Stocks Generally Higher Because the System Works That Way; Fighting the Fed and the Government Is a Not a Strategy; Keep Buying

For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average has lost some 412 points through the close of trading Thursday. Conversely, the NASDAQ is up 374 points, and the S&P is up 60.

WTI futures traded above $74 earlier in the week, but have retreated back to a range around $72 per barrel. There's really not much to see regarding the macro picture. Nothing much has changed.

Stocks continue to trade near all-time highs, a condition that has more or less prevailed for the last three? five? twenty? years. It's kept alive by a combination of excessive government spending, relentless expansion of the money supply by the Fed, and Wall Street hustlers who variably use greed (you can have it all) and fear (FOMO) to encourage anybody with any kind of disposable income to buy stocks.

Those with the most disposable income are the top earners, billionaire hedge fund managers, private offices, and corporate executives themselves, who have benefitted the most from the churning and grinding at the Fed, in Washington, and on Wall Street. Anybody lucky enough to have invested in stocks over the past 20 years or so has made handsome returns and is living the good life.

Naturally, the main element is the Federal Reserve, the central banking authority that is charged with keeping the economy chugging along lik a monetary locomotive, printing money out of thin air and showering it upon the masses. There is literally nothing the people at the Fed would do to restrain credit or money creation. Keeping their counterfeiting operation going is their foremost priority, not full employment or stable prices. Those so called mandates are just for show and the government largely provides more than enough manipulated data to support the claims that the economy is growing, people have jobs and inflation is under control, all laughably spurious arguments.

Because employment and inflation data are control mechanisms of the government, they have been, and will continue to be providing narrative cover for the Fed's printing press. Unemployment figures are fantasies considering the labor force participation rate, currently at all-time lows. GDP is supported by transfer payments. More than half the people in the U.S. welfare-warfare state receive some level of government support, be it welfare checks, food stamps, social security benefits or farm subsidies.

Government polices consist of spending and welfare, a little taxing, and a lot of borrowing. While these conditions would be reprehensible to any honest accountant or economist, they are the strings that pull together the American experience. Pay your taxes, feed your families, and invest whatever you have left over in the stock market. Ignore the huddled masses in tent cities and homeless shelters. The government has them covered and they're not a concern of yours.

This objectionable, twisted form of fascist capitalism will prevail. As earnings season goes into full sprint the next three weeks, the path of least resistance is clearly up, up, and away.

Expect new highs on all the major indices within two weeks because the system, like it or not, works that way. and, as the mobsters say after whacking an operative who has strayed, "there's nothing we could do about it."

Pay no attention to the doomers and gloomers who say that the current condition is unsustainable, that $40 trillion in debt is beyond the pale, that stocks are overdue for a correction. Buy the dips. Buy the rips. Just keep buying.

At the Close, Thursday, July 9, 2026:
Dow: 52,487.41, +139.02 (+0.27%)
NASDAQ: 26,206.89, +336.24 (+1.30%)
S&P 500: 7,543.64, +60.93 (+0.81%)
NYSE Composite: 23,876.84, +86.23 (+0.36%)

America's Failure at "Football" Exposes the Myth of Exceptionalism, Skewers the Narrative, and Makes the U.S. Look Stupid and Weak

Americans call the game "soccer." The rest of the world calls it "football."

Once again, American exceptionalism exposes the soft belly underneath the rhetoric. America wants to define the terms without having mastered the basic concepts.

America's national team in the 2026 World Cup showed - as it does, like clockwork, every four years - that the United States is entirely uncompetitive in the world's favorite sport. America talks a good game... or, rather, the blathering idiots like Carly Lloyd, Alexi Lalas, and Landon Donovan talk up the team like its the second coming of the Light Brigade, praising U.S. players as if they are on a par with the likes of Mbape, Renaldo, or Messi. The first clue to the myth-making is that no American player is recognized by one name, like the greats from France, Portugal, or Argentina. No, America is at best second rate when it comes to the world of football, but fans and TV talking heads can't help gushing over what turn out to be just ordinary exploits.

Every four years, Americans get to hear the same, tired nonsense, about how far America has come in terms of competitiveness at the World Cup, how this team or these players comprise a growing, emerging explosion of football greatness from sea to shining sea. It's always the same: the U.S. team can't even make the quarterfinals and are usually embarrassed in the earlier rounds by European squads which know how to play the game and win games.

This year's fiasco was none different from past failures. In the Group Stage, hopes were raised that the USA had finally arrived, beating Paraguay, Australia, and Turkey to qualify for the knockout rounds. Announcers were all too eager to call this team "one of the best ever," and a "basis for the future." What they failed to observe was that the United States beat up some very second-rate or third-rate teams in their easy grouping. None of the teams in the group, including the United States, has ever won a World Cup championship. So, with attendant sound and fury, the United States team sailed into the Round of 32 and defeat an infant team from Bosnia-Herzegovina, 2-nil. The whoops and chants of USA-USA-USA grew louder, but the real test was yet to come, when the U.S. faced Belgium in the Round of 16.

The 4-1 loss to Belgium completed the story. The United States was completely outclassed by the Belgian nationals, many of whose players are veterans of various European leagues. Further, Belgium takes its football quite seriously. After a third place finish in the 2018 World Cup, Belgium was ousted in Group play in 2022, and a concerted effort was made to improve off that disappointment with better players, smarter coaches, and strategic thinking. They absolutely schooled their American counterparts in a completely one-sided, 4-1, rout.

Despite the continuous chorus of America's team's emergence into the elite of the football world, what fans everywhere saw was a team that lacked any kind of defensive cohesion, giving up two early goals that most teams would have easily defended. The third goal, off a grievous error by U.S. goalkeeper, Matt Freese, was the ultimate embarrassment and put the game completely out of reach. The United States failed to generate any good scoring chances, their lone goal coming on a fortunate ball on a free kick. Other than that, they were flat, outplayed, and out-coached. The United States was the only team - out of 32 - in the knockout stage to allow four goals, which brings us to the meat of the matter...

Americans, especially these days, with a loudmouth braggart occupying the White House, consider themselves to be superior to the rest of the world and routinely announce such to anybody within earshot. Of course, Americans with IQs above room temperature understand that all the posturing and posing by the USA in any field, be it mathematics, industry, snowboarding, or anything else, is usually unwarranted and the World Cup fiasco is the perfect metaphor for all of the meaningless, loud-mouthed spoutng of platitudes, greatness, and world dominance.

The United States doesn't dominate in anything other than bragging and blowing up people and countries that don't agree with its obviously-flawed rationale for why others should bend the knee to the American Empire. Just like the World Cup football team, the United States is second rate in everything when compared to other leading countries of the world, China and Russia, especially. Over the past 60 or so years, the United States has been reduced from being a shining, productive, innovative nation to one which has ignored the needs of its citizens, failed to upgrade infrastructure, and has brought new meaning to the term "wealth disparity."

The country may lead in some rare categories. U.S. politicians rank as some of the most corrupt. The United States also is very-highly ranked for putting narratives before reality. The press corps in the United States is among the global leaders in propaganda, spewing half-truths and outright lies on a regular basis.

There's a lesson or two to be learned from the World Cup experience but Ameircans are unlikely to learn them, being too pre-occupied with the latest celebrity romance or corporate scandal. Greatness cannot be achieved by talking about it. Greatness is earned by accomplishment. Advancing to the quarterfinals of the next World Cup would be a giant step in the right direction, but America won't likely make the commitment to improve nor put the right people in the right places. The entire structure of USA "football" will be dominated by failures and opportunists, quick buck artists, and lazy thinkers.

Just like America's military escapades in Ukraine and the Middle East, the World Cup experience exposes the United States as what they refer to in Texas as, "big hat, no cattle."

