Unfinished Business: Stocks Seek Reconciliation with New Realities in Persian Gulf and at Federal Reserve; Fighting Between Israel and Hezbollah Escalates

Editor's Note: Forgetting that June 19 is now a federal holiday, I wrote this piece thinking that markets would open at the usual 9:30 am ET. I apologize for forgetting how inclusive the USA has become. Most of the people I know are working and not planning any festivities. Who knew? - Fearless Rick

Wrapping up a truly memorable week, U.S. equity, options, and bond markets appear to have some unfinished business on a quad-witching Friday.

Adjusting to renewed free flow of oil and other essential commodities (helium, urea, natgas to name a few) from the Persian Gulf and the new paradigm lacking forward guidance at the Fed, Friday presents as a day to cash in, cash out, and reposition for what's to come, which, by the current looks of things, is a very speculative bet on the future.

The array options and futures positions in stocks, indices, oil, and other commodities is wide and vast, with winners and losers on both sides of various ledgers. Anybody who was long oil is reaching for the laxatives while shorts are dancing in the streets. Stocks, especially those favored in the chip sector and among the Mag7, may be looking at gains that might have been larger just a few days or weeks ago, and must close out those positions post haste.

Along with stock futures, gold and silver spot prices are reacting negatively to the return to a semi-normal macro condition. There are a variety of views and presumptions about the immediate direction of flows, the predominant one being an adjustment pain period that was held off by the drawdown of crude stockpiles that now looks to tighten considerably after the major powers in the oil patch have played their hands and will be facing shortages over the next few months, suggesting higher prices for crude as countries bid to rebuild reserves.

This is, of course, a short term position. Oil prices will rise, then fall, if the peace at the Strait of Hormuz remains intact. There's a considerable faction thinking that condition will not last long, especially after Israel (the wild card in the process) and Hezbollah engaged in heavy conflict overnight. According to reports, Israel launched missile attacks at various locations in southern Lebanon. Israel remains in its bellicose position and commitment to continued aggression against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and the U.S. apparently has lost control over its proxy, failing to restrain the escalations of Israel. The market is sensing a troubled situation which could derail the fragile peace. Already, Iran has failed ot send a delegation to Geneva, Switzerland for the first round of negotiations. Israel and Hezbollah could scotch the entire process.

Not withstanding the military situation in Lebanon and Israel, traders seem nervous about the entire situation. Unless the proxies of the U.S. and Iran are reigned in, the peace process remains at risk and other factors that have inspired traders to sned stocks to extreme valuations may have run their courses. The AI revolution that has fueled the current rally is cracking, with hyperscaler deals breaking down and questions over the long-term viability of AI business models continue to emerge, with some dour outlooks.

With under an hour to the opening bell, stock futures are collapsing under the weight of dangerous uncertainty and increasing volatility into the quad-witching session. Dow futures are off by 185 points; S&P futures are down 50, and NASDAQ futures are losing 164 points. Gold and silver are also down more than one percent from Thursday's settlement. Crude oil prices are elevated, though not to an alarming degree. WTI is still holding well under $80/barrel.

For the week, as of Thursday's close, the Dow is ahead by 362 points, the NASDAQ is up 629, and the S&P has a gain of 69 points.

The setup for Friday appears to be very knee-jerky and unlikely to be a forecast for longer term outlooks because, if Israel and Lebanon continue to engage, the impact on the flow of oil out of the Gulf may still be minimal. Both Iran and the U.S. are well aware that control of their proxy forces is at best, minimal, so there may be room for understanding and patching up the negotiations, though complete resolution still seems to be a distant hope.

At the Close, Thursday, June 18, 2026:
Dow: 51,564.70, +72.15 (+0.14%)
NASDAQ: 26,517.93, +496.28 (+1.91%)
S&P 500: 7,500.58, +80.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 23,499.74, +29.98 (+0.13%)

Well Done, Mr. Warsh; New Fed Chair Sticks to Principles, Does Not Tip Off Press, Traders to Future Policy in First FOMC Press Conference

Taking the podium for the first time as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh stuck to his premiss that the Fed should not telegraph future policy decision, deflecting questions from a press corps eager for any kind of tip-off or suggestion over what might occur at the July and subsequent FOMC meetings.

Warsh appeared calm and fully in control of the environment at the press conference, breaking ground with five task forces assigned to examine various aspects of the Fed's makeup and operations while also breaking with a short-lived tradition favored by his predecessors, Bernanke, Yellen, and Powell, of supplying hints or leading statements that revealed the future direction of rate policy.

Even the shortened version of the public statement displayed a new course of action. The statement was tight and terse:

The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:

The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.

Certain participants in the stock and bond markets may have suffered a perplexity moment after reading the four-paragraph press release while wondering when the chairman would tip off markets for some of the usual front-running of policy. It didn't happen as Warsh repeatedly swatted down reporters' questions about potential policy moves. About the only thing wrong with Warsh's remarks was his bad haircut. He needs to upgrade to a better barber.

Warsh laid out the guidelines for five tasks forces he was developing, to be managed by international Fed staff and select outsiders with experience related to individual topics.

1. Fed Communications - This task force will examine how the Fed communicates with markets and policymakers. It will consider updating the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plots. It will also be reviewing the frequency and format of press conferences, with Warsh signaling a move away from automatic post-meeting pressers unless there’s something important to share.

2. Balance Sheet Policy - Given Warsh’s long-standing criticism of the Fed’s large bond holdings, this panel will assess the benefits and risks of the current “ample reserves” regime. Potential alternatives for implementing monetary policy without over-expansion of the balance sheet will be an area of concern.

3. Data Collection and Analysis - The group will evaluate new data sources and methodological improvements concerning how the Fed can get more timely, actionable insights into the economy.

4. Productivity and Jobs Data - This task force will review how the Fed measures and uses productivity and labor market indicators and whether current frameworks capture the nuances of employment and economic health.

5. Inflation Framework - A central focus, this panel will examine whether the Fed is targeting the right levers of inflation and consider a new inflation framework to improve accuracy and responsiveness.

Warsh expects the task forces to begin work within weeks, with updates starting in the fall and recommendations due by year-end. Any changes from their findings could take effect in early 2027. The shift in attitude and level of communication were far from subtle. It's apparent that Warsh was uneasy with the status quo and quickly has taken actions to reform and remodel the Federal Reserve's function in the general economy.

His actions are likely to make days of FOMC policy decisions less volatile in the markets, with every trading desk leaning in intensely, ready to take action on any particular clues that might be dropped. While Warsh's immediate predecessors were overtly provocative and eager to give markets green lights via their commentary or in the policy statement itself, he has signaled that the Fed will return to its Greenspan and prior eras of more opacity and less actionable pronouncements. The shift is notable and welcome after two decades of inside baseball giving institutions and people close to the Fed advances and advantages that allowed the savvy Wall Street experts to game the system.

There was a time - mostly in the 1960s and 70s - in which the Federal Reserve was seen only in the shadows, occasionally cracking open the door of the Eccles building to shed a little light on economic conditions. A return to a quieter, less-intrusive, and more defensible Federal Reserve is a welcome change.

After digesting what many money managers thought in advance would be a signal for raising rates, even after Warsh disclosed nothing of the kind, stocks sold off in herd-like manner during and after Warsh's press conference. Overnight and into Thursday morning there seemed ot be a re-assessment of the general sentiment. Since Warsh failed to offer any tip line to the needy trading community, stock futures have rebounded, pointing to a positive move at the open.

Conversely, in some kind of twisted logic, precious metals are selling off after rallying slightly overnight. There may still exist a perception that the Fed has no choice but to raise rates, making treasuries and other bonds and fixed income instruments attractive. Something triggered a jolt higher in yields late Wednesday, with the knee-jerk response the usual selling of gold and silver futures. Unsure at this time what was the trigger or why, there obviously are some insider workings that are taking their own paths.

Who's right and who's wrong-footed is going to lead to some degree of volatility in markets Thursday and Friday, which is also a quad-witching day, with quarterly futures and options expiring. There's plenty of chatter and speculation since the end of hostilities in the Middle East and Warsh's chairmanship going live.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 17, 2026:
Dow: 51,492.55, -507.12 (-0.98%)
NASDAQ: 26,021.66, -354.69 (-1.34%)
S&P 500: 7,420.10, -91.25 (-1.21%)
NYSE Composite: 23,469.76, -234.27 (-0.99%)

There Are Some Good Reasons Why New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh Will Signal Future Rate Cuts to Markets and Traders in First FOMC Presser

The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time closing high on Tuesday, as the first session of the two-day FOMC meeting got underway, led by Trump-appointed Chairman Kevin Warsh. The NASDAQ and S&P slipped a bit, though it was mostly profit-taking, given the gains on Monday from the peace deal MOU worked out between Iran and the United States.

Entering Wednesday, with Warsh's first policy statement and press conference about to make waves at 2:00 pm ET, markets aren't anticipating anything out of the ordinary from Warsh. Fed analyzers will be looking for forward clues to the Warsh Fed's general policy and direction.

Warsh faces the tough choice between pleasing President Trump, who is desirous of lower rates and responding to increasing pressures from inflation, which would more than likely favor raising rates. The new chairman may have caught a break with the Iran-U.S. peace deal, as oil prices have eased lower and gas at the pump, according to gasbuddy.com, is just below $4 ($3.99) for the first time in more than two months. That gives Warsh some leeway. If he mentions that gas and energy prices have been the main contributors to the increase in inflation, he can just brush raising rates aside, placing the blame for higher prices on the Middle East situation, which has just now changed for the better.

