Money Daily: 2026

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Stocks Slip After Earnings Fail to Inspire Market Confidence; Housing Market in Decline with Starts Down 5.2% in September

Anticipating strong earnings from a number of bellwether stocks later in the week, Monday's gains on the NASDAQ will ultimately turn out ot be superfluous. Like a poor running line on a race horse in the past performances, one might just as well draw a line through the day's results because they were based on nothing more than seeing how high a dead cat could bounce.

The earnings reports that will dominate the week began sorting themselves out after the close late Monday when some smaller, less-tech-related companies reported third quarter results:

Steel Dynamics (STLD) - missed top and bottom, shares off more than 5% in pre-market action
Crown Holdings (CCK) - EPS, revenue beats, stock down 4% on poor forward guidance
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) - EPS, revenue beats, stock is flat pre-open

Tuesday, before the open, these companies reported:
3M (MMM) - small EPS beat, revenue miss for Dow component, sends shares up 2% in early trading
Hasbro (HAS) - shares up 2% pre-market for toy-maker after strong EPS, revenue beats, positive forecast for holidays
Ally Financial (ALLY) - EPS beat, shares flat
Northrop Grumman (NOC) - EPS beat, revenue miss for MIC favorite; shares flat
General Motors (GM) - top and bottom beats, forecast dull, company announces $20 billion buyback, investors balk, shares down 6%
GE Aerospace (GE) - bullish forecast after EPS, earnings beats, shares down 4%
Halliburton (HAL) - EPS, revnue beats, company highlights dividend, stock up 3-4%

After Tuesday's close, there may be fireworks with Spacex (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Chubb (CB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), and CapitalOne (COF) reporting. Stay frosty and stay tuned.

Putting Monday and Tuesday's earnings spotlight into perspective, these results were nothing special given already-high valuations in most sectors. While these companies are more mainstream economy rather than tech-related, their results suggest the economy just trundling along, growing GDP at a rate of one to two percent, but nothing to infer an overheated condition, which should be bullish against the growling angst of rate hikes at next week's FOMC meeting. Consensus says the Fed will stand pat on rates, though a 0.50% hike in December is becoming more of a worry.

Also throwing some shade on market sentiment, this morning's Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Pending Home Sales did little to instill confidence.

Housing Starts were down 5.2% in September, with August revised lower to -5.9% month-on-month. Building Permits for September were also lower, down 0.2% on a monthly basis. Another shoe to drop comes at 10:00 am, when the National Association of Realtors posts Pending Home Sales for September. The August figures showed a gain of 0.3% month over month and a flop of 4.7% year-over-year. Higher mortgage rates and high prices have contributed to the slack in the market. Single-family starts are the lowest in a year nationally.

Oil continues to be a concern as reports say two more tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran Monday night, sending WTI futures up as high as $110/barrel, catching up to Brent, which was quoted above $112. Prices on futures markets for both are off those highs prior to the opening bell on Wall Street.

France is burning, the country being wrecked by riots and mob violence, mostly coming in the form of organized youthful protestors of Arabic origin. France's CAC is down nearly five percent year-to-date with no apparent end to the violence, mostly related to upcoming elections in 2027 in which France will elect a new president and vote for delegates to their parliament. The rioting is seen by analysts to be a positive for right-leaning Marine Le Pen's National Rally party, which advocates against open immigration. Current President Emmanuel Macron is not able to run for re-election.

All of this leads to stock futures flat to slightly lower heading toward the bell. While there doesn't appear to be much to suggest stocks moving higher, there is ample supply of potholes into which investors can step if not careful.

Gold and silver continue to be depressed and suppressed. Nothing new there.

At the Close, Monday, October 19, 2026:
Dow: 51,966.03, -36.38 (-0.07%)
NASDAQ: 26,430.89, +290.85 (+1.11%)
S&P 500: 7,690.73, +31.29 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 23,967.07, -121.56 (-0.50%)

Monday, October 19, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Remain Somewhat Cool Leading Into Midterms, Though Oil Prices Have Spiked; Silver Trounced in Futures Markets; Interest Rates Tamed

Outside of the usual political grandstanding, there's little to move markets other than earnings reports, which will take center stage this week as some of the biggest publicly-traded companies report for the third quarter.

Positioning prior to the midterms remains a fool's game. There's clearly a newfound disdain for tech and AI, owing mostly to crumbling cost structures to build data centers and fund the expansion of the latest, greatest technology. Since closing at its most recent all-time high on October 6, the NASDAQ has fallen some 5.3%.

According to early voting exit polls and data, Democrats are leading Republicans as they usually do with actual Election Day now just 16 days off. By Monday, another handful of states that set the timetable for early voting at 15 days prior to the election will join the fray, with the last of the early-voting states joining in no later than the following Monday.

Whether or not one buys into the "two-party system," the results should cause more factionalism, no matter which party ends up in control of the House and Senate. The one certainty is that the White House will remain in control of the Republican party, with President Trump as its titular leader. His effectiveness in the final two years of his term in office, will be affected negatively if Democrats win just the House, and possibly catastrophically if they take the Senate as well, because then, a case for impeachment might actually result in his removal from office, or, as was the case with Richard M. Nixon, he could be forced into resignation by his own party, saving the country from the horrors of an impeachment trial, though neither party seems to be disposed to forego such delectable drama.

So, stocks will move the market this week, rather than politics, which is as it should be.

Stocks

Only the Dow Industrials and NYSE Composite managed gains this week as fears of a financial AI implosion hounded the tech sector and sent the NASDAQ and S&P lower. The movement was most pronounced on the NAZ, though it is nowhere near panic stages. That will likely come after choose one: a) the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; b) the midterms, or; c) the December 8-9 FOMC meeting.

One way or another, the delicate dancing narrative that the Republican party has contrived won't survive a political shakeup nor will it prosper under higher interest rates at the federal funds level. The elephant in the room being the extreme deficits now becoming de rigeur for incumbent parties on both sides of the aisle (as both the congress and the presidency are responsible parties), discussion of the bankrupting of the nation is not a debatable issue in any campaign, anywhere.

Neither side wishes to address the problem with interest on the debt amounting to an annual bill of more than $1.25 trillion, though it is likely the most important issue facing the country today, has been for at least the past five years, and will continue to be so until it is addressed or the government defaults or inflates the currency out of existence, the latter being the most likely outcome.

In the meantime, there will be less than three weeks left of shouting, finger-pointing, posturing, and name-calling on the campaign trail. Sometimes, it's better to get caught up trying to game stocks than listening to an endless stream of intelligence-insulting sloganeering.

The week ahead is one of the two biggest in terms of volume of companies reporting third quarter results:

Monday (before open): Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Fifth Third Bank (FITB); (after close) Steel Dynamics (STLD), Crown Holdings (CCK), Zions Bancorporation (ZION)

Tuesday (before open): 3M (MMM), Hasbro (HAS), Ally Financial (ALLY, Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Motors (GM), Ge Aerospace (GE), Halliburton (HAL); (after close) Spacex (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Chubb (CB), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), CapitalOne (COF)

Wednesday (before open): Northern Trust (NTRS), AT&T (T), CME Group (CME), Abbot Labs (ABT), Danaher (DHR), Philip Morris (PM); (after close): IBM (IBM), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Lam Research (LRCX), Texas Instruments (TXN), Crown Castle (CCI)

Thursday, (before open): Comcast (CMCSA), Tractor Supply (TSCO, Lockheed Martin (LMT), Nokia (NOK), Dow (DOW), Blackstone Group (BX), American Airlines (AAL), Valero (VLD); (after close): IngCentral (RING), Bloom Energy (BE), Western Digital (WDC), Verisign (VRSN), Sallie Mae (SLM), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Friday, (before open): Booze Allen (BAH), American Express (AXP), Gentex (GNTX)

On the economic front, the market will learn about Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Pending Home Sales on Tuesday, and S&P Global Flash PMI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47
10/16/2026	4.12	4.14	4.17	4.26	4.32	4.34	4.46

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60
10/16/2026	4.74	4.82	4.89	4.98	5.09	5.47	5.43

Yields cooled significantly in the week as buyer demand was satiated and possibly overbought, though the deep insider faction of government operatives cannot be fully dismissed as the cause of the abrupt relaxation. It certainly seems to be more political theater than anything else.

