WEEKEND WRAP: Iran-U.S. Stalemate Has Brought Oil and Gas Prices Down Though Future Remains Uncertain; Gold, Silver Stuck in Ranges; Employment Numbers Out Friday

As has been the case for weeks, the White House continues to tease peace negotiations with Iran, without any tangible results. The administration continues to reject Iran's various responses and demands with impunity. One would almost believe that the U.S. simply doesn't want to make a deal or come to any kind of semi-permanent structural agreement with Iran, the U.S. faction always backpedaling to cries of "Iran can't have a nuclear weapon!"

Not wishing to be swayed by U.S. demands, the Iranians continue to harp on about sovereignty, rights, and obligations to their people concerning enrichment of nuclear material which they do not desire to relinquish. That appears to be the main sticking point, neither side seemingly incapable of making concessions on the issue.

So, that's the way it's likely to stay, neither side giving in; the Iranians having a degree of control over what passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Americans having some control over what continues through the Gulf of Oman and into the Indian Ocean via their blockade. Both sides appear content with that arrangement, for now.

The standoff could extend much further into the future than most analysts believe. It is n't hard to imagine the U.S. and Iran remaining in a long-lasting feud stretching past the midterms and into 2027. From a historical perspective, that is exactly what should happen. There was a war, however short and brutal, that is merely suspended by a tenuous ceasefire. Both sides continue to take potshots and random attacks, falling short of anything that would trigger a resumption of full military action. The U.S. can't get its navy close enough to Iran's shoreline to affect any kind of military retreat and Iran has essentially no navy or air force by which to wage an oceanic confrontation. The U.S. lacks the willingness to attempt a ground invasion and has no place safe enough to assemble the necessary force in advance of an invasion, besides it being a suicide mission.

That's the nutshell version. There's certainly more going on behind the scenes that neither side is willing to disclose publicly, but, considering the logistical implications, countries highly dependent on imported oil from the Middle East will find themselves short-shrifted and facing rationing and shutdowns of industry. The U.S. doesn't care. They have all the oil and energy resources they need. Iran does as well. Nothing in the calculus of the global energy infrastructure is going to change the situation in any reasonable manner.

There will be crisis management in most countries at some level, but, there's still enough oil coming from other places to compensate. The U.S. is more than willing to sell oil to anybody, even China, for instance, and they've managed ot keep prices in the U.S. at somewhat manageable, though high, levels.

Two things for certain about the end game: Inflation and slower productivity, perhaps recession in many countries all within the same time frame. Play on.

Stocks

Another banner week for stocks sent the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P to record levels.

There's so much loose money afloat that any thoughts of shorting the market or seeking a dip by which to buy in seem like pure pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams. Profitable trades are turned right back into more speculation and momentum-building. With gold and silver stalled at fairly high levels and treasuries becoming an orphan to the system, stocks are actually a reasonable place to invest, if one can hold one's nose long enough to discourage thoughts about valuations and fundamentals.

It's a party so long as the government continues its runaway deficit spending and the Fed doesn't push back hard against rising levels of inflation. The Shiller PE ended the week at 42.66, the highest level since April, 2000, and the second-highest on record. Anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention to this measure can clearly understand the mechanism by which stock markets are functioning, highly-inflated valuations serving a momentum trade for the ages. All indications are pointing to higher stock prices amid an inflationary environment that is setting people's hair on fire, in grocery stores, gas stations, and just about everywhere else.

It's not going to stop until it does. The trick is to get out somewhere near the top because history teaches that there will undoubtably be a top, followed by a massive unwinding. Bear with it.

The week ahead brings more stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results. The focus will be mostly on Dollar General on Tuesday, and Macy's on Wednesday. Lululemon will get some play from the trendy workout apparel crowd Thursday.

Monday: (before open) SAIC (SAIC); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo (CRDO)

Tuesday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Donaldson Filtrations Sstems (DCI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) PicPay (PICS), PetMeds (PETS), Gitlab (GTLB), Paloalto Netowrks (PANW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)

Wednesday: (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Macy's (M), Ollie's ((OLLI), THOR (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Petco (WOOF), Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD)

Thursday: (before open) Brown Forman (BF.B), Ciena (CIEN), Toro (TTC); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU)

Friday: (before open) ABM (AMM)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Highlights include Tuesday's JOLTS (job openings), ADP's Private Employer Report for May on Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts and the Fed Balance Sheet on Thursday, and the May Non-Farm Payroll release prior to the market opening Friday. Non-farm payrolls for May 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with consensus estimates around +60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate likely remaining near 4.4%, with the analyst range between zero and +95,000.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99

Notes and bonds were bought last week, bringing down yields while spreads remained well within current ranges. 2s-10s widened slightly to +47. The 30-day-30-year full spectrum spread narrowed to +127. These reflect very manageable conditions for banking interests, though hardly of a nature suggesting rapid expansion of lending. Spreads remain a bit tight, though they are a vast improvement from the post-Covid era, 2021-23.

The next FOMC meeting being the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, June 16-17, will be supplied with enough employment, wage, and inflation data (CPI, PPI) to formulate a rational policy which would likely feature the beginning of a hiking expedition to tamp down the inflation genie, which has surely escaped from the bottle. Warsh is keenly aware of this and will suffer the president's displeasure if he so chooses to go the "Volker" route. President Trump would prefer he stand down and allow inflation to take off. The stock market gains and inflated figures across the government data sets make him look good.

Something is going to go snap unless Warsh does the right thing and ignores the politics, a tall order.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127

Oil/Gas

Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict and no notable supply disruptions, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $87.76, down sharply from last Friday’s New York closing price of $97.00, which seems, on the surface, insanity, but is actually somewhat logical.

Nearly 25% of daily output is being cut off at the Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean. Oil prices on the global setting have risen from the 60s to the 90s, a gain of somewhere in the range of 33%. It's just makes sense to frame the disruption in this manner, as opposed to panic pricing in the $120-150 range. It's holding for now because traders do not want to get caught with too large a position either short or long as the futures market has been bounced around like a tennis ball at Wimbledon the past few months.

While the price of WTI crude has kept in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's move below that level indicates that markets and traders are satisfied that any crisis has been averted and there's still enough - despite reports of dwindling stockpiles - to remain somewhat stable, for now. There is no certainty regarding a final outcome, so it's just simply day-trading, complete with wrinkles and nuances.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.29 this week, a significant change.

Somehow, the powers that be have managed to keep prices at the pump out of crisis range. Americans, having been through gas price hikes in the recent past, know how to adjust, and, with summer driving season dead ahead, expect more "close to home" vacations this year and maybe even some mention of the loathsome "stay-cations" which require no travel and no gas, spending that spare change on better eats and home-grown fun. Might not be so bad.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.02 (-0.08)
Washington: $5.72 (-0.06)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.77 (-0.20)
Mississippi: $3.84 (-0.11)
Florida: $4.03 (-0.34)
Illinois: $4.74 (+0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.15)
New York: $4.50 (-0.07)
Maryland: $4.16 (-0.33)
Michigan: $4.26 (-0.28)
Texas: $4.77 (-0.25)
Georgia: $3.80 (-0.16)

On Sunday, May 24th, there are fourteen (14) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 34 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($5.20), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past two weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $73,835.71
Last week: $76,800.00
2 weeks ago: $78,015.76
6 months ago: $85,807.97
One year ago: $104,494.50
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Look at those numbers. Bitcoin as an investment is just plain horrible. There seems to be no reason whatsoever to hold this vaporous "asset" (using the term very, very loosely in this instance) for any longer than it takes ot dispose of it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.30; last week: 59.73

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90

Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94

Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27

Gold and silver spent a third straight week rotating around a range of recent lows, gold at $4,500, with silver at $75, strangely suspicious prices suggesting these are key levels for derivative traders in futures markets wishing to contain prices of currencies alternative to the U.S. dollar.

While it is perfectly not all right to suppress competition, that's what the COMEX and LBMA does, and has done for the past 50-odd years, and there's little reason to believe they won't continue the practice, pretending that regional markets - with regional pricing mechanisms - in places like Shanghai, St. Petersburg, Dubai, and Singapore don't exist.

Those markets do indeed exist, though for casual buyers and stackers in the Western world, they are largely unreachable, and, for all practical purposes, useless. It would make little sense to transport small amounts of precious metals to markets in search of better prices unless those prices were significantly higher. A five dollar deviation in the price of silver or $100 in gold is not incentive enough to move physical metal.