Because the stock market is at or near all-time highs does not imply value. Men of riches and material wealth are not necessarily wise. America talks a good game, but, when it comes down to proving, it fails to deliver.

Thanks for listening. In the hallowed words of Chris Martenson, "it doesn't have to be this way."

At the Close, Wednesday, July 8, 2026:
Dow: 52,348.39, -576.76 (-1.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,870.65, +51.96 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,482.71, -21.14 (-0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 23,790.61, -226.35 (-0.94%)

Trump Calls Iranians, "Scum," Believes Ceasefire is Over; Oil Jumps; America Led by Criminals Has Poisoned Markets

As long as there are political leaders willing to wage war, commit murder and genocide to achieve their ends, nothing in financial markets is safe. Even gold, the usual bastion of safety in turbulent times, has declined while worldwide militarism is on the rise.

The fragile peace in the Middle East seems to have come to an end. After Iran reportedly struck ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. retaliated, President Trump, in Ankara, Turkey for a NATO summit, said of the Iranians and the ceasefire, "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them [Iran] anymore; they're scum."

Well, calling the people you started a war with (and largely lost) "scum" is about par for the course for President Bone Spurs. The man may not be as delirious as his predecessor, Joe Biden, but he is many times more dangerous to the lives of people worldwide. He's proven to be perhaps the most duplicitous, money-grubbing president in the 250-year history of the United States, and that's saying something. Presidents, over the years, have been some of the more untrustworthy politicians to supposedly "lead" the nation.

Along with Trump's bombast, he's surrounded by scoundrels like son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate buddy, Steve Witkoff, both of whom are unelected and unconfirmed by congress and have no official capacity in the executive branch. These two comprise the president's negotiating team, though VP JD Vance is officially the leader of the delegation working out terms of the MOU with Iran. Vance is a proven turncoat, having gone from "never-Trump" status to Vice President in the course of just a few years. Anybody trusting him to do anything that would benefit the American public needs to re-examine their priorities.

Other members of Trump's cabinet are either syncopates or sociopaths, like Howard Lutnik, famous neighbor of one Jeffrey Epstein, who has benefitted financially in his role as head of the Commerce Department. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, besides being gay, worked hand-in-glove with George Soros in taking down the British pound and is possibly the most disruptive treasury official in history. All of these people are dishonest, ruthless, and wholly unworthy of the positions they currently hold.

Congress, which just seems ot go along with the grift and graft of the day, is worthless. They represent themselves, not the American public which voted them into office.

Go ahead and play in the financial sandbox with Trump holding the biggest shovel, but, be aware that markets can, and will, turn on a dime, with insiders and special interests controlling every trade.

With the recent Mideast activity threatening to spill over into all-out war again, stock futures are down; gold and silver under pressure, and oil ramping higher.

America, for whatever it's worth - and there is much to praise about the country as a whole - is being led by criminals.

American citizens, overwhelmed by the size and scope of the federal government, have no say in anything.

At the Close, Tuesday, July 7, 2026:
Dow: 52,925.15, -130.75 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 25,818.69, -302.51 (-1.16%)
S&P 500: 7,503.85, -33.58 (-0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 24,016.96, -58.14 (-0.24%)

Wall Street Continues to Rally as America First Becomes Entrenched in Rhetoric; Stocks At or Near All-Time Highs with No End in Sight

Apparently, 250 years of American greatness will continue, at least according to the stock market on the first day of trading following the big celebration. All the major indices were up, with the Dow setting a new all-time closing high. The S&P is a little more than one percent of its all-time high (7,609,78, June 2, 2026) while the NASDAQ needs to add two percent to mark a new record.

Wall Street figures on blowing the bubble as hard as possible, to unimaginable levels in the new "Americana" trade.

As far as the Shiller PE (CAPE) is concerned, stocks remain at the second-highest level ever (41.97), dwarfed only by the December 1999 reading of 44.19. That is certainly the target, and it is ultimately achievable because there are no brakes on this runaway train of a stock market.

Returning from the three-day weekend, there is little to suggest that the rally begun upon the ceasefire of the Iran-U.S. conflict (March 30) is anywhere near exhaustion. With the Strait of Hormuz open for business and the MOU between the warring parties still being assembled, the war that was has become a back-page issue. America and Iran both got what they wanted from the conflict. Iran achieved bargaining power while the U.S., despite suffering some catastrophic losses at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and elsewhere, maintained an image of power in the region. How long the game of charades and polite bargaining will continue is anyone's guess.

Where stocks go from here depends on a number of factors, none of them more prominent than the AI buildout, which has run into snags. On the ground, local citizens are protesting the building of large data centers near their communities. state and county officials have been besieged by angry residents fearing a monumental rise in their utility bills, increased pollution, and draining of natural resources, particularly water, which the data centers desperately need for cooling.

There's little doubt that the U.S. needs an overhaul of their electrical grid and other infrastructure like roads, bridges, high-speed internet, and the AI buildout could provide some of the needed upgrade, though not necessarily in places that have the most pressing need. It's a back-handed way of doing what municipalities, states, and the federal government have been ignoring for decades. It would be wise to move forward with infrastructure, as it creates temporary jobs and is very noticeable, fueling the "America, yeah" rhetoric.

Against a backdrop of November midterm elections, the Trump white House needs to project an image of power and strength. So far, they've avoided any walking back in international affairs, which is important as the NATO summit gets underway Tuesday and Wednesday in Ankara, Turkey.

The talk coming out of the summit will likely lean toward continuation of current policies (Russia, bad; Ukraine, good) with a little less focus on American involvement. Europe itself needs to bolster its image, and will do so by making the same threats against Russia as it has for the last four years. The conflict in Ukraine, as much as its become a back-burner issue in the U.S., is still very much front and center in Europe and the leaders in France, Germany, and England need to keep the pressure on Russia.

There's not much chance of change in those policies. Once leaders of countries get an agenda started - good or bad - they are reluctant to walk it back, even if it turns their country to a basket case (England, Germany). The politicians will continue on a war footing for now, which is positive for U.S. stocks overall.

The other issues facing the market are employment and interest rates, both of which seem to be in sweet spots for now. Once Wall Street comes to the realization that the Fed, under Kevin Warsh, is not about to make rash judgement calls and is far from being politicized, the idea that a rate hike is in the cards will vanish like a David Copperfield mummy.

Full speed ahead appears to be the only command Wall Street understands and there are millions of people with passive investments who are in lvoe with that.

At the Close, Monday, July 6, 2026:
Dow: 53,055.91, +155.84 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,121.16, +288.49 (+1.12%)
S&P 500: 7,537.43, +54.19 (+0.72%)
NYSE Composite: 24,075.12, +118.04 (+0.49%)

WEEKEND WRAP: A Quiet Week Ahead as U.S.A. Celebrates 250 Years, 3rd Quarter Commences; May Be a Slow Summer with Lower Gas Prices

Editor's Note: Being that it's a quiet holiday weekend and the immediacy of a medical issue (friend with appendicitis), Money Daily is going to dispatch with most of the usual commentary. We'll pick things up on Tuesday. --FR

The United States has surpassed 250 years of existence. The next 250 we'll leave to future historians.

Stocks

All the major indices ramped higher into the holiday weekend, the Dow posting its fourth straight weekly gain and sixth in the last seven. Friday's Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS had minimal effect, with 57,000 new jobs reported, and prior months revised lower. The Dow and NASDAQ took radically different takes on the employment condition, with the Dow spiking to record highs and the NASDAQ taking another bump lower.

