Friday, November 23, 2012

Dumbest. Rally. Ever.

Will markets never learn?

Every year, on the half-day session that is Black Friday, stocks get a giddy bounce over the prospects of rabid holiday shopping frenzy and a warm, cozy, holiday feeling about consumer spending.

This year's half-day wonder was no exception. In fact, it was exceptional, as stocks soared at the open and added to outsize gains on extreme low volume. The gains were among the top five, point-wise, for the major averages this year, surging through overhead resistance, especially on the S&P 500, which broke above its 200-day moving averages. It was a sucker's rally to beat all suckers.

Priced into the advances were widespread, solid rumors that third quarter GDP would be revised upward from 2% to 2.8 or maybe even 3% next week.

These signs of exuberance may be tempered once the politicians get back into the mix. Republicans and Democrats are reportedly far apart on negotiations to solve fiscal cliff issues, with Republicans still demanding that Bush-era tax cuts on the rich remain in place, while Democrats wish to raise rates on earners over $250,000 per annum while keeping in place lower rates for the rest of American taxpayers.

Rest up and get some exercise to work off those additional pounds socked away on Thanksgiving. Everyone will be in need of extra energy to keep up with developments next week.

And just in case anybody thought the truce in the Middle East was one of lasting quality, Israelites and Palestinians barely took a break in killing each other. In response, silver tallied the biggest percentage gain of the day (2.23%) and gold rose by more than $23.00. So much for stability.

Black Friday Special: Free houses with zero down leases with no payments until the Fed raises interest rates, on new Cadillacs for everybody!

Dow 13,009.68, +172.79 (1.35%)
Nasdaq 2,966.85, +40.30 (1.38%)
S&P 500 1,409.15, +18.12 (1.30%)
NYSE Composite 8,220.31, 108.13(1.33%)
NYSE Volume 1,423,529,125
Nasdaq Volume 743,239,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4192-1058
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 135-37
WTI crude oil: 88.00, +0.62
Gold: 1,752.10, +23.90
Silver: 34.10, +0.745

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