Money Daily has sought to explain the crooked, maligned markets since 2006, without success, though today, at last, a breakthrough may be at hand.
At last, a definition with which everybody can agree.
After yesterday's quad-engulfing candlestick on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which would surely, under normal circumstances (whatever qualifies as normal since 2008, nobody is sure) qualify as a key reversal day, markets would have none of it, unless one is to be persuaded to believe that the reverse of a constant grind higher is a quick slam higher.
Up is down, Down is up. Slavery is liberty and all that 1984-ish doublespeak. (h/t to George Orwell)
Are we in a bear market? Hardly. A bull market? Doubtful.
Thus, we inaugurate the Blur Market, wherein all fundamentals are obfuscated by statistics, corrupt data from the BLS, manic pumping from the PPT, the machinations of the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund), jawboning from the likes of Mario Draghi, Shinzo Abe, Janet Yellen, Stanley Fisher or James Bullard.
It's a market driven by algorithms, unseen by human eyes, throttled up and down by unseen scientists in hidden caverns. The blur market is so fast, microseconds are not quick enough to front-run it. High Frequency Traders (HFTs) fight for nanoseconds of advantage. Didot typefaces print prices in a dadaist diaspora.
There's only one number that matters: 2,130.82
That was the all-time high close on the S&P 500, May 21, 2015. We are just about two months away from that being a year ago, so, are we headed to another all-time high or not?
If we are, the bull market lives on. If not, a bear market is in the cards.
For now, we're in a 'tween market. Not bear, nor bull, but something in between, a 'tween, or a beull or a bulear. Something like that. Maybe we could just call it a blur market, which works on a number of levels.
So, let us. It's all a BLUR.
Friday's massive rise capped the fourth straight week of gains on the major indices. For the Dow, up 7.5% in just the past 20 sessions, Friday's gains put the rally at a solid 1200 points. For the week, the DJIA was up 206.54 (1.21%); the S&P added 22.20 (1.11%); and the NASDAQ posted a gain of 31.44 (0.67%). Friday made certain that the rally did not end, at least on a weekly basis.
While impressive, this looks like nothing more than a cynical cyclical rally, with nothing but hot air and central bank jawboning behind it.
The Friday Blur:
S&P 500: 2,022.19, +32.62 (1.64%)
Dow: 17,213.31, +218.18 (1.28%)
NASDAQ: 4,748.47, +86.31 (1.85%)
Crude Oil 38.51 +1.77% Gold 1,259.50 -1.04% EUR/USD 1.1152 -0.23% 10-Yr Bond 1.9770 +2.49% Corn 364.50 +0.48% Copper 2.24 +1.06% Silver 15.62 +0.49% Natural Gas 1.83 +2.18% Russell 2000 1,086.77 +2.14% VIX 16.55 -8.31% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4383 +0.66% USD/JPY 113.78 +0.56%
Showing posts with label George Orwell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label George Orwell. Show all posts
Friday, March 11, 2016
Monday, April 12, 2010
The Numbers Racket
We are entering a glorious new age of prosperity and health, where no person will want for any thing, be it large or small. The government and the brilliant men and women running our largest corporate enterprises shall ensure that the necessities of our lives will be provided to all.
OK, now that kind of statement is right out of the Orwell handbook, but it is apparently the kind of Kool-Aid that Wall Street and the financial media seem to want to project. At least that's the impression left by 13 months of non-stop gains in the markets and another small, but still significant, rise today which pushed the Dow past 11,000 for the first time since September, 2008, some 20 months ago. It's a meaningless number, just like 2500 on the NASDAQ and 2000 on the S&P, both figures within hailing distance. They're just round and big, and that's why they get noticed. Look, even I'm mentioning them.
If you're paid to watch these things and/or report on them, then you might want to make the case that certain benchmarks are actually meaningful whether they are or not.
Dow 11,005.97, +8.62 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,457.87, +3.82 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,196.48, +2.11 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,641.75, +12.70 (0.17%)
Gainers knocked losers for the umpteenth time in the past two months, 3704-2780. On the 8th of February, the Dow closed at 9908.39. Since then - two months time - the index has gained 1100 points (11%). It is running at an annual rate of 66%. Those kinds of gains are not normal, and anyone who tells you they are is a liar. Simply put, the market is running on fumes and cheap dollars. The rally is as unrealistic as it is unsustainable.
New highs were prolific at 900. There were but 90 new lows. Volume was still limp and lacking.
