Friday, March 11, 2016

It's a Bear! It's a Bull! No, It's a Blur Market

Money Daily has sought to explain the crooked, maligned markets since 2006, without success, though today, at last, a breakthrough may be at hand.

At last, a definition with which everybody can agree.

After yesterday's quad-engulfing candlestick on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which would surely, under normal circumstances (whatever qualifies as normal since 2008, nobody is sure) qualify as a key reversal day, markets would have none of it, unless one is to be persuaded to believe that the reverse of a constant grind higher is a quick slam higher.

Up is down, Down is up. Slavery is liberty and all that 1984-ish doublespeak. (h/t to George Orwell)

Are we in a bear market? Hardly. A bull market? Doubtful.

Thus, we inaugurate the Blur Market, wherein all fundamentals are obfuscated by statistics, corrupt data from the BLS, manic pumping from the PPT, the machinations of the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), jawboning from the likes of Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fisher or James Bullard.

It's a market driven by algorithms, unseen by human eyes, throttled up and down by unseen scientists in hidden caverns. The blur market is so fast, microseconds are not quick enough to front-run it. High Frequency Traders (HFTs) fight for nanoseconds of advantage. Didot typefaces print prices in a dadaist diaspora.

There's only one number that matters: 2,130.82

That was the all-time high close on the S&P 500, May 21, 2015. We are just about two months away from that being a year ago, so, are we headed to another all-time high or not?

If we are, the bull market lives on. If not, a bear market is in the cards.

For now, we're in a 'tween market. Not bear, nor bull, but something in between, a 'tween, or a beull or a bulear. Something like that. Maybe we could just call it a blur market, which works on a number of levels.

So, let us. It's all a BLUR.

Friday's massive rise capped the fourth straight week of gains on the major indices. For the Dow, up 7.5% in just the past 20 sessions, Friday's gains put the rally at a solid 1200 points. For the week, the DJIA was up 206.54 (1.21%); the S&P added 22.20 (1.11%); and the NASDAQ posted a gain of 31.44 (0.67%). Friday made certain that the rally did not end, at least on a weekly basis.

While impressive, this looks like nothing more than a cynical cyclical rally, with nothing but hot air and central bank jawboning behind it.

The Friday Blur:
S&P 500: 2,022.19, +32.62 (1.64%)
Dow: 17,213.31, +218.18 (1.28%)
NASDAQ: 4,748.47, +86.31 (1.85%)

Crude Oil 38.51 +1.77% Gold 1,259.50 -1.04% EUR/USD 1.1152 -0.23% 10-Yr Bond 1.9770 +2.49% Corn 364.50 +0.48% Copper 2.24 +1.06% Silver 15.62 +0.49% Natural Gas 1.83 +2.18% Russell 2000 1,086.77 +2.14% VIX 16.55 -8.31% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4383 +0.66% USD/JPY 113.78 +0.56%

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