That would seem to be the most likely scenario for Warsh, who was Trump's choice for Fed Chairman primarily because he would align himself with the president's fiscal policies, one of which is to lower the cost of financing the government's massive debt load, poised to exceed $40 trillion within the next few months. Lower rates for servicing that debt would go a long way toward helping Republicans retain the House and Senate, a tall order, though nonetheless thought to be within reach by staunch "conservatives."

Thus, cutting interest rates, or, at least any mention of such intention, leans strongly in Warsh's favor. He gets to please Mr. Trump, goose stocks higher and cut the cost of serving the government debt.

Win-win-win.

Traders are likely to be in wait-and-see mode until 2:00 pm ET, when the formal policy statement is announced with the high probability that the Fed will keep the federal funds target rate at 3.50-3.75%, where it has been since December, 2025. Because the vast majority of Fed watchers expect no change at this meeting, fireworks on the stock and bonds markets will most probably ensue during Warsh's press conference, which kicks off at 2:30 pm. From then until the 4:00 pm close might see some wild swings, depending on how adept Warsh appears at projecting confidence and quietly tipping his hand towards future Fed dealings.

The real test of Warsh's signaling will come Thursday, after market participants have had time to assess what was said. Tying into the general state of affairs is Friday's signing of the MOU in Geneva, by VP Vance and Iranian representative, Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

Some wise guy traders might even take the opportunity to audaciously initiate new positions before the Fed announcement as the policy seems to favor cutting rates as opposed to raising them.

All of this makes for an interesting remainder of the week.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 16, 2026: Dow: 51,999.67, +328.64 (+0.64%) NASDAQ: 26,376.34, -307.60 (-1.15%) S&P 500: 7,511.35, -42.94 (-0.57%) NYSE Composite: 23,704.03, +30.37 (+0.13%)

Middle East Peace Sends Stocks Soaring; Dow Hits Record; Gold, Silver Recover from Recent Lows, Oil Down, Gas Prices to Follow

Editor's Note: Running very late this morning, making this a drive-by posting.

Obvious to everybody except maybe the more ardent Zionists and neocons, people like peace, and that's what sent stocks over the moon Monday, with the Dow Industrials closing at a record high with the S&P and NASDAQ almost sure to follow in coming sessions.

The MOU between the U.S. and Iran, set to be signed Friday, has already delivered results on Wall Street with the promise of a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and end to the U.S. blockade and peace in the Middle East. The question remains, "how long will it last?" A ceasefire has been in place for two months, though all sides have violated it at various junctures, Israel being the most provocative.

President Netanyahu of the occupier country insists that he will not halt aggressions against Lebanon and Hezbollah, even after U.S. President Trump put him in his place after Israel threatened the entire peace process by bombin Beirut Sunday.

It's apparent that the losers in this war were the U.S. and Israel. Trump is taking a lot of heat from congressional members tied to the Zionist lobby, AIPAC, and from media jack-asses like Mark Levin. Trump's divorce from Israel is a bold move that needs to be taken. The U.S. cannot continue to support a country that engages in genocide openly and continuously. The "nation" of Israel has become a stain upon humanity and a pariah in the civilized world. Iran put them in their place militarily. Now, the U.S. is attempting to end the long and painful experience with their Zionist partners.

Those with hope, faith, and prayer will endure.

In markets, Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO hit the second stage Monday, rocketing 30 points higher (nearly 20%) on rumors that SpaceX (SPCX) would acquire Anysphere, the company behind the AI coding tool Cursor, for $60 billion, which was confirmed on Tuesday.

Futures are flying. July WTI crude oil futures are down to the lowest level in four months, $76.71. Gas prices at the pump should continue to fall below $4.00 a gallon in the U.S. Gold and silver continue to recover off recent lows.

Peace, yeah, what is it good for? The answer is plain to see.

At the Close, Monday, June 15, 2026:
Dow: 51,671.03, +468.77 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 26,683.94, +795.10 (+3.07%)
S&P 500: 7,554.29, +122.83 (+1.65%)
NYSE Composite: 23,673.66, +77.87 (+0.33%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Will a Peace Dividend Emerge? Trump, White House Expected to Announce Peace Deal with Iran Sunday, June 14

Peace - at least for the present - in the Middle East has finally been achieved, after more than three months of conflict, ceasefire, and back-and-forth between Iran and the United States.

Headline worshippers will gush endlessly about the brilliance of President Trump's strategies to topple Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, there will be no mention of the 2009 Brookings Institution white paper, "Which Path to Persia", in which most of the options for U.S. dealings with Iran were laid out years ago.

Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy toward Iran is a product of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. The essays were written by Saban Center scholars Daniel L. Byman, Martin Indyk, Suzanne Maloney, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Kenneth M. Pollack, and Bruce Riedel. Kenneth Pollack also served as the overall editor.

The entire 170-page document can be downloaded here [PDF], no strings attached.

Iran has been a focus of U.S. intelligence for many years. The CIA didn't overthrow the popularly-elected leader of Iran in 1953 and install the puppet leader, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, because they didn't have anything better to do. The 1953 coup in Iran was a significant event where the United States and the United Kingdom orchestrated a coup d'état that overthrew Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh and reinstated Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi as the leader of Iran. Mosaddegh was placed under house arrest for the remainder of his life.

Always a regional power that the U.S. viewed as a deterrent bulwark opposed to British, U.S. and Israeli interests in the region. The many years and decades of influence and intervention is not likely to cease with Sunday's forecast signing of a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) between the U.S. and Iran. At the very least, it stops most of the militarism in the region and would ostensibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. It will serve as a path forward for the global economy, which was greatly threatened by the cessation of oil and other key commodity traffic through the Persian Gulf.

As Sunday morning unfolds to Sunday afternoon, both the White House and Iranian officials have remained mum on deal progress, even as Israel throws a spanner by bombing the southern suburbs of Beirut earlier today. Since today is Trump's 80th birthday, expect the White House to follow through, though what arrives as narrative may not stand up to a reality check in coming days. The ongoing farce of peace vs. war may come to some kind of halt on Sunday or continue along with yet another unkept promise.

Don't stay glued to FOX or any of the other mainstream media. Get out and enjoy a late Spring day. Whatever the people in "power" will do, they will do. It's likely to have a much bigger impact of Wall Street than in the lives of ordinary citizens, though, if real, could keep the media wheels spinning until the midterms, which, by some accounts, is all that matters inside the Beltway.

If some kind of agreement with Iran isn't undermined by Israel - always a real threat to peace - the economic benefits could prove to be profound, with lower gas prics for U.S. drivers, stability in emerging markets and global trade, and a return to pre-war conditions favorable to growth and prosperity. There might be a chance that President Trump's on-and-off rhetoric and his inner desire to make this year's Independence Day (July 4) celebration one worthy of 250-years of the U.S. republic. Consumer sentiment and national pride can go a long way toward improving conditions for all.

We shall see...

Stocks

Overall, stocks dropped to their lowest levels in a month on Tuesday and recovered on Thursday, extending the rally into Friday's session, though there was less-than-enthusiastic support for the latest messaging that peace in the Middle East was imminent, leaving markets in a weekend conundrum with some kind of resolution expected before markets reopen Monday. Some indication of what may develop for equities on Monday may come from precious metals, which reopen trading on Sunday at 6:00 pm ET, or bitcoin, which trades continuously.

If a deal is struck and announced by te White House as promised, the resultant rally in stocks should exceed the opposite drop in the price of crude oil. Estimates, based on a successful "deal" with language sufficient to ensure follow-through, are for stocks to rise more than two percent through midweek, with cruide oil losing some four to eight dollars per barrel, into a range of $75-80.

On the week, the NYSE Composite (+339.29, +1.46%) and Dow Transports (+683.16, +3.12%) outpaced the three majors, with the NASDAQ the weak horse, up just 0.31% over the past five sessions.

The week ahead features only a few companies reporting first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Canopy Growth (CGC); (after close) Dave & Buster's (PLAY)

Tuesday: (before open) Wiley (WLY); (after close) LazyBoy (LZB)

Wednesday: (before open) Progressive Insurance (PGR), Jabil Electronics (JBL), Carmax (KMX)

Thursday: (before open) Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KRO)

The big event for the week ahead will be the two-day FOMC meeting, Tuesday and Wednesday, this being the first under newly-appointed Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Of course, that would take a back seat to any delay in the "peace plan" if not announced Sunday.

Monday offers the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production metrics. Tuesday, monthly building permits and housing starts for May are released prior to the market open. May retail sales come in Wednesday morning, with the Fed's policy statement following at 2:00 pm ET. Thursday gets the usual initial and continuing claims data from the Labor Department and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88
06/12/2026	3.69	3.70	3.70	3.78	3.79	3.82	3.86

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01
06/12/2026	4.09	4.12	4.21	4.34	4.48	4.98	4.97

Treasury yields came off recent highs, but hardly in a convincing manner. The dual lines in the sand - 5.00% for 30-year bonds and $4.50 for 10-year notes were taken out as the peace prospects made their rounds, but debt buyers were apprehensive about going long overall. Spreads continue to remain at high levels across the entire curve, while 2s-10s continue to be restrained.