NYSE Volume 5,071,607,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,066,159,250
Some interesting merger news today involved Haliburton (HAL) which will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL), Cerberus will take private Dyncorp International (DCP), and Reliant Energy (RRI 4.53) and Mirant (MIR 12.68) will engage in an all stock merger. Though all separate deals, they are actually part of the same umbrella, all engaged in Mid-eastern politics, war, oil and security. The Cerberus deal is likely the most nefarious, since Dyncorp is heavily involved in procurement, security and god--knows-what-else in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Of course, Cerberus is the company that brilliantly took Chrysler private in 2007 and had to be bailed out by the government in 2008. According to published reports, Cerberus was supposed to have "eliminated" its 80% equity stake in Chrysler, but maintain a controlling stake in Chrysler Financial. About a year ago, Cerberus was supposed to have utilized the first $2 billion in proceeds from its Chrysler Financial holding to backstop a loan allocated to Chrysler automotive in December by the Treasury Department.
Whether or not that exact deal took place or not is unknown, though the murkiness of all of the bailout flotsam has become de rigeur. A private company like Cerberus, with seemingly unlimited amounts of capital to invest, can do pretty much what it wants, especially when it gets stamped "approved" by the friendly federales.
As for commodities, oil fell 58 cents, to $84.34. This should come as no surprise to anyone, as $86 oil is about as welcome as $3/gallon gasoline, and we're already approaching that threshold. Gold gained 50 cents, to $1,161.60. Silver gained 6 cents, to $18.40. That's not surprising. What will be interesting is to see which cartel breaks apart first: the oil price riggers, the metals and gold bugs, or the stock jocks.
It's a racket. A numbers racket.
OK, now that kind of statement is right out of the Orwell handbook, but it is apparently the kind of Kool-Aid that Wall Street and the financial media seem to want to project. At least that's the impression left by 13 months of non-stop gains in the markets and another small, but still significant, rise today which pushed the Dow past 11,000 for the first time since September, 2008, some 20 months ago. It's a meaningless number, just like 2500 on the NASDAQ and 2000 on the S&P, both figures within hailing distance. They're just round and big, and that's why they get noticed. Look, even I'm mentioning them.
If you're paid to watch these things and/or report on them, then you might want to make the case that certain benchmarks are actually meaningful whether they are or not.
Dow 11,005.97, +8.62 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,457.87, +3.82 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,196.48, +2.11 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite 7,641.75, +12.70 (0.17%)
Gainers knocked losers for the umpteenth time in the past two months, 3704-2780. On the 8th of February, the Dow closed at 9908.39. Since then - two months time - the index has gained 1100 points (11%). It is running at an annual rate of 66%. Those kinds of gains are not normal, and anyone who tells you they are is a liar. Simply put, the market is running on fumes and cheap dollars. The rally is as unrealistic as it is unsustainable.
New highs were prolific at 900. There were but 90 new lows. Volume was still limp and lacking.
NYSE Volume 5,071,607,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,066,159,250
Some interesting merger news today involved Haliburton (HAL) which will purchase Boots & Coots (WEL), Cerberus will take private Dyncorp International (DCP), and Reliant Energy (RRI 4.53) and Mirant (MIR 12.68) will engage in an all stock merger. Though all separate deals, they are actually part of the same umbrella, all engaged in Mid-eastern politics, war, oil and security. The Cerberus deal is likely the most nefarious, since Dyncorp is heavily involved in procurement, security and god--knows-what-else in both Iraq and Afghanistan.
Of course, Cerberus is the company that brilliantly took Chrysler private in 2007 and had to be bailed out by the government in 2008. According to published reports, Cerberus was supposed to have "eliminated" its 80% equity stake in Chrysler, but maintain a controlling stake in Chrysler Financial. About a year ago, Cerberus was supposed to have utilized the first $2 billion in proceeds from its Chrysler Financial holding to backstop a loan allocated to Chrysler automotive in December by the Treasury Department.
Whether or not that exact deal took place or not is unknown, though the murkiness of all of the bailout flotsam has become de rigeur. A private company like Cerberus, with seemingly unlimited amounts of capital to invest, can do pretty much what it wants, especially when it gets stamped "approved" by the friendly federales.
As for commodities, oil fell 58 cents, to $84.34. This should come as no surprise to anyone, as $86 oil is about as welcome as $3/gallon gasoline, and we're already approaching that threshold. Gold gained 50 cents, to $1,161.60. Silver gained 6 cents, to $18.40. That's not surprising. What will be interesting is to see which cartel breaks apart first: the oil price riggers, the metals and gold bugs, or the stock jocks.
It's a racket. A numbers racket.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Bad Is Good, Less is More, Failure is Success
My Orwellian title for today's post stems from a belief that our national economy has gone fully bust, bankrupted by policies which favored financial manipulation and "wealth creation" over actual financial profit in a more traditional sense: by labor, production and industry.
The US economy is on its death bed. Actually, it has been lying there on life support for nearly two years now, since the initial failure of two obscure Bear Stearns hedge funds sent shock waves through the world financial system. (I should note, without any pleasure, that the US financial system is locked into the larger, global system to some degree, though far less than 100%, so that when the US fails, other countries will also take a hit, some more than others.)