Second quarter earnings are still a week off, with banks and financial companies reporting the week beginning July 13. In the week ahead, just a few early reports will be released. On Wednesday, Helen of Troy (HELE) and Levi-Strauss (LEVI) report. Thursday, WD-40 (WDFC) and Pepsico (PEP), with Friday reserved for Delta Airlines (DAL).

U.S. balance of Trade gets reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Wholesale Inventories for June and Fed Minutes from the June meeting are released. Thursday's report of Existing Home Sales for June leads the housing market. The Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count is Friday. A pretty light week overall.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94
07/02/2026	3.70	3.73	3.81	3.82	3.91	3.98	3.96

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87
07/02/2026	4.14	4.16	4.23	4.35	4.49	4.99	4.98

Treasury yields reversed course this week on continued speculation that the Federal Reserve would hike the federal funds target rate in an effort to stave off inflation, though there remains scant evidence that the Fed entertains any such plans other the usual "dot plot" of FOMC members, which are only opinions and usually incorrect. Nonetheless, 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, crept closer to the Maginot lines at 4.50% and 5.00%, respectively.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, expectations that the Fed would raise rates at either the July or September meetings moved considerably, with an 80% likelihood that rates would remain at the 3.50-3.75% level in July (7/29) and an even split between 3.50-3.75% and 3.75-4.00% at the September meeting (9/16). Spreads on 2s-10s and full spectrum widened.

Smart money says the Fed does nothing until after the midterm elections, which would mean the December 9 FOMC meeting at the earliest.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $68.78 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, dropping from last week's closing price of $70.24, as the fragile peace in the Middle East is extended and Americans celebrate 250 years of independence from British rule.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.81 last week and $3.72 this week, as President Trump cajoles and threatens Big Oil over the price of a gallon of unleaded regular. His contention that gas prices should be lower is based upon the recent prices for crude oil, which is back to levels of late February and early March. The national average price at the pump was around $3.15 at the time. The president fails to take into account that the oil companies must deplete gas that cost considerably more before lowering the price to meet the current reality. Gas has been trending lower and should continue to do so, as long as peace in the Middle East is maintained.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, but those will need to be rebuilt. The IEA continues to suggest that there will be a glut in 2027 of around four million barrels a day, a condition which, if achieved, will send gas prices well below $3.00.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.33 (-0.06)
Washington: $5.02 (-0.14)
Indiana (lowest): $3.05 (-0.17)
Oklahoma : $3.24 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.36 (-0.06)
Florida: $3.76 (-0.02)
Illinois: $3.96 (-0.15)
Pennsylvania: $3.95 (-0.06)
New York: $4.03 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.69 (-0.05)
Michigan: $4.95 (-0.14)
Texas: $3.27 (+0.03)
Georgia: $3.50 (-0.04)

On Sunday, July 5th, there are six (6) states with average prices above $4.00, with 42 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.35) and Alaska ($4.77), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past six weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.50) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.44 to $3.60. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest. Indiana ($3.05) remained the lowest due to Governor Mike Braun suspending state taxes at the pump. On July 2nd he extended the suspension into the first week of August.

Bitcoin

This week: $62,699.50
Last week: $60,194.49
2 weeks ago: $64,068.87
6 months ago: $92,624.93
One year ago: $108,114.00
Five years ago: $33,513.73

Bitcoin slumped to a low near $57,000 on July 2nd, the lowest price since September, 2024. The price of an imaginary "coin" rebounded over the weekend, but to levels that are insignificant in the long scheme of things.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 67.66; last week: 69.12

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00
Gold price 7/2: $4,187.30

Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60
Silver price 7/2: $62.81

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00
Gold 7/2: $4,122.76

Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16
Silver 7/2: $60.93

Here's what we said last week, which is still relevant:

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	65.00	83.00	72.47	70.00
1 oz silver bar:	64.33	83.45	74.92	75.61
1 oz gold coin:	4250.00	4743.43	4424.58	4405.00
1 oz gold bar:	4200.00	4428.69	4343.56	4355.67

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) held steady, finishing the week at $73.25, for a gian of 21 cents per troy ounce from the June 28 price of $73.04.

WEEKEND WRAP

It's July. Wall Street usually steps back a bit at this time and volumes are generally lower. It appears that the U.S. may go through most of the summer without any major events happening outside the World Cup, Major League Baseball and the tennis U.S. Open. The Fed, under the fresh chairmanship of Kevin Warsh is unlikely to do anything rash. Stocks probably won't turn one way or the other until there's some kind of meaningful change, either in the geo-political sphere or the AI buildout.

The one area which may see movement is in precious metals, which have been surpressed severely since making all-time highs in January. Even a modest rally from current levels could leave gold and silver flat for the year, though still well off the January highs.

At the Close, Friday, July 2, 2026:
Dow: 52,900.07, +594.83 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 25,832.67, -207.36 (-0.80%)
S&P 500: 7,483.24, +0.01 (+0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 23,957.08, +219.90 (+0.93%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1023.96 (+1.97%)
NASDAQ: +535.05 (+2.12%)
S&P 500: +129.22 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: +267.85 (+1.13%)
Dow Transports: +189.28 (+0.87%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Continue to Rally; Futures Race Higher on Employment Data (57,000 jobs in June); Happy 250, America!

With the BLS June Non-farm payroll report out at 8:30 am ET, here's how the major averages have fared over the first three days of this shortened week.

As of Wednesday's closing bell, the Dow is up 429 thanks primarily to Alphabet being added to the index on Monday. The NASDAQ is up 742 points (2.93%), and the S&P is ahead by 129 points. The week is bifurcated, with Monday and Tuesday the last two sessions of the second quarter. Wednesday and Thursday are the first two days of the third quarter and markets are closed on Friday.

Wednesday's mid-day reversal was notable. The Dow had been up more than 400 points by noon, but old off all afternoon to end the session lower. The other indices followed a similar pattern, though the NASDAQ spent almost the entire session in the red. There's a cohort of analysts believing that the third quarter might be a bit bumpy, though their theory, as mentioned in Money Daily on Wednesday, fails to consider that second quarter earnings are expected to be very strong. As earnings reports begin to flow to the street next week, one thing to watch for is selling on strong reports. We've seen this kind of action before, indicative of overall momentum exhaustion and profit-taking at high levels.

Should that kind of action become normative in the early sessions led by earnings, it would offer a clue that stocks are hitting unsustainable levels. May happen, but there's also the distinct possibility that stocks will just continue to surge higher on what's been fairly solid economic data and second quarter earnings.

The June employment report from the BLS showed the country created 57,000 net new jobs, below consensus estimates, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The knee-jerk reflex reaction in the futures market was euphoric, the market once again using pretzel logic to goose stocks higher, the thinking being one of poor employment triggering rate cuts at the Fed to stimulate the economy, the exact opposite of what the expert class had been predicting. In a sense, they're both wrong, as the Fed is very likely to do nothing concerning rate adjustments until after September and possibly through the end of the year.

All stock futures were already higher prior to the BLS announcement, but screamed higher on the release. Oddly enough, precious metals were not unceremoniously dumped, but rather, rallied, with gold up nearly $100, above $4,100, and silver peaking over $61.

There are assorted theories and analyses that rely on government data to reach their conclusions about market and economic activity, many of them slanted by varying degrees on data that is either seasonally adjusted or clouded by assumptions built into models. With the new Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh, these projections and prognostications - many by some of the leading banking and financial institutions - are likely to draw false conclusions because the Fed is returning to a policy that is less open and less accommodating than those of Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, which encouraged front-running and speculation.

The long-standing policy of the Fed through the Greenspan years was more stand-offish and opaque and that's the direction Warsh is moving towards. He's also openly stated that the Fed would seek to move away from reliance on government data in an effort to be better informed on the realities of markets and economics in real terms. Thus, with forecasting policy direction now shredded out of existence, predicting the future of rate movement and general economic activity will be more of what you know rather than who you know. It's a welcome change.