The treasury curve is orderly overall, though much of its future depends on what comes out of the Fed's FOMC meeting in the week ahead. Keven Warsh was appointed by President Trump to ensure lower rates and easier money, but re-ignition of inflation lately has tamped down expectations and the Fed may indeed signal rate hikes ahead at new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's initial press conference. Bond traders will be on high alert for any tip-offs in either the formal statement or spoken at the presser.

For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128

Oil/Gas

WTI crude futures closed out the week at $84.88 on the NY Mercantile Exchange, down sharply from the prior Friday reading of $90.26, in anticipation of some kind of announcement that a deal has been struck between the United States and Iran, ending hostilities in the region. As of Sunday morning, the White House has yet to make a declaration, though one is expected soon.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.11 last week and $4.03 this week, another in a four to five week move lower, with prospects for prices to retrat by as much as another 50-60 cents by mid-summer are enticing.

Reserves have been substantially drained by major economies around the world to keep prices under control. The United States has been purging its strategic oil reserve - the world’s largest emergency crude oil stockpile — and is currently on track to hit its lowest level since the early 1980s. Recent data shows 357.1 million barrels in the week ending May 29, 2026, nearly half of its authorized 714 million barrel capacity and close to the 346.8 million barrel low reached in July 2023.

About eight million barrels were taken last week, following earlier weekly draws of 9–10 million barrels. Total U.S. crude inventories (commercial + SPR) have fallen to 709.8 million barrels, down from 878 million in early April. It has gotten to a point at which oil executives feared inventories were falling to unsustainable levels and further drawdowns could threaten to snd prices spiraling higher. While oil execs are usually in fovar of higher prices for their products, the ongoing situation became precarious with flows shut off completely.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.72 (-0.16)
Washington: $5.51 (-0.11)
Oklahoma: $3.50 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.65 (-0.07)
Florida: $3.80 (+0.05)
Illinois: $4.34 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.20 (-0.12)
New York: $4.34 (-0.09)
Maryland: $3.81 (-0.15)
Michigan: $4.17 (+0.04)
Texas (lowest): $3.47 (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.72 (-0.06)

On Sunday, June 14th, there are twenty-seven (27) states with average prices below $4.00, with 21 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.58) and Alaska ($5.14), with just two above $5 (California, Washington). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past four weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 ($3.47-3.80) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region a close second, prices averaging from $3.71 to $3.90.

Bitcoin

This week: $64,048.96
Last week: $61,809.72
2 weeks ago: $73,835.71
6 months ago: $90,207.59
One year ago: $105,312.90
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Bit of a rebound this week off multi-year lows. Bitcoin hasn't cleared any of the hurdles that would convince investors that the deep slide off the highs from mid-July through mid-October of last year has run its course. With prices depressed since February of this year, below $82,000 at best, the path forward for bitcoin appears to be a continuation of the lowered price structure. The current chart configuration resembles that of late 2021 through all of 2022 and into summer of 2023, when prices collapsed off highs above $64,000 down to lows in the teens.

Bitcoin's fate, largely in the hands of "whales" and institutions like Strategy (MSTR), holding more than 90% of all bitcoin mined. Faith in crypto as an alternative to fiat currencies has faded badly and may become mored in a low price regime for what could turn into years.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 62.03; last week: 63.80

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90
Gold price 6/12: $4,239.90

Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00
Silver price 6/12: $68.12

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57
Gold 6/12: $4,218.23

Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83
Silver 6/12: $68.00

Silver and gold hit some serious bottoms during the week, but roused to a positive lose on Friday as the rumors of peace with Iran began to circulate. It's not as if opening up the Strait of Hormuz has anything at all with precious metals, the spreading exuberance over ending the conflict in the Middle East seems ot be popping up in unusual places. Perhaps it is more about slowing inflation tied to a more robust flow of oil that made the metals move, but trading from Tuesday through Friday suggested that lows were hunted, found, and satisfied short sellers sufficiently.

Precious metals remain the ultimate safe haven for obvious reasons, though they've been under pressure recently and especially during the Iran conflict, moving lower in contradiction to usual patterns. Gold has, for centuries, been sought as protection during unsure periods, but these days seems to be fractious within fractured markets operating at the derivative level in the West and more in a physical manner in the East. The dichotomy will continue indefinitely, though physical markets are always and everywhere preferred by serious buyers of not just precious metals, but commodities of all sorts. Futures are good enough insurance for food stocks and other commodities which have seasonal variation, but sometimes are seriously out of touch when it comes to more durable things.

One wouldn't go looking for a car based on future prices? Or buy a house based on what it may be worth a few months or years from the present date, would one?

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	84.00	79.97	80.25
1 oz silver bar:	74.95	88.97	80.49	79.07
1 oz gold coin:	4340.00	4536.36	4445.51	4437.93
1 oz gold bar:	4392.32	4578.29	4430.84	4421.52

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) lost a small amount of ground this week, dropping to $79.95 on June 14, a loss of 33 cents per troy ounce, from the June 7 price of $80.28.

WEEKEND WRAP

"Peace" has different meanings to different groups of people. Perhaps the appropriate definition is contained in this anonymous, brilliant quote: "Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading."

That may be what we have for now. How long it lasts is a function of policy and the will to power of various players in the world of geo-politics. Often attributed as Albert Einstein's definition of insanity - doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results - is also applicable. The insanity of waging war will persist, no matter how long it takes the opposing sides to reload.

Enjoy it while/if you can.

At the Close, Friday, June 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,202.26, +353.51 (+0.70%)
NASDAQ: 25,888.84, +79.18 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 7,431.46, +37.16 (+0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 23,595.79, +182.90 (+0.78%)

For the Week:
Dow: +355.48 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: +179.41 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: +47.72 (+0.65%)
NYSE Composite: +339.29 (+1.46%)
Dow Transports: +683.16 (+3.12%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

The Inconvenient Truth: There's Enough Oil for Everybody; SpaceX Blasts Off with Record-Setting IPO

With Friday's focus clearly on Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, oilprice.com (who wants permissions for every single word they write; a bunch of stubborn weenies in a fluid grown-up world) reports that Brent crude futures traders are shorting crude like the price is headed to $60. These traders have their greasy fingers on the levers of power, political, financial, and societal, and they may be right.

It needs to be understood that prior to the U.S. assault on Iran beginning the last day of February, there was a global glut of oil driving down prices of everything. The abrupt turn in markets on the advent of war naturally set off price hikes. Three months down the road, oil prices, along with gas at the pump, have peaked and retreated from artificial highs. Artificial is the operative word because there has not been a crisis condition and may not be one. Oil inventories were quite high and satisfactory and remained in that state for the duration. Whether or not there's a final resolution to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the end of the Gulf of Oman into the Indian Ocean U.S. blockade, oil continues to flow, though lately only a trickle from the Gulf.

Fact of the matter is that oil isn't as precious a commodity as it used to be. Solar power, especially, has cut into demand for crude, along with other alternative energy sources. The world is changing. China has gone all-in on solar, India following the same path. The U.S., far behind the infrastructure curve by decades due to ignoring infrastructure needs for pretty much the last 40 years is approaching its failure with the usual short-sighted American aplomb. "We have plenty of oil," shouts President Braggart. "We don't need Mideast oil."

While the president may be right about U.S. needs for Gulf oil, the larger issue is technological. The U.S. has been steadily falling behind its peers on innovation as its infrastructure collapses due to neglect, graft, corruption, and plain old ignorance. Blame can be heaped upon the U.S. septuagenarian president, but equal responsibility lies clearly with congress, a do-nothing body whose legislation serves only self-interest and vote-buying. The federal government, top to bottom, is a massive failure yet to be realized. Recognition comes later, after oil matters are settled, after a boost to the economy, after the midterms get stolen by one or another of the two major parties, each working in collusion with the other to keep the corrupt money flowing.

Oil prices have been coming down because there are alternatives that make past comparisons null and void yet remain unmentionable in polite company. While oil companies and their supporters may not like low prices, that's the reality. There's more than enough for everybody if oil production isn't perverted by terrorism, war, mysterious explosions at refineries, and the usual trading games people play. he mainstream media can't cover the story with any sense of trust because they are blind to the truth. The public gets duped, the politicians get rich, the oil companies make profits. That's just the way it goes.

The reality is that owning an electric car, a house heated with natural gas or by electricity, negates the need for crude oil almost completely and nobody wants that information out. People are just supposed to pay more and shut the hell up. It's a pretty slavish relationship that has deeper roots in the debt-based monetary system that is tolerated because change, though often good, is hard.

As far as SpaceX is concerned, The $135/share IPO pricing is likely to result in a big upside as open trading commences because everybody and their brothers and sisters want to be part of Elon Musk's magical path to being the first trillionare. While the company still hasn't generated a profit, it does have potential in building and deploying rockets, satellites, the future of AI, and the well-established Starlink internet connection via LEO (low earth orbit) satellites.

The company may never meet some of the lofty expectations, like establishing a human colony on Mars, but it's likely to be turning a profit in a few years time. It has the backing of some big institutional names and public response is expected to be strong.