Given that gold and silver have recently reached levels only dreamt about in years past, taking some profits at this point might not be such a bad idea, but only if one has sufficient metal in storage at the end of the day, a firm rationale for re-investment of any returns and a tax strategy. For those playing by the rules, such action would incur a high capital gains tax burden - a 28% hit in most cases - since gold and silver are treated as collectibles by the IRS.

That particular kind of IRS rule-making garbage is reason enough to hold onto gold and silver until either the IRS disappears or the U.S. government loses the ability to track and control money flows. Don't hold your breath waiting. Since gold and silver are thus encumbered by tyrannical government edicts, the obvious choice is to keep those assets close at hand and quietly pass them on to the next generation or use them as currency in surreptitious manners. Who knows, maybe your favorite plumber, electrician, gardener, or mechanic would like to add a little to his or her stack.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	100.00	87.03	86.00
1 oz silver bar:	75.00	122.01	91.23	81.92
1 oz gold coin:	4587.64	4887.05	4760.76	4760.05
1 oz gold bar:	4670.25	4785.40	4740.98	4739.95

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dipped modestly, to $86.55, a loss of 90 cents from the May 24 price of $87.45 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Election politicking may actually be beneficial to the American people. With the Republicans in power, they have a vested interest in keeping inflation somewhat under control, so they're hell-bent on doing whatever it takes to keep inflation down until November. After that, most senators and house representatives will care less, likely much less. Whether they are able to thread the needle between high prices and a stalled economy is the big question. So far, they seem to be succeeding.

At the Close, Friday, May 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,032.46, +363.49 (+0.72%)
NASDAQ: 26,972.62, +55.15 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,580.06, +16.43 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,292.17, -10.10 (-0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +452.76 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: +628.65 (+2.39%)
S&P 500: +106.59 (+1.43%)
NYSE Composite: +66.42 (+0.29%)
Dow Transports: +642.90 (+3.10%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Dow, S&P, NASDAQ All Close at Record Highs Thursday; Buffett's Buy of Macy's Turning Heads; Dell Reports Blowout Quarter, Sends Stock Soaring

With just one more trading day in the week and the month, the advantage of owning equities appears unshakable.

For the week through Thursday's close, the Dow has added 80 points but is also at a record high. The NASDAQ is up 573 points (2.18%) in just three sessions, and the S&P 500 is ahead by 90 points (1.21%). All in all, index funds continue to look like the proverbial cat's meow, even with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine and high inflation in the U.S.

As of Thursday's close the Shiller PE stands at 42.55, just more then 1.5 points from the all-time high of 44.19, set back in December 1999. Without taking into account the nuances of computing the Shiller PE (aka CAPE) and its 10-year earnings structure, the S&P would have to gain another 250-300 points to break the record, or, a record high close to 8,000 on the 500-stock index. Considering the degree to which stocks are currently in favor, that doesn't seem too far-fetched, despite the absolute bubbliest overview. A target of 8,000 on the S&P might be sometime between late July and early October, conveniently just in time for the midterms.

It was recently exposed that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had taken about a 1% stake in the quintessential retail chain, Macy's (M), which also owns Bloomingdales and an impressive real estate portfolio estimated at around $3 billion. Buffett may have made the call on this himself, which adds to the intrigue.

On the surface, the Macy's purchase seems to be a pretty shrewd move. The fact alone that Buffett sees value will draw in more investors, pushing the stock higher. Buffett will no doubt continue buying in measured fashion or possibly tender a buyout offer and take the company private under the Berkshire Hathaway umbrella. With the current market cap just above $5 billion, Buffett could offer $10 billion or more without batting an eyelash. He has a war chest of nearly $400 billion on hand, so it wouldn't be a significant move. Macy's could be sold out with a share price of $40 or higher. It's a pretty safe bet, plus, there's the annual dividend of 77 cents per share and a PE ratio kicking around 9 or 10.

Retail has been whipsawed in recent years due to trends toward e-commerce and the lackluster reputation of many regional malls. Macy's owns a load of properties and they're undergoing a major restructuring, closing many of under-performing stores while adding new initiates to those kept open. Retail hasn't been announced dead and buried. It may be just hibernating through a tech winter. People still like the idea of hands-on shopping, especially for apparel, an area in which Macy's excels. There's a lot to like in Buffett's bold move. He and his company haven’t invested in a retailer in about 60 years. The timing and strategy seem elegant with a tinge of contrarianism.

After the close on Thursday, these companies announced first quarter results:
Costco (COST) - small EPS miss, same-store sales up 6.6%, stock down less than 1% pre-market
AutoDesk (ADSK) - beats on revenue, EPS, investors not impressed, shares down 7%
Gap Inc. (GAP) - big EPS miss sends shares down 15%
Dell (DELL) - blows away estimates, stock up 35% pre-open

A little deeper look at Dell's outrageous rise this morning reveals record revenue of $43.8 billion, up 88% year over year, record diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.24, up 282% year over year, and record non-GAAP diluted EPS of $4.86, up 214%, record first-quarter cash flow from operations of $4.1 billion. The company benefitted from a close association with President Trump and this week, the company was awarded a $9.7 billion Pentagon contract to provide a suite of software to the U.S. military.

While Dell's results reek of insider activity and self-dealing, there's nothing fake about banking enormous profits. There is likely to be some pullback following the initial euphoria from this blowout quarter, though the stock could rampage higher, given current momentum. One-day gains such as this are truly astonishing and aligned entirely with Trump's vision of a growing U.S. tech base. Whatever comes of it, this will be the headline going into the weekend, suggesting massive gains to close out the week and the month.

As the opening bell approaches, futures ar higher, though uneven. Dow futures are up 115 points, S&P futures gaining 6-10 points, while the NASDAQ lags, up only 20 points after its big run-up Thursday.

With President Trump nixing the latest peace offering from Iran, once again on the nuclear issue, the rhetoric doesn't change from the hope and fear that's been narrated from the White House for the past month. The situation in the Middle East remains in doubt, seemingly suitable to institutional investors. Who knew that uncertainty would drive markets higher?

Gven the chokehold Iran and the U.S. have created over the flow of Persian Gulf oil, it's astonishing to see WTI futures ranging lower, around $87 per barrel prior to the opening bell. Meanwhile, executives at Chevron and ExxonMobil are warning about extremely low inventory levels. The U.S. strategic reverses are being drained, gas prices reamin stubbornly high (national average $4.37). Something has to give, or, maybe not. The stalemate could continue for months given the vagueness of the ongoing peace/war process.

None of this has helped precious metals, with both gold and silver trading near recent lows; gold around $4,500 and silver in the $75 range. Stocks are moving higher and treasury yields have dipped below 4.50% on the 10-year and 5.00% on 30-year bonds.

The weekend and June dead ahead, end-of-month window dressing is on the menu to close out a solid week on Wall Street.

At the Close, Thursday, May 28, 2026:
Dow: 50,668.97, +24.69 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: 26,917.47, +242.74 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: 7,563.63, +43.27 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 23,302.26, +35.20 (+0.15%)

New Highs on Dow, S&P, NASDAQ; 1Q 2026 GDP Steady at 1.6%; Durable Goods Jump 7.9%; PCE Index Up 4.5%; Retailers Mostly Post Strong Earnings

Stocks made another move slightly higher on Wednesday. Against a backdrop of rising inflation and renewed attacks by the U.S. against Iranian targets in the Gulf of Hormuz, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all closed at record highs.

The euphoria may be wearing a little bit thin as stock futures heading into Thursday's session were trending lower, though release of GDP and Capital Goods Orders sent futures higher after 8:30 am ET. Any losses in the indices are likely to be short-lived as the rally has not been negatively affected by either geo-politics or domestic data.

Thursday morning brings a handful of useful data, led by the monthly PCE Price Index, second estimate of first quarter GDP and Durable Goods orders. Labor gets numbers from the weekly jobless claims.

Real GDP was unchanged from the initial estimate of 1.6%, and, according to the BEA:

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.5 percent in the first quarter, revised down 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4.5 percent, the same as previously estimated, and the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 4.4 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point.

Durable Goods Orders were an out--of-the-park hit:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased $25.5 billion or 7.9 percent to $346.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 1.3 percent March increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 8.1 percent. Transportation equipment, also up two consecutive months, led the increase, $23.1 billion or 21.5 percent to $130.9 billion.

Weekly initial and continuing unemployment claims were static, with the latest initial claims figure at 215,000, well within the current range.

