So much for the Santa Claus Rally™.
Stocks made their bast gains early in the month. As 2025 draws to a close, the major indices have closed lower the first two days of this week and are staring at a third straight loss.
Markets are open for a full session on Wednesday, the final trading day of the year.
Futures are pointing to a flat or slightly negative open to close out what has been an overall profitable year for equity holders and precious metals, but something of a bummer for oil companies. WTI crude has been a losing proposition he entire year, spending most of it below $70/barrel and much of the last three months under $60.
Oil's disappointing concerns have come from a combination of oversupply and diminishing demand. Given the growth of EVs in China, India and elsewhere, it shouldn't be a surprise that use of distillates like gasoline and diesel are in a slump. While "going green" hasn't been the panacea many have desired, it is having a large effect. Beyond EVs, solar power has made great strides over the past 30 years, owing to advancements in technology and greater efficiency. Old school deniers cling to outdated notions of a world dependent on oil as newer forms of energy - particularly batteries and solar - have displaced the old standards.
Tech stocks, among them the Magnificent 7, have led the S&P and NASDAQ to new heights. The Dow managed to lag not far behind, with a year-to-date return of 13.69%. The NASDAQ led (21.27%), with the S&P not far behind, at 17.25%.
Precious metals were far and away the big winners with gold up 65% and silver ahead by a whopping 145%.
Along with oil, crypto had an unusually poor performance in 2025. Bitcoin is down nearly five percent on the year and more than 25% over the past three months, dragging down other popular "coins", such as ethereum (-10% YTD) and Cardano (ADA), which has lost nearly 60% in 2025. Many other offerings in the crypto space have left "hodlers" with little more than air pockets.
As the world heads towards another trip around the sun, outlooks are diverse, ranging from the usual rosiness from Wall Street types to gloom and doom from internet pundits, suggesting everything from U.S. dollar collapse to World War III and everything in between.
Geopolitics shaped much of the year and seems to be on track to influence 2026 greatly as the conflict in Ukraine remains far from resolution, Gaza continues to be a sore spot in the Middle East and BRICS nations and their associates have turned the tables on Western economies.
There is certain to be major disruption in economics in 2026. The trends of de-dollarization, militarization, and a fracturing of the institutional norms that have been in place for 80 years appear to be headed toward some kind of conclusion, ideally, not a calamitous one, though the outcomes for the West seem to point toward further failings.
If anything, 2026 appears to be a continuation of trends already in place, further eroding Western dominance.
There is little doubt that leaders in the West have flailed about furiously failing while BRICS, especially China, India, and Russia appear calm and purposeful.
We leave 2025 with no predictions other than what looks like a tough year for stocks and economies in developed G7 nations and more progress in the Global South toward a multi-polar financial framework.
May there be peace and prosperity for all in 2026. Happy New Year!
At the Close, Tuesday, December 30, 2025:
Dow: 48,367.06, -94.87 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 23,419.08, -55.27 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 6,896.24, -9.50 (-0.14%)
NYSE Composite: 22,148.08, -17.87 (-0.08%)
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