Wall Street will pump the stock like its the second coming of Jesus. With the hype machine at full volume, Friday looks to be a glorious return to a profitable week after an unusually bad time the first week in June. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is down, but only by 18 points for the week. The NASDAQ is looking to end up in the black, already up 100 points, and the S&P is up 10 points, conveniently leading into what looks to be a positive finish to a tumultuous week.

Gold and silver have bounced off their lows, with silver trading as high as $68 overnight and gold hitting $4,247 before backing off a bit. Even bitcoin caught a bid as stock futures have ramped higher, though there's still an hour before the open.

This report comes earlier than most Money Daily missives because it's hot, we got up early, and we're all taking the afternoon off. Enjoy the SpaceX show. This is just the premiere. The real business comes later down the road, or, should it be, after escaping gravity?

At the Close, Thursday, June 11, 2026:
Dow: 50,848.75, +929.97 (+1.86%)
NASDAQ: 25,809.66, +640.16 (+2.54%)
S&P 500: 7,394.30, +127.31 (+1.75%)
NYSE Composite: 23,412.90, +332.07 (+1.44%)

May PPI Red Hot, but Investors Focused on Friday's SpaceX (SPCX) IPO; Stocks May Take a Breather from Recent Selling

Depending on the index, for the second or third time in a week, stocks got hammered deeply, though none of the major indices are anywhere near correction territory, leaving hope for a quick rebound.

Equity holders may get a reprieve thanks to resumption of serious military engagements with Iran and President Trump's boasting about sneaking 100 million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, undetected by Iranian forces. With the ceasefire collapsing rapidly, full-blown war could soon return to the region as the main issues in a number of peace proposals remain unresolved.

After Wednesday's CPI release for May scared off weak hands in the market, this morning's PPI data left futures relatively unscathed.

According to the BLS:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 1.1 percent in April and 0.7 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 6.5 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest 12-month rise since moving up 7.4 percent in November 2022.

Nearly 80 percent of the May advance in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.8-percent increase in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.

The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8 percent in May, the largest advance since increasing 0.9 percent in March 2022. For the 12 months ended in May, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 5.1 percent, the largest 12-month rise since jumping 5.5 percent in October 2022.

Despite the major headline numbers being the worst in roughly four years, stock enthusiasts seem to be ready for some buy-the-dip bottom fishing, profits having been taken and ready for reinvestment.

It's hard ot tell whether the market is serious or this morning's futures are merely a head-fake, with the major indices down 4-6% from recent highs. Considering most of the main issues - Iran, inflation, cost of living - the White House narrative remains positive, and that matters greatly to the sales forces in lower Manhattan.

Overnight, Asian stocks were mixed, but mostly lower. This morning, European bourses are all reporting gains. Stock futures are rising, with Dow futures up 275 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 240, and S&P futures up 35. Gold and silver remain under pressure, both hitting six to seven month lows. Treasuries remain elevated, with 10-year yields at 4.54% and 30-year yields approaching 5.03%.

It's probably a good bet that stocks will take a little breather from the selling, given they've retreated for most of the last week.

Tomorrow's big event will be the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO, which is expected to price at $135 per share, a price set out by the company's prospectus, which has been making the rounds the past few months. There are certain to be more than a few investors eager to get in on Elon Musk's latest foray into markets.

The IPO is expected to launch Friday with expectations high for upside trading of 20% or more being sought.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 10, 2026:
Dow: 49,918.78, -953.33 (-1.87%)
NASDAQ: 25,169.50, -509.32 (-1.98%)
S&P 500: 7,266.99, -119.66 (-1.62%)
NYSE Composite: 23,080.83, -300.27 (-1.28%)

Is Wall Street Willing to Shrug Off Highest Inflation in Three Years on 'Better than Expected' Basis? Futures, Gold, Silver Rally on May CPI Release

So much for calling the market.

Admittedly, Money Daily was out over its own skis Tuesday, calling for a session of dip-buying. In reality, there was some, but not before the NASDAQ had dropped nearly 1,000 points before 1:00 pm ET. A 700-point rally took all of the afternoon, leaving the index scarred, bruised, but not broken.

The Dow and NYSE Composite ended the session on the upside, and the S&P closed down less than 20 points. The fear factor was strong enough to send some of the usual suspects - Mag7 and chip stocks - down below Friday's closing levels, though the afternoon recovery pushed them back above water. Not everyone is convinced that Friday's episode was the start of something bigger and more calamitous.

Given the market dynamics of tremendous overvalue, disruptions in the oil flow, and the looming prospect of resumption of full-scale warring in the Middle East, somebody is going to be very wrong. Bulls or bears, and maybe both as wild price swings have brought the VIX above 20, a signal for continued volatility.

Adding to the intrigue is Wednesday's release of May CPI, expected to confirm what everybody already knows: prices are higher, inflation has returned, and the cost of living has grown to be too expensive for what used to be a thriving middle class.

There's good reason to believe that the inflation genie has popped back out of her bottle. The Powell Fed didn't do nearly enough to quell inflation tendencies. They hiked the federal funds target rate to 5.50% in July of 2023, kept it there for another 14 months, declared victory and began easing, without ever hitting their desired level of two percent inflation. It was half-assed policy which managed to appease some politicians and bond buyers, but it was nowhere near enough when inflation had peaked above nine percent according to their own sources and was realistically in a range of 15-20% according to analysts like Shadow Stats, who employ more honest gauges than the Fed and the market do.

With all that baggage in tow, the BLS released the May data an hour before the cash open (8:30 am ET). Here's what they reported:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for energy rose 3.9 percent in May, after rising 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March. The energy index accounted for over sixty percent of the monthly all items increase. The index for shelter also increased in May, rising 0.3 percent. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.1 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in May. Indexes that increased over the month include communication, airline fares, medical care, personal care, and recreation. Conversely, the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 3.8 percent for the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.9 percent over the year, following a 2.8-percent increase over the 12 months ending April. The energy index increased 23.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last year.

Not pulling punches even a little bit, the agency pointed out the 23.5% rise in energy over the past year, most of it occurring in just the past three months. U.S. policy regarding Iran is obviously the leading factor and just how much longer the White House and congress will continue their mad escapade is historically measured in years, not weeks or months. It and the costs of maintaining a threatening posture in Ukraine have become the leading causes of financial pain in America. As they say, "this won't end well."

Wall Street may be grudgingly accepting reality, something they rarely do. The U.S. economy is essentially a basket case, producing little more than sketchy narratives, political corruption, and consumer inflation. That doesn't really sound like a winning formula.

Logic would dictate an end to the blooming of new highs on the stock market, but Wall Street doesn't trade in logic; its levers are more emotional in nature. If fear of losses replaces the greed instinct (FOMO) to a generous degree, the cascading waterfall effect could become devastating to investors of all stripes, from billionaire hedge fund bosses to the slave laborer hoping for gains in their retirement account or 401k. As somebody in the newspaper business once quipped: "Retirement? Most of our reporters die right at their desks."

Americans have tied their fates to the Wall Street grinder and Washington's nanny state policies. They ar beginning to see the results and they're not happy. A stock market crash or considerable downturn may be more suffering than the people are willing to endure.

As widely expected, stock futures took the BLS data and turned the worst inflation reading in three years into a positive, citing the usual “Beat Expectations" meme. Dow and NASDAQ futures were each down more than 500 points before the release. Afterwards, a spike higher lopped off more than 250 of the losses.

None of this has been very good for precious metals, as both gold and silver have slipped into bear market conditions. There is joyous celebration at the LBMA and COMEX futures circles. However, both metals turned higher on the CPI release.

Comment of the day: “Here’s your plate of crap. Go buy yourself a plastic fork.”

At the Close, Tuesday, June 9, 2026:
Dow: 50,872.11, +86.10 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 25,678.82, -250.84 (-0.97%)
S&P 500: 7,386.65, -19.08 (-0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 23,381.09, +156.89 (+0.68%)

Buying the Dip is Tuesday's Main Theme; Stock Enthusiasts Undeterred After Friday's Leg Lower; Investors Weigh Asset Class Options

Monday's dead cat bounce didn't amount to much in terms of recovery on the NASDAQ and S&P following Friday's selloff.

The S&P recovered just more than 10% of Friday's losses, while the NASDAQ grabbed back about 20%. Since Friday's selling was, by and large, profit-taking rather than a mass fear episode, the market will likely recover on a more gradual basis, as opposed to the rapid rise of the prior few months.

While there are a number of negatives overhanging the market as a whole, Wall Street is quite adept at sidestepping or ignoring anything that stands in the way of greater and greater highs. It's been a little more than two months since the most recent correction, when the NASDAQ fell about 13% and the S&P lost nearly 10% between te end of January and the end of March, implying that another downturn is not likely to occur, even though valuations remain historically high, screaming, "sell me."

Nobody is listening, however. At this time last year, the Naz and S&P were already seeking a path higher, recovering from the tariff trauma in April. They would both eventually peak near the end of October. Over that period, the NASDAQ put on gains of over 40% while the S&P added an impressive 30%. Given the timeline of roughly nine months to a year between severe dips, Friday's one-day smackdown appears to be nothing of consequence near term. Get ready for short sellers to get sandbagged again.

Dispensing with the fear associated with large single day events, stocks, especially the chip sector which suffered the most damage last week, are poised to make up for lost time, with institutions remaining tied to momentum stocks. The public is probably going to join in on the dip-buying, sensing opportunity.