First quarter earnings continue to trickle forward. After the close Wednesday, these companies reported:
Salesforce (CRM) - earnings beat, $3.88 adjusted vs. $3.12 expected, dull forecast, shares down less than 1%
HP (HPQ) - EPS beat, Dell merger dead, shares slip 2% pre-market
Marvell (MRVL) - earnings in-line, revenue up, forecast boldly positive, shares drop 3%

On Thursday, before the open,
Hormel Foods (HRL) - earnings beat, forecast confirmed, stock jumps 4-5% pre-open
Kohl's (KSS) - narrower than expected loss send shares soaring 18%
Best Buy (BBY) - Solid top and bottom line beats, shares up 9-10%
Burlington (BURL) - Meets expectations, forecast weak, stock down 10%
Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Strong 1Q translates into 18% gain pre-market

Wall Street, largely giddy over the morning's data drops and corporate earnings, continues to pile into stocks willy-nilly. a host of retail investors and skeptics continue moaning about high valuations, but the real money isn't holding back.

Heading toward Thursday’s open, futures have flattened out, gold and silver are lower, oil steady at around $90-91 and bitcoin continuing to drop, below $73,000 earlier this morning.

With institutions calling, "everybody into the pool; the water's fine," is this time, with stocks at record highs, the right time to take the leap? The right time was six months to a year or two ago, but retail is always the last to know and the last to move. When retail, always late to sense the obvious, does finally relent and join the party, then will be the correct time to take profits.

Until then, onward and upward.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 27, 2026:
Dow: 50,644.28, +182.60 (+0.36%)
NASDAQ: 26,674.73, +18.55 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 7,520.36, +1.24 (+0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,267.07, -28.43 (-0.12%)

Back-and-Forth With Iran Continues as NASDAQ, S&P Make Records; Oil Tumbles; Gold, Silver Lower; Dick's Down On Earnings Miss

After a long weekend of back-and-forth, peace or war rhetoric with Iran, the U.S. decided to take "defensive" action by bombing the port of Bandar Abbas in southern Iran, near the Straight of Hormuz around midnight Monday.

President Trump had already warned Iran that the alternative to accepting a peace plan would foment more destruction. The president also insisted upon the U.S. taking control of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium, scuttling the hopeful deal that has been in negotiation for the better part of three weeks.

The heinous tactic of the U.S. - promise, promise, negotiate, escalate - has grown old. The U.S. citizenry has caught onto the rogue, barbaric teasing and attacking, calling the other side out for violations of the ceasefire and negotiating in bad faith. Somehow, the mainstream U.S. press continues to overlook the obvious.

Whether it be war of peace, Wall Street appears to be satisfied with either condition. While the Dow on Tuesday dropped back from its record high, the NASDAQ and S&P each ended the session at record closing levels. The Shiller PE rose to 42.32, continuing a ramp-up that has risen relentlessly since January of 2023.

Some first quarter company results were announced Wednesday morning prior to the open:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - EPS of 1.47 boost stock 7%
Bath & Body Works (BBWI) - Sales topped estimates, stock up 11% pre-market.
Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) - Foot Locker acquisition turns positive, but company short on earnings, shares down 2%

After the close Wednesday, Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), and Marvell (MRVL) report. On Thursday, before the open, Hormel Foods (HRL), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), and Burlington (BURL) highlight the earnings parade.

Stocks are looking for a positive start Wednesday morning. Dow futures are up 75 points; NASDAQ futures are adding 205; and S&P futures are up 19 a half hour before the bell. Precious metals are taking their usual mid-week beating with gold at $4,430 and silver at $74.36.

WTI crude oil had risen above $94 on Tuesday, but is currently leveling off just above $88.

Give peace a chance?

At the Close, Tuesday, May 26, 2026:
Dow: 50,461.68, -118.02 (-0.23%)
NASDAQ: 26,656.18, +312.21 (+1.19%)
S&P 500: 7,519.12, +45.65 (+0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 23,295.50, +69.75 (+0.30%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Iran 'Deal' Remains In Focus at White House; Gas Prices Stabilize; Four-Day Trading Week Upcoming; Stocks Gain, Oil Range-Bound

With everything on hold over the Memorial Day weekend according to the latest tweets, truths, and messaging from the White House, a positive vibe seems to be the dominant expression, with a "solution" being suggested by politicians and the media.

A subtle shift is taking place, one in which "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon" is being replaced with "we must open the Strait of Hormuz." The president is on his back foot in terms of negotiating power, and the very real possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen with only a commitment from Iran that they will continue to "negotiate" over the nuclear issue.

Such an outcome would give the president two things he sorely needs: a near-term win, lowering the price of oil and gas; and, time to set the agenda through the midterms, with the possibility of resuming hostilities after the elections.

This agenda would likely be positive for stocks and fixed income, considering that the government might find it within its best interests to lower the price of gas at the pump (buy votes) and have Trump and the Republicans appear as heroes and deal-makers. While one can't make this stuff up, politicians believe they can and will likely try.

Good luck.

Stocks

The week just past was solidly positive for industrials and only marginally appealing to tech. The Dow was up well more than double that of the S&P in percentage terms, and held a five-fold edge over the NASDAQ. The Dow made all-time closing highs on Thursday and again on Friday, with the other indices within spitting distance of their record highs.

Bubble markets being what the name implies, there's little doubt as to the direction of all stocks. The piling on and crowding of trades is nearing an "all in" condition, which is the normal set-up for a rapid correction, though that moment still seems far away. Momentum and political ties will take stocks higher unless something disruptive and unexpected - a black swan - occurs. With the government's near-complete control of the media narrative, even nuking New York City would probably be spun as a positive development, sending stocks even higher. There's no fighting it. Nobody wants protections. Puts are pretty cheap because they usually end up at zero come maturity.

The week ahead offers only a few stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results with the focus on retail:

Tuesday: (before open) Elbit Systems (ESLT), AutoZone (AZO), Champion Homes (SKY); (after close) SilverCorp Metals (SVM), Box (BOX)

Wednesday: (before open) Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Bat & Body Works (BBWI), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS); (after close) Salesforce (CRM), HP (HPQ), Marvell (MRVL)

Thursday: (before open) Hormel Foods (HRL), Kohl's (KSS), Best Buy (BBY), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Costco (COST), AutoDesk (ADSK), Gap Inc. (GAP), Dell (DELL)

Friday: (before open) BitFuFu (FUFU), Knot Offshore (KNOP)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Here are a few relevant data drops for the four-day week ahead:

Tuesday brings the back-dated S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, Wednesday has the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Johnson Redbook Index, and the ADP weekly Employment numbers. Inflation is on review Thursday with the monthly PCE Price Index and employment gets numbers from the weekly jobless claims. Thursday will be notable for the second estimate of first quarter GDP and Durable Goods orders. Friday provides the Goods Trade Balance, and Retail and Wholesale Inventories.

The outlook for weeks and months ahead are cloudy, as the political levers being pulled relate significantly to inflation, employment, and making new all-time highs in stocks. Every move higher in stocks has to be questioned from a fundamental standpoint. The U.S. cannot continue to price stocks in bubble-land. Valuations are material; prices, ephemeral.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07

Yields fell overall this week for maturities longer than five years, though not substantially. The 30-year bond yield has held over five percent for two weeks running. While interest rates are assumed to have something to do with the Middle East conflict, they have more to do with general U.S. monetary policy, which is still considered to be very loose, the government continuing to borrow and raise the overall debt to nearly $40 trillion.

It doesn't go unnoticed that U.S. debt to GDP is 137% while Russia's is 14%. After a while - a condition currently underway - lenders to the U.S. are demanding higher returns and the reserve status of the dollar is in severe decline. The dollar index has wavered between 96 and 101 for the past year, but it's down substantially since January, 2025, just prior to Trump's inauguration, of 110.

Erosion of confidence in a reserve currency is not something that happens overnight unless it is caused by government dictate or devaluation. The long term trend remains to the downside as the reality of inflation ramps up. Another financial crisis could take the DXY to below 70, at which point the U.S. goose may be fully cooked. It's somewhat heartening that the free-spending U.S. government has managed other keep some buyers of its debt happy, but the costs are enormous. Interest on the debt is likely to become the largest expenditure - it's already #3 or #4, behind medicare/medicaid, social security, and the military, depending on the upcoming 2027 budget, which is soon to be negotiated.