Happy 4th of July, America. 250 years is good enough cause for celebration no matter the economic conditions.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 1, 2026:
Dow: 52,305.24, -13.96 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 26,040.03, -173.69 (-0.66%)
S&P 500: 7,483.23, -16.13 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,737.18, -97.05 (-0.41%)

Stocks Finish on High Note as Second Quarter Closes with Massive Gains; What Lies Ahead May Be a Little More Difficult to Discern

The second quarter closed out on Tuesday, with stocks making some fairly substantial gains, the Dow closing at a record high for the second straight session, the S&P finishing just a few ticks below 7,500, and the NASDAQ gaining more than 1 1/2 percent.

Now that Alphabet Class A Shares (GOOGL) have been added to the Dow Industrials, it's a safe bet that record highs for the 30-stock index will become standard fare. The NASDAQ and S&P have a higher hill to climb in order to regain recent all-time highs. Still, the three major indices put in solid quarters, if only because of the fortuitous timing of President Trump's call for a ceasefire at the end of March, where stocks found a bottom. This made for an easy trade for those with inside information. The massive gains from April through the end of June may be based on suspicious sources.

The Dow was up 15.71% from March 31 to June 30. Over the same time span, the S&P 500 gained 14.87% and the NASDAQ rose 21.41%. Putting those quarterly figures in annualized perspective, the trio would be up anywhere from 60-80%, which would be incredible, especially since stocks are already considered to be wildly overvalued.

Staying with the rigged markets theme, might not July 1 mark the ultimate best time to take profits and skedaddle for the summer? Seems to be a willingness by some parties to angle quarter by quarter as the best means by which to land a whale or two investors. Tuesday's window dressing closes on the majors suggests such a plan may be afoot.

Discontinuing the current rally has many skeptics on watch, though their theory runs up against what may be a propitious period of second quarter earnings reports. There also is the prospect for the resumption of real hostilities with guns and bombs in the gulf region to consider. However, since narrative seems to be all that matters, rallying back to all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P needs to be factored into any trading calculus. As is the usual case, if everybody knew everything that was about to happen, everybody would be rich.

There have been some recent reports of buyer's remorse at the corporate level concerning AI replacements of humans over the past six months or so. A number of high-level managers are suggesting that AI isn't actually doing the job of laid-off, mid-tier employees, the costs savings promised not materializing as suggested. If the disappointment is widespread, it may show up in any number of earnings reports, keeping stocks on a leash through second quarter earnings season. Additionally, there are two FOMC meetings during the third quarter, one on July 28-29 and the later running through September 15 and 16. The impact of the Fed's action or non-action will have profound effects on market sentiment as there's a 66% chance that the FOMC will keep rates at 3.50-3.75% and 33% possibility that they will raise rates to 3.75-4.00% at the July meeting according to CME's FedWatch tool.

While raising the federal funds target rate would have a chilling effect on stocks and bonds, consensus, so far, seems to be in the stand still camp, though September could be of a different mind altogether. Calls for rate hikes on the heels of bad inflation readings through the gulf war scenario are tied to what were higher oil and gas prices, which have now subsided considerably. From a chartist's perspective, the likelihood of a severe stock turndown seems faint, being that the last serious threat to markets was merely three months ago. Middle ground, with stocks gyrating over the quarter might be the correct analysis of what comes next.

With stock futures solidly in the red Wednesday morning, market participants may be waiting for the ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, due out at 10:00 am. There may be cause for celebration or remorse, depending on the report. Manufacturing in the U.S. has been steady for months. June's level may be a non-event.

Heading into the session, Dow futures are down 130 points; NASDAQ futures are falling by 245; and, S&P futures are trending lower by about 17 points. As has been the recent trend, futures have been unreliable in predicting the open market's daily moves. They are not any serious indication of anything. Gold and silver continue to languish, up against inflation and rate hike impetus. Thursday's jobs report is on deck, but there isn't likely to be a surprise as the JOLTS number and this morning's ADP National Employment Report showed private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, a reasonable figure well within consensus expectations.

The answer to the question of whether it's "full speed ahead" for stocks or a pause in the narrative remains a tricky one.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 30, 2026:
Dow: 52,319.20, +136.46 (+0.26%)
NASDAQ: 26,213.72, +393.57 (+1.52%)
S&P 500: 7,499.36, +58.93 (+0.79%)
NYSE Composite: 23,834.23, +31.53 (+0.13%)

Dow Industrials Add Alphabet to the 30 Stock Roster, Dow Jumps to All-Time High as Speculation Remains a Key Driver

Need a boost? Change your socks!

Or, in the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, change your stocks!

The Dow replaced Verizon (VZ) with Alphabet Class A (GOOGL) shares on Monday and the stock added nearly five percent on the day. Conversely, Verizon shares slid by five percent. Dow Jones' sleight-of-hand propelled the Dow Industrials to a record close, while also helping the NASDAQ and S&P regain some of their losses, "some" being the operative word.

Since the start of June peaks, the S&P is down 2.10%, the NASDAQ off by 4.68% as questions concerning the profitability of the AI buildout among big providers like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and others continue to keep tech stocks under wraps, for now.

With just three days left in the holiday-shortened week, the tech threat may give way to employment issues. According to the BLS, total non-farm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May 2026, similar to the gain of 179,000 in April. While those numbers seem impressive, in the know investors understand that the BLS figures are little more than guesses, their monthly and annual revisions reveal a weaker foundation and an agency hell-bent on keeping up appearances. June non-farm payroll closes out the week prior to the market open on Thursday.

As the fragile truce between the U.S. and Iran continues to hold up, oil flows are beginning to improve, though they are a long way from the millions of barrels that flowed out of the Persian Gulf prior to the recent conflict. The MOU has kept the warring parties at bay despite protests from Israel and American neocons. One can never discount enough Israel's dedication to wiping out their neighbors, and that remains a real issue as America heads towards its 250th anniversary of independence.

As the opening ball approaches, stock futures are flat to slightly lower, gold and silver remain under pressure and WTI crude futures are hovering just above $70/barrel.

The "all's well" narrative espoused by the White House seems to have fewer true believers. Wile stocks are not likely to collapse any time soon, a slow bleed after the Fourth of July may be the path of least resistance, with a great deal of confidence riding on second quarter earnings due out in July and August.

Congress, which doesn't do much of anything for anybody but themselves, will be taking their usual month-long vacation in about five weeks, leaving markets to fend for themselves without input from the government. Deficit spending continues to provide capital everywhere its needed. Drifting about may be the ultimate story for the summer months. After this week, there won't be another short trading week until Labor Day.

Awaiting the jobs report and the beginning of earnings season, stocks may have a hard time justifying gains, though there still seems to be no shortage of fun money for speculative bets.

A mixed bag.

At the close, Monday, June 29, 2026: Dow: 52,182.74, +306.63 (+0.59%) NASDAQ: 25,820.14, +522.53 (+2.07%) S&P 500: 7,440.43, +86.41 (+1.18%) NYSE Composite: 23,802.71, +113.47 (+0.48%)

WEEKEND WRAP: NASDAQ, Gold, Silver, Oil Lower; Inflation Fears May Be Overblown; USA's 250th Birthday Approaches; June Jobs Report on Tap

By this time next week, many Americans will be worn out from a celebratory weekend filled with swimming pools, marching bands, hot dogs, hamburgers, and a host of adult beverages.

But first, there's four days of trading ahead.

Stocks

Heading into another four-day week with the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence celebrated on Friday, July 3, the NASDAQ suffered its worst week since "Liberation Day", back in April of 2025. The NASDAQ, led by stocks in the chip and AI tech sectors, were most affected. The index lost 4.6% over the week. The S&P dropped by nearly two percent and the selling seems not to be nearly over.