As Tuesday's open approaches, futures are talking a good game, with Dow futures ahead by 130 points, NASDAQ futures up more than 200, and S&P futures up nearly 30 points an hour prior to the bell.

Tuesday may come off as a good day to initiate positions, as everything will appear to lean positively. Wednesday and Thursday may see some turbulence with the release of May CPI and PPI, respectively. However, as is often the case, the market may take elevated inflation levels without nuance, especially if those readings are better than expected, meaning, they still stink, but not as badly as analysts had assumed. Of course, it's rubbish, but may provide enough of a practical narrative to keep stocks above water and end the week with gains.

It's not that markets are rigged to go ever higher, but the objective of Wall Street has always been to promote wealth accumulation via higher prices. Indeed, if inflation is truly an issue, it is almost certain to redound to stocks first.

On the fixed income side, Friday's slide may be said to have done more damage to the treasury market than it did to stocks as the yield on 10-year notes zoomed past 4.50% and the 30-year yield regained 5.00%. Heading into Tuesday's open, the 10-year is at 4.54% and the 30-year, 5.02%. The persistent theme of rising inflation is sending treasuries into empty space on the high side of the yield curve. With the Fed poised to begin hiking rates at some time in the near future to counteract inflation (though not at next week's meeting), the treasury market won't react until newly-installed Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, opens his mouth at the press conference podium. CME's FedWatch tool has the odds of no rate change to the Federal Funds Target Rate (3.50-3.75%) at 98.2%, the assumption being that Warsh will be moderately hawkish and may actually send a signal for rate hikes beginning in July. For now, it's a wait-and-see condition.

None of this is very good for precious metals. If interest rates are going to yield 3.75-5.25%, depending on maturity, holding PMs, which pay no dividend, doesn't seem to be very appealing. On the other hand, if stocks are going to waver a bit here and there and interest rates aren't going to be very much higher near term, appreciation in gold and silver may not look so bad. A return of anywhere from 5-25% over the next six months could come to fruition, especially since the metals have been beaten down pretty hard recently. Investors surely have options available to them in various asset classes.

Discounting every negative thing, equity managers don't appear to be fazed by Friday's pounding. They have very short memories, a credit to their brood.

At the Close, Monday, June 8, 2026:
Dow: 50,786.01, -80.79 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 25,929.66, +220.26 (+0.86%)
S&P 500: 7,405.73, +21.99 (+0.30%)
NYSE Composite: 23,224.20, -32.30 (-0.14%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Time to Panic? NASDAQ Suffers Largest Point Loss Ever; Gold, Silver Smashed; Bitcoin Slashed to 22-Month Lows

How bad was Friday's stock market washout?

That depends on which index one wishes to measure, and by what means. The NASDAQ suffered the worst one-day point decline in its history, though on a percentage basis, the 1,121.53-point decline didn't even make the top 20. It lost 4.18%, which was bad enough, but the 20 largest percentage drops were all upwards of six percent.

The S&P's 200.59-point drop was the sixth-largest in point terms, but far from a disaster. The 2.64% decline wasn't even close to the largest percentage losses on the large-cap index, the worst being October 19, 1987's 20.47% collapse. In this century, the March 16, 2020 COVID-induced panic drop was an 11.98% decline. The index recovered within months.

The idea that the NASDAQ's largest point loss ever points to the extreme over-valuation on that index and on the S&P. Some of the more popular trades have been made in stocks that are "over their skis" so to speak. They are priced beyond perfection. Any little change may have a more pronounced effect in those shares.

From a Shakespearian perspective, Friday's tech trouncing was "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Most of the stocks that took the largest losses were those that were already floating amongst AI and semiconductor clouds.

Stocks

Hopes for a rebound back toward all-time highs were dashed by Friday's wipeout in equities, though the S&P and NASDAQ were far more affected than the Dow or NYSE Composite. Dow Transports actually gained 2.35% on the week.

Individual stocks that were trounced on Friday included chip darling, Nvidia (NVDA), which dropped more than six percent, though the loss only brought the high-flyer back to where it was a month ago. Another was Zuckerberg's Meta Platforms (META), which lost 5.51% in the Friday session. A poor performer this year (-10.16% ytd) and from a year ago (-14.56%), META leads the field in fantasy, sporting a 21.55 PE ratio and a 0.35% dividend yield. While the company continues to produce outsized profits, long-term holders and insiders have been bailing. Maybe it's the worst TV ads ever or Zuck's punchable face. Something is amiss that's larger than Friday's demise.

Elon Musk's Tesla (TSLA) defines the price versus value argument. The stock recently quadrupled since 2023 and is up 22% over the past year, but it took a 6.6% hit on Friday and is down 13% year-to-date. Its PE ratio is somewhere in the 350 range and the company pays no dividend. It's Musk's personal cash cow and the utmost in momentum trades. It stalled out on Friday and prospects for recovery are questionable.

Other Magnificent Seven stocks were less affected. Amazon (AMZN) dropped three percent while Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG) lost 1.25% and 0.95%, respectively. Netflix (NFLX) actually gained 0.76%, mostly because they aren't involved in the AI arms race. Microsoft (MSFT) dropped a well-deserved 2.66%.

The worst losses were in the semiconductor space. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) dropped 10.86%. Micron Technology (MU) lost 13.25%. Intel (INTC), -11.28%; SanDisk (SNDK), -11.39%. Oracle, -9.59%; Broadcom, -7.92%; Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), -6.69%.

While these stocks all took on water Friday, it has to be understood that they were being driven higher and higher by market forces that see no alternatives and have mountains of cash available with which to pump any given stock or sector. For a change, shorts made a profit, but there's ample opportunity for these same stocks to rebound, and maybe, quickly.

The week ahead features more stragglers and not-so-household names reporting first quarter results.

Monday: (before open) Duluth Trading (DLTH), Campbell's (CPB), FuelCell Energy (FCEL); (after close) Mama's Creations (MAMA), Vail Resorts (MTN)

Tuesday: (before open) Academy Sports (ASO), Lands' End (LE), J.M. Smucker (SJM), SailPoint (SAIL); (after close) Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Casey's (CASY), Bark (BARK)

Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY); (after close) Oracle (ORCL), Aethlon Medical (AEMD), Stitch Fix (SFIX)

Thursday: (before open) Vera Bradley (VRA), McGraw Hill (MH); (after close) Adobe (ADBE), Lennar (LEN)

Friday: NONE

Data will have a focus on the inflation picture in the week ahead. Monday, the NY Fed ponies up the monthly consumer inflation expectations survey. Not hard to predict what that will look like. On Tuesday, U.S. Trade Balance is in focus along with Existing Home Sales. The BLS delivers May CPI on Wednesday with PPI out Thursday along with the weekly unemployment claims, initial and continuing.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79
06/05/2026	3.71	3.71	3.71	3.78	3.78	3.81	3.88

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99
06/05/2026	4.17	4.22	4.29	4.41	4.55	5.03	5.01

Fear was not confined to stocks on Friday, nor during earlier parts of the week. Notes and bonds were being sold off willy-nilly, with the 2-year leading the folly, the yield up a whopping 19 basis points. The 10-year yield bounded back above 4.50%, to 4.55% on Friday and may be headed higher with a potential rate hike signal from the FOMC next week. Expectations are for the Fed to stand pat on rates, but possibly signal a coming hiking regime given the Tuesday-Wednesday meeting will be the first under Kevin Warsh's chairmanship. Warsh is likely to take a moderate approach rather than rock the financial boat on his maiden voyage.

The spread on the 2s-10s narrowed considerably, nine basis points lower, at +38, tightening up the yield curve. Full spectrum spreads remain elevated, at +130, and that may become more pronounced depending on the FOMC messaging next week. Lending to the U.S. government for any period longer than two years may be a dangerous prospect given the current inflation picture. Yields on long maturities may spike higher, leaving early buyers who thought they were getting good value as bag-holders.

The entire funding mechanism for Western economies is under assault from a variety of perspectives. Lack of trust in U.S. dealings and ongoing military conflicts have eroded confidence, sending yields higher, though the eventual destination may be as much as two percent upside from here, implying 10-year yields at 6-7% and 30-year yields as high as 8.00%. It's not like it hasn't happened before. Revisit the 1970s for reference.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130

Oil/Gas

The U.S. megaphone from the White House continues to tout "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict while the warring parties treat the temporary ceasefire as an opportunity to take pot-shots without severe consequences. Just about every day one side or the other is accused of violating the terms of the ceasefire, and every day there is no further escalation. It has to be one of the dumbest wars ever started by the U.S. and that includes Ukraine and Vietnam, each utterly devoid of purpose other than enhancing MIC profits. The Iran war, now more than a three-month "excursion", was supposed to be short-lived, and, by the way, already won, by the good guys, Israel and the U.S.A. The farce continues.

Oil flows continue to be squeezed at Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean.

WTI crude futures closed out the week at $90.26. While the price of WTI crude has been contained in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's small bounce may be sending a signal that the side-stepping lower will continue. The pattern is such that oil prices might drop into a lower range between $80 and $85 per barrel and remain in place while the White House pulls rabbits out of strategic hats. This could also signal a near-term bottom, given the rabbits have fled the scene and the conflict with Iran may escalate back to full-blown war, a scenario that has the White House in fear because that would mean more missiles raining down on regional U.S. bases and greater Israel, which the Iranians reduced to "lesser Israel" back in March.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.29 last week and $4.11 this week, another solid move lower, but the question is how long this, and even lower prices, can be maintained.