10-year notes yielded some 15 basis points lower than the previous Friday, and 30year bond yields dropped by 17 bips. Price action on shorter-term two-year notes was less pronounced, dropping just six basis points. Spread on 2s-10s fell to +35, and full spectrum eased to +131. The temporary easing is just that: temporary. Lower rates are likely to persist until the next FOMC meeting on October 27-28

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56
4/3: +51
4/10: +50
4/17: +55
4/24: +53
5/1: +51
5/8: +48
5/15: +50
5/22: +43
5/29: +47
6/5: +38
6/12: +37
6/18: +27
6/26: +31
7/2: +35
7/10: +35
7/17: +37
7/24: +36
7/31: +47
8/7: +46
8/14: +51
8/21: +50
8/28: +39
9/4: +41
9/11: +33
9/18: +25
9/25: +36
10/2: +45
10/9: +44
10/16: +35

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124
4/3: +120
4/10: +124
4/17: +119
4/24: +122
5/1: +126
5/8: +124
5/15: +141
5/22: +135
5/29: +127
6/5: +130
6/12: +128
6/18: +121
6/26: +117
7/2: +128
7/10: +135
7/17: +133
7/24: +136
7/31: +149
8/7: +140
8/14: +146
8/21: +147
8/28: +138
9/4: +145
9/11: +142
9/18: +137
9/25: +145
10/2: +159
10/9: +147
10?16: +131

Oil/Gas

Oil prices spiked higher, with Brent approaching $110/barrel and WTI crude futures surpassing $100 as conditions in the Middle East continue to be difficult to assess and oil flows - despite some rosy predictions and proclamations - are still down considerably.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.34 last week and $4.27 this week, though this brief respite is unlikely to last, given the higher price of crude. The midterms disaster for Republicans is unfolding at gas stations and grocery stores across the country.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.15 (-0.24)
Washington: $5.37 (-0.07)
Indiana: $3.86 (-0.06)
Oklahoma: $3.88 (-0.09)
Louisiana: $3.82 (-0.09)
Mississippi: $3.85 (-0.04)
Florida: $4.07 (-0.04)
Illinois: $4.67 (-0.04)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (+0.02)
New York: $4.37 (-0.06)
Maryland: $4.10 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.47 (-0.20)
Texas: $3.74 (-0.03)
Georgia: $3.68 (-0.09)
North Carolina $3.59 (lowest)

On Sunday, October 18, there are thirty-four (34) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with fourteen (14) below the $4 threshold, not including Hawaii ($5.61) and Alaska ($4.90), with three above $5 (California, Nevada, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 16 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 again this week ($3.59-3.88) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices slightly higher, from $3.95 to $4.21. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $81,297.99
Last week: $82,717.91
2 weeks ago: $85,242.28
6 months ago: $72,902.99
One year ago: $107,365.60
Five years ago: $61,334.40

Bitcoin continued to slide from recent highs, the usual predictions of breakout and higher prices for the imaginary tokens were dealt with a case of interest rate reality, sending the speculators scrambling for explanations.

It's very simple. In a world full of hard-and-soft-money choices and raging inflation, vapor money isn't for everybody. In fact, most of the pricing activity in bitcoin and other crypto-currencies and tokens of faith are driven by little more than naked speculation. Once the specs are thoroughly routed, bitcoin and its brethren will return to roughly their intrinsic values, approaching zero.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 73.22; last week: 69.09

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30
Gold price 10/16: $4,186.70

Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11
Silver price 10/16: $57.13

SPOT: (kitco)
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60
Gold 10/16: $4,164.10

Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70
Silver 10/16: $56.87

Silver became much cheaper against gold, according to the gold:silver ratio, as shorts had their way on the COMEX and in London, sending silver to its lowest price in nearly a year. Gold, being more stable, held up much better, with a drop in price on the spot market of less than $30 per ounce. By comparison, silver was shattered, losing nearly $4/ounce, a 6.3% move, week to week.

The price decline in silver represents nothing more than seasonal bets and concerted efforts to drive the price lower in the derivatives markets. A shortage of silver supply still exists, though it was easier for short sellers to take command over the course of the week - and over the past eight months - because of rising interest rates. The quoted spot prices, derived from COMEX leveraged bets, has less to do with supply and demand and more to do with commitment of traders who see the metal as a trade rather than a commodity in demand.

Being much more volatile than gold's price, which is dominated by central bank buying of the metal as a reserve holding, silver's price decline may contnue over the short term with industrial demand the main price component rather than silver being considered a monetary metal. In most circles, it is not greatly considered for its monetary qualities, a common error in today's derivative suppression regime. Movement in the GSR makes silver the preferable investment at the present time.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	61.99	79.99	66.00	64.83
1 oz silver bar:	65.23	79.93	70.48	70.67
1 oz gold coin:	4301.90	4537.50	4414.94	4404.40
1 oz gold bar:	4331.87	4438.04	4369.27	4356.90

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was wallopped this week, dropping to $68.00, a mammoth loss of $6.20 per troy ounce from the October 11 price of $74.20.

WEEKEND WRAP

With just about two weeks until the votes begin a final and the makeup of the U.S. House and Senate are resolved, stocks will be more in focus than politics, with a huge batch of earnings reports on the week. Stocks have shown weakness over the past week plus, but there's a good chance that the indices will maintain resilience until the elections. After that, markets may become more of a free-for-all, with a multitude of changes on the horizon dependent of the direction of voting. Polls are still leaning the Democrats way, but the Republican narrative machine continues to assert its considerable will on the media.

Anything - and maybe everything - goes in less than 20 days.

At the Close, Friday, October 16, 2026:
Dow: 52,002.41, -175.28 (-0.34%)
NASDAQ: 26,140.03, -572.99 (-2.14%)
S&P 500: 7,659.44, -84.62 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 24,088.63, +21.98 (+0.09%)

For the Week:
Dow: +347.46
NASDAQ: -1226.14
S&P 500: -152.10
NYSE Composite: +149.53
Dow Transports: -75.69

Disclaimer: Information disseminated on this site should not be construed as investment advice. Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily and it's owners, affiliates and/or employees are not investment advisors and do not offer specific investment advice. All investments have risk. You should consult a professional investment advisor or stock broker or use your individual judgement when making investment decisions. By viewing this site, you hold harmless Downtown Magazine Inc., Money Daily, its owners, affiliates and employees against any and all liability. Copyright 2026, Downtown Magazine Inc., all rights reserved.

Friday, October 16, 2026

Stocks Ignore Inflation, Oil, Gas Prices, and Discouraging Earnings Reports from Financials as Midterms Loom

Stocks shook off the inflation news from the past two days of September CPI and PPI readings above expectations. By most standards, those inflation numbers were about the worst news Wall Street could have received. On a scale of 1-10, both figures came in at about 8 or 9. What’s worse, is that most savvy Wall Street investors understand just how understated the inflation metrics really are.

Given that information, however, stocks, after a slow start, rallied for the duration of the session, turning red to green and also ignoring the rising prices of oil and gasoline. Maybe the masters of the universe who ply markets with seemingly unlimited amounts of money know something nobody else does. An alternate argument can be made that these ongoing distortions in market dynamics are all tied to politics, specifically, the midterm elections on November 3rd.

So, the end of the week arrives with the major indices split, the Dow and S&P positive, but the NASDAQ down 653 points. Investors are poring over the last of the week's earnings reports.

After Thursday's close, these companies reported:
Alcoa (AA) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares higher by 4% pre-market
Simmons Bank (SFNC) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares flat
Interactive Brokers (IBKR) - EPS miss, revenue beat, shares off one percent
J.B. Hunt (JBHT) - EPS beat, revenue beat, shares down 3%

On Friday, before the open:
M&T Bank (MTB) - EPS beat, revenue in line, shares off one percent
Truist Financial (TFC) - EPS miss, stock down 1-2%
Citizens Financial Group (CFG) - EPS beat, shares down 2%
Regions Financial (RF) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares up 1-2%
Travelers (TRV) - EPS, revenue beats, shares down 4.5%

The recurring theme for mainly bank stocks this quarter has been winning on EPS, but coming up short on revenue. Apparently, banks of all sizes are making more money on higher interest rates, but, with lower revenue. Spreads on interest-sensitive loans are good for business, but they aren't writing new loans, which would make sense, given higher mortgage and small business loan rates.

The larger banks that reported earlier in the week have also shown weakness. Over the past month, led by Bank of America's 10.71% decline, JP Morgan (-3.84%), Goldman Sachs (-4.98%), Wells Fargo (-4.94%) and Citigroup (-7.33%) are all down, indicating stress in the banking system. What's spurring the selling, besides nose-bleed prices, are fears of a breakdown in AI-related and commercial real estate loans, both of which have been nder pressure, along with the nagging low revenue story. If banks aren't making loans, the economy isn't moving and a recession may be close at hand.

The case for the one Dow component reporting Friday, Travelers (TRV), is unusual in that the stock is sitting near all-time highs, and posted strong results outside of what they call "catastrophe losses", which increased 34% in the quarter just ended. That seems to be just a part of the story. Profit-taking on a stock that is up 32% year-to-date completes the picture.

With the opening bell a half hour ahead, futures are mixed, with the Dow and S&P up and the NASDAQ lower, but only by 40 points or so.

Gold and silver continue to recover as bond yields have slipped lower the past few days. Gold is holding small gains this morning around $4,178, and silver is bouncing in a range between $57.25 and $57.75.