The Dow Industrials held up much better, actually showing a gain of 0.60% on the week. Investors of all stripes must begin asking tough questions concerning their holdings, not the least of which being at what point does one take profits and wait for better signals, either to the upside or even further down?

Plenty of people in passive holdings like 401k, IRAs, or portfolios with long-term horizons, aren't likely to make rash moves at this juncture, viewing the current pullback little more than an annoyance, after which stocks will return to their usual upward slope. History proves them often correct in that regard.

On the bearish side of the argument are value investors who see valuations on the entire range of AI and chip-related stocks to be at extremes, with a correction or worse to be expected. The kinds of watershed events they envision refer to crashes like 1929, 2000, and 2008, though few have the temerity to step up and play short. Most short-sellers in recent years have been crushed and carried out of their positions on stretchers. Overall, the current conditions remain fluid with an unequal share of potential disasters on the horizon, including resumption of war (Iran), continuance of war (Ukraine), rising unemployment due to deployment of AI in industries ranging from banking to publishing to retail. In the meantime, Wall Street has convinced itself that the Kevin Warsh Federal Reserve is going to raise rates to fend off inflation, though there is growing evidence the recent spate of higher prices at both the wholesale and retail levels was largely a cause of the Middle East disruptions, with energy costs leading the statistics.

Such trap doors and potholes are always around. Most often, markets tend to sidestep or ignore them in favor of stock profits.

With the second quarter coming to a close on Tuesday, June 30, first quarter earnings reports have been all but exhausted. Beginning after the Independence Day weekend, companies will start reporting second quarter results, led by banks and airlines, the week of July 6-12.

A fairly quiet week in terms of economic events is ahead. Tuesday's Case-Shiller housing report and JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday. Wednesday's data includes the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI, the latter being usually more accurate. Weekly energy data from the EIA is also released on Wednesday. The big event will be the BLS monthly employment report for June, though recently, these reports have been discounted with overall U.S. employment sluggish and static. Contrasting with the rumors of rate hikes at the Fed, another weak reading would offer the opposite projection and be cheered loudly by the usual horde of rate-lowering cheerleaders.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00
06/26/2026	3.70	3.70	3.75	3.83	3.89	3.94	3.94

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90
06/26/2026	4.07	4.09	4.12	4.23	4.38	4.87	4.87

Treasury yields continue to trend lower, thwarting the conviction of many analysts who insist the Fed will raise rates to fend off another round of inflation. What they should be more worried about is the continuing growth of the money supply, a condition that the now-less-transparent Fed might deal with without the usual fanfare, though any decisions at the Fed will be slow and careful and not telegraphed to market participants.

The treasury curve is orderly and upward sloping, the era of inversion put well in the past. Spreads - +31 basis points on 2s-10s, and +117 on full spectrum remain within recent ranges. If anything, the yield curve should begin to slope higher or remain roughly the same. There's no signs of panic either from de-dollarization or fear of rising rates and with Warsh committed to keeping his cards close to his chest, a more stable condition is likely to present itself over the coming months.

Truth be told, there's probably a better chance that the Fed lowers the federal funds target rate over the next four to six months rather than raise it. Such a move would steepen the curve and help out the federal government by reducing interest payments, which have ballooned into a major solvency problem.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $70.24on the NY Mercantile Exchange, continuing to price lower on the back of the deal struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. The price of WTI crude was $76.54 the prior week. The parties have been meeting in Geneva, Switzerland over the past week, trying to forge some kind of working framework for the Gulf region that precludes bombing each other.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.88 last week and $3.81 this week, the lowest prices since the war with Iran began more then three months ago.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, a practice that will - or should - reverse once regular oil flows are reestablished, a process that most believe could take months. A somewhat elevated price for oil and gas at the pump may remain in place through the summer months, though certainly not at levels seen during the war/ceasefire period.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.39 (-0.33)
Washington: $5.16 (-0.22)
Indiana (lowest): $3.22
Oklahoma : $3.30 (-0.06)
Mississippi: $3.42 (-0.10)
Florida: $3.78 (+0.18)
Illinois: $4.11 (-0.04)
Pennsylvania: $4.01 (-0.08)
New York: $4.10 (-0.11)
Maryland: $3.74 (-0.06)
Michigan: $4.09 (+0.11)
Texas: $3.24 (-0.16)
Georgia: $3.54 (-0.06)

On Sunday, June 28th, there are eleven (11) states with average prices above $4.00, with 37 below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.45) and Alaska ($4.90), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past five weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.24-3.60) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.50 to $3.64. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

Bitcoin

This week: $60,194.49
Last week: $64,068.87
2 weeks ago: $64,048.96
6 months ago: $87,687.36
One year ago: $107,342.20
Five years ago: $34,681.76

Bitcoin managed to slump once again over the past week, hitting fresh lows in the $58,187 range before rebounding back to current, weak-kneed, levels. The price of a bitcoin at $60,000 is nothing at all special about the mystical pseudo-money that was all the rage just a year ago.

It's lost most of its luster, plummeting by more than half from the early October 2025 peak, down 31% year-to-date and making a five-years-ago investment no longer a double. One might conclude, other than hiding money from authorities (which, incidentally, it isn't very good at), there's no good argument for holding bitcoin at all, especially since the U.S. government - and others around the world - require disclosure on tax forms of any crypto holdings.

Not withstanding bitcoiners penchant for breaking the law when ostensibly, even as Charles Dickens so eloquently phrased in Oliver Twist, "...the law is an ass," of which other assets does the IRS demand an accounting? Baseball cards? No. Cash? No. Gold? No. Silver? Come on, let's get real.

The government wants to know what you're doing out there in crypto-land because it competes with US dollars, and, unlike baseball cards, gold, or silver, it can be tracked, traced, and easily confiscated.

If anybody discovers a good rationale for playing in the crypto markets other than mere speculation, please call 1-800-ImAnAss.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.12; last week: 64.13

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90
Gold price 6/26: $4,103.00

Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38
Silver price 6/26: $59.60

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00
Gold 6/26: $4,089.00

Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65
Silver: 6/26: $59.16

Notably, amid the deconstruction of the gold/silver complex at the hands of the COMEX and LBMA, the gold:silver ratio has sprung higher, posting a figure of 69.12, quite a difference from the last week in January, at silver's peak when the ratio slumped below 50.

With the ratio once again elevated, there are three choices for silver buyers and they are the usual: Buy, Sell, or Hold.

Those with silver in hand have optionality working for them. Considering many have a cost basis somewhere in the range of $10 to $20, holding works well, though both buying and selling can be put into play depending on sentiment and time horizon. One might, for example, choose to sell some of one's holdings if they believe silver's price is to be further eroded, though the proper time for paring down the stack would have been a better prospect four to six months ago.

Buying makes sense should one adheres to the school of thought that the price of silver has over-corrected and is indeed poised for a move higher. Indications from the GSR (gold:silver ratio) are supportive of that line of thinking. Adding, say, 100 ounces to a stack of 1000 with a basis of $17, would move the basis higher, to 20.91 for all 1100 ounces, still highly profitable and even moreso should the price actually rise and hold at higher levels. Similar directional bets can be made with gold, which seems to have bottomed, though one can never be too sure of what the criminal counterfeiters have in mind.

No doubt, precious metals remain overall in a buyer's market, with spot prices the lowest in close to eight months.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	59.60	89.48	74.86	72.35
1 oz silver bar:	67.00	79.00	72.76	72.18
1 oz gold coin:	4228.42	4367.70	4276.97	4266.18
1 oz gold bar:	4246.86	4360.22	4296.73	4283.60

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline, dropping to $73.04 on June 28, a loss of $5.94 per troy ounce, from the June 21 price of $78.98, one of the most severe one-week losses in recent months.