While the president may wish for lower interest rates, wishing would be the appropriate term, as there is little to appetite at the Fed - even with the changing of the guar from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh - because inflation numbers continue to rise. Ending the Iran conflict would be a short-term patch, as the latest CPI and PPI inflation figures were tied, in large part, to oil and gasoline. Bringing down those prices are high on the president's agenda and could influence upcoming FOMC policy.

For now, however, 4.50% on the 10-year note and 5.00% on the 30-year bond are appearing as bottoms. The White House, stuck between surrender of principles in the Middle East and rampaging inflation at home, will likely make the political decision to back down on demands against Iran and get the gas at the pump price down. Midterms are less than six months away and a chorus of Republicans up for re-election are piping their tune directly into President Trump's ear.

Spreads took a bit of a breather from the high end, with 2s-10s dropping to +43 and the 30-days-30-years full spectrum dropping six basis points to +135, though the potential for spreads to run hotter is, at the same time, beneficial to banking interests, but harmful to the currency, as yield gains would likely occur at the long end of the curve under current and expected conditions.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135

Oil/Gas

Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $97.00, 101.16, down from last Friday’s New York closing price of $101.16, though remaining in the recent range of $90-110. Supposedly, resumption of regular flows from the Persian Gulf would clip the price per barrel by $15-20, perhaps more, depending on the strength of commitment on both sides of the conflict to adhere to general outlines.

Over the Memorial Day weekend, word continues to emanate from Trump Palace that negotiations with Iran are proceeding and nearing a conclusion, a draft proposal acceptable to not just Iran and the U.S., but to other countries in the region. This same game continues to play out, with hopes dashed on a regular basis and the price of oil rising again. To Trump's credit, he's kept the price in a range that isn't too damaging to U.S. consumers.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.50 this week, no change.

Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear and the politicians are acutely aware of that.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.10 (-0.03)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.02)
Mississippi (lowest): $3.95 (-0.01)
Florida: $4.37 (+0.17)
Illinois: $4.61 (-0.01)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.57 (-0.01)
Maryland: $4.49 (+0.04)
Michigan: $4.64 (-0.19)
Texas: $4.03 (+0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (0.00)

On Sunday, May 24th, there are just five (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, same number as last week, with Indiana replacing Texas, 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.68) and Alaska ($5.32), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $76,800.00
Last week: $78,015.76
2 weeks ago: $80,800.68
6 months ago: $88,321.30
One year ago: $108,096.50
Five years ago: $34,592.16

Any purchase of bitcoin since mid-November, 2024 - a period of 18 months and counting - has resulted in a loss if still held today. This artificial currency is worth cow turds. Ask a car dealer if they'll take a bitcoin for a new Ford F-150 or a bank to use your bitcoin as a down payment on a house. The answer will be the same: convert it to U.S. dollars and you've got a deal.

Why bother, when just holding cash for the last 18 months would have saved money. Thanks to inflation, bitcoiners are losing purchasing power on a regular basis and that subtraction is gearing up to be even worse.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.73; last week: 59.75

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74

Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48

Silver and gold finished out the week nearly unchanged, though both metals experienced considerable, range-bound volatility. Gold traded as high as $4,598 and as low as $4,453. Silver hit $78.88 and bottomed at $73.06. There are opposing forces tugging at precious metals. With interest rates on the rise, some investors might opt for the 4+ percent return on treasuries or corporate bonds. At the other end, inflation erodes purchasing power, making PMs an obvious choice for wealth protection. In addition to the usual strangulation tactics in COMEX futures, these forces are keeping PMs stuck in a range, for now.

Premiums are still at high levels for physical with bullion (bars), charging higher as opposed to specie (coins). The usual spread between bars and coins has shrunk considerably to a point at which they are nearly equal, around $200 per ounce. The spread on silver has regularly favored bars, premia now roughly higher by $4-5.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	76.77	105.00	85.46	84.00
1 oz silver bar:	79.00	112.50	90.61	89.72
1 oz gold coin:	4660.50	4775.96	4722.68	4727.61
1 oz gold bar:	4700.91	4755.50	4717.93	4710.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose modestly, to $87.45, a gain of 37 cents from the May 17 price of $87.08 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Happy Memorial Day. Summer approaches post haste. Keep your friends close and your powder dry.

At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2026:
Dow: 50,579.70, +294.04 (+0.58%)
NASDAQ: 26,343.97, +50.87 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 7,473.47, +27.75 (+0.37%)
NYSE Composite: 23,225.75, +98.07 (+0.42%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1053.53 (+2.13%)
NASDAQ: +118.82 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: +64.97 (+0.88%)
NYSE Composite: +436.32 (+1.87%)
Dow Transports: +633.23 (+3.15%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Stocks Gain on Deal, No Deal Momentum; Friday Looking to Close Out Good Week to the Upside; Mentions of AI in Quarterly Reports Boosts Share Price

No deal.

Oh, well, at least the Dow finished Thursday's session at a record closing high and Nvidia was down less than four points after disclosing first quarter 2026 results. Overall, a this was to be expected, with the totally fake media saying Iran and the U.S. were close to a final draft, which, for all intents and purposes, is an oxymoron. It's a draft, a framework. There's nothing final about it and that alone should have tipped off anybody who is fluent in the English language (about 8% of the U.S. population) that the whole thing was cooked up by the usual suspects on Wall Street and inside the Beltway.

Everybody else was fooled, again, and again and surely will be fooled the next time imminent peace or a resumption of the war is touted as imminent.

For the week, through Thursday’s close, the Dow is up 759 points, the NASDAQ has added only 68 points, and the S&P is up 37. Obviously, with a three-day weekend ahead, nobody wants to see losses on the Friday session, making Thursday evening an ideal time to announce that the Trump administration has agreed to award $1 billion to International Business Machines Corp. (BM) to build a foundry for producing quantum computing chips, part of a broad strategy to bolster US leadership in an emerging industry.

Yippie! The government investing in one of the Dow stocks. That is just so democratic and free market oriented that American taxpayers must be on board with this episode of Winning Big Business while the rest of America can just GFY. These continuing investments by the federal government into mega-corportions are nothing short of full-blown fascism, which, broadly defined, is the co-mingling of government with big business. Next thing you know, the Mango Mussolini will impose martial law, cancel elections (Why not? They don't work anyway.) and declare himself dictator for life.

Yes, you peons, GFY.

With that, less than an hour before Friday's opening bell, Dow futures are up 330 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 110, and S&P futures are higher by 28. Treasuries are taking a breather, with the 10-year yield down to 4.55% and the 30-year posing 5.08%. Regardless of the slight downturn in yields, gold and silver can't catch a bid, both down less than one percent Friday morning.

After the bell Thursday, these companies reported 1Q earnings:
Deckers (DECK) - Beat the Street, initially soared, pre-market down 1-2%
Workday (WDAY) - Tops earnings forecasts, cites AI as profit driver, stock up 6-7%
Ross Stores (ROST) - Solid quarter, shares up 4-5%
Lionsgate (LION) - Studio turns profitable, shares ahead 3-4%

Friday before the open:
BJ's Wholesale (BJ) - Hikes membership fees, profit up, shares down 3%
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) - Appropriate stock symbol, earnings miss, mentions AI, stock up 7%

Everything is well positioned for another solid day of stock slinging. Happy Memorial Day, peons. GFY.

At the Close, Thursday, May 21, 2026:
Dow: 50,285.66, +276.31 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: 26,293.10, +22.74 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,445.72, +12.75 (+0.17%)
NYSE Composite: 23,127.69, +105.95 (+0.46%)

No Deal with Iran Sends Futures Lower, Oil Higher; Nvidia Fails to Impress; Walmart Slips, Ralph Lauren Soars; Bot Replacement Surgery Now a Concern

Based on some dubious reportage that Iran and the U.S. were near finalizing a peace "deal" Wednesday, the Dow Industrials shot up past 50,000, the NASDAQ gained nearly 400 points, the S&P ended a three-day losing steak with a 79 point gain, and WTI crude futures fell to a low of $97.36 per barrel.

In other words, nothing new.

Insider Washington and Wall Street continue to play this kind of Kabuki theater to move markets hither and fro while nothing actually changes day-to-day. The repetitive pattern of hope for a more permanent peace beyond the current ceasefire and fear that one side or the other will restart hostilities have become so predictable that they are now ingrained into the toolkits of portfolio managers and shrewd speculators.

There's money to be made on both sides of a trade and somebody's surely making it, most likely the usual suspects inside the Beltway and the huge brokerages in lower Manhattan. That's not to say that the blatant media propaganda machine is somehow evil or guilty of bad behavior, rather, it's readily apparent that just about everybody is willing to play the game and go along for the ride.