The market remains difficult to decipher and trading volume has been down. It appears to be in a wait-and-see condition until the midterms, which runs counter to the usual activity during earnings seasons. Trading may pick up over the next two weeks, as they are the busiest on the calendar for reporting.

At the Close, Thursday, October 15, 2026:
Dow: 52,177.69, +556.21 (+1.08%)
NASDAQ: 26,713.03, +20.16 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 7,744.06, +25.12 (+0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 24,066.65, +201.22 (+0.84%)

Thursday, October 15, 2026

NASDAQ Posts Worst Decline in Four Months as AI Credit Implodes; September PPI Advances Beyond Expectations: Crude Oil Jumps; PMs Recovering

Two days into earnings season and all there is to show are losses across the major averages. This is not how the midterm game plan is supposed to work.

Things that matter may be beginning to unravel for the Republicans in their hopes to keep the "A-OK" narrative alive through Election Day, now less than three weeks off and early voting already begun in a handful of states, including Illinois, Michigan, California, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

It's difficult to believe Americans could be dumb enough to vote for the incumbents with inflation running red hot, gas prices through the roof, wars still unresolved in Ukraine and the Middle East and a party that seems only intent on getting re-elected.

“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people” - H.L. Mencken, Baltimore Sun, September 18, 1926

It could happen that the Republican party maintains its slim margins in the House and Senate, but, only because the Democrats have put up candidates that are far inferior in many voting districts and states. It seems like no matter which party wins - and be assured, there are only two choices - the American people will lose because the reality is that there is only one party - the uniparty, as some like to call it - and Republicans and Democrats are nothing more than factions of the same tax, borrow, and spend federal behemoth.

The American people don't have a choice when it comes to voting, at least at the national level. Whichever party or candidate wins an election, campaign promises and moral integrity are lost the moment he or she steps into the Capitol building. The party controls the votes; the leviathan - to use a Hobbesian metaphor - controls the narrative. Nothing changes in Washington D.C. except the occasional role players. Senators and House Reps alike toe the government line. The behemoth swallows them all.

“The worship of the state is the worship of force. There is no more dangerous menace to civilization than a government of incompetent, corrupt, or vile men. The worst evils which mankind ever had to endure were inﬂicted by bad governments. The state can be and has often been in the course of history the main source of mischief and disaster.” ― Ludwig von Mises, Bureaucracy

The longer this system of overwhelming government control survives, the worse off will be the fates of millions of Americans. It's become routine for congress and whatever entity is occupying the White House to pass legislation the public is adamantly against. Wars are started without weighing the consequences. Infrastructure bills are little more than handouts to loyalists. The government exerts more control, leading to a point at which a large segment of the public becomes apathetic toward voting and government and begins to drift towards a more reckless level of anarchy, one that dismisses government laws and regulations as little more than impediments against their own goals to live in a just, honest society.

Eventually, as is the emerging state of play in Europe, the taxes, the surveillance, the limits on freedom and liberty become too much for the general public to bear and the leviathan government is perplexed that their "perfect" system of control no longer functions as planned. This is the future of America: a country balkanized by regions, sects, and beliefs, an incongruous mass without an underlying, unifying force, the government's promises seen as empty slogans, its power diminished by its own hubris. The process unfolding happens over decades. America is within 20 years of the need for radical change, maybe even closer than that, lest it completely lose its identity and world standing.

So, as Thursday's opening bell approaches, the pundits and blabbers in the finacial media continue to talk the good talk, all the while, the investor class is walking away. Stocks are already wildly overpriced and breadth in the market favors only a few of the more popular issues, and even those are under assault.

Wednesday saw the worst daily performance on the NASDAQ in Four months, fueled by a CPI reading that was worse than expectations and a meltdown of one of the AI darlings, Coreweave (CRWV), which lost 15% on the day and is down nearly 2/3rds since its all-time high in June, 2025. The company's business model is under scrutiny, its funding under assault. Coreweave's credit default swaps (CDS) blew out to over 1000 basis points. Other companies in the AI space such as Oracle and Softbank are seeing outsized moves in the costs to insure gainst default.

Bank stocks reporting third quarter earnings failed to provide a boost to the markets or even maintain recent levels. Now that inflation is seen as a clear and present danger, the other shoe - the AI funding bust - is dropping.

Thursday morning, these stocks reported for the third quarter:
U.S. Bancorp (USB) - EPS beat, revenue miss, stock flat pre-market
Charles Schwab (SCHW) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shared down 2%
PNC (PNC) - EPS beat, revenue miss, shares flat
Bank of New York Mellon (BNY) - Top and bottom beat, shares higher by 2-3%
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) - Top and bottom beat, shares off by 2-3%
Ericsson (ERIC) - Huge EPS, revenue beat, shares higher by 11%

These results failed to move the market needle, especially after the BLS reported September PPI was came in like a house afire:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in August and 0.2 percent in July. (See table A.) The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.

In September, prices for final demand goods rose 2.6 percent, and the index for final demand services advanced 0.8 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.0 percent.

Those numbers are wildly inflationary, since producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices. Most companies aren't about to keep prices down and absorb margin losses. No matter how the PPI is viewed, it's possibly to be enough for the Fed to move rates higher at its October 27-28 FOMC meeting. There's now a 33% chance the Fed will raise rates at the October meeting and a 92% chance of a rate hike at the December 9 meeting, with a 29% chance the hike will be 50 basis points, to 4.25-4.50%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Paradoxically, retail sales zoomed 0.8% higher in September, with gasoline purchases crowding out other consumer staples and discretionary purchases. The number is obviously not inflation-adjusted, signaling stress on consumers, especially in low and middle income groups.

All of this underscores the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, both of which are again spiraling out of control.

With the opening bell 30 minutes away, Dow futures are up 235, NASDAQ futures are down 384, S&P futures are down 24 points. WTI crude oil has broken out of its recent range and is now trading above $95/barrel. Brent crude has been well over $100/barrel for the better part of the past six weeks.

Gold and silver continue to recover after Wednesday's bloodletting.

Doesn't look very rosy, does it?

At the Close, Wednesday, October 14, 2026:
Dow: 51,621.48, -48.62 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 26,692.87, -511.53 (-1.88%)
S&P 500: 7,718.94, -86.51 (-1.11%)
NYSE Composite: 23,865.42, -119.58 (-0.50%)

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

September CPI Unacceptably High; Bank Stocks Delivering Bad News; Futures Slide as Midterm Plans Unravel

Kicking off third quarter earnings season Tuesday with the usual bold profit announcements from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, expectations for market gains were given an added boost when United Health (UNH) chimed in with a strong quarterly report.

Because all three companies are components of the Dow 30, stock futures on the Dow climbed more than 400 points prior to the opening bell.

That was all well and good, but things seemed to go a bit haywire once the cash market opened. Instead of the Dow being bid higher and higher, the world’s most widely-watched index stalled at the opening high, and spent the rest of the session meandering along, just below the unchanged line. With early gains eviscerated within the first half hour of trading, disappointment ran deep.

JP Morgan ended the day down less than one percent. Goldman Sachs finished with a loss of 1.34%. Only United Health survived with gains for the day, up 1.98 points (0.52%).

Perhaps the plans to have stocks price higher on Tuesday was a bit too ambitious given the already-extreme pricing for stocks, not just in the tech sector, but just about everywhere among the most actives. In JP Morgan's case, the reported numbers fell short of estimates, which ran contrary to the pre-midterms operations (PMO™). Goldman Sachs had no excuse, reporting beats on both top and bottom lines, other than profit taking.

It's not a coincidence that bank stocks lead off each earnings season. The accounting games played by the big money banks are legendary, their statements largely about as clear-cut as a mud hole, but, as a group, they almost always deliver positive results, offering to investors the perception of an overall growing, robust economy, led by the banks that serve as the foundation of American enterprise.

After Tuesday's rout, scratch that. The reality to which the wisened investors on Wall Street have awakened is that major banks are black holes of depository debt, sketchy loans and even sketchier accounting practices. Bank of America (BAC) opened Wednesday's pre-market action by announcing Q3 profit falling 17% on a $1.2B penalty for anti-money-laundering activity and slower trading activity. Put in simpler terms, BofA was duly engaged in money laundering, got caught and shareholders are paying the price. BAC stock is down seven percent prior to the opening bell.

In addition to Bank of America, these companies also reported Q3 results Wednesday morning:
Morgan Stanley (MS) - top, bottom beat, shares down 3% pre-market
BlackRock (BLK) - Huge EPS and revenue beat, stock up over two percent pre-market
State Street (STT) - EPS beat, revenue miss results in 9% slide
ASML (ASML) - Earnings beat, revenue miss, shares down two percent
Progressive Insurance (PGR) - shares off six percent pre-market

Additionally, Wells Fargo (WFC) missed top and bottom, sending share down 1-2 percent. Citigroup (C) topped estimates but is down 1.5% heading toward the opening bell.