WEEKEND WRAP

The United States has managed to remain an international entity for 250 years, which, to most established nations, would be considered a good start. Despite being somewhat of an adolescent on the global stage, the 250-year anniversary is worth celebrating.

At the Close, Friday, June 26, 2026:
Dow: 51,876.11, -44.51 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,297.62, -60.99 (-0.24%)
S&P 500: 7,354.02, -3.47 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 23,689.23, +78.51 (+0.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: +311.41 (+0.60%)
NASDAQ: -1220.31 (-4.60%)
S&P 500: -146.56 (-1.95%)
NYSE Composite: +189.49 (+0.81%)
Dow Transports: +187.94 (+0.87%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Everything Going Lower as NASDAQ Sees No End to Selling Pressure; Oil Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Treasury Yields All Falling

It's been a rough week all around, but especially for the tech-heavy NASDAQ and the proxy crypto-currency, bitcoin, both of which are down sharply over the last four days, with bitcoin getting hit hardest, dropping as low as $58,187, a number last seen nearly two years ago, early September, 2024.

As for the NASDAQ, another sizable drop today would send it below the June 10 low of 25,169.50, itself the lowest since early May. The setup for stocks through the month of June has been fairly straight forward. Only the Dow shows a gain with just three trading days remaining in the month and second quarter. The Dow holding its own with the NASDAQ melting away may trigger memories of the 2000 collapse, wherein the NASDAQ was beaten down mercilessly while the Dow held up much better in what was then known as "old economy (Dow) versus new economy (NASDAQ). History may be repeating, or, at least rhyming a bit at what appears to have been a significant top for both the NASDAQ and S&P, June 1 and 2.

Friday morning bodes more ills for the NASDAQ and the AI meme in general as it's been reported that Sam Altman's OpenAI plans on delaying its IPO until sometime in 2027. That reportage didn't seem to have much of an effect on futures, which were already down near Friday morning lows. With an hour before the open, NASDAQ futures are down more than 350 points, S&P futures are down around 28, with the Dow futures holding up better, down just 28 points. As time flew by toward the opening bell, futures eroded quickly, all three of the majors hunting lows in the futures market.

For the week, the Dow is up 355 points, the NASDAQ down 1,159 (4.43%), and the S&P is off 143 as of Thursday's closing bell. The trend continues to be dour, after Thursday's hopeful report from Micron Technologies (MU) was dashed early in open trading. While Micron posted a solid gain of some 16%, the NASDAQ, after a positive start, fell into the red within the first half hour of trading and never fully recovered. There's an overwhelming amount of negative sentiment driving what looks like a first piercing of the AI bubble.

Not to be left out, gold and silver have extended the losing streaks which began the end of January. Following two solid years of gains in 2024 and 2025, corrections in both metals were anticipated, but the degree by which they've fallen has gone far past correction into outright bear market conditions.

The questions, if gold and silver are being revalued lower, is how can stocks hold up at all, and why are yields falling if the Fed is poised to raise rates?

Is this the beginning of another tech bust, leading to an overall revaluation of everything to the downside? The other nagging question heading into next week is how much longer the new Warsh-led Federal Reserve will be considered to be hawkish and on the verge of raising rates when most indicators are showing that the recent spike in inflation was caused, directly and indirectly, by the hostilities in the Middle East?

There are more than a few cross-currents, with the downside looking to most appetizing to traders with a pessimistic attitude. All bubbles burst.

This one may have already seen the blow-off top in early June and the declines after that are beginning to pile up quickly.

At the Close, Thursday, June 25, 2026:
Dow: 51,920.62, +71.72 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 25,358.60, -118.03 (-0.46%)
S&P 500: 7,357.49, -0.73 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 23,610.73, +117.17 (+0.50%)

All Systems Go as Micron Technologies and IBM Re-Ignite Chip Sector and AI Race; Gold Silver Boosted by May PCE Index

After Micron Technology (MU) delivered a blowout quarter Wednesday after the bell, and IBM announced a breakthrough chip that measures less than a nanometer, the AI tech space seems to be treating the recent selloff as little more than a valuation hiccup.

Micron (MU) is up 17% in the pre-market, with IBM ahead by more than five percent prior to the cash market open.

IBM's development is truly remarkable:

IBM said the ​0.7-nanometer chip packs nearly 100 ‌billion transistors onto a fingernail-sized surface, about twice the density of its 2-nanometer chip unveiled in 2021, delivering up to 50% higher performance or 70% greater energy efficiency.

A nanometer, by the way, is tiny, microscopic. One inch contains 25,400,000 nanometers, so the conversion factor is fixed: 1 in = 25.4 million nm.

Micron's fiscal third quarter earnings and forecast were eye-popping:

Revenue hit $41.5 billion, well above expectations. Adjusted earnings came in at $25.11 per share. Gross margin reached 84.9%, topping estimates and more than doubling from a year ago.

These events, and the otherwise positive general sentiment surrounding the chip sector has NASDAQ futures up more than two percent (600+ points) Thursday morning. The index has shed more than 1000 points in the first three trading sessions this week, but "Turnaround Thursday" appears to be in the offing as companies and investors continue throwing billions into the high tech AI race.

Dow and S&P futures are also responding positively, the Dow up 125 points and the S&P futures ahead by more than 60.

While there are no guarantees in life or stocks, the overarching tone remains wildly positive. Like Dick Cheney once piping, "deficits don't matter," the attitude today may best be desribed as one of "valuations be damned." Chips and the AI race have dominated markets this year and the trend isn't about to fall off a cliff, as some of the more dour analysts have suggested.

Thus, it's full steam ahead for the sector, pulling the major averages back toward all-time highs.

Elsewhere, in the face of enormous pushback by Israel and neocons everywhere, the nascent peace proposal between the U.S. and Iran seems to be holding up quite well, with cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz unfettered and the U.S. naval blockade all but put to rest.

WTI crude oil has broken below $70/barrel as oil flows continue to improve and the warring parties have chosen a more expedient means by which to settle their differences and divvy up the oil and commodity trade in the region.

Everything is in place for a monster session Thursday, probably extending through Friday and possibly into next week, with the 250th celebration of Independence Day in the U.S. to cap off next week (four trading sessions, markets closed Friday, July 3).

Market euphoria may be spilling over into precious metals. After the BEA released May's Core PCE Index (excludes food and energy) with a reading of +0.3% monthly and up 3.4% annualized, now at the highest level since Nov 2023, silver and gold got a much needed boost after wicked declines over the past month. Silver gained more than two percent, up to $58.70, though gold was still lagging, up less than one percent, at $4,039 per ounce. It may be premature, but both metals may have seen near term bottoms this week.

The PCE Index may appear to be pointing toward more inflation, but insider looks see most of the increases in services rather than good, and, with the price of oil tumbling back toward pre-war levels, the general PCE Index is likely to post a smaller increase than many have predicted. Most of the higher inflation numbers have come within the framework of the Iran-U.S. conflict, but a cessation of hostilities will certainly have a cooling effect.

Stocks open within minutes on Wall Street.

Buckle up.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 24, 2026:
Dow: 51,848.90, +182.06 (+0.35%)
NASDAQ: 25,476.64, -110.40 (-0.43%)
S&P 500: 7,358.22, -7.24 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 23,493.55, +29.92 (+0.13%)

This All Sucks: Rigged Markets, Dishonest Media, Corrupt Government, Power and Internet Outages

A prime example. On Monday, June 22, Alphabet A shares replaced Verizon on the Dow Jones Industrials. 100% move. Rigged game.