What used to be a market based on honest facts, fundamental calculations, and practical reasoning has taken on the worst features of a roulette wheel or crap shoot. For those who have followed markets for longer than the past few months, it's become tawdry and tiresome. There is no specialized skill required to make profitable trades. It's become as easy as buying the latest tech buzz or hottest ETF and riding the wave to prosperity without so much as knowing of what a certain stock or fund does. Simply buying an index fund at any level is almost assured to return a healthy profit in a short period of time. Stocks cannot be allowed to decline very much under these conditions because denting the narrative is off limits. Everybody goes along to get along.

Outside of the knee-jerk reactions to the tariff imposition on "liberation day" and the start of the military conflict in the Mideast, there hasn't been any kind of correction on the major indices in more than three years, a condition that seems unlikely to change any time soon.

After the smashing close Wednesday, Nvidia released earnings for the latest quarter, and, despite the usual hype and positive returns, investors appear content to take profits and buy back in on any dips. After all, the stock just made a new all-time high last week and was up more than 20% year-to-date, so why hold on when there are other trades available. The stock doesn't pay any reasonable dividend. Surely nobody is going to fret over missing out on the laughable dividend yield of 0.02% (yes, you read that right).

Also posting quarterly returns were Intuit (INTU) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), the former (INTU) dropping more than 16% after announcing layoffs of 17% of its workforce, the latter (URBN) losing about two percent pre-market after beating the street.

Thursday morning brings earnings numbers from the following:

Walmart (WMT) - Shares are off 2% or more pre-market after the retail giant reported stronger sales but warned that high gas prices would cause consumers to pull back.
John Deere (DE) - Earnings beat easily, but company sees farm sales slipping, stock down 2-3%
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) - The company reports best sales growth in five years, re-affirms forwad guidance, shares up 6-7%
Ralph Lauren (RL) - Retailer exceeds 2026 sales goals, boosts divident 10%, shares flying, up 12% pre-market

The latest results suggest that there is a bifurcated social structure, with premium consumers having no urge to cut back on anything (Ralph Lauren), but a stressed middle and lower class consumer that is pulling in the reins (Walmart) and fixing or repairing what they already own (Advance Auto).

The trend that began more than a year ago - the top 10% of earners carrying the retail load - is magnified under the current regime. Most Americans can barely make ends meet and are carry high debt loads. The top 10% are spending as they please, with no worries, though the emergence of AI into the equation may begin to change the dynamic. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, it's middle management and grunts being laid off, but more and more people with high-end skills - coders, lawyers, accountants - are feeling AI heat. The message, "learn to code" is being replaced by "learn to weld" as physical skills are more immune to AI replacement. It's the planners, thinkers, and tinkerers at the fringes that are now being targeted for bot replacement surgery, aka, layoffs, buyouts, and early retirement.

With te market set to open within half an hour, Dow futures are down 155, NASDAQ Futures off 170, and S&P slipping 29 points, all of which fell sharply when the prospective Iran-U.S. deal was revealed to be dead in the water. Precious metals are down as well, with gold and silver each dropping less than one percent. As expected, WTI crude oil futures are back up above $100/barrel.

Treasury yields are lower, with the 10-year at 4.57% and 30-year bonds at 5.12%.

Are you not entertained?

At the Close, Wednesday, May 20, 2026:
Dow: 50,009.35, +645.47 (+1.31%)
NASDAQ: 26,270.36, +399.65 (+1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,432.97, +79.36 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,021.74, +224.07 (+0.98%)

Day-traders Rejoice as Market Turns in Predictable Ways; Stock Futures Higher; Oil Down; Interest Rates Remain Higher; 10-year 4.65%; 30-year 5.18%

Get ready.

Just in case anybody believed that three straight closes in the red on the S&P (down 150 points) was significant, consider the recent pullback nothing more than profit-taking by big moneybag holders of important stocks.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures are flying higher, based on (choose one, multiple, or all)...

• Thomas Massie lost his primary in Kentucky
• Trump's Indian Ocean naval blockade intercepted more tankers
• What happens in China stays in China
• AI, baby!
• Interest rates are coming down (LOL)
• Nvidia's earnings after the close
• Inflation is only 3.5%
• Republicans will keep majorities in the House and Senate
• MAGA
• Trump gloating over primary wins

The root causes for stocks to accelerate into stock market heaven don't really matter. All that matters is the perception - as in the housing boom of 2006-07 - that stocks never go down. Or, at least they don't stay down for long.

Earlier this morning these companies reported first quarter results:

Target (TGT) - Huge top and bottom beats, stock down 3.5-4% pre-market
Lowe's (LOW) - Beats expectations, shares down 2%
TJX (TJX) - Earnings beat, soft outlook, shares higher by 3.5%
Hasbro (HAS) - In line or better, stock down 3% (up 18% YTD)
Analog Devices (ADI) - Tops estimates, upgrades outlook, down 1%

Stock futures are beating a path to an upside open. Dow futures are up 180; NASDAQ futures 200 points higher; S&P futures up 27. Gold and silver are posting gains, but everything is beginning to slip as the opening bell is lass than half an hour away. Crude oil is lower, at $101 and change. 10-year yields are at 4.65%. 30-year yields, 5.18. We are to believe those are stabilizing.

It's a day-trading paradise!

At the Close, Tuesday, May 19, 2026:
Dow: 49,363.88, -322.24 (-0.65%)
NASDAQ: 25,870.71, -220.03 (-0.84%)
S&P 500: 7,353.61, -49.44 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 22,797.67, -102.90 (-0.45%)

President Trump's Inside Trading Is Criminal and Impeachable; Trump Warns Iran, Again, with Social Media; Americans Crushed by Inflation

President Trump issued his usual Monday morning threat to Iran in hopes that he and his cronies could make more money trading stocks and oil futures.

This behavior is completely undignified and, honestly, insulting to anybody with at least two brain cells to rub together.

President Trump deserves to be in prison, not in the White House. He is leading America to its ruin, likely by design, while looting the treasury and making billions via insider trades.

It was revealed yesterday that Trump's investment advisors made at least 3,700 trades in the first quarter of 2026 including companies the White House had touted or whose executives Trump dined with at the White House months ago. Trades were made in Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, Boeing, Intel, and many others. The complete filing can be viewed here. [PDF]

Traders considered the sheer number of trades to be outrageous, especially for a sitting president. The White House denied that the president had anything to do with the trading which is handled by an investment advisor at the Trump Organization.

It's apparent that President Trump is making loot from his own actions. Some of his trades were in Intel, the company that the U.S. government had taken a 10% equity position recently and which Trump had publicly praised, urging people to "buy Intel."

This kind of behavior is insidious and indicates that the president, who is likely to be impeached in 2027, cares more about his bank account that he does for American citizens who are being quickly reduced to peons by inflation and the Mideast situation which the president initiated on behalf of Israel. The likelihood of Republicans holding majorities in the Senate and House is slim to none. The party of sitting presidents has lost seats in the House in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections. Trump is setting himself up for failure, knowing full well that even if he is impeached, the consequences will be nothing more than a bad reputation and a slap on the wrist.

Trump has enough money to retain the best lawyers against any actions that may come in the near future, and, at 79 years and counting, he's probably not very concerned about jail time.

In addition to the outrageous number and dollar amounts of his trades, which amount to billions, the Trump family also operates companies in the crypto space, which Trump has openly touted to the general public. His sones, Donald Jr. and Eric, have enriched themselves in various crypto ventures based on reputation and alignment with the White House, leaving many loyal suckers investors holding the bag after the insiders cashed out.

Others close to the president, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who hold no official office but serve as the president's preferred negotiators and advisors, no doubt have benefitted from inside, advance knowledge of White House policy.

No proof is needed to publicly indict these miscreants. Their arrogant actions speak for themselves. U.S. courts of law will probably choose to sidestep any issues as the broken two-tiered justice system routinely avoids charging public officials for any wrongdoings, even the most obvious and egregious.

Congress is not to be overlooked. Insider trading on public policy has been widespread for decades. Most politicians at the federal level enter office as upper middle class "servants" and leave, decades later, as multi-millionaires. It's disturbing, mob-like behavior for which the general public pays a heavy price for trusting them in the first place.