Maybe the bank stocks aren't all that pristine and investable. Understanding that they serve as the foundation of American enterprise and at the whims of government and big money interests labels them as some of the most corrupt companies on the planet, responsible for all manner of crimes and misdemeanors, from money-laundering to funding for enterprises set up to fail after seed investors extract profits. Lately, the retail banks (BAC, JPM, WFC, C) have been covering their tracks by under-reporting loan loss provisions. With consumers and small businesses stretched to the edge of survivability, credit usage has surged - even at rates of 10-20-30% - and bankruptcy filings are on the rise. The banks haven't disclosed much of what's happening underneath the hood, and many are exposed to credit defaults on commercial real estate and the AI hyperscaler build-out.

Wednesday also had a nasty surprise in September CPI, delivered an hour prior to the open:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for gasoline rose 9.1 percent in September, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The energy index increased 5.2 percent over the month following a 2.1-percent increase in August. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The index for food was unchanged in September, as the index for food away from home increased 0.2 percent and the index for food at home fell 0.1 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in September, as it did in August. Indexes that increased over the month include recreation, used cars and trucks, education, airline fares, medical care, and apparel. Conversely, the index for communication was among the small number of major indexes that decreased in September.

The all items index rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September, a larger increase than the 3.4-percent increase reported for the 12 months ending in August. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year, following a 2.4-percent increase over the 12 months ending August. The energy index increased 20.4 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 2.5 percent over the last year.

Futures took a serious nose-dive on the CPI news and have not recovered as the opening bell approaches. This is not going according to plan as the possibility of another rate hike by the Fed at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting comes into play.

Presently, the markets are behaving badly, as they should, given the current conditions. Reality strikes back.

At the Close, Tuesday, October 13, 2026:
Dow: 51,670.10, -180.45 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 27,204.38, -41.52 (-0.15%)
S&P 500: 7,805.45, -1.79 (-0.02%)
NYSE Composite: 23,985.00, -5.72 (-0.02%)

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Stocks Flat for Columbus Day; United Health (UNH), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) Boost Pre-Market with Solid 3rd Quarter Results

Editor's Note: While Money Daily strives to offer financial content in a timely manner, but there is no accounting for spotty internet service or non-loading pages from sources. We apologize for today's delayed and brief report. --FR

Stocks were little changed on Monday, awaiting the first of third quarter earnings reports from leading financial institutions on Tuesday.

Capital markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

JP Morgan (JPM) delivered the usual boost, rising more than one percent prior to the open.

Goldman Sachs (GS) posted a third quarter revenue beat of 10% and delivered diluted EPS of $17.01 against an estimated $13.18. Net revenues were $18.68 billion compared to the estimated $16.89 billion.

Both companies are Dow components. As the opening bell approaches, futures are split, with Dow futures up more than 400 points, thanks largely to positive third quarter returns from United Health (UNH), up more than 4.5% in pre-market trading, along with gains from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs.

WTI Crude Oil Futures continue to maintain prices in a range from $90-93/barrel. Gold and silver are diverging Tuesday morning, with gold higher, though still below $4,200 per ounce and silver retesting lows below $60/ounce.

This all ends badly once the midterms are complete.

At the Close, Monday, October 12, 2026:
Dow: 51,850.55, +195.60 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 27,245.90, -120.27 (-0.44%)
S&P 500: 7,807.24, -4.30 (-0.06%)
NYSE Composite: 23,990.73, +51.63 (+0.22%)

Sunday, October 11, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Busy Week Ahead for Earnings, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales as Midterms Loom; Gold, Silver Recovery Underway; Yields Tamed, Though Still High

With early voting already underway, it has become imperative for the incumbent Republicans to maintain the status quo narrative, playing down inflation and high food and gas prices while maintaining a degree of allegiance to President Trump's radical foreign policies.

As the weeks wind down to the midterms, expect various distortions in news coverage, especially concerning the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which appear to be spiraling out of control. Republicans maintain a posture favoring global intervention into any and all markets and international affairs, a deadly combination of monarchial-like power and monetary intrusion. Global affairs being lower on the list of priorities for American voters than food and gas prices, the Trump administration presently is free to pursue whatever policies and processes it prefers. Once elections are over, those may change, depending on, naturally, which party is declared the winner.

In the interim, investors have third quarter earnings to keep them occupied. Major banking institutions kick off the Q3 2026 earnings season next week, with reporting heavily concentrated on Tuesday and Wednesday of the week ahead.

Rolling earnings reports over the next three weeks should provide more than enough cover for the incumbents, with corporate earnings in many sectors expected to be positive. Stocks could very well set forth to new records. There will be plenty of opportunities to chase returns prior to the midterms and probably afterward.

One other aspect to bear in mind is that a good number of investment funds will be closing their books for 2026 at the end of October, likely locking in profits for the year. Demand for stocks may suffer the consequences of higher interest rates (yields) and the upcoming FOMC meeting falls just prior to Election Day with the Fed making its penultimate rate policy decision on October 28.

Keeping all things in perspective, there's a good probability of investment institutions - outside of earnings reactions - to take an wait-and-hold position. As crazy as the world may seem in the current environment, money managers may find reason enough to stand pat for a couple of weeks and see where things lay once the dust settles.

Stocks

Stocks got the usual Friday boost, putting all of the major indices into the positive column for the week with the noable exception of the Dow Transports, which finished lower by more than one percent. The NASDAQ and S&P each finished at record highs on Tuesday, October 6, and ended the week very close to those highs. Expectations for more record closes are high over the next two to three weeks with earnings coming forward hot and heavy.

The week ahead will be dominated by banking and financial institutions with some other major companies spicing up the lineup:

Tuesday, October 13 (before open): JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs(GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Albertson's (ACI), Domino's Pizza (DPZ), United Health Group (UNH)

Wednesday, October 14 (before open): Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), ASML (ASML), Progressive Insurance (PGR)

Thursday, October 15 (before open): U.S. Bancorp (USB), Charles Schwab (SCHW), PNC (PNC), Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Ericsson (ERIC); (after close): Alcoa (AA), Simmons Bank (SFNC), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), J.B. Hunt (JBHT)

Friday, October 16 (before open): M&T Bank (MTB), Truist Financial (TFC), Citizens Financial Group (CFG), Regions Financial (RF), Travelers (TRV)

On the economic front, the market will take account of the NFIB Business Optimism Index and Existing Home Sales on Tuesday, with an important CPI reading out Wednesday prior to the opening bell, the last CPI report before both the FOMC meeting (October 27-28) and Election Day (November 3). Thursday will also be busy, with September PPI in focus, along with weekly unemployment claims, monthly reports from the NY Empire State and Philly Fed, and September Retail Sales. The weekly EIA crude and distillates report is also Thursday.

Friday's releases include Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production, plus the Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count, and U.S. Import/Export Prices.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46
10/09/2026	4.13	4.13	4.13	4.25	4.29	4.32	4.47

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63
10/09/2026	4.80	4.89	5.02	5.13	5.24	5.65	5.60

Yields dropped slightly from multi-year highs during the week past, though hardly a ringing endorsement for lower rates overall. Long-dated treasuries remain threatened by excessive corporate issuance in the AI/tech space, crowding out buyers and sending prices for treasury notes and bonds lower.

Significantly, yields on bills spiked, with one-month and three-month issues adding nine and six basis points, respectively. Those advances crimped the full spectrum spread back to +147, a 12-bip move lower. 2s-10s were static for the week, moving just one basis point lower.

Concern over high interest rates continues to be a sore spot for the U.S. Treasury. Secretary Scott Bessent's recent parlay into buybacks of government debt hardly moved anybody's core positioning. At best, he kept interest rates from spiking even higher. Under current conditions, which includes high inflation, a lack of international bidders, and stubborn buyers demanding higher yields, there's little the secretary or anybody else can do to curb an ongoing interest rate rise across the entire curve. Inflation remains a priority for the Federal Reserve, though odds of another rate hike at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting remain low, with less than 18% believing the Fed will hike rates at the upcoming meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Election politics also come into play, many believing that Chairman Warsh would dare raise rates right before the midterms.