He who panics first, panics best. -- Anonymous

Since making an all-time high on June 2nd (27.093.90), the NASDAQ, as of Tuesday's close, is down 5.56%, and that's not even the worst of it. On June 10th, the NASDAQ closed at 25,169.50, about 1.25% lower. Nobody panicked.

Editor's Note: Between a power outage Monday, into Tuesday morning, and the internet connection oscillating between completely FUBAR and intermittent, it's been difficult, to say the least, to post anything relevant. It's annoying, frustrating, and somewhat depressing that these kinds of things continue to happen. I have no idea why, but some kind of change - of service providers or the location of our headquarters - is beginning to look more and more like a necessity. I apologize for the inconvenience. It's taken the heart out of what used to be an enjoyable daily experience. -- Fearless Rick

With the opening bell approaching quickly, stock futures are signaling a better trading session than Tuesday's. Dow futures are down 15 points. NASDAQ futures are ahead by 123, and S&P futures are up 16.

For reasons beyond any reasonable explanation, gold and silver spot prices are plummeting, again. Silver is now less than half of the all-time high reached earlier this year (January) and is currently continuing its overnight slide, down to $58.56. Gold has been sent down to as low as $3,971. Very disturbing, but, that's what one gets for playing with the fire that is real money in a fiat world.

Best of luck. Essentially, all markets are completely rigged by one-percenters and government interventions.

It really kind of sucks.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 23, 2026:
Dow: 51,666.84, -45.87 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 25,587.04, -579.56 (-2.21%)
S&P 500: 7,365.46, -107.33 (-1.44%)
NYSE Composite: 23,463.63, -132.59 (-0.56%)

Stocks Mixed as Markets Eye End of Month, End of 2nd Quarter: Futures Pointing to Massive Tuesday Selloff

The Dow was up and the S&P and NASDAQ down as the month and quarter win down in the final full week prior to a four-day schedule shortened by the 4th of July holiday (observed, Friday, July 3).

Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have proceeded somewhat smoothly thus far, but stock traders are still wary of the tenuous meetings between the parties at odds over a variety of issues, including keeping the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and what to do about Iran's nuclear stockpiles and future plans.

While the Iranians seem keen on reaching an agreement that precludes building a nuclear arsenal, they continue to push for the right to develop domestic nuclear for power generation. They're also not easily persuaded by U.S. demands for inspections, likely preferring a neutral country to keep tabs on them, if any can be found.

What's keeping the NASDAQ from moving forward - at least on Monday - is the AI issue of overspending by companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Apple, on data centers to power the AI buildout. More and more evidence is emerging that massive power plants costing in the billions may not turn out to be profitable ventures. China continues to develop AI models at a fraction of the cost of their U.S. counterparts, a worrying sign for U.S. domestic developers.

It appears that Monday was only a test run for what looks like a more watershed affair. With minutes to go before the opening bell in New York, stock futures are signaling massive declines. Dow futures are down 245 points, NASDAQ futures off a massive 913, and S&P futures down more than 100 points.

The masterminds of collapse didn't forget gold and silver, both of which are down sharply Tuesday morning, reaching levels last seen in November, 2025 on the way up to record levels. This time, the metals have reversed course, and weak hands are shaking.

It's a bumpy ride, for sure. Break out the barf bags.

At the Close, Monday, June 22, 2026:
Dow: 51,712.71, +148.01 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ: 26,166.60, -351.33 (-1.32%)
S&P 500: 7,472.79, -27.79 (-0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 23,596.22, +96.48 (+0.41%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Warsh At Fed Nixes Advance Projections on Rates; Iran and U.S. Getting Down to Negotiating a Lasting Peace; Oil Lower, Gold, Silver Look Like Bargains

Two significant events formed the past week. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chairman of the Fed went smoothly with no change to the federal funds rate and a cool and collected new Chairman nixed all hopes of advance projections by which traders can front-run the Fed. The era of green-lighting or gaslighting is coming to an end, an overall positive for markets.

President Trump managed to extricate the U.S. from its disastrous adventure in the Middle East, with an MOU with Iran delivered at a crucial juncture. U.S. and other developed nations' stockpiles of crude oil and other energy components were running dry and the world faced a real crisis with potentially devastating results. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman outward to the Indian Ocean may avert an oil crunch, though short-term hurdles remain as Iran and the U.S. begin negotiations in Switzerland Sunday.

Stocks managed to eke out gains and the treasury market showed resiliency and perhaps a return to some semblance of normalcy.

The ongoing truce in the Middle East is tenuous and President Trump faces backlash from the AIPAC hordes of neocons in congress and in the media. Given the circumstances, Trump had nothing to gain and everything to lose by keeping the pressure on Iran. A world without sufficient energy flows is a world without commerce. Trump fully understood the dangers of a collapsing global economy and was forced to give concessions to Iran.

Stocks

For the four-day week ended June 18, stocks held their ground for the most part, led by the NASDAQ which gained the most, 2.43%. Difficult to comprehend how the transportation average lost more than four percent on the week, given the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. blockade, lower fuel prices (could be that right there) and fewer constraints on travel and commerce, but that is how these markets roll. The transports, being just 20 stocks, are a volatile bunch.

The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.

Tuesday: (before open) Carnival (CCL), Korn Ferry (KFY); (after close) FedEx (FDX), KB Home (KBH)

Wednesday: (before open) Daktronics (DART), Paychex (PAYX), NovaGold (NG); (after close) Worthington Steel (WS), H.B. Fuller (FUL), Micron Technologies (MU), Trip.com (TCOM)

Thursday: (before open) Winnebago (WGO), McCormick's (MKC), Blackberry (BB), Lotus (LOT); (after close) FedEx Freight (FDXF)

Friday: (before open) Apogee (APOG)

Somewhat of a quiet week in terms of economic events. Tuesday brings forward the S&P Global PMI Flash and Richmond Fed readings. On Wednesday, monthly Building Permits and New Home Sales along with weekly EIA oil and other energy stockpile readings. The Core PCE Index will be front and center on Thursday, offering an updated glimpse of inflation; also, the Chicago Fed reports economic activity and jobless claims weekly. Friday has Retail and Wholesale Inventories and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment poll.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86
06/18/2026	3.69	3.69	3.74	3.83	3.85	3.92	4.00

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97
06/18/2026	4.19	4.19	4.23	4.34	4.46	4.91	4.90

Treasury yields continue to float below recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. Following Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's signal that little to no future guidance would be coming from the Fed, the knee-jerk reaction was to assume higher rates in terms of near to mid phase, despite little other than recent energy inflation to back up that position.