Entering Tuesday's gala trading session, WTI crude oil traded above $104/barrel on Monday and is approaching that level again. Stock futures are lower, as are gold and silver (no surprise there). Yield on the 10-year note is 4.62% with the 30-year bond yielding 5.14%.

Nice con job operation. Be a shame if anything should happen to it.

At the Close, Monday, May 18, 2026:
Dow: 49,686.12, +159.95 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 26,090.73, -134.41 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 7,403.05, -5.45 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 22,900.57, +101.14 (+0.44%)

WEEKEND WRAP: American New Normal Emerging with $100 Crude Oil, $5.00 Gas, 4-5% Inflation, 5% Interest Rates and Volatile Stocks Near All-Time Highs

Following President Trump's rather fruitless trip to China and with zero resolution to condition in the Middle East, stock traders cashed out their options and sent stocks reeling on Friday, wiping out what looked to be another positive week on the maligned market for equities.

Also pertinent was the disdain for U.S. treasuries, especially on the long end with 30-year yields rocketing past five percent and 10-year yields spiking above 4.50%. Those represent starting points for Kevin Warsh's reign as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, starting June 1 and operationally serve as useful fodder for Trump's insistence for lower rates. Bond vigilantes are likely in broad disagreement, setting up some fireworks in the usually staid world of fixed income.

With oil flows still disrupted, the questioning public may query Big Oil and the government about why the U.S. exports oil at profit instead of serving the public interest by shoring up domestic supply, keeping the price of gas at the pump and in heating oil at sustainable levels. The cynical - and probably correct - answer is that the entities in control of U.S. energy supplies couldn’t care less about the needs of the citizenry.

Getting ever closer to a FU moment in the U.S., many patriotic serfs are gravitating away from the status quo, shedding political cover and moving closer to local and individual needs. Fiefdoms and regional warlords could become real things.

Last week's CPI and PPI readings were the worst in years, proving, once again, that central planners at the Fed and in the Treasury Department have their heads stuck firmly in the grips of their own anuses, a preferred position, it appears.

Moving on...

Stocks

Gains were completely wiped out by Friday's market dump, which looked very much like a rug-pull moment, but is not likely to be sustained. Wall Street, profitable on both sides of trades, does prefer gains over losses and all a deep dive does is put in place a rationale for buying the dip and sending stocks higher amid shouts from the Boaster-in-Chief about being the "hottest" (tell the truth, don't you hate when he says that?) economy in the world.

The week ahead will offer a piddling of dated first quarter results from suspect retailers and others. Since it's nearly June, these announcements will have little impact on current levels, as an economic shift is underway, but, here they are:

Monday: (before open) ReNew Power (RNW), Baidu (BIDU); (after close) Agilysis (AGYS)

Tuesday: (before open) Home Depot (HD), Vertiv (VRT); (after close) Toll Borthers (TOL), Red Robin (RRGB),

Wednesday: (before open) Target (TGT), Lowe's (LOW, TJX (TJX), Hasbro (HAS), Analog Devices (ADI); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), Intuit (INTU), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), John Deere (DE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Ralph Lauren (RL); (after close) Deckers (DECK), Workday (WDAY), Ross Stores (ROST), Lionsgate (LION)

Friday: (before open) BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

The outlook for the week ahead is clouded, to say the least. The ancient adage, "sell in May and go away," may be appropriate.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/10/2026	3.67	3.69	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.72	3.70
04/17/2026	3.69	3.70	3.73	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.64
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/10/2026	3.81	3.80	3.94	4.12	4.31	4.89	4.91
04/17/2026	3.71	3.72	3.84	4.04	4.26	4.85	4.88
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12

Interest rates (yields) shot straight up late this week, the continuation of a trend that began in early 2022, at the end of the covid fright and start of the Ukraine fiasco when the Federal Funds target rate had been slashed to near zero. The evolving global economy necessitated rising yields to slow runaway inflation and that trend will likely be exacerbated by continuation of military escapades and choking off of supply chains.

Amid a frightening and increasingly-polarized global economic oulook, lending money to the heavily-indebted U.S. government at any maturity longer than a year might raise the question of "return of equity" bayond the usual "return on equity."

At 10 years, a reasonable expectation might be in the range of 5.50-6.25% and beyond that for 30-year bonds, which may be nearing an extinction level event, precipitating the need for false-fronting "stablecoins" which are nothing more than currency chimeras and utterly worthless.

Rates sprung forward over the past week, with a spike of 19 basis points in 2-year notes, 21 on the 10-year and 17 on the 30-year sending spreads into the stratosphere, with 2s-10s at an even +50 and full spectrum topping out at a ghastly +141.

While certain borrowers may drool over the lavish boosts in yields, longer term trends suggest an unhappy ending with the journey to insolvency a minefield of failed policy and nervy speculation. For the U.S. and other debt-laden governments, the costs of servicing their bloated borrowings will outstrip all other expenditures, guaranteeing the ultimate default. Argentina has shown the way. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will precede the U.S. down that unhappy pathway.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $101.16, higher substantially from last Friday’s New York closing price of $94.68, though still in the recent range of $90-110.

President Trump's wasted China visit late in the week sent stocks lower and oil prices higher. With no resolution in the Middle East, the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran may move in unanticipated directions. With Iran in control over the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. naval blockade further out in the Golf of Oman and into the India Ocean, it should be expected that alternative routes will develop and they have, with Iran employing the Caspian Sea and rail routes east to Pakistan and China. Eventually, Iran has an upper hand, given that the number of oil tankers exiting the Persian Gulf outnumbers U.S. ships able to intercept them.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.48 this week, little changed. Americans increasingly are begrudgingly accepting their fate of higher gas prices, but are beginning to express displeasure with government policies, feeling the weight of their chains, so to speak. Intentioal or otherwise, the federal government and many states and localities are pressuring middle and lower-income families, stretching household budgets near breaking points. Unless the president changes course soon or congress gets off their lazy, overdeveloped rumps, the likelihood of mass civil disobedience increases.

In the meantime, Americans, having been through gas hikes and energy crises before, are adjusting and conserving wherever possible, though further increases in food and energy prices may be too much too bear

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.13 (-0.01)
Washington: $5.76 (+0.00)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.95 (+0.03)
Florida: $3.17 (-0.25)
Illinois: $5.05 (+0.09)
Pennsylvania: $4.62 (-0.05)
New York: $4.58 (+0.03)
Maryland: $4.45 (-0.01)
Michigan: $4.83 (+0.12)
Texas: $3.92 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.96 (-0.07)

On Sunday, May 17th, there are just four (5) states with average prices below $4.00 (Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia, up from 4 last week, and 43 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.65) and Alaska ($4.26), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past week as the averaging right around $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin (aka, Trash)

This week: $78,015.76
Last week: $80,800.68
2 weeks ago: $78,694.80
6 months ago: $90,089.49
One year ago: $103,298.00
Five years ago: $37,482.21

"Hodlers" of six months to a year are down sharply, with only deep thinkers like Michael Saylor keeping the faith. With the U.S. congress moving forward on the CLARITY act this past week, the tom-foolery approaches the highest level of clown world. Cynthia Lummis, junior senator from Wyoming, otherwise known as Cheneyland, leads the charge toward government sponsored CBDCs.

From Wikipedia:

Lummis graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Bachelor of Science degree in animal science in 1976 and a Bachelor of Science in biology in 1978. She graduated from the University of Wyoming with a Juris Doctor in 1985, and was on the dean's list. She worked as a student teacher at Rock River School in 1977.

The perfect choice to sponsor crypto legislation.

What the world needs is a new currency regime based on gold and silver, not vaporware cryptocurrencies. Guess which one the government favors most. The people operating the govenment are about as useful as an umbrella during a hurricane.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 59.75; last week: 58.68

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 4/17: $4,849.40
Gold price 4/24: $4,725.40
Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60

Silver price 4/17: $81.58
Silver price 4/24: $76.19
Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 4/17: $4,833.56
Gold 4/24: $4,709.27
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72

Silver: 4/17: $80.75
Silver 4/24: $75.63
Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94

On Friday, with stocks hammered within the international geo-political stalemate, it made perfect sense for precious metals to take sizable losses. Actually, no. The LBMA/COMEX cabal complex continues operational, suppressing prices, albeit at higher levels than years prior. Taking everything into perspective, gold and silver may continue to be affected negatively if stocks continue to vacillate and national economies begin to falter into recession.