Prices at the pump have been kept out of crisis range, but some are warning that this may be only temporary, as reserves are being drained to keep prices under control. The disruption in the Persian Gulf is real enough and will affect Asian, African and some European and South American countries before the U.S. begins to feel any real pain.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.88 (-0.14)
Washington: $5.62 (-0.10)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.59 (-0.18)
Mississippi: $3.72 (-0.12)
Florida: $3.75 (-0.27)
Illinois: $4.54 (-0.20)
Pennsylvania: $4.32 (-0.15)
New York: $4.43 (-0.07)
Maryland: $3.96 (-0.20)
Michigan: $4.13 (-0.13)
Texas: $4.58 (-0.19)
Georgia: $3.79 (-0.01)

On Sunday, June 7th, there are fourteen (23) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 25 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.56) and Alaska ($5.16), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon). The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past three weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $61,809.72
Last week: $73,835.71
2 weeks ago: $76,800.00
6 months ago: $91,282.38
One year ago: $105,525.30
Five years ago: $35,479.57

Tough week for bitcoin and other crypto "hodlers", as the price of completely phony currency dropped more than $10,000. Bitcoin briefly dipped into the 50s Friday, touching $59,348. With any luck, this marks the beginning of the end for bogus money. The world already has enough fake currencies. There's literally no need for anything else.

Bitcoin's price has dipped into an area of support which held up as resistance through most of 2024 before ramping higher. The area is defined as roughly between $53,000 and $65,000, the latter figure having served as resistance relative to highs from 2021. This area is now support, though from a chartist's perspective, it doesn't appear capable of holding very long. While many of the world's honored institutions are under pressure and being questioned, why is there any faith in this short term fiction?

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 63.80; last week: 60.30

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90
Gold price 6/5: $4,353.90

Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58
Silver price 6/5: $68.00

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94
Gold 6/5: $4,327.57

Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27
Silver 6/5: $67.83

There's no good reason that gold and silver would go down more than stocks like they did on Friday and have been for the past six months other than COMEX and the LBMA continuing their successful derivate suppression of precious metals as opposed to worthless fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, the euro, yen, and pound.

The United States is alone in its demand that gold and silver not appreciate against paper currencies. This condition, more than 50 years old, is likely to persist for another number of years, which is why the suggestion to sell part of one's holdings remains a viable strategy from a short-term perspective. It is not something anybody with a generational view should perform, however, as gold and silver routinely out-perform - and outlive - fiat currencies every time. If you hold it, you own it, regardless of what the authorities have in mind.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	74.99	89.00	79.68	78.31
1 oz silver bar:	78.03	90.10	81.73	81.39
1 oz gold coin:	4485.95	4689.11	4596.25	4586.87
1 oz gold bar:	4507.63	4587.17	4532.98	4522.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) fell to its lowest level since December, 2025, from $86.55 on May 31, to $80.28 on June 7, a loss of $6.27 per troy ounce, well below the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Boy, was the first week of June fun! Unless one was heavily exposed to momentum stocks, gold, silver, or fixed income (which wasn't as hard hit), it was something of a bummer, but, as has been the case since 2020, most of these things bounce back and in some rather large ways. Anybody who thinks this week's profit-taking dump was the beginning of the end for the stock market rally simply hasn't been paying attention. There is likely to be a dead cat bounce on Monday and resumption of stock frenzy in the week ahead. Taht pesky Fed has an FOMC meeting coming up next Tuesday and Wednesday, but the week ahead appears to be a "buy-the-dip" opportunity.

At the Close, Friday, June 5, 2026:
Dow: 50,866.78, -695.15 (-1.35%)
NASDAQ: 25,709.43, -1,121.53 (-4.18%)
S&P 500: 7,383.74, -200.57 (-2.64%)
NYSE Composite: 23,256.50, -316.27 (-1.34%)

For the Week:
Dow: -165.68 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: -1263.19 (-4.68%)
S&P 500: -196.32 (-2.59%)
NYSE Composite: -35.67 (-0.15%)
Dow Transports: +503.22 (+2.35%)

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

NASDAQ Slides, Stock Market Surprised at May Non-Farm Payrolls as Wild Week Concludes

As usual, the first Friday of the month brings forward the BLS with the monthly non-farm payroll data, the survey for May showing a steady, if not astoundingly-robust labor market:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Employment in financial activities declined.

Perhaps even more surprising were the revisions. March was revised up by 29,000, from +185,000 to +214,000, and the change for April was revised up by 64,000, from +115,000 to +179,000. Is the investing world to believe that employment has grown by 565,000 jobs in the last three months after losing 150,000 jobs in February? Well, OK, though the futures market was not impressed.

Dow futures dropped back to unchanged on the release, while the S&P slumped, down more than 50 points and the NASDAQ, which was already down sharply, down 450 heading for the open.

For the week, the Dow is up 529 points as of Thursday's close. The NASDAQ, in an up-and-down scenario, has dropped just 23 points, and the S&P is up 30.

NASDAQ looking pretty ugly after South Korea's KOSPI slid sharply overnight.

So far, June has not been a joy. Friday should be full of fireworks.

At the Close,Thirsday, June 4, 2026:
Dow: 51,561.93, +874.86 (+1.73%)
NASDAQ: 26,830.96, -23.02 (-0.09%)
S&P 500: 7,584.31, +30.63 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 23,572.77, +296.28 (+1.27%)

Wall Street Scary Plunge Nothing to Concern Traders; Gold, Silver Rebound; Bitcoin At Lowest Level Since October 2024

Is this the beginning of the end for bitcoin, and, by extension, the entire crypto universe?

The grandaddy of so-called crypto-currencies dropped below $62,000, a level not seen since October 2024, when it was on its way to an all-time high above $124,000. That's a 50% loss since October, 2025, and it is scaring off would-be speculators who still, somehow, imagine bitcoin as the ultimate alternative to fiat currencies.

Put up or shut up time has come for the digital vaporware floating around the ether. Bitcoin has not gained the kind of mass adoption for which ardent admirers had expected. Instead, it's been nothing more than a fantasy, as the cyrpto universe hasn't managed to assert bitcoin as a viable means of exchange, a store of value, or, for that matter, anything other than a token trinket in a world awash with speculative bubbles.

Further drops in the "value" of a single bitcoin should be expected, unless, like just about everything else in this cockeyed financial system, insider big money wishes to keep it propped up and seemingly viable. Those who believe bitcoin, now 17 years old, is just a reincarnation of tulip mania, consider the real value of a currency that has no intrinsic value and cannot be seen nor touched to be somewhere in the vicinity of zero. They may soon have a case in point.

Wednesday's Wall Street slaughter wasn't nearly as bad as it looked. Of the big three indices, only the Dow (-1.21%) was down by more than one percent. The NASDAQ and S&P were down, 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. In other words, they're about where they were a week ago, suggesting that there was no panic over war re-emerging in the Middle East or the U.S. economy suddenly sliding into recession. In fact, just about nobody on or near Wall Street believes a recession is anywhere to be seen in the next six to 12 months. The biggest concern is inflation, and, seriously, nobody is sweating that very much at all.

Heading into Thursday's session, Dow futures are up sharply, +468, while NASDAQ futures are markedly lower, -310, whilc ethe S&P occupies the middle ground, down about 22 points. Brent crude is dropping, down to $94.74 per barrel, while WTI is lower, at $92.61. Both had spiked a bit higher on Wednesday, but traders saw that the escalation in the Middle East is likely to be contained and that any talk of an oil shortage is being dismissed as bad rumor, as both Iran and the U.S. are quietly allowing a limited flow of oil to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, for now, in a display of inside baseball, a la politics trumping militarism.

Gold and silver are rebounding after their regular mid-week spanking. Gold is pricing at $4,507, silver, $74.79, on the spot market.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 225,000 this morning, the highest in three months, but still in a range of complacency. People will get excited if the numbers begin to pop over 250,000 and especially if they top 300,000 consistently. That would signal a problem for the Fed, which would want to stimulate, though they couldn’t, because inflation is still running hot, though that is not the situation today. Tomorrow's May Non-farm Payroll report may offer more clarity on the employment situation.

All's well. People do take profits.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 3, 2026:
Dow: 50,687.07, -620.72 (-1.21%)
NASDAQ: 26,853.98, -239.92 (-0.89%)
S&P 500: 7,553.68, -56.10 (-0.74%)
NYSE Composite: 23,276.49, -204.44 (-0.87%)

Stocks Continue Gains Despite Mideast Tensions; Gold, Silver Remain Underinvested, Rangebound; Bitcoin Headed to Crypto Hell

A number of items that could lead stock trades on Wednesday include:

• ADP reporting 122,000 jobs were added in May, topping expectations by 2,000, resulting in the largest monthly jobs gain since January 2025.
• President Trump rolling out new tariffs on 60 trading partners, citing forced labor as the root cause.
• Escalation in the Middle East, with Iran retaliating against U.S. assaults overnight, striking American bases in Gulf countries and hitting the airport in Kuwait, causing multiple casualties.

The ADP report comes on the heels of Tuesday's JOLTS report from the BLS:

The number of job openings increased to 7.6 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations decreased to 5.1 million and 5.0 million, respectively. Within separations, both quits (3.0 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.