But, no, the Fed is not politically-motivated. Also, DOGE and tariff rebate checks are in the mail.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

Oil prices continues to trend in a range of $91-93 for WTI crude on the futures market, as the incumbent party attempts to keep a lid on prices despite escalating conditions in the Middle East. How long futures markets can contain oil prices remains a major concern for President Trump and his Republican allies heading into the midterms. So far, so good, with prices holding in what's considered a somewhat reasonable range.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.33 last week and $4.34 this week, holding steady after a price drop the week prior. Lower prices at the pump are a positive for the Republican party. Early voting has already begun in some states while the price of gas remains unacceptably high. The belief by MAGA Republicans that high fuel prices are temporary will be a key consideration in midterm voting patterns.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.39 (+0.01)
Washington: $5.44 (-0.02)
Indiana: $3.92 (+0.18)
Oklahoma: $3.97 (+0.05)
Louisiana: $3.91 0.01)
Mississippi: $3.89 (-0.02)
Florida: $4.11 (+0.07)
Illinois: $4.71 (+0.06)
Pennsylvania: $4.45 (-0.02)
New York: $4.43 (-0.03)
Maryland: $4.24 (+0.03)
Michigan: $4.67 (+0.22)
Texas: $3.78 (lowest) (-0.11)
Georgia: $3.77 (-0.01)

On Sunday, October 11, there are thirty-sex (36) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twelve (12) below the $4 threshold (other than Indiana, all clustered in the Southeast), not including Hawaii ($5.64) and Alaska ($4.95), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 15 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 this week ($3.78-3.95) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.00 to $4.25. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $82,717.91
Last week: $85,242.28
2 weeks ago: $84,540.25
6 months ago: $72,892.87
One year ago: $112,530.80
Five years ago: $61,855.90

Crypto and bitcoin remain bid, though off recent highs. SSDD.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 69.09; last week: 68.59

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10
Gold price 10/9: $4,220.30

Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71
Silver price 10/9: $61.11

SPOT: (kitco)
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90
Gold 10/9: $4,193.60

Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39
Silver 10/9: $60.70

Once China's markets reopened from the Golden Week holiday on Thursday, prices for gold and silver rebounded sharply, confirming that the LBMA and COMEX had been artificially suppressing prices for precious metals on their derivative markets while the main driver and price-maker, China, was absent.

There need be no more obvious proof that price suppression, a tactic of the U.S. government and its open market agents, has continued for many years, even decades. Without the suppression mechanism, it's likely that gold would have returned to its rightful place as a neutral reserve currency many years ago, and the U.S. government forced to either abandon or revalue the U.S. dollar, the latter being the most probably circumstance.

The current alignment of Western nations acting against the best interests of honest money portends continued volatility in precious metals markets. China continues to acquire gold at a record pace along with other non-Western-aligned Asian and African nations. For PM investors in the U.S., U.K. or Europe, the handwriting could not be more obvious. The world is turning to gold as the standard of exchange and store of value for central banks and national interests. This process - of extinguishing a fiat-based reserve currency with one that has stood the test of time for thousands of years - is slow and often frustrating. Recent years, however, have shown that gold's resilience and acceptance is quite strong and growing worldwide.

Silver's condition mirrors that of gold, though at a more nuanced level. It's use as an industrial, medical, and military metal outpaces its role as a monetary one, but, given the recent levels of the gold:silver ratio (GSR) around 70 and slightly below, it's apparent that silver will follow gold's advances and declines in a somewhat orderly fashion and at some points become the value option of choice. History is filled with settlements of the GSR at levels far below those of the current environment, with most falling between 12 and 16 ounces of silver to one ounce of gold. A world in which gold and silver are finally properly valued will be one in which individuals have control over their own wealth without being subjected to the whims and mendaciousness of kings, royals, and Keynesian-inspired governments.

While China's Golden Week did not align properly with the Western Monday-Sunday regime, running from Thursday-Wednesday, there was some distortion in reported prices, which at Money Daily are either Fridays or Sundays. Thus, prices do not reflect the severe declines in gold and silver that were experienced in the early part of the week (Monday-Wednesday). One might be well-advised to look back one more week, to 9/25, for a more reasonable expectation of prices over the coming days and weeks. Additionally, once the midterms are over and done, prices may catch a serious bid in whatever aftermath presents itself in the U.S. concerning foreign, fiscal, and monetary policies.

No matter what, demand from central banks for gold and industrial uses for silver remain well anchored. Investment demand remains the missing link to the gold/silver story. Once acceptance of gold and silver becomes essential to institutions and individuals, the prices will rise accordingly. In a more sinister - and correct - sense, the further the U.S. dollar declines in purchasing power, the higher the prices of gold and silver will soar.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	67.00	79.99	73.65	73.84
1 oz silver bar:	66.00	83.87	74.48	74.81
1 oz gold coin:	4189.99	4750.00	4430.79	4408.70
1 oz gold bar:	4225.00	4472.67	4390.18	4387.49

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rebounded sharply this week, rising to $74.20 , a gain of $3.37 per troy ounce from the October 4 price of $70.87.

WEEKEND WRAP

Patience may be the key to a sensible investment strategy until the midterms, which are now just more than three weeks ahead, though early voting is already underway in a handful of states and by the end of the week will be widespread, a benchmark for early voting being 15-20 days prior to election day, putting full-on early voting roughly between October 13 and 18.

Bearing in mind that the politicians and staffs involved in various key races will be keeping tabs on exit polling, there is certainly to be a degree of media meddling and posturing by candidates. Traditional midterm metrics have incumbents (Republicans) losing 15-25 seats in the House and 3-6 sets in the Senate. Should Democrats gain control of both houses, there is likely to be a call for change in the policies of the presidential administration, though a radical shift is unlikely.

Should Democrats prevail, there's a good chance of stocks taking a hit, as most investment managers and big money power brokers prefer a more "conservative" agenda rather than looser policies of tax, borrow, and spend, though, in reality, neither party has shown any propensity for fiscal restraint.

In the end, whichever party ends up in control of the congress, government policy is unlikely to change in a positive, more austere manner. American citizens may be subject to more historical patterns, meaning more and more of the same.

At the Close, Friday, October 9, 2026:
Dow: 51,654.95, +423.31 (+0.83%)
NASDAQ: 27,366.17, +172.83 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: 7,811.54, +46.18 (+0.59%)
NYSE Composite: 23,939.10, +141.50 (+0.59%)

For the Week:
Dow: +477.99 (+0.93%)
NASDAQ: +175.31 (+0.64%)
S&P 500: +88.82 (+1.15%)
NYSE Composite: +284.79 (+1.20%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)
Dow Transports: -205.61 (-1.03%)

Friday, October 9, 2026

Markets Poised for Upside Friday, though Flat for the Week; Gold, Silver Rebound as China Reopens; Early Midterm Voting Underway

It's all about pattern recognition.

Thursday's market setup was very similar to Wednesday's, with stock futures in the red heading toward the opening bell, with interest rates spiking again, though not so violently as the previous session. Still, investors became unnerved. By 10:00 am ET, the yield on the 10-year note had struck 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.67%, but those high yields - same as Wednesday - gradually began to reverse.

It appeared everything was going according to plan, with dip-buyers stepping in shortly after 11:00 am on the Dow, but this time, the admission by Sam Altman's OpenAI that revenues had fallen short of target, kept the S&P and NASDAQ in the red doldrums. By the close, the Dow and NYSE Composite were positive, but the S&P, and, especially, the NASDAQ had sprung leaks, ending in the red.

As usual, a Trump tweet provided some cover, the president sending a message that he would not attack Iran again before the midterms. It didn't work as well as expected for stocks, but his messaging influenced oil futures enough to send WTI from above $93 to near $90.50. As Friday's tape begins, WTI is holding in a range just below $91/barrel.

Friday's stock futures are on the rise, even as Delta Airlines (DAL) posted a third quarter earnings miss, citing high fuel prices as the key element in the disappointing period.

The least surprising development was the recovery in gold and silver prices as China's markets reopened. Spot gold has bounced back above $4,200 and silver held above $60 overnight.

What will Friday's week-ending session bring?

Stock futures are positive, led by the NASDAQ, naturally, up 225 points an hour prior to the bell.

For the week, the Dow is up a paltry 54 points, the NASDAQ is up a mere three points, and the S&P is ahead by 43 points. Essentially, the major indices are flat, which is about in line with expectations from the investor class. Stocks don't have to steadily advance from here to November 3rd, they only have to not decline very much. After all, the S&P and NASDAQ both posted all-time highs on Tuesday, so staying within a few percentage points of record closings is likely to suit the needs of entrenched Republicans who wish to maintain their slim advantages in the House and Senate.

Wall Street is aligned with the incumbents, fearing that a Democrat takeover of either house of congress might disrupt their plans of market and dollar dominance. They are on shaky ground to say the least, but keeping stocks at nose-bleed levels should appease their voter base enough that they won't notice how much they're spending for gas, or steaks, or, well, just about everything else.

The plan is to keep stock prices high and oil and gas prices in an acceptable range. $6 gas in California doesn't seem to be a concern, since the state is deeply Democrat.

There are a few wild cards in play as the opening bell approaches. Late Thursday, Elon Musk's Starlink agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum licenses, aiming to combine them with its satellite-to-cell services.

The entry of Starlink into cell phone competition send shares of T-Mobile down nearly eight percent 7.7%, while Verizon and AT&T each dropped about six percent.

Hurricane Isaias is approaching the Gulf coast. Oil rigs in the region have been shut down. Landfall for what is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane comes later today. Interest rates can only be held in their current range only so long, but the party in power only as to keep them relatively benign for another three weeks. Early voting is spreading across the nation. By next week, more than half the country will have early ballot access.