Since that time in July of 2007, when Bears' High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund imploded, leaving investors with nothing and freezing credit markets worldwide, the US economy has suffered its worst decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Rescue efforts by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, current Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have succeeded only in stopping the bleeding temporarily. These doctors of finance have yet to address the real cause of the malady: the toxic assets in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDS) without sufficient capital to underwrite them and various frauds in commercial banking from the "miracle" fractional reserves" to interest rate manipulation.
Worse yet, these government pretenders have been completely bought off by the criminal syndicate at the root of the financial crisis: the largest banks and brokerages populating the canyons of Wall Street, headed by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and, of course, AIG.
These companies are essentially insolvent and bankrupt, brought down by the very derivative trading by which they enriched themselves for many years. The same securitization markets which underpinned - and eventually undercut - the US financial system remains in place, and, in an odd bit of alchemy, the surgeons are attempting to revive the patient by administering an unhealthy dose of the same medicine while felled it: more debt, more credit, more exotic, intractable, indiscernible financial instruments. With this kind of financial witchcraft at hand, the actual death of the US financial system will come in due course, most likely within the next two to three years, if not by the end of this one.
It was reported yesterday that 12% of all mortgages nationally were in some stage of trouble in the first quarter, either in foreclosure or past due by at least one payment, a record high. Unemployment is largely cited at 9%, though the real figure is likely closer to 12 or 15% when people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance are included in the calculations.
These numbers point out that the economy - despite mainstream media's contentions - is continuing to contract, decline, or, to put it into realistically stark terms: fail. Look up and down your street and there's probably one or more homes in which the occupants either have recently lost their job or have fallen behind on mortgage payments. And those numbers are more likely going to increase over the next 6, 12, 18 months. At some point - and remember, these people are also not going to be paying income and property taxes any time soon - you have to face reality. Am I going to be the only person on this block paying my mortgage and taxes? And why should I when the government is bailing out those who cannot meet their obligations with borrowed tax dollars?
Which brings us to the Orwellian part of this discussion: the sooner everybody defaults on either mortgage or tax obligations, the sooner the corrupt bankers and politicians can be uprooted, disposed of, dethroned, defrocked and demolished and a new economy can supplant the bad one. We are getting closer to that reality daily. When unemployment reaches beyond 20% and foreclosures are running at a rate similar, we'll be on our way to destruction, resolution and resurrection.
Regular people outnumber politicians and bankers in this country by a level of probably 1000-1. Surely we can muster the will to put an end to their borrow-tax-spend-lend tyranny? Or can we? Bad, defaulting on your mortgage, is good. Less, as in debt, is more, as in freedom. Failure of the financial system as currently structured will result in Success of the American experience.
The stock market today did what the economy has been doing for the past year: nothing... at least until 3:30, that is. Now, the fraud and deceit of such blatant manipulation can be seen first-hand. Stocks vacillated along the unchanged mark all day long until the final half hour of trading. Did everyone suddenly find reason to buy stocks with both hands shortly before the weekend commenced? Or did insiders decide it would be practical to end the week on a high note, knowing that the insipid media would carry only the final numbers and ignore the fact that ALL OF THE GAINS WERE IN THE FINAL HALF HOUR OF TRADING? The major dealers who did all this buying will no doubt be unloading the very same shares early next week to unsuspecting, sheep-like, retail investors.
You be the judge. Our economy is dying, if not already dead. Wall Street is an absolute Ponzi scheme on steroids, boosted by the bankers and winked at by government regulators and politicians. Until these scoundrels are unearthed, tried and imprisoned, we are their slaves.
Dow 8,500.33, +96.53 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 1,774.33, +22.54 (1.29%)
S&P 500 919.14, +12.31 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 6,004.07, +87.01 (1.47%)
On the day, advancers beat decliners by an obvious margin, 3652-1837, though new lows maintained their advantage over new highs, 84-77. As close as that margin has gotten this week, it has yet to roll over, and, unless there is some kind of miracle cure for the economy - as GM heads to bankruptcy - it won't. Volume was slightly higher than the depressed levels which predominated the week, though that alone is without meaning.
NYSE Volume 1,854,219,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,524,330,000
The commodity rally continued apace, with oil shooting up another $1.23, to $66.31; gold rising $17.10, to $980.30, and silver gaining 45 cents, to $15.61.
Everything's going up, which really shouldn't happen in a balanced economy, but it is. George Orwell, wherever he is finally resting, is having a good laugh at our expense.
