; last week: 57.18
Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/5: $4,227.70
Gold price 12/12: $4,329.80
Gold price 12/19: $4,368.70
Gold price 12/28: $4,562.00
Gold price 1/2: $4,341,90
Silver price 12/5: $58.80
Silver price 12/12: $62.08
Silver price 12/19: $67.39
Silver price 12/28: $79.68
Silver price 1/2: $72.26
SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 12/5: $4,196.63
Gold 12/12: $4,297.29
Gold 12/19: $4,337.83
Gold 12/26: $4,533.00
Gold 1/2: $4,331.09
Silver 12/5: $58.28
Silver 12/12: $62.01
Silver 12/19: $67.21
Silver 12/26: $79.27
Silver 1/2: $72.25
Prices for precious metals once again were affected negatively by so-called "Mr. Slammy", the elements of price suppression that have been operative for the past 40 to 50 years. While the declines on the COMEX were regular and serious enough to take gold down from above $4,500 to a support level around $4,330 on Monday, December 29, price seems to have held through two CME margin hikes over the span of just one week. Silver was similarly affected, down from a brief high over $80 to support in the $71-73 range.
In addition to the CME margin raises, China invoked licensing requirements for exporters of silver, which will serve to tighten the physical market even further. The struggle between the paper price and the physical price continues, though it has become apparent that the usual COMEX hijinks are having lesser effects. The new year just underway, it's still to early to predict where the major powers are taking precious metal prices. The U.S. incursion into Venezuela will have some impact, though it is likely the response from the BRICS and China in particular be more in the way of a larger, policy-related manner when it comes to silver. As far as the price of gold is concerned, there doesn't seem to be an upper limit.
Prices may fluctuate over the near term, but the major, primary trend remains to the upside. Platinum and palladium have also seen strong price appreciation lately as part of a general commodity super-cycle.
Silver's long term shortage appears to be very much a part of the metals narrative and industrial use is likely to support higher prices in the intermediate and longer term. Retail buying of both gold and silver is still in a nascent state, though signs of strong buying have begun to crop up in Asian and Middle East markets. The desire to own gold and silver on an individual basis is much stronger in the Global South than in Western developed nations. Physical price will eventually take precedence over derivative pricing via the COMEX and LBMA, but, for now, the world seems content to allow the suppression games to continue.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 74.56 | 90.00 | 81.54 | 79.50 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 80.00 | 89.99 | 85.82 | 86.44 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 4,411.95 | 4,751.88 | 4,550.25 | 4,532.36 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 4,487.60 | 4,681.33 | 4,536.24 | 4,521.06 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) finally cooled off a bit, falling to $83.33, a decline of $2.42 from the December 28 price of $85.75 per troy ounce. The weekly movement is in line with wider volatility in world markets.
WEEKEND WRAP
Politicians and their advisors are human, and, as such, are prone to err in judgement, actions, words, and deeds. The masterminds behind Saturday's Venezuelan escapade must have certain goals in mind and they will affect large numbers of people, not just in South America, but around the world. Whether they have calculated correctly or not cannot, at this juncture, be adequately anticipated since there are too many moving parts in play. Details are likely to be well hidden from public scrutiny, but, as far as can be seen, the main focus was oil and the purpose, to keep prices down to harm Russia, Iran, and more directly, China, which was on the receiving end of much of Venezuela's output.
Lower oil prices will also enhance President Trump's popularity at home, via lower prices at the pump, which are already down significantly from a year, two, and three years ago. The political angle - to retain the Republican House and Senate majorities in November - is obvious. They have 10 months to get things sorted out south of the border. Perhaps there is a plan afoot for further incursions into South America, having already established a foothold, though those operations may not occur until after the elections, or, if emboldened, as an October surprise.
The world has become a giant chessboard, or, more likely, a poker table for Texas no-hold 'em. The Trump administration has been deft at not revealing motives, but China, Russia, India, the BRICS, and importantly, Brazil, have hands to play as well, and they may be setting up America to go all in with what appears to be a winning hand. Clearly not bluffing, the U.S. empire faces immediate and intermediate dangers. The year upon us seems to be one full of surprises. Strap in. It's likely to be a bumpy ride.
At the Close, Friday, January 2, 2026:
Dow: 48,382.39, +319.10 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: 23,235.63, -6.36 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 6,858.47, +12.97 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,233.89, +229.96 (+1.05%)
For the Week:
Dow: -328.58 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: -357.47 (-1.52%)
S&P 500: -71.47 (-1.03%)
NYSE Composite: -12.67 (-0.06%)
Dow Transports: -111.82 (-0.63%)
Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2025, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.
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