The alternative - converting to fiat - is not very attractive, though selling off part of one's stack for ready cash may prove to be prescient. On the other hand, precious metals are meant to be hedges against currency debasement and all manner of economic events. How one manages one's wealth all depends on personal perspectives, portfolio allocations, and investment horizons. To each his own, it seems, riding the waves in the economic lifeboats of choice.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	78.95	99.59	87.01	87.48
1 oz silver bar:	80.00	92.25	86.44	87.38
1 oz gold coin:	4736.77	4859.65	4776.06	4771.83
1 oz gold bar:	4716.01	4785.00	4742.79	4742.30

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell modestly, to $87.08, a decline of $1.59 from the May 10 price of $88.67 per troy ounce and within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

An inclination to utter cynical or pessimistic phrases to describe current economic conditions may be a sign of extreme dissatisfaction and completely normal. Disruptions to the regular flow of goods, services and the normal functioning of national economies has been fomented by reckless and feckless leadership of Western nations, especially in the United States.

It's perfectly OK to occasionally utter "screw this" or "F them" in response to conditions created to subjugate the human race in favor of a handful of elitists with megalomaniacal intentions.

If so, you've got plenty of miserable company.

At the Close, Friday, May 15, 2026:
Dow: 49,526.17, -537.29 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,225.15, -410.08 (-1.54%)
S&P 500: 7,408.50, -92.74 (-1.24%)
NYSE Composite: 22,799.43, -302.42 (-1.31%)

For the Week:
Dow: -82.99 (-0.17%)
NASDAQ: -21.94 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: +9.57 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: -142.72 (-0.62%)
Dow Transports: -64.56 (-0.32%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Trump China Trip Produces Little in Terms of Resolution to Iran or Taiwan; Stock Market Sniffing Out America's Weaknesses; Oil over $100

Trump's China trip is over, with nothing substantial coming from it. There was some talk about a deal for China to order 200 planes from Boeing, and possibly as many as 750, though details were sketchy, like everything else Trump touches and touts as wins.

The trip was a PR stunt from the start and Wall Street has apparently sniffed it out and is in the process of selling the news after buying the rumor. The president brought an entourage of large tech company CEOs with him, an attempt to woo China towards more support for American companies breaking into the vast Chinese market. The effort seemed to go well on the surface, but beneath the sheen, nothing of consequence has been reported. It's likely that China was simply being polite to the U.S., rather than pressing hard on various issues.

China's president Xi did manage to sneak in some snark, suggesting that America was a declining nation. Trump scrambled to find a retort via social media, once again blaming Joe Biden and his administration for America's decline and stating once again that the U.S. is the "hottest" country on the planet. The rhetoric has grown cold and stale and fools nobody.

Thus, stocks are set to open Friday with a very downbeat tone and bond yields have broken out to the upside as investors demand more for their money.

Up until Thursday's closing bell, stocks were doing just swell. For the week, through Thursday, the Dow was up 454 points, the NASDAQ ahead by a whopping 388, with the S&P adding 102.

With options expiry on Friday, there's certain to be a good degree of volatility though nothing has really changed in the overall market structure or global geo-politics. The Strait of Hormuz remains a choke-point for oil. Ukraine unresolved, inflation headed higher in the U.S.

Yield on the 30-year bond has burned through the five percent line and the 10-year yield stands at 4.56%, suggesting that bond buyers are affirming the existence of much higher inflation in months ahead.

While the set-up for Friday looks threatening, with Dow futures down 435, NASDAQ futures off 495, S&P futures giving back 86 points, and WTI crude futures hitting $100 this morning, there isn't any apparent sign of a rug-pull moment, though everybody knows it's overdue. Insiders need to keep stocks rising, but there are only so many suckers and profit-taking may render any dip-buying a moot point.

At the Close, Thursday, May 14, 2026:
Dow: 50,063.46, +370.26 (+0.75%)
NASDAQ: 26,635.22, +232.88 (+0.88%)
S&P 500: 7,501.24, +56.99 (+0.77%)
NYSE Composite: 23,101.85, +128.29 (+0.56%)

Stocks Continue Higher Despite Inflation Terror; Trump's China Gambit a Ruse; Rug Pull or Maybe Not?

So much for Wall Street coming to its senses over inflation.

After Tuesday's CPI showed consumer inflation increasing at a 3.8% annual rate and Wednesday's April PPI shoving the inflation agenda further up the chain with this sobering comment from the BLS...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

... stocks opened to the downside but continued rallying the rest of the session after the big money guys had a goo 15-minute laugh. Shorts, as usual, were carried out on stretchers after one of the more quintessential head fakes in recent days. While the Dow and NYSE Composite finished in the red, their hues were more like the blush of a pink rose than fire truck tone by the end of the session.

More and more money flowed into tech stocks with the NASDAQ and S&P indices posting record highs. The Shiller PE ended the day at 42.32.

There isn't even a hint of pullback or correction in the charts or the general optimism. Stocks have to go up. The stock market is about the only thing on which the president, Republicans, tech bros., and the MAGA folks can hang their hats. Everything else, from Iran to inflation, to employment has, or is about to go tits up. Despite the continuing destruction of the empire, stocks save the day, every day, and will be expected to do so until there comes a rug pull, or, possibly, forever.

With the 30-year bond yielding 5.03% for two days running and the 10-year note yield stuck at 4.46, the perception is that stocks have become essential to survival. Yields go up, bond prices go down. Investors are finally demanding consummate return on their long-term risk profiles. The only surprising thing about five percent on the 30-year is that it's taken so long to get there.

The U.S., via its best carnival barker's tweets and threats, on the surface appears to be doing just fine. A peek under the hood, so to speak, reveals busted pipes and a sputtering industrial motor that's low on oil and in need of massive repair. Major infrastructure in the U.S. is aging and hasn't been sufficiently upgraded in decades. Asian countries are advancing. The West, ever so slowly, is committing suicide by a thousand cuts.

As the opening bell approaches, the Washington/Wall Street narrative seems to be holding. After all, isn't the president in China, telling Xi Jinping and anybody within earshot what a great poker hand he's playing? Bluffing won't work with China... or Russia... or even Iran. There are a lot of undercurrents advancing on the stock con. The U.S. stopped issuing a public measure of the underground economy in the 1980s. This laughable article estimates it at five percent of GDP in the U.S. when it's probably more like 25%, especially considering the GDP numbers are largely government spending and full up on pork and bunk. During the prohibition era of the 1920s, the underground economy was larger than the "above-board" official economy.

Governments everywhere, at the local, state and federal level, need to institute more new taxes and raise rates on those that already exist to see just how compliant Americans might be. Sooner or later, milking the same cow without offering it better feed ends up dry well. It will give, right up until it doesn't.

Run more deficits, borrow more money, abuse the population. FAFO.

At the Close, Wednesday, May 13, 2026:
Dow: 49,693.20, -67.36 (-0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,402.34, +314.14 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 7,444.25, +43.29 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 22,973.56, -41.79 (-0.18%)

Trump In China for PR Stunt; No Major Developments Expected; Stocks Reel as PPI is Highest in Three Years; Futures Tanking, Oil Rising

President Trump has arrived in Beijing Wednesday morning for his engagement with President Xi Jinping of China. The trip will be short, just two days - May 14 and 15 - with a loaded agenda. Among relevant issues the two leaders will discuss are the Iran war, the state of affairs concerning Taiwan, bi-lateral trade agreements, and a host of other tangential topics for discussion.

How anybody can take seriously a two-day "summit" stretches credulity to the breaking point. The usually-suspect American angle is to play up progress via tweets and TB coverage which will no doubt lean toward the positive. The last meeting between China and America's heads of state produced a tariff truce, which actually had Mr. Deal, President Trump, significantly backing off from a hardline stance.

One notable element is the U.S. delegation, including top executives from some of the most powerful - and mainly tech - U.S. companies.

The business delegation is supposed to include executives from Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Boeing (BA), GE Aerospace (GE), Meta Platforms (META), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Micron (MU), Mastercard (MA), Qualcomm (QCOM), Visa (V), Cargill, Coherent (COHR) and Illumina (ILMN) in part or in whole. Cisco (CSCO) was invited but its CEO is not attending, along with NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.

With Iran high on the Trump-Xi agenda, another conspiracy theory became conspiracy fact. Interesting article on climate change and weather modification used as an offensive weapon against Iran for years violating a long-standing climate treaty.