The US economy is on its death bed. Actually, it has been lying there on life support for nearly two years now, since the initial failure of two obscure Bear Stearns hedge funds sent shock waves through the world financial system. (I should note, without any pleasure, that the US financial system is locked into the larger, global system to some degree, though far less than 100%, so that when the US fails, other countries will also take a hit, some more than others.)
Since that time in July of 2007, when Bears' High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund imploded, leaving investors with nothing and freezing credit markets worldwide, the US economy has suffered its worst decline since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Rescue efforts by former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, current Secretary Tim Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke have succeeded only in stopping the bleeding temporarily. These doctors of finance have yet to address the real cause of the malady: the toxic assets in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDS) without sufficient capital to underwrite them and various frauds in commercial banking from the "miracle" fractional reserves" to interest rate manipulation.
Worse yet, these government pretenders have been completely bought off by the criminal syndicate at the root of the financial crisis: the largest banks and brokerages populating the canyons of Wall Street, headed by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and, of course, AIG.
These companies are essentially insolvent and bankrupt, brought down by the very derivative trading by which they enriched themselves for many years. The same securitization markets which underpinned - and eventually undercut - the US financial system remains in place, and, in an odd bit of alchemy, the surgeons are attempting to revive the patient by administering an unhealthy dose of the same medicine while felled it: more debt, more credit, more exotic, intractable, indiscernible financial instruments. With this kind of financial witchcraft at hand, the actual death of the US financial system will come in due course, most likely within the next two to three years, if not by the end of this one.
It was reported yesterday that 12% of all mortgages nationally were in some stage of trouble in the first quarter, either in foreclosure or past due by at least one payment, a record high. Unemployment is largely cited at 9%, though the real figure is likely closer to 12 or 15% when people who have exhausted their unemployment insurance are included in the calculations.
These numbers point out that the economy - despite mainstream media's contentions - is continuing to contract, decline, or, to put it into realistically stark terms: fail. Look up and down your street and there's probably one or more homes in which the occupants either have recently lost their job or have fallen behind on mortgage payments. And those numbers are more likely going to increase over the next 6, 12, 18 months. At some point - and remember, these people are also not going to be paying income and property taxes any time soon - you have to face reality. Am I going to be the only person on this block paying my mortgage and taxes? And why should I when the government is bailing out those who cannot meet their obligations with borrowed tax dollars?
Which brings us to the Orwellian part of this discussion: the sooner everybody defaults on either mortgage or tax obligations, the sooner the corrupt bankers and politicians can be uprooted, disposed of, dethroned, defrocked and demolished and a new economy can supplant the bad one. We are getting closer to that reality daily. When unemployment reaches beyond 20% and foreclosures are running at a rate similar, we'll be on our way to destruction, resolution and resurrection.
Regular people outnumber politicians and bankers in this country by a level of probably 1000-1. Surely we can muster the will to put an end to their borrow-tax-spend-lend tyranny? Or can we? Bad, defaulting on your mortgage, is good. Less, as in debt, is more, as in freedom. Failure of the financial system as currently structured will result in Success of the American experience.
The stock market today did what the economy has been doing for the past year: nothing... at least until 3:30, that is. Now, the fraud and deceit of such blatant manipulation can be seen first-hand. Stocks vacillated along the unchanged mark all day long until the final half hour of trading. Did everyone suddenly find reason to buy stocks with both hands shortly before the weekend commenced? Or did insiders decide it would be practical to end the week on a high note, knowing that the insipid media would carry only the final numbers and ignore the fact that ALL OF THE GAINS WERE IN THE FINAL HALF HOUR OF TRADING? The major dealers who did all this buying will no doubt be unloading the very same shares early next week to unsuspecting, sheep-like, retail investors.
You be the judge. Our economy is dying, if not already dead. Wall Street is an absolute Ponzi scheme on steroids, boosted by the bankers and winked at by government regulators and politicians. Until these scoundrels are unearthed, tried and imprisoned, we are their slaves.
Dow 8,500.33, +96.53 (1.15%)
NASDAQ 1,774.33, +22.54 (1.29%)
S&P 500 919.14, +12.31 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 6,004.07, +87.01 (1.47%)
On the day, advancers beat decliners by an obvious margin, 3652-1837, though new lows maintained their advantage over new highs, 84-77. As close as that margin has gotten this week, it has yet to roll over, and, unless there is some kind of miracle cure for the economy - as GM heads to bankruptcy - it won't. Volume was slightly higher than the depressed levels which predominated the week, though that alone is without meaning.
NYSE Volume 1,854,219,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,524,330,000
The commodity rally continued apace, with oil shooting up another $1.23, to $66.31; gold rising $17.10, to $980.30, and silver gaining 45 cents, to $15.61.
Everything's going up, which really shouldn't happen in a balanced economy, but it is. George Orwell, wherever he is finally resting, is having a good laugh at our expense.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