Iran and the Middle East continue to be a stubborn thorn in the administration's backside and the growing unease over AI, the burgeoning CAPEX costs, and data center buildout continue to throw shade on chip and tech sectors.

The power brokers and money dealers are spinning more than a handful of plates, but so far haven't let any fall and break. Despite their best efforts at narrative control, polls are showing Democrats taking the majority in the House, though the Senate appears to be safe for the Republicans, which is about the best they can expect. A wholesale turnover of both houses would be devastating to their cause.

At the Close, Thursday, October 8, 2026:
Dow: 51,231.64, +51.77 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 27,193.34, -345.35 (-1.25%)
S&P 500: 7,765.36, -36.41 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 23,797.60, +95.68 (+0.40%)

Thursday, October 8, 2026

More Fakery: 10-Year Note Yields Jump Again Overnight; Silver Smacked Lower, Oil Prices Rising; Dip-Buyers Out in Force

Wednesday morning's setup was one in which stock futures foretold of horror, with all of the major indices sporting large losses in futures heading toward the open bell. Fear was surely in the air.

Once the cash market opened and had gotten its footings, the bad news turned into a buying opportunity, as news narratives were softened, and, most importantly, yield on the 10-year note and 30-year bond began to tail off. That was key to the massive dip-buying that took place after 11:00 am ET and continued right through to the close.

The ultimate trigger for the initial fear factor was the 10-year note yield spiking, from 5.27% at the close of trading on Tuesday, then opening at 5.36% at 8:30 am. That rise of nine basis points sent a message to markets and the algos and traders took the bait. The overall intent of the overnight yield spike was likely designed to send gold and silver into the void. Both precious metals experienced severe declines at the same time the 10-year yield was spiking higher. Turns out, Wednesday was the last opportunity for the riggers at the COMEX and LBMA to suppress PMs. China's markets were closed for Golden Week, and they re-open on Thursday.

If any or all of that sounds like so much conspiracy theory, fine, don't buy it. But, it makes perfect sense. All markets are sensationally rigged and have been for years. They are designed to goose gains in stocks, primarily, but also are very much aligned in price suppression of precious metals, i.e., real money, a practice that's gone on for decades, with horrific results. Not only have prices for precious metals skyrocketed over the past 25 years, but inflation, the counterparty to massive fiat money creation by central banks - especially the U.S. Federal Reserve - has exploded recently. At the end of the day, stock market gains are paid for by consumer inflation, or, read in different terms, loss of purchasing power. As financial assets appreciate on the back of nearly limitless paper money creation, the downstream effect goes deep into the pockets of consumers, with higher costs for food, energy, and just about everything else.

The United States and its allies in the fiat regime, which includes all of Europe, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia and a handful of other countries which rely on exported inflation from the U.S. trade imbalance and deal primarily in dollars, yen, and euros, are facing an existential death spiral created by the central banks. Global debt has risen to unsustainable levels and governments are walking on eggshells in a joint effort to control the narrative, act as if $40 trillion in accumulated debt by the U.S. is no big deal, and try various methods to either tamp down sentiment or make huge profits on their - now daily - manipulations, or both. Actually, as the past few years of the Trump regime evidence, it's almost always both. Nothing like making billions as you destroy the well--being of billions of ordinary citizens.

By the middle of the day Wednesday, yield on the 10-year note had fallen off to 5.27%, right where it had close on Tuesday, prior to the spike, and stayed at roughly that level for the remainder of the session. Stocks, especially those on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, recovered most of their earlier losses. Gold and silver remained moribund.

As Thursday beckons, the same setup is being staged again. The yield on the 10-year is being quoted at 5.33%, fear of more Iranian attacks on oil vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is being ramped up, gold and silver are diving, though more damage is being done to silver than gold, for reasons unknown, but probably because China's markets are reopened and the focus is on the big kahuna, gold. Silver's meteoric rise will come later, next week, next month, but eventually market dynamics will force prices higher. As it is, silver at less than $60/ounce is a joke. In China, the spot price is upwards of $66 and in India, it's closer to $70.

Crude oil is rising this morning, with WTI crude quoted at $92.53 and rising.

No matter what one believes, it's failry evident that anything that occurs between now and the midterm elections on November 3rd is probably fake, controlled, and more noise than signal.

Let's see if Thursday's mockery of open markets is a carbon copy of Wednesday's fiasco. The key will be whether stocks continue to slide after 11:00 am or stop and reverse course as yields come down at the same time. In that circumstance, it's "Buy the Dip, Baby!"

At the Close, Wednesday, October 7, 2026:
Dow: 51,179.87, -341.41 (-0.66%)
NASDAQ: 27,538.69, -61.20 (-0.22%)
S&P 500: 7,801.77, -17.16 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 23,701.92, -219.75 (-0.92%)

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

S&P, NASDAQ Make Record Highs, But Trouble Is Brewing in Middle East, Gulf of America; Interest Rates Spiking

Easy come, easy go.

Just as the S&P and NASDAQ recorded new all-time highs, stocks appear poised to give back some of those gains as the opening bell approaches Wednesday morning. Stock futures are falling fast as the sun rises over lower Manhattan.

With less than an hour before the opening bell rings, Dow futures are down 450 points, NASDAQ futures have shed 260, and S&P futures are off by 37 points. The accused culprits are Houthis blowing up much of Saudi Arabia's oil production, Iran blasting tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the potential for Hurricane Isaias to damage oil rigs and refineries in and around the Gulf of America, and interest rates hitting 20+ year highs.

The Shiller PE closed Tuesday at 41.90, not the highest ever, but close.

As usual, with stocks being battered, gold and silver are being beaten down. At this time, with China's markets closed until Thursday for Golden Week, spot gold is being quoted at $4088, and silver at around $58 per ounce, both three-month lows.

Most of the downside damage occurred just after 8:00 am ET, for no apparent reason.

None of this looks particularly pleasing to the Republicans in congress nor for those expecting a windfall $5000 check from President Trump when his party wins the midterms. Those checks should be arriving about the same time as the DOGE payouts and the tariff dividends.

Risk on! Party off!

At the Close, Tuesday, October 6, 2026:
Dow: 51,521.28, +253.38 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 27,599.89, +122.58 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: 7,818.93, +44.98 (+0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 23,921.67, +133.06 (+0.56%)

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

It's All Fake: Oil Prices Suppressed Just Like Gold and Silver; NASDAQ Sets Record; S&P About to Bust Upside; Yay! Elections!

“If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.”

As midterm elections approach, that quote, most often attributed to the great satirist, Mark Twain (Samuel Clemens) or renouned anarchist Emma Goldman, will be making the rounds on X and Facebook and elsewhere in the weeks ahead. No matter who said it, the inference is unmistakable, sardonic, and cynical, as it probably should be. The political system in the United States, dominated by two parties that often look a lot like each other is about as clean as a pair of muddy boots. Corruption and graft run through the system like wine at a music festival.

As the world turns ever closer to a closed totalitarian system, criticism of the electoral process might someday be viewed as criminal; already it is frowned upon by the established establishment. Quoting a more reliable source, the title of P.J. O'Rourke's 2011 satirical tome, "Don’t Vote It Just Encourages the Bastards" might be a better way to express disdain for the polling process. Whichever way the political winds blow, it seems Americans end up with the same government they previously hated. Not much changes; the landscape stays about the same, only some of the characters are different.

Which brings about the recent quizzical discussion over oil prices and futures markets. As Dr. Chris Martenson explains in the video clip below, the same kind of price suppression action that gold and silver proponents know all too well has recently raised its ugly head in oil futures. As the war/not a war narrative in the Middle East shifts and shimmies day to day, the price of Brent and WTI crude seem to sense an easing of tensions on a regular basis, roughly in line with positive tweets and "truths" by el Honcho Presidente Donaldo Trumpo.

Martenson isn't the only one observing the widespread rigging. The argument against synthetic markets (futures) driving real world prices has been raging for some time, only now, oil market analysts are some of the people sounding the alarm.

The obvious rationale for keeping oil prices down is that elections are on the way, with voting already taking place in some states that allow early balloting, and soon to be a deluge of sketchy picks and predictions.

There's been more than enough talk about irregularities in the voting process, this time coming mostly from the party desperately clinging to small majorities in the House and Senate. Claims of foul play will be widespread in the current cycle. The silve lining is that it will all be over in less than a month. Then, the news coverage can shift to more important matters, like what Taylor Swift was wearing at the latest Chiefs game and which lousy films are going to be nominated for awards.

For those intrepid souls who go about connecting dots, all fakery leads inexorably to the stock market, U.S. funny money, AKA, Federal Reserve Notes, and AI, which, in case anybody has forgotten, stands for Artificial Intelligence. With Tuesday's opening bell about to ring within minutes of this writing, stock futures are once again screaming higher for no reason other than the pervasive understanding that AI and chip stocks are really worth 30 or 40 or 50 times earnings.

