Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Lower Oil Prices + Deflation = Prosperity

Money Daily stopped being a daily post blog in March, 2014. While the name remains the same, the posts are now on an intermittent basis, as conditions warrant, though it is advised to read the archives (from 2006-2014) regularly, even daily, for insights and historical perspective.

The economy will boom with lower oil and gas prices. This has probably been planned a long time ago. The bulls--t about marginal production from fraking keeps ringer ever more hollow. First, it was shale drillers will default at $80, then $70, now, it's $50.
The other day on CNBC, Kramer (the biggest a$$hat of all time) announced that the shale drillers won't default until oil hits $40. If that's the case - and, the number is probably lower for drills already in the ground - let's go for $30, which should get gas back to about $1.50/gallon or less.
There are already 17 states under $2.75 a gallon, so we're on our way. Average is about $2.84, so if oil is at $75 now, cut that in half, $37.50, and presto, average gallon of gas in the US is $1.42, and, no, it does not have to go back up. There's no law, physical or otherwise, that posits that prices must always rise.
Thanks to endless central bank meddling, the world's economies are deflating, and, with any luck, the governments will deflate as well, or die.
This is just the start of what should have happened in 2008-09. The past 6 years have been a complete farce, designed only to keep stocks up and the rich richer. The essential problem is that if the economy collapses, what happens to incomes and pensions?
Well, kids, they get cut, too. In the end, it should be a wash. If your average cost of living falls by 40%, you need 40% less money to live. The heck with the public pension plans with $100,000+++ retired cops and teachers. They'll be happy campers at $60+ with lower prices for everything.
Morons are everywhere, but most of them live and work in state and national capitols (DC and NYC have the highest percentages, for sure). Fuck them. Stop the consumer shit. Save, don't spend. Let everything drop in price. Deflation is wonderful so long as the government and economists GET THE FracK OUT OF THE WAY.
There's just one kicker: The cost of nearly everything will decline, except housing. Anybody who bought before 2008, or after, thinking they were getting a bargain, will once again be upside-down.
Get ready for housing crash, part two!
(Best part about it is that the Fed now owns most of the worthless MBS paper.)

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