As has been the case since liberation day and its semi-reversal last April, tariffs don't seem to be having any negative affect on stocks, though some of the additional costs have been adding to inflationary pressures. Nobody in any official capacity seems to mind, at the White House, Capitol Hill, or at the Fed. Americans just are supposed ot suck it up and keep working because the economy is so robust. There's almost no mention of inflation in the mainstream media on a regular basis as it's become part of the routine. Americans should just accept that the prices of everything will fluctuate and eventually move higher. That's the deal.

Tensions with Iran and the Middle East scene as a whole are cut from the same cloth, though they get more media coverage. Overall, however, the situation continues to ebb and flow with the White House and State Department continuing to insist that a peace deal with the Persian nation is at hand. That kind of "imminent" talk has been bandied about for the past month. Always, it has come to be meaningless and the warring is likely to persist through the summer. Though the president keeps insisting he wants the war to end, he's said the same about Ukraine. Both conflicts match the construct of "forever wars", of which the American public has grown weary. The MIC, however, is happily riding war profits (which used to be a crime).

With U.S. markets opening within minutes, stock futures are mixed, with the Dow down 200, the S&P down 16 points, and the NASDAQ up 18 points. WTI crude oil futures are slightly elevated, reaching upwards of $95/barrel. Gold and silver are both down, but remain within recent ranges.

There is absolutely nothing to worry about from an investment perspective. Stocks are in a kind of sweet spot that has rarely been seen before. 55,000 on the Dow this year is not out of the question, as it would be less than a 10% gain from current levels. The NASDAQ and S&P should also continue making records. There's an incredible amount of support by current shareholders and momentum chasers.

Bitcoin, down more than $15,000 the past month, appears to be headed for the asset wood chipper.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 2, 2026:
Dow: 51,307.79, +228.91 (+0.45%)
NASDAQ: 27,093.90, +7.09 (+0.03%)
S&P 500: 7,609.78, +9.82 (+0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 23,480.92, +145.77 (+0.62%)

Stocks Continue Upward on Strong Momentum. Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Victoria's Secret Each Up More then 30% Pre-Market

The first trading session of June started out just the way most other sessions on the stock market have this year, with an upside move that left the major indices at all-time closing highs. The momentum that has carried the stocks for months - AI, war, Donald Trump tweets - all added to the festivities, but, in the end, the gains were insignificant. Eventually, as with all bubble rallies - and this being the biggest of all - there will come a top. It could be today, tomorrow, or any day in the future.

Current indications are that stocks have not reached the apex point. The Shiller PE (CAPE) added another 0.12, closing the day at 42.78, inching ever closer to the all-time high of 44.19 (Dec. 1999). One would be well-served to keep a close eye on the Shiller PE, as it is nearly a certainty that the current rally in stocks will send it to the ultimate all-time record. Figuring somewhere around a range 47-50 on this measure would call for the top above 8,000 on the S&P, with the possibility of a slight pullback before galloping into the stock market stratosphere. It is simply too easy to buy, take gains, and reinvest without any pretense of risk or valuation. The entire market is hyped with momentum and that momentum is not about to slow down. Not before the Shiller PE reaches a fresh all-time high should anybody be considering selling and staying out of the market. Selling and re-investing profits is absolutely the trade today, and likely for months ahead.

after the close Monday, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) reported first quarter earnings, skyrocketing 30% on the company's biggest earnings beat since 2018. This kind of bounce higher has been de rigeur for many tech and tech-related stocks. Gains of 10% or more on earnings announcements have drive stocks to incredible heights. One most recent was Dell, which soared more han 100 points - from 318 to 321 - on Friday of last week (May 29). Nothing short of an outright doubling (100% gain) in one day is surprising in this environment.

Tuesday before the open, a few more companies reported: Victoria's Secret (VSCO) - shares up 40% on blowout quarter Signet Jewelers (SIG) - higher Q1 profit than estimated, company raises outlook, stock up 7% pre-market Donaldson Filtrations Systems (DCI) - record sales, raises forecast, shares ahead by 2% Dollar General (DG) - earnings beat, raises forecat, shares up 5%

From the looks of just these few reports, it would appear that the good times are not limited to only the tech sector, though reinvested money from profitable trades in that sector may be spilling over into other parts of the market, in particular, consumer goods, as illustrated by Victoria's Secret, Signet Jewelers, and Dollar General just today.

While the idea that shoppers are looking for food bargains might scare off some potential trades, the counterweight is supplied by the other two stocks, hawking lingerie and bling. From that perspective, the money spigot is wide open (thanks largely to a $2 trillion budget deficit in the government's 2026 fiscal year. More hits from the ever-ready-to-spend U.S. congress are sure to keep coming.

Never mind that there are two wars underway. In fact, the conflicts in Ukraine and the Mideast align rightly with the welfare/warfare national economy firing on all cylinders.

The party continues, even in gold and silver, which are both sporting gains of one percent or more this morning. Futures are pointing in terms of opposite direction, however, with Dow futures off 200 points, NASDAQ futures down 33, and S&P futures down 14 points. After Monday's high of $94, WTI crude futures are back down to bouncing around $91. Nobody is willing to panic at this point, even though much of the global oil infrastructure has been severely damaged and flows out of the Persian Gulf have slowed to a crawl.

All the same, it seems, except for bitcoin, which is getting slaughtered, down below $70,000 right after Strategy CEO Michael Saylor sold a load of the cyrpto "asset."

At the Close, Monday, June 1, 2026:
Dow: 51,078.88, +46.42 (+0.09%)
NASDAQ: 27,086.81, +114.19 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 7,599.96, +19.90 (+0.26%)
NYSE Composite: 23,335.16, +42.99 (+0.18%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Iran-U.S. Stalemate Has Brought Oil and Gas Prices Down Though Future Remains Uncertain; Gold, Silver Stuck in Ranges; Employment Numbers Out Friday

As has been the case for weeks, the White House continues to tease peace negotiations with Iran, without any tangible results. The administration continues to reject Iran's various responses and demands with impunity. One would almost believe that the U.S. simply doesn't want to make a deal or come to any kind of semi-permanent structural agreement with Iran, the U.S. faction always backpedaling to cries of "Iran can't have a nuclear weapon!"

Not wishing to be swayed by U.S. demands, the Iranians continue to harp on about sovereignty, rights, and obligations to their people concerning enrichment of nuclear material which they do not desire to relinquish. That appears to be the main sticking point, neither side seemingly incapable of making concessions on the issue.

So, that's the way it's likely to stay, neither side giving in; the Iranians having a degree of control over what passes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Americans having some control over what continues through the Gulf of Oman and into the Indian Ocean via their blockade. Both sides appear content with that arrangement, for now.

The standoff could extend much further into the future than most analysts believe. It is n't hard to imagine the U.S. and Iran remaining in a long-lasting feud stretching past the midterms and into 2027. From a historical perspective, that is exactly what should happen. There was a war, however short and brutal, that is merely suspended by a tenuous ceasefire. Both sides continue to take potshots and random attacks, falling short of anything that would trigger a resumption of full military action. The U.S. can't get its navy close enough to Iran's shoreline to affect any kind of military retreat and Iran has essentially no navy or air force by which to wage an oceanic confrontation. The U.S. lacks the willingness to attempt a ground invasion and has no place safe enough to assemble the necessary force in advance of an invasion, besides it being a suicide mission.

That's the nutshell version. There's certainly more going on behind the scenes that neither side is willing to disclose publicly, but, considering the logistical implications, countries highly dependent on imported oil from the Middle East will find themselves short-shrifted and facing rationing and shutdowns of industry. The U.S. doesn't care. They have all the oil and energy resources they need. Iran does as well. Nothing in the calculus of the global energy infrastructure is going to change the situation in any reasonable manner.

There will be crisis management in most countries at some level, but, there's still enough oil coming from other places to compensate. The U.S. is more than willing to sell oil to anybody, even China, for instance, and they've managed ot keep prices in the U.S. at somewhat manageable, though high, levels.

Two things for certain about the end game: Inflation and slower productivity, perhaps recession in many countries all within the same time frame. Play on.

Stocks

Another banner week for stocks sent the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P to record levels.

There's so much loose money afloat that any thoughts of shorting the market or seeking a dip by which to buy in seem like pure pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams. Profitable trades are turned right back into more speculation and momentum-building. With gold and silver stalled at fairly high levels and treasuries becoming an orphan to the system, stocks are actually a reasonable place to invest, if one can hold one's nose long enough to discourage thoughts about valuations and fundamentals.

It's a party so long as the government continues its runaway deficit spending and the Fed doesn't push back hard against rising levels of inflation. The Shiller PE ended the week at 42.66, the highest level since April, 2000, and the second-highest on record. Anybody who pays the slightest bit of attention to this measure can clearly understand the mechanism by which stock markets are functioning, highly-inflated valuations serving a momentum trade for the ages. All indications are pointing to higher stock prices amid an inflationary environment that is setting people's hair on fire, in grocery stores, gas stations, and just about everywhere else.

It's not going to stop until it does. The trick is to get out somewhere near the top because history teaches that there will undoubtably be a top, followed by a massive unwinding. Bear with it.

The week ahead brings more stragglers reporting first quarter 2026 results. The focus will be mostly on Dollar General on Tuesday, and Macy's on Wednesday. Lululemon will get some play from the trendy workout apparel crowd Thursday.