It's all part of the electioneering plan: Higher stocks, Lower oil prices, Lower treasury yields. The NASDAQ closed at a record high on Monday. Today, it's likely the S&P's turn to set another record. Play along, or, be left behind, shivering in a cardboard box under some urban freeway.

Eventually, thinking will be banned. Your personal AI-directed, robot assistant will make sure you don't cross the line.

At the Close, Monday, October 5, 2026:
Dow: 51,267.90, +90.94 (+0.18%)
NASDAQ: 27,477.31, +286.45 (+1.05%)
S&P 500: 7,773.95, +51.23 (+0.66%)
NYSE Composite: 23,788.62, +134.30 (+0.57%)

Sunday, October 4, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Midterms, Early Voting Underway; Gold, Silver Slaughtered as China Takes a Week Off; Bond Yields Remain Uncomfortably High

The week just past was something of a snoozer, other than Friday's lift-off thanks to the weak Non-farm payroll numbers for September.

Showing a gain of just 29,000 jobs over the month and negative revisions to July and August, the report served the interests of the speculative class, who viewed the weak labor market as a clue to the Fed's next action on interest rates, figuring the FOMC would be inclined to keep rates steady at the October 27-28 meeting, which also falls a week before the midterm election. That thesis proved to be good enough to propel stocks higher, interest rates lower, and spirits brighter heading into the weekend.

The biggest event of the weekend won't be the Chiefs-Raiders game, but Sunday's presidential election in Brazil, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds a narrow polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, though the polling data is well within te margin of error and South America overall has been leaning right lately, so the chances for conservative Bolsonaro are considered good. If neither candidate polls an outright majority, the two would engage in a final, run-off election October 25. Results of the election may be known before halftime of the late football game, in case anybody is interested.

It's officially silly season, with early voting already open in a handful of states, including Illinois, which allows early voting 40 days before the actual election day. More states will be opening the polls this week and next, with nearly all early voting states accepting ballots by the middle of October, as 15-20 days before election day is pretty much the average.

The President and the press are going to keep the lid on events in the Middle East, or at least try to shield the general public from reality, for the next month. After the midterms and the possible political "changing of the guard," there might be reason to change investing tactics, but, with the Democrats favored to win the House, and thus, split the government, that translates into good news, as no new legislation would be likely for two years. It may pay to be hopeful that the government just staggers along until the next election.

Stocks

The NASDAQ, and, notably, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, were the only major indices to put on gains over the past week. The NASDAQ, up less than 1/2 percent on the week, got a major boost on Friday, the jobs number serving as a catalyst to send tech stocks higher. The calculus for the move on the NASDAQ requires some sleight of hand. Tech and AI-related stocks need to borrow to expand, and keeping interest rates at what might be considered reasonable levels is a big step in the right direction. A weaker labor market keeps the Fed from raising rates too aggressively, at least for the moment.

Gains on the Transports had more to do with wishful thinking over gas and diesel prices, which have eased over the past week. Markets are so transitory these days that stock prices can be affected by simple headlines and make extreme moves in days or weeks. The level of speculation in markets, widely reflected in the tranny average, is enormous and the degree of crowding, dangerous.

The rest of the market is in a funk. The Dow is down roughly six percent from its August 5 high. The S&P has been flattened out over the same time span.

There's still another full week of trading before the banks and airlines begin releasing third quarter earnings reports, though Delta will announce Friday (October 9) before the opening bell.

On te economic front, the market will digest the S&P global PMI release at 9:45 am ET and ISM Service PMI at 10:00 am ET on Monday, so it could be a busy morning for traders. After that, economic data will be a trickle, and likely not very important. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday and weekly unemployment claims on Thursday. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment poll data is out on Friday.

Relevant data releases can be found at Trading View.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
08/28/2026	3.84	3.83	3.86	3.90	3.94	4.02	4.15
09/04/2026	3.79	3.83	3.90	3.91	4.00	3.98	4.13
09/11/2026	3.93	3.99	4.05	4.07	4.15	4.12	4.35
09/18/2026	3.97	3.98	4.10	4.14	4.24	4.24	4.44
09/25/2026	4.04	4.14	4.20	4.24	4.32	4.33	4.50
10/02/2026	4.04	4.09	4.11	4.19	4.26	4.27	4.46

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
08/28/2026	4.34	4.41	4.48	4.59	4.73	5.21	5.22
09/04/2026	4.37	4.45	4.54	4.65	4.78	5.25	5.24
09/11/2026	4.63	4.69	4.78	4.87	4.96	5.38	5.35
09/18/2026	4.76	4.83	4.86	4.93	5.01	5.38	5.34
09/25/2026	4.81	4.94	4.98	5.06	5.17	5.54	5.49
10/02/2026	4.83	4.96	5.06	5.17	5.28	5.67	5.63

Friday's jobs number (+29,000) impacted stocks and bonds alike, with the prospect of the Fed keeping interest rates on hold at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting elevated due to perceived weakness in the labor market. Despite prices for long-dated maturities rising and yields falling, the general picture, on a weekly basis, was still unpleasant, with 30-year bond yields rising 14 basis points and 10-year note yields up 11 basis points. While those figures were off the highs earlier in the week, they are still above the comfort level for the government on an ongoing basis. Demand continues to weaken for U.S. debt and there's little anybody can do - and that includes Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Warsh - about the ailing condition of the market.

With the yield on two-year notes barely budging, 2s-10s expanded to +45, up 20 basis points over the past two weeks. Full spectrum continues to test the high end of the range, screaming to +159 reflecting stronger growth, higher inflation, and greater government borrowing needs. The evident danger appears to be at the long end, which doesn't seem to want to stop pricing in high inflation and persistent government spending. Borrowing costs to finance the behemoth U.S. government are blowing out. While that's not a problem for the general economy yet, the bankruptcy of the federal government continues unabated and the issue has gone past a level of seriousness to what most people would define as a crisis.

Spreads:

Oil/Gas

Oil prices continues to trend in a range of $91-93 for WTI crude on the futures market, with the Middle East remaining a hot potato, though not as hot as previously, as the U.S. government attempts to keep a lid on prices until the midterm elections.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $4.45 last week and $4.33 this week, a solid drop in prices just in time for the midterms. Lower prices at the pump are generally considered to be a positive for the Republican party and the timing of various initiatives by President Trump and his gang might be a little off, since early voting has already begun in some states while the price of gas remains unacceptably high, though it's obvious that Trump will be pulling out all stops to get the price lower as more states open for early voting (generally from 7 to 20 days before actual election day).

Looking at individual states, the biggest drops in price occurred in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Florida and Georgia saw prices fall, on average, by 36 cents. In Michigan, the price has been falling for the past two weeks, down another 22 cents this week.

Gas prices in key states:

California (leader): $6.38 (+0.03)
Washington: $5.46 (-0.06)
Indiana: $3.74 (lowest) (-0.15)
Oklahoma: $3.92 (-0.15)
Louisiana: $3.90 (-0.10)
Mississippi: $3.91 (-0.06)
Florida: $4.04 (-0.36)
Illinois: $4.65 (-0.12)
Pennsylvania: $4.47 (-0.06)
New York: $4.46 (+0.01)
Maryland: $4.21 (-0.14)
Michigan: $4.45 (-0.22)
Texas: $3.89 (0.00)
Georgia: $3.81 (-0.36)

On Sunday, October 4, there are thirty-sex (36) states with average prices at or above $4.00, with twelve (12) below the $4 threshold (other than Indiana, all clustered in the Southeast), not including Hawaii ($5.61) and Alaska ($5.00), with four above $5 (California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington) and one, California, above $6.00. The Southeast has maintained as the lowest region overall over the past 15 weeks, with prices falling below $4.00 this week ($3.81-3.95) in places like Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi, with the Midwest region second, prices ranging higher, from $4.04 to $4.21. Exceptions include Florida in the Southeast and Michigan and Illinois in the Midwest.

All Northeast states, from Delaware and Maryland all the way to Maine, continue to average well above $4.00.