The treasury curve is orderly overall, and rates are stabilizing off the peace deal. Spreads - +27 basis points on 2s-10s, and +121 on full spectrum were markedly lower, suggesting some smooth sailing ahead, at least until the next crisis or the next FOMC meeting, July 28-29. Warsh's steady hand at his initial press conference was a confidence builder. He appears to have some level of reformism in his politics.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121

Oil/Gas

August WTI crude futures closed out the week at $76.54 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, continuing to price lower on the back of the deal struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. The parties are meeting in Geneva, Switzerland Sunday to begin delicate negotiations over nuclear and other pressing issues. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz seems to be re-opening to the free flow of oil and other resources.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.03 last week and $3.88 this week, the lowest prices since the war with Iran began more then three months ago.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control, a practice that will probably continue until regular oil flows are reestablished, a process that most believe could take months. An elevated price for oil and gas at the pump may remain in place through the summer month.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.38 (-0.12)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.36 (-0.14)
Mississippi: $3.52 (-0.13)
Florida: $3.60 (-0.20)
Illinois: $4.15 (-0.19)
Pennsylvania: $4.09 (-0.11)
New York: $4.21 (-0.13)
Maryland: $3.80 (-0.01)
Michigan: $3.98 (-0.19)
Texas: $3.40 (-0.07)
Georgia: $3.60 (-0.12)

On Sunday, June 21st, there are sixteen (16) states with average prices below $4.00, with 32 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.55) and Alaska ($4.99), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.36-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices ranging from $3.56 to $3.78.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,068.87
Last week: $64,048.96
2 weeks ago: $61,809.72
6 months ago: $88,877.88
One year ago: $101,220.00
Five years ago: $32,284.22

Bitcoin's rebound off recent lows seems to have pretty much run its course. There's no momentum to speak of, the only things driving price action are desperate attempts by whales and institutions to keep their losses minimized by bumping the price at regular intervals. Bitcoin, fiction that it is, will likely languish over the coming months, if only because it continues to be one of the worst investments going, down 26% year-to-date.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.13; last week: 62.03

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90
Gold price 6/18: $4,172.90

Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12
Silver price 6/18: $65.38

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23
Gold 6/18: $4,210.00

Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00
Silver 6/18: $65.65

Precious metals remain in a buyer's market, with spot prices falling close to the lowest levels of the year. It's not surprising that gold and silver continue to be beaten down in favor of stocks and fixed income, dividend yielding instruments, the current rationale considers a rate hike by the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, to be nearly set in stone, despite Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh offering no indication of any rate moves, up or down, at Wednesday's press conference.

The consensus opinion of the wisest economists - most of whom work for banks that favor dollar-denominated assets above all else - is that the Fed will respond to the inflation caused largely by rising oil and fuel costs due to the recent Middle East conflict. That thinking may be proven wrong in the immediate future, but only if the shaky peace deal made between Iran and the U.S. holds over the coming weeks and months. Separately, Israel and Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon have declared a temporary ceasefire, though it's well-known that the warring sides could escalate at the drop of a hat, or a bomb or missile, ostensibly from the Israeli side.

Putting aside geo-politics, gold and silver prices should not fall very much further if the spot market is to remain relevant. Central banks in Asia and Europe continue their buying at near-record paces, but the Gulf countries may have recently been selling gold holdings to make up for oil and distillate losses. Should oil markets continue to stabilize, demand for gold may increase, owing to a growing lack of faith in U.S. treasuries.

It needs to be understood that 2024 and 2025 were banner years for both metals and a pullback was a natural occurrence. How much further precious metals will be pressured is a function of the willingness of the LBMA and COMEX to continue their outrageous price suppression tactics, seemingly never to end until the dollar is dust, fiat currencies are extinguished and physical demand flourishes. That may be a long time coming. In the meantime, stocking up at low levels at a regular tempo using dollar cost averaging or other quiet accumulation practices cannot be criticized even if prices continue to trend lower. After all, gold and silver are money, and money in one's own hand is an unbeatable strategy for wealth accumulation.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	72.05	99.00	82.11	79.08
1 oz silver bar:	72.00	89.00	78.28	76.45
1 oz gold coin:	4341.80	4511.80	4409.67	4393.07
1 oz gold bar:	4322.06	4426.02	4365.41	4364.88

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) continued to decline, dropping to $78.98 on June 21, a loss of 97 cents per troy ounce, from the June 14 price of $79.95.

WEEKEND WRAP

Juneteenth came and went without much fanfare, other than people surprised their bank was closed for the day. That kind of thing happens when governments bend their policies toward stupidity. Someday, people will gain enough common sense to throw off the heavy hand of pushy politicians who want to control everything and send you the bill.

At the Close, Thursday, June 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,564.70, +72.15 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,517.93, +496.28 (+1.91%)
S&P 500: 7,500.58, +80.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,499.74, +29.98 (+0.13%)

For the Week:
Dow: +362.44 (+0.71%)
NASDAQ: +629.09 (+2.43%)
S&P 500: +69.12 (+0.93%)
NYSE Composite: -96.05 (-0.41%)
Dow Transports: -958.80 (-4.24%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Unfinished Business: Stocks Seek Reconciliation with New Realities in Persian Gulf and at Federal Reserve; Fighting Between Israel and Hezbollah Escalates

Editor's Note: Forgetting that June 19 is now a federal holiday, I wrote this piece thinking that markets would open at the usual 9:30 am ET. I apologize for forgetting how inclusive the USA has become. Most of the people I know are working and not planning any festivities. Who knew? - Fearless Rick

Wrapping up a truly memorable week, U.S. equity, options, and bond markets appear to have some unfinished business on a quad-witching Friday.

Adjusting to renewed free flow of oil and other essential commodities (helium, urea, natgas to name a few) from the Persian Gulf and the new paradigm lacking forward guidance at the Fed, Friday presents as a day to cash in, cash out, and reposition for what's to come, which, by the current looks of things, is a very speculative bet on the future.

The array options and futures positions in stocks, indices, oil, and other commodities is wide and vast, with winners and losers on both sides of various ledgers. Anybody who was long oil is reaching for the laxatives while shorts are dancing in the streets. Stocks, especially those favored in the chip sector and among the Mag7, may be looking at gains that might have been larger just a few days or weeks ago, and must close out those positions post haste.

Along with stock futures, gold and silver spot prices are reacting negatively to the return to a semi-normal macro condition. There are a variety of views and presumptions about the immediate direction of flows, the predominant one being an adjustment pain period that was held off by the drawdown of crude stockpiles that now looks to tighten considerably after the major powers in the oil patch have played their hands and will be facing shortages over the next few months, suggesting higher prices for crude as countries bid to rebuild reserves.

This is, of course, a short term position. Oil prices will rise, then fall, if the peace at the Strait of Hormuz remains intact. There's a considerable faction thinking that condition will not last long, especially after Israel (the wild card in the process) and Hezbollah engaged in heavy conflict overnight. According to reports, Israel launched missile attacks at various locations in southern Lebanon. Israel remains in its bellicose position and commitment to continued aggression against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and the U.S. apparently has lost control over its proxy, failing to restrain the escalations of Israel. The market is sensing a troubled situation which could derail the fragile peace. Already, Iran has failed ot send a delegation to Geneva, Switzerland for the first round of negotiations. Israel and Hezbollah could scotch the entire process.

Not withstanding the military situation in Lebanon and Israel, traders seem nervous about the entire situation. Unless the proxies of the U.S. and Iran are reigned in, the peace process remains at risk and other factors that have inspired traders to sned stocks to extreme valuations may have run their courses. The AI revolution that has fueled the current rally is cracking, with hyperscaler deals breaking down and questions over the long-term viability of AI business models continue to emerge, with some dour outlooks.

With under an hour to the opening bell, stock futures are collapsing under the weight of dangerous uncertainty and increasing volatility into the quad-witching session. Dow futures are off by 185 points; S&P futures are down 50, and NASDAQ futures are losing 164 points. Gold and silver are also down more than one percent from Thursday's settlement. Crude oil prices are elevated, though not to an alarming degree. WTI is still holding well under $80/barrel.

For the week, as of Thursday's close, the Dow is ahead by 362 points, the NASDAQ is up 629, and the S&P has a gain of 69 points.

The setup for Friday appears to be very knee-jerky and unlikely to be a forecast for longer term outlooks because, if Israel and Lebanon continue to engage, the impact on the flow of oil out of the Gulf may still be minimal. Both Iran and the U.S. are well aware that control of their proxy forces is at best, minimal, so there may be room for understanding and patching up the negotiations, though complete resolution still seems to be a distant hope.

At the Close, Thursday, June 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,564.70, +72.15 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,517.93, +496.28 (+1.91%)
S&P 500: 7,500.58, +80.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,499.74, +29.98 (+0.13%)