Monday: (before open) SAIC (SAIC); (after close) Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Credo (CRDO)

Tuesday: (before open) Victoria's Secret (VSCO), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Donaldson Filtrations Sstems (DCI), Dollar General (DG); (after close) PicPay (PICS), PetMeds (PETS), Gitlab (GTLB), Paloalto Netowrks (PANW), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)

Wednesday: (before open) Medtronic (MDT), Macy's (M), Ollie's ((OLLI), THOR (THO); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Petco (WOOF), Broadcom (AVGO), Crowdstrike (CRWD)

Thursday: (before open) Brown Forman (BF.B), Ciena (CIEN), Toro (TTC); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Docusign (DOCU)

Friday: (before open) ABM (AMM)

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View. Highlights include Tuesday's JOLTS (job openings), ADP's Private Employer Report for May on Wednesday, Challenger Job Cuts and the Fed Balance Sheet on Thursday, and the May Non-Farm Payroll release prior to the market opening Friday. Non-farm payrolls for May 2026 are expected to increase modestly, with consensus estimates around +60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate likely remaining near 4.4%, with the analyst range between zero and +95,000.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
04/24/2026	3.69	3.72	3.71	3.69	3.69	3.71	3.67
05/01/2026	3.71	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.76	3.71	3.73
05/08/2026	3.71	3.70	3.68	3.69	3.75	3.74	3.75
05/15/2026	3.71	3.70	3.69	3.69	3.76	3.77	3.82
05/22/2026	3.72	3.69	3.69	3.68	3.78	3.79	3.86
05/29/2026	3.72	3.71	3.71	3.69	3.78	3.78	3.79

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
04/24/2026	3.78	3.80	3.92	4.10	4.31	4.88	4.91
05/01/2026	3.88	3.91	4.02	4.20	4.39	4.96	4.97
05/08/2026	3.90	3.92	4.02	4.19	4.38	4.93	4.95
05/15/2026	4.09	4.14	4.26	4.43	4.59	5.14	5.12
05/22/2026	4.13	4.18	4.27	4.41	4.56	5.06	5.07
05/29/2026	3.98	4.06	4.13	4.27	4.45	4.98	4.99

Notes and bonds were bought last week, bringing down yields while spreads remained well within current ranges. 2s-10s widened slightly to +47. The 30-day-30-year full spectrum spread narrowed to +127. These reflect very manageable conditions for banking interests, though hardly of a nature suggesting rapid expansion of lending. Spreads remain a bit tight, though they are a vast improvement from the post-Covid era, 2021-23.

The next FOMC meeting being the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, June 16-17, will be supplied with enough employment, wage, and inflation data (CPI, PPI) to formulate a rational policy which would likely feature the beginning of a hiking expedition to tamp down the inflation genie, which has surely escaped from the bottle. Warsh is keenly aware of this and will suffer the president's displeasure if he so chooses to go the "Volker" route. President Trump would prefer he stand down and allow inflation to take off. The stock market gains and inflated figures across the government data sets make him look good.

Something is going to go snap unless Warsh does the right thing and ignores the politics, a tall order.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127

Oil/Gas

Thanks to the ongoing White House narrative of "nearing a deal" in the Iran conflict and no notable supply disruptions, WTI Crude Oil finished the week in New York at $87.76, down sharply from last Friday’s New York closing price of $97.00, which seems, on the surface, insanity, but is actually somewhat logical.

Nearly 25% of daily output is being cut off at the Strait of Hormuz and in the Indian Ocean. Oil prices on the global setting have risen from the 60s to the 90s, a gain of somewhere in the range of 33%. It's just makes sense to frame the disruption in this manner, as opposed to panic pricing in the $120-150 range. It's holding for now because traders do not want to get caught with too large a position either short or long as the futures market has been bounced around like a tennis ball at Wimbledon the past few months.

While the price of WTI crude has kept in a range from $90-$110 recently, this week's move below that level indicates that markets and traders are satisfied that any crisis has been averted and there's still enough - despite reports of dwindling stockpiles - to remain somewhat stable, for now. There is no certainty regarding a final outcome, so it's just simply day-trading, complete with wrinkles and nuances.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.50 last week and $4.29 this week, a significant change.

Somehow, the powers that be have managed to keep prices at the pump out of crisis range. Americans, having been through gas price hikes in the recent past, know how to adjust, and, with summer driving season dead ahead, expect more "close to home" vacations this year and maybe even some mention of the loathsome "stay-cations" which require no travel and no gas, spending that spare change on better eats and home-grown fun. Might not be so bad.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.02 (-0.08)
Washington: $5.72 (-0.06)
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.77 (-0.20)
Mississippi: $3.84 (-0.11)
Florida: $4.03 (-0.34)
Illinois: $4.74 (+0.13)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.15)
New York: $4.50 (-0.07)
Maryland: $4.16 (-0.33)
Michigan: $4.26 (-0.28)
Texas: $4.77 (-0.25)
Georgia: $3.80 (-0.16)

On Sunday, May 24th, there are fourteen (14) states with average prices below $4.00, a large move from just five last week, with 34 above the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.63) and Alaska ($5.20), four above $5 (California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon), and one above $6 (California). The Southeast has become the lowest region overall over the past two weeks as a gallon of unleaded regular is averaging well below $4.00 in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $73,835.71
Last week: $76,800.00
2 weeks ago: $78,015.76
6 months ago: $85,807.97
One year ago: $104,494.50
Five years ago: $35,525.93

Look at those numbers. Bitcoin as an investment is just plain horrible. There seems to be no reason whatsoever to hold this vaporous "asset" (using the term very, very loosely in this instance) for any longer than it takes ot dispose of it.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 60.30; last week: 59.73

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 5/1: $4,625.60
Gold price 5/8: $4,723.70
Gold price 5/15: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/22: $4,543.60
Gold price 5/29: $4,569.90

Silver price 5/1: $75.84
Silver price 5/8: $80.83
Silver price 5/15: $76.29
Silver price 5/22: $75.92
Silver price 5/29: $75.58

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 5/1: $4,612.97
Gold 5/8: $4,714.90
Gold 5/15: $4,539.72
Gold 5/22: $4,508.74
Gold 5/29: $4,538.94

Silver 5/1: $75.34
Silver 5/8: $80.35
Silver 5/15: $75.94
Silver: 5/22: $75.48
Silver 5/29: $75.27

Gold and silver spent a third straight week rotating around a range of recent lows, gold at $4,500, with silver at $75, strangely suspicious prices suggesting these are key levels for derivative traders in futures markets wishing to contain prices of currencies alternative to the U.S. dollar.

While it is perfectly not all right to suppress competition, that's what the COMEX and LBMA does, and has done for the past 50-odd years, and there's little reason to believe they won't continue the practice, pretending that regional markets - with regional pricing mechanisms - in places like Shanghai, St. Petersburg, Dubai, and Singapore don't exist.

Those markets do indeed exist, though for casual buyers and stackers in the Western world, they are largely unreachable, and, for all practical purposes, useless. It would make little sense to transport small amounts of precious metals to markets in search of better prices unless those prices were significantly higher. A five dollar deviation in the price of silver or $100 in gold is not incentive enough to move physical metal.

Given that gold and silver have recently reached levels only dreamt about in years past, taking some profits at this point might not be such a bad idea, but only if one has sufficient metal in storage at the end of the day, a firm rationale for re-investment of any returns and a tax strategy. For those playing by the rules, such action would incur a high capital gains tax burden - a 28% hit in most cases - since gold and silver are treated as collectibles by the IRS.

That particular kind of IRS rule-making garbage is reason enough to hold onto gold and silver until either the IRS disappears or the U.S. government loses the ability to track and control money flows. Don't hold your breath waiting. Since gold and silver are thus encumbered by tyrannical government edicts, the obvious choice is to keep those assets close at hand and quietly pass them on to the next generation or use them as currency in surreptitious manners. Who knows, maybe your favorite plumber, electrician, gardener, or mechanic would like to add a little to his or her stack.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	75.00	100.00	87.03	86.00
1 oz silver bar:	75.00	122.01	91.23	81.92
1 oz gold coin:	4587.64	4887.05	4760.76	4760.05
1 oz gold bar:	4670.25	4785.40	4740.98	4739.95

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) dipped modestly, to $86.55, a loss of 90 cents from the May 24 price of $87.45 per troy ounce, well within the recent range.

WEEKEND WRAP

Election politicking may actually be beneficial to the American people. With the Republicans in power, they have a vested interest in keeping inflation somewhat under control, so they're hell-bent on doing whatever it takes to keep inflation down until November. After that, most senators and house representatives will care less, likely much less. Whether they are able to thread the needle between high prices and a stalled economy is the big question. So far, they seem to be succeeding.

At the Close, Friday, May 29, 2026:
Dow: 51,032.46, +363.49 (+0.72%)
NASDAQ: 26,972.62, +55.15 (+0.20%)
S&P 500: 7,580.06, +16.43 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,292.17, -10.10 (-0.04%)

For the Week:
Dow: +452.76 (+0.90%)
NASDAQ: +628.65 (+2.39%)
S&P 500: +106.59 (+1.43%)
NYSE Composite: +66.42 (+0.29%)
Dow Transports: +642.90 (+3.10%)

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