Bitcoin

This week: $85,242.28
Last week: $84,540.25
2 weeks ago: $80,888.60
6 months ago: $67,130.08
One year ago: $123,857.10
Five years ago: $54,963.55

Crypto and bitcoin remain bid, though off recent highs. Not everybody is convinced that bitcoin or any crypto is either money or a good investment, kind of sounding like tulips.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 68.59; last week: 66.64

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 9/4: $4,477.20
Gold price 9/11: $4,390.00
Gold price 9/18: $4,415.90
Gold price 9/25: $4,320.50
Gold price 10/2: $4,172.10

Silver price 9/4: $66.82
Silver price 9/11: $65.02
Silver price 9/18: $66.79
Silver price 9/25: $64.71
Silver price 10/2: $60.71

SPOT: (stockcharts.com)
Gold 9/4: $4,429.45
Gold 9/11: $4,348.10
Gold 9/18: $4,377.63
Gold 9/25: $4,283.78
Gold 10/2: $4,141.90

Silver 9/4: $66.20
Silver 9/11: $64.48
Silver 9/18: $66.24
Silver 9/25: $64.28
Silver 10/2: $60.39

Gold and silver were ravaged by the COMEX and LBMA, as China celebrated National Day (October 1) and Golden Week (Oct. 1-7). Most of China's exchanges - for stocks and commodities, including gold and silver - are closed for the duration of Golden Week, reopening on October 8, leaving pricing of precious metals in the hands of the master manipulators. Naturally, the devious operators took full advantage of China's absence, taking gold and silver markets to the proverbial cleaners.

Expect more downward pressure on PMs until Thursday, October 8, when China's markets re-open. Spot prices in China (and India and elsewhere) are unaffected by the COMEX gambit. For instance, the spot price for silver in China is currently pegged at $69.18 in China and $71.55 in India, presenting a huge opportunity for arbitrage. No doubt, vast amounts of bullion have been leaving American shores, headed to the East for quick profits. In the short term, this leverage is celebrated in the West as cunning and wise, while China, India and other Asian nations are more than happy to trade their fiat dollars for precious metals.

Over the long term, this strategy of suppression works only so long as US$ are acceptable for exchange, a condition that has been slowly eroding. The U.S. treasury market is a prime example of general disdain for the dollar. Bond buyers are demanding higher yields and international buyers have been trimming their holdings of treasuries for years. Holders of precious metals will eventually be rewarded - and they have been recently - but the road to higher precious metals prices is a bumpy one.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	66.11	85.48	72.73	70.43
1 oz silver bar:	66.98	88.57	72.31	68.00
1 oz gold coin:	4266.60	4518.70	4373.47	4364.10
1 oz gold bar:	4311.60	4426.96	4365.47	4369.62

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) took a massive hit this week, falling to $70.87, a decline of $3.71 per troy ounce from the September 27 price of $74.58.

WEEKEND WRAP

At the Close, Friday, October 2, 2026:
Dow: 51,176.96, +250.40 (+0.49%)
NASDAQ: 27,190.86, +319.27 (+1.19%)
S&P 500: 7,722.72, +56.27 (+0.73%)
NYSE Composite: 23,654.31, +127.47 (+0.54%)

For the Week:
Dow: -651.66 (-1.26%)
NASDAQ: +122.12 (+0.45%)
S&P 500: -20.69 (-0.27%)
NYSE Composite: -258.28 (-1.08%)
Dow Transports: +437.53 (+2.24%)

Friday, October 2, 2026

A Dysfunctional Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Poses a Threat to American Citizens; BLS: 29,000 Jobs in September Sends Stock Futures Soaring

Absolutely wonderful news:

"The IRS no longer has the resources to pursue all delinquent filers."

-- Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA)

What may be even better, after Money Daily tried to find out just who this Inspector General is, is that the position is currently vacant, though, since January, 2024, Heather M. Hill is TIGTA's Principal Deputy Inspector General, performing the duties of the Inspector General, following the death of J. Russell George.

According to Jeremy Portnoy, of RealClearInvestigations, Americans underpaid taxes by by an estimated $696 billion in 2022, which is kind of funny and kind of sad, since those taxes were filed in the early months of 2023, which is now more than three years ago. Even the investigation of unpaid taxes by wily American citizens is past due.

Here is the actual report filed by TIGTA [PDF] just in case anyone wants to pore over completely useless numbers and findings.

The trouble with the IRS is that it's hardly functional in its current form. The system is still running on COBOL, a computer language created in 1959. If it wasn't for automatic payroll deductions, the IRS would hardly collect anything at all. Corporate taxes, which account for less than nine percent of all taxes, are wildly reduced by accounting practices devised by the IRS in its voluminous, 75,000 pages of rules, regulations, guidance, and court interpretations.

Perhaps the worst part of the entire IRS structure is that it is supposedly "voluntary", which, in the strict interpretation of the word means individuals don't actually have to submit tax forms or pay income taxes. Good luck trying that approach. Despite there being no actual laws that require American citizens to file tax returns and pay taxes on their income, the Supreme Court has repeatedly supported the agency's spurious position.

About $14 billion is annually spent by the IRS, a huge number, yet they still have trouble processing returns in a timely, efficient manner. Since they are doing such a poor job collecting taxes, maybe President Trump's concept to abolish the agency in favor of tariffs and other taxes isn't so far-fetched. Of course, when Elon Musk and his DOGE team went snooping around the agency, the blowback from Capitol Hill was swift and thunderous. Senators and Reps in the House don't want their golden calf reduced or even restructured. Thus, the government's chief collection agency remains dysfunctional.

While that's good news, it also implies that the federal government, $40 trillion in debt and generally bankrupt, is unable to collect taxes from its sovereign people. That's really not good news. It means chaos, if not already present in the government architecture, is well on its way and that, if it's even possible, the government will become more broke, faster, unable to pay it's debts with money it can't collect.

If IRS agents and upgraded systems with AI are released upon the general population, the effects could be devastating. The agency is known for its heavy-handed tactics and extreme penalties and interest charges. They have the power to seize assets, close businesses, and generally wreak havoc upon their intended victims.

Knowing all of this, Americans better just keep their heads down, do as they're told, file their returns on time and pay the piper. Of course, there are more than 14 million individuals who don't follow that advice. The number is growing, and, surprisingly, some of these non-filers work for the IRS.

Geez, Louise...

As far as that September Non-farm Payroll report from the BLS was concnerned, bummer!

The labor market gained only 29,000 jobs in September.

According to the BLS (excerpts):

Both nonfarm payroll employment (+29,000) and the unemployment rate (4.2 percent) changed little in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in September. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent since March.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in September (+29,000), following an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior 12 months. Employment in all major industries changed little over the month.

While the BLS itself might desire to pooh-pooh what is a disappointing number, the reality of the situation - a weakening labor market - is a forerunner of a weak economy. As usual, prior months were revised lower.

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 31,000, from +21,000 to -10,000, and the change for August was revised down by 29,000, from +162,000 to +133,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 60,000 lower than previously reported.

Wall Street popped champagne bottles and stock futures spiked on the news. The immediate reaction is that a number this weak will put the FOMC on hold at their October 27-28 meeting, keeping the federal funds target rate at 3.75-4.00%, and, with that, everybody should be piling further into overpriced stocks.

Yippie!

At the Close, Thursday, October 1, 2026: Dow: 50,926.56, +20.51 (+0.04%) NASDAQ: 26,871.60, +10.53 (+0.04%) S&P 500: 7,666.45, +14.91 (+0.19%) NYSE Composite: 23,526.84, +36.05 (+0.15%)

Money Daily

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Stocks Slip After Earnings Fail to Inspire Market Confidence; Housing Market in Decline with Starts Down 5.2% in September

Monday, October 19, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Remain Somewhat Cool Leading Into Midterms, Though Oil Prices Have Spiked; Silver Trounced in Futures Markets; Interest Rates Tamed

Friday, October 16, 2026

Stocks Ignore Inflation, Oil, Gas Prices, and Discouraging Earnings Reports from Financials as Midterms Loom

Thursday, October 15, 2026

NASDAQ Posts Worst Decline in Four Months as AI Credit Implodes; September PPI Advances Beyond Expectations: Crude Oil Jumps; PMs Recovering

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

September CPI Unacceptably High; Bank Stocks Delivering Bad News; Futures Slide as Midterm Plans Unravel

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Stocks Flat for Columbus Day; United Health (UNH), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) Boost Pre-Market with Solid 3rd Quarter Results

Sunday, October 11, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Busy Week Ahead for Earnings, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales as Midterms Loom; Gold, Silver Recovery Underway; Yields Tamed, Though Still High

Friday, October 9, 2026

Markets Poised for Upside Friday, though Flat for the Week; Gold, Silver Rebound as China Reopens; Early Midterm Voting Underway

Thursday, October 8, 2026

More Fakery: 10-Year Note Yields Jump Again Overnight; Silver Smacked Lower, Oil Prices Rising; Dip-Buyers Out in Force

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

S&P, NASDAQ Make Record Highs, But Trouble Is Brewing in Middle East, Gulf of America; Interest Rates Spiking

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

It's All Fake: Oil Prices Suppressed Just Like Gold and Silver; NASDAQ Sets Record; S&P About to Bust Upside; Yay! Elections!

Sunday, October 4, 2026

WEEKEND WRAP: Midterms, Early Voting Underway; Gold, Silver Slaughtered as China Takes a Week Off; Bond Yields Remain Uncomfortably High

Friday, October 2, 2026

A Dysfunctional Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Poses a Threat to American Citizens; BLS: 29,000 Jobs in September Sends Stock Futures Soaring

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