With Trump winging his way to talks, stock investors looked to April PPI, coming fast on the heels of Tuesday's CPI hot inflation reading of 3.8%. What they got from the BLS was an outright disaster.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.4 percent in April, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.7 percent in March and 0.6 percent in February. The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

Nearly 60 percent of the April rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.2-percent advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods moved up 2.0 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.6 percent in April, the largest advance since rising 0.6 percent in October 2025. For the 12 months ended in April, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 4.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 4.5 percent in February 2023.

At the producer level, these price movements have been trending higher for months, though neither the Fed, the White House, or the major news media seem interested in reporting the galloping inflation facing U.S. consumers. However, Wall Street took notice, sending stock futures screaming lower on the release of the data.

With the opening bell less than an hour ahead, Dow futures were slashed 258 points, NASDAQ futures were up 63 points, but well off earlier highs, and S&P futures were beginning to tank, down a mere points, but trending lower.

Wall Street can manage to overlook or spin data in a myriad of ways, but it appears that few appreciate higher consumer prices and producer costs. While America heads for a Weimar moment, President Trump is doing nothing to alleviate the situation, preferring to put on a media show via a high-level confab with the greatest nemesis to the U.S.

Little, if anything is expected from the two-day visit as there were no advance preparations to speak of and the short time element suggests that Trump's visit - much like everything else the "peace president" cooks up - is nothing but a PR event.

Along with stock futures, bitcoin is headed lower Wednesday morning while WTI crude oil edges higher, sitting at $102/barrel. Precious metals are pretty much flat, with silver holding $86 and gold dropped below $4,680, but recovering.

Time to find solutions is running short for President Trump in hotspots like Iran and Ukraine. He continues to lose support of MAGA faithful and independents, unsurprising given his attitude and adventurous antics which have largely caused chaos around the world and rapidly-rising inflation in the United States. While Trump may continue to insist that the U.S. is the "hottest" country in the world, he would do himself a favor by not making that claim too loudly or too often because the American people have had it up to their eyeballs with a president that has broken campaign promises, enriched himself and his co-conspirators, and is making a mockery of presidential leadership.

If there's a trend developing at all, it is the American public's distaste turning to righteous anger against a president that was a lame duck the moment he won his second term of office and Wall Street is beginning to take notice.

At the Close, Tuesday, May 12, 2026:
Dow: 49,760.56, +56.09 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 26,088.20, -185.92 (-0.71%)
S&P 500: 7,400.96, -11.88 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 23,015.35, +44.58 (+0.19%)

CPI Comes In Red Hot, Inflation Rising at 3.8% Annually; Trump, Republicans Likely to Lose Midterms, Won't Matter to Wall Street; Silver Breaks Out, $93 Next Target

U.S. midterm elections are November 3rd. That date deserves attention as the calendar puts us at less than six months away.

Individual winners and losers in the bi-annual popularity contest may not matter as much as which party will have a majority in the House and Senate, and, in the end it's one big uni-party, from a tactical perspective inside the D.C. beltway, the results offer more than just optics. Partisan politics being the preferred order of the U.S. system, policy will emerge from majority rule and chair positions on important committees.

According to reportage by The Conversation, the party holding the presidency has lost seats in 18 of the last 20 encounters, an eighty-year span beginning in 1946. For the MAGA cohort, this sends bad vibes which may result in Mr. Trump's third impeachment attempt by Democrats, though the most salient condition obtained from Republicans losing their razor-thin majority in the House is that any new or proposed legislation would likely be dead on arrival.

A flip in the House also neutralizes the Senate, no matter which party ends up with a majority. For U.S. business interests, this is a total win. Whenever official Washington goes into gridlock, the prospect of at least two years without government meddling into the affairs of companies large and small elicits loud howls of joy. If new highs on the stock market are a goal, vote Democrat!

The only times a sitting president's party gained seats were in 1998 (Clinton, +5) and 2002 (Bush, +8), back-to-back wins, one for each party. In those years, the presidential approval rating was exceedingly high. Clinton was at 66%, Bush at 63%. Since then, no president has polled higher than 45% heading into midterms (Obama, first term, 2010). For all the noise and clamor over the upcoming vote, it looks to be pretty much settled that Republicans are doomed. President Trump's most recent average approval rating is a meager 41% and the generic congressional vote favors Democrats over Republicans, 48.6%-42.6%.

Doomsday cometh.

Surprising nobody, the White House and the Republican election machinery is fully engaged toward reversing the trend, but it seems a fool’s errand. Unless economic and foreign policy conditions soon change radically, Democrats stand to turn the tables in November.

Shiller PE: 42.15

Roughly speaking, the S&P 500 would need to rise another 285 points in order for the Shiller PE to surpass the all-time high of 44.18. Given that the S&P is already up 567.34 points (8.29%) year-to-date one might assume that this particular "mother of all bubbles" would make the grade some time within the next few months.

The juggernaut that is the stock market seems to have no limit, no wall of worry to climb, and not much in the way of historical perspective. Because that record high occurred in December of 1999, market historians will note that in the first few months of 2000, the NASDAQ took an abrupt turn. The late 1990s and into the first three months of 2000 marked a period of rapid growth in U.S. technology stock prices, driven by speculation and heavy investment in startups with little to no profits.

Somewhat the same could be said of the current environment. Where the 1990s had the internet boom and dot-com stocks, the 2020s has embraced AI as the next great thing. Leading tech companies - Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Google, Apple, et. al., are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, infrastructure, and power plants, bent on riding the crest of the AI wave.

There will be no stopping stocks reaching record after record over the next six months and probably further into 2027. Despite plenty of evidence that the U.S. economy is a running on fumes. Foreign policy under Trump has been an unmitigated disaster. Wall Street doesn't care, so long as more money is directed into stocks, ETFs, IRAs, retirement accounts, and mutual funds.

Inflation, as measured by the CPI, will fan the flames even more. Asset inflation always leads consumer inflation, and this time is no different. Tuesday morning, the BLS released April CPI. Here's what they said:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, after rising 0.9 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for over forty percent of the monthly all items increase. The shelter index also increased in April, rising 0.6 percent. The index for food increased 0.5 percent over the month as the index for food at home rose 0.7 percent and the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April. Indexes that increased over the month include household furnishings and operations, airline fares, personal care, apparel, and education. Conversely, the indexes for new vehicles, communication, and medical care were among the major indexes that decreased in April.

The all items index rose 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending March. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the year, following a 2.6 percent increase over the 12 months ending March. The energy index increased 17.9 percent for the 12 months ending April. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

The major damage from Trump's blustering and blundering in the Mid East, all at the behest of his pal, Bibi Netanyahu, hasn't even begun to be assessed. The knee-jerk reaction comes in the form of stock futures, which didn't skyrocket the moment the news was announced as they usually do, but barely budged. Some indication that Wall Street isn't exactly giddy over prospects for higher and higher consumer prices can be inferred and a mini-rally in gold and silver offers more evidence that the ongoing rally may be interrupted for a day or so.

Gold hit a one-month high on Monday, but silver was the real deal, making a breakout move over 80.70, the most recent high (April 17). Kitko marked the close in New York at 85.98, though other sources have it at 86.10. Either way, the move was expected and significant, pointing the silver price - as maligned and testy as it is - toward the next milestone, $93, and then, beyond. With the usually strong summer months in focus for precious metals, a slingshot move higher may now be in the cards. Both gold and silver sold off overnight, but th pair is rallying heading into the U.S. sessions.

As 9:00 am ET approached stock futures began moving higher, sending Dow futures marginally into positive territory. S&P futures remained subdued, down 20 points, while NASDAQ futures seek a pullback, down 218 heading toward the opening bell.

There were no big interests reporting earnings late Monday or early Tuesday, though hims|hers (HIMS), purveyors of questionable adult products like virility enhancers for men and perfumed soaps for women, went flaccid, dropping 16% pre-open on a first quarter earnings miss and discouraging guidance. Sorry, honey, not tonight.

Silver miner, First Majestic (AG), continued strong performance with an earnings beat and solid guidance. The stock is flat heading into the open. On an earnings beat and raised guidance, JD.com (JD) wins the morning, up about one percent in pre-market trading.

The CPI reading may only disrupt money flows for as little as a few hours or possibly a day or two, as PPI is the next hurdle, the April figures due out tomorrow.

Otherwise, buy the dip?

At the Close, Monday, May 11, 2026:
Dow: 49,704.47, +95.31 (+0.19%)
NASDAQ: 26,274.13, +27.05 (+0.10%)
S&P 500: 7,412.84, +13.91 (+0.19%)
NYSE Composite: 22,970.77, +28.62 (+0.12%)