Not only were the past two days of trading tough on short-term tacticians, but the charts from the past four days - only one of which, Monday, produced a positive close - illustrate just how nasty the market has been to those convinced that buying dips is a profitable strategy as every bounce higher was met with engaged selling, marked generally by lower highs and lower lows.
Since it's the middle of earnings season, bets are being laid down on expectations or post-reporting euphoria or derision, but most trades have ended up in tatters, as the mood has shifted quite forcefully to pessimism over everything from the coronavirus to failed stimulus talks to presidential politics. Astute traders are sensing that nothing is being done in Washington prior to the election unless it's a political event, such as the Supreme Court nomination of Amy Coney Barrett. Deadlines and ultimatums on the Covid relief package have turned out to be mostly false bravado and not even good negotiating tactics.
Anyone believing that there's going to be a stimulus bill forthcoming prior to the election - now a mere 12 days off with early voting already well underway - must have overlooked the jabbering and back-and-forth nattering that's been a feature of Washington politics since July (and, for the truly cynical, forever). The stimulus bill is a can that anticipates and enjoys being kicked down the road by any kind of shoe, Republican or Democrat.
Even if, in the extremely improbable case that a bill does manage to sneak through both the House and Senate and reach the president's desk within the next few days, nobody is going to get a check or direct deposit until well after November 3rd, despite promises - like with the first round - that the money will be going out "right away."
In Washington, "right away" generally means after the next recess or at least three weeks into the future and beyond, unless, of course, you're a Wall Street firm, hedge fund, or airline company seeking bailout booty. If the legislators in DC were employed as wait-people, clerks, or messengers, they wouldn't last a week before being fired.
Since the current posture on both sides appears to be one of not giving in to even the most severe prodding to get a deal done and the second round stimulus bill likely already priced into many market models, any stimulus bill passed will have little to no lasting effect on stocks. There are a plethora of other, more pressing issues facing up to the wall of worry that is the stock market that make coronavirus relief a second rate passenger on the road to ruin.
At 8:30 am ET, another 787,000 people filed initial unemployment claims, futures are off the bottoms put in overnight, as though something uplifting is about to happen. Meanwhile, the mainstream media cabal continues to refuse to report on the unfolding Joe and Hunter Biden graft, corruption and bribery scandal, all the while scaring the bejeezus out of the viewing public with warnings about a third wave of COVID-19 infections, cases, hospitalizations, deaths and the toll it is taking on health care workers, teachers, kids, and even pets.
The mainstream meadia has been consistent above all else in reporting anything even remotely negative about President Trump while ignoring any indications that he is drawing enormous crowds at rallies and that his administration continues to work on important issues such as immigration and Middle East peace.
While Kamala Harris spoke to a "crowd" of what looks like about a dozen "supporters" in Asheville, North Carolina, President Trump held a rally for thousands of cheering, enthusiastic supporters in Gastonia, NC. (full videos below, judge for yourself)
The contrast in crowd size and enthusiasm is stunning, putting the accuracy of the mainstream polls into question and reminiscent of scenes from 2016, when Hillary Clinton was supposed to sweep the nation to victory and instead Donald J. Trump shocked the sold out media.
The media circus stopped being amusing last week when Twitter and Facebook began banning stories from the New York Post that were damaging to Joe Biden and became a national emergency because their censorship effort was quickly reinforced by all of the major media outlets, including the New York Times, Washington Post, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, CNN, and FOX. If the media enjoyed using the word "collusion" in their non-stop fake news reporting over the Trump-Russia hoax, they're going to hate it when American citizens and hopefully a court of law takes up the same term in referring to their election interference efforts, not just in this cycle, but from 2016 as well.
The American public may be a lot of things, but they are certainly capable of discerning - after plenty of obfuscation and misinformation - when they are being deceived. The mainstream press has been lying, prevaricating, and amplifying anti-Trump messaging so consistently for the past five years (and longer), that people are tuning it out. Those Democrats and left-leaning individuals who still feel a need to get rid of the current president and replace him with a crooked, demented, sick individual like Joe Biden have to be checking their morals at the polling station door and selling their worthless souls to the devil.
That's why there's mail-in and absentee voting. It makes impossible decisions palatable, unseen, and quickly forgotten.
All the time Joe Biden cowers in his basement, millions of early voters are trying desperately to forget what they've already done, quietly hoping that their votes will be repudiated come November 3rd and their worst fears - that they've elected a serial criminal to the highest office in the land - will not be realized.
BTW: The final presidential debate is Thursday night at 9:00 pm ET. It will be carried by the major networks and should likely provide more talking points for each candidate and little more. It's time to go to the polls and start counting the votes.
This will soon be over, though the aftermath may be even more unsettling than what the country has been though the past eight months.
Kamala Harris in Asheville, NC:
President Trump in Gastonia, NC:
At the Close, Wednesday, October 21, 2020:
Dow: 28,210.82, -97.97 (-0.35%)
NASDAQ: 11,484.69, -31.80 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 3,435.56, -7.56 (-0.22%)
NYSE: 13,040.13, -52.03 (-0.40%)
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